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Archive for the category “Agriculture”

Amuru Land Grab – Apaa Village Evictions: A long process of failure from the state!

That the Northern Uganda have been in deep end of the stick in many eyes is evident, by how lax the state has been to take care of their needs and their rights. That can now be proven by the forceful evictions from land in Apaa Village in Amuru District/Adjumani District. Where the previously have been attempts to make a giant farm for an investor called Bruce Martin and also become sugar cane plantations and factory for Kakira Sugar Factory owned by the Madhvani Group, this goes all the way back to 2006. Therefore, the plans to evict these people has been slow process from the state.

Now in 2018, the Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) have evicted dozens upon dozens of the local residents from their lands. As the purge on the village and the area continues, this has been in the making, but the ones losing their lands get nothing, but lose their homes and their livelihoods at the same time. The government authorities have torched the houses and left nothing behind, as they are continuing to evict people. Their lives are no meaningless, as they have to flee their land and are living on the United Nations Compound in Gulu, while awaiting their future, as the state, UWA and the Uganda People’s Defence Force have been evicting them over the last two months. Surely, the hurt is felt and real.

Who can wonder if the state is finalizing the agreement with Madhvani Group to deliver his second sugar factory and also sugar plantation in the area or they are making a game drive from Bruce Martin. However, this is still grabbing the land without any forewarning and also taking their livelihoods without any compensation for the hurt.

The District Land Board and Area Land Board cannot been informed or care to inform the people, as the army and UWA have been busy evicting people with force. They are just pawns on the chess-set, and the authorities in Kampala let it happen. The leadership from afar are accepting it and have gazetted the land and taken the land. Therefore, the people who has settled in Apaa have to flee or be evicted from the land, without any justice or law helping them out. No compensation and nothing left for them.

This sort of play has to stop; I am sure the State House is fully aware and let it happen, as they are getting their cut of the transaction of the land for whatever purposes it has. Its been planned for years, but doesn’t make it better, when they could have had solutions back-in-the-day as the government knew this would come. They were already in talks with both Kakira and with Martin. They knew perfectly well, what was up. There is even a third scenario where the land is sold to someone else named Linton Brimblecombe.

Clearly someone forgot the memo and left it stranded. They just evicting people in the favour of one lucky bastard who capture all lands, without paying the needed ones who was actually living their and done so for generations. This is a violation of the trust between the citizens and the government. Because someone accepted the trade of the land people where living on and had rights too.

The Apaa village and Apaa community deserves better, all of the Acholi deserves better. They are being misused and taken for granted by the government. They are just pawns on the chess-set. No value, the first one in the battle-line to take out so the ones of value can be put into play. That is how it looks from the outside.

This have been planned for decades and now it happens.

Amuru Land Grab: What is ours, is OURS; What is their’s, is OURS; and Whatever is your’s, is still OURS. Peace.

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The simple reason for the rising prices of UNGA!

If you wonder why suddenly the prices are running high for the UNGA again in Kenya. That is because the state has added taxes, they are trying to collect more money again. This is happening because its months since the elections and the subsidized UNGA is history. Therefore, expect rising prices, the maize and milk cartels want their profits. If they happen to in the pocket of the government at the same time. Is just convenient, even some of the companies earning on the sky-rocketing prices is the President himself and his own companies. I am sure the DP also owns connected businesses that could eat of the this plate too. While the ordinary and poor population will struggle to have ends meet as the government are taxing them even more.

Added Taxes:

Poor households would be more exposed in the amendments with sweeping implications on many sectors, as the State seeks to raise Sh1.75 trillion in the next financial year. Most basic commodities are not taxed to cushion the poor, but the changes that will be proposed in the national budget will end that. “We are looking at exemptions on several products that are widely consumed, but not on VAT such as milk, sugar, maize flour, wheat flour…,” said Benson Korongo, a commissioner of Kenya Revenue Authority” (Michira, 2018).

