Opinion: Amama Mbabazi has returned

Was my name proposed by President Museveni? I don’t know. What I know is that each of the Presidents of the member states, including President Museveni, have confidence in me”Amama Mbabazi (16.02.2022)

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) member and former Go-Forward/The Democratic Alliance Presidential Candidate Amama Mbabazi is now in good favours with the State House and the President after the fallout in 2014, which lead too years in the desert and now he has returned to the fold.

His CV is extensive, as described on the World Economic Forum page: “1975, degree in Law, Makerere University; PGD in Legal Practice. 1986-1992, Chairman of the Permanent Tripartite Commission of East African Cooperation and Director-General, External Security Organization; 1997-2001, Minister of State in President’s Office; then Minister of State for Foreign Affairs; 1999-2000, Chairman Political Committee for countries involved in Congo conflict; 2004-06, Attorney-General; 2006, Minister of Defence; 2009-11, Minister for Security. Since May 2011, Prime Minister of Uganda; leads government business in Parliament. Secretary-General, National Resistance Movement, the ruling Party” (World Economic Forum – People – Amama Mbabazi).

This man has done a lot before he went into “opposition” as a presidential candidate and we know he has returned to go graces. The man has become the Special Envoy to South Sudan and Ethiopia. While today it’s official that his the Chairman of the Continental Think-Tank “Global Africa Security Foundation”, which is created by President Yoweri Tibuhurwa Kaguta Museveni and President Denis Sassou-Nguesso after the Oyo Mini-Summit earlier this month. The headquarters will be in Dakar, Senegal. Which means the chairman has to extensive travel in his operative state between Kampala, Dakar, Juba and Addis Ababa.

If this isn’t the return of Mbabazi nothing is. This shows that Museveni trust him and offers him plum-jobs. At one point he was seen as one of the most corrupt men of East Africa. He was a well known figure and the scandals surrounded him. The way of which he operated both the NRM party and his position within the cabinet. That was just his style and fashion, as a trusted man of the party and of the President. This is why he could get away with it and he defended it too.

Mbabazi was such a vocal representative of the state, as he has defended the NRM in many instances as well. This is why the President seems fit to have him back. He knows that Mbabazi will have his back and be supportive. They have known each other all these years and anything else would be strange. Especially, since the “opposition” enterprise didn’t go forward, but was a step backwards for the internal organizer.

It will be striking to see him defend the causes of “No Change” on a continental level, as the new foundation is made in the spirit of being against coup d’etat’s and putsch. That will be a travel for a man who has followed the NRM from early stages and been a permanent member of the party. So, to see this happening only makes sense.

As he is now regarded as the trustees of the legacy of Museveni. His one of the men who has been by his side and delivered what he has needed. Other than using his standing and causing a stir, which seems like ages ago. He has now gotten into good graces and that is evident. If he wasn’t he wouldn’t be a Special Envoy and be Chairman of the newly minted foundation.

That’s why you know he will carry the wishes of the President and be his token soldier defending his causes there. Peace.

Opinion: Have the Ministry of Foreign Affairs lost 160 vehicles in the last few years?

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs led by Gen Jeje Odongo is appearing before the Foreign Affairs Committee of Parliament to answer different questions raised by the committee. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has raised concern over the poor state of fleet vehicle for transporting dignitaries. According to PS Vincent Bagiire, the Ministry is using old fleet from the 2007 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting which are “Nolonger fit for purpose” (Parliament of Uganda, 13.01.2022).

When reading this from the Parliament of Uganda handle on Twitter. I was boggled, because it was only last year when the Chinese Ambassador in Uganda handed over 70 vehicles to then Minister of Foreign Affairs Sam Kuteesa. That happened in the end of March ahead of summits, which was supposed to be held later in the year. The Chinese government spent 5 millions United States Dollars on these SUVs last year.

Therefore, when Gen. Odongo says the Foreign Ministry has “ancient” cars from the CHOGM summit. The state also bought another additional 80 vehicles ahead of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Conference (CPC) in 2020. Therefore, the Ministry and the state should have vehicles in their car-lot. They have not only bought these 80, but gotten donated another additional 70 cars in the year after.

