“Police has maintained it won’t hesitate arresting opposition leader Col Kiiza Besigye if he insists causing commotion in the city center. This is in response to the preventive arrest that police applied on him this morning when he insisted that he was driving to the city center with out notifying the police. Police publicist says this was un-called for and this forced the police to arrest him” (WBS TV, 2016).
Today isn’t a normal day. Today is a day where it’s reviled after hazardous consulting meetings in Soroti and Jinja that a certain high caliber politician has switched sides. Amama Mbabazi is not any longer a Presidential Candidate in the NRM, but is becoming a part of the of opposition coalition The Democratic Alliance (TDA).
A man who had a special thing and now has gone from being the guy who has a vital part of the chambers in parliament, also and secretary of the party of the NRM party for years has gone into the lion’s den together with the opposition yesterday.
It proves the powerful idea behind FDC, JEEMA, DP, and UPC, so they are now accepting the brother into the camp when the internal parties has already picked their flag-bearers for the presidential election in 2016. He went from being a vital part of the NRM, a man Museveni trusted. Even if Mbabazi is famous for eating big slices of governmental deals and have even chartered high on corruption indexes, they are still letting him in the fold and umbrella of the TDA. This must be joyful reunion for Hon. Gilbert Bukenya who has trades silver coins from the CHOGM scandal in the past. Olara Otunnu knows the man well and has discussed matters concerning Mbabazi in length in the past. The same has Norbert Mao they all know him and how he has acted. As the public knows as well!
Well, so when the tides are turning and the opposition can prove greatness, while the NRM is losing ground. They still have the powerful army and police on their hand. We will sure see more teargas and venues in towns being under siege before the election in 2016. Since we’re still in the run-up! While we waiting we know that the ones that went independent earlier from NRM, might run back to fold to get feed and be underline of the main stem leadership protocol of the party. Though it seems that the fallout rate and big-men that has been around for ages is on the level of agony that Louis Van Gaal in Manchester United doing. Where certain former loved players has all left the club. Now the same is happening with the NRM. Though it is happens in other fashions and ways, but initially the same outcome. There consistency of harsh brutalities and the way people are getting out of the NRM, it doesn’t seem healthy.
You’re either forced out with the skin on your teeth or you’re getting flogged in the main streets of Any-Town in Uganda. Amama Mbabazi I wrote earlier this year that he was starting a walk through the desert. He finally has found shade in the midst of darkness. The campaign he will run now will not be affiliated with the party he has been involved in for so long. This has been the end of it. He lost when he questioned the power of the man on the top, that man would not accept somebody questioning the fact and realities of one sole candidate before preliminary voting inside the party. H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni would not have JPAM or Amama Mbabazi questioning his powers and reach, nor anybody else for that matter. That is why when other people are campaigning in the lands. The government bodies for securing peace will make fuzz and be violent against the crowds. We have seen all year from the campaigning of Dr. Kizza Besigye and recent attacks in eastern Uganda in Soroti and Jinja.
It shows that there are no nobility amongst the cadres of NRM especially when you look at the way they leave their people behind. There so many reasons for the end game of certain long serving politicians seems like their left to rot after being loyal subjects and done all in favor of the mighty president.
So yesterday’s signing of TDA protocol proves a vital point and strength of this unity. Also of the fallout of Amama Mbabazi was inevitable after the clippings of his wings in not so distant past. Which lead to his childhood friend Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda taking over his position as the PM. That was for the big-man on top fearing the issue of aspirations that Amama might have of one day wishing to succeed the fellow leader on the throne. Something that we all know isn’t acceptable by the sole candidate in 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and to come in 2016.
We will see what outcome and reach this symbolic turn of events will have. Though this signing of Protocol from Amama Mbabazi should by just the signature on the paper, strengthen the movements of the opposition since they have yet another former weapon-brother of the mighty Museveni.
This also leaves Mbabazi after months into wilderness and without shade, finally getting a gracefully sit-down with fellow peers. Who has for years and decades been under the scrutiny of regime that Mbabazi has partly put into effect especially with Public Order Management Act, which will always hunt him! Like a now evil ghost that was built to suppress anybody who wasn’t directly coordinating their movement with the government of Uganda, this is initially the cronies of the NRM.
