Today, the Government of Tanzania have together with the Government of Uganda signed off to a Host Government Agreement (HGA), also together with Total, the supposed builder of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).
Today, all the years of waiting, stalling and finding measures of taxes pays-off. We can still wonder what is basic fee structure and what is the price of taxation of the extraction of oil exploitation in the Lake Albertine basin. In the same regard, we can wonder is the specific route for the pipeline and what consequences it will have to nature, reserves and national parks. Because, the drill itself is just in the near proximity of Murchinson Fall National Park. Before it will continue or pass through other untouched areas of both Uganda and Tanzania.
There is still not answers or openness about the deals in the regards to the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) and the Tanzania National Oil Company (TNOC), in combination to the ownership and licences of China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and Total. Therefore, there are plenty of stakeholders and everyone wants to profit on the resources.
With both Republics signing of the HGA agreement and preparing for the Final Investment Decision (FID). The building of the pipeline and the industry can start off. This has also been stopped by taxation and the questionable acquisitions of exploitation licences in Lake Albert. Therefore, the whole Heritage and Tullow taxation case and the costs it had for Total to pay off that. Is still not shown to the public or if the Government of Uganda has forgiven the past company to give way. While Tullow surely wanted profits for their time and the valuable licences they had gotten rights too in earlier rounds.
What is also worrying to me? Well, the deals are not public. The agreements between the Corporations and the Republics are practically unknown and only mere fragments is out. Just like the power-sharing of 60% to Tanzania and 40% to Uganda. Is still not saying much, considering this will be still carved up by Total and CNOOC too, also some sort of deal with UNOC and TNOC. These will not operate on charity, but as a benefactor of the Republic itself.
The public should know this, because it is public resources, state resources and oil exploitation on public land. The companies are using licences and also the same licenses to transport the crude oil in the pipeline from Lake Albert to Port Tanga. Therefore, it is needed to get this knowledge to show the price, the agreements and the possible perks. Because, we don’t if they even have strings or not.
We should wonder why its confidential and kept a secret. The companies should also be displeased, unless they like to exploit without any transparency. Because, these deals and arrangements haven’t been made transparent or with accountability. It has been done in the chambers of Entebbe and in Tanzania. The general public will only see a fraction and not know the full extent.
That is a deliberate action by Presidents and their handlers. The UNOC, TNOC, Total and CNOOC can operate without to much scrutiny and just enjoy the cheers. There is a need to know, but don’t expect it. Since, the GoU and GoT haven’t delivered this in past, neither has the GoU showed anything from the previous deals with Heritage/Tullow. Why should they suddenly change of heart?
I don’t think so… unless there is a sudden miracle. If not … if there is a shady deal and one company feels used and will take it to an international court. Then, we will see some evidence of what went down. However, until then… we only know the bits and pieces. Peace.
Last year in September 2019, the Farm Down Agreement of Tullow Oil was supposed to be traded to Total E&P Uganda. This was a long and prolonged negotiations, as the British Tullow Oil has been in dispute of taxation and payments of fees the Government of Uganda, which was deemed as the “Presidential Handshake”.
What happen yesterday with the Financial Investment Decisions (FID) of Total, as it has taken over the stakes of Tullow Oil. While agreeing on added terms in combination with the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to drill after petroleum in various of blocks on Lake Albert, also build the petroleum pipeline from Hoima to Port Tanga, Tanzania.
The Port Tanga and Pipeline agreement was sealed in 2017 between the Government of Uganda (GoU) and Government of Tanzania (GoT). That after lots of meetings and consultations between the parties. There was some who even tried to get it Port Lamu in Kenya, but that was ditched. Also, causing a rift between Dodoma and Nairobi.
Now, the next step is that Total and CNOOC is able to get a Host Government Agreement (HGA) for the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project. That was agreed by the parties in Entebbe for the territory of Uganda, but it is not sealed with Tanzania.
Though it should be in the interest to sign an agreement with President Magufuli and the CCM. Now, that they have fixed the first part and the licences to drill on Lake Albert. Total and CNOOC needs the HGA in Tanzania too. That will be beneficial for the Republic there too.
This has been a long time… the first reports of agreements and production licenses to blocks on Lake Albert in early 2000s. This was agreements being made between the government and the Tullow/Heritage and ENI as well. Which later has caused rift between the companies and the Republic, as the Oil Companies wasn’t willing to pay taxes and the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) needed to win a Court Case in 2014 to get taxes owned paid by Tullow, as they had to cover the loss of taxes from their acquisition of Heritage Oil.
