The origins of the war in Tigray in November 2020, like almost all other wars in the world, are political. By politics, we mean the power struggle between political forces when one tries to implement the unlimited desire to dominate the other by force of arms instead of politics. This Tigray war is between the Ethiopian political forces led by Abiy and the TPLF and the Eritrean political force led by Isaiah. All these political forces describe themselves as being forced into the war. Abiy says we should respect the law, TPLF says it is a question of existence, and Isaiah – Game Over! -He says we have no peace until the revolutionary is destroyed. They all try to appear to be truthful to the people they claim to represent.
Leaving the political analysis to politicians, we will try to look at the consequences of the Tigray war in terms of its human, social and economic impact on the peoples of Ethiopia, Tigray and Eritrea.
War is destruction, the first and irreplaceable killer of human lives. How many tens of thousands of young people lost their lives in the last first round alone, not counting the second round that erupted in recent days? How many tens of thousands have been maimed?
When a young person dies, his father, mother, brothers, wife, children, and all his relatives in general are hurt. If he had children, they would be orphaned, grow up without a father, and the emotional trauma of his absence would torment them for the rest of their lives. His wife raising young orphans, the sudden heavy burden, the rough life she goes through is unimaginable.
How many parents have not died in grief after telling of the sacrifices of their children in the 1998-2000 border war for independence and Eritrea? How many have lost their endurance in old age?
Those who are blind, amputated, or otherwise disabled, who should have carried their families, become the burden of their families, their people and their country.
The human losses of war are very difficult to quantify. His scars for generations are incomparable.
War is a blazing fire for everyone it touches! How many families have been displaced and displaced because of this war. How many women have been raped? This violence leaves indelible scars for the rest of their lives, leaving them with physical and psychological wounds, tormenting not only themselves and their families but the whole society, and has irreparable damage.
Because of this war, peoples who have lived together for centuries have become divided, revengeful and killing each other. The racially motivated massacre in a village called Qadra shocked everyone and showed that man can lose his humanity and become a beast.
When this war finally stops, politicians say goodbye, and the lucky survivors return home, how many of them will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)?
Prolonged war creates unwanted disruption in society. These young people who are dying in this war are losing time to study, work, get married and raise their children. Women who should have been married live unmarried, children who should have been born are not born, and those born do not grow up in families with stable fathers and mothers. All of this combines to create a huge disruption in the community.
As we watch in the media, we see the war in Ukraine turning cities into powder with our own eyes. That is the fruit of war. How many buildings, hospitals, airports, big bridges, factories have been destroyed in the Tigray war? Today the destruction may be in Tigray or other parts of Ethiopia, if it enters Eritrea tomorrow, we have no different fate. How many millions, billions of dollars would this damage be?
You need an immense amount of money to wage war. Modern weapons, fighter jets, drones, rockets, tanks, ammunition, other weapons, provisions, fuel, etc. As third countries, these modern weapons, arms, fuel and so on, we do not produce in our country, so they have to be bought from abroad in dollars (hard currency). It is unthinkable that we will have reserved dollars if we cannot provide basic supplies to our people. So everything will be bought on credit. When will this loan be repaid? Who will pay for it? Once the politicians who started the war are removed, it will ultimately become the burden of the country and the people.
The immense amount of money being spent on the war should have been spent on developing the country and building hospitals, schools, roads, farms, factories, universities, businesses, and other infrastructure. If these infrastructures are not built, students will not have schools, the public will not have access to basic medical services, drinking water and electricity. If infrastructure is destroyed, the economy is destroyed. If the economy collapses, the people plunge into extreme poverty that lasts for generations.
This is only a glimpse of the consequences of war from the sea. We hope that social studies scholars will write about the consequences of this war in detail and teach us.
What should be the public reaction
As mentioned above, this war was fueled by a few power-hungry politicians. These politicians are criminally responsible for the lives of thousands of citizens who are dying in vain. What is our reaction, peoples of Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea? As the saying goes, the people are bearing the brunt of this war. If the loss and destruction is the burden of the people, the people themselves must find solutions without waiting for politicians to change the situation.
