Dismantling the Ten-Point Program 2015 Edition – Uganda

This is my 2.0. It’s a 2015 Edition. I wrote a piece that I use a long time on and the books I had read to fit into prove how the Government of Uganda and the NRM-Regime had failed their marquee program. Their famous Ten-Point Program. I wrote a piece that I posted in 2014 with what we can call little older and scattered information. This here right now will be based on what has happen in 2015 and the situation right now economical and development that has happen in the recent year. The other one had far-far and old date material and reports. This here is fresh (for now) in two years’ time this here will also be old, but since this election season, I had to make regenerating this. Point by Point look that the situation and shortly discuss them. I know for the die-hard NRM and Musevenist. This is just pure hog-wash even if you can see the painting on the wall; you will still deflect the issues that are there. NRM-Regime has had the opportunity to make these changes and give Uganda and its citizens what it ought to have. What the opposition and civil society asks for and question the leadership; and regime about. Instead there are other reactions to this. But instead of me just writing small-talk let you read the findings.

Point 1: Restoration of Democracy:

The sole candidacy of YKM in the NRM proves that there are not democratic institutions YET; and the NRM Primaries have made Uganda famous for Pre-Ticket Ballot-Papers and stuffed ballot-boxes. Also with the sole candidates of Evelyn Anite and Sam Kutesa didn’t have competitors in their respectable voting districts these NRM primaries. So if you want to restore Democracy and you still lives by the possibilities of having election which is rigged and have single candidates, then it’s not really an election, but a sad exercise of necessity and not to get the once who supposed to represent the members of the NRM-Party. When the ruling party can’t act democratic and have free and fair elections, how can they make that happen in 2016? They still haven’t achieved this point. Proving this point that they haven’t achieved it is with the constantly detaining of opposition leaders and keeping them in house arrest, or even preventative arrests. Also using the POMA law to disorganize the Opposition parties and their campaigning while the UPF is steady on to destroy their work in the districts and fields. Throwing activists in jail without trial and letting them pay heavy bonds. This is not a look or proves that the system is still based on the NRM-Regime and their elite, even inner-party members has been jailed for supporting Amama Mbabazi instead of supporting Yoweri Museveni.

This point is not yet valid.

Point 2: Restoration of Security of all Persons in Uganda and their property

Reports today because a man supports wrong part of the NRM:
“Davis Akampurira lost his premolar tooth last night when he was beaten intensely after being kidnapped by “state operatives”. The reason given was that the buffoons had gathered intelligence of him being funded by Amama Mbabazi to fight the state and son of Minister Bright Rwamirama….Mwinempaka. We who sent Davis has told him to come independent” (Reported by Meta Moses, 02.11.2015).

The Fautima Zaina incident shows that the security of the people is not withhold in the country when the police manhandle her like they did. Also the Way the police carries themselves with tear-gas and shootings during the Western rallies of the FDC in October. And this has been thread that has kept going the entire calendar of 2015 and sure will happen until the election in February of 2016. So the security personnel and police is not securing peace for the people, but making fuzz and generating violence because the Opposition parties try to do their program in the country.

We have the all of sudden Police detaining Norman Thumuhimbise of the Jobless Brotherhood when he was taken by the police in the night in Kampala by the Flying Squad, without any court order or official paperwork just suddenly taken in August and after a few days he returned after family requests for his release.

Another example is also Vincent Kaggwa was taken by the Police in July this year and was released a few days later from an undisclosed location. He is one of the supporters of the Amama Mbabazi ticket at the time he was wearing a T-shirt with his name and face. Apparently the NRM Youth Leader had done enough to be detained and taken away with no court order for no reason at the time and released a few days later.

When it comes to the property it has been issues with that this year. The government has not withheld the level of trust between land and persons. One of this is the Palm Oil Plantation on the Island of Kalangala Land used for that purpose and to for the local farmers. The others main issues is the Amuru land grab in Apaa Village where the land is taken for hunting grounds and sold without the local agreement from central government. Also the Sugar Factory built by Kakira Sugar Works which is owned by the Madhvani Group who got allocation of 40, 000 hectares of land in the Western part of Amuru District.

This proves that in 2015 the security of all Ugandans is not yet there, especially if you’re not a part of the NRM-Regime or the NRM elite. Then you are free for all for the UPF and other organizations to take advantage of. Even NRM’s own can be taken and become felons because of their allegiance to somebody else than Museveni.

The land grabs proves that the property isn’t withhold to the people of the area, the bigness of the Kalangala and Amuru is massive, also with the government sale of land without consultation or consideration of the public and citizens, but seems that the only thing matters is the cash coming from corporations and investors from afar.

Another point that is also not valid.

Point 3: Consolidation of national unity and elimination of all sectarianism

Some historical background from the 1960:
“Britain’s goal in Uganda has been to establish a fully democratic parliamentary system which would fit the country for internal self-government in a short time. British Colonial Secretary Ian Macleod opened a new Legislative Council on Sept. 18, but the “parliament” was boycotted by Mutesa II, 34-year-old, Cambridge-educated Kabaka (king) of Buganda. Buganda has its own Lukiko (legislative council), which voted on Sept. 24 in favor of secession from Uganda. However, the Kabaka’s court has not yet approved the vote. Because the Kabaka’s government is by far the strongest political force in Uganda, it is in position to block development of a strong central government” (…)”A statement by Buganda authorities last Feb. 12 asserted that they had “always advocated a federal form of government for Uganda.” They distrusted the trend toward a “unitary form of government” which might endanger Buganda’s “traditional institutions.” The Kabaka, who is a god-king to 1.7 million of Uganda’s 5.8 million people, has been fighting a delaying action against changes which threaten to undermine his ancient feudal powers, Milton Obote, leader of the Uganda People’s Congress, most powerful of Uganda nationalist movements, has labeled the Kabaka’s court “reactionary.” (…)”Britain’s insistence that Uganda have a strong unitary government has given the Ankolo, Bunyoro and Toro tribes, as well as the Kabaka, an issue on which they are united—tribalism. Strong tribal allegiance and the resulting preference for federalism are not confined to Buganda. Tribal chiefs fear that the nationalist parties, such as Obote’s, will undermine their chiefdoms. But the smaller tribes are suspicious of the Kabaka and refuse to accept his leadership in any form” (Blumenfeld, 1960).

