Opinion: The PFT of Besigye doesn’t seem well-planned…

It is not the first time that Dr. Kizza Besigye and his allies in the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) have worked alone and without much outside support. However, the establishment of the People’s Front for Transition (PFT) isn’t build on a strong foundation. At least not in concern with other opposition allies.

This week it is clear that Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP) isn’t really involved as it was stated in the launch. Where some fractions of the parties was part of it. There was one piece of UPC members and the DP Block. Those have been dismissed by the parties itself.

As well, as the spats and dismissals from the National Unity Platform (NUP) which would be the most important ally at this stage and time. The NUP is the biggest opposition party and has a similar agenda, as the FDC. They are maybe different in the manner of which they operate. Still, the objective and the end-game is about the same. NUP and FDC both works for a peaceful transition from dictator Museveni.

That Besigye have the best intentions and will with the upstart of PFT. I have no doubt in my mind and with his experience of doing this. I know that he wants to succeed and wants to assemble a collective for change. He doesn’t want people to give up and stop the cause. A cause, which he has dedicated his whole career too.

The PFT has been painful from the start. There is usually growing pains of an organization, but this is just hectic from the early beginning. You can wonder how this was communicated and organized. Since everyone in and around is either distancing itself from it or they are minor fractions participating, except for the main party FDC.

This means that except for the FDC. Justice Forum (JEEMA), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and People’s Progressive Party (PPP). There isn’t much great support in the opposition for it. There is no joint effort here and there is nothing pushing it together. Because, the launch made it believe to be bigger.

The JEEMA, SDP and PPP isn’t parties of which has big significance. They are JEEMA and PPP have one MP each and that’s about it. The SDP was part of DP Block and seems like the Michael Mabikke’s briefcase party. Therefore, the strenght of the pressure group or coalition is on thin-ice.

It is not like it’s a big unite and brigade. Yes, they are collective, but not a sort of unifying you would need. The PFT is weak because of this. When the DP and UPC also reacts like they do. Then you know that the PFT wasn’t launched in order to have them sufficiently participating in it. Like there wasn’t meetings, consultations or even gatherings to make it happen. Therefore, it wasn’t only NUP who ditched out of it. Nearly nobody joined and the ones who did… well … they have to move mountains with their bare hands.

The PFT needs a boost and Besigye needs to consult with the others. That is if it has a mission and goal to be strong functioning unit of the opposition. Clearly, there has been an aftermath that the PFT didn’t want. This is just jaded and not how it supposed to look. Peace.

Opinion: FDC always wants to be United on its own terms…

Well, I never wanted to do this, but the way Patrick Oboi Amuriat and other FDC leaders have acted lately. It is time to challenge the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and their manners. This isn’t anything new… just like after the recent elections, the FDC and the leadership went on a rampage against National Unity Platform (NUP). Even after the NUP asked for meeting and coordination with the other opposition parties.

Now, this week the FDC has launched a new opposition coalition in the People’s Front for Transition (PFT). Nothing wrong in doing that, but they didn’t do in a way, which the NUP felt at home there. Neither has the FDC or NUP resolved the previous coalition of United Forces for Change (UFC) which was founded in 2020 ahead of the polls. So, it is really questionable to start a fresh one this quick.

The FDC wasn’t that diplomatic or helpful with all parties in the 2011 Inter-Party Cooperation. A coalition where the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP) didn’t participate in. As they felt the way it was launched and created was to benefit FDC and their flagbearers. That’s why dropped out of it.

In 2016, there was another coalition made ahead of the polls. The Democratic Alliance (TDA) of which the FDC dropped out. Since, they didn’t get the flagbearer and they we’re afraid to support other parties within the coalition. As, the FDC was seen as the biggest party and they felt betrayed that they wouldn’t have the Presidential Candidate. The TDA eventually went for Amama Mbabazi, as he was independent candidate for a pressure group at that time.

Now, in 2021 after the polls and with an unsuccessful stint with the UFC. Dr. Kizza Besigye is again launching a new coalition. It is filled with fractions of the DP and UPC party. Also with Conservative Party, JEEMA, People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and others too. However, it does not have the biggest opposition party the NUP. That means it isn’t a totally united force. Neither, does it have the main fractions of the DP & UPC. Which renders the question of the power and ability to widen the objectives of coalition in question.

