Opinion: Mushrooming the state will not muster progress

This week the Republic got 6 new official cities, towns suddenly turned cities overnight. It hasn’t been overnight, the state has worked with this and pledged to do this. The state, the President and everyone involve is doing this for brownie-points, as the state will not have the funds to facilitate the transition. Neither was there allocated funds to make it feasible.

Just like there been lacking of funds to new districts, been lack of possible accounts and trust to cover the mushroomed sub-counties and municipalities. It is just endless add—ons over the years. The Republic has so many districts, sub-counties and municipalities that you can a headache just thinking about it.

This is what the National Resistance Movement does, they are micro-managing from the State House. Giving hand-outs to cronies, ensuring constituencies for loyalists and adding more MPs. It is cycle of adding more and more expenditure without having the growth of revenue. This is why the state is continuing to deficit finance the budgets. While struggling to cover the added expenditure.

It is like the setting up of new districts is a free-enterprise. Even if each district is supposed to have certain amount of structures, councils and whatnot. There is cost all along the way and not just a pickpocket of MP in Kampala. No, there is costs of civil servants, buildings and promised local government service. Which usually comes long after the choir singed songs on the day of launching any given district.

The same will be with the 6 cities. There will be outcries, as the state haven’t allocated or considered the costs. They just did it to look good ahead of elections. Honour old pledges and give the locals a title. Not ensuring the cities had their city council, had the office of the Lord Mayors and had all the other structures needed to be sufficiently running like one. There aren’t division mayors nor local councillors. This is just the mess. Yes, during the General Elections there might be elected some of those, but do they have anywhere to work from and conduct their operations?

That is what you can wonder about and if the state had thought of it. It is easy to change a title, it is easy give a place a name and call it a city. However, to operate as a city and pay the cost is a whole other animal. Just like sub-county has lesser of structure and promise of local government compared to any given district. That is just the reality.

In the end. This is just a battle of debt, a battle of insufficient funds and deficit financing. Pay for the cleaners and the nurses, but not having the credit to do so. Putting up shelters and housing units, but not giving them electricity. Wonder why everyone is in the dark and why things aren’t happening.

What is striking is the naivety about it. That there wasn’t people warning about it. That people don’t see the burden and problems that will come later. It is fun and games now. However, how will it be for the next man taking over as Head of State trying to rationalize it?

There is no sense to have that many districts, sub-counties and municipalities in the Republic. We all know that and its a political ploy to feed cronies on loaned funds. A bargain for the State House to get loyal pawns all across the Republic. It isn’t to better service delivery nor better governance. It is just adding costs without adding any new revenue. Peace.

Bank of Uganda: Measures to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19 (20.03.2020)

Bank of Uganda: Monetary Policy Statement for February 2020 (13.02.2020)

Opinion: Rushing City Statuses to get more MPs

This here is just happening ahead of elections, as the state who is already fatigued financially. That Minster for Local Government Tom R. Butime is putting in a motion for newly created cities across the republic. This means new measures, need needs and costs for the state. The City Status will not come without any consequence. Not only in regards to boundaries, but also the needed local government there.

It seems like the old presidential pledges are revamped just mere a year in advance of the next general election in 2021. The plan of 7 cities to take effect on the 1^st July 2020, these being Arua, Gulu, Jinja, Mbarara, Fort Portal, Mbale and Masaka. While Hoima will first become a city on the 1^st July 2021. Later than that on the 1^st July 2022 then it will happen to Entebbe and Lira. The final stage of these upgraded towns to city status is on the 1^st July 2023, these will be Moroto, Nakasongola, Soroti, Kabale and Wakiso. All of them becoming cities, which means the state, are in total planning the upgrade of 15 towns to cities in the small amount of time of 3 years.

That is five cities every year from now on. What law defines is that a city is equivalent of a district and wards of sub-counties. Meaning, this a way of also carving up districts and securing a more MPs to Parliament. Also, ensuring a more rigorous ways of gerrymandering before any given election. Though, not create by-elections, as they are deemed unfit, as law already represents these Cities.

We are seeing a haste, like Arua have about 62,000 in population. While Gulu on the other hand has about 152,000 in population. Jinja has about 72,000 and Mbarara has 195,000. Fort Portal only has about 52,000 in population. Mbale has about 96,000 and Masaka has about 103,000.  Also even smaller is the likes of Nakasongola, which is about 10,000, Kabale and Soroti is each about 49,000 close to 50,000 in population. While Moroto is only about 14,000 in population and Waksio have about 20,000. Therefore, with just a brief look into the numbers, you wonder what standard has the Minister and the Ministry put for a city status at this point of time. You can easily see the difference between Nakasongola, Fort Portal and Gulu. That makes a brother wonder about the status at all.