“The office of the Supreme Mufti has disassociated itself from what it has described as unprincipled call for unity by the leaders at Old Kampala. This is after the leadership of the Uganda Muslim Supreme Council organized a national unity prayer session slated for Friday at the Old Kampala mosque. However, the spokesperson of the Kibuli sect Sheikh Hassan Kirya has told journalists at a news conference held at Kibuli mosque that the spiritual status and integrity of the people behind this move is suspect especially with regard to their conduct towards fellow Muslims. Sheikh Kirya is instead asking that the council addresses the root cause of disunity” (Ageno, 2015).

Museveni said this to the Muslim community this year:
“Currently, Uganda’s life expectancy is 58 but the Sheikh has died at 83. Even at that age, he was still very strong, especially mentally. His death is a big blow to the Muslim community and his efforts to unite the Muslim community in Uganda” (…)”We have arrested many people who have been killing Muslim sheikhs and those who are still on the run shall be arrested” (…)”What divided us (Muslims) was lack of transparency in the custodianship of our property. But all we need is unity among Muslims” (Kafeero & Bwire, 2015).

Museveni said this year:
“Am glad that NRM is able to maintain peace supported by you people. The population of Uganda has gone up. I urge you to support and maintain this peace” (Statehouse, 2015).

““We used these venues to enlighten the people. Uganda had had the challenge of not knowing what to do within the political leadership,” adding that those ideological meetings took place in Bulambe and Kangave in Luwero district and at Bukatira in Nakaseke district.
Mr. Museveni who was accompanied by his wife, Mrs. Janet Museveni, noted that during the 1950s and 1960s, people were misled along sectarian considerations based mainly on religion and tribes. He was, however, pleased to remind the gathering that the country has now managed to foster stronger national unity because of the viable Government of the country. He used the occasion to introduce the Chairmen of the various organs that were in leadership during the struggle in the Luweero area. He also paid special tribute to Rev. Fr. Ssesanga who took the President’s mother from the area to Nairobi and ensured her security during the liberation war. Mr. Museveni paid tribute to his wife, Mrs. Janet Museveni, for looking after their children when he was actively engaged in the struggle. In the same vein, he thanked Mrs. Gertrude Njuba and Mrs. Olive Zizinga who took care of his meals at the critical time during the struggle” (Mediacentre, 2015).

And his NRM Party:
“Promotion of national unity and guarding against the resurgence of all forms of sectarianism. Implementing programs geared towards the socio-economic transformation of society, such as providing a healthy environment for industrialization and job creating through public and private investments. This is in line with the strategy of building an independent, integrated and self-sustaining national economy. However, the strategy is largely private sector led” (NRM, 2015).

The NRM has done more for the National Unity and has made an effort for the kingdoms to reconcile, even if there been issues like recent years like between the Baganda Kingdom and the Ankoli. Or the Bunyoro with their land and Tororo after the fall of Gadaffi which supposable gave less power to kingdom after this, then you have the fiefdom of Busoga which haven’t gotten much credit from the National Unity work. So the NRM has done something good here I got to confess, though I am sure that the Northerners feels left out after the institutions are stronger in Bunyoro, Baganda and Tororo, and not in Acholiland, Karamoja and so on. There are things to work on to continue to make a clear national Unity.

This one is a close achievement though the killings of Muslim clerics and the miss of certain areas of the country; half not passed and half verified point.

Point 4: Defense and Consolidation on National Independence

“The contractual fundamentals enshrined in the Ten-point Programme and promise of a fundamental change that was already exhibited in the discipline of the triumphant rag-tag NRA guerrilla fighters instilled an unprecedented sense of relief and confidence. Ugandans envisioned the end to state-orchestrated wanton murders; the end of the culture of political violence, torture, arbitrary arrests, the repressive modus operandi, and above all, the opportunity to freely elect and peacefully change their leadership. It was considered a dawn of a new era. The exceptions were the people of Northern Uganda region, where the defeated armies regrouped and waged an extended war led by Alice Lakwena and Joseph Kony. Internationally, Museveni’s conversion to neo-liberalism earned him Western acclaim of a ‘unique visionary, charismatic leader’ and primus inter pares of the ‘new breed’ of African leaders (Oloka-Onyango 2004; Kjaer 2004)” (Asiimwe, 2014).

“The eventual opening of political space was a protracted process whose landmark was the November 2004 Constitutional Court ruling against some sections of the Political Parties and Organisations Act (PPOA). The Court pinpointed the unconstitutional infringement of some PPOA sections on fundamental civil and political rights, for instance, freedom of association and assembly. With the opening, new political parties emerged. The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), a merger of the Parliamentary anti-third term group (PAFO) and Dr Kiiza Besigye’s Reform Agenda that contested the 2001 presidential elections, was the most prominent of the new parties. Traditional parties like DP and UPC considered FDC as a credible and trusted party, and forged a common working relationship with it under the G6 framework. Establishment of grassroots networks and infrastructure was not smooth for parties like the FDC. The NRM had an elaborate village to District level Local Council system that combined administrative functions with championing grassroots Movement interests. This was overseen by political appointees like Chief Administration Officials (CAO), security operatives and Movement cadres. Additionally, the police served the establishment, and para-military units like the Kalangala Action Plan were reminiscent of the old-time UPC’s National Security Agency (NASA). This elaborate apparatus aimed at weakening competing political parties through a combination of indirect and direct strategies like co-option, harassment, sabotage, repression or even elimination. Claims of sabotage were made, for instance, in Gulu, Hoima, Masindi and Kisoro (The New Vision 9 August 2005; The New Vision 27 June 2005; The New Vision 18 July 2005)” (Asiimwe, 2014).

The lands are peaceful but the oppression is making it less of peace as seen how they goes against the Opposition leaders and their parties. So there are issues that does destruct the picture of what the NRM-Regime really has done, because their hinges to power now destroy what they have built while trying to underscore their competitors in the political landscape.