First, he must believe that war is not the solution. He should not be deceived by the propaganda of politicians. Like it or not, the people only benefit from living in peace with each other. Hatred is not the solution.
If the people unite, there is no obstacle. “Dir Biabr, binds a lion,” as the Amharic proverb says, a thread that ties, binds a lion. The people of Eritrea, Ethiopia and Tigray, to all political leaders, “Refuse to fight! We will not give our children to death! ENOUGH OF THE PAST!” They must tell them.
Because of the Tigray war, our region has been devastated and our people are on the verge of death and destruction. Our social fabric is being destroyed, our economy is being devastated, and our people are suffering from poverty, misery and persecution. We fear that this war will plant hatred that will last for generations. We are not blessed with wise political leaders who put the interests of their people and country first. The peoples of this region must stop the war that is destroying these poor countries without waiting for politicians to stop it so that their future and the future of their children can be secured! ENOUGH! and what his stage demands. It is not too late for people to talk to people, to find a way of reconciliation and peace. The people must raise their eyes and stop the destruction of their youth. He should hold these politicians accountable for the blood of the thousands who are dying.
Peace to the peoples of Ethiopia, Tigray and Eritrea!
Eritrean Movement for Democracy and Human Rights (EMDHR)
For some weird reasons there is coup d’etat rumours circulating about President Xi Jinping. There is supposed friction and issues within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). We know there been several of high ranking officials and elites who has been touched by the authorities lately. That might cause issues within the ruling regime. The President still needs support, even if he arrests and charges people within with bribery charges and whatnot. That might be the right thing to do, but could also weakening his support too. Because, everyone cannot live in fear that he might take them down and get rid of them. It don’t matter how rich or influential they get. They could still get long prison stints and lose their careers.
Now that the flights are cancelled and reported army movements toward Beijing. There are rumours of a house-arrest and a coup there. What is weird as that is happening. Xi Jingpin has sent this message like normal:
“On the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the establishment of China News Service, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the State, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, sent a congratulatory letter to extend sincere congratulations to all the comrades of China News Service. In his congratulatory letter, Xi Jinping pointed out that over the past 70 years, China News Agency has adhered to the patriotic reporting policy, insisted on serving overseas Chinese, and played an active role in telling Chinese stories and spreading Chinese voices well” (Xi Jinping, 23.09.2022).
However, that message could be last official message he sent before being house arrested by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). We know that Xi Jinping did go after a certain “political clique” and went after their corrupt activity. That has to cause a stir and could create tensions too. We have seen several of people being charged and even high ranking officials getting life-charges. Meaning, they have nothing to loose to challenge Xi Jinping now. They are already in dire straits and could easily regain power by getting rid of Xi Jinping.
Some says there is a lot of smoke, but there is still no truth or verified fire. Certainly, things are sketchy and questionable at best. The rumours are saying General Li Qiaoming have taken control and is calling the shots now. However, nothing is sure at this very moment. It is all in the wind and we cannot assess it.
There is no official report or statement. Neither is there any sort of changes of substance. It is mull and silence. Therefore, things could move like normal and the “clique” targeted only wants to weaken the Chairman ahead of the Leadership Congress. Nevertheless, who knows right? That’s just mere speculation and we cannot know.
Another even weirder rumour is that Xi Jinping just died suddenly and the CCP is scraping or struggling with how to move forward. That he just died a few hours ago on this day the 24th September 2022. However, that rumour is even more weird than the coup d’etat after the purge within his own party. Therefore, I don’t take it as truth or believe it.
So, the key rumours are a PLA takeover and Xi Jinping in a supposed house-arrest. Another rumour is his demise and sudden death, which only said by a few online. Nevertheless, nothing is known and Beijing isn’t stating anything. We just have to wait and see here.
We just have to see what the CCP, PLA or whoever high ranking officials comes out with a statement. If they have anything or just continues to keep silent. Whatever it is… something is brewing and we have no idea. Peace.
