““In order to produce something you need four things; land which is a natural resource, labour which we have in plenty, capital money and entrepreneurship, the spectacles to see where the opportunity is and turn it into profit. You can’t have 68% of the homesteads (eating what they produce) and you think you’re an economist. You’re just a total failure. Infant mortality rate, how many children are dying when they are still young? Why are they dying? Because they have problems, mainly because of problems of having no money. What does it mean that 68% of the homesteads are outside the money economy? We have a few modern farmers who are part of the 32% and other entrepreneurs. Those will continue but let us wake up this 68%.” Museveni said” (URN – ‘68% of Ugandans are poor because of sleeping – Museveni’ 12.08.2019).
President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni have just ended his campaign and Wealth Creation Tour after a few months of steadily traveling across the Republic. In the final days of this he was a part of Investment Symposium 2019 in Arua.
What his saying isn’t new, he has used this message before, that the public is lazy, that they are not working hard enough. That they are not as hardworking and smart working like himself. Because, everyone should aim for being the photo-copy of the President. That is how you move ahead in the Republic.
That this is an insulting message from someone who had 33 years to make a difference. For someone who has had three decades to change the institutions, state owned enterprises and organisations run by state.
If the President really worked for this, strived to make the finances good and economy booming. He would have delivered that already. His party has reigned supreme, had the majority of Parliament, had a One-Party state for a decade as well. So, if someone should have the ability to get his vision through, it should have been him.
However, spoiler alert. His been working for himself and his wealth. Not the wealth of the public, his using the state as racket. That is why the state gets into debt, while himself and his family is running successful businesses. This is the mere reality, a reality he doesn’t touch. As well, as the open laisses faire approach, while only partial subsidizing whatever defunct enterprise that is in the wind.
President Museveni can put the blame on the public. If not he will blame the opposition, the lazy bureaucrats or anyone who doesn’t cut it. Because, that is something this man does. Right now he blames the majority of the public. However, he has had 33 years to wake them up and get into the economy. Still, its not like his succeeded or even tried, except with schemes that the Kitchen cabinet have earned funds from.
Therefore, maybe just maybe, Mr. President its your failure, its your lack of policy and will, which is the reason for the people sleepwalking to their inevitable death. You could have done something, but you didn’t, that’s the fact. Peace.
The Republic of Uganda’s economy is really reeling, it cannot be sustainable as the Government of Uganda is growing their debt like there is no tomorrow. While the fiscal growth is substantially lower than their rate of debt-service. As the growth of debt combined with lacking growth to substantiate the shortfall.
In addition, with the knowledge of added expenses, growing shortfall of funds in the upcoming Financial Year of 2019/20 and the election year of FY 2020/21. There will be more add-ons on the need for debt service, as the state already had loans outstanding, which the grace period ends and the debt-service begins on. Therefore, the amount of loans will transpire even more, than what is in this report. The endless cycle of debt and growth of it, is worrying, as well, as the state thinks that the magical wand of oil-money will clear this debt. Even as the first operational oil field and such has been postponed yet again.
“The total Government of Uganda external debt service by end of FY 2017/18 amounted to US$275.75 million, which was an increment of l29% compared to US$120.62 million in FY 2016/17” (…) “Debt service of Uganda’s external debt is on the rise and outstripping growth of the country’s income, currently at 6%. This poses risks for future debt repayments, especially as the country continues to acquire external debt at less concessional terms, especially to finance the oil development programme” (P: 6-7, 2019)
“It follows that as interest rates increase, the debt service obligations of Government also increases. The rise in external debt interest costs attests to the fact the government is increasingly contracting non-concessional debt, which will increase the repayment burden” (P: 24, 2019)
“However, this may not be the most likely scenario, as most projects have been discounted and some excluded in the macroeconomic framework. With the development of the NDP III, additional project and other pipeline project related to the oil developments and other infrastructure, will increase the financing requirement of government in the medium term. The inclusion of the above projects will re-classify Uganda from low risk of debt distress to moderate risk of debt distress or high risk if the export shocks materialize. A downgrade would have significant implications for the program with the IMF, where Uganda’s credit risk rating will worsen; implying that accessibility of nonconcessional financing will be limited. This will limit credit to Uganda to only concessional and grants financing.” (P: 28, 2019)
You don’t need to smart about it, as the state has bigger budgets with higher shortfall in the economy, combined with debt service and higher interest payments on the growing amount of loans. You know sooner or later, the economy will tank, as the fiscal responsibility is taken for granted and that fresh funds are lacking, because these are taken out of the economy to finance the payments of the old debts. Instead of generating growth and actually naturally grow the economy, by spending and investing as a state. The money is taken away to service debt, instead of building the state. That is what they are doing and at a alarming rate. Peace.