In this way, it seems like again the other parties have to accept the FDC terms and perspective join forces. Not that the FDC have to meet and greet the others. They just have to follow the suit and the ideals of what the FDC or Besigye is saying. Besigye means well and the ideals his committed too. We can all agree upon, but this haven’t been well coordinated or successful. When only these are showing up and showing intent.

Maybe, the likes of the NUP feels betrayed themselves and humiliated by the way the FDC answered the callings earlier in the year. When the FDC wanted to even revoke or relinquish the membership of the FDC MPs who joined the Shadow Government. Heck, the FDC leadership went high and mighty against the NUP. Therefore, the FDC haven’t been forthcoming or concerning the NUP. Until, the the launch of PFT this week.

It seems like the FDC needs to reconsider their movements sometimes. Especially, when people are supposed forget how they acted just a few months ago. When the NUP even tried to show an olive-branch and that got dismissed. Why should the NUP jump on the bandwagon without hesitation? Because, the FDC is so unique. That everyone is supposed to follow it blindly?

No, that isn’t fair to the NUP. Neither would the FDC accept that. That is why they would have felt betrayed, if they were automatically part of the TDA without a shadow of a doubt. This is how it looks like and it’s not cool.

The FDC should know better. I don’t know if it’s entitlement after years as the upper-dog in the opposition. They have fought and can be an inspiration for the next generation. The FDC isn’t dead, but isn’t as viable and strong as it was. Besigye has still power and ability to sway opinion. However, FDC better act more cordial and be more sincere. They cannot bushwhack others to submission. That is not how things works.

The NUP is free to join or not. Just like it didn’t IPOD either. They are finding their own path and that should be respected at this point. The NUP tried with the FDC in the UFC, which was useless. So, why should they trust in the PFT? Peace.

Opinion: Another year, another coaltion created by Besigye – Is this enough?

From the launch last year in 2020

Dr. Kizza Besigye have together with allies created “People’s Front for Transition” (PFT) recently with the slogan “Twetaase” which means “Let Us Save Ourselves”. The National Unity Platform (NUP) have declined to join the PFT. Therefore, the coalition or pressure group doesn’t have the biggest opposition party behind it.

Besigye isn’t alone, but it is lonely place in some regard. Since, there are long-term allies who joins him no matter what he does. He has held several of campaigns and ran with new slogans. That is something he has done with a steady pace. It is not long ago on the 15th June 2020 Besigye and Bobi Wine announced the United Forces of Change (UFC). They would start with their joint campaign “No Nedda”.

With that in mind and it’s October 2021. The UFC didn’t do anything. The FDC went their own way and the NUP did the same. In this new organization of PFT there are fraction from the UPC and DP. People’s Progressive Party (PPP), JEEMA and the Conservative Party is part of it. The FDC is the main party when both Patrick Oboi Amuriat and Erias Lukwago was participating in the launch.

This time Besigye is trying to hard. He should have tried to work on the agreement, which was already done with UFC. A coalition that hasn’t delivered or done anything. That is very clear, as the UFC was invisible and non-active during the campaigns. Therefore, Besigye should have alerted and made it relevant for Bobi Wine to use during his campaign trail. Alas, that wasn’t the case and it ended up being an photo-op.

Some might say… NUP is ditching out and not using their means to properly participate here. However, there is no binding or expectations of them to do so. This is a initiative and there is nothing in the cards that says they should join either. Because, the merits of the previous one amounted to nothing.

Who thinks the PFT will be more successful than the UFC? Or is this another IPC?

I know that Besigye means well and wants to succeed. He has had this ambition and drive for a peaceful transition most of his career. Besigye should also question himself… why is he starting yet another one?

Is he gaining anything out of this. Except having several of outfits as his start-ups. It is time to deliver results and add pressure to the regime. Yes, plenty of the opposition parties wants the regime gone. However, should Besigye negotiate more and find more allies before launching anything?

He is not the “sole” leader. Yes, Besigye is inspirational and has told the stories on how to dismantle the current leadership. Alas, people haven’t listened or gained enough attention to follow him. There is hope that one day they would. However, he needs Bobi Wine at this current time. The NUP is a growing power and they needs to be in sync.

