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Archive for the category “Trade”

Brexit: TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady letter to Prime Minister Theresa May (21.03.2019)

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Opinion: President Kenyatta’s corruption fight is like a mirage

If the sword of oppression be permitted to lop off one limb without opposition, reiterated strokes will soon dismember the whole body.” Alexander Hamilton

After the recent weeks and the new fancy scandals, you can pound and wonder, where is there no corruption, Mr. President?

The President, I am asking today is President Uhuru Kenyatta and his administration. The Jubilee has a special feature, they have a own slogan of fighting corruption, while amassing more of them at the same time. They are capturing the headlines nearly daily.

President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto are in the wind, they are battling a big monster, which themselves are contributing too. They are trying to play the card of battling it, while they are feeding it. The Cabinet Secretaries are usually implicated, the Principal Secretaries are as well.

The government are doing it all ways possible, by borrowing money for ghost projects like ghost-dams, which has been revealed recently. The state has taken giant loans from Eurobonds twice and still configured ways to siphon the funds away from the government. The Jubilee have eaten directly from the investment funds directed to youth employment. The Jubilee have been able to take away from health care procurement and waste funds there, instead of helping the sickly in dire need.

This is how we can go-on. This is a continued saga that never stops. While the Jubilee have a stark rise in corruption, at the same time, the state has taken out more and more debt. Therefore, the state is not only owning the creditors more money, but they are also wasting the loans. Which the state will pay back with interests after the grace period. This is will backfire on the next cabinets and next state officials, as they will have to clear the debts and find revenue to repay them. If not sell collateral- or assets. This will really be devastating.

Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto will downplay the indirect bribes, graft and corruption done by their officials, they will say it is less or not really allocated. They will act a fool, but at the same time attack the cause and say they are dealing with it. By going after the minor cases or small fry, they are going after the chicken thief or the small businessmen who does it to be able to trade on the market. However, the ones who runs the market and runs the “monopoly” imports are in the pocket of the administration, and will will not be touched.

As long as Cheech and Chong is running this Republic. The growth of the corruption will continue to rise. As their businesses are growing, their empires are getting stronger. The two leaders are grabbing more land, more government tenders and even development projects. That is what the President and Deputy does. While the Jubilee says they are fighting it.

Therefore, as long as these two are running the government. Expect more graft, bribes, kick-backs, siphoned funds and ghost projects. There will ghost everywhere, the cronies will create straw/shell companies who siphon funds… this will occur again and again. The state will give- or loan for non-function development projects/organizations, whose supposed to do something, but in reality it will be a figment of imagination. It will be a make believe like a mirage. It will only be in the vision of the person hinging for water, but when the person arrives to the mirage. There will be no water, but only more hot-sand. This is what the Jubilee does to the public.

The Jubilee is offering a mirage to continue … and hoping no one is feeling the hot-sand, but believing in the mirage. Peace.

Brexit: A “No Deal” will have significant impact for the UK!

We cannot trample upon the humanity of others without devaluing our own. The Igbo, always practical, put it concretely in their proverb Onye ji onye n’ani ji onwe ya: “He who will hold another down in the mud must stay in the mud to keep him down.” Chinua Achebe

Today, the Tories dropped an short assessment of the implications of the “No Deal” Brexit. Which for many has been seen as a damaging affair. This is sort of report, that is dropped today. Isn’t scaremongering, but more a reality check to the ones whose thinking the “No Deal” is good idea.

I will quote significant parts of the report, like this: “Despite the Government’s efforts to prepare for a no deal, a no deal scenario would have a range of significant impacts for the UK”. I will come more to the significant impacts, as they are issued in the report, even as sleek as it is. Only 15 pages, but still has enough meat to hurt your hopes.

Like this: “This estimates that the UK economy would be 6.3-9% smaller in the long term in a no deal scenario (after around 15 years) than it otherwise would have been when compared with today’s arrangements, assuming no action is taken”. That is all a major hit on the economy, as you are shrinking nearly one tenth of the economy, if the worst estimates are hitting the economy.

