MinBane
I write what I like.
Archive for the tag “RPF”
Opinion: Commit to the bid, if your stepping down…
An old map from Reliefweb
I have a hard time to celebrate that certain men plans to step down from their Presidency. I know, I should be, but I don’t want to be fooled. During the last end of the decade and year of 2019. The Presidents of Rwanda and Burundi pledged to step down. Said it on various occasions. However, I am not yet buying it.
That the President of Burundi. The man who was a rebel, who has made himself a supreme ruler and been at the helm since 2005. Plus the President haven’t followed the Arusha Accords, he have amended the Constitution to fit his own agenda and he has already held a questionable term, which was validated by his own appointed Constitutional Court. Awaiting a new term this year, as the up-coming elections of 2020 is coming up.
With all that in mind, I have a hard time believing Pierre Nkurunziza of CNDD-FDD and the violent government of his. Will suddenly stop acting, stop ceasing operations and be in the wind. I don’t believe he will be relaxing at a mansion or palace in Gitega. No, it’s not happening, unless he drops an resignation letter, a letter of intent and some sort of decree, proving that the President will not be there after the 2020 elections.
It is not like Nkurunziza understands or has the ability to listen to scrutiny. The ones who stands in his way stops. The ones who pokes fun on painting crayons on his pictures get arrested. Therefore, his not the sort of guy to get tainted or get kind hearted. So, he will struggle as a civilian, who would be questioned for the abductions, killings and the reason why so many opposition members are in exile.
The second one, who I doubt will step down from the throne is Rwandan President Paul Kagame. His been in power forever. First in Ugandan government, before he together with other Rwandan diaspora militia did a coup d’etat and part-take in genocide of 1994. Since then he was the Vice-President and Minister of Defence between 1994-2000. Since 2000 his been the President and by law he can be so until 2034. Therefore, I have little faith of him stepping down.
Well, someone whose elected with 98% in the election of 2017 would most likely not step down. Not someone who has all power consolidated. A man who has the army and the security operations working as clock-work around his orders. Not believing someone who support militias in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Because, of his vicious affairs, I doubt he will jeopardize his place.
This is the sort of man that has ban political satire, because of frail sense of power. So, its not like Kagame has thick skin and can manage critics. That is why his real opposition is either behind bars or in exile.
These sort of gentlemen … isn’t the sort who listen or accept to be humiliated, laughed at or even spoken ill off. They would not like to have tainted legacy, even though that is true. Because, they want to be giants, big-men and remembered like deities. They want to be modern saints, canonized in the Vatican and be living legends.
However, even if they do step-down from being Heads of State. Their legacy will be the bloodshed, the impunity within their republics and their oppressive behaviour. It will not be fantastic speeches, bended knees and other policies.
So now, if they are stepping down. Prove it, show some real backing behind it. Letter of intent. Resignation letter or even groom a successor. Do something, your words have no value, when you have amended the laws to give you ability to stay longer in power. Peace.
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Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XIX: The 2nd Ad-Hoc Meeting – A double whammy!
Today, was the rescheduled 2nd Ad-Hoc Meeting, which was supposed to happen in October, but since then been postponed. This has all happen since the Luanda Memorandum of Understanding was signed on the 21st August 2019 and the first meeting was in the middle September in Kigali. Today, it was in Uganda, as the parties met together with the other stakeholders too.
Well, the parties couldn’t resolve anything. They couldn’t even drop a joint communique from the 2nd Ad-Hoc Meeting. The MoU isn’t a legally binding document, neither was the first joint communique from September. However, the breakdown today is surely not the signs in the stars that the public needs.
The Rwandan and Ugandan parties are not able to settle grievances, they are not able to negotiate or even talk. Not even for the PR perspective. They were together and had the opportunity to settle things, instead they are back-stepping and mudding the waters more.
The various dignitaries today cannot proud of their work, neither for themselves or for the East African Community in general. This is putting a hold on a needed relations, as they are neighbours and will be connected whether they like it or not. If it is the ego of the head of states. If it is the grudges from the past.