Has Besigye outplayed himself here? Should he have moved more smart and tried to work with the NUP more closely before launching?

Or did Besigye give up on UFC? Since he maybe felt like everyone else… that this was a useless coalition. So, why expect the NUP to join another one? Peace.

Opinion: The “Scientific Elections” will unmask the brutal truth

As we are beginning the campaigns and the run-up to the elections of 2021. The reality will hit the public. We will see the truth about how the authorities and law enforcement act upon the dissidents and opposition. The regime will show it true colour and cannot act surprised. The way they do and what happens will clearly show a significant pattern. That cannot be judged on sudden reaction to an rally or a consultative meetings.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) have before the campaigns already shown unfair the society is. As they have had the capacity to hold rallies and be in the general public. While the opposition have been blocked from radio stations and holding consultative meetings. This being the pre-equal to the General Election next year.

As well, as the same rules are allowing rallies, processions and so fourth for the aspirants of the NRM. While opposition cannot even be nominated or have a press conference without being directly arrested a hot minute after. That has happen to so many, that its total obstruction of their justice and rights to campaign.

These “Scientific elections” are supposed to be like this because of the danger of COVID-19 or Coronavirus. The pandemic that are upholding social distancing and PPE. The reality is that, we will see a double standard, which will be common. The opposition not allowed to rural radio houses and up-country. While NRM can campaign both within media houses and on the streets, The posters of opposition will be taken down. The NRM can even spread posters through Bukedde, Daily Monitor and so fourth.

The Uganda Communication Committee (UCC), Uganda Police Force (UPF) and Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) will all work directly for the NRM. These will order media houses to not have opposition leaders on-air. Neither, will the UPF and the UPDF allow the opposition to greet the public. While the UCC will not block the NRM from appearing on-air and neither will law-enforcement block the NRM for greeting the public. The UPDF and UPF will walk side-by-side with the NRM aspirants.

That is why we know the game is rigged. The NRM will have all favours and always have a helping hand. The authorities and all part of the state apparatus will work for them. They are serving the NRM and not the general public. It doesn’t matter if it is DP, UPC, FDC, NUP, JEEMA or anyone else. They are troublemakers and will be hit by the state.

These elections and campaigns will not be fair. The state and all of its actors will use their mandates to put hurdles in the way of the opposition. The NRM will have a soft landing, while the others has to go on a crash-course and hope for as little damage as possible. Because, no matter what the opposition does. It will be countered and there will be resistance. The NRM will not offer any goodwill and will only cause havoc.

The NRM will use the state as their partner in crime. Every possible way to act will be punished and there will be no remorse. The state will have no sympathy and show no heart. They will not condone and not beg for forgiveness. That is because, the NRM and the state believes you where stupid to challenge it and to stand up against it. You were supposed to be blind and submissive.

The NRM will have all the perks, all the opportunities, while they will undermine and mock the opposition for their troubles. The NRM wouldn’t be able to run, if they had the same hectic mess the opposition has. The NRM would malfunction and be on self-destruction, if they met the same obstacles, which it serves all opposition. They are used to have no way, while the NRM has the big high-way and a free way of opportunities. That is a luxury, which nobody else have. This is why the “Scientific Elections” only will amplify this and expose this rotten game. Which is rotten from the head to the grassroots. A system blessed from “high above” to the lowest civil servant. Peace.

Opinion: Museveni can sleepwalk into the elections [as the opposition only aim at their own]

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) who are not caring about the guidelines or the regulations for COVID-19 or Coronavirus. Who are busy scheduling all activities ahead of the General Elections of 2021. also settling the final flag-bearers of the party. Which sometimes are the same-old, same-old and dozens of sole candidates. The NRM looks solid ahead of the elections.

At this point, as the President Museveni is busy preparing for this 8th Term since 1986. The man, the legend, the dictator and the President for Life. The supposed Fountain of Honour and His Excellency can just sleep. He can be lazy, he can squander around and even have a few scandals on his hands.

The opposition are busy scheming tearing each other apart. The Uganda People’s Congress is the NRM-Light at this point. The big-man Akena and his wife is both in the sphere of the President. They have traded perks and agreement with the NRM .The UPC is only viable in small pockets and doesn’t have the organization nor trust in the public. Because of the trade-off that Akena, Son-of-Obote did in the last election cycle.