Prediction of the reaction to the taxes:

Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter” (…) “Suppliers of the affected supplies will not be able to claim any input tax incurred in making of such supplies. This cost will be borne by the final consumers. Reverting to exemption of these basic commodities a year later after they had been zero-rated will lead to an increase in their prices rendering them less affordable to the ordinary Citizens” (…) “The supply of maize (corn) flour, ordinary bread and cassava flour, wheat or meslin flour and maize flour containing cassava flour by more than 10% in weight” (…) “Reverting to exemption of these basic commodities a year later after they had been zero-rated will lead to an increase in their prices rendering them less affordable to ordinary Citizens” (Ey Global Tax Alert Library, 2018)

It is special when Ernest & Young (EY) whose is known for their advice for potential investors and people who plans for invest in a republic. They have usual advice, which shows the potential and the grips of reality. Their analysis from April are now coming in effect in the end of May, as the local papers like Standard write about it now. But they say it might happen in July.

The state has favorably subsidized it and also imported on its own, that might happen again. But the added tax will hit the public. Make the staple food more expensive, because of added taxes. The shops, the importers, the distribution companies will not take the hit. The hit is always ending up at the consumer, the buyer and not the ones who produce, distribute and sells. That is known and the way we play. Seriously, when the state plans with these taxes to earn over a trillion shillings, nearly two, means they are anticipating selling enough of the needed goods and services connected with the new taxes to actually be sold.

So the prices on the staple is rising, because the Jubilee Government, the President and his party is doing it. This is their orders and their will, it is not the international market or a drought, it is initial planning and what the state does to get more revenue.

Jubilee whose are eating all of the state, needs more revenue to make another NYS Scandal, take more funds from the likes of NHIF and inappropriately use unaccounted funds in the various government bodies. Peace.

Reference:

EY Global Tax Alert Library – ‘Kenya issues Tax Amendment Bill, 2018’ (April 2018)

Michira, Moses – ‘Red alert: Why the cost of food will go up in july’ (16.05.2018)

Link: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001280557/why-unga-prices-are-about-to-go-up

The National Coffee Act of 2018: A sour cup of Coffee or just another Robusta?

It is hard to see any significant change of the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, as the law of 1994 is planned to be repealed, as the Cabinet accepted a new bill yesterday at the State House. Let me explain, It would seem more reasonable, if someone leaked the text of the law, but the short tide bottlenecks of information leaked. That information is showing, that it is more of the same. Just some new buzz-words, to keep the donors buzzing.

Since the UCDA are already in charge of monitoring, pricing and promoting coffee, both internally and externally. They are supposed to help raise the quality of the coffee and educate farmers, both in production of better coffee, but also raise the yields for the cash-crop. The UCDA is rally a state organized body in both education, trade and promoting of coffee. Where all parts of the transaction from the seedlings to the trade of the ready beans has been in connection with the government body.

That is why the Cabinet decision that is released to the public, the one page dossier, as the law and the new provisions aren’t out, but if these footnotes are the realization of the changes from 1994 to become the new law in 2018. There are really just putting in the word sustainable and harmonize the roles of all the roles. Which is fancy lingo, for making sure everyone along the line is taxed and made sure they pay for the government services. Since they are already having the mandate by the law of 1994.

As sub-section 4 in the UCDA Act of 1994 states:

The functions of the authority shall be— to issue certificates in respect of the grade and quantity of coffee; to register in accordance with guidelines issued by the Minister, from time to time, on the advice of the board, all organisations and bodies applying to market coffee; to liaise with the Bank of Uganda in respect of repatriation of foreign exchange obtained from the sale of coffee; to set the quality control standards under which coffee is sold; to certify all coffee exports; to collect, maintain and disseminate statistical data in respect of all aspects of the coffee industry; to advise the Government on the mechanism for determining the minimum price for the sale of coffee; (h) to monitor world market price changes and adjust the minimum price on a day-to-day basis to reflect the changes; (i) to research and make extension arrangements through the Ministry responsible for agriculture or any other organisation established in the country for the purpose; (j) to reconcile coffee subsector policies with the macroeconomic policies of the Government; (k) to liaise with the International Coffee Organisation and be responsible for the administration of the stamps of the organisation; (l) to liaise with other international organisations and promote Uganda’s coffee on the world market; (m) to be responsible for the overall supervision of the coffee subsector, including related industries, and advise the Government on coffee subsector policies; (n) to organise training for technicians, coffee processors and quality controllers” (CHAPTER 325 THE UGANDA COFFEE DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY ACT, 1994).