So, the news today is big. Maybe, the President got another Presidential Handshake, as the Tullow Oil Taxes case brought a lot of kickbacks. The deals sealed between Museveni and Total is a secret. Therefore, only the agreement of what it does is in public, but not the costs, the tax-grade and the limitations of it. Total and CNOOC can have gotten it for cheap for all we know.
That is something for the time to tell. Now, the Lake Albert Basin, the Lake Albert Blocks for drilling is sealed, which has been in question and awaited a verdict for years. The same has the years of a agreement for a company to build the pipeline and pay the rates for having the operation going.
Now, there is one final agreement that needs to be sealed in Tanzania. By all means, the Republic’s needs also to settle the routes, the land-acquisitions and other arrangements too. While the other HGA is necessary to get started. As the process is now moving. The initial agreements are made, but the companies still needs goodwill elsewhere to make this pop-off. This will be years in the making. As the state of Uganda is scheduling a Oil Refinery in 2023, but that depends on everything else goes as planned at this point.
And in this business, at this point, everything that can be stalled and discontinued can happen. Even, if one of the companies stops seeing the financial viability and lack of profits. Than, they might suspend and try to sell the Producing Licenses Agreement to someone else again.
I wouldn’t be shocked, if Total bails out or something. There been so many companies involved and we are still not starting production. This being in the works since the early 2000s with the modern day deals and new arrangement for petroleum activity in the Lake Albert basin. That is why I am reluctant. Because, at any given moment, someone gives way and it sto
If there was one National Resistance Movement (NRM) Candidate for Member of Parliament (MP) that I would thought would cease to exist, it would be current day Vice President Edward Ssekandi. Who was running for another term in Bukoto Central County in Greater Masaka.
So, to know that he again get a chance to run in a General Election in 2021. A man who has been an MP since 1996. His been the VP since 2011 and this would continue as long as he got ambition to succeed the President. By all his actions and his way of being in the wind. The VP is secured and can eat like crazy.
VP Ssekandi is a ghost and irrelevant. Still, he was able to get recognition in his constituency. This is why its weird that nobody else would win over him. Someone who would go door-to-door over the years. Steady campaign and be recognized.
Everyone knows that VP Ssekandi exists. No one can state what he has done or delivered. Ssekandi is just a mirage, someone behind the scenes who happens to appear every blue moon.
That’s why its weird that he even get voters behind him. VP Ssekandi might be able to shake a few hands and say a few words at a burial. Nevertheless, his not a great lawmaker, neither is he a representative for change.
VP Ssekandi is the one who doesn’t make a fuzz, doesn’t make a difference and doesn’t even utter a public word. Unless, it is a tribute and a speech for the deceased. The Bukoto Central has initially given way to another public speaker to officiate events. Yes, his not won it yet, but don’t expect shock in the up-coming elections in 2021.
This man will win there too. If his on it, because he knows his the VP for the President for Life. The one who has no ambition and only serves his master. The VP for the bad days and for the glorious occasions. However, he will never be there to say anything to rock the boat. Neither, will he cause any controversy or even issue a statement on a scandal.
This man is the true testament to live ghosts. The silent whisperer and the one haunts the VP position.
Ssekandi is like an eidolon or a poltergeist, even if he is a real person. Because, he is usually not seen or in public. Even if he is a high ranking government official and a MP.
It is hard to think he is a mortal, but immortal instead. A supernatural person, who gets re-elected and continues to be spirit flying over the Republic. For some reason, the state, the party sees him as useful.
That’s why he “wins” elections. Because, it cannot be for his charismatic persona or his track-record. Because, anyone who has made a motion, petition or even an article in New Vision has done more than this man. Peace.
“f you are not working for the enemy, you cannot go on the social-media and demand that we publish the names of the personnel of UPDF, their ranks and their jobs. The only thing we can say and what you know is that recruitment into the Police and UPDF is by quota. Beyond that, leave our Army alone and I mean, leave our Army alone” – Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (03.09.2020).
In the response the President wrote today. He addressed a lot of matters. That is why I am making a second post on it. This time about the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) or the Army. We are seeing how the President is defending it. As there been inquiries and questions about how the army is a “western” Ugandan enterprise filled with high ranking officials from there. This is something Museveni doesn’t want to properly address.
I’m not shocked he is dismissing it. That his calling people enemies for doing so. Because, if the UPDF isn’t filled with loyal cadres. He would be frightened, as his popularity in the public is frail over the years. The President needs the army and armed forces, because the public isn’t behind him anymore. That is why the President doesn’t accept accountability or transparency in concern with the UPDF.
