A Breakdown: Oil Exploitation, which is so taxing… why are the deals confidential?

Today, the Government of Tanzania have together with the Government of Uganda signed off to a Host Government Agreement (HGA), also together with Total, the supposed builder of the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

Today, all the years of waiting, stalling and finding measures of taxes pays-off. We can still wonder what is basic fee structure and what is the price of taxation of the extraction of oil exploitation in the Lake Albertine basin. In the same regard, we can wonder is the specific route for the pipeline and what consequences it will have to nature, reserves and national parks. Because, the drill itself is just in the near proximity of Murchinson Fall National Park. Before it will continue or pass through other untouched areas of both Uganda and Tanzania.

There is still not answers or openness about the deals in the regards to the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) and the Tanzania National Oil Company (TNOC), in combination to the ownership and licences of China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) and Total. Therefore, there are plenty of stakeholders and everyone wants to profit on the resources.

With both Republics signing of the HGA agreement and preparing for the Final Investment Decision (FID). The building of the pipeline and the industry can start off. This has also been stopped by taxation and the questionable acquisitions of exploitation licences in Lake Albert. Therefore, the whole Heritage and Tullow taxation case and the costs it had for Total to pay off that. Is still not shown to the public or if the Government of Uganda has forgiven the past company to give way. While Tullow surely wanted profits for their time and the valuable licences they had gotten rights too in earlier rounds.

What is also worrying to me? Well, the deals are not public. The agreements between the Corporations and the Republics are practically unknown and only mere fragments is out. Just like the power-sharing of 60% to Tanzania and 40% to Uganda. Is still not saying much, considering this will be still carved up by Total and CNOOC too, also some sort of deal with UNOC and TNOC. These will not operate on charity, but as a benefactor of the Republic itself.

The public should know this, because it is public resources, state resources and oil exploitation on public land. The companies are using licences and also the same licenses to transport the crude oil in the pipeline from Lake Albert to Port Tanga. Therefore, it is needed to get this knowledge to show the price, the agreements and the possible perks. Because, we don’t if they even have strings or not.

We should wonder why its confidential and kept a secret. The companies should also be displeased, unless they like to exploit without any transparency. Because, these deals and arrangements haven’t been made transparent or with accountability. It has been done in the chambers of Entebbe and in Tanzania. The general public will only see a fraction and not know the full extent.

That is a deliberate action by Presidents and their handlers. The UNOC, TNOC, Total and CNOOC can operate without to much scrutiny and just enjoy the cheers. There is a need to know, but don’t expect it. Since, the GoU and GoT haven’t delivered this in past, neither has the GoU showed anything from the previous deals with Heritage/Tullow. Why should they suddenly change of heart?

I don’t think so… unless there is a sudden miracle. If not … if there is a shady deal and one company feels used and will take it to an international court. Then, we will see some evidence of what went down. However, until then… we only know the bits and pieces. Peace.

A Breakdown: Oil Exploitation, which is so taxing… can start if Tanzania signs a deal too..

Last year in September 2019, the Farm Down Agreement of Tullow Oil was supposed to be traded to Total E&P Uganda. This was a long and prolonged negotiations, as the British Tullow Oil has been in dispute of taxation and payments of fees the Government of Uganda, which was deemed as the “Presidential Handshake”.

What happen yesterday with the Financial Investment Decisions (FID) of Total, as it has taken over the stakes of Tullow Oil. While agreeing on added terms in combination with the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to drill after petroleum in various of blocks on Lake Albert, also build the petroleum pipeline from Hoima to Port Tanga, Tanzania.

The Port Tanga and Pipeline agreement was sealed in 2017 between the Government of Uganda (GoU) and Government of Tanzania (GoT). That after lots of meetings and consultations between the parties. There was some who even tried to get it Port Lamu in Kenya, but that was ditched. Also, causing a rift between Dodoma and Nairobi.

Now, the next step is that Total and CNOOC is able to get a Host Government Agreement (HGA) for the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project. That was agreed by the parties in Entebbe for the territory of Uganda, but it is not sealed with Tanzania.

Though it should be in the interest to sign an agreement with President Magufuli and the CCM. Now, that they have fixed the first part and the licences to drill on Lake Albert. Total and CNOOC needs the HGA in Tanzania too. That will be beneficial for the Republic there too.