Another part of hard hitting new realities is this: “In a no deal scenario, both the UK and EU would need to apply customs and excise rules and VAT to goods moving between the UK and EU, as they are currently applied to goods traded in the rest of the world. Every consignment would require a customs declaration, and so around 240,000 UK businesses that currently only trade with the EU would need to interact with customs processes for the first time, should they continue to trade with the EU”. This has been forewarned by plenty, even the likes of me, but not that it has mattered. Maybe, the buck has to get this close only a few days and weeks away. For many businesses and people struggling with movement. To recognize the costs and lack of protocol to deal with so.

Here is the impact on the food import: “One of the most visible ways in which the UK would be affected by delays in goods crossing the Channel is our food supply, 30% of which comes from the EU. Although our food supply is diverse, resilient, and sourced from a wide variety of countries, the potential disruption to trade across the Short Channel Crossings would lead to reduced availability and choice of products”. This means that vital parts of the imports and needed food are stopped, because the availability will go down. There might be shortages and even withheld, because the proper documentation and such is lacking. This should be a worry and show how this is hitting home. To make matters worse: “ In the absence of other action from Government, some food prices are likely to increase, and there is a risk that consumer behaviour could exacerbate, or create, shortages in this scenario. As of February 2019, many businesses in the food supply industry are unprepared for a no deal scenario”. This doesn’t make it better. Only shows that the government haven’t done their job, preparing the industry or the importers who could have made sufficient preparation, as the government could have ensured this. Instead, the public is hit with higher prices and lack of certain food products.

For instance, the issues of Northern Ireland comes returning with fire and fury: “the cumulative impact from a ‘no deal’ scenario is expected to be more severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer. This is because of Northern Ireland’s unique circumstances, including in particular its geographical position as the only part of the UK with a land border with the EU, and the current lack of an Executive in Northern Ireland. The Government has been clear that it is committed to avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland in any scenario”. This shows, that the NI problem, the whole Good Friday Agreement would be played around with, as the Brexit will hit Northern Ireland. They are making hardships not only there, but for the ones across in the Irish Republic. That is what seems to be happening with the No Deal Brexit. Not only hit the economy of NI, but in general not following the promises made to that part of United Kingdom.

Seemingly done this silently: “Government has been accelerating its preparations for a no deal scenario since September, with a particular emphasis since December 2018. However, the short time remaining before 29 March 2019 does not allow Government to unilaterally mitigate the effects of no deal. Even where it can take unilateral action, the lack of preparation by businesses and individuals is likely to add to the disruption experienced in a no deal scenario”. Seems like they haven’t done enough or kept it low-key. The preparedness haven’t been there, if it had been, than the businesses would have been more prepared. They have clearly not kept everyone informed about their accelerating plans or assessment of a no deal.

For the ones saying the Brexit wouldn’t matter, wouldn’t cost or wouldn’t change things in a negative perspective. You were wrong. The realities of possible losses of fortunes should frighten anyone. The possible troubles of imports of foods and other vital items should also be a sign of what sort of self-created nightmare the UK have made for themselves.

The government are trying to say they are not having mud on themselves, while pushing the public into the mud. To repeat from the beginning, like the Igbo says: “He who will hold another down in the mud must stay in the mud to keep him down”.

Enough of the mud of a No Deal. Peace.

Reference:

HM Government – ‘Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019’ Published: 26.02.2019

Kenya Revenue Authority: Press Statement – KRA has not abolished filing of tax returns as reported (25.02.2019)

Opinion: RTGS Dollars are Bond-Notes on steroids!

Today on the 20th February, the Governor John Mangudya of Zimbabwe Reserve Bank have launched a new currency in the Republic. This is the second time within the amount of three years, that the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) have launched a currency.

Because on the 26 November 2016, the same authorities launched the Bond-Notes. As that currency been struggling ever since. As the promise of 1:1 Forex Exchange between the Bond-Notes and US. Dollars. However, that haven’t been the issue, as the Bond-Notes been weaker than that. Significantly weaker, but the authorities have played around like it has the same value.

The RBZ have launched the RTGS Dollars, which are fully named Real-Time Gross Settlement Dollars. In all means of the name is real long name for a currency. Even the RTGS Dollars sounds like insignificant transaction. Because, the RTGS is like a crypto currency, a digital one, where the amount of RTGS Balances + Bond-Notes = RTGS Dollars.