It seems to be the time to re-issue the statement from the Auditor General Report of 2021:

Furthermore, I observed that 38 entities (76.0%) out of the 50 entities did not have a specific policy or guidelines on Motor vehicle management to guide the usage and eliminate theft, losses, wastage and misuse of motor vehicles. This was in addition to the absence of a comprehensive standardized fleet management policy of Government. Different aspects of government vehicles management are found in different policies and guidelines cited in various government documents, such as; the Uganda Public Service Standing Orders 2010, the Public Procurement and Disposal Act, 2014, and Treasury Instructions, 2017. This affects the entities’ ability to address the unique motor vehicle management challenges which may not be envisaged in the standing Orders and Treasury Instructions” (OAG February 2021).

So, it seems like the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no control or policy in concern to their car park. They are one of these entities with no management of the car park. That is very clear by Odongo’s statement. As it is easy to see the Ministry have purchased and gotten donated in total 160 vehicles or cars in the last three years alone. The state and the Ministry be able to keep it up and general up-keep.

Unless, the state has suddenly issued these for others and given them to other state affiliates like appointed district officials or whatnot. That’s how it looks like to me. Because, how do you base you vehicle-park on CHOGM in 2022. When your own Ministry have bought vehicles ahead of the CPC and donated from China the year later?

Are there no accountability for the ministry and could Sam, the man just drive away with all of these to the sun-set and sell them on a car-lot in Mbarara? Because, what happened to all of them or they given to the former Ministers employees at Entebbe International Airport?

Since, cars cannot vanish, unless it is part of a Hollywood script or a car lost at a plot forgotten by the state. In such a manner of which, Mobutu had hidden vehicles and his administration held vehicles in foreign missions, which years later was found in forgotten garage abroad. Therefore, is that the issue of the Ministry in Uganda too?

Because, how do you loose 160 vehicles in the time span of about 3 years? Peace.

Opinion: Nobody got burned like Mbabazi [and that’s why nobody aims at the King from within]

Today the former speaker of the Parliament and now Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Kadaga came out with a statement denouncing any sort of ambition or want to stand as Presidential Flag-bearer in the National Resistance Movement (NRM). This after what she calls “fictitious reports” on social media about a possible candidacy for Presidency in 2026.

We know it was bad enough that she didn’t follow party-line and stood as a candidate for Speakership the third time in a row, because the NRM CEC did support her bid in the 11th Parliament. Alas, she has already rebelled once and gotten off the hook. While getting a plum-job after losing her prestigious role to Jacob Oulanyah.

What we are seeing here is that Kadaga have learned from history. That is there is no value in blind ambition or even aiming at the throne. You will just get your wings clipped and become quickly a “stalwart” of the party. Nearly a useless historical without any office or paid leave. The party and the state will just throw out and forget all the time you spent making a career within. Unless, you humble yourself and degrade yourself, in such a manner, of which the King gets his praise and his honour.

If you do that, you can get back into good grace. Hold talks and even get considered by the state for positions. This being Gilbert Bukenya who has gotten a role within the party or Mbabazi who has held secret talks with His Excellency.

Amama Mbabazi is the one that went all flying high, as the Prime Minister and Secretary General of the party. He aimed from within and tried to cause an up-evil. Mbabazi sought for the throne and the title. While seeking to do it from within. He thought for some reason that he could conquer and takeover from his master. However, that never happened and the independent candidacy on a NRM ticket became a thing. As his pressure group “Go-Forward” was able to oversee and become the flag-bearer of a joint-opposition coalition with The Democratic Alliance (TDA/Go-Forward) in the 2016 General Election. Nevertheless, the results was bogus and hopeless, he didn’t stand a chance and was humiliated on a grand scale. While the other opposition was rigged out of the title and the whole game. Therefore, the game-plan of Mbabazi was flawed from the outset and he should have known this.

Mbabazi showed the world that the NRM is only for Museveni and his clientele. The Supreme Leader and Majesty is the one and only. Nobody can challenge or even consider replacing him. That is treason and defaults you from ever having any sort of serious role or honourable title. You will be humbled and put in place. That’s the NRM Way and Mbabazi should have known better, but clearly he didn’t.

Alas, that’s why we are here in 2021. As nobody wants to go through life like Mbabazi did in 2015 and 2016. Wait for years and be secluded like a virus and be under self-imposed lockdown in your own compound. Just because you challenged His Excellency. Nobody with a sound mind will do this, unless they are faking it and trying to act like opposition. Nevertheless, Mbabazi has shown the world something and the genie is out of the bottle.