It seems to be a political game of changing districts and ensuring easier rigging, also new MPs from new “districts” than actually giving city status and urban services to these areas. As the state already suffers funds for the new districts it already has. That is no joke and been a revolving issue. So, for whatever reason Butime MP is pushing this. That can only be for electioneering. Because, who will defend calling a town of about 10,000 a C-I-T-Y? Really, Nakasongola is deemed to be a city?

I can understand Mbarara and Gulu, even Masaka. They have a population of a decent size. That you can understand and reason it out somehow. The others seems to be early birds, just because it supposed to make benefits, but it will also strain the budgets more. As with every expansion, every change of local government it will cost. The changes of municipalities, town and cities will cost. There will be carved wards and new titles for the local government. That is implied with these sort of changes. To think otherwise is dumb.

Someone has to foot the bill, someone got to cough up the dough for the operation at hand. It is not without costs. This will be more expenditure and more MPs. More leaders, more elections and more expenditure. Where will the Minister find the cash? Peace.

Bank of Uganda: Monetary Policy Statement for December 2019 (09.12.2019)

Opinion: Mr. President your late to the party…

I have a hard time believing that President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) will stop creating districts, sub-counties and whatever local government administrations in the Republic. They will never really cease doing so, because they constantly carved the Republic into tiny pieces. So, that every single Sub-County today can become a district in the near future. It should be a joke, but looking at history, than it isn’t far-fetched at all.

By seeing this one piece from the New Vision:

“In 1986 when NRM took power, Uganda had 33 districts which increased to 81 districts by 2008. The districts increased to 112 by 2011, but reduced to 111 after the Capital city ceased to be a district” (John Odyek, Mary Karugaba and Moses Walubiri – ‘25 more districts created’ 19.07.2012, New Vision).

Than my own calculation from November 2019:

The State has continued to create the districts and sub-counties. In 2016 there was 112 districts and by 2021, there will be 135 districts. As well as there was 1,403 sub-counties in 2016, while in 2021 there will be 2057 sub-counties.

With knowing this and the knowledge of the mushrooming state. There is bit a late to cry foul over more town councils and the affordability. When during your time the state has gone from having 33 districts to 135 districts in 2021.

Therefore, this warning seems a bit late:

“They are going to be too many and not affordable. Let the little money we have be concentrated first in maintaining security, building infrastructure(roads, railway, electricity, schools, and health centres) and not expanding administrative costs,”Museveni warned in November 28 letter to Butime. The warning by the president comes at a time when government recently announced the creation of 162 new town council that started being operational this year, whereas others will be operational by July 1, 2020” (Kenneth Kazibwe – ‘Museveni warns against creation of new municipalities’ 08.12.2019).

Because of this, I don’t believe the man. I really don’t believe the President and his motives here. It is weird that he has issues, when his made so many districts and sub-counties already. That creating further town councils only follows the modus operandi of the state.

Not like its a revolutionary idea from the state to make more. It would be more shocking if he started to merge sub-counties and districts. So, that it would be less districts and sub-counties in the Republic. In this current stage and time, that would have been positive and plans for actual change. However, than the devolution and the years of curving the districts. It would show the public that it was only political motivated and not really making government better.

That he warns about this in 2019 after 33 years in power and been so hyper-active with creating smaller entities. His surely the wrong man to signal the red-flag. Yes, the state cannot afford more town-councils and such. But that is because the state has already to many districts and sub-counties to pay for.

The state is already deficit financing, the mushroomed state, which the President and his men has created over the years. That is why, writing a letter this year isn’t solving anything or making a difference on the negative and expensive spiral, the President has started. The President knows this, but thinks this make him look smart. When it doesn’t, since his in charge of all these small entities and that will part of his legacy. He can cry now, but his crocodile tears are coming late.

He should have stopped before he created a 100 districts more in his time. Who knows how many sub-counties his created, but surely a 1000 by now. Than count the Municipalities and Town Councils, than you get humongous number. That is what bloated numbers sound like. Therefore, sending out warnings now is late from the old man, he should have done it long time ago, but he didn’t care. Peace.

Opinion: RDCs getting cars isn’t governing, but a cheap trick!

“The Minister for Presidency, Esther Mbayo has given out 65 cars to Resident District Commissioners (RDCs) from different regions to improve on service delivery. The RDCs who received the cars on Thursday constitute 50% of the total number of Resident District Commissioners currently deployed in the country” (Muhamad Matovu – ‘Minister Mbayo Gives 65 Cars To RDCs From Different Regions’ 22.11.2019).

There are 135 districts, which is operative in the Republic. This is November 2019. There will come more districts in 2020 and so-on. As the Republic is made into smaller and smaller units as political favours and for personal gains of the political elite. That is well-known, as well as a measure done to establish good grounds of new constituencies with no voting history ahead of any given election.

With this in mind, there is an up-coming election in 2021. It is not the first time the National Resistance Movement (NRM) run government have given cars to its officials. They are not only giving that to the MPs and the cabinet, but also anyone in association with the State House. Therefore, the State House and the Parliament should have a car-lot and a car-dealership, if they were supposed to run it smoothly and cheaper.

