Oyam North By-Election: The sons are here to inherit the earth…

“Now the Lango cultural leaders under the leadership of the Paramount Chief Yosam Odur want the vacant Oyam North constituency seat to be reserved for the family of the late Engola” (…) ”Robert Ajal, the Prime Minister of Lango Cultural Foundation came up with the motion of fronting a family member for the Oyam North parliamentary seat during a cabinet meeting. “We should consider a possibility of being replaced by his son in parliament. We implore government to do proper investigation and get us information before the burial,” Ajal said. Dr. Christopher Oleke, the Deputy Awitong of Otikokin clan, also emphasizes that picking one of the late Engola’s children to help complete his term in parliament will be such a great gift to the family in his memory” (Charity Akullo – ‘Lango wants late minister Engola replaced by son in Parliament’, 08.05.2023, KFM.Co.Ug).

In the 11^th Parliament there is clearly a sentiment that is set. This happened in Omoro County By-Election and in Serere County By-Election. Both the sons of the late Members of Parliament was elected.

In Omoro County the President designated and ordered everyone else to back down for the son of the late speaker and MP. While in Serere County the National Resistance Movement (NRM) went with another candidate, but the constituents elected the son on a independent ticket.

Now in Lango Sub-Region and in Oyam North By-Election the cultural chiefs and leaders are now wanting the same fate. They want to ringfence the MP position to the family of Charles Engola. These leaders want another son to takeover from the late father. It is keeping the MP in the family.

Though after two recent elections, I would think the NRM should go for the former UPC and Independent Charles Krispus Ayena. While the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) should or could have Eunice Apio. However, that is up for the UPC Primaries.

This will be battle between the NRM and UPC. These are the two parties that have held offices and gotten elected in Oyam North before. Therefore, the other parties have little to no favours here. Alas, they can field candidates, but I doubt they will get any traction. Unless, they have a magnificent character out of leftfield.

The NRM will now feel the pressure, as they cannot go after the second-best option. They got to either stick with nepotism and heirloom. If not they are risking it by doing the same as they did in the Serere County By-Election. Where the was calls for the same, but they instead went for a NRM Primaried candidate. Which after Party Laws are legit but wasn’t beloved or the one the constituents wanted.

This race is already panning out and the Electoral Commission haven’t even announced the roadmap to the elections. We knew this was bound to happen, but it certainly becomes interesting when family matters are put into the mix. Peace.

Oyam North By-Election: Who will takeover after the late Charles Okello Engola?

The unfortunate death of the State Minister and MP of Oyam North, Charles Okello Engola has some consequences. First it is opening up a seat in Parliament and a Ministerial post. What will happen in the first few day, there will be plans for burial and proceedings concerning the later Minister. That is just the way these things goes, and as early as the burial is over. The plans for the seats and the offices are getting prepared. Meaning a By-Election and an appointment of a new State Minister in his stead.

Just like he goes from being a minister, he is becoming a former minister and ex-MP in the afterlife. That’s why someone will takeover his office in the cabinet and another person will takeover the seat in Parliament. This is why because of the unfortunate there will be a new By-Election.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) would do whatever it takes to retain the seat and command dominance of the North. They want to have a grand majority and want to win By-Elections. The NRM will use the state machinery and all of their tools. This means the army, police and all the intimidation will be in order. Also, in addition voter tourism, bribes and other means to prepare a victory for themselves. They would also “pre-tick” ballots and toy around Returning Forms just to “win”. So, don’t expect fair game.

What I do expect now is that the Independent Charles Krispus Ayena might vie for the NRM seat. As he was the biggest independent candidate in 2021 elections. He also came in second in the 2016 elections as a UPC candidate. Maybe even Dilla Benson would like to try and get ahead. Since he has tried to get elected as LC5 in the 2021 elections.

The Uganda People’s Congress should field a candidate in this race and should have a fair chance here. They are already elected in other parts Oyam District and UPC has a stronghold in the North. That is not only historically, but also by default in the recent elections. We can wonder if Eunice Apio wants to be the UPC candidate again.

In the last two general elections the other parties didn’t field candidates. There was only other independents. These didn’t fare well in the races. They only got scraps or bare minimum. Therefore, the ideas that an Independent candidate will get the cake is ridiculous. Especially, knowing how heavy artillery and machinery the NRM puts forward in a By-Election.