Democratic Party have been raided, taken by everyone. Norbert Mao should by crying at home this weekend. The day of betrayal was this week and he lost his MPs. He got none of the big-men and the party is weakened. There is little left and the promise in the months ahead can’t be much. Not like they can muster such voices and cadres over night. To take the space, which these MPs left.

Forum for Democratic Change are also weakened, also many questions about where they are turning. The ghost of Besigye. While Lukwago only created questions of protocol and validity of the nomination process. No matter what it does, it has lost plenty of the faction belonging to Muntu. The pragmatic part of the FDC has left and the defiance of Besigye lingers on. We can wonder what it will do and how it will become the biggest opposition party again. It needs to show flex and muscle ahead. Needs to drop heavy hitters of flag-bearers and show it isn’t just a punchline.

One of the newcomers, who has shown new strength is Muntu and his Alliance of National Transformation (ANT). Most of this has come by weakening the FDC. The ones who was supporters and allies of Muntu is the ones that left the FDC. There are very few independents who has come, except for Kassiano Wadri. Who is also a former FDC, but had left the party already. Muntu got some good people around him, but he seems like his trying to do the same thing he always does. Saying the right things, but not really challenging status quo.

The second newcomer is the People Power Movement and the National Unity Platform. Where Bobi Wine have really scored big and creating headlines. A man who is getting support from all parties and independents. He raided the DP party and gotten several of MPs standing for the NUP. Right now the momentum of the opposition is in his hands. He even got the nudge of the DP Block and the Justice forum for the Presidency. However, JEEMA will field own MPs and not do that under the NUP flag. Showing, there are a balance of sorts and there will be honest competition.

The DP is losing big, FDC is weakened and creating uncertainty, as the biggest party and the one historically challenging the President. Museveni must be giddy that the FDC is lingering like this. Instead of having a steady line and showing resilience. The up-hill battle that persist must be tiring and that’s why its showing some fatigue.

ANT and NUP are revitalized, but they are still not that big or organized like the FDC. Bobi Wine has momentum, but he needs support from everywhere to get the final push. He got friends all around, but with purges like recently in the DP: There might be fear that does happen elsewhere too.

The NRM should be joyful that the opposition looks like this. The message is distorted and the opposition is busy seeing whose deflecting and whose staying. Not to talk about finding out who is the flag-bearer and who gets the nominations. There are so much in-fighting.

There is more talk about what’s happening between the parties. The new and the old. If the old parties have the push or if they are out of steam. We can wonder ourselves. If this is all meal-ticket politics or actual battle for change.

Museveni is lucky with this. They are not pin-point at his failures, at him tanking the economy, taking up more loans and continuing his impunity in power. He can walk free of that. Only touched a small amount of time. Instead of being the target, the one people are aiming for and proving his recklessness. That is what they should do. Expose and show the intolerant and the state sponsored brutality, which is the image of this state.

Except he gets away with that. As he visits factories, radio stations and hold speeches on the regular. He walks and travels at ease like a bird. While the others are in cages and they are not even allowed to sing. Peace.

Opinion: Everything is rigged against the opposition [doesn’t matter if it’s “Scientific” or not]

The opposition in the Republic will not win at this point in time. It isn’t because of their lack of swagger and viable candidates. This is simply, because of the status quo and the whole state machinery is working against them. There is no chance that the President and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) will give way. That’s not happening anytime soon.

The Forum for Democratic Change and National Unity Platform (People Power) parties are the most high regarded opposition. The FDC has the history, while NUP and People Power are the new renegades. This is the Kizza Besigye and Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine coming to full force as challengers to Museveni. They will gain attention and get popular. However, in the grand scheme things this will not matter. These two might win the election, might even be hugely admired by the population. However, the machinery will not let Museveni loose.

That is why the rigging will close the doors for the opposition. It is reason why I don’t mention Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), Mugisha Muntu and Democratic Party Norbert Mao. Neither is Uganda People’s Congress, James Akena or Justice Forum Asuman Basalirwa. Or whoever is running the Uganda Federal Alliance, Farmers Party or People’s Progressive Party. These lastly mentioned have enough to get an MP elected into Parliament. Not even thinking of challenging the throne.

