Somalia: Villa Somalia needs another confidant [The month-long saga of an AU Envoy]

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Villa Somalia have now badly manoeuvred the mediation and possible third party involvement in the election impasse created by the President and his “Yes-Men”. Clearly, the state have been able to sway their misgivings and getting their way in the past by the way the state went out of its way to expel United Nations Envoy to Somalia Nicholas Haysom. This here follows a pattern now, but it’s more depressing than that.

The ones who doesn’t see it. Clearly should follow this mockery of legitimizing the current affairs. It is clear that the ones in charge is only asking the African Union (AU) to get the rest of the International Community to move away. Villa Somalia already have their appointed Prime Minister to run it all, but the ex-President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo is still getting his way. Just had to give up his 2 year extension, but that’s all.

Now we have seen a joke of foreign response and getting mediation. Just read these three reports since the 20th April to the 12th May 2021. That is just a month and it’s a side-show.

Just look!

On the 20th April 2021:

President Farmaajo, who arrived in Kinshasa for an official visit on Monday, met DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi, who is also the AU chairman, for two hours. During the meeting, he briefed President Tshisekedi on the political and security situation in Somalia. “President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed particularly insisted that the African Union and chairman should play a leading role to facilitate and frame the negotiations and the dialogue between all the Somali stakeholders,” a dispatch from the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa said” (Patrick Illunga – ‘Somalia: Mohamed Farmaajo Accepts AU Mediation’ 20.04.2021, Daily Nation/AllAfrica).

On the 9th of May 2021 the Somalia Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdirizak Mohamud notified and wrote a letter to the African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat. Where the message was clear from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Villa Somalia. As the final piece of the letter say: “The earlier envisaged rule of the high representative was all the more sensitive given the political nature of the task. Therefore, it’s indeed surprising that a candidate with an extensive link with Kenya’s leadership has been chosen by the AU to facilitate talks on a political impasse partly engineered by the Kenyan leadership has supported” (…) “I hereby notify the the African Union of the formal withdrawal of support by the Federal Government of Somalia for the AU Representative for Somalia” (Somalia Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation letter to African Union Commission Chairperson Mahamat, 09.05.2021).

On the 13th May 2021:

A source told Garowe Online that Prime Minister Mohamed H. Roble was aware of Villa Somalia’s rejection of the AU envoy. According to the report, PM and his advisers believe that the new envoy will undermine the role of the PM in the talks expected to take place in Mogadishu on May 20, Somalia” (Garowe Online, 13.05.2021).

This here makes it seem like a insincere gesture. That the Somali Ex-President only travelled to Kinshasa to buy more time and later get somebody to talk too. Though initially not wanting anyone. It is just mere luck that the former Ghana President John Mahama was part of the mediation post-2017 elections in Kenya. Not like Mahama or even John Kerry made strides or became popular in the political circles in Nairobi. Still, that is made as an excuse and supposed to be more “Kenyan” interference in Mogadishu.

The way this has been played out is not a winning strategy for Farmaajo or Roble. They are maybe thinking this is smooth sailing, but instead they are humiliating themselves. First they are asking for something and when they get it. They say no to it like an entitled brat. That’s maybe because the same administration was able to send Haysom packing and change the UN Envoy as well. Therefore, they think they can do it here too.

Farmaajo and Villa Somalia is really liking to be on the knifes edge. This sort of behaviour isn’t making the mediation or the process more believable. Though everyone should hope for a process on the 17th September 2020 accord. Therefore, Roble have to build trust with all the Federal Member States and Presidential Candidates as well. This will not be easy.

Especially, when Villa Somalia plays things out like this. That doesn’t create trust in them. Instead it opens up mind to question them more. Because, many of them are the same one that stalled process and did what they could to get a unconstitutional two year extension. Peace.

Morocco: #FreeKoulchi – Communique de press #FreeKoulch du 12 mai 2021 (12.05.2021)

Republique Centrafricaine: Union pour le Renouveau Centrafricain (URCA) – Communique de Presse (10.05.2021)

Philippines: NTF-WPS Sustains Patrols and Monitors continued Illegal Incursions by Foreign Vessels in the West Philippine Sea (12.05.2021)

Tchad: Assemblee National – Troisieme Legislature – Secretariat General – Communique No. 008 (12.05.2021)

Ethiopia: Getachew K. Reda – Statement on the current situation in Tigray (12.05.2021)

Dear friends, just to let you know that I am back, sort of. As Mark Twain once quipped, the news about my death/s (too many of them apparently!) was a bit exaggerated!
The history of Tigray is replete with stories of heroism and glory; of people steeped in the tradition of fighting injustice against a constellation of enemies often all at once; of steadfastness in the face of adversity. The people of Tigray have over the centuries faced disparate challenges-natural or man made- only to come out victorious. Giving up has never been part of the historical lexicon of Tigray. No matter how difficult the odds, Tigray has always ultimately prevailed over its adversaries, wherever they come from or whatever their size.
The people of Tigray have once again been subjected to all kinds of calamities in the hands of their enemies. In light of the enormity of the challenges we faced throughout history, Abiy and Isaias are, despite the untold misery and suffering they have caused on our people, mere midgets in the face of the Tigraian Resistance.
It is little wonder then that the anti-Tigray coalition of stone age enthusiasts is crumbling fast in the face of the Tigray resistance. Tigray is once again proving to be its enemies’ graveyard. Tigray will not just prevail against a constellation of reactionaries in the battlefield; but more importantly will rise from the ashes and rebuild itself on solid foundations and soon!