The UPC is the only party here who has a shot. The others are only fools hope. The NRM wants to retain it, but will they go for the likes of former UPC like Ayena or go for a leader like Benson.

The UPC will have it hard, but this one would be possible to crack. Especially, if they field someone within reason and maybe even the same as in 2021. Apio might have a shot, but we never know. She got 17,000 and Engola got 22,000. Time will tell, but this is now mere speculations.

As a By-Election is coming and it will be between the NRM and the UPC. Peace.

Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) – Old Challenges Continue to Pull Our Contry Backwards (02.11.2022)

Citizens Coalition for Improved Service Delivery in West Nile: Follow up action points from the meeting on 1st September 2022 on the status of electricity in West Nile (03.10.2022)

Uganda: Kisembo Ronex Tendo, former EALA MP Candidate letter to President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni – Re: Grievances Arising from the Recently Concluded Elections for Uganda’s Representatives in the 5th East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) – (03.10.2022)

EALA Elections: NRM wins 8 out of 9 [and DP get the final seat]

“UPDATE: The elected EALA representatives and the votes attained.

Akol Rose Okullu 422

Namara Denis 415

Kakooza James 405

Odongo George Stephen 403

Paul Mwasa 401

Kadogo Babirye Veronica 383

Mugenyi Mary 367

Amongin Jacquiline 338

Siranda Gerald 233” (NilePost, 29.09.2022).

My prediction got hit with one seat in the East African Legislation Assembly (EALA) Members of Parliament (MP). The one I thought was a go was the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) Fred Ebil. He didn’t get his seat and the UPC lost their seat in the EALA this period. Now, there is only National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Democratic Party (DP) who has EALA MPs in the 5^th Assembly.

Today, the NRM got their 6 candidates, which was anticipated. They got in addition two more “independent” candidates. So, in the numbers they got 8 out of 9. Jacqueline Amongin is a member of the NRM and a Pan African Parliament (PAP) Member too. So, she has represented Uganda on a NRM ticket already. Now she ran as an “independent” but everyone should know that she is associated and a member of the NRM.

The second “independent” Babirye Veronica Kadogo was the Woman Representative in the 10^th Parliament for the NRM in Buyende District. She lost her re-election bid in the General Election in 2021. She ran as an “independent” but certainly is connected to the NRM as well. To think otherwise is naive at this point.

That’s why it’s only Gerald Siranda who is from another party, the DP. The DP who had this in their agreement with the NRM. The DP-NRM Agreement had this stipulation and Siranda takes over the seat after two terms for Mbidde. Therefore, the DP gets a seat and an EALA MP.

While we saw a boycott from the National Unity Platform (NUP). The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) had a candidate that was bound to loose. Justice Forum (JEEMA) also lost, which was also scheduled to happen, as it is associated with the NUP. However, the shocker was that UPC lost their seat and didn’t get Ebil elected. Especially, since the NRM was supposed to back the UPC with this seat, but that was hallow.

The opposition didn’t really loose much. They had nothing to get to begin with. The NRM was bound for a pyrrhic victory, but today was just a painful exercise. The Speaker decided to have an early poll before the deliberations in the plenary session. This is creating the possibility for “pre-ticked ballots” and open rigging. Which is just foolish, because the NRM got the majority in the 11^th Parliament and this would be a walkover.

The ones that should feel betrayed is the UPC. They are surely not valued and isn’t getting real support. That is the party which has made agreements with the NRM. Now, their dialogue and such isn’t considered. That is saying something. We can see that Mao and DP got their way. However, the UPC was kicked out by NRM leaning “independent’s”. Peace.

Opinion: The IPOD is a lost cause

The Interparty Organisation for Dialogue (IPOD) who has gotten major funding from Democratic Government Facility (DGF) and Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD). DGF is bound to only last a few more months until December 2022. While NIMD has ceased funding after IPOD has failed to get all parties to sign a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The lasted MoU lasted until February 2022.

Now in September 2022 the IPOD Secretariat might feel at a loss. The ideal of IPOD might seem positive and worthwhile. Nevertheless, the results and the political forum has been more a sideshow than actually being fruitful. The majority party and ruling regime, National Resistance Movement (NRM) has used it more to poach the opposition and have publicity stunts. While the opposition like Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and National Unity Platform (NUP) haven’t seen any sort of dialogue or proper platform to make difference. That’s why they rather distance themselves from it.