So there we have it! TDA with Dr. Kizza Besigye, Olara Otunnu, Norbert Mao, Asuman Basalirwa and so on has now Amama Mbabazi in their ranks. They can soon be sitting together in the lion’s den and plotting their next move.
We can all wonder what this will say about the issues and coming elections while the parties themselves has picked flagbearers, who will be the main candidate of the alliance and the TDA. Will be race to follow and also see how the come-up to the 2016 in the end will be looking because if it follows the start, it will be violent and dangerous to be at other rallies then ones run by Museveni and his cronies. The rest will have to wear gas-masks and heavy gear to not taste rubber bullets of the police force and the rulings from the local DPC. Peace.
Yet another day in the wilderness for Amama Mbabazi, the former weapon brother of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni who wishes to surpass him and become the president of the country from 2016. The reports saying even though Amama Mbabazi has sent in all the forms and letters recommended by the Electoral Commission, still the UPF harass the rally or consultation that was held on the Boma Ground.
Amama’s dream said in Seibei yesterday:
“It gives me great pleasure to be here with you today. I have come here on a consultative tour because I have a dream of becoming a president of this country” (…)”Kaguta Museveni has served us as a country and we as NRM have done well for the last 30 years but you see you still have some serious problems like poor education, poor roads, hospitals and land grabbing” (…)”Some people are saying that I have never visited the Sebei region but this is the first area I visited after we captured power in 1986 and the whole stretch is a food basket. You have the capacity to grow enough wheat to meet the demand of Uganda but because of roads you cannot” (Kay, 2015).
The Electoral Commission says about Mbabazi’s meeting plans:
The Secretary of the Electoral Commission Sam Rwakojo says: “Presidential aspirant can only hold consultative meetings but not public rallies” (…)”so what Amama Mbabazi is doing wrong” (…)”We advice presidential aspirants to carry out nation-wide consultations as provided by law not campaigning at rallies” (Insider, 2015).
Reports from official sources:
“Angry residents did not only pull down President Museveni’s campaign posters off buildings and poles along Soroti streets but also dared security operatives in running battles following Police’s disruption of Amama Mbabazi’s rally today” (…)”Police was able to disperse the residents from the Sports Ground, they started pelting the officers with stones. The residents later regrouped and managed to cut off a team of about 30 Police officers at Soroti Sports Grounds and threatened to lynch them. The officers pleaded for their lives saying they were only following orders from above” (Kisakye, 2015).
The teargas arrived. Even if it is out of date!
Reason given by Gen. Kale Kayihura:
“Huge numbers on the independence grounds (Soroti public gardens) will destroy the grass, which will cost the municipal spent large sums of money to grow”.
Fred Enage the Police Spokesman to the New Vision via Soundcloud reports today:
“The respective territorial commanders edicted and other DPCs to ensure that to police the numbers that are actually involved. If there are a hundred, if there are a thousand. What is important is that the venues are efficient to accommodate the supporters who are going to be consulted. Is it a clear place? Does it have the consent of the owner of the venue? If it is outside a town hall then we have to assure that it have time-limits to 7 am to 7 pm. If it is within the town hall then its continues” (Nsuguba, 2015).
Kay, Julius – ‘I have a dream of becoming president—Mbabazi’ (09.09.2015) link: http://crooze.info/i-have-a-dream-of-becoming-president-mbabazi/
Kisakye, Frank – ‘Anger in Soroti as Police disperses Mbabazi supporters’ (09.09.2015) link:
Nsubuga, Benon – ‘DPCs to monitor Mbabazi meetings’ (07.09.2015) link: http://www.elections.co.ug/new-vision/election/1000522/dpcs-monitor-mbabazi-meetings
The Insider – ‘EC declares Mbabazi rallies illegal’ (08.09.2015) link: http://www.theinsider.ug/ec-declares-mbabazi-rallies-illegal/
When you have been in charge for a long time and no strategies to secure your position, it might be natural start campaigning as a politician with the results and the achievements that been made. A good politician would address the public with the progress and build on what has already been built. But this long term politician and president Yoweri Kaguta Museveni doesn’t do that in the run-up to the presidential election in 2016. Instead, He uses a whole other tool to bring the masses and secure his position in the country. His words are fearmongering and sectarianism, and that only he can keep order of the army. Which can’t be true and doesn’t look wise of a supposed statesman of his caliber, instead he speaks to his fellow countrymen like they need his guns and rigging to be sure of security. These quotes will show from July to August this year of how he speaks of his own regime and the necessary firepower for his reign.