Kadaga wouldn’t have a half chance and would be an afterthought. She would be the “afternoon delight” and become a skit before half-time. That’s why the Second Round K.O. would be brutal and her career wouldn’t be able to resurrect. Unless, Jesus would bless her coffers and the Catholic church would atonement her sins. Then she might have a shot and would be able to carry the cross. However, we know the son is the only one who is allowed to have this blind ambition. Peace

Opinion: FDC always wants to be United on its own terms…

Well, I never wanted to do this, but the way Patrick Oboi Amuriat and other FDC leaders have acted lately. It is time to challenge the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and their manners. This isn’t anything new… just like after the recent elections, the FDC and the leadership went on a rampage against National Unity Platform (NUP). Even after the NUP asked for meeting and coordination with the other opposition parties.

Now, this week the FDC has launched a new opposition coalition in the People’s Front for Transition (PFT). Nothing wrong in doing that, but they didn’t do in a way, which the NUP felt at home there. Neither has the FDC or NUP resolved the previous coalition of United Forces for Change (UFC) which was founded in 2020 ahead of the polls. So, it is really questionable to start a fresh one this quick.

The FDC wasn’t that diplomatic or helpful with all parties in the 2011 Inter-Party Cooperation. A coalition where the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP) didn’t participate in. As they felt the way it was launched and created was to benefit FDC and their flagbearers. That’s why dropped out of it.

In 2016, there was another coalition made ahead of the polls. The Democratic Alliance (TDA) of which the FDC dropped out. Since, they didn’t get the flagbearer and they we’re afraid to support other parties within the coalition. As, the FDC was seen as the biggest party and they felt betrayed that they wouldn’t have the Presidential Candidate. The TDA eventually went for Amama Mbabazi, as he was independent candidate for a pressure group at that time.

Now, in 2021 after the polls and with an unsuccessful stint with the UFC. Dr. Kizza Besigye is again launching a new coalition. It is filled with fractions of the DP and UPC party. Also with Conservative Party, JEEMA, People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and others too. However, it does not have the biggest opposition party the NUP. That means it isn’t a totally united force. Neither, does it have the main fractions of the DP & UPC. Which renders the question of the power and ability to widen the objectives of coalition in question.

In this way, it seems like again the other parties have to accept the FDC terms and perspective join forces. Not that the FDC have to meet and greet the others. They just have to follow the suit and the ideals of what the FDC or Besigye is saying. Besigye means well and the ideals his committed too. We can all agree upon, but this haven’t been well coordinated or successful. When only these are showing up and showing intent.

Maybe, the likes of the NUP feels betrayed themselves and humiliated by the way the FDC answered the callings earlier in the year. When the FDC wanted to even revoke or relinquish the membership of the FDC MPs who joined the Shadow Government. Heck, the FDC leadership went high and mighty against the NUP. Therefore, the FDC haven’t been forthcoming or concerning the NUP. Until, the the launch of PFT this week.

It seems like the FDC needs to reconsider their movements sometimes. Especially, when people are supposed forget how they acted just a few months ago. When the NUP even tried to show an olive-branch and that got dismissed. Why should the NUP jump on the bandwagon without hesitation? Because, the FDC is so unique. That everyone is supposed to follow it blindly?

No, that isn’t fair to the NUP. Neither would the FDC accept that. That is why they would have felt betrayed, if they were automatically part of the TDA without a shadow of a doubt. This is how it looks like and it’s not cool.

The FDC should know better. I don’t know if it’s entitlement after years as the upper-dog in the opposition. They have fought and can be an inspiration for the next generation. The FDC isn’t dead, but isn’t as viable and strong as it was. Besigye has still power and ability to sway opinion. However, FDC better act more cordial and be more sincere. They cannot bushwhack others to submission. That is not how things works.

The NUP is free to join or not. Just like it didn’t IPOD either. They are finding their own path and that should be respected at this point. The NUP tried with the FDC in the UFC, which was useless. So, why should they trust in the PFT? Peace.

