Opinion: Dr. Wagacha undress the debt trap, that Jubilee have created!

“[Credit is a system whereby] a person who can’t pay, gets another person who can’t pay, to guarantee that he can pay.” – Charles Dickens

We have seen it for a while, as the Kenyan government have spent much more, than they are actually collecting revenue and getting grants. The Jubilee government have not only siphoned funds, but borrowed funds like a drunk sailor. This administration have not considered the implications of the loans and the deficit, they have created.

Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto has ordered this ship, it has been known. The Grand Corruption by this government alone has made huge losses. Jubilee knows this and the ones that has followed this government. Have seen it with time and discussed it.

Now suddenly Dr. Wagacha says this:

“ Dr Mbui Wagacha, a policy analyst who left the advisory role in the top office last December after five years, says Parliament has looked the other way as the National Treasury gave the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) unrealistic revenue targets only to fall back on debt and expenditure cuts. “We borrowed so much and our headroom for debt has narrowed … there was an over-commitment to capital borrowing and that has left us with narrow headroom for debt,” said Dr Wagacha. “If you look at 2011/2012, we were spending only about 11 per cent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) directly to repay debt. We are now talking about 57 per cent of GDP in public debt.””(Alushula, 2019).

We know that the state has issues, when the Jubilee are putting austerity measures given by the International Monetary Funds (IMF). While the Jubilee are taking more debt, taking more infrastructure grants and loans, as well as the state is not having the revenue to cover the deficit that has created. This is why the state is paying more of the GDP now, compared to what they did when Kenyatta and Ruto took power.

The Jubilee government could have carried it differently. The Jubilee have used the Eurobonds twice to get fiscal stimulus, but it was also a loan. Therefore, the Jubilee will have to repay those. Just like it has to do with the Chinese loans for the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and others, loans that the state has absorbed within the years of Jubilee.

Dr. Wagacha is speaking the truth, but the state has taken the Kool-Aid. Will it find a way to move forward wisely or will it continue the negative cycle of loans to pay-off the old loans, instead of finding revenue and creating a healthy economy. If not just living within its means and not pushing for more, than you can pay for without credit. Peace.

Reference:

Patrick Alushula – ‘Ex-Uhuru adviser says debt may affect growth in Kenya’ 05.02.2019, link: https://www.nation.co.ke/lifestyle/smartcompany/Ex-Uhuru-adviser-says-debt-may-affect-growth-in-Kenya/1226-4967482-b1tau4z/index.html

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Burundi: The Senate starts moving the offices to Gitega!

19th January 2019 – PNB loaded these trucks with furniture’s.

The movement of Capital in Burundi is winding up, as President Pierre Nkurunziza wants a more peaceful to continue his reign from. As the place of studies and such, which haven’t had the infrastructure nor the development are not stationed to be the political capital of the Republic.

CNDD-FDD and Nkrunziza are now taking steps to get things ready in Gitega. From the 18^th January until 2^nd February 2019, the various offices of the Senate are moving as per order on the 16^th January 2019. That was ordered by the Senat President Renovat Niyonzima. On the 19^th January, the PNB started moving furniture on the 19^th January 2019. Therefore, the move is happening and not just orders.

That is why it is clear, that the move of capital is happening. Surely sooner or later, the CNDD-FDD and Nkurunziza will ask for funds, loans and grants to develop the Capital. As there are not as much in Gitega compared to Bujumbura. Even if Gitega is the Capital of Kings, there is hard to compare the places in buildings and in infrastructure.

What is really special about the move, there are no budget or direct plan on how to do it within a month. Just dates on movement. You can wonder about housing and the places to stay for the ones working at the Senate and the Senators themselves. Just because the PNB starts driving away furniture, the placement and space in buildings has to be cleared or made. In a month is very short time limit, especially with no budget. Meaning needed funding for making Gitega the Capital.

We have to see how this continues, see if the IMF or World Bank will fix funds or even the CNDD-FDD will ask for viable funds through loans in the China Exim Bank. That would be natural for them, as the expenses of the transfer of the political capital there. Because, the state should have finance and funds ready to cover expenses. But they only had a vote and now they have a paper sheet for the move. Therefore, the plans are limited and the President have fixated on a more peaceful living in Gitega, than in Bujumbura.