“Coming to the Armed Forces, especially the Army, my advice to all of you, is that leave your Army out of that nonsense. The NRA, the UPDF are Armies of sacrifice, all the time for no pay or low pay. They (we) put their lives on the line. Therefore, leave UPDF out of the circus of sectarianism. Fighters, real fighters, never have interests in tribes or religious sectarianism; but in comrade-in-arms” – Museveni (03.09.2020).
Because, we know the UPDF have a history of selective recruitment and promotions. If the President wanted to be against sectarianism and be open to all tribes of the Republic. There wouldn’t be an issue, if it wasn’t something there.
This has been known for a long while… the UPDF and the army is filled high ranking officials from Western Uganda. That is not just mere speculation, but facts at this point. If it wasn’t so, the President would say so. However, he doesn’t want people to question the reasons for it.
He wants the people to accept it and leave it alone. It is wrong to look into the armed forces and its structure. That shows that the President fears scrutiny and transparency about this. He wants to stop questions and silence it.
The president knows his only way to keep power is having the loyalty and the control of the army. If he looses that at this point…. he will loose power and it will end his reign. The President needs the soldiers, generals and armed forces all behind him. He needs to have their backs and not loose them.
That is why the President doesn’t want anyone to look into the army and what it does. The UPDF is therefore untouchable… at least in the eyes of the President. However, that is not good. As the UPDF should defend the territory and its citizens. Not be a weapon of intimidation or tactics to scare the public. It is there to defend them.
If the President is that defensive and scared of looking into the army. You know his in trouble and worried about the truth. He should be open, transparent and accountable about it. Alas, his not, because he knows… as we know that its not run like it should. Peace.
“Corruption is first and foremost ideological. This is because the corrupt don’t know how to be prosperous sustainably. They don’t look for prosperity sustainably. They want to be rich at the expense of society. They are parasites” – Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (05.08.2020)
When the State House and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni launches “Expose Corruption Campaign” the man is initially exposing himself. All tides and waters goes to the shores of the State House. The deals, kickbacks and envelopes have an origin of the “high above”. There is no major corruption scandal without some touches from the head of state.
Ministers can run big schemes, Gen. Salim Selah can do whatever, businessmen can launch their businesses as long as there some sort of arrangement. That is what is happening. Everyone knows it, but the President can act like its not a big deal.
While the biggest corruption scandals has gone down without any proper litigation and arrests. This being Ministers who has made fake tenders and waste public funds. That has made roads expensive, medicine vanish and made procurement of cars into national corruption scandals. While, the Prime Ministers, Ministers and associates are all involved in it.
That is why this “expose corruption” is a farce. The President is doing this as a publicity stunt ahead of the polls and the campaign season. However, he has started numerous of organizations and entities to beat corruption. Nevertheless, there is always some shillings who disappear and goes missing.
Just think about this, he calls himself a insect and a bloodsucker too. A leach and a parasite … that is not a way you should describe fellow human beings. However, Museveni have done this plenty of times. Because, he cannot help himself.
President Museveni have used all tricks of the trade. Made dozens of laws, government institutions, but they are all pointless as they are never aiming at the big-fish. The biggest fish being himself. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) will never target itself, but blame others for it.
That is just his common tactic. He has used this trick before and this campaign will not change anything. It is a publicity stunt… and will not change a thing. Peace.
These things appear to be happening quick. Todays launch of his candidacy as President and Chairman of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). It is just all protocol and more of the same. It is neither funny nor insightful. Just another day in the Republic.
That Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is a Presidential Candidate was written in stone. It was in the hieroglyphics and in the ancient scrolls long before we were born. This is a way of life and how it treats us.
The removal of both term limits and age limits has all been in favour of one man. The man who proudly put these mechanisms in the new Constitution but deleted it when it didn’t fit him anymore. He didn’t change the law for the betterment of the Republic, but for his own selfish gain.
We can act like today is special, that the announcement is shocking. Breaking news. Read all about it. Well, we knew this was happening. Only the blindfolded, the ones with naïve thought someone else would pass the throne. That would be a miracle and a sensation. This would have sparked amusing tones and wonders. Because, it would not concur with the legends of ancient times.
This has been the case since the takeover of Kampala, 26th January 1986. Since then it has been all Museveni. He has ruled supreme. Been the Don and the Kingpin. The man in-charge and the only man with a vision. The one who is only fit to rule, and the rest must beg for mercy. That is what it is.
