Uganda: Deficit financing is creating an evil circle financially [72% of revenue spent on debt repayment!]

By implication, if sh15.7 trillion for debt service-related expenditures is subtracted from the sh21.9 trillion the Government will have generated in revenue collection, it means that 72% of the country’s revenue collection would be spent on debt repayment. The committee raised concern that the high rate at which government is borrowing is not commensurate with the low level of increasing government revenue collection and, therefore, violates the country’s charter of fiscal responsibility. The report indicates that as of June 2020, Uganda’s public debt had reached $15.27b, which is equivalent to sh56.9 trillion. Out of this sh38.9 trillion is external debt and sh17.9 trillion domestic debt” (Moses Mulondo – ‘Govt earmarks sh15.7 trillion for debt repayment ‘ 03.02.2021, New Vision)

The news on how the state got to repay old loans is coming out. As the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) have put forward the budget for the Financial Year of 2021/22. This is initially telling stories on the revenue or tax base, which will be preoccupied or used for paying debt repayment.

Just to put things in perspective. This is the definition of ‘Deficit Financing’:

Deficit financing, however, may also result from government inefficiency, reflecting widespread tax evasion or wasteful spending rather than the operation of a planned countercyclical policy. Where capital markets are undeveloped, deficit financing may place the government in debt to foreign creditors. In addition, in many less-developed countries, budget surpluses may be desirable in themselves as a way of encouraging private saving” (Encyclopaedia Britannica – ‘Deficit financing’ (25.08.2015).

This here is telling the story, which the state media and others isn’t telling. Because, they are borrowing funds to cover up for the deficit. The deficit is created as a result of the rising cronyism and misuse of funds. These funds have to cover the bloated government and its staff. That is why deficit is created to fix the shortfall between the needed revenue and the expenditures of the state. They are using loans to cover and fix the lacking revenue of the state. If the state had enough funds through its tax-base, the state wouldn’t need these loans in the fist place.

However, the state have prolonged with this game over years. The state has used loans to cover its baseline and usage of funds. They have went out for foreign creditors to get enough funding. That shows that the state haven’t been fiscal responsible. They have misused the authority of the state and taken up loans, which now accumulate to over 70% of yearly revenue. While this is happening. The state and the Parliament is still issuing new loans and creating a bigger debt burden. That is what they are doing… and that cycle must stop.

Soon, all revenue will go directly to debt repayment. We know the state wants to have debt relief, but this is self-created by the regime, as they are borrowing for basic commodities and necessities. They are always loaning funds to build development projects and infrastructure, which will be costly. As funds are lost and misused in the building of these. That is why the price of road is so expensive and also projects in general. Therefore, the state is crewed over more than it can swallow.

That is why the state is deficit financing and its become a burden, which it cannot carry. The debt is not sustainable. When 72% revenue is spent on debt repayments. That shouldn’t be a thing, but that is fiscal policy of this regime and apologist cannot hide the fact. They have run down the state and taken up loans they cannot carry. Peace.

Obusinga Bwa Rwenzururu: Press Statement about the Burning of hte Omusinga’s Royal Residence in Kasese Town 28th January 2021 (28.01.2021)

Opinion: Museveni have become 2021 edition of Mobutu

Nothing is not my business in this country: everything is my business, everything. The state of education, the state of our economy, the state of our agriculture, the state of our transport, everything is my business” – President Hastings Kamuzu Banda (1972)

In 2021 we can wonder if General Yoweri Kaguta Museveni wants to distort his whole legacy. He has already destroyed much of it and with more time in office. Now with a new term starting soon. The Self-Styled President for Life is soon ending up like Zaire’s Mobutu Sese Seko. Why do I say that? Mobutu was a man Museveni despised. However, it is so unique that he ends up replicating him.

Mobutu ruled Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo) from 1965 to 1997. He ruled the Republic for 32 years after being installed by the CIA and Belgium after the assassination of Patrice Lumumba. Since then he had all power and the state was the personification of him.

