Opinion: Museveni and the NRM is in a ill-advised debt-cycle

The National Resistance Movement and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni have created a negative spiral of debt. The state have taken out more and more debt over the years. The CSBAG, Uganda Debt Network and other organizations have spoken out about this. As the state have the need to pay more in interests and it takes away more from the general budget.

Now the state is saying it has 65 Trillion Shillings in unsustainable debt. That is happening after the Parliament have had sessions over the last few years. Where the only thing they do is to vote over debt and approve more loans to the state for various of development projects, roads and you can wonder if it does anything.

The state is now owning a lot of money. More money than it usually uses in a state budget. The state budgets of late have had half of the revenue coming from domestic taxes and the other either grants or loans. There is also additional supplementary budgets, which is coming in cycles during the budget year. Which is adding more debt… and creating more debt.

There been worry about the rise of debt, but the NRM and the President has said it has been done within reason. However, that is now the chickens coming home to roost. There is enough problems ahead and the state has created this financial conundrum. It has been done deliberately over time.

The Parliament is on the regular issuing now loans… and taking new loans. While hoping one day they have the revenue to actually do these things. The state is spending money and funds it doesn’t have. That is an unforgiving task… and the NRM cannot run away from this.

The NRM have created problem. The appointments of the President is doing this. The Bank of Uganda (BoU) and Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) should have seen this coming. They have been looking over the expenditures and the interests rates. They know when the grace periods of the loans are over. These folks are the ones who has the oversight and supposed sound judgement to advice the Parliament to accept all these loans. However, that is clearly not the case.

The state is crippling its budgets, overspending and over-loaning funds over time. Now, the creditors and debtors wants their pieces of coins back. They cannot bail on it or default on it. Then the state will not be trustworthy and be credible as a economic broker. The state is clearly struggling and lacking funds. That’s because they are having trouble to raise domestic revenue and have to high costs.

This is a self-inflicted ill-advised debt-cycle. A government not listening to CSBAG, Uganda Debt Network and others. The NRM and Museveni should have done that. It will be harder for them to get solidarity this time around. As the Museveni era of now is destructive. The state actions against its own citizens and totalitarian acts. Is not the ones who makes outsiders forgiving like it did in the early 1990s when Museveni was part of a new group of leaders that the West had hopes in. However, that boat has sailed and the truth has come out. That is why Museveni is still there and depleting the state like there is no tomorrow. This is why the debt is rising and its run without any balance of the budgets. That is why the debt is rising and there is no way out.

They want debt forgiveness. However, getting that now will be a feat, but not sustainable either. As this state will just take out new loans and not re-coup or try to absorb the lack of revenue, which is causing the problem in the first place. That is why the state doesn’t have any liquidity or equity to trade for the lack of revenue. It is just a sinking boat and the captain seems clueless…

Deficit financing can only take that far and now its at the end of that journey. Peace.

Ugandan and DRC CSOs’ Communique Rejecting Secret Agreements Signed for the Lake Albert Oil Project in Uganda (13.04.2021)

Joint Communique between the President of the Republic of Uganda and the President of the United Republic of Tanzania on the Implementation of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) Project on the 11th April, 2021 at the State House Entebbe, Uganda (11.04.2021)

Opinion: Kadaga says what everyone knew [A Ugandan VP is useless]

“The Vice Presidency Seat is not a position of decision making, that is why they want me to be appointed there”Rebecca Kadaga (Crispus Mugisha – ‘Kadaga refuses VP job as Museveni calls for meeting’ 29.03.2021, Nilepost.ug).

The truth usually sets you free. The truth can unleash huge potential and change things. Now the speaker of 10 years in the Ugandan Parliament, Rebecca Kadaga has told the truth to the public. Not that it’s shocking or anything. No, we knew this, but its nice that the ones holding office feels the same.

The Speaker of 10 years, Kadaga is saying the Vice President is not worth anything. Rebecca is stating that its not a place worthy of being. Since she wants to be at a place where she has some sort of influence and power. A Vice President at this time and age lacks both.

Yes, a VP is the second of government, but we all know that this person at this point is the master of ceremonies and nothing else. The VP can look good on paper and be honourable subject. Even if the VP has no direct influence of parliament, cabinet or even in the NRM CEC. The person is just a token leader and a figurehead of the government without any sort mandate or ability sway lawmakers.

No, the VP in her eyes is a useless and redundant appointment. Where you are just a high ranking official, but with no initial power. That is sort of the dream and been the motivation for appointing Vice President Edward Ssekandi, which has held the office for two term and lost the MP’s election this time around.

VP Ssekandi will not be remembered for legislative victories nor his strides in office. No, he has been ghosting with a fancy convoy. He has been busy tearing up venues and showing his face. To prove that the office exists, but for no apparent reason. The VP has been selected as well, because he has no ambition to overcome or become the heir to the throne. No, his just there to officiate at weddings, burials and openings of roads.