That’s why today isn’t special. His been selling the same story since that day. The day of fundamental change, the correct line and all of that. It has been his mustard seed of hope, which has turned into despair. We can act like everything is cool, but the man who will drop a manifesto for his 8th Term. Will most likely promise similar things of the past. The same sort of promises and possibly new lingo, but still the same tools from the shed.
It is a revised 10-point programme. The same sort of pledges and promises of a dream never succeeded. Because, he never intended to put the work in or deliver any of those. Just by mere luck that donors paid the duties and costs for a while. To keep the charade going.
Now, we are in 2020. In a time where his preparing for 2021. Alas his legacy is distorted, as people are arrested for poems, Facebook posts and jokes. There is no bottom, only an endless pit of suffering for the ones who oppose this man. Sooner or later the law catches up with you and give you a phony charge. A charge that you will keep and will haunt you.
So, will you believe in the man that has given out promises all his career and all his life? Only to determine or not even prioritize them. A man who has decided his own reign counters all other obligations of the state. Everyone must be jolly that he rules, and that his words are divine.
Today, was all ready prepared. Everything was aligned with it, the stars, the moons and the nsenene. Everyone was ready for this. It was inevitable. This wasn’t a journey; it was a road already taken. We have been here before and we just repeating the same thing over, and over again. Peace.
Well, the scholars will say its his 6th Term, which I defiantly says “no” too. That is not true. They are currently saying his on his fifth term. That he was elected in 2016 for his 5th. However, if you do that, then your taking away his first 10 years in power. You are initially deleting the years between 1986 to 1996 and that is not fair. That is unjustified behaviour and rewriting history. The Republic of Uganda doesn’t deserve that.
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is currently in his Seventh Term. You can calculate the 5 times and see that I am onto something. That the man who has run the Republic are in his 34 years in power and by 2021 is at his 35th. By the end of the next term he will be close to 40 years. Which by dividing 40 by 5 turns into 8. It is every simple Math.
I know, I will read in the big-media houses like BBC, AP News and others where it will say that his going for his 6th Term. These fellas who write that doesn’t care that he went a decade in power without any elections. That he suspended it and didn’t want to hold any. No, they are just making click-bait and not holding the President accountable. He should be counted for the first years of his presidency. Even if his achievements from those years are long forgotten and his killing of enemies those years. Are also long time buried and dead.
Never the less. Let me just reissue this short time. So, that everyone understands my equation and how I get to 8th Term for Museveni. This here should be the gist, but I am sad to say. The international media will say its 6th because they don’t know better.
1986-1991 First Term by seizing power/coup d’etat,
1991-1996 Second Term by suspending elections.
1996-2001 Third Term by First Election after the coup d’etat.
2001-2006 Fourth Term, Second Election. Abolishing Presidential Term Limits.
2006-2011 Fifth Term, Third Election – First Multi-Party Elections since the Coup d’etat.
2011-2016 Sixth Term – Fourth Election.
2016-2021 Seventh Term – Fifth Election -Abolishing Presidential Age Limits.
2021-2026 Eight Term –Sixth Election
This is just my gist of it and how easily it can be calculated. Something, I find important, because all years should count. Not only the timeline from the election in 1996 until now. Than the same media houses should say he has ruled for 24 years, instead of 34. Why?
They are not counting it in the sense of terms, when they are accepting not to count the 10 years of suspended elections and coup d’etat. If your straight about, be straight forward and not glean in the middle.
Take the whole account, the whole time served and not just from the first election. That is just fair. This President has rigged elections and will rig the upcoming one in 2021 too. It is just a matter of levels and to what extent. Also, what sort of play he wants to do. He decides. His legacy is already tarnished and this election will not make it better.
His the soon, eight term president. Remember that. It is insane, but still true. Peace.
“I met our NRM Members of Parliament who have previously opposed certain party positions, hence being named “rebel MPs”. They called on me at State House Entebbe to seek the party’s forgiveness. Subsequently, I made their case before the party’s Central Executive Committee yesterday which resolved that for the party’s cohesion and discipline, we interact further and guide these MPs” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 17.07.2020).
Today, at the State House, there was a meeting of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) Members of Parliament (MP) who have dared to challenge the President and his legislation. These are the ones who voted against the abolishment of the Age Limit and so fourth. These MPs actually dared to question the President and not following the correct line.
The MPs in question was today summoned to the State House to be informed on how to move forward. In an exercise to show loyalty and also settle supposed grievances. The President simmer it down really quick when he writes that they will guided further and follow Party discipline. That is why these fellows should not dare to undermine the President again. They should just vote as they are told and not think.