President Museveni said in the 16th of May through the statehouse channel that “I have been involved in the politics of Uganda for 51 years and I have experienced the cost of the politics of lies. So please I advise you to avoid them and stop misleading the population. I have heard some people use bad words like National Resistance Movement is bad for West Nile. Such a statement is poisonous and dangerous for national unity and development” (…) “When we overthrew Idi Amin ourselves, the Uganda People’s Congress with the support from Tanzania, we pleaded with the UPC leaders not to punish the people of West Nile because of the mistakes of Amin as an individual. The UPC leaders did not listen to us and instead imported criminality in West Nile because it was Amin’s home area leading to many deaths and forcing almost all West Nile people into exile in Sudan and DRC” (…) “I drove to Kaya myself near Oraba in Sudan when we had come into leadership and met two families. I asked them if they were Ugandans and they said yes and I asked them what they were doing in Sudan and the message went on. The others followed and today West Nile which was abandoned is one of the most populated areas of Uganda. So politicians please stop meddling in lies, just like the Bible puts it; say the truth it will set you free” (Uganda Statehouse, 2015).
According to him on the 21th July 2015: “We have built a strong army but it’s not a dictatorship and needs a well founded and clear headed leadership to be sure that the country’s future is safe. Even if you have a strong army without clear political leadership you can’t guarantee national peace and transformation therefore value your vote because it counts” (…) “We took a leadership decision to strengthen the army against the wishes of many other players because we had realized that insecurity was bred out of the weaknesses in the army and by 2003 we had defeated Kony and you can see the development taking place in Northern Uganda. We have totally defeated Allied democratic forces and arrested their leader Jamil Mukulu who should tell us why they have been killing Ugandans and they can never attack Uganda because they will pay a heavy price” (Waswa, 2015).
On 24th of June he said: “There is peace in Uganda. No one has the capacity to destabilize Uganda” (Uganda Media Centre, 2015).
The President said on 31th July 2015: “We have built a strong army but it’s not a dictatorship and needs a well founded and clear headed leadership to be sure that the country’s future is safe. Even if you have a strong army without clear political leadership you can’t guarantee national peace and transformation therefore value your vote because it counts” (Lutaaya, 2015).
On the 5th of August he said: “he historical agreed that as a way forward, I come and pick these nomination forms and I offer myself for the position of party chairman and NRM presidential candidates for the period 2015-2021” (Omara, 2015).
The President even said on 6th August: “No one should poison your minds with wrong ideology based on tribe” (…) “If evidence is adduced, your victory will be annulled.” (…) “Leaders should be chosen based ability on to uplift the standard of living of the people not on ethnicity” (…) “We defeated ADF and ensured peace. Leadership premised on tribes will destabilize the area” (Ayiswa, 2015).
On his own web page, he quoted on 6th of August: “Let leaders tell you what they want to do for you and their usefulness and leave your tribes because all tribes and people were created by God and none of us created any person. Not even the children that I have and all of you. We are not our own creation. We are all gifts from God; so don’t divide God’s people” (…) “I am not campaigning but when time comes, I will come here and tell you that NRM defeated rebels and brought peace to this region and I will ask you to vote NRM on those grounds not on tribal or religious basis because sectarian politics is evil. Uganda is peaceful, united and developing and nobody should divide Ugandans and spoil all the gains the country has realized” (Museveni, 2015).
Other part of his campaign:
He even sent messages to the people; the President had to send his message to the people literally. Even sent SMS to all the people owning phones in the country, and it wasn’t just to NRM members, but all the telecoms users of their service like the once using Airtel (Kaaya, 2015).
Now, here is a gist!
How the Police keeps the posters of the President on the walls everywhere:
Fred Enaga said: “The president is the fountain of honour and he enjoys absolute immunity for whatever actions and enjoys structural advantages. You cannot just pull down his pictures under whatever circumstances” (…) “But even then, he has not come out to make such pronouncement (that he will run in the 2016 presidential elections),” (Tumwine, 2015).
