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Analysis of the Pre-Election Period; as the Parties and Candidates make the preparations before the polls

UGDebate2016 P6 Together

As we go in the final week before the polls happens on the 18th February as the public and citizens will go to the polls and give their votes. The parties are doing the final preparations and rallies to generate the outcome the want.

This has been three horse race, as the five other candidates has not shined as much as NRM’s President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, FDC’s Dr. Kizza Besigye and Go-Forward/TDA Amama Mbabazi. Not as Abed Bwanika of the People’s Development Party hasn’t had done a bad campaign; I would say the opposite; but he is not in the league of gentlemen first noticed. Another candidate who has done well considering the beginning is Gen. Benon Buta Biraaro of the Farmers Party has done a decent job and said certain things that have been spot-on. Still, his reach has not come to any level of challenging the big-league. Joseph Mabirizi has become a punchline and not a candidate that justify the time he has spent or the money his campaign used. The only female in the race Maureen Kyalya Wamula has not been great sport, she is smart and wise, but loses the final touch as she speeds away a month in London; when arrives back travers Busoga again. She should instead tried to become a MP from Busoga, then becoming President as it would be fitting by how she did her campaign! Professor Venansius Baryamureeba the independent candidate haven’t made any noticeable progress other than pledges that are out of his league and I personally lost touch of him after the #UGDebate16 as he been in the wind.

Mbabazi M7 Besigye

So I will not discuss the 5 candidates unless they did something magical. As there been moments, but not many. Just as the media report Museveni and his NRM has “owned” the media, had most space in papers, radios and TV, even with the issues Museveni has had with NTV, Daily Monitor and a rare bunch of local radio channels; Mbabazi comes second most of the time in the report, but either the same as Besigye or not; Besigye been third or second with around 20 %.. So when President Museveni has cried foul it’s been because his make-up hasn’t been perfect while the drones driving over the campaign venue or the headlines in the newspapers he never reads is written in wrong fonts so he can’t find out what it means. As he is watching the pictures and cartoons as that is deep enough for the Mzee!

Amama Kaabong 5th Jan 2015 P2

We can easily see the hurt in NRM, as Go-Forward and Mbabazi is getting crowds without ferrying them, even when they work hard to pay people to shun his rallies, while they people to come to rallies; but never in the same place as the rally, the buses has to go into the villages and give UGX 5k and a t-shirt to get them to show-up at the Mzee venue. While Mbabazi Go-Forward has had massive deflections even major parts of his security detail went to the NRM and Go Forward officials in Teso region have disowned purported defectors, from their camp to the ruling National Resistance Movement-NRM party.  On Tuesday, more than 700 people were paraded before the First lady, Janet Museveni at Soroti State lodge claiming that they had defected from the camp of ex-prime minister. Even in Karamoja Janet Museveni has paid people who supposed to be FDC or Go-Forward to deflect to NRM.

Endorsment NRM Poor Youth

While the NRM front-man was really humiliated in Kayunga Town on the 8th February 2016 as the NRM Poor Youth would not mobilize for him. As he didn’t get the news from Isa Kato that NRM Poor Youth becoming Ugandan Poor Youth Forum on the 6th January and pleading their alliance to Mbabazi. That must hurt Mzee! As his former outfit have distanced themselves from NRM by giving their credentials to Mbabazi; it’s not a good luck when especially his NRM Mobilisers like Mike Ssebalu (Sebalu) didn’t contact the locals in other ways, as also the locals did not want to be ferried to the campaign venue. That must be slap on his face!

Kapwocha FDC 080116 P1

Besigye, the People’s President is really having a blast on the campaign trail and his campaign rallies has been massive as he has not gone into the meager display of the NRM, which has to ferry crowds from other parts of the country or villages with their yellow buses or even hire other transport companies to send people to his venues. While Dr. Kizza Besigye get people hyped and walking with swagger before arriving, they washing the roads and making the venues ready, the roads are blocked by crowds in procession to the stadiums and main squares as the people is really ready for change of the guards.

Kable NRM Primaries P1

NRM seems exhausted even when dropping millions upon millions to every village, having the NRM Mobilisers and NRM leaders giving money to villagers. NRM continue to give money to bribe people to vote for them, this is the way have to because they have no legitimate ways of political framework as everything seem more to corrupted by the position the leadership of NRM handling it. As the Primaries was a strange nearly fictional event which was marred with malfunctions.