NEC1-19 – ‘REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ECONOMY ON THE STATE OF INDEBTEDNESS, GRANTS AND GUARANTEES’ June 2019, Parliament of Uganda
There are no short supplies in ghosts, they been roaming this earth with us earthlings for so long. But in the recent times, they are becoming more ever presence. They are turning up on front-pages, having more rumours about them than the Kardashians and they are eating more then the living.
These ghosts are in every part of lives, every part of government and can suddenly empty all sorts of state reserves. This being tenders for passport paper, for registration of siblings and even death certificates, you got to pay-off some ghosts. That is just the way things are.
These ghosts are hooking themselves up with tenders for constructions of government subsidized infrastructure projects, they are getting tenders for service agreements for any ministry or department. The money for these ghosts ends up in the Cabinet Secretaries hands or in Honourable man leading the show. However, the public will never touch these funds or see the project. They were just something beautiful on paper and promising for the place it would be built. But, that was just a hoax and mirage spread to the public.
They are ever growing these things and sometimes they even get hooked-up with funds from international and bilateral organizations to fill in the gap of funding. This being done in the pretext of supposed needed basic government functions or adjustment of public investment. This being ghost schoolbooks, ghost medicine and ghost vaccines. There are nothing that suddenly will never appear. If this being procurement papers, lack of tenders or even the existence of the companies selling the products. It will all vanish in front of our eyes. Like they never appeared in the first place.
The government might even order ghost cars, ghost roads, ghost railroads, ghost schools, ghost hospitals, ghost seedlings and ghost salaries. There are nothing that cannot be ghosted, even the most life-saving parts of government work. That supposed to save life and secure the citizens can be used as a trick to steal funds. This is just the order of the day.
There are stories from everywhere, it is not even shocking. I am just awaiting ghost toilet-paper, ghost water and ghost liquor to hit the front-pages, because they have forge some other document and ensure they are eating on others people’s dime. That is just the way things are, we are seeing it and millions, upon millions are eating every day. They smile, they grin, they campaign and kiss babies, but when they are in office; they will figure out a way to eat off our plate. That is just the way it is.
It isn’t perfect. It is just a life of ghosting, embezzling, white-collar crime and grand corruption, which we are bit to used too. It isn’t funny, this isn’t Caspar the Friendly Ghost. Neither Ghostbusters 1 or 2 or 3. No, its just our civil servants combined with elected officials taking us for ride. Peace.
Prof. Mthuli Ncube needs to really show the new dispensation and prove that the RTGS Dollar and Bond-Notes put together into the Zimbabwe Dollar really will save the economy. Because, the state is clearly failing on putting trust in the economy. The financial markets clearly has lack of trust or not feeling it. The Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), the second republic has to prove now, that they can fix what the Mugabe regime couldn’t fix in 2008.
Now, the Ministry of Finance, the Professor and Minister has to prove himself. That he can fix this, before the hyper-inflation hits the fan. Since, there is an giant issue. The inflation is already getting out of hand.
On the 15th April 2019, the inflation rate was at 66,8%. By the 15th May 2019 it had already become 75,86%, it continued to spiral and by 17th June it was at 97,85%. That all seems bad enough, as the progression and estimates has been broken every month. Now today on the 15th July 2019, it has hit 175,66%. That means since April the rate has nearly tripled and is now at the level of triple digit.
