South Sudan: Have little faith in reviving ARCSS or the Peace-Agreement 2015, which is the new effort started by IGAD in Juba today!

It’s been a while since the ‘Compromise Peace Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan’ on the date 26^th August 2015, where the different parts of the South Sudanese conflict together with Ethiopian diplomats and IGAD secretariat made an inclusive agreement for all parties. This peace-agreement was short lived, as the stay of Dr. Riek Machar and his SPLM-IO wasn’t long in Juba. The months after the IGAD-Plus mediation after the Peace-Agreement fall apart in 2016. He came back in July 2016 to implement the Peace Agreement with the SPLA/M and President Salva Kiir Mayardiit. It was the same month the fires between Kiir’s guards and Machar’s guards that flared the skirmishes and the whole civil war between these war-lords.

The moments of peace in the new Republic has been short… nearly glimpse of hope of a new journey as a nation. The IGAD, JMEC and UNMISS have all been involved together with Troika of Norway, United States of America and United Kingdom, they have all set their provisions and their mandates to make the place better. Still, with all these organizations, multi-national organization, all sort of dialogue and extra-ordinary meetings in Ethiopia, Ugandan and in Kenya. Still, the measures haven’t added-up.

SPLM-IO is split in two fractions, different opposition rebellious groups tied down to bring down SPLA/M, the SPLM-IG, the President Kiir fraction by force and by will of the guns. That wasn’t there when the latest Peace Agreement in 2015 was signed and supposed to be implemented in 2016. Still, the IGAD are meeting today and tomorrow for yet another extraordinary meeting in Juba. Its like the Ethiopian and IGAD Secretariat tries to make themselves important and revive a dead agreement. It is sad to say the 2015 Agreement gone to the wind, but the blazing rifles and massive amounts of refugees should be powerful statement of misguided policies towards the Nation. It might have been done in good-will and with good-purposes. However, the War-Lords have not put the guns and tactics of the bush-wars.

The deserters and opposition forces are maneuvering, while the National Dialogue meetings are not for anything more than making more people loyal to the President. Since it is not involving all parties or all parts of the SPLM. That shows the intent of the Ugandan President Museveni who knows how war-games and shadow games work in politics. Therefore when I read statement from the Ethiopian government on the meeting, I am not hopeful:

“Dr Workneh Gebeyehu arrives at Juba Airport, South Sudan in the afternoon for talks on revitalization of the Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS) as per the decesion reached by the 57th extraordinary Session of IGAD Council of Ministers. Up on arrival Foreign Minister of the Republic of South Sudan Deng Alor Kuol warmly recieved his Ethiopian counterpart. Ambassador Fisseha Shawol and Staff members of Ethiopian Embassy in Juba also joined the occassion. Foreign Ministers of the Sudan and Djibouti are also in the Republic of South Sudan for the revitalization talk. The delegation led by Dr Workneh included State Minister Mrs. Hirut Zemene and Ambassador Shamebo Fitamo among others. IGAD led by Dr Workneh will meet the president of South Sudan and will have discussion with AU, UN, EU, Troika and other partners on the revitalization process of the peace accord” (The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, 23.07.2017).

So now two years after the 2015 agreement they want to breath life into the dead and after three days Jesus came-up from the dead, he walked out of the grave and walk into the desert. Well, the same will not happen for ARCSS, the rebels will not accept the power-structure and the possible interference from President Kiir. Seems like the foul play that has been done. Not that this only be the answer, all of the parties are not at the meeting in Juba. The foreign partners of the legit government SPLM-IG are sitting drinking coffee and tea, discussion provision and possible amendments passing the minutes and trying to figure out the troubling affairs. As the villages has been burned, the famines has hit areas and even corridors of food supplies has to come across the borders through Sudan to feed the hungry. This proves the volatile situation.

The IGAD meetings now, is in good spirit, but out of bound. Out of reach and doesn’t have the focus, just like the National Dialogue meetings at the Okello State in Entebbe, Uganda. They are with good intentions, but when all parties aren’t present, when all voices aren’t included and the rebels are running large, when the new groups are appearing will to risk it all to get rid of the Central Government. When reports that civilians are running and fleeing when government forces are coming, but giving food to rebels. Because the rebels shows more mercy than the forces supported by the President in Juba. You should know the are certain approaches and certain roads not taken…

There been many bridges burned, lot of water under the same bridge and even more more huts put on fire. The reality is these talks are not sincere, and will not been seen as honest efforts. When you have not engaged the whole specter of forces or voices, who uses guns and tactics to overthrow Kiir. There are not like in 2015, about SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO, now the situation are more complex and grown more dire. It isn’t just two elephants fighting and hurting the grass. So I am less than hopeful for the efforts done by IGAD, IGAD-Plus or any sort of body trying to intervene. Not because I don’t want peace.

