Opinion: The Liberation Day can only be celebrated with Mzee and with no one else!

The NRM Day, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) day, the Liberation Day. The day that the National Resistance Army liberated Uganda. Are in the making and being prepared so that the President can hold his speech and be crowded by his soldiers, his Crime Preventers and who ever he has bought out from obscurity in the recent months.

So the news today, was rare or unique. It is more of the same. That other people are not allowed. It is just like when he hold the State of Nation Address, all channels and broadcast on TV and Radio had to send his speech. The same can surely also happen in this instance. Because the only man who is clearly free and can be opinionated is Museveni. The rest have to follow his suit and his orders. The State House commands. So that the President and his men, are now putting orders on how they are celebrating the 32^nd Liberation Day isn’t surprising. It follows a pattern of control from above, from His Excellency, who cannot be that excellent, when he has to micro-manage every detail and get everyone in-line for every event. Every function and every order, has to be rubber-stamped by him. It’s just his despotic mind, who speaks democracy, but orders everyone around and wants everybody to accept his hollow mind. That is just the way it is, so when Daily Monitor says this today:

“The government has cautioned the opposition and any other groups against any plot to hold parallel liberation day celebrations. The caution was sounded by the minister for presidency Esther Mbayo during a press conference at media centre ahead of the celebrations slated for Friday January 26, 2018. She said every time government organizes a national function, there are groups that threaten to organized parallel arrangements. She said this will not be tolerated this time round. “I am just warning whoever is organizing to stage a parallel function to desist from it because the long arm of the law will catchup with him,” minister Mbayo said. She said there will be only one national function accepted that day and it will be held at Boma grounds in Arua Municipality. “So whoever wants to stage parallel arrangements should stand warned,” Mbayo said” (Jumbe, 2018).

This is the memo, the gist and the story. That the Minister Mbayo is warning and coming with stern signals of how to behave. The public can only have one key celebration, nothing in Kololo or on another field. The only one matter at Boma Ground in Arua. The rest has to cease, where the President is, is the only place to be liberated, the others have to follow orders and be under the spell of the President. No freedom, no celebration in Kampala, Jinja or Mbarara, no no, only celebrate in Arua at Boma Ground.

The Liberation Day celebration only matters at the function of the President. If he isn’t there, it doesn’t matter. It is not about liberation, if the supposed liberator isn’t there. The kingpin of the NRA has to be at the function if it supposed to have any value. President Museveni have to show up and be graceful, spill his beans and everyone got to listen to his wisdom. If not, they are not liberated. The liberation was for him and his men, not for the republic. The people was just tools for his liberation. Therefore, a party is only a party, if he started or joined the party. Peace.

Reference:

Jumbe, Benjamin – ‘No parallel liberation day celebrations shall be allowed – govt’ (26.01.2018) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/No-parallel-celebrations-shall-be-allowed-govt/688334-4276634-ioin6/index.html)

Kenya: Misleading Media Reports on Regulatory Tool for Curbing Counterfeit Devices on Mobile Networks (18.02.2017)

30th NRA/NRM Liberation Day with the “First National Address” – On the Parliamentary Steps on the 26. January 1986 (Transcript of the Speech)

Today is the Liberation day after the Bush-War in 1986. That led to the fall of Milton Obote, Yusuf Lule and Tito Okello. After years in the bush and using the guns and being armed to their teeth and after that actually run Uganda; that happens after losing the election in 1980 as a independent with the Uganda Patriotic Movement. He lost to Sam Kutesa his now Foreign Affairs Minister and loyal ally. Because he claimed the 1980s elections where UPC and Milton Obote won, he went to the bush because the system could not be fixed in peaceful ways. Today is the 26th January in remembrance of this and show respect to the start of 30 year reign of power. Here is a transcript of the speech he had that day. If that is to long I have the cut video clip first that can show the glimpse of what he was trying to say. Take a look and read if you will!

Here is the speech he held on the NRA/M liberation and after the bush-war in front of the Parliament on the 26th January 1986:
NO ONE should think that what is happening today is a mere change of guard: it is a fundamental change in the politics of our country. In Africa, we have seen so many changes that change, as such, is nothing short of mere turmoil. We have had one group getting rid of another one, only for it to turn out to be worse than the group it displaced. Please do not count us in that group of people: the National Resistance Movement is a clear-headed movement with clear objectives and a good membership.

Of course, we may have some bad elements amongst us – this is because we are part and parcel to Ugandan society as it is, and we may, therefore, not be able completely to guard against infiltration by wrong elements.

It is, however, our deliberate policy to ensure that we uplift the quality of politics in our country. We are quite different from the previous people in power who encouraged evil instead of trying to fight it.