What is making him more similar to Yoweri is that they we’re both getting old. In 1997 Mobutu was 67 years old and had cancer. His cabinet was decaying. The army was hated by the general public. An army that killed and preyed on the citizens for their cuts. Mobutu owned several of businesses and the treasury was his personal bank. There was reports that he had an wealth of USD $4 billion.

Another trick Mobutu had to prolong his time in office. Was the usage of Kleptocracy. Where the President held meeting with rivals, chiefs and opponents. Later he would appoint these persons into his cabinet or create positions for them. They became Ministers or at a leaders at a Governmental Parastatal. A place where they didn’t remain for long, but got enough coin to not create their own power-base.

I am just saying these things, as we can see similar things is happening to Museveni. Museveni is on the other hand celebrating 35 years since his takeover. Nevertheless, his popularity have been dwindling. He has used the tricks of Mobutu and become Ugandan answer to DRC’s Mobutu. If there was someone like a young Yoweri in the near proximity. They would have the rights to topple him and install someone else. As Museveni used all reasons and said it was for the betterment of DRC to get Laurent Kabila as the President there in 1997. Therefore, Museveni should be careful. Because, the old man has done this to others and his own actions could be applied to himself.

Yoweri Museveni is a walking contradiction and he knows it. If not his deluded and forgotten everything he did in the past. Something I doubt, as the old man is always telling stories that benefit him in the current time. That is how he white-wash history and ensures it fit his any given whims. Just like all the random people have on his pay-roll, as Presidential Advisors and appointed to a government parastatal.

The people despise the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF), Special Force Command (SFC), Uganda Police Force and all the other state security agencies. These entities are all destroying civil society and easily taking lives. They are state sponsoring violence and the civilians are their causalities. The President promotes this violence, usage of force and arbitrary arrests without any proper cause or justification for the action in the first place. Other then these people are associated with opponents and that’s why they are fair game.

We can wonder if Museveni wants to fall out like Mobutu. If he wants to fall out of favours in the West. Be a relic and a man who is a pariah. A man who went from being a donor darling into the total tyrant, which his currently proud of. The old man doesn’t care and he doesn’t mind it seems. That his turning into the 2021 edition of Mobutu. Where his kleptocracy and “Mobutuism” will destroy the republic. Where Museveni have skimmed off the top and built a extensive entourage of soothsayers, a rag-tag team of compromised opponents and loyalists. That is why there are former NRA historicals and Ghetto “Superstars” who was there to boost the President ahead of 2021 election.

Nevertheless, we are now on the 35 year of his reign. The man who promised “fundamental change” and promised more then he have ever given to the Republic. Instead he has turned into everything he promised to be different from. That is why his legacy is destroyed and what remains is how badly he wants to go out. There is no redeeming factor anymore. The old man had the opportunities, but he instead wants to become another Mobutu. Which is not a good look. When he spoke ill of everything Mobutu was about, but now he has become this man.

That what’s uncontrolled and absolute power does to you. It takes away your soul and whatever you possessed before and in return bathes in greed. This is why he resembles and have replicated the ones he promised to be different from. After 35 years in power. There should have been more positive things to look for. However, that train have left the station and there is no return. The General has ordered this meal and now he got to eat it. Even if it is bitter. Peace.

Soon 4 Years since the Kasese Massacre: Some of King Mumbere’s Guards and Officials to be released… [still no real investigation into the matter]

KASESE – The Government is to start releasing subjects and some of the officials of the Obusinga Bwa Rwenzururu who were arrested and jailed following the November 2016 security raid on the cultural institution. During the raid, security forces also picked the Rwenzururu king, Omusinga Charles Wesley Mumbere. Sixteen security operatives and over 100 other subjects died in the incident” (John B. Thawite – ‘Govt to set Rwenzururu suspects free’ 21.11.2020, New Vision).

Since the 26th November 2016 and the Kasese clashes the Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu Charles Wesley Mumbere have been in exile and charged with two counts of murder, which if he had been indicted and on trial for it. The King of the Rwenzururu could get prison for life. However, the King and his men who has been arrested in 2016. Have never gotten justice, neither all the people who died those pivotal days in Kasese and at the Buhikira Royal Place who was burned down as well.