How his army men fears him or misunderstood love:
Army Chief Brig Elly Kayanja says: “I am fully aware of the regulation that stops us (soldiers) from engaging in partisan politics but personally, I cannot hide my love and loyality to NRM and to President Museveni”. Vincent Bamulangaki Ssempijja says this: “We fear Museveni so much because he was our bush war leader, so we cannot just easily talk to him” (…) “When he (Museveni) comes to a cabinet meeting, we discuss issues of government and, after that, none of us get the chance to talk to him. Its very few amongst us who can call him, and likewise, he also calls a few of us” (TheInsider.ug, 2015).
All of this sectarianism treats isn’t strong enough to put a kettle on and see if the water is boiling. Because that`s what he is said that if you vote for something else then his, then your diffusing and voting actual ethnic reasons then NRM. Which we all know by now is a bit foolish, even though a party has their strongholds in the country. That is normal anywhere in the world. Certain parties have a stronger vibe in one area than the next because of the leadership of the party in that area and the public will recognize that they have. So that isn’t sectarianism, more given credit to the locals that are credit due.
The security issue that he continues to ponder on that, isn’t un-suspected. In other part of the country it’s all that he has to show for while being in power. So that he also uses the strong-man and big-man has to control the UPDF and the army to keep things secure isn’t something that should come as lightning on a clear sky, instead should be as visible as rainwater in the streets after a rain-shower. It is true that the current president is the reason why the UPDF and UPF are so strong and also as massive as it is. But he can’t believe his own words that he is the ONLY leader who got the power to command this brigades, right? If so, then he has lost his plot. That he is the sole reason for the peace in the Northern Uganda and also that the ADF has lost it strength over time, also their main leader which is now having court-time for his actions. I am sure that their more than one person who should get credit, also the support from SPLA and FARDC to push LRA into C.A.R. where the UPDF is still continuing the hunt. That the generals in the UPDF admire and fear their commander in chief isn’t unexpected though they are kind of over the line when even the president himself has said earlier that UPDF generals should not join into politics and they obviously do!
And that he drops gig songs isn’t new. I will not discuss the second song from the President (since I, myself is not a big fan). That is utter nonsense. But what is worthy of the campaign is the SMS sent to all the ones with SIM-cards for certain companies and not only for NRM members. That means that the President has bought the airtime and lists of numbers that the company has and maybe even violated its nation privacy laws. No matter what laws you have it’s a shady way of spreading your own vision to world. Isn’t it enough that they print your own views day in and day out in the New Vision?
A Timeline for how the Police and other institutions have gone after the opposition in the recent months before the 2016 elections:
The Amama Mbabazi planned to start his campaign and have demonstrations on the 15th of June as a “Presidential Aspiration” in the NRM party in Kampala. The day before the Press Secretary of Uganda Police Fred Enanga that if Amama Mbabazi did so it would be: “Therefore, whoever is involved in organizing the demonstrations, or intends to participate in them will be in violation of the law, and will face criminal sanctions in accordance with the law”. IGP Kale Kayihura sent a letter preceding that the Amama Mbabazi campaigning that he needed to be careful about holding public meetings as a presidential aspiration on the 23rd of June. On the 24th of June a letter from the Mbabazi lawyers addressing the IGP Kale Kayihura wasn’t correct according to the law. Because a person in the NRM party should be allowed to ‘run’ for the “Presidential Aspiration” and hold public meetings to gain more popularity for his elections.
Even on the 8th of July the Uganda Communication Commission and their Executive Director Godfrey Mutabazi who wrote to all Medias in Uganda that they have to be careful with the messages and what kind of voices they spread to the press either if it is radio, tv, newspapers and other formats. On the 9th of July Dr. Kizza Besigye was arrested by the UPF when going from Kasangati in Wakiso Disctrict when he was supposed to start his political campaign for his presidential front runner for the FDC. He was admitted on a “preventative arrest” from the Police. Even the Insepctor General of Police Mr. Okot-Ochola on 13th of July wrote a warning letter the FDC on their public meetings and explaining to them how the “Public Order Management Bill” works.
“Team Amama Mbabazi for President 2016-2021” had one NRM Youth Leader named Vincent Kaggwa that lost his ranks and was missing from 18th of July until 20th of June because he wore a T-Shirt with Amama Mbabazi.
After rallies in Jinja and Iganga on the 21st of July, Dr. Kizza Besigye was supposed to have an interview on Radio Baba/87.7 Basogo Baino FM. Only minutes into it the transmitter for the radio station was turned off by the government. On the 8th of August Dr. Kizza Besigye was not allowed to travel from his home and into a meeting at the American embassy in Kampala.