Therefore, the RTGS is based on the liquidity of RTGS Balances, which means the Mobile Money Transactions plus the Bond-Notes. That is showing the lack of value in the currency before even starting.

What is showing the nightmare of the whole Bond-Notes of 2016 is relaunched today in 2018. It is just repacked and they hope this will maintain stability of the exchange rate. However, it is now the whole multi-currency system in a boiling pot and they hope it becomes a tasty stew, by blending in a new feature. Which seemingly is built on a transactions system, instead of a assets and liquidity built into a stable financial market. As the currency is supposed to be trusted and be a state instrument for transactions. Instead, here it is built on shaky grounds and just awaiting to sink.

The governor of the bank has in 2017 called the economy an albatross. Certainly with the RTGS Dollars, that is not changing. As the unfortunate ideas continues arising and they think these will solve the lack of foreign exchange and the lack of input into the system. However, they are not thinking straight and unlocking new scary scenarios. As they are now trying to shield the Bond-Notes, get them into the digital transactions of the RTGS Dollars, which would hopefully get more funds into the system. It might infuse more funds, as these are returning and become taxed by the RTGS taxes. That is surely securing the values and lack of trust in the Bond-Notes, which now will be transferred to the RTGS combined with the RTGS Dollars. That later can be changed again into the US Dollars. That shows the weakness of the whole system. Just like it was with the Bond-Notes alone.

The RTGS Dollars will be devastating as the launch of Bond-Notes. This is just another storm in a glass. Now, the state and republic can just await another hurdle. The RTGS Dollars will be as hectic or maybe even more than Bond-Notes. Even if people are familiar, the reality is that US Dollars have been the saving grace and even civil servants wanted their salaries paid in that.

Therefore, the current future is the new digital currency, the RTGS Dollars will be a rocky road. How it will be? Who knows? But the launch of Bond-Notes was a mess, this will surely be no different… Peace.

Brexit: PM May even sinks a Motion!

If a book about failures doesn’t sell, is it a success?” Jerry Seinfeld

It is now just mere days before the United Kingdom (UK) are withdrawing from their membership from the European Union (EU). As it has soon gone two years since the process started with Prime Minister Theresa May notifying the intention to leave and use of Article 50. The Tories has worked their magic and their shambolic affair, which now is tragic comedy called Brexit.

Today, it hit another stage, as the Tories and the PM made a Withdrawal Agreement, which the Parliament voted down on the 15th January 2019. Which means that the time spent between Brussels and the HM Government wasn’t fruitful or meaningful enough. As the agreement made between EU and UK are now in limbo, as the Members of Parliament see it as botched deal. That only gives way, but not the freedoms the UK is supposed to get after leaving.

However as the UK is getting closer to the due date, the deadline, which is on the 29 March 2019. It is mere 43 days ahead and nothing seems feasible. PM May had scheduled a motion to see if she had support in Parliament, as she is trying to gain support for further negotiations with the EU. Even as the EU has said, they are not in it to renegotiate.

Here’s the PM May’s Brexit Motion:

That this House welcomes the Prime Minister’s statement of 12 February 2019; reiterates its support for the approach to leaving the EU expressed by this House on 29 January 2019 and notes that discussions between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland backstop are ongoing” (Theresa May – Motion on UK’s withdrawal from the EU, 14.02.2019).

Today, this Motion was defeated with the total votes of “Noes” of 303. The “Ayes” was 258 votes. Therefore, the PM lost even this supporting motion in the House of Commons. The PM couldn’t even muster some moral support in the six final weeks before the official withdrawal of the EU.

The UK is clearly in a limbo, where nothing is moving or happening. The EU are seeing a ship sinking and letting it sink, by its own actions. The UK will have to be a Third Country, which will trade with WTO rules and also restricted movement of people. That is happening, as well, as the industries and businesses are hit by this.

PM May promised strong and stable leadership during the elections. However, as we have seen the recent months and year. That the PM and Tories are really weak and not coherent. They are more involved in the struggle to keep power, than actually governing. They are more focused on their own ambition, than actually delivering the needed services to the citizens. That is why they are risking the future, just for the hell of it.