The prices must really skyrocket, the salaries will not be able to follow these sort of numbers. The state cannot manage to finance the state nor get the civil servants paid enough. Now we can anticipate the fuel, gas and electricity prices to go up. It got too, because, the economy is crashing. When the inflation get to this, you know something is up. The state is now getting the inflation at a ten-year high. They are surely trying to get back into the 2008 mojo.
Mthuli Ncube really have to start doing some miracles, some sort of divine god-like acts that turns water into wine. He needs to dig deep into the shelters of misbelief and find redemption. Because right now, the bridges are burning and the state needs.
Just to tell how bad it is, the estimates in the coming months is already at 200% in August and by mid-September to get to 251%. If these are true, than we know the drill. The lack of foreign exchange, prices out of control and state reserves emptied. The need for IMF, World Bank and Chinese Exim Bank to save the day. To stabilize the economy and revamp the economy.
The ZANU-PF clearly doesn’t know how to build trust or fix this. Since, they are doing the same thing all over and they have not launched the new currency yet. This shows how dire and destroyed the economy is. Peace.
Well, this last few days has been revealing, as the state have added more measures to try to wheel in the economy, but if it will stick boils down to one important factor. That important factor is if the public, the citizens and the stakeholders trust the government and their policies.
This is the key with relaunch of the ghost currency, the decade long missing Zimbabwe Dollar, the joining currency floated after Bond-Notes and RTGS Dollars. Which is supposed to save the economy and bring a new normal. In an economy where there are spiralling prices, lack of imports and also lack of trust in general; this is not directly strengthening that, but surely is a test.
If the Second Republic and the second regime under Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) is to stick around, they need to fix this. They cannot have another crash, have another big blow and weakening economy. There is already plenty of issues as is, last years taxes on mobile money and transactions took out lots of funds from the economy in direct taxations; these funds have been taken by the state and never returned to the market.
With this in mind, the state is in dire need of change, to build up self-esteem and hope for a better future. However, is the launch of the Zim Dollar, the right thing to do?
Is it about right to monopolize all buying of maize to the Grain Marketing Board, where the public is not allowed to sell or transport even a set amount of maize without licence or without authorities authorizing the transport of the maize?
Will these things make the economy stronger or will they have a negative effect like the RTGS taxes of last year?
I am thinking so, because there is very little evident of good hopes on the horizon, of possible unique changes or patterns, which the state will benefit in huge quotas from this. By all means the ZANU-PF will say it is making progress, that its all good, but not long ago there was fuel shortage and other things lacking because of lack of foreign exchange. The Reserve Bank and the other authorities better be prepared and have good advice for these changes. If they want to revive the currency, they better have a gold standard, a reach and not print money like there is no tomorrow. Since, it doesn’t take much to devalue a currency and also get hyper-inflation. Especially, when the society, the financial institutions and the whole market are sceptical about the whole deal.
The Zim Dollar and the GMB might be good ideas, might be brought to the market by good means, but will only bring more pain or suffering. As the farmers, the traders and the citizens will bear the costs, as the state is figuring out new ways to control and secure funding without adding investment or collateral for these investments. Certainly we can hope for otherwise, that the Finance Minister and everyone else involve has a well functioning plan.
However, do we really think so? Do the ZANU-PF deserve this trust and the good faith? Do they? Alternatively, are they just another military junta finding new ways of scheming for funds? Because, that wouldn’t shock anyone of us. If they are making new commissions or inquiry boards to settle old sins and hire cronies. That is what they do and not really making progress.
We can lie to ourselves and say it will all get better with these measures, but are we really certain? Do they really do all good? Does the ban of foreign currency really help? When the state functions are still taking US Dollars for functions and expecting foreigners to pay in US dollars. Do the RBZ and the Ministry really configure this or are they winging it?
There was one fella, who called the Zimbabwean economy an albatross; I think he was right, I really think he was right. By all accounts, there is little luck and little positive to find. We can joke around, mock and make a fuzz. However, the dire consequences are that teachers cannot food; the civil servants cannot pay for mortgages and so on. It is a dire need for change and for trust in the economy. Nevertheless, as long as the ZANU-PF is playing along, there will be questions. Many, unanswered, which is bringing no good. Even when the measure might have been made with grandest intent. Peace.