That is why rebellion in the NRM is so endearing. Such a assumption that these are rebels. They stood up for one cause and now they have to kiss the ring to get the goods again. As long as they show loyalty and blind discipline to the party, which means loyal to the President. Not question his actions, his legislation or his policies. Only follow the President and his steering committee the NRM CEC.
The President can act like this was a day filled with hardliners, questionable MPs who didn’t know better and needed more education. That these MPs are indecent and disingenuous. However, these are already yellow fellows. The only thing they have done is to vote against a President for Life. A person they had no trouble bowing their knees for and asking for forgive. They were asking for mercy. To ensure they could get another term in office and get the positive vibes ahead of elections.
This is all political games. The NRM Rebels wasn’t true revolutionaries. These people wasn’t defiant in the sense of person, just one simple cause. They stood up and said “nay”, when others said “yay”. Yes, they did the good thing at that vote, but they didn’t work to directly undermine the ruler or his associates. They were all along part of the party, following procedures and being their MPs.
They were maybe not invited to the State House for NRM Caucus Meeting, losing out of some envelopes. However, they are neither true opposition or someone who defiantly standing against the President. If they were and not willingly to work with the Self-Styled President for Life. They wouldn’t show up and bend over for the old man.
He also said:
“Our people are waking up. It explains why we have bumper production of milk, sugar, bananas, etc. Leaders must work for the prosperity of their people. That’s the most important thing” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 17.07.2020).
It is really special that he says leaders have to work for prosperity. When he has prospered, while his citizens haven’t done so. That they have to do that now that its really rich in way. Promise wealth, but not delivering it. That is the final message for the rebels. The ones who stood against him on one cause. A cause that was for selfish reasons for one old man with a hat. The one man with a hat, who they shall not rebel against again. That’s why his showing them mercy now. As long as they are following his orders. Peace.
“Deficit financing, however, may also result from government inefficiency, reflecting widespread tax evasion or wasteful spending rather than the operation of a planned countercyclical policy. Where capital markets are undeveloped, deficit financing may place the government in debt to foreign creditors. In addition, in many less-developed countries, budget surpluses may be desirable in themselves as a way of encouraging private saving” (Encyclopaedia Britannica – ‘Deficit financing’ (25.08.2015).
What is striking from the 2020/21 budget is that its not only 45 trillion shillings, but the way they are financing this spending. Because, the budget need financing or revenue to pay the expenditure. You cannot use air to pay the bondsman. The people you owe money or supposed to spend on needs real cash-flow and liquidity to be fiscal responsible.
What we learned again is the debt deficit financing, which has been common staple in the Republic. Since domestic revenue or tax revenue is about 20 trillions shillings. This means that the rest of the budget has to paid for in various of other ways. In this regard, the state are borrowing, refinancing and gaining more debt. As the state is also wasting more of the budget on paying interests.
This is really making a evil circle and continuing debt trap. Even if the trillions upon trillions owned by the state is growing. That this still haven’t hit a debt ceiling. However, the issue here is the amount of paying interests. They are wasting away money on paying for old loans. This is what the state is initially offering. While it is gaining new debt to finance the over-expenditure today.
When the state pays 4 trillion shillings (9% of the budget) in interests. That shows how destructive this is for the budget. How important it has become. When 1 in 10 shillings of the budgets are paid in interest. This money could have been spent in all parts of society. It could have changed people’s lives and invested in the future. Instead its paying on the debt trap created by the same state.
Deficit financing and refinancing will only ensure the future generations are paying for the growing debt created by the current government. They are borrowing on the future growth and supposed revenue. Even as the state is ballooning the budgets, that they are not able to cover more than half. That is worrying and should worry the republic too.
Yes, that budgets get ballooned in election years are common. That the budgets are insincere and write of taxes in these years are typical too. All of this isn’t new. It is what happens when the Republic is preparing for elections in the coming year. Therefore, the state needs a treasure chest to bling out on chiefs, voter tourism and whatever else to look good for everyone.
That is why this budget is like this. We can clearly see that the state are continuing to acquire more debt, which means the interest payments will grow every year. This is why the refinancing and growing debt should worry everyone. Because, just like the interests payments are now at 9% or 4 trillion shillings this year. We can wonder how it will look when the grace-periods of several of loans are over and the initial price of these as well.
The Republic of Uganda deserves better, but the leaders and the ones in-charge are making it like this. They are not concerned about the future and that is very clear. As they are spending and squandering away the future today. Then someone have to pick up the tab in the future. Peace.