So when I read from the spreadsheet from the Cabinet meeting at the State House, where the gist is to replace the 325, because they want to development of competitive, equitable and sustainable coffee, promote Coffee research, good Coffee farming practices, domestic coffee consumption and add value to the Coffee. Also, provide the Authority regulate all on-farm and off-farm activities in the Coffee Value Chain, streamline and harmonize the institution in the development of the Coffee Sector and to promote the Coffee sub-sector.

As what I see, the UCDA Act of 1994, not only hold the grabbing hands on all of this, but the mandate of the Authority is already, just not managed well, apparently. If the state cared about the Authority, they wouldn’t lack needed staff, as the Auditor General Report of December 2016, said the staff had 29 open positions, I don’t know if its as bad today, but wouldn’t be shocked if there was openings that the UCDA couldn’t fill, because of lack of funds.

What is striking to me, is that what the Cabinet Meeting of 21st May 2018, is what is in the statute of 1994. It just using a few different words, but if they cared about the UCDA, they would fund it properly and also actually have proper oversight of the operations. As the UCDA has often given away bad seedlings to Coffee farmers, in the same fashion as the Operation Wealth Creations has to its SACCO’s around the Republic. Like the Auditor General report of December 2016 says: “ Failure to plant and maintain coffee seedlings that were distributed and received by the farmers is wastage of Government Funds and eventually leads to failure to achieve planned coffee outputs at national level. Further, beneficiary lists withfarmers that never received inputs may be an indicator of irregular dealings on the part of seedling suppliers” (AG Report on UCDA December 2016, P: 19).

Therefore, the changing of words within the law is not fixing the remedy of the goodwill to generate more coffee and better yields. It is actually giving the king, what the king needs. That is not more fancy lingo, but actually actions and funds, also accountability, so that the farmers and the other part of the coffee production chain. Can all benefit from the Authority. On December 2017, the MoFPED delivered the National Budget Framework, which said this: “Continued implementation of the Coffee 2020 road map aimed at achieving 20million bags of 60Kg each per annum, including supporting research interventions at the National Agricultural Coffee Research Institute (NACORI) to produce high yielding coffee varieties and disease resistant tissue culture plants for coffee as well as development of a National Coffee Bill, 2017 that focuses on developing the entire coffee value chain and enable the country consolidate its dominant position in export earnings and employment” (MoFPED, P: 18, December 2017).

Therefore, the Cabinet meeting has initially decided to follow the guidelines of the National Budget Framework, as it was in December 2017. That is not surprising, but what is weird is the wording and how little change it is from the original law, that they are repealing. Unless, they have some magical formula sprinkled over it, making it a beautiful cake, instead of a boring bun with a little whipped cream. Because that is what it seems.

If you read the objectives of 1994, it doesn’t seem so far away from 2018, does it?

The objectives of the authority shall be— to promote, improve and monitor marketing of coffee with a view to optimising foreign exchange earnings and payments to the farmers; to control the quality of coffee in order to ensure that all coffee exported meets the standards stipulated by the contract between the seller and the buyer; to monitor the price of coffee in order to ensure that no export contract for the sale of coffee is concluded at a price below the minimum price; to develop and promote the coffee and other related industries through research and extension arrangements; to promote the marketing of coffee as a final product; (f) to promote domestic consumption of coffee” (UCDA Act of 1994).

That seems a lot like the spreadsheet of the Cabinet from yesterday, right?

Its only the value chain and add value on the coffee that is very new, but the rest more of the same. I am baffled or even shocked by this. It is like the Cabinet haven’t read the old bill or cared about the provisions there and thought. Maybe we should have better oversight of the Authority, instead they are changing wording and thinking that is magic wand to change the current predicament. If they wanted real change, they would have reformed the organization internally and used the provisions already there. But it is easier to make a leaflet, than change people’s mind and allocate funds.

Good morning and smell the coffee, well, I smell it, but more of the same. Just attached “sustainable” on the package, but taste is the same as yesterday. Peace.

The Spreadsheet of the aka National Coffee Bill of 2018!

Opinion: NRM, It is hard to see Middle-Income Status coming quickly!