This here looks a personal gift to him and his will. Not looking like a viable move. More of the same and more living like almighty king he is.

President Nkurunziza thinks this is wise, but really making him look foolish. Even as the Gitega is the historical town of Kings. Still, it doesn’t mean it yet is fit for the prospects of housing all parts of the political sphere of the Republic. That should been planned over a long time and also had sustainable funds for moving. However, this seems forced and unplanned. Peace.

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The 200 Shillings of Doom: Tumwebaze mixed messages concerning the Social Media Tax!

We knew that the statements of 2018, as the loyal ICT Minister Frank Tumwebaze hadn’t done his due diligence, as the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoPED) issued a Social Media Tax last year after President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni wrote a letter to the Ministry of Finance asking for the opportunity to tax this.

That has no been done over the last few months, but as the realization of the effects are coming. The forewarning of CSBAG and others wasn’t listen to. I wrote that it lacked due diligence of the tax in June 2018 and today. As I open Daily Monitor and seeing that Frankie Boy has changed his ways. He has opened his eyes and seeing what some of us saw all along. As the cost of content, the cost of using social media and that this has ensured that it is less viable. Since, its the elites who can use it, but the lower level civil servants cannot afford to be online. That was natural, that the 200 shillings per day would be taken directly of the plate and also evaporate funds for investment within the Republic. It is a negative tax, and therefore, naturally have reverse effect, than what the state promised when they levied it.

Tumwebaze statement in July 2018:

“When Ministry of Finance is borrowing, we, the Parliament and civil society are grilling them for borrowing. But when we say this is a sector that has grown in the economy so let’s get a bit of it, let’s get Shs. 6,000 from every holder of a smartphone consuming OTTs, what production capacity will it stifle?” (…) “Is USD 1,4 too much for a citizen to contribute to tax yet you have money to buy a smartphone, minimumly at Shs. 300,000 that is data enabled, and you load bundles of over shs. 30,000? Logically it doesn’t make sense” (Frank Tumwebaze, 17.07.2018).

Tumwebaze statemetn in January 2019:

“The committee chaired by Annet Nyakecho said Over The Top tax seems to negatively affect the consumption of ICT services and products. In response, ICT Minister, Mr Frank Tumwebaze admitted that the tax is has had adverse effects on the sector. He said they were “hoodwinked” by their counterparts in the Finance Ministry that the introduction of the tax on the basis that it would widen the country’s revenue base” (Ssebuliba, 2019).

ICT Minister Tumwebaze was so positive and thinking this was the future. This was how to widen the tax-base, but instead. It has as expected made the usage of Social Media expensive. Which means also there is lack of funds for the ones operating within the Social Media and making Online Businesses. This is both happening because of the hard hitting taxes on Social Media, but also the Mobile Money Tax. Both taxes has both the Mobile Money Industry and the ICT development, as they are both having less activity and less usage. Which is natural, when the costs are going up.

The ICT Minister should have known this before speaking so warm about it. Any tax are taking money out of the system. The 200 shillings of doom is clear. The state could have listen to the advice, but didn’t open the ears to it.

In June 30 2018, Daily Monitor reported this: “Civil society organisations have accused the government of trying to stifle debate online with this tax, while others like the Civil society Budget Advocacy group CSBAG, say the tax will have a negative impact on a business.” (Hinamundi, 2018).

So, if the ICT Minister Tumwebaze could have known and stopped this. They could have done the right thing and not continued this path. Instead they have hurt the industry, because they are all blindly following the orders of the President. That is what the state did and they levied the 200 shillings of doom, as it was anticipated by anyone else. Than, the authorities itself. Peace.

Reference:

Samuel Ssebuliba – ‘Parliament orders assessment on impact of social media tax’ 18.01.2019, link: https://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Parliament-orders-assessment-impact-social-media-tax/688334-4940312-rph8g3z/index.html

Collins Hinamundi – ‘How government will collect the new social media tax’ 30.07.2018, link: https://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/How-government-will-collect-new-social-media-tax/688334-4639596-juy8n3z/index.html

ZADHR Press release: Hundreds shot, tens estimated dead in rampant rights violations across Zimbabwe (15.01.2019)

15 January 2019, 2300 Hrs

The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights (ZADHR) continues to receive disturbing reports of gross human rights violations across Zimbabwe.