The charge was put on the King on the 28th November 2016. The case against have never been resolved and he has been put in exile ever since. Only allowed one visit to participate in a burial of his mother. Before having to return back to Kampala.

What is also striking about this, there was never any investigation into the murders and the mass-killings, as the Special Force Command and Flying Squad was participating in attacking the Royal Palace in October 2016. Like the state came with official numbers from 2016 was 62 deceased, but these other nunbers 70 identified dead, another 52 unidentified dead and 14 police officers dead. That is near double of what the says, which was 136 killed during the skirmishes.

The claimed they we’re going after the “Kirumiramutima” or “the Strong Hearted” a militia gathering in the area and soldiering up. Working together with the Kingdom. Alas, the reason for the sudden attack on the Palace and killing civilians. This taking lives of the Palace Guards and others in Kasese. However, what is sadly striking… is that this militia have never surfaced before or after the skirmishes of the state. It is seemingly on the state violence and their operation that created the deaths these days 4 years ago.

Still, there have been no investigation or look into the amount of killings. Only a dark and grim day of burring unidentified in a ceremony by clerical persons. Doing it while the army was monitoring the events. Therefore, we know the lives taken was quickly buried and hoped that no one question it.

While the King is charged with murder and has also charged with treason. There has never been any evidence of this. Neither has the militia the state claimed appeared and was dangerous haven’t been seen since the skirmishes four years ago. If that isn’t sign. Nothing really is.

That is why the state has to release these “suspects” because they are pulling things out of thin air. If there was anything. The state would have had a case and found them guilty of conspiring and doing criminal activity. Alas, that is not the case. The same should happen to the Obusinga as well. Since, they have no claim to hold him. Other than loosing their pride.

The ones that need to challenged and questioned for their actions in November 2016. Is the leadership of the SFC and the Flying Squad. This being Presidential Advisor on Security and former leader of the SFC Maj. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerubaga and army commander Gen. Elwelu who both was in-charge that day. However, these two gentlemen has since then promoted and not suffered any consequences over their actions. While the victims of it has faced the law with no proof. This is why they are getting released. The Kings Guard that was arrested shouldn’t only be released, but get punitive damages and get vindicated. Since, this was injustice and making them guilty before being innocent.

What happened in Kasese and the aftermath is the sort of act, which no Government with sense should do to their citizens. Alas, it did happen and went down, a tragedy and massacre. A state sponsored enterprise with no efforts or no investigation into how it did happen. As well as any indication or proof of the supposed intelligence to spark the attack on the Palace in the first place.

Therefore, the injustice and impunity of the state is so viable. The wounds are still fresh. This didn’t happen a decade ago. It just happened months after the previous election. It is therefore vital that this doesn’t go away, but is a reminder of what the state does to its own. How little life matters and little consequences there is taking lives. If it had consequences and had effects on the ones taking the lives in Kasese. They wouldn’t walk free and without any cases against them. These folks in the Flying Squad and Special Force Command wouldn’t be allowed to carry guns. They would be charged with murder and manslaughter themselves. However, that is not the case and it doesn’t seem to happen with this regime. They rather hope people forget and only hopes the families of the lost ones moves on in silence. Peace.

Opinion: Brig. Deus Sande follows a long line partisan army commanders

“They will not hand over power to ideologically bankrupt Politicians” – Brig. Deus Sande

There been so many National Resistance Army (NRA) Generals who has dismissed the opposition. That Sande is going after the National Unity Platform (NUP) and Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine.

The Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) is supposed to be non-partisan. However, they tend to usually sway in favour of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The army is working for the ruling regime and the President. That the will never hand over to anyone who they doesn’t deem fit. Usually they dismiss the opposition in a heart beat.

The Army Commanders and Officers also intimidate and say they will ensure the continuation of the Republic. The UPDF will never leave the Presidency to a doctor or a colonel. This they used to say about Dr. Kizza Besigye. He was never enough or good enough. He was an upstart and not even a good medic. A person who would never be the commander-in-chief of the army.