NTV Odoi NRM Primaries

Just as the NRM EC under Dr. Tanga Odoi has been capable of doing some strange things during the party elections; the Electoral Commission have recently hope that the Ugandan citizens and NGOs continue to be ignorant about their actions. As they introduced a new voting slip system that you search on their site to get your place to go to vote, also where to pick-up the slip.

Badru EC

The Electoral Commission have also dropped the voters register who was compiled with deceased people and ghost voters in the size of 20,000 that took the Chairman nearly two weeks before he addressed. Before he addressed it the rumors of trying to leave the country during this week, while being stopped by 7 military vehicles and not able to leave as he has to do a service for the Mzee. Badru M. Kiggundu is soon looking like a Thomas Moore kind of man; as he is a blind Yellow Fellow who has sold his soul to Mzee, while missing the ingredient of the he getting his head chopped for not following the orders the king gives to him.

Jinja Police 10915 P1

The NRM people is addressing the public with fear and telling that the world will dismantle into pieces if they don’t go for the NRM. That is an terrifying way of rhetoric and that Mzee even had to address Lukwago in a dismissal and unfavorable way that none deserve, as the old man with the hat should show some respect to other leaders in the country. The Police continue to oppress the FDC and opposition parties.

Kampala 12.02.2016 Police Army

The Army is deploying more and more people in the streets as pictures of trucks and soldiers to spread fear in Kampala as the legitimacy is gone. The only way people staying loyal to the ruling-party is if they are payed enough or facilitated to the max so the houses and cars paid by the NRM; not on their own original salary.

New Vision 71% 2011 - 2016

New Vision continues writing fictitious polls giving the NRM and Museveni 53 % as servicing the ruling regime until the end. But while we know the Vision Media group and it’s radios and newspapers are owned by Museveni; so they will write in favor of Mzee at any cost, even if it is far from the truth, because they got nothing else.

The interesting last thing I will say my piece on is the second #UGDebate where Museveni actually said he will show up, but he needed to send Justine Kasule Lumumba to facilitate the events in favor of her meal-ticket. As the other parties has no issues about the event, NRM can’t handle that the one person moderate Voice of America own journalist Shaka Ssali from Kabale. They would rather have a UBC journalist or anybody they could pocket to make it beautiful fairytale the NRM want to portray. While Mwenda has said he is not Museveni’s campaign manager and would advise him not to show up and grace the event. That tells more about Mwenda then the debate, as Mwenda is more a closet fan of Museveni now than he will ever admit and seems like he has switches he googles and seen the Resistance Light as he has changed his view 360 from 2008. NRM might attend the event. The rest has promised like last time and will show up. We can be sure about that, they got nothing to lose.

The NRM and Museveni will look even more foolish if they fear Shaka Ssali, then he really is a Donald Trump character as he can’t handle Megyn Kelly of Fox News. There is a picture for you. This is my view of recent; it changes with information and the movement on the ground. This is how I feel, not how mr. Zeke on Kampala Road feels, this is all me. Peace.  

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NRM cries foul over media coverage

M7 NRM

There is some fun in this that the NRM cries foul over coverage. Especially when some of remember when certain loyal cronies was crying over how the NBS and NTV was following and imbedded into the convoys to their consultation meeting. Let me remind you on that before going over the comment recently coming from the NRM.

Kale Kayihura

On the 14th October 2015 IGP Kale Kayihura spoke at his press conference that day on the media:

“The thing, you as Journalists, especially NTV, NTV and NBS. Who normally are embedded with, in these convoys, I don’t know for what reason, whether you are really Journalist, at the edge of consents, or your been inducted into parties politics. That goes against by the way the professional ethics of journalism! That got a mandate to go after this, because it’s the broadcast act, the media and journalist act”.

So having the head of the Police commenting on how the journalist follows the FDC and Go-Forward consultation meetings was expected for everybody, though ironic talking about ethics, because they did in the same time period create havoc in Rukungiri and in the Greater Masaka area where the FDC was planning to have events. The Police also was violent in Soroti and Jinja where the Go-Forward camp had planned meetings. So that the media was following was to address the interests and how the Police was going against their own citizens. They are doing their duty as journalist to address the matters and also the unnecessary violence and detaining opposition party members and leaders; that is a common good that, that get addressed by the media in those instances.