“The army of the Russian Federation will not be able to create a reserve of high quality. Poor preparation of the conscription infrastructure will not allow the enemy troops to quickly fix fundamental and systemic problems. Mobilization in the Russian Federation has exacerbated social tension: protests, attacks on recruiting stations and acts of vandalism have become more frequent” (ТРУХА⚡️English, 24.09.2022).
This week news and decree of mass mobilization, which had a secret point 7 that by some is said to be the official numbers or the supposed regions of where the recruits was supposed to come from. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has already cost more than 56,000 lives and who knows how many Russian soldiers are prisoners of war (POW). There is already so many who is killed in action (KIA) and who is wounded too. Therefore, the Russian forces are stretched and lacking manpower.
That’s why Russian government, Kremlin and the Duma had to issue such a decree. There been words of 300,000 new recruits or mobilized troops, but also up to 3,000,000. However, whatever numbers it might be. They will be ill-trained, lack equipment and time to stop the advances of the Ukrainian army, which is only liberating their own territories.
The new people who are either captured, forced or being promised tokens for service. Certainly is joining the war at a bad time. The Russian army has already struggled with logistics and keeping the lines. The demonstrations and the people fleeing from being called-up. Only shows when the war comes home. There isn’t a will to support it, but the same citizens was fine to support it when other people where dying in it.
That’s why Russians citizens has tried to fly out to places where they don’t need visa. Trying to reach Georgia or other former USSR republic where they are welcomed. Some are stopped and blocked from entry Because, they have “Z” on their cars and shown support of the war, but didn’t want to fight it.
What could be the biggest shocker is for all of the rural soldiers and forced conscripts passing through Moscow. When they are coming from poverty to see the vast wealth of capital. That’s when they might rebel or act in mutiny. Because, they are not seeing this sort of lifestyle or possibilities, which are in Moscow or St. Petersburg. They will be shocked, as they come from peasantry and is expected to be sacrificed for the will of the leaders of Kremlin.
That’s what might happen. There is already reactions and local demonstrations, but nothing that haven’t stopped the acts from happening. Neither has it been such a state that the authorities couldn’t control it. We know the will and lack of moral to sign-up is obvious. When there is reports of police officers following the people who are going house to house to force people to join the army. If the Russians thought this would get people willingly or be war ready. Well, people aren’t like that…
Because of the hardships of the authorities to get people to sign-up and mobilize. There reports of possible nationwide martial-law and closure of borders. Just to stop idle men and people from fleeing abroad. Since there are steady reports of this. Certainly some will go into hiding and will not be at their address. They will certainly be gone “missing” because they don’t want to die in the war. That’s what is happening and it’s obvious.
Certainly, Putin is jaded in his vision. This “Special Operation” has exhausted his armies and the economy is struggling too. In combination of a disillusioned army, lack of preparation and morals. There is no will and people conscripting by force won’t get them “battle-ready” or eager to fight. Instead, it might easily backfire and Gods know what these men are willing to do. No matter what laws and possible punishments pinned on them for rebelling or mutiny can stop it. It is better to be in prison for a decade, than dying a miserable death in a war in Ukraine. Therefore, the Russian civilians who is forced is now getting the war home.
A war that has been there for months and since February 2022. The war that was started in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. Ukraine couldn’t decide to fight or have choice. The Russian civilians had the choice. They could have stood up to the authorities and dared to question it. However, they have been willing to support and look silently by. Eating the propaganda and even worn the “Z”. That’s what they have done, but now it’s their turn to carry weapons for the state. Now the buck stops and they act in indifference.
I don’t have much sympathy, because well.. the war of destruction, annihilation and total disregard for Ukraine has been going on. Kremlin and Duma has been vital in this and the people didn’t mind when the ethnic minorities or the rural poor stood guards on the front-lines of Ukraine. Surely Dagestan and other regions has been depleted of plenty of young men. Who has died and never returns to their villages. Now, the same sort of conscripts are supposed to come from elsewhere and people who did sing the songs of war. Now are frightened that they have to risk their lives in Ukraine. Well… it’s your turn and Putin wants you.
