Ethiopia: Abiy is wrecking the economy [and the nation as well]

Ratings agency S&P Global cut Ethiopia’s sovereign rating to ‘CCC+’ from ‘B-‘ on Friday, citing heightened political instability and delays to debt restructuring” (Street Insider – ‘S&P pushes Ethiopia’s ratings into junk territory on delayed debt restructuring’ 24.09.2021).

It’s been years upon year where the financial forecasts and the economy of Addis Ababa have been steaming ahead. The one republic and nation in the Horn of Africa, which has always looked golden. There haven’t been a year or a report, which haven’t been positive. So, within a three year span in power, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and his allies in the Prosperity Party is destroying this.

The Prime Minister has already caused a famine, weaponized humanitarian operations in the republic and ordered a war to consolidate all power. The PM have ordered his political enemies to their death or detained. There is no middle-ground and this sort of society isn’t bringing prosperity or stability. Anyone can at any time become an enemy and depending on how paranoid the PM is. If he gets total paranoia. The closest allies and leaders might end up like the enemies who are behind bars already.

This is combination of the freezing accounts of Tigrayan citizens, closure of businesses and profiling is also causing damage of the economy. As much as the state is becoming sanctioned and targeted by the United States of America. There is no wiggle-room and trust in the ruling regime.

The Prime Minister is now destroying the economy to a level in which investments have gone from the graded as B- which can be described as “highly speculative”. The PM has moved the Republic to grade of the CCC , which means that the economy is “extremely speculative”. For an investor this means there is a higher risk for defaulting on loans and therefore, deemed as “junk”. This means the state isn’t trustworthy and it is huge risk to invest there.That is not the sort of financial foresight any head of state wants for their republic. However, that is what Abiy has succeeded in doing.

The PM has now officially gone to the lowest level, However, the PM and PP has already depleted and destroyed the prospects of it’s economy with this internal war. It is costly to import weapons, military technology and ammunition. The costs are not only on the battlefield, but on the spreadsheet. This costs money and empty coffers. At one point the bank-accounts are scrapped and the state doesn’t have enough revenue to cover for re-occurring debt.

Abiy has to go to creditors and get the debt restructured. He has to prove he can make a plan to fix the budget and add revenue to the state. Because, at the moment the economy is bleeding. Just like the PM is doing in several of the state’s as well. There is so many people who are struggling in Oromia, Amhara, Afar and in Tigray. There are starvation, lack of basic commodities, medicines and water/electricity. Therefore, citizens are already struggling because of the war and now the state will struggle financially as well.

It is not like the PM has lots of friends to cover his debts and restructuring of it. This will not be easier when the government is sanctioned and that will make it even worse. The PM and PP has failed the republic and the nation itself. Not only the selfish war for own personal power, but risking so many lives to gain that. Therefore, long after Abiy is out of power. These efforts and usage of power will haunt the halls of power. Because, the state will has to rebuild and restructure itself to be a viable entity, which it clearly isn’t at this point. That is why it’s deemed as “junk” and the violations of human rights in combination with crimes against humanity will have to be addressed as well. It is all connected and the PM cannot run away from all the pain he has ordered on his citizens. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Government of the National Regional State of Tigray – Press Statement on Humanitarian aid trucks to Tigray (22.09.2021)

Ethiopia: The Global Society of Tigray Scholars (GSTS) – Open Letter to Congresswoman Karen Bass (19.09.2021)

Ethiopia: Catholic Eparchy Adigrat-Tigray – Bishop’s Urgent Call for Allowing Humanitarian Resources Access and Mobilize Humanitarian Aid Resources, and for Peaceful Intervention to End the War (03.09.2021)

Ethiopia: The Government of the National Regional State of Tigrai – Statement by the Governmetn of Tigray on President Biden’s Executive Order on the crisis in Ethiopia (18.09.2021)

National Council of Eritrean Americans (NCEA-East): An ill-advised White House action tries to throw terrorist group a lifeline (17.09.2021)

Ethiopia: Biden’s executive order strikes at the heart of Abiy’s regime

Today’s revelation of Executive Order from the U.S. President Joe Biden is a clear message. The U.S. Treasury Department have until now only sanctioned and targeted one Eritrean General. Now, they are furthering the scope, and this will hit the Prosperity Party hard and all of its allies. This means that the U.S. is sanctioning not only one man, but the whole system who is co-operating and ensuring the warfare in Ethiopia.