This has been a long time… the first reports of agreements and production licenses to blocks on Lake Albert in early 2000s. This was agreements being made between the government and the Tullow/Heritage and ENI as well. Which later has caused rift between the companies and the Republic, as the Oil Companies wasn’t willing to pay taxes and the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) needed to win a Court Case in 2014 to get taxes owned paid by Tullow, as they had to cover the loss of taxes from their acquisition of Heritage Oil.

So, the news today is big. Maybe, the President got another Presidential Handshake, as the Tullow Oil Taxes case brought a lot of kickbacks. The deals sealed between Museveni and Total is a secret. Therefore, only the agreement of what it does is in public, but not the costs, the tax-grade and the limitations of it. Total and CNOOC can have gotten it for cheap for all we know.

That is something for the time to tell. Now, the Lake Albert Basin, the Lake Albert Blocks for drilling is sealed, which has been in question and awaited a verdict for years. The same has the years of a agreement for a company to build the pipeline and pay the rates for having the operation going.

Now, there is one final agreement that needs to be sealed in Tanzania. By all means, the Republic’s needs also to settle the routes, the land-acquisitions and other arrangements too. While the other HGA is necessary to get started. As the process is now moving. The initial agreements are made, but the companies still needs goodwill elsewhere to make this pop-off. This will be years in the making. As the state of Uganda is scheduling a Oil Refinery in 2023, but that depends on everything else goes as planned at this point.

And in this business, at this point, everything that can be stalled and discontinued can happen. Even, if one of the companies stops seeing the financial viability and lack of profits. Than, they might suspend and try to sell the Producing Licenses Agreement to someone else again.

I wouldn’t be shocked, if Total bails out or something. There been so many companies involved and we are still not starting production. This being in the works since the early 2000s with the modern day deals and new arrangement for petroleum activity in the Lake Albert basin. That is why I am reluctant. Because, at any given moment, someone gives way and it sto

Opinion: Beatrice Anywar is a lesson on how unforgiving politics can be…

Any minute there is an opportunity, I will go to President Museveni with no regret. He is a great leader because he is tolerant. He is able to listen to some of us,”Beatrice Anywar (December 2017).

At one point in her career. What is sad is that Beatrice Anywar was respected, honoured and feared. She was seen as a person of moral and resilience. A person who would stand up against oppression and for just causes. That was why she was nicknamed “Mama Mabira”, as she fought against illegal landgrabbing of Mabira Forest and using it for sugar-cane plantations.

Alas, that is years ago. Ahead of 2016 her ugly side was shown. As she walked around with Amama Mbabazi and his Go Forward. While, she was still contesting in the Forum for Democratic Change for Kitgum Municipality MP seat. This was after she had nominated Mbabazi, which was seen as a betrayal in the eyes of the FDC. 

In march 2018 she was accepted by the President and she also became a Member of the NRM. That leaving all doubts about her future. As she was spotted everywhere in yellow dresses and defending her change of heart. Beatrice even held a rally introducing Museveni to Kitgum as her guest.

She was appointed in december 2019 to the Cabinet and became a minister. So just mere months later her relevance for the President and party is shown.

Beatrice have left the FDC in 2016 to run as a independent after showing allegiance to Amama instead of Besigye. That is why she shown her self to the public by doing this alone.

Now, she is even more lost. She tried to run in the NRM, but wasn’t even on the ballot. She lost the NRM Primaries without even trying. She’s a NRM Member and a Minister. However, she’s not useful or have a standing anymore. Beatrice is even getting the cold shoulder, as the President doesn’t pick up her calls.

Anywar was once respected. She had it all. Fought the good fight and was behind people. Instead of building on that reputation. Beatrice decided to be selfish and get quick fixes to power. Her decisions now follows her.

Anywar first betrayed the FDC. Than, she has betrayed her opposition fellows totally by leaving her Independent MP stance. She became a yellow and a person behind the President. A President who didn’t care for her or her causes. That is why she wasn’t even there on the ballot. The NRM have used her and can now leave her alone.

Beatrice Anywar have used her platform, her position for selfish gains and now has to live with it. Seen as a Iron-Lady, a Fire-Band MP. Onto a suck-up and praising to the choir. Now, she’s left alone and not even respected by her own party in Kitgum. The one she represented in Cabinet and Parliament until late.