This point is half made and half not.

Point 5: Laying a basis for building: an independent, integrated, self-sustaining national economy.
Economic levels:

From FY2006/2007 it was Domestic Debt and Outstanding(DoD) was US$1.47 billion. And in FY 2013/2014 had risen to US$4.3 billion (MTDS, P: 13, 2015).

Government expenditure is on an average to be 20.9% of the GDP for the FY 2014/2015. In the 2015/2016 it is 21.7% of the GDP. The main expenditure for the budget is the infrastructure projects like the upgrading of Entebbe International Airport, Hydro Power projects and Albertine Regional Airport. The total cost for the projects is US$7.0 Billion. There is set to be 5% target for the inflation rate and the exchange rate is set for 12.1% in FY 2015/2016 and average for 2.4% the rest of the years for the medium term (MTDS P: 17-18).

That the total debt-to-GDP from the current level of 28.6% by the end of June 2014, if the end of the time it might end up with 50% level by 2020. This is because of substantial projected increases the fiscal deficit. With the worst strategy the interest rate can go from 1.4% in June 2014 to become 4% in 2020 (MTDS, P: 24, 2015).

Point 5 is not valid. The scary numbers are the reason why!

Point 6: Restoration and improvement of social services and rehabilitation of the war-ravaged areas

(Republic of Uganda May 2015).
They have started and even officially started to loan money for the restoration together with the major national programmes like National Development Program II and Vision 2040.

So this point is not valid!

Point 7: Elimination of all forms of corruption in public life

Here are a few cases from the recent year that proves that elimination is far from the surface and eliminated with corruption in the public life. There is so many cases but here is a few!

Mukono-Katosi Road Scandal:
“A significant amount of evidence supports the view that the incidence of grand corruption in Uganda has increased over recent years. Recent cases involving the embezzlement of public funds suggest the effectiveness of state institutions in monitoring government programs is limited. Recent examples of cases of grand corruption include the fraudulent procurement of a contractor for the Mukono-Katosi road and subsequent advancement of UGX 24 billion to nonexistent contractor to kick-start the road construction in 2014; of UGX 205 billion through the national identity card system scam in 2011; and of UGX 58 billion lost in the OPM in 2012, among others” (Inspectorate of Government P: 33, 2014).

MTN-Uganda:
“The Anti-Corruption Court yesterday convicted six MTN staff after they were found guilty of illegally gaining access to the mobile money system and wired cash amounting to more than Shs3 billion to various money agent lines that they shared thereafter” (PCTech Magazine, 2015).

UWA:
“In November 2014, five officials of the Uganda Wildlife Authority were suspended after almost 1.5 tons of ivory worth more than $1 million vanished from a government store room. In response, the minister for tourism suspended the Uganda Wildlife Authority’s executive director, Andrew Seguya. But he returned to office just a few months later” (Athumani, 2015).

UNRA:
“A Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA) official was last Friday quizzed over billions of shillings on his personal account, yet his official salary was only Shs5m a month” (Kasozi, 2015).

Recent in Kampala:
“The last time men posing as immigration officials showed up at Wei Kun’s shoe store in the Ugandan capital of Kampala, the Chinese trader forked out $1,000 in bribes to prevent his business from being shuttered” (…)”Perspective traders must provide evidence of $100,000 in planned investment, language skills and obtain the necessary trade licenses _ or pay off the right people” (Canadian Press, 2015)

This point is far of chart that I have to say it super-un-valid!

Point 8: Settling the peasants that have been rendered landless by erroneous “development” projects or outright theft of their land through corruption.

Check again the Point number 2 since the answer is there on the land grabs and the issues it has, especially with the situation in Amuru and Adjumani districts with the allocation of land for Sugar Works Factory and hunting grounds in Apaa Village. Also with the land grab for the development project or building the Palm Oil plantations on Kalangala Island. The issue in Northern Uganda ends also up with those staying in the camps that Internally Displaced Persons are not getting a piece of land to settle down and get a livelihood after the long trial with droughts and wars in the area.

This one is too damn easy, not valid before the IDPs get a piece of land and not business men getting giant plots for their business and pleasure. As the Government of Uganda has to fix the issues of giving their citizens their land and plots; and also finding the place for development, but there is also the issue of listening to the Local Councils, Chief’s and MPs to find a significant way of doing it, instead of shuffling over them.

Not Valid!

Point 9: Encouraging co-operation with other African countries and defending the human and democratic rights of our long-suffering African brothers

In the recent year the UPDF the Ugandan army has been in the South Sudan, Central African Republic and Somalia. In the Central African Republic they are still hunting for the LRA on mandate from the UN and the same with the Army troops in Somalia in the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

The one in South Sudan:
“John Ken-Lukyamuzi, who is the leader of the opposition Conservative Party in the national parliament, further said the deployment of the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) in South Sudan was a violation of international law” (…)”The lawmaker further said there was no evidence indicating the official invitation of UPDF by South Sudan president Salva Kiir, saying president Museveni failed to provide the invitation letter to parliament when inquired to produce it. However, Uganda government on many occasions alleged that its troops were invited by president Salva Kiir (Sudan Tribue, 2015).

Medics abroad:
“Uganda plans to send more than 240 of its health workers to the Caribbean despite criticism and the threat of an aid cut” (…)”Officials have said the scheme is merely part of Uganda’s bilateral cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago, from which Uganda has also benefited – with aid such as oil and gas industry training and financial support for its police” (Al Jazeera, 2015).

Ugandan-Saudi Agreement:
“HUMAN rights activists from various civil society organisations have refuted the recently signed labour agreement between Uganda and Saudi Arabia to employ graduates as domestic workers, arguing that it is modern day slavery” (…)”“The government does not seem to be bothered about where these people are going to work, but rather to let go of them,” Ndifuna said” (Muhindo, 2015).
The military does certainly something positive abroad if they follow the international mandates from African Union and United Nations, but the ones they went in to without a mandate that was in South Sudan. In the midst of the year with the turmoil and demonstrations towards the third term in Burundi became part of the mediation team between CNDD-FDD and the opposition. The opposition felt that the NRM-Regime and their men had a loyalty to their friends in the government and not discuss in the matter towards a gentle agreement between the parts.