These sanctions target directly anyone who has been involved or participated in the conflict since 1st November 2020. All military leaders, civil leadership and any entity who has participated in it. That is how broad this is and it means all the parts of the Tripartite Alliance is now hit by this.

What this order does is clearly making it illegal to interact, trade or even co-operate with the leadership, government and armies, which is participating in the conflict. That is a harsh and brutal sanction. It has taken months to happen but shows what sort of measures the Biden Administration takes.

For Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki this must be a hard blow. Especially for Abiy who was for a short time a darling of the West and now the biggest power of that has sanctioned him. President Afewerki isn’t new to this, but his results have come home to roost. There is no denying in that.

These sanctions will cost and any foreign power conspiring with these forces will now be in trouble with U.S. Treasury and in general. Because, this will stifle their operations and possibly close some avenues. As the companies, the exporters and the ones selling military equipment to the conflict. Don’t want to have trouble with Washington D.C. or the Biden Administration in general.

If there is ever a diplomatic blow or a twist that hurts someone. This is the biggest defeat for any state at this moment. When the United States sanctions you. That means businesses will be frozen, accounts will be closed, and everyone involved will be touched by this. Not that the leadership of Addis Ababa or Asmara is visiting the United States anytime soon. Still, this will affect their movement and their possibilities. This is practically making both parties a pariah state and other nations might follow suit. The European Union or others might do the same thing.

That’s why this is the biggest hurdle and shows that paying expensive lobbyist in America hasn’t paid off for Abiy. He has wasted public funds and used PR with no luck. The tides have turned and in the end. The conflict and the reporting on it has lost ground. His maybe able to trick his followers and the ones in association with him. However, the US is not being an ally in this. That says it all and there will be outrage from both Ethiopia and Eritrea. They have already targeted US envoys and others(!). These voices will grow even stronger.

This is the most powerful statement the US President could have, because the UN Security Council would be blocked by the Russians or the Chinese in this matter. Therefore, the US President did what he could do and now the ball is in the court of Abiy and Afewerki. Expect their ministries to write scathing remarks and certainly not hold back. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church Archdioceses Headquarter – Main Office in North America – Press Statement (16.09.2021)

Opinion: You know something is wrong when Asmara and Addis sends similar memo’s to the world

The prolonged “Law Enforcement Operation” or “Training Exercise” in Tigray region is really showing the sinister part of the ruling regimes in Ethiopia and in Eritrea. They are both working together in a tripartite alliance. Where the armies of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Amhara militias working endlessly to end Tigray Defence Force (TDF). That has been a mission and goal since early November 2020.

Now we are in September 2021 and their messages are still getting across. Where both Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and his Prosperity Party is promising “liberty, freedom and saving the nation from terrorists”. While his alliance and allies are starving one part of the Republic. They are targeting the ethnic group and even closing their businesses an-mass. There is no end of the oppression and targeting the possible dissidents in the Republic. Any use of the state is only for the war-effort and to silence the people who dares to challenge the current dear leader.

That’s why it’s striking that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Shabait) actually sounds like Amhara Communications, Ethiopian News Agency (ENA) and even Fana Broadcasting Company. They are copying each other and the script is now the same. There is no difference between the reasoning or the rhetoric. That should be evident and shows how these are in cahoots to end and annihilate Tigrayans. While they dismiss any report or article, which isn’t following the propaganda of the state.

Shabait dropped a statement called: “48 HRC Session – Item two: Enhanced Interactive Dialogue on the Situation of human rights in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia; 13 September 2021” (Shabait, 14.09.2021).