This is not only a border dispute, the way both republic’s a treating their citizens. It is also about the possible shadow-war done in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The spoils of militias inside there, which the parties doesn’t want to put on the table. Neither also take responsibility for. Because, that means knowingly taking responsibility for in the insecurity, they both are promising to help, all of the time.
These two parties needs to settle it and the citizens are paying the price, the traders and border regions are hurt by this. The Uganda-Rwanda tensions needs to be resolved, as there been a long stalemate and need to figure the next few steps. The stakeholders needs to put forward steps and timelines. If not this will drag-on into 2021 or even escalate further by possible violence at a border point. Which has already occurred, but if it happens again. It might be more than just letters of warning between the parties. But actual further actions made, which none of us wants to see. Peace.
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Opinion: The troubling shadow-game within the Great Lakes Region
There is an issue that returns and returns, something that never leaves. The bullets and the victims doesn’t stop. The armies and militias are continuing. They have sponsors and they have fields of tax to continue their looting of either South Kivu Province or the North Kivu Province. This has been going-on, but continues to this day.
Therefore, these days things are getting worse. The realities on the ground is hard figure and the players are acting aloof. Even as they are all playing victims of insurgency, as long as they are sponsoring insurgencies in proxy within the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The Ugandans are known for supporting the M.R.C.D., the former FDLR and RNC combined group whose targeting the counterpart Rwanda. MRCD has promised to fight to overthrow Paul Kagame.
While the Rwandan Patriotic Army or Rwandan Defence Force is now in the DRC to fight the militias together with MONUSCO and FARDC. They are still following genocidaires and others there. Even the groups supported by the powers in Kampala. This being CMI and others who is giving training, ammunition and so-on.
While the Rwandan government isn’t innocent as they are supporting the Red-Tabara who is targeting Burundi and hunts for the head of Pierre Nkurunziza. Therefore, the Burundian is stressed by this.
The Burundi supported militia Mai-Mai has in the end also attacked Rwanda too. That is why all of these are using other militias, which is organized within the provinces of Kivu. While having bases there and being a proxy to attack the ones whose enemies of the head of state, who happens to control the various of Republics.
Taht is why this is worrying, as the intelligence and the means are there. That the Ugandan (Museveni) are having meetings and connections to the militias who works to topple Kagame. While Kagame are supporting another militia to topple Nkurunziza. As well, as Nkurunziza is supporting another militia to topple Kagame. Surely this East African Community (EAC) isn’t that friendly, neither is their intentions.
That they are all using various of groups, name-salads. Supported through the soft-borders of the DRC. To ensure their looting and enriching the supporters. While they are trying to find a way to ensure the end-game is secured. That their enemy and their neighbour is another leader, who they can have as a puppet.
What is worse too is that these groups are extending the harm, the deaths and the massacres in the Kivu’s. They are creating this and the masters across the borders are doing it for greed and for high of power. That they can use proxy warfare to extend their will. This is what they are doing with the various of groups. Just like the Ugandan-Rwandan used to do with the M23 and others in the past. Now, they are targeting each other and using militias for their own benefit. While Burundi has thrown their coins into the mix too, hoping for positive returns.
That should worry the FARDC, MONUSCO and the elite of Kinshasa. As their territory is used as battlefield and also as a training ground for insurgency. That will not create sustainable peace. Since, this will not silence the guns, but instead it will import the guns. That is the mere reality and reason why the silent war of Kivu’s continues. Peace.
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DRC: Conflicting statements on the skirmishes at Kusisa in South Kivu Province
“Major fighting took place yesterday in Kusisa (Kalehe territory, South Kivu) between the Congolese army and the CNRD, a Rwandan rebellion that resulted from a split with the FDLR in 2016” (Kivu Security, 27.11.2019).
There are apparently two different views to what happened in Kusisa, Kalehe territory in South-Kivu province. What it says, there are claims of the violence towards civilians in a refugee camp by government soldiers and Rwandan soldiers camouflaged as so in South Kivu. While the Rwandan government claims the militia caused these attacks. The MRCD have already promised to wage war against Kigali, while they are still based in the DRC.