Even in Lira when FDC and Dr. Kizza Besigye had a rally in town. The police was all over town held the town under Siege the whole of 10th of August. In Padre the day after the FDC wasn’t able to hold a decent rally in the 11th of August the local police took the microphone from one of the FDC leaders holding it and Dr. Kizza Besigye wasn’t able to hold at the venue, instead the police went mad and trough tear-gas and beat the people attending. On the 14th of August the Lord Mayor of Kampala DP Erias Lukwago was blocked to attending as a speaker on a seminar on the Makerere University.
I have no plan of going into too deep waters with this time line. Since this is a picturesque and historical how the progression of the police and other institutions are going after the opposition parties and those who are going against him as the flag-bearer and presidential candidate in the NRM party. It’s obvious that it’s nearly daily for months now that the regime has tracked and gone against those who isn’t following the president and NRM regime, even if the comply to the rules and laws of the Public Order Mangement Bill/Act, still they will be incriminated or threaten and violate common sense with sending troops with tear-gas and beating people up for showing up to FDC rallies. Then also to top it all off they have without being judged in court taken people to custody for wearing a Team Amama Mbabazi shirt in Kampala. This should be seen as something foolish and not as actions of rule of law. The fear the president is spreading with his words and actions is astonishing.
With being in this day and age we should expect of something else of our presidents and prime ministers. This is a leader he has been educated back in the day, though seem to forget the lessons he had learned there. In his thesis written about Frantz Fanon he wrote: “The process of creating the subjective conditions is as hard as the organising of revolution itself. However, it can be accelerated by various devices. The most important thing is to win confidence of the masses. It is necessary for all the local cadres or ‘terrainers’ as they sometimes called, indeed for all the activists that seek to enlist support of the masses, to lead a pure, exemplary and, most preferably, ascetic life. The person seduce peasents’ wives or daughters, will never win the confidence of the masses. Though personal example, political propaganda – in the simplest language about the simple and, to begin with, parochial problems – and through demonstrating the power of the people vis-à-vis the enemy, the cadres are able to create the subjective conditions, a fully and politically conscious people, that are indispensable for the revolution” (Museveni, 1971).
When he could write this and stand behind this words while being a student and seeing how he comes with force and fear now. His mind can’t be the same as it was. We should expect something else from somebody that makes the population either eat the fear or he actually never won “the confidence of the masses”. The president has surely forgotten these words while he stated in his speeches and outlets during start of his campaign for Uganda Presidential Election in 2016. That the Police Spokesman is saying that people don’t have the right to take down posters from the walls. He should already know that it’s not right how he speaks and acts. Generals are even afraid of him. Even quoted some members of the MPs who feels the same when he is around! So he is not the example he supposed to be anymore. So if the people are politically conscious they should by his own-old-selves be able to brush his fears off, right?
And also the speeches and daily acts against opposition should be addressed by bigger multilateral institutions and nations so that this “so called” and “multiparty democracy” isn’t really an actual state of affairs the country and republic of Uganda should be proud of. The way that the NRM regime is hurting its radios and newspapers, how it goes against the FDC leaders and certain DP leaders. Even though who’s has become independent and not dependent on the “Mzee” or the President of Museveni. It’s the same natural and calm level of fear that the president Museveni are both speaking in his speeches and acting out with the UPF and the UPDF. If this is his way to regain his popular stance somebody or even a presidential advisor! The Presidential Advisor should ask him behind closed doors “have you lost the plot?”
Ayiswa, Issa – ‘Museveni warns those pedaling sectarian talk risk losing seats (06.08.2015) link: http://www.ofuganda.co.ug/articles/20150806/museveni-warns-those-pedaling-sectarian-talk-risk-losing-seats#sthash.TgvP4A2E.dpuf
Kaaya, Sadab Kitatta – ‘Uproar over unsolicited Museveni campaign SMS’ (10.08.2015) link: http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/39174-uproar-over-unsolicited-museveni-campaign-sms
Lutaaya, Henry – ‘Museveni exploits incumbency ahead of 2016’ (31.07.2015) link: http://www.sunrise.ug/news/201507/museveni-exploits-incumbency-ahead-of-2016.html
Museveni, Yoweri – ’Sectarian politicians to be arrested, prosecuted” – Museveni’ (06.08.2015) link: www.yowerikmuseveni.com/news/%E2%80%9Csectarian-politicians-be-arrested-prosecuted%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%93-museveni#sthash.aJNiX7oP.dpuf
Museveni, Yoweri – ‘FANON’S THEORY ON VIOLENCE: ITS VERIFICATION IN LIBERATED MOZAMBIQUE’: which was an essay/thesis in “Essays on the Liberation of Southern Africa”, Tanzania Publication House (Released in 1971).