Muntu and Mao might want to be in the big-league, but we both know they don’t have it. Neither does Akena, he is cahoots with the regime with a deal. So, when your dealing directly with NRM. You cannot anticipate the brother will do anything about it.

This is why in reality it is a battle for the FDC and NUP. These two are the parties that has to challenge and show force towards the NRM. Not, that through the ballots will make a difference at this point. The Electoral Commission, the NRM is busy scheming and preparing the results. We know who will win and that is all in the cards. To think otherwise is either naive or foolish.

The NRM will conquer, they will use all means. There is a “scientific” elections going on. That is used on the opposition, which is stopped from campaigning. While the NRM candidates are doing so, either in secret or by using government programs as a shield to allow them to meet people. That they will use the state as tool to not only campaign, but also rig the elections. This is why the opposition has no chance.

NUP and FDC knows this. They will show flex, but will they dwell on the inevitable. The ones whose moderate and pragmatic, will only benefit a small group. While the big-men of the opposition got to stand up in the midst of oppression and hardships. Knowingly they will loose, but it is a matter of how much they willing to loose in the end. Not because of lack of popularity or having backing in the public.

However, because the NRM and the state uses all means. Every single piece of intimidation and scaring tactics. Also, the use of arbitrary arrests and other means to stop the public from gatherings and organizing. Except, if you have suction or a anointed by the Movement. Then you can set-up tents, set up rallies and meetings in churches. However, the opposition is not allowed to do the same. This is another proof of the whole charade, which is going on into the polls in 2021.

If your thinking this going to be free and fair. Forget about. The state is embedded. The Police is more into politics, than actually catching thieves.

This is all just a game and we all know who is going to win. Not because the public loves him, neither that its justified. However, that is how this is played out. We can act like its not, but then I would be disingenuous. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t be fooled and just play along, but call out the nonsense as it is. Peace.

Opinion: Bobi Wine’s ideal is commendable, but his warning to Mzee will not be followed

Today, the People Power Movement hold a Presser in the home of Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine in Kyadondo East, Wakiso District. This is not the first time he has held a press conference there. That is just the way things are in the Republic. Today’s Presser is an answer to the “Scientific” elections in the revised road map for the General Elections in 2021.

We know Bobi Wine is a fierce speaker and he proven that yet again today:

Museveni, like all dictators before him, is determined to keep in power at any cost. He does not care what happens to the people of Uganda, as long as he is in State House! Fellow Ugandans, Museveni is at it again. He recently met with the Electoral Commission and gave them orders to organize what he called a scientific election. Using the coronavirus as an excuse, he is banning public rallies and other aspects of an election as we know them! No Ugandan should be fooled into believing that Museveni is doing this for the safety of Ugandans. As we speak now, most urban places are filled with people going about their usual business uninterrupted. No social distancing, no nothing. If anyone has any doubts, please visit Kikuubo, or any other urban place. Therefore Museveni and the Electoral Commission should not take Ugandans for fools” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

What he said here is the truth. Bobi Wine just said what’s needed to be said. Many wouldn’t dare saying this and with his platform he still does it. Plenty of more people will listen, because he said it. Kizza Besigye has said similar before, in other instances, but now that Bobi Wine says it. It might have more flair to it. As it yet another leader of the opposition who sees it.

But let me use this opportunity to put President Museveni on notice. You might have forgotten what you said in 1980 but we have not forgotten. On the eve of the 1980 election, you, Museveni, put Obote on notice. You said that if he rigged that election, you would go to the bush and fight against him. We have come to that point yet again. We are telling you that you either organize a free and fair election or step down peacefully, but if you continue provoking the patience of the people of Uganda, they will rise up against you and you will end up in the dustbin of history like your friend Ghadafi, like your friend Mobutu and like your friend Omar El Bashir” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

Here is revisiting history, a history that the President has been proud of and repeated so that all generations and walks of life knows. The President cannot hide that. Museveni is so proud of how he got to power and all the people he finessed to get there. We all know this, as it has been blasted for years and years to the public. He has even walked twice in the steps of the bush-war to celebrate the civil war he was the victor of back-in-the-day.