Clearly, they could play for the facade, but we never know in these instances. The MRCD claims a total different picture from the Rwandese, both using the UN documentation, while the DRC reporter states what the FARDC says it does. Therefore, it is hard to know what’s going on. But something is up and civilians are the casualties in all of this.
MRCD Statement:
“On the night of 25 to 26 November 2019, the FARDC (Armed Forces of the DRC), together with the Rwandan soldiers in Congolese army uniform, attacked and destroyed the Rwandan refugee camp in Kalehe territory in South Kivu. The Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD-Ubumwe) had nevertheless alerted the International Community of the imminence of these attacks given the encirclement of this camp since 13/11/2019 by members of the RDF (Rwandese Defence Forces) disguised as Congolese soldiers. We denounce the silence and passivity of the International Community before such massacres against the survivors of the genocide perpetrated in Congo by the same troops of General Paul KAGAME in 1996-1998, as proved in the UN Mapping Report: These massacres of refugees are committed with the indifference of the UN military force MONUSCO, which has been present in the DRC since 1999. The MRCD-Ubumwe also recalls that MONUSCO has several soldiers not far from this camp of attacked refugees” (MRCD – ‘Rwandan soldiers in Congolese army uniform, attacked and destroyed the Rwandan refugee camp in Kalehe territory’ 26.11.2019).
Rwandan Embassy in Brussels Statement:
“Recently, and to the knowledge of the Belgian authorities, it has been proven that two politico military platforms named P5 and MRCD operate from the Kingdom of Belgium where some of its leaders are staying, including Paul Rusesabagina, who heads the Rwandan Movement for Peace. Democratic Change (MRCD Ubumwe), Faustin Twagiramungu and Placide Kayumba (Vice President of the United Democratic Forces (UDF) and co-founder of Jambo ASBL). This group meets regularly, signs pacts and raises funds for the sole purpose of overthrowing the Rwandan government by force. The details of the activities of the P5 military branch led by the Rwanda National Congress led by Kayumba Nyamwasa and the FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda) were analyzed in a report by the UN expert group. on the Congo from December 2018. As a reminder, the FDLR are the ideological heirs of the perpetrators of the genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda in 1994 and since their presence in eastern Congo are responsible for systematic killings and rapes. In spite of these criminal acts, members of the ASBL under Belgian law called “Jambo ASBL”, actively involved in a misinformation campaign against Rwanda, regularly visited the eastern part of the Congo to meet with them. FDLR leaders” (Rwanda in Belgium – ‘Le Rwanda déplore que la presse belge fasse l’écho d’une campagne visant à le déstabiliser’ 27.11.2019).
Reports from the DRC:
“Information confirmed by the FARDC that announce that on the orders of the high military hierarchy, the operational sector Sukola 2 South Kivu and North Kivu, launched this Tuesday, November 26, an offensive against the armed group CNRD with the objective of neutralizing this group armed foreign active on Congolese soil. “For the only day of this Tuesday, November 26, the FARDC have already recovered the localities of Kitindiro, Rutare1 and 2, Bibatama and Nganjo, formerly under control CNRD. The populations of all these localities are asked to remain calm and to dissociate themselves with all these armed groups “, adds captain Dieudonné Kasereka military spokesman of the operation Sukola 2 South South-kivu” (Justin Mwamba – ‘Sud-Kivu : les FARDC récupèrent plusieurs localités jadis occupées par les CNRD à Kahele’ 27.11.2019, Actulite.cd).
We can clearly see that none of them is denouncing the skirmishes, the battles nor the actually fatalities in South Kivu Province. However, the FARDC says its liberated parts of the territory, while the MRCD claims the army did crimes against humanity and went after civilians in a refugee camp. That is not the story from the FARDC. But who would confess that directly? Secondly, what militia doesn’t want goodwill and try to portray their enemies in the worst light? Thirdly, what government doesn’t want to defend themselves, against the ones who want to overthrow it?
That is all reasonable, but, a very important but, someone is lying here. Someone is not coming with a straight face. There is a lie here and I cannot catch it. As there are two much between the lines and that I have no knowledge of. What we do know, is that Rwandan soldiers has been and easily could be in the Kivu provinces. The MRCD and allies are working to get rid of Kagame, that is a mere fact. FARDC has a bad rep together with MONUSCO to not shield citizens. Therefore, there is a lot at stake and also open questions. Neither do I trust the FARDC, the MRCD nor the Rwandan in this matter. Because, they could all be lying. However, there must be truth there somewhere, but I cannot see that either.