If there is supposed to be real peace, there needs to be talk between all the ones who is hurt, all the ones who is someone and also the leadership of the rebels, armies and whatnot involved in the battles, done in the states, towns and villages. These ones cannot be silenced because the IGAD doesn’t recognize their effort to undermine international contribution, neither can National Dialogue if it is a sincere way of generating hope not include the SPLM-IO, but they don’t. It show lack of will and also wish of total control. Hope that the ones with biggest army and biggest fund will be able to sustain the warfare longer than the rebels. Peace.

IGP Kale Kayihura orders all Public Meetings concerning the Constitutional Amendment Act of 2017 have to notify the Police (21.07.2017)

CEPO South Sudan: IGAD FMs to meet in Juba over peace agreement implementation (19.07.2017)

Troika and EU Joint Statement on South Sudan (21.07.2017)

The text of the following statement was issued jointly by the Governments of the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Norway, and the European Union.

LONDON, United Kingdom, July 21, 2017 – The members of the Troika (Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and the European Union condemn the continuing violence in South Sudan, especially the Government of South Sudan’s current offensive against SPLM-In Opposition (SPLM-IO) forces near Pagak, as well as ongoing road ambushes and attacks by the SPLM-IO. The Pagak offensive is a clear violation of the unilateral ceasefire declared by President Salva Kiir on May 22, and calls into question the government’s commitment to reach peace through the National Dialogue, notwithstanding the sincere efforts undertaken by the leaders of the Steering Committee.

The Troika and EU repeat and endorse the June 12 call by the leaders of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for President Kiir to ensure that his forces respect the unilateral ceasefire, for the armed opposition groups to reciprocate the ceasefire, and for all groups to allow the unfettered delivery of humanitarian assistance to all those in need. We also welcome IGAD’s announcement of a High-Level Revitalization Forum for the South Sudan peace process. We call upon IGAD to expeditiously convene the Forum, and to include the current principal parties to the conflict. Likewise, we urge all parties to fully participate in the Forum. The Troika and EU agree with IGAD that the Forum should focus on achieving a ceasefire and resuming political dialogue that focuses on updating the agreement’s timelines and other provisions that are now obsolete in light of the expansion of conflict since 2015.

The proliferation of violence, displacement, and food insecurity renders any discussion of elections in the foreseeable future as an unnecessary diversion from the primary goals of achieving peace and reconciliation. South Sudan’s leaders, neighbors, and regional and international partners must first focus on achieving peace in order to create the conditions needed to hold credible elections. To achieve these urgent goals, we look forward to the prompt revitalization of an inclusive and credible peace process by IGAD; such progress would be required in order for the Troika and EU to commit further resources to institutions designed to implement the agreement.

Norbert Mao’s unique experience yesterday; how it opens up the question if it was a real arrest!

When I saw the Democratic Party President residing and discussing change on NBS Frontline, I was shocked, he were arrested in few hours before and the DP headquarters was supposed to be sealed off. What happen there from the morning and the start of the campaign against the abolishment of Article 102 (b) and it seemed fair that the Police did this. When knowing what it did to fellow opposition leaders in the Forum for Democratic Change.

“Arrested for launching campaign against Land And Age Limit Amendments. Our spirits and resolve are strong. The police should not manhandle our people who are constitutionally mandated to exercise their rights. Ugandans join us in the struggle” (Norbert Mao, 20.07.2017).

Well, what amaze me is that in the Police Station he was drinking Pepsi and waiting to be released, not looking bothered by the place he was in. The pictures speak for themselves; we have seen when others been arrested and how they feel. They look miserable and a bit fatigued. However, honorable Mao was just waiting for it soon to be over. There even been rumors that DP Youth and Activist came to his rescue and wanted him free. However, they were getting threats of arrests. So Mao told them to scatter and do not save him.

The whole in retrospect seems a bit strange, since the FDC leaders are still lingering together in the maximum prison of Nalufenya far from where they was arrested in and around Kasangati in Wakiso District. This clearly shows who the real opposition to the NRM are! Since the arranged detaining of Mao had no dire consequence. He could wash it off and spend time talking against Museveni again on NBS TV Frontline, like nothing happen earlier in the day.

Norbert Mao, the former harsh and real critic of Musevenism and the NRM, what have you done? How can this be, in one moment your acts and the parties acts get you into trouble, a few hours later your on stage discussing politics and debating on NBS. AIGP Asan Kasingye even said this: “we just accompanied him to police”. If it is so, then the whole ruckus was a forged and staged affair from both the authorities and the DP. This does not look good. To be clear it insightful to the place Mao has in the political landscape.