Justine Kasule Lumumba

But let’s take a look at what the NRM said this week:

The Secretary General of NRM Justine Kasule Lumumba said this: “You should take note that our candidate has so far addressed 70 rallies and some haven’t even covered 20 of them(…)”I have observed that some media houses are biased and do not cover all the candidates equall” (FakeBeast, 2015).

What we have seen in October this year had the IGP Kale Kayihura saying that Media should not be in the convoys of a political parties, especially considering their ethical and codes of conduct of a journalist. That is in stark contrast to what the Secretary General Cries fowl about this week.

Though she does that, I am sure that NRM forgetting their own actions while they we’re in Lango Sub-County on the 13th November 2015 on the trail to 2016. This happen that day:

Museveni expels NTV from his media team after what he called unbalanced reporting on him. As per now, NTV journalists are being escorted back to Kampala by soldiers of the Special Forces Command. Daily monitor was also warned of a possible closure should their reporting continue to ‘favor’ the opposition ‘against’ Mr. Museveni.

Mbabazi M7 Besigye

That is just two weeks ago. So when you see how the NRM and their Presidential Candidate Yoweri Kaguta Museveni wasn’t happy with the pictures and “unbalanced” reports given at the time and at the rallies. That the Secretary General now in all respects says the same thing. It is not surprising, since they want all coverage! They don’t want people to follow the FDC, Go-Forward, Farmers Party or PDP, even the Independents who also have rallies.

The trouble NRM and the Police has with the coverage is that it isn’t just in favor with the view and perspective that NRM wish to perceive. That is because they will cover as they feel is right and question it all. I am sure the NRM is not happy with the covering reports of how they have used Crime Preventers to fill up crowds and deliverance of T-Shirts, foods and paying gas to Boda-Boda drivers around the venues of the NRM rallies. That is something that is not happening around the Go-Forward or FDC venues in the same time frame.

The pain that NRM have right now is that they don’t know how to handle that their losing grip. Everybody isn’t eating out their hands and taking their words for granted. That the media doesn’t follow you as they used to, because they are trying to cover the other parties rallies as well. Since there 8 candidates, there is a trio on the top that has the most coverage no matter how you look upon it. That Museveni, Mbabazi and Besigye has the most is natural, not only by looking at the size of their campaigns, but also the suctions of the candidates. That is why deflections is mostly happening to these candidates and their parties.

The reason why Go-Forward Camp or FDC camp is claiming the same as NRM about biased and unbalanced coverage is because of the massive coverage in general these days. NRM has their own media-house, which has been proven with 5 pages special from the NewVision during the start of the campaign trail. Something that the same paper would never do on FDC or Go-Forward because of its loyalty to the NRM. That is something other media-houses doesn’t have, even when they have shut down the Daily Monitor, reports of even paying of editors to scribble something else then negative and true coverage of the Government of Uganda and that means the NRM.

So if the Secretary General Kasule Lumumba and President Museveni complain; it’s kind of expected at this point. That IGP Kayihura was directing the media was also expected since he will detain anybody who doesn’t follow his reasoning. But that the internal parts of the Party of NRM now reacts with three months to go to General Elections in 2016. This shows that their struggling with convincing the media on how to cover the rallies and pledges given by Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.

IGP Kayihura get his wish in a way if that the media is not imbedded with convoys of the NRM party, since that is what he said was against the ethics of journalists. Something that Museveni and Kasule Lumumba we can assume isn’t happy about at this present time. Since they want to have the NRM in the spotlight, get the GREEN positive GO light. That they don’t get. The coverage is followed by their actions and when you constantly attack and address journalist as problems and make their relationship problematic, it will be easier to address the Go-Forward and FDC where you are welcome. That is proven with the actions done by the NRM in Lango Sub-County.

And by looking at their actions and wishes is not something you can combine. It doesn’t match. If they want more coverage then they also have accept it for what it is. Instead of telling what and trying to spin it the way they want it. I am sure Dr. Kizza Besigye didn’t want the photos with the chicken to the public, as much as Amama Mbabazi didn’t want to have the “Share-A-Coke with” moment earlier in the campaign. But that happen and the media and online world has captured it.