That’s because they are all lying and in war, the first thing that is the innocent and the innocence of people. They are all using all means to win. It doesn’t matter which side of the gun you are, as long as your not on the losing side. Because, that means either punishment or death. That’s why all of these will tell stories, will amplify or even spread propaganda for their own narrative. I just don’t know who to believe. That’s my issue. What’s the real issue is that by all accounts, civilians and refugees was in the midsts of cross-fire and certainly someone died because of warlords was busy tormenting the region. Peace.
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Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XVII: Kagame warning and now postpone the 2nd Ad-Hoc Meeting!
“You cannot be here benefitting from the peace and security that we have created, that we have paid for in blood over many years and then you do things behind our backs and cause us problems. We will put you where you belong, there is no question about it” – President Paul Kagame (14.11.2019).
Today is yet another snag in the relations and the growing tensions between the Republic of Rwandan and the Republic of Uganda. Where the two big-men’s pride continue to stride and cost for the public. This is after yet more questionable deaths at the border point between Rwanda and Uganda this weekend.
In September 2019, the parties had agreed to hold a second Ad-Hoc Meeting, but by mid-October there was nothing in sight. The Rwandan diplomats and such was crying foul, but nothing happened about it. They were awaiting an invitation for a meeting, but now that it has come. The Rwandan parts has cancelled the Second Ad-Hoc Meeting in mid-November 2019.
This is all happening after the Luanda Memorandum of Understanding signed by the parties on the 21st August 2019. Therefore, the whole time after this there been no change between the parties. As the border points are closed. The lack of trade and the closure of movement, which has happen because of allegations and finding of illegal arrests of Rwandan citizens inside Uganda. And the support of militias to undermine Kigali. Clearly, the parties have a lot of things to work with combined with the measures made by Rwanda, with closure of border, suspend trade and also violent attacks across the border points towards Ugandan citizens. This is all creating a uneasy field and tensions between the Republics.
This has now happen during most of this calendar year, since the start in about March 2019. That is why this is an continuation of the policies and the acts of both governments. The lack of trust and the playing games. Doesn’t make this better and shows the value of an MoU. Which is at this point worthless, as the Ad-Hoc Commission is doing nothing to settle the score nor making the parties work together. That is why since September 2019, there been no progress or proof of finding any middle ground. To stop either insurgencies, to support militias, to stop the policies of trade and everything else. The supposed aliens and spies from Kigali in Kampala too. All of this is creating an uneasy atmosphere.
What we are learning with time is that the egos of Museveni and Kagame is strong. As none of them is backing down and is warning each other. The Republics and the egos are now spiralling this out. They are not only testing the grounds, but there are already victims there. That has been on both sides of border and this will continue. As long as they are doing this to each other.
Today’s revelation of the cancellation of the second Ad-Hoc Meeting isn’t only a worry, but shows that Rwandans are answering the warning note after the fatalities during the weekend. This is happening after mid last month, they were awaiting an invitation to another meeting. Therefore, the last Kigali meeting of September is the last word for now.
Both Kagame and Museveni needs to talk, sit down properly, kiss and make-up. They got to not only make a worthless document and a process, which creates nothing. That is futile and a waste of time. They need to negotiate and actually iron these things out. Since, this cost innocent civilians, this costs trade and also suspects illegal activity by both parties. Which is again infusing more uncertainty between the neighbours, which should be more friendly between brothers. Now, they are making small battles and small tiny victories, but nobody is really winning. As they are just postponing either diplomacy or filling the chambers with guns.
We rather hope for peace, not war. But these two are warlords who rules the Republics. They are known for militias, warfare and using armed personnel to get their way. Back-in-the-day, they worked together, but now the pride is going to their head. They want to be on top and be the big-man of the region. Neither want to look small compared to the other. That is how it seems. Instead of settling the difference and just talk. Peace.