Kenya: Building Bridges Inititiative (BBI) National Secretariat – Press Statement (12.05.2021)

Ethiopia: The Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS) letter to the President of G-7 Leaders’ Summit Prime Minister Boris Johnson – Abiy Ahmed Ali is a Force of Instability and Disintegration (11.05.2021)

Zimbabwe: Movemenet of Democratic Change – Alliance (MDC-Alliance) – Communique on 11/05/2021 National Standing Committee Meeting (12.05.2021)

A look into the “Rigged” Report [the 11th May 2021 Edition]

Today was the day of the 7th Swearing-In Ceremony of President Yoweri Tibuhurwa Kaguta Museveni. The 6th Ceremony held at Kololo Independence Ground and the 6th Ceremony of this kind held on the 12th May in the election year. Well, the President has now concluded this election.

Though I will dig into the important material in the Report released called “Rigged” which was published with a new edition yesterday. Dr. Nico Schoonderwoerd with acknowledgements to Bruce I. Afran and Robert Kyagulanyi and the National Unity Platform (NUP) for certain aspects of the report, which was in the original published on the 17th March 2021.

I will look through and drop my notes on the matter in between the pieces of information. Which say a lot about the conducted elections of January 2021. I will not look into the voter intimidation and bribery. Neither address the senseless violence, impunity and misuse of the authorities in favour of the regime. That I have discussed in length in other articles. Here I feel the “head-shot” or the “winning ticket” is the ballot box stuffing and Post DoR Fraud.

I will begin with this quote:

In the various regions we see the different types of rigging being applied in a different way.

Region

Voter intimidation

Bribery

Ballot box stuffing

Post-Dor Fraud

Central

Heavily

Limited

Limited districts

Average

Eastern

Heavily

Heavily

Average

Average

Western

Heavily

Heavily

Massively, in all districts

Average

Northern

Enormously

Heavily

Average

Average

In most cities it was difficult to stuff the ballot-boxes, so the effect of voter intimidation becomes more clear. Gulu City shows how enormous the intimidation was up north, as is supported by the statements in our Chapter on the North. Ballot box stuffing is indicated by high turnout & high percentage of Museveni votes. In the top right of the diagram (courtesy Melina Platas) we do not only see Western districts, but also Northern districts such as Amudat” (Schoonderwoed, P: 9, 2021).

There are now saying that the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the President lost Baganda (Central Region) in this election. However, by the state of things. The evidence coming forward proves only that the results there are more close the reality. As the rigging was as extensive as in the other regions. This means, they deliberately gave up a part and knew the rigging elsewhere would secure the victory anyway.

A very interesting finding of the rigging was the finding on page 57, which says:

Since the ‘election fingerprint’ of these 3 elections is similar to the fingerprints identified as fraudulent by Peter Klimek et al we can apply their conclusion that the Ugandan elections results of 2011, 2016 and 2021 do not represent the will of the people. When the authors designed these fingerprints they assumed that the numbers would always be between 0 and 100. However, in fraud every number is possible. Although the tally sheets do not show any turnouts of over 100% (it’s prevented by the software), an inspection of the Declaration of Results (DoR) forms show that in many cases of ballot box stuffing ‘overstuffing’ took place and the DoR form shows more ballots casted than registered voters” (Schoonderwoed, P: 57-58, 2021).

This here just shows the algorithm and the difference numbers through the process of counting the ballots doesn’t add up. There are more casted ballots than registered voters. That is just the proof of the misgivings of this election and how it was predetermined. When this sort of malpractice is securing one man to “win”.

The main contributor to the rigging of these elections was ballot box stuffing. 409 polling stations across Uganda saw a 100% voter turnout, which is impossible give that the voter register is fixed 10 months before the elections. A total of 1333 polling stations had a voter turnout of 90% and according to election experts that is not possible under free & fair elections. Scientific research is presented in the form of election fingerprints that show that the correlation of high voter turnout and high Museveni scores is typical for rigged elections such as in Uganda and Russia” (Schoonderwoed, P: 76, 2021).

This here shows the proof and the systematic rigging. This is just the technical aspect of it. Not all the other techniques used, which is important, but the end-game of any election is the numbers-game. Where the winner takes all and the majority matters. An rigged election just needs the numbers, but not the true will of the general public or the voters. That is the gist of it.

A nation wide comparison of DoRs collected by UVote and official tally results show over 120 polling stations where the DoRs were illegally changed or fraudulent. One such DoR for the Nebbi Anyang polling station received international attention after the Electoral Commission denied that 84 Kyagulanyi votes were changed into 8 Kyagulanyi vote” (Schoonderwoed, P: 77, 2021).

This here is just a final one and shows the acts being made by the state to ensure another term for the incumbent. There was not other way to see this. The “Rigged” Report is very clear and addresses the significant actions made and what it resulted in.

We know today that it went into as usual, that every five years Museveni swears himself in at Kololo Independence Grounds on the 12th May of the election year. That happened today because of the “legitimacy” the recent election gave him. Though the Report shows that he stole and bashes himself in glory of rigging an election. That is really tragic, but the Report also states facts many of us has said. That this regime rigged the 2011 and 2016 as well and the ‘election fingerprint’ evidence shows that.

So, if people are saying “Museveni is not my President”. I understand them. This election is yet another one he rigged to rule supreme. He doesn’t have the love of the people, but is elected by the algorithm, ghosts and goats, not voters as he should have been. However, that is not important when you value guns, arms and heavy weaponry over the public. That is why the Report is important to show the way the regime did it and prove it to the whole world to see. Peace.