Bobi Wine’s notice is noble idea. It is righteous step. However, there is no way in hell that Museveni will hold a free and fair elections. President Museveni wouldn’t win in a free and fair election. He knows this and the whole Republic knows this. That is why he has total control of the Electoral Commission and all other authorities needed to own the state.

The opposition are right and justified to ask for a free and fair election. Anyone who takes a stand and wants to challenge for public office should be able to do so. Where everyone has the same opportunity for everyone. Where everyone has the same difficulties and everyone who becomes a candidate can win and can challenge the results without interference in the elections. However, that is not how its in the republic where the state and the incumbents of the government has an upperhand with resources and control of the Electoral Commission.

Bobi Wine and everyone else is allowed to say their grievances towards this system. A system built for Museveni and his cadres. The 2021 election will not differ from 2016, 2011, 2006, 2001 and 1996. All of these has been rigged, just like they have tried to do with every single by-election too. This is not news, but a reality that the President has created over the years.

The challenge is healthy, the challenge is needed, but hopefully not just words. But a STERN WARNING about what Bobi Wine and the United Forces for Change (UFC) will deliver. I don’t believe a second that the National Resistance Movement or the President will not rig these up-coming election. That would be a lie. A big FAT lie. This regime knows only how to win by pre-fixing the results to their advantage. To say otherwise is naive and stupid.

Bobi Wine did the right thing, but the state will not steer the wheel differently. For the simple reason: They are not willing to loose, because this is all they have. Peace.

Digital Campaigning: Expect opposition candidates to be blocked from the air-waves during the campaigns…

The Electoral Commission released the Road Map for the General Elections of 2021 today. This is so everyone involved, every stakeholder and party can adjust their programs. They can work towards the deadlines, deliver their nominated candidates and prepare for impact. We can all assume this is done for some transparency. However, there been no legislation nor any changes of substance since the 2016 General Elections. So expect another rigged race and outcome, which is already pre-fixed by the buddies within the EC.

To think otherwise in 2020 is naive and deluded. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) will own the Parliament, will hold the stranglehold on the Presidency and will only give breadcrumbs to the Opposition. That is what it does to show sympathy and also prove to donors that it has some sort of democracy. Even when all know it isn’t real and there are no level playing-field.

The Road Map today was striking and COVID-19 based, as the EC is preparing for digitally campaigning for all the parties involved. The Electoral Commission stated today this: “Mass rallies will not be allowed but campaigns will be conducted mainly through media” (EC, 16.06.2020).

With this in mind, the candidates on various of levels has a short span of time to hit the airwaves, online outlets and on the TV screens. This is coming as the state has enforced the OTT Tax and made it expensive to be on social media. The state also known for blocking opposition leaders to on the local radios. If they are sincere in this election. They will open up the radios, let the opposition candidates have conversations and appeal to the public through there. As the rural areas isn’t fully operative with internet to every village and home. There are not even electricity to every home. That is why this strategy will backfire and someone will not get the whole gist from all candidates.

We can also expect that the President and the NRM blocks the airwaves for the times of the speeches of the President. Especially in the time frame of the digitally campaigns. That is just inevitable. He will block Besigye and Bobi Wine from speaking out at the same time. He will not accept that. That is hurting his fragile ego.

There are just something we can anticipate. There will be self-made sessions on Facebook and Live Taping, which is not needed with any media house. However, if the people want to reach far and wide. Than they need to hit the airwaves, needs to be on the TV stations and be able to speak across the platforms. We have seen in the past that the Uganda Communication Commission has sanctioned Radios, TV stations for having Bobi Wine on. They have also blocked Besigye, even RDCs has blocked Besigye for appearing on Radio shows. So, we anticipate a hurdle and destructive patterns here.

The system and control from high above will be visible here. I don’t expect it to really change. However, they should if they want it to look good. I expect arrests, house-arrests and other things. Just as the opposition are trying to travel to radio stations and such. That is just the sad reality Also expect police to block stations and stop from transmitting. This is just something that will appear. Later the UCC and RDC will have an excuse and do it for “safety”. Even if the Opposition is supposed to be allowed on the airwaves. While the NRM candidates and Flag-Bearers can do whatever they feel.