That must hurt her pride. To be ditched and left astray. “Mama Mabira” the one with a fierce tone and standing up against injustice. Are now without a home. Kitgum NRM doesn’t respect her and feels she haven’t deserved it. The NRM haven’t even had her on the ballot. This after publicly supporting the President and his cause.

That’s shows that nothing is permanent in politics. When you gamble and trade, you either win or loose. The deal that gave her a Ministerial Position didn’t give her any other favours. She now has to yet again fight as an Independent. However, everyone knows she can be bought and isn’t an iron-lady. Just another meal-ticket politician, who can be used and forgotten. Peace.

Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XXVIII: Office of the President – Border Incursions by Rwandan Security Forces on Ugandan Territory (04.08.2020)

Opinion: The RNC is weakened as a fraction starts the RAC

This isn’t the first time a sponsored militia goes separate ways. The Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) have created many different outfits and the biggest currently of those is the Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD).

In July this year the Rwanda National Congress is split into two parts. This being the RNC run by Kayumba Nyamwasa, who has support from Kampala. While in Canada, the diaspora of RNC have launched the Rwanda Alliance for Change (RAC) on the 6th July 2020. The signatories to the manifesto, which is also online is Bellamin Bakamira, Tabitha Gwiza, Achille Kamana, Anicet Karege, Saleh Musoni Karuranga, Pacifique Mukobwajana, Dr. Etienne Ndagijimana, Jean Paul Turayishimye and Benoit Umuhoza.

Clearly Nyamwasa is losing his support in Canada and that is weakening the RNC. The RNC have been run by him and with his orders. That has over time caused friction and therefore, the new one is created. We can wonder, if the diaspora based RAC will try to convene a meeting in Kisoro or elsewhere in Uganda too. As the RNC have been recruiting in Uganda.

The MRCD is already weakened, as they caused issues for Kigali last year. However, we can wonder how the operations are going. As they have been known for attacks from Burundi. While the RNC have only lost people after high ranking officials held talks in Uganda last year.

This has all created diplomatic entanglements between Kigali and Kampala. As the proxy wars are hitting home. The Kigali based diplomats wants Kampala to stop supporting efforts to undermine their reign. While Kampala doesn’t listen to it. They are continuing it.

We can wonder, other then t he main objective to topple the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). Like all of these outfits are claiming is their will. While they cannot work together for too long.

Now that its another militia with goal and objectives in the sphere. That for some reason will be around. We can wonder how big it is and where it will recruit. Even the manpower and their planned operation. Other than going after the RPF and President Kagame.

The only looser here is Nyamwasa and his allies. They are loosing support and getting another competition. While Kigali will get it easier, as there are smaller fractions and will have less suction. It will also be easier for intelligence operations get a whiff of what is going on.

However, we cannot know until more information is out. Clearly, there are shady works being done behind closed doors. Nevertheless, 2020 continues to deliver and we can wonder what costs the RAC will have. Peace.

Museveni: How many times can you sell the same dream?

These things appear to be happening quick. Todays launch of his candidacy as President and Chairman of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). It is just all protocol and more of the same. It is neither funny nor insightful. Just another day in the Republic.

That Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is a Presidential Candidate was written in stone. It was in the hieroglyphics and in the ancient scrolls long before we were born. This is a way of life and how it treats us.

The removal of both term limits and age limits has all been in favour of one man. The man who proudly put these mechanisms in the new Constitution but deleted it when it didn’t fit him anymore. He didn’t change the law for the betterment of the Republic, but for his own selfish gain.

We can act like today is special, that the announcement is shocking. Breaking news. Read all about it. Well, we knew this was happening. Only the blindfolded, the ones with naïve thought someone else would pass the throne. That would be a miracle and a sensation. This would have sparked amusing tones and wonders. Because, it would not concur with the legends of ancient times.

This has been the case since the takeover of Kampala, 26th January 1986. Since then it has been all Museveni. He has ruled supreme. Been the Don and the Kingpin. The man in-charge and the only man with a vision. The one who is only fit to rule, and the rest must beg for mercy. That is what it is.

That’s why today isn’t special. His been selling the same story since that day. The day of fundamental change, the correct line and all of that. It has been his mustard seed of hope, which has turned into despair. We can act like everything is cool, but the man who will drop a manifesto for his 8th Term. Will most likely promise similar things of the past. The same sort of promises and possibly new lingo, but still the same tools from the shed.