Share A Coke W Amama 101115

That the NRM feels that the coverage is biased or not covered enough is telling more about the NRM, then the media. The Media can make their decision to where to cover and how they explain and express what happens around the NRM. The NRM can’t do like they do internally to explain and argue, the media should be different. That they feel less covering then Dr. Kizza Besigye and Amama Mbabazi proves how much they fear the opposition and their candidates since the NRM can’t handle how big crowds surround their trails and none of them is payed Crime Preventers or hired men to show up. Some of the crowds at the NRM venues has been so and when that has been pointed out in media, the media has been criticized for saying so. Well, the retort should be – there shouldn’t be hired crowds at the campaign trail, and doesn’t matter which party. NRM they have a history for this kind of action, therefore when the media and journalist address it, it’s the NRM who should change, not the Journalist addressing it.

That is in general what the NRM, Museveni and Kasule Lumumba implies that the Media and Journalists should change to their tune and not think for themselves and just cover what they want to show. Like they wanted all to see Bebe Cool speaking about roads to Moroto after the recent rally, but not about the rest of the state of Sub-County where he was campaigning, I am sure not all parts of those areas was that great built and functioning, right?

NRM can cry foul and can be suspicious of how the coverage is being carried out. But we all know that they just want the whole spotlight and leave everybody else into darkness. That would be wish of President Museveni, he want to be leading star and the guardian of the galaxy!

Still, it seems that they still get massive coverage, maybe not the one they want… or wished in the first place. And that hurts them because they want be the beautiful ruling government instead they are showing the NRM-Regime as they really are. The actions and rhetoric hurts them and doesn’t help their cause, if they really have another one then ruling, and one man ruling them all. If so, please enlighten me on that, since I only see a one-man ruling party who is a skeleton when he needs it. And loyal subjects to him like Secretary General Kasule Lumumba and others who comply with his every need. Something the media does not do and question their behavior and words. To see and discuss it! That will hopefully also happen under a new regime and hopefully be more tolerant of the journalist and their opposition then the one that currently ruling Uganda. Peace.

Reference:

Fakebeast – ‘Media ignores Museveni, Kasule cries out’ (26.11.2015) link: http://www.fakebeast.com/media-ignores-museveni-kasule-cries-out/

Kabuzire, Linda – ‘NRM: Mbabazi Must Stop Provoking Us’ (26.11.2015) link: http://www.chimpreports.com/nrm-mbabazi-must-stop-provoking-us/

Today Amama Mbabazi starts walking through the desert

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This day we have a special announcement that Yoweri Kaguta Musveni isn’t the only presidential candidate in the NRM or National Resistance Movement Party (Walubiri, 2015). We all know that the other parties have gone together in a Democratic Alliance that happened on the 10.06.2015.  This here will not be on that, but will be hard to separate from the latest revelation.

Now a new path will JPAM or Amama Mbabazi walk on the way to preliminary election to be the main candidate in the NRM. Though we all in our hearts now the end-game as long as Yoweri Museveni walks himself on mother earth. This will not be a real election. There will be certain speeches and balloting, but the end result will be in his favor, but in the party and nationally in the General Election of 2016.

AmamaNRMElection2016

We all who has followed them know that their former weapon brothers who have kept each other close. No one would deny that. If you have followed Amama Mbabazi you know he has scruples. This will be played in this power struggle. Not only use of UPF to get rid of campaign people for the Ex-VP. We all know that. There will be because of the Public Order Management Act (POMB) and 3 day rule. Some of us know that the powers want allow them to gather. Because that makes NRM into two vicious fractions: the ones supporting Museveni and the other supporting Mbabazi. Mbabazi has had strong support in the NRM Youth leaders who has endorsed him (Katusabe, 2015). Even today on the Uganda Youth Platform they endorsed him too. Their statement on facebook was: “We as members of uganda youth platform want to fustinctively thank Hon. Amama mbabazi upon his declaratin! This is good for the struggle to dislodge the dictatorship. Bravo”. So we sure know that Amama Mbabazi has a base. It’s surfacing.

But we all know the tricks of the grand master. He will not release and loose this at any price. I am sure he will pull out all of his election mechanisms and trades. That he has stocked up. Finally he will address all the scandals of Mbabazi. The reasons why hasn’t done that yet or done anything else then clipping his wings. It is because Museveni knows that if this all goes public, he can also shame him and put dirt on him as well.