This is just my imagination, but I don’t think its far fetched from the possibly reality in a few months time. Unless, they suddenly opens for rallies and then venues will be closed. Where the Opposition will be chased by the authorities and sometimes end behind bars. Peace.

Another Opposition Coalition (UFC) to beat Mzee: Will it work this time?

There was once upon a time the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) for the 2011. This was a coalition of six parties, while three parties later had a fall out with it and its choices. Therefore, the Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) both went out and ran on their own. DP and UPC wanted to run their own Presidential Candidates, while SDP was furious that the mayoral choice for Kampala. We know that this didn’t work at this General Election. The coalition in the end was a mix of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Conservative Party and Justice Forum (JEEMA).

For the 2016 General Election there was another Opposition Coalition in play. This was the Democratic Alliance (TDA), which consisted of various of opposition parties too. However, here the parties that pulled out of it was the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) to field their own Presidential Candidate. The ones remaining was the pressure group Go Forward (Amama Mbabazi), Pressure for National Unity (PNU) Gilbert Bukenya, Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Justice Forum (JEEMA). We see here that DP and UPC didn’t ditch it, as Norbert Mao couldn’t run and James Akena didn’t run for the Presidency this time. Because these parties challenged with Mao (DP) in 2011 and Olara Otunnu (UPC), but this round they couldn’t or wasn’t fit. That is why they supported the candidacy of Amama Mbabazi (Go Forward). We know that Amama and the TDA flame fizzled out quickly.

So, when I heard today that the Pressure Group People’s Power Movement (PPM), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Justice Forum (JEEMA), Truth and Justice (TJ), Conservative Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP) and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) are all involved in the United Forces for Change (UFC) for the 2021 General Elections.

The main leaders this time is Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC) and Robert Kyagulanyi (PPM). Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) Mugisha Muntu has opted out and at this time his right not to join. His reasons are clear, but it’s a bit funny. Because he had no issues with joining the Special Utility Vehicle (SUV) of the Democratic Party (DP) and the union of similar parties. So, in this regard it might be spite, because he would still be in the shadow of former leader and party president of the FDC. That is just how it looks from the outside looking in. When leaders from all the other opposition parties are joining. Not that its shocking, but don’t expect everyone to join the ride.

Expect the DP to fall out, as Mao has grudges with Besigye. JEEMA, TJ and CP will be on the ride the whole time. They only gain positives by it and have a bigger platform during the election cycle. However, with the past history. The grinding questions of how close the UPC is to the NRM. There will only be fringes of the party to join the UFC. Akena will not ditch the money train of the NRM Alliance to be part of UFC. Also with all the things Mao has done behind the scenes, I don’t expect him to run behind Besigye and Bobi Wine. His already a bit mad at Besigye for some unfortunate reason. So, we can only imagine that he will ditch out here for the DP Block and whatever he calls it. So, I anticipate the UPC and DP to tell its members to come home. If they don’t than they are betraying their parties. That is why Lukwago is a TJ and not a DP anymore.

Let me clear after all that said: Yes, I want change, but if you cannot see a pattern here. These platforms, these coalitions aren’t making it. There is a reason there is a need for many challengers. The strength, their vision and their manifestos comes out and can change things up. To beat the NRM by the polls, by an election is futile. That has been proven since 1986. Not because of lack of trying. Not because there haven’t candidates suitable or popular to beat Museveni. No, because there haven’t been the will to give way for a peaceful transition. Museveni will not loose now either. He will rig the election into oblivion. No matter what the opposition throws at it, the results will be about the same. Just different faces, unless they want to show civil disobedience and actually attack the heart of the government. Break it down to its knees and ensure its downfall. That will cost, but through the polls. I can assure you, nothing will happen. The status quo continues and the same party reign supreme. They got the guns and the authorities to send the others packing.