ZADHR has attended to a total of one hundred and seven patients by 1600 hrs of the 15th of January 2019. The injuries ranged from extensive deglouving wounds secondary to gunshot wounds, gunshot wounds in the head, penetrating abdominal trauma and blunt trauma. The majority of the cases were concentrated in Bulawayo, Harare ( particularly Mabvuku and Chitungwiza), Karoi and Kadoma.

ZADHR has also received unconfirmed reports of several deaths across Zimbabwe. One person is alleged to have been run over by a security personnel truck in Harare, and one person who was declared dead on arrival at a medical facility in Kadoma. Reports of other deaths in Epworth and parts of Harare and Chitungwiza are also still being verified. ZADHR estimates the total number of deaths by end of yesterday to be in the region of five to ten casualties. It has been difficult to verify this information due to the internet blackout in Zimbabwe. (ZADHR will release another statement once all tallies from their members are authoritatively collated)

There has also been confirmed reports of retributive torture, beatings and displacements in Mabvuku, Chitungwiza and Kadoma throughout the night of fourteen January 2019. ZADHR is aware of four patients who were scheduled to undergo major surgery for limb saving procedures, penetrating abdominal trauma and neurosurgical procedures in Harare alone. Many patients also had sharpnel and foreign bodies from live ammunition.

ZADHR condemns these gross human rights violations, the use of live ammunition on protesters and any use of torture as a tool to punish protesters. ZADHR also calls upon the authorities to urgently allow those who have been arrested in multiple dragnets cast across the country to receive urgent medical care. Hundreds of injured people have not been attended to as they can’t travel to medical institutions or as they fear arrests or possible victimization.

ZADHR also calls upon all parties to excersice restraint and express their right to protest in non violent and peaceful ways. ZADHR calls for the international community (SADC, AU , UN) to swiftly intervene in the Zimbabwe crisis before the tense situation escalates into a humanitarian disaster.

ZADHR continues to provide urgent medical care to those in need as a result of these disturbances and is reachable via WhatsApp, calls, sms on its hotline 0777604610.

ZADHR INFORMATION DEPARTMENT

My Letter to President Emmerson Mnangagwa: Time to ACT!

14^th January 2018, Oslo

Dear Sir, His Excellency President Emmerson Mnangagwa!

Today, I am writing you in haste, as your on a two-week foreign trip. After you have pushed your Republic into destruction. As the public, the citizens and the economy cannot last the measures you have put on it. This is what has happened, the public is outrages, the Security Forces has attacked the public and massive destruction.

Also, what is also seen is big blame game on Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and MDC-Alliance. That was Clock-Work Mr. President, which is not creating any goodwill or making the Republic any better.

It is a natural defence mechanism, but it doesn’t make it right. ZANU-PF and your brigades, comrades should be more careful with their language, this being ZBC or the Herald. Therefore, the state media and ZANU-PF should handle the situation with a bit more care.

Mr. President, the acts of violence, state sanctioned violence, the use of guns, the harassment of journalists, the mass arrests are not a good move from the state. Neither is the looting, the burning of houses, party offices and so on. We also know that someone tried to burn down the Harvest House or the MDC-Alliance HQ as well.

Therefore, Mr. President, we know all parties in this crisis has been hit. The ZANU-PF has seen lots of losses today. Dozens of businesses has been hit. Many people have been shot, even some killed, but hard to get verified numbers. However, Mr. President, each of these people is one to many. Each person shot, each person died on your watch Mr. President. Even if at this moment, Vice-President or Acting President Constantino Chiwenga because your abroad.

It is time to ask yourself Mr. President, can you contain people’s anger? Can you find fruitful ways to stop the furious attitude shown today? Can the Police Officers and Soldiers restrain themselves, meeting this anger?

Because, Mr. President, they have all acted on your orders and on your taxes. They have acted on the RTGS, the new levies or the new exercise duty on fuel, which has sky-rocketed the price on that. The fuel prices went over the moon over night. It would create a reaction, Mr. President, I think the state wasn’t ready for it. Neither was the opposition. The ZANU-PF was never ready for this. They are just trying to settle the score and silence. But the anger will still be there. Because, the state and you Mr. President, never patched up the hurt.

You have put salt on the wounds, you have hurt the public, you have crippled the economy and given no proper solution. The ZANU-PF, which you rule has shown. The economy haven’t become any better, but only worse. No signs of positives anywhere on the horizon.