Opinion: The party of rebels cannot tolerate rebels

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) was born out a rebellion. That is at least their own tales and ethos, on how it went into existence. How they went to the bush and fought the government to topple it in the 1980s. That is the gist of it all…

That’s why it’s hypocritical and funny that it’s acting so swiftly and hard on rebels within its own rank. They are doing this constantly. Rebecca Kadaga is getting the same treatment as plenty before her. There is nothing new in this and the acts of vengeance coming her way. We have seen before and how the party dismantle and destroy its rebels.

That’s a mere fact in 2021. That nobody and no one should challenge Museveni. The vanguard and the principal sole custodian of the party. In his own spirit, the living being of the party, that everyone is supposed to adore and worship. He is the majesty and they are his court. The jester, the confidant and his servants. They are all there to follow and be inspired by him.

That’s why nobody should question him or even dare to be disregard to his every action. They shouldn’t dare or even think about it. It is ironic, but also the modus operandi of the party. That no one should even question or insult the high mighty. The ones who has aspirations or even dreams of succeeding him get a scorched earth tactic too. Everything that can be burned, will be burnt and there will be left no witnesses behind.

Kadaga will go through the same issues as other before her. Where the rants, the rouge actions will cost her. The party will sanction and take actions against her. She did the inevitable and stood up against their decision, which wasn’t her to make. Just like others who had ambition and wants to run against Museveni. These have been wing-clipped and humiliated too.

This being Mbabazi, Bukenya and other rebel MPs. Who has been kicked out screaming without any hesitation or worry? Since everyone knows where the power resides and where the final judgement is ordered. The same knew Kadaga perfectly well, since she’s been on top and smelled the roses. She has seen people come and go. Kadaga knows but thought she could be above it.

It is only one man who is above it and we know who that man is. It is not Jesus Christ or God Almighty, no it is Museveni. Mr. Sunday is never to be opposed or even consider a ill-thought about. You are never supposed to cross him or date to double-cross him. If you do… you are in deep water and could soon sleep with the fishes. Therefore, Kadaga should have known this.

She has seen how people fall off the cliff and never returns. However, she has offended the don and her time has come. She had her little rebellion and now is forced to face the consequences. There are only one General and one Chairmen, the rest are disposable. That is the initial gist of it all… Peace.

Opinion: Kadaga can blow up a lot of smoke

Fellow Ugandans, I have come to inform the people of Uganda that my party has opted not to give me the party flag for Speaker of Parliament. I have therefore decided to run as an independent” – Rebecca Kadaga (23.05.2021).

Today and in the recent days it’s all natural that Rebecca Kadaga gets in her feelings. That she puts on Drake and sing along to sad tunes. That’s all natural at this point. She has had a long stint or a decade in the role as the Speaker in Parliament. In the 11th Parliament her fate is sealed and there is no way for her to win.

The National Resistance Movement Central Executive Committee have decided to put someone else forward to be the speaker in this term. That means Kadaga’s fall is inevitable. She has lost her position and office over night. That was to be expected and a trade-off would happen behind the scenes. However, Kadaga seemed to think she was entitled to this.

That’s why she suddenly wants to run as an Independent in the Speakership race. However, the loyalty and the party cadres of the NRM is supposed to follow party line. Meaning, she will no way in hell be able to conquer or overcome the obstacle of the NRM party in the 11th Parliament. There is no way they will vote in favour of her and her cause. That’s a no go and they will not defy the NRM CEC.

The Parliament is supposed to elect the speaker. That’s not supposed to happen in the State House or at a the highest party committee meeting either. However, we all know that this is a test of loyalty for the MPs. The NRM MPs who has had training at Kyankwanzi is supposed to show their character now and what they learned. That is to loyal to the cause and follow the NRM Way. This means the decisions put forward by the NRM CEC is final. Even if the stipulations of law and parliamentary procedure doesn’t have anything about minutes or meeting outside the chambers of the national assembly.

Still, here we are and we know the drill. Kadaga can cry rivers and run as independent. However, we know perfectly well that these MPs are subjects for their President and needs to follow his direction. If not they will suffer and be punished like no tomorrow. That’s why the game is set and it’s rigged in favour of the people who are anointed by the “high above”.

What is funny is that Kadaga knows this and have been breathing in this system for years. She’s not new to this and she seen it all. The fallouts, the break-up’s and the make-ups. She has seen how Mbabazi, Tumukunde and Bukenya have all had their turns. Kadaga knows this and accepted this.