That is all happening, because that is the role assigned by the President. The President could give the person of the VP a more powerful role and have bigger tasks. However, that is not what he has done. The President have given more prestige and more assignments to the Office of the Prime Minister. The OPM have a bigger function in todays cabinet and have more of powerful portfolio in comparison to the VP. That is why Kadaga doesn’t want to become the next VP. As she knows that role is worthless. She has seen it for years and doesn’t want to be in docket with no influence and mandate to her name. Especially, after having the mantle of the Parliament as the speaker for so long.

This is all a reflection of the manner of which Museveni is ruling. If he had faith in his deputies and in his second in command. He would have assigned them with a broader mandate and given them hurdles to pass. However, he rather takes it on himself or if not give it further down the chain-of-command. As they have a longer line to pass to get to him.

Kadaga is just stating the bitter truth and a simple reflection of the reign of Museveni. Museveni have made it like this. It is his decision to make it a Ministry/Office without a Portfolio or a Ministry aka Vice Presidency.

That is the making of Museveni and is in his image. If you know, now you know. Peace.

Uganda: Deficit financing is creating an evil circle financially [72% of revenue spent on debt repayment!]

By implication, if sh15.7 trillion for debt service-related expenditures is subtracted from the sh21.9 trillion the Government will have generated in revenue collection, it means that 72% of the country’s revenue collection would be spent on debt repayment. The committee raised concern that the high rate at which government is borrowing is not commensurate with the low level of increasing government revenue collection and, therefore, violates the country’s charter of fiscal responsibility. The report indicates that as of June 2020, Uganda’s public debt had reached $15.27b, which is equivalent to sh56.9 trillion. Out of this sh38.9 trillion is external debt and sh17.9 trillion domestic debt” (Moses Mulondo – ‘Govt earmarks sh15.7 trillion for debt repayment ‘ 03.02.2021, New Vision)

The news on how the state got to repay old loans is coming out. As the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) have put forward the budget for the Financial Year of 2021/22. This is initially telling stories on the revenue or tax base, which will be preoccupied or used for paying debt repayment.

Just to put things in perspective. This is the definition of ‘Deficit Financing’:

Deficit financing, however, may also result from government inefficiency, reflecting widespread tax evasion or wasteful spending rather than the operation of a planned countercyclical policy. Where capital markets are undeveloped, deficit financing may place the government in debt to foreign creditors. In addition, in many less-developed countries, budget surpluses may be desirable in themselves as a way of encouraging private saving” (Encyclopaedia Britannica – ‘Deficit financing’ (25.08.2015).

This here is telling the story, which the state media and others isn’t telling. Because, they are borrowing funds to cover up for the deficit. The deficit is created as a result of the rising cronyism and misuse of funds. These funds have to cover the bloated government and its staff. That is why deficit is created to fix the shortfall between the needed revenue and the expenditures of the state. They are using loans to cover and fix the lacking revenue of the state. If the state had enough funds through its tax-base, the state wouldn’t need these loans in the fist place.

However, the state have prolonged with this game over years. The state has used loans to cover its baseline and usage of funds. They have went out for foreign creditors to get enough funding. That shows that the state haven’t been fiscal responsible. They have misused the authority of the state and taken up loans, which now accumulate to over 70% of yearly revenue. While this is happening. The state and the Parliament is still issuing new loans and creating a bigger debt burden. That is what they are doing… and that cycle must stop.

Soon, all revenue will go directly to debt repayment. We know the state wants to have debt relief, but this is self-created by the regime, as they are borrowing for basic commodities and necessities. They are always loaning funds to build development projects and infrastructure, which will be costly. As funds are lost and misused in the building of these. That is why the price of road is so expensive and also projects in general. Therefore, the state is crewed over more than it can swallow.

That is why the state is deficit financing and its become a burden, which it cannot carry. The debt is not sustainable. When 72% revenue is spent on debt repayments. That shouldn’t be a thing, but that is fiscal policy of this regime and apologist cannot hide the fact. They have run down the state and taken up loans they cannot carry. Peace.

Obusinga Bwa Rwenzururu: Press Statement about the Burning of hte Omusinga’s Royal Residence in Kasese Town 28th January 2021 (28.01.2021)

Opinion: Museveni have become 2021 edition of Mobutu

Nothing is not my business in this country: everything is my business, everything. The state of education, the state of our economy, the state of our agriculture, the state of our transport, everything is my business” – President Hastings Kamuzu Banda (1972)

In 2021 we can wonder if General Yoweri Kaguta Museveni wants to distort his whole legacy. He has already destroyed much of it and with more time in office. Now with a new term starting soon. The Self-Styled President for Life is soon ending up like Zaire’s Mobutu Sese Seko. Why do I say that? Mobutu was a man Museveni despised. However, it is so unique that he ends up replicating him.