It is a revised 10-point programme. The same sort of pledges and promises of a dream never succeeded. Because, he never intended to put the work in or deliver any of those. Just by mere luck that donors paid the duties and costs for a while. To keep the charade going.

Now, we are in 2020. In a time where his preparing for 2021. Alas his legacy is distorted, as people are arrested for poems, Facebook posts and jokes. There is no bottom, only an endless pit of suffering for the ones who oppose this man. Sooner or later the law catches up with you and give you a phony charge. A charge that you will keep and will haunt you.

So, will you believe in the man that has given out promises all his career and all his life? Only to determine or not even prioritize them. A man who has decided his own reign counters all other obligations of the state. Everyone must be jolly that he rules, and that his words are divine.

Today, was all ready prepared. Everything was aligned with it, the stars, the moons and the nsenene. Everyone was ready for this. It was inevitable. This wasn’t a journey; it was a road already taken. We have been here before and we just repeating the same thing over, and over again. Peace.

Rwanda: FDU-Inkingi – Communique de Presse – Les FDU-Inkingi denoncent une eneme tentative de desinformation et de calomnie a leur encontre par le regime du Front Patriotique Rwandais (21.07.2020)

Opinion: Museveni, running for his eight term… [1986-2026]

Well, the scholars will say its his 6th Term, which I defiantly says “no” too. That is not true. They are currently saying his on his fifth term. That he was elected in 2016 for his 5th. However, if you do that, then your taking away his first 10 years in power. You are initially deleting the years between 1986 to 1996 and that is not fair. That is unjustified behaviour and rewriting history. The Republic of Uganda doesn’t deserve that.

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is currently in his Seventh Term. You can calculate the 5 times and see that I am onto something. That the man who has run the Republic are in his 34 years in power and by 2021 is at his 35th. By the end of the next term he will be close to 40 years. Which by dividing 40 by 5 turns into 8. It is every simple Math.

I know, I will read in the big-media houses like BBC, AP News and others where it will say that his going for his 6th Term. These fellas who write that doesn’t care that he went a decade in power without any elections. That he suspended it and didn’t want to hold any. No, they are just making click-bait and not holding the President accountable. He should be counted for the first years of his presidency. Even if his achievements from those years are long forgotten and his killing of enemies those years. Are also long time buried and dead.

Never the less. Let me just reissue this short time. So, that everyone understands my equation and how I get to 8th Term for Museveni. This here should be the gist, but I am sad to say. The international media will say its 6th because they don’t know better.

Short Timeline:

1986-1991 First Term by seizing power/coup d’etat,

1991-1996 Second Term by suspending elections.

1996-2001 Third Term by First Election after the coup d’etat.

2001-2006 Fourth Term, Second Election. Abolishing Presidential Term Limits.

2006-2011 Fifth Term, Third Election – First Multi-Party Elections since the Coup d’etat.

2011-2016 Sixth Term – Fourth Election.

2016-2021 Seventh Term – Fifth Election  -Abolishing Presidential Age Limits.

2021-2026 Eight Term –Sixth Election

This is just my gist of it and how easily it can be calculated. Something, I find important, because all years should count. Not only the timeline from the election in 1996 until now. Than the same media houses should say he has ruled for 24 years, instead of 34. Why?

They are not counting it in the sense of terms, when they are accepting not to count the 10 years of suspended elections and coup d’etat. If your straight about, be straight forward and not glean in the middle.

Take the whole account, the whole time served and not just from the first election. That is just fair. This President has rigged elections and will rig the upcoming one in 2021 too. It is just a matter of levels and to what extent. Also, what sort of play he wants to do. He decides. His legacy is already tarnished and this election will not make it better.

His the soon, eight term president. Remember that. It is insane, but still true. Peace.

Rwanda: Nsabimana’s testimony doesn’t add up

There are always something shady going on. These sort of affairs that I dwell into here is easily a barrel filled with conspiracies. This being the affairs of the MRCD-UBUMWE, a rebellion out of former rebel groups going together to defeat the Presidency of Kagame and his Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). Clearly, when they have been able to take one of the faces of this rebellion. They will mock him, torture him and certainly do what they can to hurt his cause.

The Rwandan Authorities is doing the natural thing charging Major Callixte Nsabimana aka Sankara. That they are taking him to court and apprehending him, only makes sense. However, that they are peddling news about his testimony from Court. Which is refuted both by his allies within the militia forged in 2017 with armed rebels from FNL, FDLR, RRM and CNRD.