They are trying to sell “No-Deal” like it is hot-cake now, because the Withdrawal Agreement was a fad and mockery of a deal. As well, as the whole negotiations with Brussels, clearly gave all way to the EU and their regulations. That is why it was bound fail from its inception. However, May and the Tories thought they could spin it all.

That did not work. Neither did a symbolic vote. Not that any of the amendments was accepted either. But they are casualties in the scheme of things.

Who is not a casualty is the Prime Minister, who has had the upper-hand and the opportunity to do something meaningful. Instead, she has made a mess and doesn’t want to clean it up. Instead, hoping no-one understand the destruction or the possible mess she has made. Because, when they do, it might be to late. Peace.

Ethio Telecom: Statement to Correct Misleading Information on International Internet Gateway Capacity (11.02.2019)

RioZim Limited: Press Release – Regarding the Failure by Fidelity Printers and Refiners (Private) Limited (A Subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe) to Pay Foreign Currency Nostro for Gold Delivered (08.02.2019)

Cameroon: Impex Trading SARL lettre – “Objet: Signature convention de collaboration” (31.01.2019)

Brexit: 50 days to D-Day, but the future is still loading!

Just as you thought it wouldn’t get more rocky, it does. The HM Government or the Tories have not delivered a smooth transition, neither has the House of Commons. As the European Union and the European Commission are not making it softer either. The stalemate are there and both parties are creating a battlefield. They are behind the barriers, but that was to be anticipated.

Because, the Department of Exiting the European Union (DEXEU), the Foreign Secretary and Secretary for DEXEU could have sorted this out, but it has been hectic and looking like nothing. That is why the Withdrawal Agreement made with the EU got voted down in the House of Commons. Since, then the Tories, Prime Minister Theresa May or anyone else haven’t solved anything.

The Tories and the politicians in London, still acts like they can negotiate and configure the results in their favour. As they are not considering the need of European Commission and the EU Members State majority of the 27 nations. The UK had the time since revoking the Article 50 and had two years to solve it. Instead, it has been a PR game and soft declarations without any binding legality between the parties.

That is why these days are weird. As the stalemate is getting so close. The Tories promised that this would be easy. That this would be a simple separation between the UK and EU. However, what the last two years have proven, that it is far from it.

This will cost, not only the UK, but both parties. The withdrawal and the possible “No-Deal” will hurt the economy. It will create a harder border and ensure that movement between the UK and EU will be with more hurdles. The procedures and the imports/exports situation will change as the WTO tariffs and others come into effects. Also, with the planned movements of Financial Institutions and stoppage of international companies who change destinations of production instead of doing it in the UK. That is what is happening, Global Financial Funds who have either moved to Ireland or Germany. This will create less jobs and less liquidity in the markets. Therefore, the no-deal will hurt the economy.

It is like they do this deliberately, the warnings was there. The Brexiteers called it scaremongering, when it really was a reality check. As Airbus, Barclays, Nissan, Honda and others has called it out and said they are moving their businesses, as the expenses of doing it in the UK will be to costly with a No-Deal. Not that it has mattered, because, that is just the way it is. That is why also many businesses have awaited to invest as, they are not sure of the market or the possibility to earn it there.

As well, as the years of austerity might make it worse. The Bank of England today said the no-deal would probably drive the Kingdom into a recession, as the hard hit on the economy are made by the lack of agreement and also smooth transition, which is needed in this sort of arrangement. The businesses and investors are awaiting and the multi-national companies already there are trying to move to a safe-haven to safe their assets and their businesses in general.

The UK have hit itself hard, as the reality check is loading. It is loading and the UK are still in limbo. The Tories are acting like they have all the time in the world. Brexiteers have acted like this was easy. Like it was child’s play or a pick-and-mix, where they could cherry pick the rules and regulations between the EU and UK. However, that has been proven, unfavourable and not the real deal.

I have stated from the beginning. The EU would have protocols and have regulations to put forward. Concerning borders, movement and trade, this being Customs Union and other direct trading between them. That would directly change when the relations between the UK and EU would become differently.

The uncertainty, the lack of trust and the lack of progress is staggering. As the time is running out. The future is now loading. But nothing in sight, that gives hope of solved enterprise or anything that would give solution at this very moment. The weirdest thing is that its only 50 days to the revoking of Article 50 comes into effect. Peace.

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