He explained that the NRM manifesto is anchored in Vision 2040 and the second National Development Plan. It commits to deliver Ugandans into middle income status and to ensure sustainable development” (Mubiru, 2018).

Well, it is that time of the year. To prove the National Resistance Movement (NRM), that their empty promises. Because when you collect the news together. It is easy to see how things doesn’t add up. If the NRM was on their way to sustainable development, like Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda talked about earlier last week. Then all of the news coming wouldn’t fit. The narrative cannot be growth and development, when all of these issues are happening at the same time. It doesn’t fit. The glove has to fit the hand. The three things that doesn’t add up is the missing funds for the Presidents own Village Poverty Program, relief food for Karamoja and also a missing sugar factory.

Village Poverty Program:

State House has said it needs at least Shs 5bn to roll out the model village poverty alleviation initiative by President Yoweri Museveni. In the request contained in the Ministry of Presidency’s policy statement and budget estimates for 2018/2019, State House said the existing Shs 1bn budget for the project is too little and therefore a 500 percent increase is vital. The current Shs 1bn has only managed to establish small scale commercial agricultural farms in 21 model villages. The country, according to Electoral Commission of 2016 data, has 59,700 villages” (Okello, 2018).

Donate relief food:

The government of China has donated food aid worth $5 million (about Shs 18bn) to the World Food Programme (WFP) to support a feeding programme for vulnerable groups threatened by malnutrition in the Karamoja sub-region. More than 2000,000 people mostly school going children, infants and mothers are threatened by malnutrition in Karamoja according to official figures” (Lyatuu, 2018).

No existent Sugar Factory:

It is five years, since Atiak Sugar Factory under Haryal investment Holdings Limited was rolled out in Amuru District, to commence sugar production, but has since stalled, leaving a number of sugar cane farmers stranded. “The people shifted from food crops with hope to earn from sugar cane. Out growers are now worried that the factory will not take off in time to fully untilise the 4,000 acres planted,” reads part of their petition. Kilak North MP, Anthonu Akol who read out the petition to the Speaker said that the farmers are stuck with no factory to sell their sugarcane and questioning why the minister of Finance, Matia Kasaija, sold to them hot air” (Kyeyune, 2018).

All of these issues shouldn’t be at this state, if the state was seriously developing and on the way to Middle-Income status. There are so many issues that is missing, not only the ghosts and the added debt ratio in the budgets. This is all minor measures in the bigger picture, but it proves the lack of governance and accountability, when the state can grab land in Amuru district, but never deliver the promised the factory. As this been going on for years.

That the middle income cannot be fulfilled when the village poverty is so prevalent, that the scale is not fitting the needs. You know that the state lacks resources and well-funded plans to even achieve this. The President should have made sure and ensured the progress and at the planning stages, it this is his program, to be sure about the right amount and needed facilitation to deliver to the needed villages. That is apparently a mixed bag wooh-ha and nonsense.

Last but not least, is the donating of food to Karamoja, which in it self a sign of lack of progress. When your not able to meet the needs of your population and have good enough agricultural policies and output to feed yourself and your own kind. You know that the Middle Income Status is far-fetched, when this is still an issue. You know there are miles afar from the promise land. That the NRM and the President is clearly not delivering. There is no excuse in the book, that can fix the grandest issues of not being able to feed all communities and districts of Uganda. You know they are far from Middle Income, when China has to donate food to you….

Enough of the nonsense. Peace.

Reference:

Kyeyune, Moses – ‘Acholi sugarcane growers seek Parliament help over stalled factory’ (16.05.2018) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Acholi-sugarcane-growers-seek-Parliament-help-stalled-factory/688334-4565238-ueostj/index.html

Lyatuu, Justus – ‘China donates relief food to Karamoja’ (19.05.2018) link: http://observer.ug/news/headlines/57707-china-donates-relief-food-to-karamoja.html

Mubiru, Apollo – ‘NRM Manifesto: The road to modernity’ (18.05.2018) link: https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1477948/road-modernity

Okello, Dickens H. – ‘Shs5Bn Needed for Museveni’s Village Poverty Alleviation Program’ (21.05.2018) link: http://chimpreports.com/shs5bn-needed-for-musevenis-village-poverty-alleviation-program/

IGAD: CEWARN positioned to expand its integrated data collection and analysis system towards full regional coverage (01.05.2018)

Opinion: Jubilee is ready to skin you now that the elections are over!

