Opinion: Museveni have become 2021 edition of Mobutu

Nothing is not my business in this country: everything is my business, everything. The state of education, the state of our economy, the state of our agriculture, the state of our transport, everything is my business” – President Hastings Kamuzu Banda (1972)

In 2021 we can wonder if General Yoweri Kaguta Museveni wants to distort his whole legacy. He has already destroyed much of it and with more time in office. Now with a new term starting soon. The Self-Styled President for Life is soon ending up like Zaire’s Mobutu Sese Seko. Why do I say that? Mobutu was a man Museveni despised. However, it is so unique that he ends up replicating him.

Mobutu ruled Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo) from 1965 to 1997. He ruled the Republic for 32 years after being installed by the CIA and Belgium after the assassination of Patrice Lumumba. Since then he had all power and the state was the personification of him.

What is making him more similar to Yoweri is that they we’re both getting old. In 1997 Mobutu was 67 years old and had cancer. His cabinet was decaying. The army was hated by the general public. An army that killed and preyed on the citizens for their cuts. Mobutu owned several of businesses and the treasury was his personal bank. There was reports that he had an wealth of USD $4 billion.

Another trick Mobutu had to prolong his time in office. Was the usage of Kleptocracy. Where the President held meeting with rivals, chiefs and opponents. Later he would appoint these persons into his cabinet or create positions for them. They became Ministers or at a leaders at a Governmental Parastatal. A place where they didn’t remain for long, but got enough coin to not create their own power-base.

I am just saying these things, as we can see similar things is happening to Museveni. Museveni is on the other hand celebrating 35 years since his takeover. Nevertheless, his popularity have been dwindling. He has used the tricks of Mobutu and become Ugandan answer to DRC’s Mobutu. If there was someone like a young Yoweri in the near proximity. They would have the rights to topple him and install someone else. As Museveni used all reasons and said it was for the betterment of DRC to get Laurent Kabila as the President there in 1997. Therefore, Museveni should be careful. Because, the old man has done this to others and his own actions could be applied to himself.

Yoweri Museveni is a walking contradiction and he knows it. If not his deluded and forgotten everything he did in the past. Something I doubt, as the old man is always telling stories that benefit him in the current time. That is how he white-wash history and ensures it fit his any given whims. Just like all the random people have on his pay-roll, as Presidential Advisors and appointed to a government parastatal.

The people despise the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF), Special Force Command (SFC), Uganda Police Force and all the other state security agencies. These entities are all destroying civil society and easily taking lives. They are state sponsoring violence and the civilians are their causalities. The President promotes this violence, usage of force and arbitrary arrests without any proper cause or justification for the action in the first place. Other then these people are associated with opponents and that’s why they are fair game.

We can wonder if Museveni wants to fall out like Mobutu. If he wants to fall out of favours in the West. Be a relic and a man who is a pariah. A man who went from being a donor darling into the total tyrant, which his currently proud of. The old man doesn’t care and he doesn’t mind it seems. That his turning into the 2021 edition of Mobutu. Where his kleptocracy and “Mobutuism” will destroy the republic. Where Museveni have skimmed off the top and built a extensive entourage of soothsayers, a rag-tag team of compromised opponents and loyalists. That is why there are former NRA historicals and Ghetto “Superstars” who was there to boost the President ahead of 2021 election.

Nevertheless, we are now on the 35 year of his reign. The man who promised “fundamental change” and promised more then he have ever given to the Republic. Instead he has turned into everything he promised to be different from. That is why his legacy is destroyed and what remains is how badly he wants to go out. There is no redeeming factor anymore. The old man had the opportunities, but he instead wants to become another Mobutu. Which is not a good look. When he spoke ill of everything Mobutu was about, but now he has become this man.

That what’s uncontrolled and absolute power does to you. It takes away your soul and whatever you possessed before and in return bathes in greed. This is why he resembles and have replicated the ones he promised to be different from. After 35 years in power. There should have been more positive things to look for. However, that train have left the station and there is no return. The General has ordered this meal and now he got to eat it. Even if it is bitter. Peace.

Burundi: Mouvement pour la Solidarite et la Democratie (MSD) – Press Statement (06.12.2020)

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A Breakdown: Oil Exploitation, which is so taxing… why are the deals confidential?