The UFC will have the same fate as IPC and TDA. Maybe more finesse behind Bobi Wine than a insider and friendly NRMer in Amama. Still, the UFC will only have a fools hope. Just like Frodo in the Lord of the Rings. As Gandalf said in ‘The Return of the King’:

Tell me,’ he said, ‘is there any hope? For Frodo, I mean; or at least mostly for Frodo.’ Gandalf put his hand on Pippin’s head. ‘There never was much hope,’ he answered. ‘Just a fool’s hope, as I have been told. And when I heard of Cirith Ungol–‘ He broke off and strode to the window, as if his eyes could pierce the night in the East. ‘Cirith Ungol!’ he muttered. ‘Why that way, I wonder?’ He turned. ‘Just now, Pippin, my heart almost failed me, hearing that name. And yet in truth I believe that the news that Faramir brings has some hope in it. For it seems clear that the Enemy has opened his war at last and made the first move when Frodo was still free. So now for many days he will have his eye turned this way and that, away from his own land. And yet, Pippin, I feel from afar his haste and fear. He has begun sooner than he would. Something has happened to stir him.”- J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King

In the same way I look at this UFC. Not because I don’t want the junta, the militarized government and the oppressors out the Republic and into a proper civilian government. I want all of that to happen. The injustice has been going on for far too long. However, using similar tricks to beat the same dragon. I doubt it will have affect. Even if it has a new potential leader and could be the Frodo who gets the ring to Mount Doom to change history of Middle Earth to break the power of Sauron and Mordor. Still, that is a fools errand to believe that, even if the hope is there. Just like it was plenty of times with Besigye.

We need the hope and have fate that someone will bring the ring to Mount Doom. However, is this the team and the pacifier to stop the NRM? I don’t have the answer… I really don’t, but I just want them to challenge the authorities head-on and not play games that has been fought before. The names changes, but the end game stays the same.

Bobi Wine is maybe Frodo here, but that is only a lucky guess. Then Besigye is his Samwise Gamgee. But we don’t know that and Sauron continues to deploy his troops and ensure that no one gets unscratched by his army of Orcs. Right? You get the drill?

I don’t have the answers, but I just feel we are repeating history without crossing the authorities with enough power and finesse. We are doing the same old thing and getting nowhere. Stalling awaiting for the lucky brother to find the Ring in the river and get turned into Gollum. Instead of being a Frodo going into a journey, which will change everything, but will also cost. Peace.

Opinion: Section 8 of POMA is Null- and Void, what does that mean?

Well, now the Constitutional Court came today with a striking judgment. That the Section 8 of the Public Order Management Act of 2013 is unconstitutional. Section 8 of the POMA is very clear. That gives the powers to officers and give the police the authority to block any meeting. It also gives the powers to the Police to disperse a meeting. Also, finally the sub-section also issues the officers in question the powers to assess if a person is disobeying the law or unlawfully assembles. Which makes that person liable for sentencing according to the Penal Code section 117.

Therefore, today’s judgment is vital, as the Police Force by definition now doesn’t have the authority to block any gathering. Neither disperse it or issue an order to stop the public from participate in any public meeting/gathering. This here is an direct consequence of the judgment today.

We knew this law was draconian. The whole law isn’t null and void, just one part of it, but it takes away the powers to enforce it. The Police Force, the authorities is limited by this. This law has banned concerts, public gatherings, consultation meetings, anniversary rallies, opening of political party offices and so fourth. The state has given all sorts of orders and usage of the law to an extent, where the opposition is futile. They couldn’t conduct either internal party organizations nor actually try to gain new followers, since the state stopped it or never allowed them to publicly to gather in the first place.

This law was deemed the Anti-Besigye Act, ABA, the act against Besigye and his political effort to undermine the regime. This came after the Walk to Work. Now, the opposition has one an important battle in the Courts.

There was on judge who didn’t see it like this, that was Stephen Musota. Remember that man, because he stated this, he was the one voting in favour of Section 8 of POMA. Because, there was 4-1 and therefore, it was null and void. However, Stephen stated this: “The limits are now cast in stone and are no longer at the whims or imagination of the Inspector General of Police or his authorized officers”. That is why the whims of the IGP shouldn’t be the factor to allow people to assemble or not. This is why its unconstitutional, which is stated by the other judges on this matter.

What I am suspecting will happen is that the National Resistance Movement will revise and amend this bill. To ensure they have the powers to stop meetings and such before the General Elections 2021. They have had the good need of this bill for years. This will not go away without a blast. I don’t believe the NRM will concede and give way that easily. Not when the rise of Bobi Wine and Besigye is now allowed and cannot be stopped. That is what the NRM worried about and will find new ways to silence it. Especially, when the Police Force has been preoccupied with this partisan politicking for years. Peace.