Nevertheless, it is like its fine while your singing praises and eating. It is now evident that her meal-ticket is over and someone else’s turn. That hurts her pride and her stomach. She’s afraid of getting hungry and goes into battle mode. Even if that is a failure from the start.

Kadaga has battled the opposition. She has been a loyal soldier and one the bidding of the President. Severed him diligently and delivered what he asked. Nevertheless, it is never enough and he got priorities. The President have to trade-off political pieces to get the puzzle together. That’s why she is sacrificed for this.

Though we know and she knows there is silver-lining. At the end of the day. If she had taken it and swallowed her pride. The President and the NRM would have given her another office with perks and allowances. Kadaga wouldn’t have be the speaker, but be at service with a fancy title.

Now she sings the songs of defiance. That’s a game she is bound to fail. Especially, when the stacks are all against her. This is only a play for pity and there is little to nothing to gain. Only more misery. It is like she’s forgetful and thinks she’s above it all.

Sorry madam, but your not. You are just another pawn and a useful idiot for his highness. He had the use of you and if you played your cards right. He would have offered you another role later on. However, now that you get into combat mode. He will make you suffer and you’ll regret ever participating in his games. Because now for the first time, you’ll get to see the dark-side of his reign. Peace.

The Correct Way: Museveni’s crudeness towards Mbabazi

If you want to lead people for a long time, never eat when they (followers) have not eaten. My experience is that if you eat alone, it is very risky. I managed to destroy Mbabazi in 2016 that way. He went and gave money to some leaders and I got the information. I went and told their followers that these people have gotten money and are eating it alone. That was the end of Mbabazi. Be careful on that line. The correct way is you to be part of your people” Yoweri Kaguta Museveni to NRM Youth Leaders in Kitgum (17.11.2020)

Now that there is stories out that Amama Mbabazi might return back to National Resistance Movement (NRM). As the President is able to retain on the Most Valuable Players (MVP) at the party. He also have to nurture his brilliance and his schemes. This by sowing his manipulation and his utter wisdom.

This here will fall flat within the headlines, as they will focus on the sheer brutality on the opposition. Rightfully so, as the numbers of deceased is rising and the amounts of injured as well. Therefore, this story in hindsight is small, but proves a very important thing.

President Museveni is not only gathering direct intelligence on his opponents. Using that intelligence to get a upper-hand. He does that to crush them. Something he has promised. Ahead of 2016. Amama Mbabazi had the Pressure Group of Go Forward and was the Presidential Candidate in the Opposition Coalition – The Democratic Alliance (TDA). However, that all fall flat and he didn’t create a huge spark.

Still, Mbabazi was seen as wise man and a leader who was capable of organizing and getting things done. That is why Museveni have trusted him countless of times and been a loyal cadre through thick and thin. Until, he jumped ship. Tried to aim for the throne and got kicked out. Therefore, running as an independent.

What we are seeing though. Is interesting as this is what he surely have tried to do elsewhere as well. Surely, he has tried to hook-up and ensure loyalty by feeding some FDC sympathizers and activists. Now, his surely trying to inflict damage and hurt the campaign of Bobi Wine. Just like he has taken away Ashburg Katto, Jenifer Full Figure and others who was associated with People Power. Sure that was in the same way he did with Go Forward. However, it didn’t work out with Bobi Wine. It didn’t cause so much harm. Since the idea and the organization was more vital, than the Presidency maybe has anticipated.

The way Museveni speaks of Mbabazi shows that he believes he can pay everyone off. That he can pay the ones he need and they will loose. This is the long-con. That he can pay-off individuals and destroy campaigns and parties. The President can infiltrate and create a self-destruction from within, because of the common greed. That is why he wants to ensure everyone eats.

This is very telling. A very simple story. Not a beautiful one. Neither, a proof of good leadership. But a self help book to cronies and patronage. This is not proper guidance of a leader. It proves his conning ways. This here is a lesson on how he uses people and tricks their followers to change their ways. Peace.

Opinion: Beatrice Anywar is a lesson on how unforgiving politics can be…

Any minute there is an opportunity, I will go to President Museveni with no regret. He is a great leader because he is tolerant. He is able to listen to some of us,”Beatrice Anywar (December 2017).