So parts of this point they actually do well, with the armies for the mandates, but the none mandates and how they have agreements to send people to other countries to earn quick money and not secure themselves. So it doesn’t seem they do it for generating Human Rights or Democratic values, more to gain money for the government.

Half Point is cleared and half point is not.

Point 10: Following an economic strategy of a mixed economy – I.E. Use of state and private sector as well as cooperatives in the development process

“Given the scale of investments required under NDPII, there is need to have close cooperation between the public and private sectors in form of public-private sector partnerships (PPP)” (…) “Government has already embarked on promoting and encouraging PPP in various forms for the smooth implementation of NDPII. Legislation towards formulating laws for PPPs is also in advanced stages. The forms that PPPs usually take include joint ventures between the Government and private sector entity/ies where both may contribute financial resources, Build, Operate and Transfer (BOT), Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT), Build, Own and Operate (BOO) and Concessions” (P: 153).

““The Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA) is the implementing agency for the planned KAMPALA JINJA TOLL EXPRESSWAY. It will link the capital with the important industrial area of Jinja. Past plans have been for four to six lanes for the 77-kilometre road. Cost estimates have also varied from USD 700 million to USD 1 billion. There are reports that the ministry of transport will be floating a USD 1 billion Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) tender and that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) will be the lead financial adviser. Construction could commence in 2015 with commissioning in 2020. COMESA has declared it to be a priority Project that is an important component of the Mombasa-Kampala – Kigali northern corridor” (APA, 2014).

“Uganda Registration services Bureau (URSB) has today entered into an MoU with National Social Security Fund (NSSF) to enable information/data sharing on companies registered with URSB and bio-data for NSSF members” (…)”The Partnership with NSSF isn’t the first for URSB, because earlier partnerships have already bore fruits. Together with KCCA and URA, URSB is running a TREP project, which has seen the organization register many business names in Kampala, and has now devised plans to roll out to the countryside beyond Kampala” (…)”Other Partnerships with UIA and Posta Uganda have seen URSB centers housed within the two institutions, a move that has eventually reduced congestion at the URSB head office and also saved peoples’ time and costs on transport to reach the URSB head office for registration services” (Minbane, 2015).

They have achieved this one, but at a price of exhilarating the prices for public building by having the Public-Private Partnerships which leads to higher levels, MoUs and contracts from constructions companies and the Government of Uganda.

This here is a valid point.

Afterthought:

Point 1: Not Valid.
Point 2: Not Valid.
Point 3: Half not passed and the other half passed.
Point 4: Half not passed and the other half passed.
Point 5: Not Valid.
Point 6: Not Valid.
Point 7: Not Valid.
Point 8: Not Valid.
Point 9: Half not passed and the other half passed.
Point 10: Valid Point.

Totally 2, 5 Points out of 10 in 29 years is not impressed! There is always easy to write visions, talk about wish to develop the organizations and country. NRM-Regime has had the time to build and rebuild the country. The NRM-Regime have had opportunities to deal with this program and achieve it, instead they have lost focus and turned into a crony elite who self-serves instead of serving the citizens. That is supposed to vital to any government to give services and reforms to build society to a better place. NRM-Regime has gone away from their core-principals. Therefore you can easily see that they haven’t tried hard to fulfil their Ten-Point Program. Peace!

PS: If this isn’t enough for you?

Read my old one:

Dismantling the Ten Point Program – (05.05.2014)

Reference:
Ageno, Catherine – ‘Supreme Mufti Kayongo rejects “Unity” Prayers’ (27.01.2015) link: http://kfm.co.ug/news/supreme-mufti-kayongo-rejects-unity-prayers.html

Africa Project Access (APA) – ‘Africa Project Newsletter: Issue 234’ (Nov. 2014) link: https://www.wko.at/Content.Node/service/aussenwirtschaft/NEWSLETTER-234-November-2014.pdf

Al Jazeera – ‘Uganda to send medics abroad despite aid-cut threat’ (16.03.2015) link: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/03/uganda-send-medics-aid-cut-threat-150316125448282.html

Asiimwe, Godfrey B –‘Of Fundamental Change and No Change: Pitfalls of Constitutionalism and Political Transformation in Uganda, 1995-2005 – Article in the Africa Development, Vol. XXXIX, No. 2, 2014, pp. 21 – 46 © Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa, 2014 (ISSN 0850-3907)

Athumani, Halima – ‘Corruption worsens an already devastating illegal wildlife trade in Uganda’ (10.07.2015) link: http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-07-10/corruption-worsens-already-devastating-illegal-wildlife-trade-uganda

Blumenfeld, F. (1960). Tribalism and nationalism in Africa. Editorial research reports 1960 (Vol. II). Washington, DC: CQ Press. Retrieved from http://library.cqpress.com/cqresearcher/cqresrre1960110200

Canadian Press – ‘Despite bribery and corruption Chinese retailers grow in Uganda’ (23.06.2015) link: http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2015/06/23/despite-bribery-and-corruption-chinese-retailers-grow-uganda#M7hQi3pkd1JUhqeC.99

Kafeero, Stephen & Bwire, John – ‘Museveni calls for Muslim unity’ (18.04.2015) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Museveni–calls–Muslim–unity/-/688334/2689182/-/y2hs43/-/index.html

Kasozi, Ephrahaim – ‘UNRA official quizzed over Shs1b on personal account’ (02.11.2015) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/UNRA-official-quizzed-over-Shs1b-on-personal-account/-/688334/2938914/-/xrpcno/-/index.html

Mediacentre – ‘President Commends Fighters’ Role During the 5-year Liberation Struggle’ (08.02.2015) link: http://www.mediacentre.go.ug/press-release/president-commends-fighters%E2%80%99-role-during-5-year-liberation-struggle#sthash.HaQo8OZK.dpuf

Minbane – ‘Press Release on signing of a MOU between the URSB and NSSF (28.08.2015) link: https://minbane.wordpress.com/2015/08/29/press-release-on-signing-of-a-mou-between-the-ursb-and-nssf-28-08-2015/

Muhindo, Clare – ‘Human rights activists contest Uganda-Saudi labour pact’ (14.07.2015) link: http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/670932-human-rights-activists-contest-uganda-saudi-labour-pact.html

NRM – ‘NRM Mission is to transform Uganda into a Modern Prosperous society’ (02.10.2015) link: https://www.nrm.ug/media/nrm-mission-transform-uganda-modern-prosperous-society

Inspectorate of Government (IG) & Economic Policy Research Center (EPRC): Tracking Corruption Trends in Uganda – Using data tracking mechanism – Annual Fourth Report 2014.