Let it be known that the State Coffers and the Government isn’t a well-oiled machine, the Kenyan government is taking up debt to cover old debt, which is all created by the current administration and the current President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto. Both of them have taken up expensive loans for both running the government, but also development projects. However, they have run their tab and is struggling.

They have subsidized lots of things people needs, they have paid providers and importers, they have made sure the costs of importing and producing has been lower. Especially in the months in advance of the Presidential Elections in 2017 and also a little after. However, they don’t need the votes and public goodwill anymore. Therefore, the subsidizes are now ceasing to exist.

The prices of gasoline and similar products are going up now in January. The prices of electricity has already been rising. The eminent rise of prices on UNGA is also coming. All of this is coming, as the subsidizes are ceased. The Jubilee Government cannot afford the billing and the tab, they have gained so much debt, that they cannot muster enough money to pay for this too.

Expect sugar and cooking oil to go up. If the airtime for the phone companies and the charges on M-Pesa would go up as well. All the Mobile Money and Airtime could also rise. The inflation and the current instability in the economy will hit all parts of the economy. The signs are there and the government need to tax and get more fresh funds. Easiest is to charge every single costumer and citizens through what they are already needing and spending on. That is all of this.

Make sure that the needed products, the food, the electricity and the gas cost more. So that the charcoal and other ways of heating will cost more. There will be more blackouts and less businesses can afford to hold the generators working.

Parents are also feeling growing school-fees combined with payment for uniforms and extra curricular activities. All of this is adding cost and making it harder for people to send their kids to school. This all combined means that there is a higher cost of living, while the salaries are not following. Meaning that the citizens are getting poorer, by just existing and breathing in the same space as the politicians.

That the Jubilee Alliance Party have tricked the public is clear, that they are trying to earn money on the public and find ways to fix their ill-gained debt spiral with added taxes and higher cost of living. The expenses of ordinary and needed products are rising. It is worrying, the signal of a falling economy and problematic investor space. Where cartels are controlling sugar, flour-milling and imports. Where the cronies and families of the political circle are owner and involved in key businesses.

We can wonder why it had to happen just small months after the elections and the swearing-in in November 2017. That Kenyatta and Ruto have planned this for a while. That is why the Forex Levy is now being changed and making things more costly. The UNGA and Sugar subsidy are also gone, as it was just a temporary relief. The gasoline and the electricity are controlled by the state and special levy, which is now taken away.

The ones paying this is the public, its the citizens and the politicians, the government know why it happens and let it happen. We can wonder, why they are accepting making life harder for their citizens. Peace.

Brexit: Lords Report shows dire consequences of a “No Deal”!

If you ever will believe the narrative of the Conservative Party and the leadership around Theresa May, Boris Johnson and David Davis. Then you might believe there will be no consequences if the United Kingdom leave the European Union without any agreement. That means all the previous ones will cease and the third state of United Kingdom. Will loose all direct connections and also hurt all sort of movements between UK and European Member States and the Schengen Countries. This will hurt businesses, exports and also direct movement between UK and the EU. I will take the quotes that are showing the most concern from the House of Lords. The words from there is not my own, but from the Lords themselves and what they have collected. Take a look!

The Loan Market Association pointed out that the loss of the Capital Requirements Directive passport would have a major impact on lending and loan market activities conducted by banks. A sudden withdrawal of passporting rights could affect both the enforceability of existing loan agreements and the ability and willingness by UK-based lenders to enter into future agreements” (…) “Lloyd’s predicted that the transfer of personal data from the EU to the UK would also be more difficult for UK firms doing business in the EEA. London based firms would therefore have to establish EEA subsidiaries or cease to write EEA insurance” (House of Lords, P: 11, 2017).