At one point in her career. What is sad is that Beatrice Anywar was respected, honoured and feared. She was seen as a person of moral and resilience. A person who would stand up against oppression and for just causes. That was why she was nicknamed “Mama Mabira”, as she fought against illegal landgrabbing of Mabira Forest and using it for sugar-cane plantations.

Alas, that is years ago. Ahead of 2016 her ugly side was shown. As she walked around with Amama Mbabazi and his Go Forward. While, she was still contesting in the Forum for Democratic Change for Kitgum Municipality MP seat. This was after she had nominated Mbabazi, which was seen as a betrayal in the eyes of the FDC. 

In march 2018 she was accepted by the President and she also became a Member of the NRM. That leaving all doubts about her future. As she was spotted everywhere in yellow dresses and defending her change of heart. Beatrice even held a rally introducing Museveni to Kitgum as her guest.

She was appointed in december 2019 to the Cabinet and became a minister. So just mere months later her relevance for the President and party is shown.

Beatrice have left the FDC in 2016 to run as a independent after showing allegiance to Amama instead of Besigye. That is why she shown her self to the public by doing this alone.

Now, she is even more lost. She tried to run in the NRM, but wasn’t even on the ballot. She lost the NRM Primaries without even trying. She’s a NRM Member and a Minister. However, she’s not useful or have a standing anymore. Beatrice is even getting the cold shoulder, as the President doesn’t pick up her calls.

Anywar was once respected. She had it all. Fought the good fight and was behind people. Instead of building on that reputation. Beatrice decided to be selfish and get quick fixes to power. Her decisions now follows her.

Anywar first betrayed the FDC. Than, she has betrayed her opposition fellows totally by leaving her Independent MP stance. She became a yellow and a person behind the President. A President who didn’t care for her or her causes. That is why she wasn’t even there on the ballot. The NRM have used her and can now leave her alone.

Beatrice Anywar have used her platform, her position for selfish gains and now has to live with it. Seen as a Iron-Lady, a Fire-Band MP. Onto a suck-up and praising to the choir. Now, she’s left alone and not even respected by her own party in Kitgum. The one she represented in Cabinet and Parliament until late.

That must hurt her pride. To be ditched and left astray. “Mama Mabira” the one with a fierce tone and standing up against injustice. Are now without a home. Kitgum NRM doesn’t respect her and feels she haven’t deserved it. The NRM haven’t even had her on the ballot. This after publicly supporting the President and his cause.

That’s shows that nothing is permanent in politics. When you gamble and trade, you either win or loose. The deal that gave her a Ministerial Position didn’t give her any other favours. She now has to yet again fight as an Independent. However, everyone knows she can be bought and isn’t an iron-lady. Just another meal-ticket politician, who can be used and forgotten. Peace.

Another Opposition Coalition (UFC) to beat Mzee: Will it work this time?

There was once upon a time the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) for the 2011. This was a coalition of six parties, while three parties later had a fall out with it and its choices. Therefore, the Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) both went out and ran on their own. DP and UPC wanted to run their own Presidential Candidates, while SDP was furious that the mayoral choice for Kampala. We know that this didn’t work at this General Election. The coalition in the end was a mix of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Conservative Party and Justice Forum (JEEMA).

For the 2016 General Election there was another Opposition Coalition in play. This was the Democratic Alliance (TDA), which consisted of various of opposition parties too. However, here the parties that pulled out of it was the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) to field their own Presidential Candidate. The ones remaining was the pressure group Go Forward (Amama Mbabazi), Pressure for National Unity (PNU) Gilbert Bukenya, Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Justice Forum (JEEMA). We see here that DP and UPC didn’t ditch it, as Norbert Mao couldn’t run and James Akena didn’t run for the Presidency this time. Because these parties challenged with Mao (DP) in 2011 and Olara Otunnu (UPC), but this round they couldn’t or wasn’t fit. That is why they supported the candidacy of Amama Mbabazi (Go Forward). We know that Amama and the TDA flame fizzled out quickly.

So, when I heard today that the Pressure Group People’s Power Movement (PPM), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Justice Forum (JEEMA), Truth and Justice (TJ), Conservative Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP) and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) are all involved in the United Forces for Change (UFC) for the 2021 General Elections.