TheInsider.ug – ‘Army Chief, minister confess love, fear for Museveni’ (05.08.2015) link:
Tumwine, Albert – ‘We cannot pull down Museveni posters- Police’ (16.07.2015) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/We-cannot-pull-down-Museveni-posters–Police/-/688334/2753854/-/lr6i1x/-/index.html
Omara, Chris – ‘The journey to 2016 and beyond under Gen Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (YKM)’ (05.08.2015) link: http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/671825-the-journey-to-2016-and-beyond-under-gen-yoweri-kaguta-museveni-ykm.html
Uganda Media Centre – ‘“No one has capacity to Destabilize Uganda” (24.07.2015) link: http://www.mediacentre.go.ug/news/%E2%80%9Cno-one-has-capacity-destabilize-uganda%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%93-president-museveni#sthash.9ovML4Po.dpuf
Uganda Statehouse – ‘President Museveni warns politicians on lies and sectarianism’ (15.06.2015) link: http://www.statehouse.go.ug/media/news/2015/05/15/president-museveni-warns-politicians-lies-and-sectarianism
Waswa, Sam – ‘Museveni: UPDF Needs Clear-headed Political Leadership’ (21.07.2015) link: http://chimpreports.com/museveni-updf-needs-clear-headed-political-leadership/
In this day and age we have peoples in power who wish to stay there. They stay in power on overtime. They change the constitution and amendments to make sure that they can get re-elected. The irony is that many of this leaders accepted when they came into power the new constitutions and laws. After a while and their terms running out they have to switch the laws for their own purpose. The laws are supposed to be for the best of their countries and not one person or party. Therefore you see reactions in these nations as they see that their leaders continue at any cost. This makes people to react like they did in DRC in January while Joseph Kabila opted for a third term. The coup in Burundi was another type of reaction to their president Pierre Nkurunziza changed the law so he could run for a third term. Also the public reacted to it. It’s also happening in Rwanda where the RPF and their president Paul Kagame will change laws so he can run for a third term. They are following the suit of President Museveni in Uganda. Who came to power with the rifles in 1986 and made a constitution in 1995. And abolished the term limits in 2005. And is soon running again in 2016, in this piece I will describe the position of the countries land by land in the East Africa. This is from Burundi to Uganda.
In the end of April in 2015 the Constitutional Court made an amendment that gave CNDD-FDD party flagbearer Pierre Nkurunziza an possibility to stand as a president for the third term. His first term was he selected by the parliament and not the people in 2005, the second term he was elected through elections in 2010. So this spring the President made moves to secure power again and break with the Arusha Agreement to secure himself more years as president of Burundi. There was supposed to be an election after the new amendment was passed this year. Parts of the military went on a coup d’etat when the President Nkurunziza was in Tanzania on an EAC conference. The Coup was squashed quickly. But the protest has continued. The election has been postponed. There has been refugees going to DRC, Tanzania and Rwanda following the protest against a third term for Pierre Nkurunziza. But the opposition and the protest against the third term has not stopped in the country since the last election. The violence between government army and the protesters are continuing. And the official election for his third term is still to come.
Democratic Republic of Congo:
In Democratic Republic of Congo the son of the late assassinated Laurent-Desire Kabila, Joseph Kabila has been in charge since 2001. His first election was won in 2006. Already in 2011 he got won the election the second time. Now since the spring Joseph Kabila has worked on making sure he could get a third term. There been responses from opposition and NGOs. #Telema protest happened in January when the draft for third term was made. Still been silence from the government since then. But there has been movement again during late summer and July.
In Kenya they got a new constitution in 2010. The constitution specifies that the President have a certain limit of two terms. The last President of Kenya was Mwai Kibaki he led the country from 2002-2007. He won the second election in 2007 that lasted to 2013. In 2013, some issues from the opposition to the winning election of Uhuru Kenyatta the son of the first president of the newly independent Kenya Jomo Kenyatta. So the Supreme Court handled the case and gave Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Alliance their stamp on the first term for him. There are no current plans of changing the 2010 constitution to abolish or change the levels of terms for presidents in Kenya.