The Fresh Produce Consortium noted that the Port of Dover handled 600 lorries per day transporting fresh produce. In 2016, the UK imported 3 million tonnes of fresh produce from other EU Member States. Many suppliers dealing solely in EU imports have no experience of meeting customs requirements, and registration as an Authorised Economic Operator would not be feasible for most small importers” (…) “The British Retail Consortium warned that the average tariff on food products imported from the EU would be 22%, with tariffs on Irish cheddar of 44% and on beef of 40%. Its research pointed to potential rises in the price of cheese in the order of 6–32%, on tomatoes of 9–18%, and on beef of 5–29%. Nontariff barriers would be burdensome in relation to customs checks, and health or veterinary checks stemming from sanitary and phytosanitary requirements” (House of Lords, P: 12, 2017).

The Institute for Government noted that, in order to prepare the border for ‘no deal’, change would be needed across 30 Government departments and public bodies, as well as more than 100 local authority organisations. Private sector port operators, freight forwarders and shipping lines would need to adapt

their infrastructure, paperwork and logistics. France, The Netherlands and Ireland would also need to plan for disruption at their ports. Operation Stack demonstrated how delays at Calais have a knock-on effect in Dover” (…) “The BRC pointed out that up to 180,000 UK companies would be drawn into customs declarations for the first time. Companies would have to operate new excise and VAT systems for compliance purposes” (House of Lords, P: 14, 2017).

The London Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted that there was no WTO ‘fail safe’ for the aviation sector: “The ultimate danger is that without a deal, flights from the UK and to the EU and other parts of the world will be grounded on exit day … And without an early deal—meaning clarity for airports, airlines and travellers as soon as possible in 2018—the uncertainty around what might happen will begin to weigh on the decision making of those considering travel.” (House of Lords, P: 15, 2017).

The Russell Group concluded that no deal would affect universities’ ability to deliver world-leading research and education. No deal on the rights of EU citizens to live, study and work in the UK could lead to a loss of talented researchers and technicians with specialist skills who could not be replaced easily by UK nationals. If the UK and EU did not secure an agreement on science and research collaboration, UK institutions would cease to be eligible for Horizon 2020 funding on the day of exit. This would mean funding for existing projects would be withdrawn and researchers would immediately lose the ability to bid for this funding, with a detrimental impact on international competitiveness” (House of Lords, P: 16, 2017).

The Institute for Government observed that “if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, it will not be possible to put in place any agreed arrangements to manage the border in Ireland. The UK could (possibly) decide to turn a blind eye. But the land border will represent the external frontier of the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union and it is hard to envisage how they would manage that without some sort of controls in place.” (House of Lords, P: 17, 2017).

A complete ‘no deal’ outcome would be deeply damaging for the UK. It would bring UK-EU cooperation on matters vital to the national interest, such as counter-terrorism, police, justice and security matters, nuclear safeguards, data exchange and aviation, to a sudden halt. It would place the status of UK nationals in the EU, and EU nationals in the UK, in jeopardy, and would necessarily lead to the imposition of controls at the Irish land border” (House of Lords, P: 44, 2017).

The Conservative Party after this report is released cannot say the “No Deal” is a good deal, since the effect on their own and the business community is damaging. The movement between the UK and the EU will be hurt. It is just a matter of how hard and how strained the sudden change between the UK and EU occur.

The words of the report is showing just brief reflections of how a non-deal would effect the UK. Therefore, the Tories should do whatever they can to let the negotiations go smooth and make sure the separation goes well for all parties. That the borders between Ireland and European Union is not put on hold, but actually have tariffs and have regulations for movement after they left. If it is for the movement of the people or imports/exports of services and products. We can clearly see by the information collected into the House of Lords Report. That the “No Deal”, will make certain industry suffer and make the transition ever more costly for business, which will also hurt the people who has to pay more for their services/products.

If the Conservative Party still pounds and says that a “No Deal” is still okay. Then they are not looking into or not telling the truth about the implications of that. The Tories better come clean try to work against the clock for the betterment of their citizens. They have a mission to secure their citizens and their future on the outside of EU. No matter what that is, the UK has to make sure the provisions and regulations are put in place, so people and businesses can work under new agreement between EU and the UK. Peace.

Reference:

House of Lords – European Union Committee – ‘Brexit: deal or no deal’ (07.12.2017)

Brexit: Theresa May was DUPed today!