Today, the Government of Tanzania have together with the Government of Uganda signed off to a Host Government Agreement (HGA), also together with Total, the supposed builder of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

Today, all the years of waiting, stalling and finding measures of taxes pays-off. We can still wonder what is basic fee structure and what is the price of taxation of the extraction of oil exploitation in the Lake Albertine basin. In the same regard, we can wonder is the specific route for the pipeline and what consequences it will have to nature, reserves and national parks. Because, the drill itself is just in the near proximity of Murchinson Fall National Park. Before it will continue or pass through other untouched areas of both Uganda and Tanzania.

There is still not answers or openness about the deals in the regards to the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) and the Tanzania National Oil Company (TNOC), in combination to the ownership and licences of China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and Total. Therefore, there are plenty of stakeholders and everyone wants to profit on the resources.

With both Republics signing of the HGA agreement and preparing for the Final Investment Decision (FID). The building of the pipeline and the industry can start off. This has also been stopped by taxation and the questionable acquisitions of exploitation licences in Lake Albert. Therefore, the whole Heritage and Tullow taxation case and the costs it had for Total to pay off that. Is still not shown to the public or if the Government of Uganda has forgiven the past company to give way. While Tullow surely wanted profits for their time and the valuable licences they had gotten rights too in earlier rounds.

What is also worrying to me? Well, the deals are not public. The agreements between the Corporations and the Republics are practically unknown and only mere fragments is out. Just like the power-sharing of 60% to Tanzania and 40% to Uganda. Is still not saying much, considering this will be still carved up by Total and CNOOC too, also some sort of deal with UNOC and TNOC. These will not operate on charity, but as a benefactor of the Republic itself.

The public should know this, because it is public resources, state resources and oil exploitation on public land. The companies are using licences and also the same licenses to transport the crude oil in the pipeline from Lake Albert to Port Tanga. Therefore, it is needed to get this knowledge to show the price, the agreements and the possible perks. Because, we don’t if they even have strings or not.

We should wonder why its confidential and kept a secret. The companies should also be displeased, unless they like to exploit without any transparency. Because, these deals and arrangements haven’t been made transparent or with accountability. It has been done in the chambers of Entebbe and in Tanzania. The general public will only see a fraction and not know the full extent.

That is a deliberate action by Presidents and their handlers. The UNOC, TNOC, Total and CNOOC can operate without to much scrutiny and just enjoy the cheers. There is a need to know, but don’t expect it. Since, the GoU and GoT haven’t delivered this in past, neither has the GoU showed anything from the previous deals with Heritage/Tullow. Why should they suddenly change of heart?

I don’t think so… unless there is a sudden miracle. If not … if there is a shady deal and one company feels used and will take it to an international court. Then, we will see some evidence of what went down. However, until then… we only know the bits and pieces. Peace.

A Breakdown: Oil Exploitation, which is so taxing… can start if Tanzania signs a deal too..

Last year in September 2019, the Farm Down Agreement of Tullow Oil was supposed to be traded to Total E&P Uganda. This was a long and prolonged negotiations, as the British Tullow Oil has been in dispute of taxation and payments of fees the Government of Uganda, which was deemed as the “Presidential Handshake”.

What happen yesterday with the Financial Investment Decisions (FID) of Total, as it has taken over the stakes of Tullow Oil. While agreeing on added terms in combination with the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to drill after petroleum in various of blocks on Lake Albert, also build the petroleum pipeline from Hoima to Port Tanga, Tanzania.

The Port Tanga and Pipeline agreement was sealed in 2017 between the Government of Uganda (GoU) and Government of Tanzania (GoT). That after lots of meetings and consultations between the parties. There was some who even tried to get it Port Lamu in Kenya, but that was ditched. Also, causing a rift between Dodoma and Nairobi.

Now, the next step is that Total and CNOOC is able to get a Host Government Agreement (HGA) for the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project. That was agreed by the parties in Entebbe for the territory of Uganda, but it is not sealed with Tanzania.

Though it should be in the interest to sign an agreement with President Magufuli and the CCM. Now, that they have fixed the first part and the licences to drill on Lake Albert. Total and CNOOC needs the HGA in Tanzania too. That will be beneficial for the Republic there too.

This has been a long time… the first reports of agreements and production licenses to blocks on Lake Albert in early 2000s. This was agreements being made between the government and the Tullow/Heritage and ENI as well. Which later has caused rift between the companies and the Republic, as the Oil Companies wasn’t willing to pay taxes and the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) needed to win a Court Case in 2014 to get taxes owned paid by Tullow, as they had to cover the loss of taxes from their acquisition of Heritage Oil.

So, the news today is big. Maybe, the President got another Presidential Handshake, as the Tullow Oil Taxes case brought a lot of kickbacks. The deals sealed between Museveni and Total is a secret. Therefore, only the agreement of what it does is in public, but not the costs, the tax-grade and the limitations of it. Total and CNOOC can have gotten it for cheap for all we know.