Mobutu ruled Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo) from 1965 to 1997. He ruled the Republic for 32 years after being installed by the CIA and Belgium after the assassination of Patrice Lumumba. Since then he had all power and the state was the personification of him.

What is making him more similar to Yoweri is that they we’re both getting old. In 1997 Mobutu was 67 years old and had cancer. His cabinet was decaying. The army was hated by the general public. An army that killed and preyed on the citizens for their cuts. Mobutu owned several of businesses and the treasury was his personal bank. There was reports that he had an wealth of USD $4 billion.

Another trick Mobutu had to prolong his time in office. Was the usage of Kleptocracy. Where the President held meeting with rivals, chiefs and opponents. Later he would appoint these persons into his cabinet or create positions for them. They became Ministers or at a leaders at a Governmental Parastatal. A place where they didn’t remain for long, but got enough coin to not create their own power-base.

I am just saying these things, as we can see similar things is happening to Museveni. Museveni is on the other hand celebrating 35 years since his takeover. Nevertheless, his popularity have been dwindling. He has used the tricks of Mobutu and become Ugandan answer to DRC’s Mobutu. If there was someone like a young Yoweri in the near proximity. They would have the rights to topple him and install someone else. As Museveni used all reasons and said it was for the betterment of DRC to get Laurent Kabila as the President there in 1997. Therefore, Museveni should be careful. Because, the old man has done this to others and his own actions could be applied to himself.

Yoweri Museveni is a walking contradiction and he knows it. If not his deluded and forgotten everything he did in the past. Something I doubt, as the old man is always telling stories that benefit him in the current time. That is how he white-wash history and ensures it fit his any given whims. Just like all the random people have on his pay-roll, as Presidential Advisors and appointed to a government parastatal.

The people despise the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF), Special Force Command (SFC), Uganda Police Force and all the other state security agencies. These entities are all destroying civil society and easily taking lives. They are state sponsoring violence and the civilians are their causalities. The President promotes this violence, usage of force and arbitrary arrests without any proper cause or justification for the action in the first place. Other then these people are associated with opponents and that’s why they are fair game.

We can wonder if Museveni wants to fall out like Mobutu. If he wants to fall out of favours in the West. Be a relic and a man who is a pariah. A man who went from being a donor darling into the total tyrant, which his currently proud of. The old man doesn’t care and he doesn’t mind it seems. That his turning into the 2021 edition of Mobutu. Where his kleptocracy and “Mobutuism” will destroy the republic. Where Museveni have skimmed off the top and built a extensive entourage of soothsayers, a rag-tag team of compromised opponents and loyalists. That is why there are former NRA historicals and Ghetto “Superstars” who was there to boost the President ahead of 2021 election.

Nevertheless, we are now on the 35 year of his reign. The man who promised “fundamental change” and promised more then he have ever given to the Republic. Instead he has turned into everything he promised to be different from. That is why his legacy is destroyed and what remains is how badly he wants to go out. There is no redeeming factor anymore. The old man had the opportunities, but he instead wants to become another Mobutu. Which is not a good look. When he spoke ill of everything Mobutu was about, but now he has become this man.

That what’s uncontrolled and absolute power does to you. It takes away your soul and whatever you possessed before and in return bathes in greed. This is why he resembles and have replicated the ones he promised to be different from. After 35 years in power. There should have been more positive things to look for. However, that train have left the station and there is no return. The General has ordered this meal and now he got to eat it. Even if it is bitter. Peace.

Soon 4 Years since the Kasese Massacre: Some of King Mumbere’s Guards and Officials to be released… [still no real investigation into the matter]

KASESE – The Government is to start releasing subjects and some of the officials of the Obusinga Bwa Rwenzururu who were arrested and jailed following the November 2016 security raid on the cultural institution. During the raid, security forces also picked the Rwenzururu king, Omusinga Charles Wesley Mumbere. Sixteen security operatives and over 100 other subjects died in the incident” (John B. Thawite – ‘Govt to set Rwenzururu suspects free’ 21.11.2020, New Vision).

Since the 26th November 2016 and the Kasese clashes the Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu Charles Wesley Mumbere have been in exile and charged with two counts of murder, which if he had been indicted and on trial for it. The King of the Rwenzururu could get prison for life. However, the King and his men who has been arrested in 2016. Have never gotten justice, neither all the people who died those pivotal days in Kasese and at the Buhikira Royal Place who was burned down as well.

The charge was put on the King on the 28th November 2016. The case against have never been resolved and he has been put in exile ever since. Only allowed one visit to participate in a burial of his mother. Before having to return back to Kampala.