When they do that Besiye. How do you expect they react to a musician like Bobi Wine? Expect them to just give way and not speak out. These people are used to it and has done so for over a generation.

That is why there been countless of high ranking officials within the UPDF who has dismissed the opposition and their leaders over the years. The same with former Generals who are serving in the Cabinet and who are “elected” Members of Parliament (MP), which are there too. They are all doing the same as Sande.

It is not like his alone in this and speaking out like he did. No, his one out of plenty. There been so many saying these things. That it’s not shocking anymore, but more ordinary fashion from the NRA Historicals, UPDF Commanders and retired army commanders appointed to high ranking roles within the NRM. They are always throwing shade and saying they would never accept a civilian or somebody who is not anointed by them.

Now they are going after Bobi Wine and NUP. In the past it would be the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and Besigye. However, we are in 2020 and Bobi Wine is the main target. Peace.

Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces (UPDF): Operation to pursue escapees from Singila Government Prison in Moroto (17.09.2020)

A Breakdown: Oil Exploitation, which is so taxing… why are the deals confidential?

Today, the Government of Tanzania have together with the Government of Uganda signed off to a Host Government Agreement (HGA), also together with Total, the supposed builder of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

Today, all the years of waiting, stalling and finding measures of taxes pays-off. We can still wonder what is basic fee structure and what is the price of taxation of the extraction of oil exploitation in the Lake Albertine basin. In the same regard, we can wonder is the specific route for the pipeline and what consequences it will have to nature, reserves and national parks. Because, the drill itself is just in the near proximity of Murchinson Fall National Park. Before it will continue or pass through other untouched areas of both Uganda and Tanzania.

There is still not answers or openness about the deals in the regards to the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) and the Tanzania National Oil Company (TNOC), in combination to the ownership and licences of China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and Total. Therefore, there are plenty of stakeholders and everyone wants to profit on the resources.

With both Republics signing of the HGA agreement and preparing for the Final Investment Decision (FID). The building of the pipeline and the industry can start off. This has also been stopped by taxation and the questionable acquisitions of exploitation licences in Lake Albert. Therefore, the whole Heritage and Tullow taxation case and the costs it had for Total to pay off that. Is still not shown to the public or if the Government of Uganda has forgiven the past company to give way. While Tullow surely wanted profits for their time and the valuable licences they had gotten rights too in earlier rounds.

What is also worrying to me? Well, the deals are not public. The agreements between the Corporations and the Republics are practically unknown and only mere fragments is out. Just like the power-sharing of 60% to Tanzania and 40% to Uganda. Is still not saying much, considering this will be still carved up by Total and CNOOC too, also some sort of deal with UNOC and TNOC. These will not operate on charity, but as a benefactor of the Republic itself.

The public should know this, because it is public resources, state resources and oil exploitation on public land. The companies are using licences and also the same licenses to transport the crude oil in the pipeline from Lake Albert to Port Tanga. Therefore, it is needed to get this knowledge to show the price, the agreements and the possible perks. Because, we don’t if they even have strings or not.

We should wonder why its confidential and kept a secret. The companies should also be displeased, unless they like to exploit without any transparency. Because, these deals and arrangements haven’t been made transparent or with accountability. It has been done in the chambers of Entebbe and in Tanzania. The general public will only see a fraction and not know the full extent.

That is a deliberate action by Presidents and their handlers. The UNOC, TNOC, Total and CNOOC can operate without to much scrutiny and just enjoy the cheers. There is a need to know, but don’t expect it. Since, the GoU and GoT haven’t delivered this in past, neither has the GoU showed anything from the previous deals with Heritage/Tullow. Why should they suddenly change of heart?

I don’t think so… unless there is a sudden miracle. If not … if there is a shady deal and one company feels used and will take it to an international court. Then, we will see some evidence of what went down. However, until then… we only know the bits and pieces. Peace.

A Breakdown: Oil Exploitation, which is so taxing… can start if Tanzania signs a deal too..