Because, back in 2015, the state bought 111 cars for District Chairpersons. Therefore, this sort of enterprise happens on near-regular basis. Just as the state bought cars for the CPC in Parliament in this calendar year. So, this is a business the state knows and deals with a lot.

The special thing about this, is that service deliver is important with a car. Not with a mandate or actual factual work that the RDCs do. The Residential District Commanders, the ones overseeing and oversight of the government works in the districts. This is 65 cars and in total, that is 50% of the appointed RDCs. This means there is 130 districts who has RDCs by what the Mbayo states. That means the state lacks funds, manpower and appointed leadership for 5 districts alone. Which is a rare move.

The President has the opportunity to give broader mandate, to give funds and opportunities to the RDCs to actually do more. But thinking a car would make a big difference is naive. As they have the same mandate, the same lacking structure and weak local government. Just today, the President and the state gives state officials cars, instead of building viable institutions.

The state is acting like a car dealership, not a governing institution nor following up on obligations in the districts. This is a cheap ploy for poor districts, for lacking funds and for not investing in all the created micro local-government units, which is now 135 districts and so-on. Where the RDCs and others has supervision and mandates to work. Therefore, there should be more than cars and more than a quick fix, which this is and nothing else.

To buy 65 cars will not fix the districts, it will only give for a short amount of time, mobility for some few persons in association with the RDCs. It doesn’t make the roads being built, schools being furnished nor town halls run properly. That is done over budgets, policies and actual governing being done.

To govern is an art and giving away cars isn’t building a nation, it is only cheap fix. You don’t give an alcoholic an beer, you take them to rehab and stops the availability to beer. Instead, here the state gives another beer and hope that it doesn’t catch on. Sooner or later, these cars will have a breakdown. As the cars are hit by driving miles upon miles every year.

Therefore, this isn’t it. Other than a rundown, over used idea, which isn’t scratching the surface. Peace.

Bank of Uganda: Monetary Policy Statement for October 2019 (07.10.2019)

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Uganda: Fresh report states that the debt-service has grown 129% within one financial year!

 

The Republic of Uganda’s economy is really reeling, it cannot be sustainable as the Government of Uganda is growing their debt like there is no tomorrow. While the fiscal growth is substantially lower than their rate of debt-service. As the growth of debt combined with lacking growth to substantiate the shortfall.

In addition, with the knowledge of added expenses, growing shortfall of funds in the upcoming Financial Year of 2019/20 and the election year of FY 2020/21. There will be more add-ons on the need for debt service, as the state already had loans outstanding, which the grace period ends and the debt-service begins on. Therefore, the amount of loans will transpire even more, than what is in this report. The endless cycle of debt and growth of it, is worrying, as well, as the state thinks that the magical wand of oil-money will clear this debt. Even as the first operational oil field and such has been postponed yet again.

Just look!

“The total Government of Uganda external debt service by end of FY 2017/18 amounted to US$275.75 million, which was an increment of l29% compared to US$120.62 million in FY 2016/17” (…) “Debt service of Uganda’s external debt is on the rise and outstripping growth of the country’s income, currently at 6%. This poses risks for future debt repayments, especially as the country continues to acquire external debt at less concessional terms, especially to finance the oil development programme” (P: 6-7, 2019)

“It follows that as interest rates increase, the debt service obligations of Government also increases. The rise in external debt interest costs attests to the fact the government is increasingly contracting non-concessional debt, which will increase the repayment burden” (P: 24, 2019)

“However, this may not be the most likely scenario, as most projects have been discounted and some excluded in the macroeconomic framework. With the development of the NDP III, additional project and other pipeline project related to the oil developments and other infrastructure, will increase the financing requirement of government in the medium term. The inclusion of the above projects will re-classify Uganda from low risk of debt distress to moderate risk of debt distress or high risk if the export shocks materialize. A downgrade would have significant implications for the program with the IMF, where Uganda’s credit risk rating will worsen; implying that accessibility of nonconcessional financing will be limited. This will limit credit to Uganda to only concessional and grants financing.” (P: 28, 2019)

You don’t need to smart about it, as the state has bigger budgets with higher shortfall in the economy, combined with debt service and higher interest payments on the growing amount of loans. You know sooner or later, the economy will tank, as the fiscal responsibility is taken for granted and that fresh funds are lacking, because these are taken out of the economy to finance the payments of the old debts. Instead of generating growth and actually naturally grow the economy, by spending and investing as a state. The money is taken away to service debt, instead of building the state. That is what they are doing and at a alarming rate. Peace.

Reference:

NEC1-19 – ‘REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ECONOMY ON THE STATE OF INDEBTEDNESS, GRANTS AND GUARANTEES’ June 2019, Parliament of Uganda