In Rwanda the RPA came to power after the genocide in 1994. After this the RPA became RPF is Rwandan Patriotic Front from the former Rwandan Patriotic Army. Paul Kagame was the Vice-President until 2000 when the National Assembly and government ministers elected him as president. In 2003 a new constitution came to force. Paul Kagame was relected in that year. Second election was in 2010 where he won in a landslide. Now he is working on tweaking the constitution to fix it so that Paul Kagame and the RPF can in power yet another term after next election.
Tanzania has a special place after Julius Nyerere was in charge of the country since independence from 1964 to 1985. The Constitution of Tanzania is from 1977. That says that the president can only be in charge for two terms of 5 years each. After Julius Nyerere reign this has been followed. The party that he started is still running the country. First was president after Nyerere was Ali Hassan Mwinyi from 1985 to 1995. After him came Benjamin Mpeka from 1995 to 2005. The recent President is stepping down Jakaya Kikwete after taking his two terms from 2005 to 2015. In the next election the Party of the Revolution (CCM) has choice been on the new president candidate John Magufuli. President Kikwete will not be like his neighbors who try to stay in power and make amendments to the constitution.
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni came to power after a coup d’etat in 1986 to overthrow of Obote II and the interim government of Tito Okello who came with an army of rebels from Tanzania with support of Julius Nyerere. This was the NRA (National Resistance Army) who later became the NRM (National Resistance Movement). After being in power a long time the new constitution came into being 1995. The first presidential election in a one-part state was in 1996. The same was in 2001. Both of these elections President Museveni won landslides in the county. To change so that President Museveni could be voted in again, the Parliament abolished term limits that year and also opened for multiparty elections. In 2006 the first multiparty elections under the new regime happen and Museveni won a landslide in the election. The next election in 2011 was reported to be rigged by the regime and President Museveni won with 68%.. Right now he is preparing for yet another term as president of Uganda. After running the country since 1986 and he has “won” 4 elections and is making ready for his fifth. This election is going to be held in February 2016 and the nation is already gearing up for the primaries as we speak. In both the NRM party and also the opposition, though the Public Order Management Bill is putting restraint on dissidents from the NRM.
(This post was updated on 21.07.2015 – because of some wrong information. Its now corrected). Peace.
Its healthy to be informed and here it from the them who is been accused again by the government of destroying public order. While their really trying to do just politicial actions to start campaigning as flag-bearers of the FDC and not ruin the nation. But the Mzee is thinking otherwise and shutting all oppisition down as expected since the rally for elections in 2016 has started. Peace.
This day we have a special announcement that Yoweri Kaguta Musveni isn’t the only presidential candidate in the NRM or National Resistance Movement Party (Walubiri, 2015). We all know that the other parties have gone together in a Democratic Alliance that happened on the 10.06.2015. This here will not be on that, but will be hard to separate from the latest revelation.
Now a new path will JPAM or Amama Mbabazi walk on the way to preliminary election to be the main candidate in the NRM. Though we all in our hearts now the end-game as long as Yoweri Museveni walks himself on mother earth. This will not be a real election. There will be certain speeches and balloting, but the end result will be in his favor, but in the party and nationally in the General Election of 2016.
We all who has followed them know that their former weapon brothers who have kept each other close. No one would deny that. If you have followed Amama Mbabazi you know he has scruples. This will be played in this power struggle. Not only use of UPF to get rid of campaign people for the Ex-VP. We all know that. There will be because of the Public Order Management Act (POMB) and 3 day rule. Some of us know that the powers want allow them to gather. Because that makes NRM into two vicious fractions: the ones supporting Museveni and the other supporting Mbabazi. Mbabazi has had strong support in the NRM Youth leaders who has endorsed him (Katusabe, 2015). Even today on the Uganda Youth Platform they endorsed him too. Their statement on facebook was: “We as members of uganda youth platform want to fustinctively thank Hon. Amama mbabazi upon his declaratin! This is good for the struggle to dislodge the dictatorship. Bravo”. So we sure know that Amama Mbabazi has a base. It’s surfacing.