If a FDC leader and FDC President were to be detained, he would have been there to late night and any sort arrangement later in the day would have to be postponed, because the authorities would not care. They could even leave you behind bars so you do not get the opportunity to meet in court to answer for another of your crimes. That has happen and will surely happen again, especially since the NRM continues to use the Police Force for political gains!

So the play-play of the matter is still at large and how the outcome will be, if this was a façade or a real deal, I am not sure, because the interesting picture from the Police Station together with the Police Force spokesperson seems odd, in the sense that the fighting in the streets was real and the brutal arrests. However, the aftermath and the ease of getting out of there. Make the whole thing seem a bit strange. Not real, not genuine. The reality of the matter is very unclear.

Because the narrative is not that he got arrested, but the demonstration got squashed, he went on NBS TV and the FDC leaders are still lingering in jail for doing the same acts. This shows the double standard of the Police who with ease are throwing the FDC behind bars, but letting the DP President go. That is what is so rare and shows the reality of his position. The Good DP are so good and can therefore get away. However, if he was Bad DP he might have ended in the hospital.

These sorts of acts adds to the speculations and the arrangement of shadow deals done by the DP and the NRM. Since they are getting away and sipping soda at the Police Station, while the FDC are taken away in haste. Clearly, the reality and the perceived are playing games on you. The strangest of it is that the Police Force was not claiming it and brushing it off. While Mao was condemning the Police and hours later appearing with his usual grin on NBS Frontline. That is just rare and special. If this had happen to Besigye or even Muntu, the whole NRM would praise democracy, but alas it is not so.

This is just the state of affairs and what is beneath the surface is hard to know, but if it is rocks, dirt or oil. Who knows, but what we do know was this whole arrangement looks staged and sounds staged. It is just the matter of how deep the matter goes and who sanctioned it. Peace.

UPF Confirms the 56 FDC Leaders are arrested for “unlawful assembly” and detained at Nalufenya (20.07.2017)

Opposition Parties like FDC and DP have now dozens arrested because of their campaigns against the abolishment of 102 (b)!

President Museveni: “Those debating age limit, what are u debating? Who has brought that proposal? Don’t waste time with people who don’t have what to do” (NBS Televison, 19.07.2017).

You just know that the National Resistance Movement, their Police Force and the whole Republic are in all alert as if someone is ever thinking of campaigning against the abolishment of Article 102 (b), you will be detained and you will serve time. This is evident over the last few days and hours.

Yesterday, it is hard to count how many in the leadership of the Forum for Democratic Change, who were detained and shipped like rats to Nalufenya. Today the Democratic Party was about to start their campaign against the possible amendment of the law. Even Norbert Mao were detained. This prove even the “Good DP” can become “Bad DP” if you fight for the wrong cause. The cause being ushering in lifetime presidency of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Apparently, that is crime to stand against the man.

Just like during post-election in 2016, the Police has sealed of the DP Headquarters, similar to what they did to FDC. So we have seen these sort of acts of violence against free speech and liberty to participate in dialogue. The only ones allowed to act upon the article is the NRM members, NRM Youth and NRM organizers who can plan the possible amendment and the road map to do so! They can meet in restaurants and discuss, even come and talk about plans as if the NRM Youth did NBS TV. Clearly, the NRM stands above the law, since FDC and DP are under fire now for their involvement in the matter.

Well, if it is waste of time, why use resources to detain and arrest fellow citizens discussing it? While letting the internal party organization within the NRM do what they please and plan for the future of the abolishment. The hypocrisy and acts of violence against common sense is clear.

So now that both FDC are in midst of new court battles and trying to get both leaders, members and activists out of prison. The same acts has the DP to handle as well, since also their President was detained today for starting their campaign. You get clever insights into whose role really matters and who does not when you see who can talk and who has to look idly by like nothing. That is concerning since the state are viciously going against the ones asking for debate and trying to garn attention to the matter.

That is why the DP and FDC has such a few bad days. The last 48 hours have really proven the value of the NRM versus the rest. How the President lets the NRM do what they like, because they are all his minions, but the rest has to scatter. That is the true sense of it all and the end game seems to be, if you talk against the master. Expect to serve time at a prison facility. Because the NRM and the Police Force has no shame and no honor to bestow the man questioning the life presidency of Museveni. Peace.

Remember the MPs that supported the abolishment of Article 102(b)!