All of this makes everything so questionable. Yes, I understand that the authorities wants to undermine the efforts of the MRCD, as they want to overthrow Kagame in Kigali. However, the method of releasing these sorts of allegations are counterproductive. Especially, when it only creates diplomatic spats and statements. Which isn’t serving Zambia or Rwanda. It is only making Kigali looking foolish in the eyes of Lusaka.

Just take a look!

The Report from the Court:

The alleged crimes were committed when Nsabimana was the Spokesperson of the ‘National Liberation Forces (FLN)’, an armed terrorist organisation founded by the Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD), a political organisation founded by Paul Rusesabagina, among other members” (…) “When the trial reopened, Nsabimana, who was a self-proclaimed ‘Major’ in FLN accused Zambian President Edgar Lungu of allowing them space to operate in his country to overthrow the Rwandan government” (Edmund Kagire – ‘FLN’s Nsabimana Returns to Court, Alleges Zambian Support’ 13.07.2020, KT Press Rwanda).

MRCD Condemns the lies reported from the trial of Sankara:

The Government of Rwanda exerts all pressure in the form of physical and psychological torture against Major SANKARA to force him to confess at all costs the charges, to incriminate all those who wish to testify in favor of the accused. and to strive to sully the reputation of his political opponents whom he qualifies as terrorists in the pejorative sense! The MRCD – UBUMWE declares itself stunned by this relentlessness of the Rwandan courts which are also working to involve foreign friendly countries in this trial, in particular Zambia and its Head of State Edgar Lungu. The MRCD –UBUMWE takes this opportunity to protest loud and clear against these lies. There is no truth to these allegations at all” (MRCD – ‘CONDAMNATION DES MENSONGES DANS LE PROCÈS du Major Callixte NSABIMANA SANKARA’ 16.07.2020).

Zambia – Testimony not credible:

But Hon. Malanji said he was informed by President Kagame that the allegations are not credible as prior to his arrest, Nsabimana had travelled to five countries that do NOT include Zambia. Hon. Malanji said government will continue to investigate why Nsabimana chose to falsely mention President Edgar Lungu in his court testimony” (Mwebantu – ‘Zambia-Rwanda bilateral ties are sound, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joseph Malanji says’ 17.07.2020).

The reality here is clear. Nsabimana could tell this alleged co-conspirator story for various of reasons. That is to deflect from his own wrong-doings and to hope for a lesser sentence. However, that seems to backfire. When his own outfit, his own militia that he was participating in and defended refutes his testimony. Also, that the Zambian Authorities is responding in disregard to it.

That Lusaka is saying they are not part of this is not shocking. That is expected, no healthy government wants to support and help militias to overthrow regimes in other nations. Unless, they are hoping for a pay-off for the support with time. There seems to very few reasons for Zambia to want to get rid of Kagame. Unless, it would be a ego thing for Lungu. Which seems far-fetched, as Lungu has enough trouble at home to ever consider to cause issues elsewhere.

Another point I will make is that its just weird that this alleged connection is released and spread to the media from the Courts. That the testimony of Nsabimana is all across the continent and the State House of Zambia and Foreign Affairs are addressing it. While, the Rwandan counterparts are not speaking out on it. Like they are hurt that some alleged co-conspirators are willing to undermine Kigali. Which is just by all accounts, made up story and fiction. Seemingly to fit a narrative for the rebel and his cause.

That is why this doesn’t add up. Secondly, the attacks the MRCD have done reportedly on Rwandan soil have come from Burundi, where they crossed the Kibra Forrest in Cibitoka province into Nyungewe Forrest in Ruhengeri district. That is not some lay away base in Zambia, but more influxed and prepared from Burundi.

That’s why I have hard time believing this and yes, there are underlying scepticism from the get-go. Neither, the rebel, the militia major or the ones spreading the news is credible. What is making it even worse. Is that two separate parties, one being the supposed co-conspirator is denying it and the current leadership of militia, which the man who testifies comes from. That is all making it easy to wonder what’s the motives for spreading it in the first place, instead of believing in the allegations. There are enough red-flags for me to even digest it as facts. Peace.

Zambia: Let Diplomacy deal with Rwanda Issue (16.07.2020)