The main leaders this time is Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC) and Robert Kyagulanyi (PPM). Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) Mugisha Muntu has opted out and at this time his right not to join. His reasons are clear, but it’s a bit funny. Because he had no issues with joining the Special Utility Vehicle (SUV) of the Democratic Party (DP) and the union of similar parties. So, in this regard it might be spite, because he would still be in the shadow of former leader and party president of the FDC. That is just how it looks from the outside looking in. When leaders from all the other opposition parties are joining. Not that its shocking, but don’t expect everyone to join the ride.

Expect the DP to fall out, as Mao has grudges with Besigye. JEEMA, TJ and CP will be on the ride the whole time. They only gain positives by it and have a bigger platform during the election cycle. However, with the past history. The grinding questions of how close the UPC is to the NRM. There will only be fringes of the party to join the UFC. Akena will not ditch the money train of the NRM Alliance to be part of UFC. Also with all the things Mao has done behind the scenes, I don’t expect him to run behind Besigye and Bobi Wine. His already a bit mad at Besigye for some unfortunate reason. So, we can only imagine that he will ditch out here for the DP Block and whatever he calls it. So, I anticipate the UPC and DP to tell its members to come home. If they don’t than they are betraying their parties. That is why Lukwago is a TJ and not a DP anymore.

Let me clear after all that said: Yes, I want change, but if you cannot see a pattern here. These platforms, these coalitions aren’t making it. There is a reason there is a need for many challengers. The strength, their vision and their manifestos comes out and can change things up. To beat the NRM by the polls, by an election is futile. That has been proven since 1986. Not because of lack of trying. Not because there haven’t candidates suitable or popular to beat Museveni. No, because there haven’t been the will to give way for a peaceful transition. Museveni will not loose now either. He will rig the election into oblivion. No matter what the opposition throws at it, the results will be about the same. Just different faces, unless they want to show civil disobedience and actually attack the heart of the government. Break it down to its knees and ensure its downfall. That will cost, but through the polls. I can assure you, nothing will happen. The status quo continues and the same party reign supreme. They got the guns and the authorities to send the others packing.

The UFC will have the same fate as IPC and TDA. Maybe more finesse behind Bobi Wine than a insider and friendly NRMer in Amama. Still, the UFC will only have a fools hope. Just like Frodo in the Lord of the Rings. As Gandalf said in ‘The Return of the King’:

Tell me,’ he said, ‘is there any hope? For Frodo, I mean; or at least mostly for Frodo.’ Gandalf put his hand on Pippin’s head. ‘There never was much hope,’ he answered. ‘Just a fool’s hope, as I have been told. And when I heard of Cirith Ungol–‘ He broke off and strode to the window, as if his eyes could pierce the night in the East. ‘Cirith Ungol!’ he muttered. ‘Why that way, I wonder?’ He turned. ‘Just now, Pippin, my heart almost failed me, hearing that name. And yet in truth I believe that the news that Faramir brings has some hope in it. For it seems clear that the Enemy has opened his war at last and made the first move when Frodo was still free. So now for many days he will have his eye turned this way and that, away from his own land. And yet, Pippin, I feel from afar his haste and fear. He has begun sooner than he would. Something has happened to stir him.”- J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King

In the same way I look at this UFC. Not because I don’t want the junta, the militarized government and the oppressors out the Republic and into a proper civilian government. I want all of that to happen. The injustice has been going on for far too long. However, using similar tricks to beat the same dragon. I doubt it will have affect. Even if it has a new potential leader and could be the Frodo who gets the ring to Mount Doom to change history of Middle Earth to break the power of Sauron and Mordor. Still, that is a fools errand to believe that, even if the hope is there. Just like it was plenty of times with Besigye.

We need the hope and have fate that someone will bring the ring to Mount Doom. However, is this the team and the pacifier to stop the NRM? I don’t have the answer… I really don’t, but I just want them to challenge the authorities head-on and not play games that has been fought before. The names changes, but the end game stays the same.

Bobi Wine is maybe Frodo here, but that is only a lucky guess. Then Besigye is his Samwise Gamgee. But we don’t know that and Sauron continues to deploy his troops and ensure that no one gets unscratched by his army of Orcs. Right? You get the drill?

I don’t have the answers, but I just feel we are repeating history without crossing the authorities with enough power and finesse. We are doing the same old thing and getting nowhere. Stalling awaiting for the lucky brother to find the Ring in the river and get turned into Gollum. Instead of being a Frodo going into a journey, which will change everything, but will also cost. Peace.