Putin wants the Russian civilians to die needlessly for his own will and prestige. His losing face, so the people has to lose their lives. That’s the difference between this “Tsar” and the peasants. They got to die so he get the honour. The victims and innocent of Ukraine is only a byline in this. That is just a means to an end and the glory of Mother Russia. To take back what was “theirs” and keep the influence of Moscow strong. Nevertheless, the times has changed and the Ukrainian forces are striking back so hard that they got to retreat. It won’t get any better with forced conscript, ill equipped and lacking military experience to be fighting a fierce army who has fought consistently since February on their own territories. Therefore, the gamble of getting people this way will be endangering the cause of Putin.
This isn’t strategical genius, but a gamble. Hoping the numbers will save him more than the skill or their abilities to compete. Hoping the drunk, the sick and poor can do great out of nowhere. That’s a mirage or a dream. When you don’t have well-trained or well-equipped men fighting or people ready for it. You shouldn’t expect victory but a massive defeat. Lot’s of these conscripts might just retreat or even accept being taken as “POW”. Because why shouldn’t they? They are not fighting at will, but by force and by decisions made by others.
It just shows how Putin has failed at his attempt of annexing the whole of Ukraine. He failed and so did his cronies in Moscow. They totally failed and has nothing to show for it. Whatever they do now is fake, fraudulent and self-destructive. This will not amount to anything positive, but only more bloodshed. Peace.
The anti-peaceful crown carrying terrorist, the messengers Abiy Ahmed and Esayas have taken away the natural right of the people by force, so that not only the people of Agew, but also the people of Tigray and Afar live in poverty and war. : head on A people that doesn’t forgive the history of the people that don’t forgive history and stand with the foreign invaders by making them not to have a political relationship with each other by spreading and killing each other by making them lose their race and name to live in the form of a war of separatists and separatists, by making them a national political weapon with the dictatorial system and standing with the foreign invading army The mass oppression and genocide. They have continued their mission.
The Ethiopian and Eritrean defense forces in Agew and Tigray, Amhara militia and Fano have committed genocide and human rights violations should not be investigated and international organizations and diplomats should not enter Tigray region and the Agaw region should not investigate the mass killings on our people in zones where people are ruled by the people of Agew region should not be investigated. Turn up in peace They have been trying not to be included in the negotiations and not to be held accountable. They have been lying to the people of Afar, Agew, Tigray people as if they are the security guards of peace.
At this time, the life saving humanitarian aid that was prepared to save our people in Hamra (Agew) zone has been set to burn by the forces that call themselves Ethiopian Joint Army in Northern Wollo so that they can not save lives. The Agew people are putting on it to prevent humanitarian aid and the property of our people from being used. The red fire has become a military oven, separated from many sides and directions and disappearing by its identity and agew.
Anti-peace ANDM (Shabiya) – oppressing the Ethiopian people on the Ethiopian people, not only raping the sovereignty of Ethiopia, but also using hunger as a weapon, a member of the foreign defense force who doesn’t have Ethiopian feelings and values, and calling for Eritrea to be part of the war in the Ethiopian parliament where the people of Tigray are not represented. Wiping flies off the face of the earth. The fact that various international human rights activists have confirmed that it will be found has been proved to be true.
Therefore, the democratic constitutional right of the people, human and fundamental self-government, the right to use one’s right to freely use one’s freedom and international recognition and the people’s struggle to live in a system based on negotiation and agreement of the people by force, the Ahdawi group of Asmara Bahirdar is loyal to the supremacy to push the desire of the expansion of the ages The one called to plant Addis Ababa system. War will be carried out by the humiliation of fascists.
Agew, who has been oppressed as a people and as an environment, will continue to fight with our fellow people until it ensures sustainable peace and development.
The fact that the dictator Esayas private army has attacked Tigray and Agew people again to genocide has made the Agew Liberation Front regretted. The struggle of the Tigray defense force on this aimless cheap power and leadership is with respect and the people of Tigray and Agew, all nations and nationalities of Ethiopia. The bravery of the Eritrean people who lost their freedom is doing to Tigray and Agew defense force. The Agew Liberation Front is in the sense of nationalism and great historical responsibility. To whom it may concern Proud is a killer.