Mr. President, you should think about the people, you should think about how your actions affect them. The PFee have ruled for over three decades and had the reign, you could have ensured this from not happening, but the party let this happen.

Mr. President, if you do care. Time to act. Time to make a difference. Not flying in a luxury jet across Eastern Europe as a King. But come back home and settle the difference. Face the music and act upon the issues, that every single citizen is feeling right now.

Mr. Mnangagwa, you have been apart of the elite for so long, seems like you have forgotten the plights of the citizens, the lack of foreign currency and the wages concerning the rises of costs of living. There is time Mr. President to act upon this, not put more plight, but finds ways to ensure citizens are more safer day-to-day, not create a wasteland of uncertainty and lack of basic commodities.

President, this is your mantle, this your role to play. Mr. President, it is not the cards you have on your hands, but how you play them. Time for you to man up and face the consequences. This is also, actions related to your actions and your advisors saying it is a good idea. However, it creates a national crisis. The Republic have to act. The Republic have to find solutions, not only put more fuel on the fire. Right now, that is what you do. Instead of finding a way out, your burning the bridges.

Best Regards

Writer of Minbane

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Zimbabwe: Hiking fuel prices will touch all parts of life!

Yesterday, out of the blue, the President and his people said they would hold a Press Conference. This happen as President Emmerson Mnangagwa announced the spiking or doubling of fuel prices, as the state is struggling with the dollar shortage. This is happening as the effects of RTGS Taxes and the hurting economy in general. As the black-market bond-notes exchange rates and lack of currency in general. This is all making the financial market worse.

So, of today, there are long lines of cars going to petrol stations trying to get fuel. The videos of it is online and shown to the world. Mnangagwa statement came late at night on a Saturday and on Sunday, the results of this has occurred. As businesses are challenged, the Unions are reacting and the public are bitten by it too. This is hurting all, everything will become more expensive and the lie of 1:1 exchange between the Zimbabwe Bond-Notes and United States Dollars (USD). Therefore, the statement yesterday proves the added expenses on ordinary lives.

ZCTU Statement:

“After wide consultations, the ZCTU General Council resolved to call for a nation wide STAY AWAY with effect from midnight today following the insensitive and provocative increase of fuel price by the President of Zimbabwe. 2) Workers have been facing serious hardships as a result of the general astronomical price increases since last year against stagnant salaries. The fuel increase added more misery to the suffering working class of Zimbabwe both in formal and informal sectors. The action will be embarked on an incremental basis & include other forms of actions that will be advised in due. There is nothing else pushing the workers besides the starvation & hardships afflicting every working class household. Think about your family & do the right thing” (Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, 13.01.2019).

Some people are blaming the sanctions, other like me is also looking into the added taxes done by this administration late last year. As the costs of currency has gone up, as the RTGS and the transactions are added expenses. Also, the reality of lack of currency itself, as the foreign exchange has hit the workforce of the state. There been numerous strikes, there been plenty of businesses closing and also empty shelves. Therefore, the stagnation and slow destruction of the economy without a currency. Is really hitting the common folk. Who knows what rate the inflation is at, but it must be hitting hard.

Because we know the hardships hits the citizens, not only the prices of fuel is doubled over night, but the amount of fuel you can buy has been cut in half or even less. That has even been stated by companies like Redan Coupon (Pvt.) Limited, who came out with a public statement. Showing the effects on all of them customers.

We know this is fixed prices from the government, as the President did on Live Press Conference, telling the public about the prices yesterday. The Herald wrote this about it yesterday: “Zera said the prices which were implemented recently were in line with Statutory Instruments 20 and 100 enacted in 2015. Zera notified members of the public that uel stations were at liberty to sell the commodity at lower prices “depending on their trading advantages.”” (Farirai Machivenyika – ‘Govt clears air on fuel prices’ 12.01.2019).

We are seeing clearly, that the authorities had worked together before the doubling of fuel prices happen. As the President stated. They know it will affect all parts of life, make everything more expensive. Everything in the Republic will be touched and the costs of life, will sky-rocket naturally. Not looking forward to see the inflation numbers and how it affects the prices on food and basics in general.

Also, expect more strikes and demonstrations, as the costs of living is hitting all parts of life. Peace.

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