Opinion: Mbabazi Versus Tumukunde – A dab difference on their road to presidential aspirations

In everything I do, I will continue to embody the true objectives and identity of the NRM. But as a founding member, lawyer and patriotic citizen I will not bind myself to illegalities” – Amama Mbabazi, 31st July 2015

There are similarities in some aspects between Amama Mbabazi and Lt. Gen. Henry Tumukunde, who both aimed at the throne and became Presidential Aspirants. However, there are some significant differences in the approach here. Which makes the one differ from the other. Also, make the latter one less sincere.

Mbabazi Brief Timeline:

Mbabazi was the Prime Minister and Secretary General in the National Resistance Movement. He resigned as Prime Minister in September 2014. However, by June 2015 he wrote in a scatting letter to the President, that he didn’t only intend to run as the Party Chairman, but also the NRM Presidential Flag-Bearer. This coming from the former SG and PM. That really showed some flex. While on the 31st July 2015, President Museveni picked his nomination forms. On the 31st July 2015, Amama Mbabazi said he would go “independent”. However, by September 2015 he was cleared as the Flag-Bearer. By 1st November 2015 President Museveni without any shock was nominated as the NRM Presidential Flag-bearer for the General Election of 2016.

However, with Lt. Gen. Tumukunde he haven’t even tried to play ball with the Party his supposed to be a part of and been representing for ages. His been a high ranking official, both in army and in cabinet. Therefore, Tumukunde knows the party and its constitution, also knows the reach and the possible approaches of these affairs. Therefore, just like the arrest of the bodyguards of Mbabazi, the same was bound to happen to Henry as well; which it did!

The last time Tumukunde held a higher office was in March 2018. The moment on Twitter, when Museveni proclaimed this: “This was President Museveni’s statement on twitter: “In exercise of powers granted to me by the Constitution, I have appointed Gen Elly Tumwine as the Security Minister. I have also appointed Mr Okoth Ochola as the Inspector-General of Police. He will be deputised by Brig Sabiiti Muzeei”” (NBS Television, 04.03.2018). Meaning that Tumukunde was sacked as the Minister of Security. Since, then he has been out of office and without power.

There was reports of him starting this in March 2019 and by later on in middle of July 2019 he was mobilizing youth and supposed to run for the office of Lord Mayor of Kampala. This was spread all over the waves, the NilePost, New Vision and everyone was running stories of it. He was even quoted: “Mark my words, I am the next Kampala lord mayor” (Nilepost, 23.07.2019).

Clearly, his pathway has changed and his motivation has as well. Even if the NRM had already handpicked Museveni as their sole candidate, which wouldn’t surprise anyone at this stage. The President was endorsed for it by early February 2019. By March 2019, there was a resolution where the party had clearly endorsed and ensured in writing that Museveni was the only Flag-Bearer for 2021. Therefore, when Tumukunde started his mobilization and the NRM was already on their way validating its chief.

However, what differs here. Is that Tumukunde was already sacked and didn’t show early on his true intention. Neither, did he like Mbabazi even try internally to challenge Museveni. He never did. No letter, no public outrage. Just a peeing on the public with consultations for a bid for Lord Mayor of Kampala.

It wasn’t until the end of February, when he sent a letter to the Electoral Commission, confessing his true desire. Tumukunde went out on a limp mobilizing for his Mayoral aspirations. However, that wasn’t his true face.

Mbabazi went out with fire, he aimed directly at the king. He didn’t take the public for a fool in that sense. He wasn’t truthful about his independent strike, as a member of NRM during his campaign. However, he was honest enough at least showing finesse in the way he went forward as a man who wanted the throne.

Tumukunde has just fired loose on all canons. Like a fishing expedition and just landed on the independent steak as a Presidential Aspirant. Which is less believable, concerning the way he went out. Sacked, didn’t even consider to question the “Sole Candidate”, because he was a supposed aspirant for Mayor. However, with time he rather wanted to be a big-shot.

Now we are seeing it all. We see the different approaches and it is only two elections in succession. Where to high ranking NRMers are aiming at the throne. Both doing it independently and on their own. However, don’t expect it bear fruits. Mbabazi has just returned back home and anticipate a sweet office later in return.

Tumukunde might think people are fools. If you really aspired for this, why did you something else just a year ago? Peace.

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