The heroic defence forces of Tigray and Agew and the Tigray Agew people are defending this invasion and atrocities.
Victory for the people of Agew!
Victory for Agew army!
Agew Liberation Front (ANF)
The Interparty Organisation for Dialogue (IPOD) who has gotten major funding from Democratic Government Facility (DGF) and Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD). DGF is bound to only last a few more months until December 2022. While NIMD has ceased funding after IPOD has failed to get all parties to sign a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The lasted MoU lasted until February 2022.
Now in September 2022 the IPOD Secretariat might feel at a loss. The ideal of IPOD might seem positive and worthwhile. Nevertheless, the results and the political forum has been more a sideshow than actually being fruitful. The majority party and ruling regime, National Resistance Movement (NRM) has used it more to poach the opposition and have publicity stunts. While the opposition like Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and National Unity Platform (NUP) haven’t seen any sort of dialogue or proper platform to make difference. That’s why they rather distance themselves from it.
The IPOD was maybe made with the best interest in 2010. NIMD and DGF funded the organization to have a place and possibility to meet. IPOD could have been a safe space for the political parties, but we all know this haven’t been in the interests of the Head of State or the NRM. The NRM wants to either intimidate, strike or corrupt their opposition. That’s why President Museveni has himself promised to destroy and get rid of all opposition.
Now in 2022 and after 12 years of IPOD. The NRM is losing one of the few places where Museveni could actually meet the real opposition. Not the “opposition” who is already leaning towards him or co-operating with him. No, the ones defying him or wanting to remove him isn’t now a part of the IPOD.
That NIMD is saying it won’t fund IPOD before NUP and FDC joins is a failure. The parties themselves has decide. They have seen the works of IPOD and what it has “achieved”. The organization don’t have that much to show for it. This is why they cannot even write an MoU, which they cannot agree upon.
The NRM might feel like this is a “victory”. They can point at NUP and FDC. However, that is a very hallow “victory”. The FDC and NUP has done this for various of reasons, but it is clear that the NRM isn’t an honest actor. That’s why activists, candidates and associates connected to the NUP or FDC are either kept incommunicado, arrested or even extra judicially killed. The authorities are monitoring the opposition more than they look into crooks. Therefore, the political prisoners and prisoners of conscience is a well-known phenomenon in the Republic. That’s all because of their affiliation and who they are associated with.
If the NRM really wanted IPOD to work. They would have properly invested in it and not only used it for photo-ops ahead of polls and elections. While also using it more directly to create positive headlines Nevertheless, NIMD and DGF maybe want more for their coins. They want them to actually have inclusive dialogue and talks in a political forum. That sort of thing seems like a thing of the past.
It is not the fault of NUP or the FDC for the end of IPOD. The killer of IPOD is Museveni. Like everyone else it goes back to him. It is his choices and orders, which are reflected here. He is getting his will and certainly not … get a free lunch. IPOD is only destroyed and losing value, as there are no real progress or talks of substance. When an organization like IPOD becomes sub-standard forum and losing all value.
President Museveni cannot be happy with this, because this just shows how flawed his multi-party democracy is. When the one forum he had where all elected parties could meet and talk is now ceasing to operate. The funding of this organization is stopped. Because, FDC and NUP isn’t accepting the conditions of the current MoU. That’s a failure and lacking the general understanding of what it should be.
If Museveni wanted this… things would have been different. Nevertheless, expect the NRM to deflect it or blame the parties for not signing on. Because, why should they sign on to something… when it gives them nothing and only legitimizing the regime. IPOD only gives political currency to the NRM without giving the other parties anything worthwhile. The others are just getting an opportunity to see Museveni close by and be there in his presence. That’s a futile enterprise and if the NIMD see that is an asset. They should just continue to pursuit it. However, it isn’t the product that its portrayed on the tin. It is something else and the ones dismissing it has all the reasons to do so. Peace.