But we all know the tricks of the grand master. He will not release and loose this at any price. I am sure he will pull out all of his election mechanisms and trades. That he has stocked up. Finally he will address all the scandals of Mbabazi. The reasons why hasn’t done that yet or done anything else then clipping his wings. It is because Museveni knows that if this all goes public, he can also shame him and put dirt on him as well.
After he sent him into a special exile we have all wonder what his step would be. Would he join forces with the opposition like FDC, UPC or DP? Be friendly to Gilbert Bukenya, Mugisha Muntu, Dr. Kizza Besigye or Olara Otunnu? No, he haven’t made any significant relationship with these people? No! He is going solo in the great party of Museveni.
The former weapon brothers are sudden “enemies” and wishing the big-chair at the Parliament. But there can only be one winner. No matter what kind of alliance the opposition parties and candidates they have against the NRM candidate. They will struggle and have hardships. The EC is often rigged. Dr. Kizza Besigye knows this. All of Uganda knows this. Even if FDC has won some by-elections in the past like recent the one in Amuru by-election 20th November when Lucy Akello won the seat there. But this is small fry compared to the real deal of going against the almighty chief. The boss that has been seated in-charge since 1986. The man who took power with the gun and after promised twice to step down. First was that he was supposed to retire after the 2001. Then he changed added an amendment to the constitution on 2005. So he could be elected again in 2006. And so is the saga until this day of today. We are now running towards the General election 2016 which happens to be 15 years after his first promise of retirement. And now Mbabazi will be into the fire and get with a goat in the desert.
He might have the endorsement from certain type of voters. Even inside of the party. But he will have to fight the man who “built” him and “let him be”. Now Museveni will do everything to discredit him. Take all kind of ammunition of corruption, nepotism and other misgivings that has happen since the NRM took power.
Now will Museveni does what he can, even if Mbabazi could drop knowledge on him, because Mbabazi got a stamp okay to do it or even so, Museveni just let him do it in the past. Now that it will surface and the stink will be smelling for days. Mbabazi might even feel a bit alone at times. Because now Museveni will ask for loyalty, which means that those who are behind him will get paid, those that don’t will be shut out or shunned by the party. Just like the NRM Youth leaders who endorsed him. They lost their spot and positions. While those who stand by Museveni will prosper. That’s his system. In reality the Movement System has become a place of finding those who are loyal in the rural areas and does who will follow conformed message of the leadership without asking. They will over time get a piece for their contribution. Even if their lucky get their district shut in two so they can get more leadership funding and balance, last and least securing loyalty to the chief in the parliament in Kampala.
Therefore when you have a system built for loyalty to one man. Then a former fellow comrade, weapon-brother or friend goes against you. It will be a long road. Mbabazi will walk alone on this one. He will be burned in the desert. The sun will not leave much shade. Every piece of bad blood of his past will now crack open. I as many others know that he is a corrupt man. Museveni is a corrupt man. But you, I and the world should know that by now. And if you’re surprised by that fact then do a little research. You’ll find enough articles and examples on how corrupt this two are.
They will know fight though not in front of the public. This will be in the background and in the shadows. The dirt and dust will land in public. New Vision will come with all ammunition on the dirt of Mbabazi. They have already started today. The journey through the desert is just starting for Amama Mbabazi or JPAM. Museveni will trigger all kind of works from the NRM that we haven’t seen in ages. To take a little quote from point blank: “this will be bloody!”
Good luck on your journey through the desert. Hope it will not be like Moses and last for 30 years. Mbabazi doesn’t have that time. Might his daughter have that, but not him. Museveni will not give this up easy. This will be special and how it will play out is now coming. If Mbabazi is going to get the Erias Lukwago and Dr. Kizza Besigye treatment is not sure of. But I wouldn’t be surprised: if he will get house-arrest in the future and can’t drive out his block to a campaign in Wandegye in Kampala. Or have to postpone meetings with delegates who support him because he will break with law of POMB. Certain things will happen in due time while he is in the desert. Peace.
Video of statement from Amama Mbabazi:
Katusabe, Ruth & Bashime, Felix – ‘Three NRM youth leaders fired over links with Mbabazi’ (30.04.2015) Link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/NRM-youth-leaders-fired-links-Mbabazi/-/688334/2702094/-/6vcl1y/-/index.html
Walubiri, Moses – ‘Amama Mbabazi to run for president’ (15.06.2015) Link: http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/669767-amama-mbabazi-to-run-for-president.html