The IPOD was maybe made with the best interest in 2010. NIMD and DGF funded the organization to have a place and possibility to meet. IPOD could have been a safe space for the political parties, but we all know this haven’t been in the interests of the Head of State or the NRM. The NRM wants to either intimidate, strike or corrupt their opposition. That’s why President Museveni has himself promised to destroy and get rid of all opposition.

Now in 2022 and after 12 years of IPOD. The NRM is losing one of the few places where Museveni could actually meet the real opposition. Not the “opposition” who is already leaning towards him or co-operating with him. No, the ones defying him or wanting to remove him isn’t now a part of the IPOD.

That NIMD is saying it won’t fund IPOD before NUP and FDC joins is a failure. The parties themselves has decide. They have seen the works of IPOD and what it has “achieved”. The organization don’t have that much to show for it. This is why they cannot even write an MoU, which they cannot agree upon.

The NRM might feel like this is a “victory”. They can point at NUP and FDC. However, that is a very hallow “victory”. The FDC and NUP has done this for various of reasons, but it is clear that the NRM isn’t an honest actor. That’s why activists, candidates and associates connected to the NUP or FDC are either kept incommunicado, arrested or even extra judicially killed. The authorities are monitoring the opposition more than they look into crooks. Therefore, the political prisoners and prisoners of conscience is a well-known phenomenon in the Republic. That’s all because of their affiliation and who they are associated with.

If the NRM really wanted IPOD to work. They would have properly invested in it and not only used it for photo-ops ahead of polls and elections. While also using it more directly to create positive headlines Nevertheless, NIMD and DGF maybe want more for their coins. They want them to actually have inclusive dialogue and talks in a political forum. That sort of thing seems like a thing of the past.

It is not the fault of NUP or the FDC for the end of IPOD. The killer of IPOD is Museveni. Like everyone else it goes back to him. It is his choices and orders, which are reflected here. He is getting his will and certainly not … get a free lunch. IPOD is only destroyed and losing value, as there are no real progress or talks of substance. When an organization like IPOD becomes sub-standard forum and losing all value.

President Museveni cannot be happy with this, because this just shows how flawed his multi-party democracy is. When the one forum he had where all elected parties could meet and talk is now ceasing to operate. The funding of this organization is stopped. Because, FDC and NUP isn’t accepting the conditions of the current MoU. That’s a failure and lacking the general understanding of what it should be.

If Museveni wanted this… things would have been different. Nevertheless, expect the NRM to deflect it or blame the parties for not signing on. Because, why should they sign on to something… when it gives them nothing and only legitimizing the regime. IPOD only gives political currency to the NRM without giving the other parties anything worthwhile. The others are just getting an opportunity to see Museveni close by and be there in his presence. That’s a futile enterprise and if the NIMD see that is an asset. They should just continue to pursuit it. However, it isn’t the product that its portrayed on the tin. It is something else and the ones dismissing it has all the reasons to do so. Peace.

Opinion: The EALA MPs race is already finished

The ones expecting any sort of shocks or sudden changes in the East African Legislative Assembly Members of Parliament (MP) race will be in a dire loss. The EALA MP race which is already scheduled will most likely be a settled affair already.

It is the MPs that elects them and the majority will go to the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The NRM has already 6 candidates or Flag-Bearers and you should expect all of them to be settled in. The Democratic Party (DP) will get one MP as that was signed off in the DP-NRM agreement, which was signed of earlier in the year. That means 6 of the 9 slots is already taken. Further, the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) should also get a candidate in for their loyalty and working relationship with NRM. That means 8 of the 9 MPs are already elected without much say. The last will be to a NRM leaning Independent and a “vetted” one like that. This is what you should expect and anything else would be weird at this point.

The NRM will have the majority and that is reflected in the NRM Caucus with their 6 Candidates. This is an easy pick and securing plum-jobs to former MPs and Ministers who has lost out. That’s why the EALA is a nice place for them to be put. When there is no parastatal or government entities to get appointed into. Therefore, the EALA is a well fitting place to do so.

The others are giving favourable and friendly parties of the Parliament a “shout-out” or “props” for their loyalty. They are getting a EALA MP slot and that’s why its easy to see the 6+2 or 8, which is al but missing 1 of the EALA MPs.

That Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is fielding a flag-bearer is futile. The same can be said about whoever the National Unity Platform (NUP) would pick or have in this role. The Justice Forum (JEEMA) has also a flag-bearer, but that person will not go nowhere either. As the JEEMA has been an ally of the People Power and the NUP. So, with that in mind these parties candidates will go nowhere. There is no way that the majority of the Parliament will give them way. They are really wasting their time and only playing into the procedural games of the state. Yes, they have a right to have a flag-bearer or a EALA MP candidate, but it’s totally pointless. The opposition could have the best man or woman. They could have the incarnated saviour of the planet and all souls. That person still wouldn’t have a chance, because the NRM has decided and there is no turning back.

The FDC, NUP and JEEMA has no chance here. They should just give up. The DP and UPC will get the other spots. There is little chances for the independent candidates in this race, if any. Yes there is a talk of 15 MP candidates, but as long as you don’t have suction or pre-arranged agreements. These shouldn’t expect much. They are fillers on a paper or if even that…

The ones believing this will be free and fair elections. I hate to say it’s partly sealed already. The only last seat is what is unknown. While that one will most likely go to a NRM leaning Independent and someone in favour of the NRM without being on it’s ticket. That meaning all of the 9 of 9 EALA MPs.

The ones thinking the FDC, NUP or JEEMA has a shot at this… well, I cannot see it happening. It isn’t like the NRM or the ones in power has allowed that before. No, they rather see their own there and no one else. The only reason why UPC and DP has a chance, is because of their working arrangements with the NRM. That’s why they are getting favour and office. Not because of their representation or the will of the people. No, it’s because of ceremonial reasons between the NRM and their allies. There is nothing else too this. Peace.

Bukimbiri County By-Election: Return Form for Transmission of Results (11.08.2022)

Updates from Gogonyo County and Bukimbiri County By-Elections

Today is the day of the polls in the by-elections that is running simultaneously. Gogonyo County in Pallisa district is sort of over before the polls. As there are no real opposition or candidates against the National Resistance Movement (NRM) Flag-Bearer. This is why the real score is on the Bukimbiri County By-Elections in Kisoro district.

The Gogonyo County has had low voter turnout and it’s really an uninteresting affair. The only bothersome thing is that the Electoral Commission didn’t change the ballots after the withdrawal of candidates. So, the Polling agents has to enlighten the voters about if they vote for any of the candidates who pulled out. Their ballots becomes invalided one and will be counted as a spoilt one. Instead of casting a vote that really matters…

In Bukimbiri County is a whole other ball-game. There is already reports of abductions and arrests of the polling agents of the independent candidate, Asigaro Turyagendya. They are now detained at various of police stations. In addition to that… A team led by the Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja, Minister Sarah Mateke and Moses Kamuntu is traversing the county arresting the polling agents and supporters of Asigaro Turyagendya. So, the acts of Soroti East has come to Kisoro for sure.

It is also reported: “Voters in Bukimbiri County By-election are being given between 2000 and 5000 Ugandan shillings to vote either Asigario Turyagenda (independent) or Eddie Kwizera (NRM). This has led to physical fights” (Voice of Muhabura FM, 11.08.2022).

The amount of voters in Bukimbiri is said to be moderate. While drones and heavy security detail in the district. As reported earlier there are alleged voting bribery in the district. However, it is also stated that there have been ballot stuffing going on in Nyanamo Town Council. The source for this was Julius Nkunda from the Voice of Muhabura FM.

We can assess the circumstances here and the outcome is most likely a resounding victory for the NRM. Not because they have the best candidates or the flag-bearers. No, because they have rigged the elections and ensured safe-landing for their anointed ones. They have invested, intimidated and bribed to make it happen. It is just formalities and awaiting the Return Form for Transmission of Results.

Derrick Orone (Gogonyo County) and Eddie Kwizera (Bukimbiri County) is scheduled to be sworn-in and be the next MPs of the 11^th Parliament. To think otherwise and naive. This is why the population isn’t eager to show up or participate. Because, everyone knows the drill and it’s close to pointless or derivative at this point. When everyone knows what will go down and who will be announced.

The rest is just publicity, smack-daddy posturing and open blindfolding of the population. Hoping they don’t understand the gimmicks and the games. These weren’t elected MPs, but selected ones. The NRM didn’t need to do much, but they did enough to secure the poll position. That’s very obvious. Yet, another few hallow “victories” for the Movement.

It can celebrate, but everyone knows what’s up and the reality will sooner or later hit them. They cannot do this forever and the public will not accept either. They are made fools off and everyone knows. Peace.