Last year in September 2019, the Farm Down Agreement of Tullow Oil was supposed to be traded to Total E&P Uganda. This was a long and prolonged negotiations, as the British Tullow Oil has been in dispute of taxation and payments of fees the Government of Uganda, which was deemed as the “Presidential Handshake”.

What happen yesterday with the Financial Investment Decisions (FID) of Total, as it has taken over the stakes of Tullow Oil. While agreeing on added terms in combination with the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to drill after petroleum in various of blocks on Lake Albert, also build the petroleum pipeline from Hoima to Port Tanga, Tanzania.

The Port Tanga and Pipeline agreement was sealed in 2017 between the Government of Uganda (GoU) and Government of Tanzania (GoT). That after lots of meetings and consultations between the parties. There was some who even tried to get it Port Lamu in Kenya, but that was ditched. Also, causing a rift between Dodoma and Nairobi.

Now, the next step is that Total and CNOOC is able to get a Host Government Agreement (HGA) for the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project. That was agreed by the parties in Entebbe for the territory of Uganda, but it is not sealed with Tanzania.

Though it should be in the interest to sign an agreement with President Magufuli and the CCM. Now, that they have fixed the first part and the licences to drill on Lake Albert. Total and CNOOC needs the HGA in Tanzania too. That will be beneficial for the Republic there too.

This has been a long time… the first reports of agreements and production licenses to blocks on Lake Albert in early 2000s. This was agreements being made between the government and the Tullow/Heritage and ENI as well. Which later has caused rift between the companies and the Republic, as the Oil Companies wasn’t willing to pay taxes and the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) needed to win a Court Case in 2014 to get taxes owned paid by Tullow, as they had to cover the loss of taxes from their acquisition of Heritage Oil.

So, the news today is big. Maybe, the President got another Presidential Handshake, as the Tullow Oil Taxes case brought a lot of kickbacks. The deals sealed between Museveni and Total is a secret. Therefore, only the agreement of what it does is in public, but not the costs, the tax-grade and the limitations of it. Total and CNOOC can have gotten it for cheap for all we know.

That is something for the time to tell. Now, the Lake Albert Basin, the Lake Albert Blocks for drilling is sealed, which has been in question and awaited a verdict for years. The same has the years of a agreement for a company to build the pipeline and pay the rates for having the operation going.

Now, there is one final agreement that needs to be sealed in Tanzania. By all means, the Republic’s needs also to settle the routes, the land-acquisitions and other arrangements too. While the other HGA is necessary to get started. As the process is now moving. The initial agreements are made, but the companies still needs goodwill elsewhere to make this pop-off. This will be years in the making. As the state of Uganda is scheduling a Oil Refinery in 2023, but that depends on everything else goes as planned at this point.

And in this business, at this point, everything that can be stalled and discontinued can happen. Even, if one of the companies stops seeing the financial viability and lack of profits. Than, they might suspend and try to sell the Producing Licenses Agreement to someone else again.

I wouldn’t be shocked, if Total bails out or something. There been so many companies involved and we are still not starting production. This being in the works since the early 2000s with the modern day deals and new arrangement for petroleum activity in the Lake Albert basin. That is why I am reluctant. Because, at any given moment, someone gives way and it sto

Opinion: Baffled that VP Ssekandi won his race…

If there was one National Resistance Movement (NRM) Candidate for Member of Parliament (MP) that I would thought would cease to exist, it would be current day Vice President Edward Ssekandi. Who was running for another term in Bukoto Central County in Greater Masaka.

So, to know that he again get a chance to run in a General Election in 2021. A man who has been an MP since 1996. His been the VP since 2011 and this would continue as long as he got ambition to succeed the President. By all his actions and his way of being in the wind. The VP is secured and can eat like crazy.

VP Ssekandi is a ghost and irrelevant. Still, he was able to get recognition in his constituency. This is why its weird that nobody else would win over him. Someone who would go door-to-door over the years. Steady campaign and be recognized.

Everyone knows that VP Ssekandi exists. No one can state what he has done or delivered. Ssekandi is just a mirage, someone behind the scenes who happens to appear every blue moon.