Statehouse – ‘President urges West Nile on maintaining peace, unity, and household income projects’ (20.07.2015) link: http://www.statehouse.go.ug/media/news/2015/07/20/president-urges-west-nile-maintaining-peace-unity-and-household-income-project

Sudan Tribune – ‘Ugandan lawmaker describes UPDF mission in South Sudan as illegal’ (10.04.2015) link: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article54577

Republic of Uganda/Directorate of Debt & Cash Management – Ministry of Financing, Planning & Economic Development: ‘Medium Term Debt Management Strategy’ (MTDS): 2015/2016 -2019/2020 (April 2015).

Republic of Uganda – Report of the Committee on National Economy on the proposal by Government to borrow SDR 34 Million (US 50, 2 Million) from the International Fund for Agricultural Development for Financing the Programme for Restoration of Livelihoods in Northern Uganda (MAY, 2015)

Republic of Uganda – ‘SECOND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2015/16 – 2019/20 (NDPII): “A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years”.

PCTech Magazine – ‘Former MTN Uganda Staff get 9 years’ jail for Mobile Money fraud’ (28.04.2015) link: http://pctechmag.com/2015/04/anti-corruption-court-convicts-six-mtn-staff-over-shs3b-fraud/

Ugandan National Development Plan II – Outtakes and Quotes from the Plan

SECOND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2015/16 – 2019/20 (NDPII):

“A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years”.

This here piece will be the important and special words and numbers from this report that has had a release date the same as budget for financial year 2015/2016. This is important to address to show what the draft of 3^rd March 2015 is saying. If the numbers has changed then the government should drop and show the world the updated NDPII. But that hasn’t surfaced anywhere. Therefore I will drop the numbers and quotes I do have. It will be a long piece. But this is a big plan with enormous sums of monies in play. So with that play you got show what the government really want to do. I have already showed the dream-piece or press release earlier this week. So this here will see if that has changed or not. The pages where the quotes are from are not direct pages because the page number is different in an pdf so the empty pages also get counted. Just to explain that.

Basic of the Plan:

“This National Development Plan (NDPII) is the second in a series of six 5-year Plans aimed at achieving Uganda Vision 2040” (…) “The Plan also seeks to leverage opportunities and honour obligations presented by emerging developments at the national, regional (East African Community (EAC), and the Africa Agenda 2063), and global levels (the Post 2015 Development Agenda)” (P: 12). “This Plan prioritizes investment in three key growth opportunities including Agriculture; Tourism; Minerals, Oil and Gas as well as two fundamentals: Infrastructure and Human Capital Development” (P: 13).

Certain information:

“The overall government budget deficit level was unstable over the three years, increasing from an overall balance including grants of 2.5 percent of GDP in 2011/12 to 3.4 percent in 2012/13 and to 5.0 percent in 2013/14” (…) “ (…) “Fiscal Deficit: The overall government budget deficit level was unstable over the three years, increasing from an overall balance including grants of 2.5 percent of GDP in 2011/12 to 3.4 percent in 2012/13 and to 5.0 percent in 2013/14.” (…) “Uganda‘s total debt stock rose from UGX11,234.9 billion in 2010/11 to UGX15,939.1 billion in 2012/13 (close to 30 percent of GDP). External debt in 2012/13 was UGX9,893.3 billion (USD3.761 billion). In 2012/13, the total stock of domestic debt stood at 10.4 percent of GDP and 15.8 percent of GDP for the total stock of External debt” (P. 30)

“The Public Debt-to-GDP ratio is currently (2013/14) at 26.14 percent and is projected to peak at about 42 percent in 2019/20, but will remain below the 2013/14 debt strategy threshold of 50 percent throughout the projection period. The debt is however still highly sensitive to non-concessional borrowing, given the current structure of external debt” (P: 32).

“Commercial Banking and Microfinance: As of April 2014, Uganda had 26 licensed commercial banks, with about 544 branches and 5.5 million accounts. The commercial banks hold about 80 percent of the total assets of the financial system and the NSSF holds almost the remaining 20 percent. Savings are still low despite measures to increase savings in the past which included: NSSF improving its return on savings; starting the financial literacy project; URBRA putting in place a framework to enable the informal sector to participate in formal saving schemes; and having SACCO‘s empowered to mobilize savings. SACCOs and MFIs are still experiencing weaknesses in regard to their sustainability, due to the low mobilization of savings from the public, partly due to the over dependence on Government through the Uganda Micro Finance Support Centre and also the fraudulent activities that are a vice to the people‘s savings” (P: 36). “Uganda‘s capital markets are characterized by under capitalization and limited investment opportunities. The Stock Market remains thin, with only 16 companies listed on the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE). Equity markets are poorly developed and only large and well established firms can realistically raise finance on equity markets” (P: 37).

Infrastructure:

“Generally, during the NDPI period the paved road stock increased at an average rate of 123km, lower than the targeted increase of 220km per year” (P: 42). “The rail infrastructure has not changed over the last 5 years. The current rail network comprises of long meter-gauge rail lines, running from the east to the west of the country. Its operations are limited to 640 km between Kampala-Malaba, Kampala–Port Bell, Kampala-Nalukolongo and Tororo-Gulu, while the rest of the network is defunct” (P: 42).