That is something for the time to tell. Now, the Lake Albert Basin, the Lake Albert Blocks for drilling is sealed, which has been in question and awaited a verdict for years. The same has the years of a agreement for a company to build the pipeline and pay the rates for having the operation going.

Now, there is one final agreement that needs to be sealed in Tanzania. By all means, the Republic’s needs also to settle the routes, the land-acquisitions and other arrangements too. While the other HGA is necessary to get started. As the process is now moving. The initial agreements are made, but the companies still needs goodwill elsewhere to make this pop-off. This will be years in the making. As the state of Uganda is scheduling a Oil Refinery in 2023, but that depends on everything else goes as planned at this point.

And in this business, at this point, everything that can be stalled and discontinued can happen. Even, if one of the companies stops seeing the financial viability and lack of profits. Than, they might suspend and try to sell the Producing Licenses Agreement to someone else again.

I wouldn’t be shocked, if Total bails out or something. There been so many companies involved and we are still not starting production. This being in the works since the early 2000s with the modern day deals and new arrangement for petroleum activity in the Lake Albert basin. That is why I am reluctant. Because, at any given moment, someone gives way and it sto

Opinion: Beatrice Anywar is a lesson on how unforgiving politics can be…

Any minute there is an opportunity, I will go to President Museveni with no regret. He is a great leader because he is tolerant. He is able to listen to some of us,”Beatrice Anywar (December 2017).

At one point in her career. What is sad is that Beatrice Anywar was respected, honoured and feared. She was seen as a person of moral and resilience. A person who would stand up against oppression and for just causes. That was why she was nicknamed “Mama Mabira”, as she fought against illegal landgrabbing of Mabira Forest and using it for sugar-cane plantations.

Alas, that is years ago. Ahead of 2016 her ugly side was shown. As she walked around with Amama Mbabazi and his Go Forward. While, she was still contesting in the Forum for Democratic Change for Kitgum Municipality MP seat. This was after she had nominated Mbabazi, which was seen as a betrayal in the eyes of the FDC. 

In march 2018 she was accepted by the President and she also became a Member of the NRM. That leaving all doubts about her future. As she was spotted everywhere in yellow dresses and defending her change of heart. Beatrice even held a rally introducing Museveni to Kitgum as her guest.

She was appointed in december 2019 to the Cabinet and became a minister. So just mere months later her relevance for the President and party is shown.

Beatrice have left the FDC in 2016 to run as a independent after showing allegiance to Amama instead of Besigye. That is why she shown her self to the public by doing this alone.

Now, she is even more lost. She tried to run in the NRM, but wasn’t even on the ballot. She lost the NRM Primaries without even trying. She’s a NRM Member and a Minister. However, she’s not useful or have a standing anymore. Beatrice is even getting the cold shoulder, as the President doesn’t pick up her calls.

Anywar was once respected. She had it all. Fought the good fight and was behind people. Instead of building on that reputation. Beatrice decided to be selfish and get quick fixes to power. Her decisions now follows her.

Anywar first betrayed the FDC. Than, she has betrayed her opposition fellows totally by leaving her Independent MP stance. She became a yellow and a person behind the President. A President who didn’t care for her or her causes. That is why she wasn’t even there on the ballot. The NRM have used her and can now leave her alone.

Beatrice Anywar have used her platform, her position for selfish gains and now has to live with it. Seen as a Iron-Lady, a Fire-Band MP. Onto a suck-up and praising to the choir. Now, she’s left alone and not even respected by her own party in Kitgum. The one she represented in Cabinet and Parliament until late.

That must hurt her pride. To be ditched and left astray. “Mama Mabira” the one with a fierce tone and standing up against injustice. Are now without a home. Kitgum NRM doesn’t respect her and feels she haven’t deserved it. The NRM haven’t even had her on the ballot. This after publicly supporting the President and his cause.

That’s shows that nothing is permanent in politics. When you gamble and trade, you either win or loose. The deal that gave her a Ministerial Position didn’t give her any other favours. She now has to yet again fight as an Independent. However, everyone knows she can be bought and isn’t an iron-lady. Just another meal-ticket politician, who can be used and forgotten. Peace.

Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XXVIII: Office of the President – Border Incursions by Rwandan Security Forces on Ugandan Territory (04.08.2020)

Opinion: The RNC is weakened as a fraction starts the RAC

This isn’t the first time a sponsored militia goes separate ways. The Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) have created many different outfits and the biggest currently of those is the Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD).