There are now several strong voice for the abolishment of the Article 102(b) in the Ugandan constitution. These fellow Members of Parliament (MPs) are all from the National Resistance Movement (NRM). They are Fred Mwesigye of Nyabushozi, Evelyn Anite of Koboko, Juliet Kinyamatama of Rakai, Peter Ogwang of Eastern Youth MP, Kenneth Omona of Keberamaido, James Kakooza of Kabula (Lyantonde District) and Ibrahim Abiriga of Arua. These voices are really explaining the need for change of it and wants to succeed. Surely, also the ever-loyal cadre Kahinda Otafiire, who was not even elected to the 10^th Parliament, will not accept scrutiny of the proposed amendment.

You also have others from the NRM praising their master and wanting to show support of the old man with the hat. These are David Mafabi, Stephen Othieno and Phoebe Namulindwa, who are saying it is positive to lift the age limit. Clearly, those all see themselves inside a money shower and hoping to cash in some strays.

What we can know by now, all of these people supporting life presidency of President Yoweri Kaguta Musveni, does so because they want to exchange the constitution for possible monetary gains. This is not done out of love for their country or patriotism. That ship has left port, those ideals they are sold and the dream is gain fortunes while in office.

Therefore, what the people can do is remember the ones who stood on the barricades and opened the barn door. Remember they do this because they are afraid of what happens when the Museveni era stops. Than they might have to try to get ordinary jobs and actually work for a living, not only doze off while begging for more state reserves and funds for their possible projects.

These MPs are hunting for goodwill from their master and hope he donate, they hope for Presidential Handshakes and personal meetings at the State House, where he can give needed support and balance their efforts. So that his or her star can rise and hope it means more than just be another crony!

These acts are just vile attempt for exhaustion and gain possible advantage, since they can show that to Museveni. We are loyal and we want you, nobody else can rule this glorious nation and no one has the skill like you. That is initially what they are all saying; just using other words and appeal differently. So he can repay for their efforts and their will to let him succeed.

Remember these MPs and the ones in their constituencies should not forget, so they should vote for whoever else standing against them in the next election. Since these people traded away governance and service delivery, they traded away the constitution and its principals for possible monetary gains. These people of the Parliament are the ones you cannot trust. Because they traded the principals of the constitution for a few coins of silver.

Let that be known and heard, let the radios speak ill of their names, let the TV-Debates criticize their legacy and their own status. They traded it all for personal gain, they was not there for their constituency, but for themselves.

They are hoping that a short con can earn itself in the long run. However, let it be known that it does not apply. The trade-off will be shortsighted and the earnings will be gone in wind. Peace.

Kid Rock’s Senate Race in 2018 in Michigan would be yet another celebrity into politics!

In a not to distant future the world has to all remember the legacy of men like reality star and real-estate supposed tycoon becoming President of the United States, that being Donald Trump winning the election in November 2016. That after a two year stint of campaigning and doing whatever he could become the Commander-in-Chief. That actually happen by all reach of margins off the electoral college and getting the position. So now in Michigan, there is seemingly a new type of race going to happen possibly between the Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow and against Republican Robert James Ritchie aka Kid Rock.

There are some different reports on Kid Rock’s candidacy, let’s look at them:

“At least since “Devil Without a Cause”—his breakthrough LP, from 1998, which sold more than eleven million copies in the U.S.—Kid Rock has self-styled as a patriotic iconoclast, a rebel cowboy on a rampage against anything effete, élite, or soft. He is particularly enraged by rules or customs that might be construed as infringements on personal freedom, such as the choice to meld rap and rock into a shouty, bullish pastiche. He did not invent the right-wing-outlaw archetype—he’s preceded, in music, by the rock guitarist and N.R.A. activist Ted Nugent, the country singer Hank Williams, Jr., and others—but he nonetheless revels in its actualization” (Petrusich, 2017).

“If Rock is really preparing to run for Senate, it’s news to the Michigan Republican Party. The Michigan GOP has “not had any contact with him at all,” spokeswoman Sarah Anderson said Thursday, “so I can’t speak to the validity of it.” Although the state party does not endorse in Republican primaries, potential candidates typically talk to GOP leaders and activists around the state before launching campaigns. Rock caused an uproar Wednesday when he tweeted a mock image of a political lawn sign and said his website is “absolute YES” for real” (Gerstein, 2017).

“He also responded to incumbent Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who’d tweeted, “I know we both share a love of music. I concede he’s better at playing guitar and I’ll keep doing what I do best: fighting for Michigan.” His take? “I concede she is better at playing politics than I am, so I’ll keep doing what I do best, which is being a voice for tax paying, hardworking AMERICANS,” said Rock, who hasn’t kept his Trump-supporting ideology under wraps” (…) “ The “Kid Rock for U.S. Senate” website diverts from the typical parameters associated with campaign-affiliated sites in a number of ways. For example, campaign sites must confirm that potential donors are U.S. citizens before completing any transactions” (Czachor, 2017).