Water:

“Currently, only 2 percent of water is used for production, with only 1 percent of potential irrigable area, where 15,000Ha out of 3,030,000Ha is under formal irrigation. Access to water for livestock at present is estimated at 48.8 percent. The country is increasingly facing a major challenge of prolonged droughts and unexpected floods due to climatic change and variability and is predicted to be water stressed by 2025” (P: 44).

“Financing Health Services: The trend in allocation of funds to the health sector shows an average increase of 20 percent per annum in absolute terms over the past four years of HSSIP. However, the allocation to health as percentage of the total Government budget has reduced from 9.6 percent in 2003/2004 (AHSPR, 2013/14) to 8.6 percent in 2014/15 of the total Government budget much lower than the Abuja Declaration target of 15 percent. This decline has taken place in the midst of rising health care demand and costs due to high population growth” (P: 48-49).

Education:

“Pre-Primary Education: The net enrollment at pre-primary level stands at 10.1percent (EMIS 2013). The provision of pre-primary education continues to be dependent on NGOs, multilateral organizations, and the private sector. This limits access with high disparities between urban and rural areas and among different socio-economical levels” (P: 50).

“Primary Education: The implementation of UPE program since 1997 resulted to increased access from 2.5 million to 8.5 million in 2013. The Pupil/Book ratio has stagnated at an average of 4:1 from 2009 to 2013. The repetition rate reduced from 11.7percent in 2009 to 10.3percent in 2013” (P: 50).

“Secondary Education Sub-sector: The Student/Classroom Ratio (SCR) improved from 68:1 in 2009 to 57:1 in 2013 (EMIS 2013). In 2013, Government owned secondary schools were 1,019 (36 percent), private schools were 1,819 (64 percent). Enrolment in Government secondary schools is 669,225 (49 percent) and it is 693,514 (51 percent) in private schools” (P: 51).

“Higher Education: Total student enrolment in higher education increased by 26percent from 183,985 in 2010 to 232,612 in 2013. Universities continue to enrol the majority (67.3 percent) of post-secondary students (156,747) as of 2013. 60 percent of these are in Public Universities. The private providers cater for the remaining 40 percent” (P: 51).

Governance:

“Economic development and transformation cannot thrive if citizens and investors have no confidence in the rule of law and the justice system” (…) “Good governance provides a setting for the equitable distribution of benefits from economic growth. The Constitution requires that the State promotes balanced development for all regions of the country, between rural and urban areas. It also requires the State to take special measures to develop Uganda‘s least developed areas and to pay special attention to the problems of the marginalized” (P: 57). “The Government of Uganda has adopted the Zero Tolerance‖ to Corruption Policy (2009). The policy correctly recognizes that fighting corruption requires measures beyond legislation and sanctions against corruption. It also requires restoring public sector ethics and creating behavioural change” (P: 60). “However, international surveys, as well as nationally representative data indicate that corruption in Uganda remains a major problem. The East African Bribery Index (EABI, 2013) found that 82 percent of respondents in Uganda described the current level of corruption as high, while 10 percent perceived it to be medium (Transparency International, 2013)” (P: 61).

Oil and Minerals:

“Uganda is destined to benefit from the opportunities explored along the minerals, oil and gas development value chain by addressing a number of challenges and emerging issues involved in minerals and petroleum development” (…) “The petroleum sub-sector is challenged by: inadequate industry infrastructure to support upstream petroleum activities; excitement and high expectations from the general public; lack of skilled manpower, both in the public and the private sectors; inadequate financing; land acquisition for infrastructure development for oil prospecting; and low institutional preparedness; huge capital requirements and technical expertise needed for projects; inconsistent fuel supply leading to scarcity of petroleum products; and absence of a legal framework and associated technical capacity to regulate and minimize the attendant environmental risks” (P: 71).

Cooperatives:

“There are over 6,351 registered SACCOS with savings of over UGX 120 billion, total shareholding of over UGX 25 billion and loans of UGX 80 billion. Cooperatives have also been formed in other sectors of the economy. For example, 2 energy cooperatives are managing the distribution of energy, 10 housing cooperatives are at various stages of development” (P: 76).

Illiteracy:

“The country still faces high levels of illiteracy. According to UNHS 2009/10, 6.9 million Ugandans (5.5 million women & 1 .4 million men) aged 15 years and above are non-literate – unable to read, write and numerate with understanding” (P: 83).

Local Government:

“The financing for local governments has increased from UShs974 billion to over UShs2 trillion today” (…) “In general, LG staffing level is at 56 percent for the districts and 57 percent for the municipal councils – a state that has further constrained service delivery. Rapid urbanization characterized by an increase in urban centers from 28 in 1969 to more than 400 in 2013 (1 City, 22 Municipalities, 174 Town Councils and 207 Town Boards) has been without proper planning and facing declining resources. In addition, governance at LGs characterized by poor coordination between the technical and political leadership especially in newly created districts is hindering service delivery” (…) “This is mainly due to breakdown of social values, peoples‘ expectations of hand-outs from government and CSOs, mistrust of communities towards leaders due to persistent unfulfilled promises” (P: 84-85).

Development:

“Regional Commitments: Protocol on the establishment of the East African Community Monetary Union. Particularly; Article 2 (b) attain the macroeconomic convergence criteria in article 6 (2) and maintain the criteria for at least 3 consecutive years. The criteria include:

1. a) ceiling on headline inflation of 8 percent
2. b) a ceiling on fiscal deficit, including grants, of 3 percent of GDP
3. c) a ceiling on Gross Public Debt of 50 percent of GDP in Net Present Value terms; and
4. d) a reserve cover of 4.5 months of imports

The indicative convergence criteria are;

1. a) a ceiling on core inflation of percent
2. b) a ceiling on fiscal deficit, excluding grants, of 6 percent of GDP
3. c) A tax to GDP ratio of 25 percent” (P: 103).