Ouch! Today the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Leader Arlene Foster and her agreement with the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Theresa May blocked a possible agreement today in Brussels. The European Union and United Kingdom negotiations to get first agreement and end Phase I is stalled for yet another time. Even as the power-players of the Brexit is coming to the forefront. There are vital signs on the horizon and it makes sense.

The Irish Government and their veto is vital for the European Union and their settlement with the United Kingdom. The Republic of Ireland as a Member State has an important role in the negotiations with United Kingdom. Therefore, after the meeting between Donald Tusk and Leo Varadkar, where the President of European Council promised to respect and honor the needs of the Irish in the negotiations. Clearly, showing signs of importance for Union and their Member State.

So now days after and there is a lunch with negotiations between the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May. As they we’re ending negotiations and there was talk of a special agreement between them. The Northern Irish DUP was ready to go public and say what sort of offer they want in the agreement. Also, show their power and their means within the Tories-DUP Government. As expected when the agreement came in play, the DUP would have the upper-hand over the Tories, since the Tories needs DUP more than DUP needs the Tories.

Now with possible special economic zones where they are still part of single-market and free-trade zones. Will easily offer a conundrum for the Tories. Since if the Northern Irish get so on the will of Dublin and EU. Then, the Scottish, Welsh and London wants similar treatment. That meaning that the City of London, the Financial institutions and European Banks wants to secure this sort of arrangements. So that the tariffs and the expenses crossing borders with these services will not change when the Membership finally ends.

We have already seen First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon asking for special treatment, also the London Mayor Sadiq Khan, First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones have all asked for favors treating their regions with the same favor as Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland doesn’t only the direct border issue with the Republic of Ireland, but also have special place within the Tories Government. This is all making the Brexit negotiations hectic.

Because, all of these leaders wants the best for Edinburgh, Cardiff and London. The thing is when you open one door, you don’t always know what appears. In this instance, if the Tories and DUP opens up for special treatment of Belfast, than Edinburgh, City of London and Cardiff want similar efforts thrown their way. That is within reason. I am sure David Davis when discussing matters with Michael Barnier, knew about these sketchy, but notable pin-points. To secure a grand deal for all parts of the UK. If not and most likely he was winging it and hoping nobody was paying him any mind or consideration.

Because the Leo Varadkar said in a press conference that the text agreement on the Irish border was agreed upon, but suddenly the United Kingdom couldn’t agree upon it. This happen after Theresa May had a phone-call with Foster, just after Foster and the DUP had their own press conference. Clearly, the DUP haven’t agreed upon it and want to set their foot down.

Today are proving how hard it is for the United Kingdom to have one line and walk in one separate vision towards ending the membership. Since if the one part of their own Union get special treatment, than the Welsh, Scottish and London is expecting similar their way. So there will only be hot pockets in Manchester, Swindon and Newcastle, where they are outside the free-trading zone and single-market, as the Brexit was supposed to entail. That because the Northern Irish question will not only be answered by London or Belfast, but Dublin will have their say in the arrangement of the border.

Dublin have Brussels and the Membership inside the EU. So their veto and stopping of an agreement in powerful. As well as their desire to respect the Good Friday Agreement. The DUP has power over the Tories and London, but have initial power over Brussels. Brussels will listen to Dublin before they listen to Belfast. That is just common-sense. Since Belfast will follow London… ‘

So the DUP could block the Tories in Brussels today, but they cannot push it to far. If they try to, then the agreement between them will fail the government and not extend a hand into the negotiations. So they can get into Phase II and answer other questions the UK needs to address concerning leaving the EU.

This one will not end. And the self-destruction don’t need to come from outside when concerning the UK. The UK can dissolve themselves and hurt themselves whenever needed. The UK are now begging for mercy from Belfast, London needs Belfast. That is why May gave-up the text and border agreement that was ready to fix over lunch today. Clearly, the DUP, they duped May and enjoys it.

We can wonder how May feels when arriving back in London.. She has now been humiliated by their own partner in the government. It must be weird to May. Who cannot win easily and cannot get a stable approach. Today the strong and stable government pledge of General Election 2017. Seemingly seems like a far fetched dream and closer to nightmare. As May cannot even work without being stifled by Foster. Peace.

Brexit: DUP leader Arlene Foster – “we will not accept any form of regulatory divergence” (04.12.2017)

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