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After he sent him into a special exile we have all wonder what his step would be. Would he join forces with the opposition like FDC, UPC or DP? Be friendly to Gilbert Bukenya, Mugisha Muntu, Dr. Kizza Besigye or Olara Otunnu? No, he haven’t made any significant relationship with these people? No! He is going solo in the great party of Museveni.

The former weapon brothers are sudden “enemies” and wishing the big-chair at the Parliament. But there can only be one winner. No matter what kind of alliance the opposition parties and candidates they have against the NRM candidate. They will struggle and have hardships. The EC is often rigged. Dr. Kizza Besigye knows this. All of Uganda knows this. Even if FDC has won some by-elections in the past like recent the one in Amuru by-election 20th November when Lucy Akello won the seat there. But this is small fry compared to the real deal of going against the almighty chief. The boss that has been seated in-charge since 1986. The man who took power with the gun and after promised twice to step down. First was that he was supposed to retire after the 2001. Then he changed added an amendment to the constitution on 2005. So he could be elected again in 2006. And so is the saga until this day of today. We are now running towards the General election 2016 which happens to be 15 years after his first promise of retirement. And now Mbabazi will be into the fire and get with a goat in the desert.

He might have the endorsement from certain type of voters. Even inside of the party. But he will have to fight the man who “built” him and “let him be”. Now Museveni will do everything to discredit him. Take all kind of ammunition of corruption, nepotism and other misgivings that has happen since the NRM took power.

Now will Museveni does what he can, even if Mbabazi could drop knowledge on him, because Mbabazi got a stamp okay to do it or even so, Museveni just let him do it in the past. Now that it will surface and the stink will be smelling for days. Mbabazi might even feel a bit alone at times. Because now Museveni will ask for loyalty, which means that those who are behind him will get paid, those that don’t will be shut out or shunned by the party. Just like the NRM Youth leaders who endorsed him. They lost their spot and positions. While those who stand by Museveni will prosper. That’s his system. In reality the Movement System has become a place of finding those who are loyal in the rural areas and does who will follow conformed message of the leadership without asking. They will over time get a piece for their contribution. Even if their lucky get their district shut in two so they can get more leadership funding and balance, last and least securing loyalty to the chief in the parliament in Kampala.

Therefore when you have a system built for loyalty to one man. Then a former fellow comrade, weapon-brother or friend goes against you. It will be a long road. Mbabazi will walk alone on this one. He will be burned in the desert. The sun will not leave much shade. Every piece of bad blood of his past will now crack open. I as many others know that he is a corrupt man. Museveni is a corrupt man. But you, I and the world should know that by now. And if you’re surprised by that fact then do a little research. You’ll find enough articles and examples on how corrupt this two are.

They will know fight though not in front of the public. This will be in the background and in the shadows. The dirt and dust will land in public. New Vision will come with all ammunition on the dirt of Mbabazi. They have already started today. The journey through the desert is just starting for Amama Mbabazi or JPAM. Museveni will trigger all kind of works from the NRM that we haven’t seen in ages. To take a little quote from point blank: “this will be bloody!”

Good luck on your journey through the desert. Hope it will not be like Moses and last for 30 years. Mbabazi doesn’t have that time. Might his daughter have that, but not him. Museveni will not give this up easy. This will be special and how it will play out is now coming. If Mbabazi is going to get the Erias Lukwago and Dr. Kizza Besigye treatment is not sure of. But I wouldn’t be surprised: if he will get house-arrest in the future and can’t drive out his block to a campaign in Wandegye in Kampala. Or have to postpone meetings with delegates who support him because he will break with law of POMB. Certain things will happen in due time while he is in the desert. Peace.

Video of statement from Amama Mbabazi:

Reference:

Katusabe, Ruth & Bashime, Felix – ‘Three NRM youth leaders fired over links with Mbabazi’ (30.04.2015) Link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/NRM-youth-leaders-fired-links-Mbabazi/-/688334/2702094/-/6vcl1y/-/index.html

Walubiri, Moses – ‘Amama Mbabazi to run for president’ (15.06.2015) Link: http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/669767-amama-mbabazi-to-run-for-president.html

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