Now that we see this, it wouldn’t be shocking in the state of affairs in the United States that Kid Rock would suddenly become a politician. There been certainly a dozen other public figures who became politicians in the United States, even Ronald Reagan was in commercials before becoming President. Therefore, the legacy of the American Democracy would not be destroyed, but would be more of a show. Since the President of the current day is a former reality star and that is showing in his persona.

That this would be a special election in Michigan and the state would certainly become galvanized by such a candidate. As the Democrats knows the volatile state after other election losses of late. Not that the Republicans are Teflon, since the scandals surrounding the President keeps them more hurt and less to show for in their time as majority. Especially considering the devastating legislation’s trough the Congress. This will not benefit a Republican candidate in Michigan and the rest of the Senate races, but a wild-card might help. Certainly, a Kid Rock would be a wild-card and would be something else. After a while, the public see what something does as President and they want to vote for safety instead.

Time will tell, if it is a PR Campaign, if it is real start of campaign as the settling with FEC to become candidate has to happen. Also where he disclose what needed to the state before becoming a candidate. Clearly, he needs also to connect with the Republican Party. If he is not planning to run as an independent. But then the musician turned candidate will work against the two biggest parties. Than, he can’t only run on his celebrity status, but has to show that he is a genuine candidate.

Time will tell if he is a real candidate, who will follow protocol and become a possible senator. If he decides to do so, then the Michigan race will be special for the Senate in 2018. Peace.

Reference:

Czachor, Emily Mae – ‘Kid Rock for U.S. Senate? ‘It’s not a hoax,’ he says. ‘It’s a strategy.’ (14.07.2017) link: http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-entertainment-news-updates-july-kid-rock-1500056630-htmlstory.html

Gerstein, Michael – ‘Kid Rock amps up Senate tease with expletives’ (13.07.2017) link: http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2017/07/13/kid-rock-senate-run-comments/103678072/

Petrusich, Amanda – ‘Kid Rock’s Senate Run Is a Terrifying New Normal’ (13.07.2017) link: http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/kid-rocks-senate-run-is-a-terrifying-new-normal

SSNCA orders the Internet Service Providers to block/ban several media houses in South Sudan!

Today Radio Tumazuj, Upper Nile Times, Nyamilepedia and Sudan Tribune has been blocked by Internet Service Providers in South Sudan. This has been done with provisions done by the South Sudan National Communication Authority. Also the director of South Sudan Broadcasting Company (SSBC) Adil Faris Mayat have been arrested for not properly broadcasting his speech earlier in the month. Clearly, the civil war between rebels and government has gone to a level where the reporting are taken as hostages and under threat. If they don’t comply with the government orders and message.

Certainly, the government cannot handle the reporting of the battles in the different provinces, the different comments and statements made by former SPLM/A personnel, who has fled to opposition forces. Secondly, the current famine and fleeing citizens show’s the lacking governance. Where even reported that villages flee when they hear the government army are coming. Instead, of fleeing when the rebels are coming and they are giving food to rebels. This show’s the concerning state of fights in different parts of South Sudan.

That President Salva Kiir Mayardiit and First Vice-President Gen. Taban Deng-Gai feels more alone, most been seen with the attempt to silence media reporting from the battle-lines. Foreign reports has also been banished and been taken out of service in the recent months for their expression of the current conflict. Clearly, the President and the regime cannot manage reporting on the situation. The lack of control from the Central Government and the problems of their conduct. Must be the reason for doing this. Since they want the message that are made correctly for the vision of the President.

All of the media has now to be gagged and silenced, this is worrying. That they can suspend the Internet Service Providers to see certain media houses and newspapers. Also, can arrest journalists and editors. Like it has done in the past. The SPLM/A has to man-up for their crimes and the violence that has been created, they have done lots of it and the same has the rebels. That is why the National Dialogue is currently useless as SPLM/A-IO under Dr. Riek Machar is not participating, which is run by Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. He is the weapon brother of the South Sudanese President. So surely, that must be reason why SPLM/A-IO and Machar doesn’t trust it.

The same shows the media, who the is there to report on injustice and on the violence, who is not allowed or trusted to do so. Are now gagged and silenced by many. The ISP are directed by the SSBC to not show their content in South Sudan, because of their reverse propaganda against the state. This shows that the state cannot handle reporting or articles critical to their agenda. The civil war is taking a toll on their moral and the need for freedom of expression in South Sudan. Peace.