Part III: Strategic Direction:

“The strategy highlights the key development outcomes expected under the NDPII, the interventions and resources required to achieve these outcomes. The strategy also provides a motivation for the sources of growth and the expected socio-economic outcomes” (P: 111). “The goal of this Plan is to attain middle income status by 2020” (P: 112). “Fiscal Expansion for Frontloading Infrastructure Investment: In order to realize the necessary public investment, government will harness concessional and semi-concessional financing and other development support facilities that are targeted to accelerate investment in infrastructure and human development, among others. Industrialization: To stimulate growth and employment, the country will promote value addition through agro-processing and mineral beneficiation as well as light manufacturing which have a higher multiplier effect on wealth creation. Fast Tracking Skills Development: In order to plug the current skills gap, government will establish five centers of excellence to rapidly build the necessary skills required in the key priority areas. Export Oriented Growth: Uganda‘s strategic location at the heart of East Africa makes it well placed to exploit the regional market. The region is increasingly becoming a fertile ground for small scale exporters, diversifying the export market and adding value to traditional export commodities. A Quasi-Market Approach: A Quasi-Market approach will be pursued in order to increase efficiency of the public sector and competitiveness of the private sector. With this approach Government will invest in key strategic infrastructure in order to remove the barriers of entry and increase private sector participation in the key growth areas” (P: 114).

“Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: Uganda will implement policies aimed at accelerating a rapid decline in fertility and ensure the resulting surplus labour force is well educated, skilled, healthy and economically engaged in order to reap the demographic dividend. Urbanization: Uganda will implement a tripartite strategic policy aimed at accelerating planned and controlled urbanization, while ensuring the critical link between urbanization and modernization of agriculture where the urbanizing community frees land for commercial agriculture as well as create a market for the increased output and quality of agro products. Strengthening Governance: The key development results cannot be achieved without the necessary enabling environment. Meeting good governance principles which include: constitutional democracy; protection of human rights; rule of law; free and fair political and electoral processes; transparency and accountability. Integrating Key Cross-Cutting Issues into Programmes and Projects: The key cross-cutting issues of; Gender, HIV/AIDS, environment, nutrition, climate change, human rights, social protection, child welfare among others will be mainstreamed in the relevant programmes and projects during the implementation of the Plan” (P: 115).

Agriculture NDPII:

“For this Plan period, focus is placed on investing in the following agricultural enterprises along the value chain: Cotton, Coffee, Tea, Maize, Rice, Cassava, Beans, Fish, Beef, Milk, Citrus and Bananas. These enterprises were selected for a number of reasons including, high potential for food security (maize, beans, Cassava, Bananas); high contribution to export earnings (e.g. Maize – USD 21 million in 2005; coffee -USD 388 million in FY 2007/08; fish – USD 143 million at its peak; tea – USD 56 million in 2007)” (P: 120). “During NDPII the necessary institutional changes should be made so that a clear strategy for agro-processing can be developed and implemented. This should enable proposals for locating value addition facilities in the proposed zones” (P: 121).

Tourism NDPII:

“The NDPII has prioritized investment in strategic tourism supportive infrastructure (expansion of Entebbe International Airport, construction of Kabale Airport in Hoima, upgrading of strategic airfields, construction and maintenance of strategic tourism roads, as well as, investing in water transport to support tourism activities” (P: 122).

Minerals, Oils and Gas NDPII:

“The pumping of an estimated reserve of 3.5 billion barrels of oil, expected to start by 2017/18, portends great benefits for transport, energy, road infrastructure and public revenue” (…) “In the first year of implementation of the NDPII, a mineral development master plan containing the Country Mining Vision will be developed to implement the African Mining Vision. The Vision will clearly provide the detailed strategic direction and guidance for the mining, oil and gas during the NDP period and beyond” (P: 124-125).

Transport:

“Standard Gauge Railway System” (…) “A good railway system would effectively link Uganda to other countries within the East African region and to overseas. This is key to exporting, and importing for manufacturing and services at affordable/competitive rates via connections to Djibouti and Mombasa if we are to achieve the Plan targets” (P: 126). “Strategic Roads” (…)“For this Plan period, 1,500KM of gravel roads will be upgraded to tarmac, 700KM of old paved roads will be rehabilitated and 2,500KM of paved roads and 10,000KMs of unpaved roads will be maintenance” (P: 128) (…) “Energy Infrastructure: Government will invest in the necessary infrastructure to facilitate the exploitation of the abundant renewable energy sources including hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear, so as to increase power generation capacity from 825MW in 2012 to 2,500MW in 2020 and prepare for achievement of the required 41,738 Mega Watts by year 2040” (P: 130).  “Oil and Gas: The pumping of this oil and gas is expected to start by 2017/18” (…) “The Government will commence construction of a 22-inch diameter, 1,300Km long oil pipeline from Hoima via Lokichar to Lamu in Kenya. This is in addition to the oil refinery that is to be constructed at Kabaale in Hoima to process petroleum and other products for the domestic and international market” (P: 131). ICT: “Over the Plan period, government will prioritize investment in the following ICT infrastructure: extension of the National Backbone Infrastructure (NBI) to cover most of the country so as to increase penetration of communication services; finalise the migration from analogue to digital terrestrial broadcasting” (P: 132). Human Capital Development: “the Plan will focus on providing early childhood survival and full cognitive development. Efforts will be geared at: reducing incidences of morbidity and mortality; scaling up critical nutrition interventions outcomes especially for children below 5-years; and implementation of Early Childhood Development (ECD)” (P: 134). “A skills development programme will be designed and tailored to the Industrial strategy, production zones and urban corridor locations that will be planned during NDPII. Provisions will be made for skills training on location at infrastructure construction sites to give unemployed young Ugandans rather than imported labour the maximum chance of personal development”(P: 135).

Overall Growth:

“The NDPII assumes that all the interventions outlined in the strategic direction will be implemented during the period 2015/16-2019/20. In particular, it is assumed that the following will be realized during the NDPII period: (i) increasing productivity of all sectors, (ii) pursuing value addition especially for the agro-processing and mineral products, (iii) creating an environment where industrialization can flourish, and; (iv) improving social delivery of services” (P: 139).