What is also striking about this, there was never any investigation into the murders and the mass-killings, as the Special Force Command and Flying Squad was participating in attacking the Royal Palace in October 2016. Like the state came with official numbers from 2016 was 62 deceased, but these other nunbers 70 identified dead, another 52 unidentified dead and 14 police officers dead. That is near double of what the says, which was 136 killed during the skirmishes.

The claimed they we’re going after the “Kirumiramutima” or “the Strong Hearted” a militia gathering in the area and soldiering up. Working together with the Kingdom. Alas, the reason for the sudden attack on the Palace and killing civilians. This taking lives of the Palace Guards and others in Kasese. However, what is sadly striking… is that this militia have never surfaced before or after the skirmishes of the state. It is seemingly on the state violence and their operation that created the deaths these days 4 years ago.

Still, there have been no investigation or look into the amount of killings. Only a dark and grim day of burring unidentified in a ceremony by clerical persons. Doing it while the army was monitoring the events. Therefore, we know the lives taken was quickly buried and hoped that no one question it.

While the King is charged with murder and has also charged with treason. There has never been any evidence of this. Neither has the militia the state claimed appeared and was dangerous haven’t been seen since the skirmishes four years ago. If that isn’t sign. Nothing really is.

That is why the state has to release these “suspects” because they are pulling things out of thin air. If there was anything. The state would have had a case and found them guilty of conspiring and doing criminal activity. Alas, that is not the case. The same should happen to the Obusinga as well. Since, they have no claim to hold him. Other than loosing their pride.

The ones that need to challenged and questioned for their actions in November 2016. Is the leadership of the SFC and the Flying Squad. This being Presidential Advisor on Security and former leader of the SFC Maj. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerubaga and army commander Gen. Elwelu who both was in-charge that day. However, these two gentlemen has since then promoted and not suffered any consequences over their actions. While the victims of it has faced the law with no proof. This is why they are getting released. The Kings Guard that was arrested shouldn’t only be released, but get punitive damages and get vindicated. Since, this was injustice and making them guilty before being innocent.

What happened in Kasese and the aftermath is the sort of act, which no Government with sense should do to their citizens. Alas, it did happen and went down, a tragedy and massacre. A state sponsored enterprise with no efforts or no investigation into how it did happen. As well as any indication or proof of the supposed intelligence to spark the attack on the Palace in the first place.

Therefore, the injustice and impunity of the state is so viable. The wounds are still fresh. This didn’t happen a decade ago. It just happened months after the previous election. It is therefore vital that this doesn’t go away, but is a reminder of what the state does to its own. How little life matters and little consequences there is taking lives. If it had consequences and had effects on the ones taking the lives in Kasese. They wouldn’t walk free and without any cases against them. These folks in the Flying Squad and Special Force Command wouldn’t be allowed to carry guns. They would be charged with murder and manslaughter themselves. However, that is not the case and it doesn’t seem to happen with this regime. They rather hope people forget and only hopes the families of the lost ones moves on in silence. Peace.

Opinion: Brig. Deus Sande follows a long line partisan army commanders

“They will not hand over power to ideologically bankrupt Politicians” – Brig. Deus Sande

There been so many National Resistance Army (NRA) Generals who has dismissed the opposition. That Sande is going after the National Unity Platform (NUP) and Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine.

The Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) is supposed to be non-partisan. However, they tend to usually sway in favour of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The army is working for the ruling regime and the President. That the will never hand over to anyone who they doesn’t deem fit. Usually they dismiss the opposition in a heart beat.

The Army Commanders and Officers also intimidate and say they will ensure the continuation of the Republic. The UPDF will never leave the Presidency to a doctor or a colonel. This they used to say about Dr. Kizza Besigye. He was never enough or good enough. He was an upstart and not even a good medic. A person who would never be the commander-in-chief of the army.

When they do that Besiye. How do you expect they react to a musician like Bobi Wine? Expect them to just give way and not speak out. These people are used to it and has done so for over a generation.

That is why there been countless of high ranking officials within the UPDF who has dismissed the opposition and their leaders over the years. The same with former Generals who are serving in the Cabinet and who are “elected” Members of Parliament (MP), which are there too. They are all doing the same as Sande.

It is not like his alone in this and speaking out like he did. No, his one out of plenty. There been so many saying these things. That it’s not shocking anymore, but more ordinary fashion from the NRA Historicals, UPDF Commanders and retired army commanders appointed to high ranking roles within the NRM. They are always throwing shade and saying they would never accept a civilian or somebody who is not anointed by them.

Now they are going after Bobi Wine and NUP. In the past it would be the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and Besigye. However, we are in 2020 and Bobi Wine is the main target. Peace.

Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces (UPDF): Operation to pursue escapees from Singila Government Prison in Moroto (17.09.2020)