In July this year the Rwanda National Congress is split into two parts. This being the RNC run by Kayumba Nyamwasa, who has support from Kampala. While in Canada, the diaspora of RNC have launched the Rwanda Alliance for Change (RAC) on the 6th July 2020. The signatories to the manifesto, which is also online is Bellamin Bakamira, Tabitha Gwiza, Achille Kamana, Anicet Karege, Saleh Musoni Karuranga, Pacifique Mukobwajana, Dr. Etienne Ndagijimana, Jean Paul Turayishimye and Benoit Umuhoza.

Clearly Nyamwasa is losing his support in Canada and that is weakening the RNC. The RNC have been run by him and with his orders. That has over time caused friction and therefore, the new one is created. We can wonder, if the diaspora based RAC will try to convene a meeting in Kisoro or elsewhere in Uganda too. As the RNC have been recruiting in Uganda.

The MRCD is already weakened, as they caused issues for Kigali last year. However, we can wonder how the operations are going. As they have been known for attacks from Burundi. While the RNC have only lost people after high ranking officials held talks in Uganda last year.

This has all created diplomatic entanglements between Kigali and Kampala. As the proxy wars are hitting home. The Kigali based diplomats wants Kampala to stop supporting efforts to undermine their reign. While Kampala doesn’t listen to it. They are continuing it.

We can wonder, other then t he main objective to topple the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). Like all of these outfits are claiming is their will. While they cannot work together for too long.

Now that its another militia with goal and objectives in the sphere. That for some reason will be around. We can wonder how big it is and where it will recruit. Even the manpower and their planned operation. Other than going after the RPF and President Kagame.

The only looser here is Nyamwasa and his allies. They are loosing support and getting another competition. While Kigali will get it easier, as there are smaller fractions and will have less suction. It will also be easier for intelligence operations get a whiff of what is going on.

However, we cannot know until more information is out. Clearly, there are shady works being done behind closed doors. Nevertheless, 2020 continues to deliver and we can wonder what costs the RAC will have. Peace.

Museveni: How many times can you sell the same dream?

These things appear to be happening quick. Todays launch of his candidacy as President and Chairman of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). It is just all protocol and more of the same. It is neither funny nor insightful. Just another day in the Republic.

That Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is a Presidential Candidate was written in stone. It was in the hieroglyphics and in the ancient scrolls long before we were born. This is a way of life and how it treats us.

The removal of both term limits and age limits has all been in favour of one man. The man who proudly put these mechanisms in the new Constitution but deleted it when it didn’t fit him anymore. He didn’t change the law for the betterment of the Republic, but for his own selfish gain.

We can act like today is special, that the announcement is shocking. Breaking news. Read all about it. Well, we knew this was happening. Only the blindfolded, the ones with naïve thought someone else would pass the throne. That would be a miracle and a sensation. This would have sparked amusing tones and wonders. Because, it would not concur with the legends of ancient times.

This has been the case since the takeover of Kampala, 26th January 1986. Since then it has been all Museveni. He has ruled supreme. Been the Don and the Kingpin. The man in-charge and the only man with a vision. The one who is only fit to rule, and the rest must beg for mercy. That is what it is.

That’s why today isn’t special. His been selling the same story since that day. The day of fundamental change, the correct line and all of that. It has been his mustard seed of hope, which has turned into despair. We can act like everything is cool, but the man who will drop a manifesto for his 8th Term. Will most likely promise similar things of the past. The same sort of promises and possibly new lingo, but still the same tools from the shed.

It is a revised 10-point programme. The same sort of pledges and promises of a dream never succeeded. Because, he never intended to put the work in or deliver any of those. Just by mere luck that donors paid the duties and costs for a while. To keep the charade going.

Now, we are in 2020. In a time where his preparing for 2021. Alas his legacy is distorted, as people are arrested for poems, Facebook posts and jokes. There is no bottom, only an endless pit of suffering for the ones who oppose this man. Sooner or later the law catches up with you and give you a phony charge. A charge that you will keep and will haunt you.

So, will you believe in the man that has given out promises all his career and all his life? Only to determine or not even prioritize them. A man who has decided his own reign counters all other obligations of the state. Everyone must be jolly that he rules, and that his words are divine.

Today, was all ready prepared. Everything was aligned with it, the stars, the moons and the nsenene. Everyone was ready for this. It was inevitable. This wasn’t a journey; it was a road already taken. We have been here before and we just repeating the same thing over, and over again. Peace.