Fiscal Strategy:

“The fiscal strategy of the NDPII is underpinned by the need to maintain macroeconomic stability and a quest to competitively position Uganda to fully benefit from the East African Common Market” (P: 141). ”The focus of addressing the infrastructure deficit while consolidating the gains in human capital development remains a key priority for the NDPII. In summary, being that infrastructure has been prioritized; the fiscal deficit will mainly be driven by the additional resources required for infrastructure and human capital development” (P: 142).

Expenditure Strategy:

“The overall average spending is expected to be 21.1 percent of GDP with the peak of 22 percent of GDP expected in 2016/17, and consolidation of spending by the end of the Plan period” (P: 142).

Revenue Development:

“On the revenue outlook, the NDPII envisages that there will be some improvement in domestic revenue mobilization (excluding oil revenues). These gains will arise from minimizing the use of non-standard VAT tax exemptions which have compromised the effectiveness of tax collection. These exemptions are estimated to reduce government revenue by 1 percent of GDP” (P: 144). “Grants under the NDPII period are expected to decline due to a combination of factors including: (i) austerity measures pursued in donor countries (ii) continued positive growth perception of donors about Uganda‘s recent developments and therefore not being eligible for certain grants. As a result grants are expected to decline further to 0.5 percent by the end of 2020” (P: 145).

Monetary Policy Stance and inflation:

“The Bank of Uganda (BOU) has been implementing monetary policy under an Inflation Targeting Lite (ITL) monetary policy framework since July 2011” (…) “BOU will continue to implement a monetary policy framework that will ensure price stability and at the same time conducive in attaining economic growth over the NDPII period. The inflation outlook will be largely dependent on changes in domestic food prices, exchange rate and international commodity prices. Over the NDPII period, the objective is to keep annual inflation low and stable assuming no major shocks to the economy” (…) “The foreign exchange market: The import content of infrastructure investment in Uganda is estimated to be between 67 percent and 80 percent, but over 80 percent of the key infrastructure projects will be financed from external sources” (…) “Domestic liquidity and private sector credit: The impact of public investment on domestic liquidity will be limited due to the high import content of the infrastructure projects. Nonetheless, a higher fiscal deficit and foreign exchange purchases by BOU will create a liquidity injection that must be managed appropriately to maintain low and stable inflation and healthy levels of private sector credit” (…) “Credit rating: There is a risk that higher fiscal deficits over the medium term will reduce confidence in Uganda‘s public finances. This could lead to a downgrading of the country‘s credit rating and raise interest costs” (P: 149-150).

Concessional External loans:  

“Concessional loans are defined as external loans contracted with a grant element of more than 35 percent mainly sourced from the bilateral and multilateral donors. Over the years these loans have cushioned Uganda to finance a moderate deficit. In 2014/15, concessional loans were projected to contribute up to 2.3 percent of GDP” (…) “Less than 50 percent of the financing needs will be met through concessional borrowing in 2013/14. Given this background, the NDPII relies on conservative estimates for concessional borrowing. It is expected that over the NDPII period concessional loans will remain a key source of financing in 2015/16 and 2016/17 and decline to 1 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2019/20 as the financing needs also decline” (P: 151-152).

Semi-Concessional External Loans:

“Financing from semi-concessional loans especially for large infrastructure projects including Karuma and Isimba dams and the SGR are expected to total USD 5.3 billion during the period 2015-20” (…) “Under the NDPII Government will continue to source these types of loans given their favorable terms compared to commercial loans” (P: 152).

Non-Concessional External Borrowing

“It is imperative that Government also starts exploring other options especially to finance large infrastructure projects whose economic returns may not be viable in the short run but with enormous social benefits. Uganda is currently rated at B by Fitch and Standard and Poors rating agencies” (P: 152).

Domestic Borrowing:

“Government started issuing securities for fiscal purposes in the year 2012/13 raising about UGX650bn (1.2 percent of GDP)” (…) “Given these challenges, the NDPII would attempt to limit domestic borrowing to current levels especially as the infrastructure projects get completed. The level of domestic debt would be limited to the range of 1.5-3 percent if domestic debt is to be contained within sustainable levels” (P: 153).

Public Private Partnership:

“Given the scale of investments required under NDPII, there is need to have close cooperation between the public and private sectors in form of public-private sector partnerships (PPP)” (…) “Government has already embarked on promoting and encouraging PPP in various forms for the smooth implementation of NDPII. Legislation towards formulating laws for PPPs is also in advanced stages. The forms that PPPs usually take include joint ventures between the Government and private sector entity/ies where both may contribute financial resources, Build, Operate and Transfer (BOT), Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT), Build, Own and Operate (BOO) and Concessions” (P: 153).

Financing debt:

“Under this financing strategy, all the solvency and liquidity external debt-burden indicators remained well below their policy-dependent thresholds throughout the projection period. The public gross national debt would peak at 42 percent of GDP in 2019/20 while the NPV is expected to peak at about 40 percent of GDP” (P: 154-155).

Afterthought:

This must be an eye-opener. It has already been a long article. I could have written my opinion on the matters and the whole NDPII. But I think the quotes speak for themselves. That if these don’t give you any indication on how the Government of Uganda hopes it turns out. They also told in this draft that certain aspects of the NDPI they didn’t succeed so if they don’t do it here. It shouldn’t be like a lightning strike from a clear sky. More like expected, this should be hard to achieve it’s a broad and general plan that has visions of all aspects of society from narrow industrial projects to infrastructure. That gives a lot of power and also a framework which is big. Therefore they need massive funding for this and already seen in other documents and in this that the scale of debt and loans is getting higher while the donor countries are offering less to the state coffers. Meanwhile the economy isn’t sustainably growing. While the Oil and Gas might cover for this that will still to be seen in 2017/2018 when the monies are expecting to recover. In the meanwhile the economy will drive itself on loans and hope for other funding. It’s already up to 40% of all budget concerns which is alarming. It should be, even if progression and analyzes say it can go up to 50% before the debt rate is too high. Even though that makes sense from an economic standpoint it’s still frightening to see the figures on how it has risen. And I wonder does the government have a constructive plan to pay this back to its creditors? Because that doesn’t comply here or anywhere else I have seen which is a little bit frightening. Peace.