That’s why its weird that he even get voters behind him. VP Ssekandi might be able to shake a few hands and say a few words at a burial. Nevertheless, his not a great lawmaker, neither is he a representative for change.

VP Ssekandi is the one who doesn’t make a fuzz, doesn’t make a difference and doesn’t even utter a public word. Unless, it is a tribute and a speech for the deceased. The Bukoto Central has initially given way to another public speaker to officiate events. Yes, his not won it yet, but don’t expect shock in the up-coming elections in 2021.

This man will win there too. If his on it, because he knows his the VP for the President for Life. The one who has no ambition and only serves his master. The VP for the bad days and for the glorious occasions. However, he will never be there to say anything to rock the boat. Neither, will he cause any controversy or even issue a statement on a scandal.

This man is the true testament to live ghosts. The silent whisperer and the one haunts the VP position.

Ssekandi is like an eidolon or a poltergeist, even if he is a real person. Because, he is usually not seen or in public. Even if he is a high ranking government official and a MP.

It is hard to think he is a mortal, but immortal instead. A supernatural person, who gets re-elected and continues to be spirit flying over the Republic. For some reason, the state, the party sees him as useful.

That’s why he “wins” elections. Because, it cannot be for his charismatic persona or his track-record. Because, anyone who has made a motion, petition or even an article in New Vision has done more than this man. Peace.

Opinion: The UPDF is untouchable in the eyes of the President (!)

f you are not working for the enemy, you cannot go on the social-media and demand that we publish the names of the personnel of UPDF, their ranks and their jobs. The only thing we can say and what you know is that recruitment into the Police and UPDF is by quota. Beyond that, leave our Army alone and I mean, leave our Army alone”Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (03.09.2020).

In the response the President wrote today. He addressed a lot of matters. That is why I am making a second post on it. This time about the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) or the Army. We are seeing how the President is defending it. As there been inquiries and questions about how the army is a “western” Ugandan enterprise filled with high ranking officials from there. This is something Museveni doesn’t want to properly address.

I’m not shocked he is dismissing it. That his calling people enemies for doing so. Because, if the UPDF isn’t filled with loyal cadres. He would be frightened, as his popularity in the public is frail over the years. The President needs the army and armed forces, because the public isn’t behind him anymore. That is why the President doesn’t accept accountability or transparency in concern with the UPDF.

Coming to the Armed Forces, especially the Army, my advice to all of you, is that leave your Army out of that nonsense. The NRA, the UPDF are Armies of sacrifice, all the time for no pay or low pay. They (we) put their lives on the line. Therefore, leave UPDF out of the circus of sectarianism. Fighters, real fighters, never have interests in tribes or religious sectarianism; but in comrade-in-arms” – Museveni (03.09.2020).

Because, we know the UPDF have a history of selective recruitment and promotions. If the President wanted to be against sectarianism and be open to all tribes of the Republic. There wouldn’t be an issue, if it wasn’t something there.

This has been known for a long while… the UPDF and the army is filled high ranking officials from Western Uganda. That is not just mere speculation, but facts at this point. If it wasn’t so, the President would say so. However, he doesn’t want people to question the reasons for it.

He wants the people to accept it and leave it alone. It is wrong to look into the armed forces and its structure. That shows that the President fears scrutiny and transparency about this. He wants to stop questions and silence it.

The president knows his only way to keep power is having the loyalty and the control of the army. If he looses that at this point…. he will loose power and it will end his reign. The President needs the soldiers, generals and armed forces all behind him. He needs to have their backs and not loose them.

That is why the President doesn’t want anyone to look into the army and what it does. The UPDF is therefore untouchable… at least in the eyes of the President. However, that is not good. As the UPDF should defend the territory and its citizens. Not be a weapon of intimidation or tactics to scare the public. It is there to defend them.

If the President is that defensive and scared of looking into the army. You know his in trouble and worried about the truth. He should be open, transparent and accountable about it. Alas, his not, because he knows… as we know that its not run like it should. Peace.