If you have followed Ethiopian government friendly media and government accounts on social media over the last few months. It was like reading photo-copy and the same songs. They are copying the verses and even the hooks. There is no difference and even the tone is the same.

When Shabait states: “It is important to reiterate again that the OHCHR does not remain ambivalent on the misguided action that has emboldened the TPLF clique to resort to military adventures as well as on the real threats it continues to pose to the national security of Ethiopia as well as Eritrea. It is essential for the OHCHR to recognize the fact that the defunct TPLF clique constitutes the main cause and sole culprit in the crisis situation” (Shabait, 14.09.2021).

This could have been published on any of the mentioned sites or accounts. I have seen similar attacks on the UN organization and other foreign entities reporting within Tigray region. They are just the one who comes with reports and states how the humanitarian aid is delivered there. The OHCHR is impartial and independent of all actors in the conflict. Still, Shabait is sounding like the Ethiopian counterparts and comes with no evidence like it usually does. Always massive claims, but nothing substantial to prove it. It is also striking that the defunct TPLF clique is able to stagnate over three armies and all of it’s military expertize since November 2020.

Shabait continues: “The enhanced interactive dialogue on the Tigray Region of Ethiopia under discussion thus remains unfair; undermining the responsibility of sovereign Governments to take appropriate deterrent action while appeasing the TPLF criminal clique. This practice will corrode the inherent right to self-defense of sovereign nations; the common understanding on the constitutional duty of governments to mitigate imminent threats to their national security, and the need to fight terrorism wherever and whenever they occur. Above all, it perpetuates terrorism and anarchy while undermining the capabilities and obligations of sovereign states to maintain and safeguard the rule of law” (Shabait, 14.09.2021).

It is rich of a interfering nation on another’s behalf talking of “self-defense” of “sovereign nation”. When they are embattled and directly participating in warfare in Ethiopia. It is not like this is Eritrea’s conflict. They are partaking it and on behalf of Addis Ababa. The whole peace-agreement between Ethiopia-Eritrea seems more like a war-pact. Since the minutes and the agreement itself haven’t become public. Therefore, the gentlemen who leads these nations knows perfectly well their deal and it seemed to a quest to get rid of an common enemy. They are both wanting to consolidate and get rid of TPLF. That’s why they were willing and abide by the principal of making them the “evil” one. The TPLF have a past history, which it should answer too. However, in this conflict they are the victim together with the population of the Tigray region. No matter how Shabait is trying to shift blame here.

Shabait finishes with: “In conclusion, it is unacceptable that the penholders of the resolution that led to this interactive dialogue continue to depend on a protracted disinformation campaigns aiming at scapegoating Eritrea and covering up the essence of the crisis and the crimes committed by the defunct TPLF clique” (Shabait, 14.09.2021).

The Eritrean is saying it’s disinformation from others, as it does and never accepts any sort of reporting, which isn’t in favour of Asmara. That’s why we know they are hurt and distorted about the UN resolution. However, the Ethiopian and Eritrean allies would have preferred it to be controlled by them and their teams in the UN. That’s why they are disappointed, as the Addis Ababa have been a favourable destination and a place in good graces for so long. Now that is gone and the pariah state is getting close. Asmara have been this forever, but Addis haven’t had the same issue.

This is why Eritrea is attempting to save their ally. That is very clear. Everything is on the enemy Tigray Defence Force and not on the Tripartite Alliance. Even when they had the brigades, the ammunition and the air-strikes over the Tigray region for months. When the tripartite alliance could use all means to control and invade the region. There been no lack of crimes against humanity and the Shabait will pin that on TPLF. Because, it is not like they would say they did that themselves. Even if it would be weird of the TDF or the TPLF to attack their own and massacre own people to strive in the conflict. That is what Shabait is implying and that’s ridiculous. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Government of the National Regional State of Tigray letter to UNHCR Regional Representative Akpovo – Subject: Approval of Request Meeting (14.09.2021)