You may not be familiar with our program, since you did not have access to it while we were in the bush so I shall outline a few of its salient points;

The first point in our program is the restoration of democracy. The people of Africa-the people of Uganda-are entitled to democratic government. It is not a favour from any government: it is the right of the people of Africa to have democratic government. The sovereign power in the land must be the population, not the government. The government should not be the master, but the servant of the people.

In our liberated zones, the first thing we started with was the election of village Resistance Committees. My mother, for instance, cannot go to parliament; but she can, surely, become a member of a committee so that she, too, can make her views heard. We have, therefore, set up village, muluka, gombolola and district committees.

Later we shall set up a national parliament directly elected by the people. This way we shall have both committee and parliamentary democracy. We don’t want to elect people who will change sides once they are in parliament. If you want to change sides, you must go back and seek the mandate of the people who elected you.

Democracy
Some of these points are for the future, but right now I want to emphasis that the first point in our political program is democracy for the people of Uganda. It is a birthright to which all the people of Uganda are entitled.
The committees we have set up in these zones have a lot of power. You cannot, for instance, join the army or the police without being cleared by the village committee.

You must get a recommendation from the people in your village to say that you are not a rogue. Hence, the soldiers who are joining us from other armies will have to be referred back to their villages for recommendation. The same applies to the police.

Suppose, for instance, that we want to recruit some 500 soldiers from the District of Rakai and say 10,000 youths in the area apply to join. If 5,000 of those are cleared by their area committees as people of good character, the selecting military team will choose the most physically fit from among those, and we shall end up with an army that is both of good character and in good physical condition. This is an example of some of the work to be done by the village committees.

Another important aspect of the committees is that they should serve as a citizens’ intelligence system. If I go to address a rally in Semuto, Rape-ka or Nakaseke, I shall first meet the muluka and gombolola committees in the area. They will tell me whether the muluka chiefs are thieves, or the hospital personnel are selling drugs, or whether there are soldiers in the area who are misbehaving. They are thus able to act as watchdogs for the population and guard against the misuse of power.

The second point in our program is the security of person and property. Every person in Uganda must be absolutely secure to live wherever he or she wishes. Any individual or any group of persons who threatens the security of our people must be smashed without mercy.

Security
The people of Uganda should only die from natural causes that are beyond our control, but not at the hands of fellow citizens who continue to walk the length and breadth of our land freely. When we were in Nairobi during the peace talks, it was a very painful experience sitting in a room with criminals across the table. 1 was advised that being a leader, you have to be diplomatic.

This prompted me to ask: “But does diplomacy apply to criminals as well?” to which the answer was, “Yes”. I saw then that the whole process was a farce. We tried peacefully to push the case that the Amin elements, and people like Bazilio Okello, who had killed people in broad daylight, must be excluded from government.

Our voice, however, was a lonely one because there were so many pressures from the International community which is interested only in trade. They do not care how many skeletons we have in Uganda: all they care about is for the road to be opened so that their goods can have free passage. We, therefore, made our position very clear: we were not going to take part in any government which included and Involved criminals. Unfortunately these people believed they had tricked us. Tito Okello, for instance, came back saying that my signing the agreement showed that they had removed the teeth from the salambwa (poisonous snake).

Our position, however, has always been very clear. If you play tricks with us, we shall play tricks with you; if you are honest with us, we shall be honest with you; if you are violent against us, we shall be violent against you. We are people who pay others in their own currency and we never use cowardly tactics. When I was in the bush, I had a lot of pressure from people who said that we should assassinate people like Obote, Muwanga and Bazilio.

Against assassination
I disagreed because I argued that when you assassinate people like that, you turn them into martyrs and heroes. What you need is to develop enough strength to enable you to sweep that kind of garbage to where it belongs: on the dung-heap of history. Why should anybody bother to kill small people like Bazilio? You may kill Bazilio Okello but you will be left with many other Bazilios.

Therefore, the security of the people of Uganda is their right and not a favour bestowed by any regime. No regime has a right to kill any citizen of this country, or to beat any citizen at a road block. We make it clear to our soldiers that if they abuse any citizen, the punishment they will receive will teach them a lesson. As for killing people – if you kill a citizen, you yourself will be killed.

During our struggle, we executed five soldiers of the National Resistance Army for killing people in Bulemezi, Ngoma and Fort Portal. One of these soldiers had killed a doctor in order to steal his money.

What, on the other hand, has been happening in Kampala? Recently, people were massacred in Luwero and a high-powered delegation was sent there: you know these so-called high-powered delegations led by Excellency’s and honorables, etc. Personally, I do not like being called ‘Excellency’.

People in Bulemezi call me Yoweri or Mzee wa Kazi. Now, these Excellency’s, and honorable ministers and high-ranking military personnel, and what-have-you went to Luwero. Can you imagine what they did? We were told that they had transferred the person who had killed the people in Luwero to another station! Can you imagine? Someone kills 100, 50 or even two people and you say you have transferred him to another area? It was suggested that the solution to some of our problems would be for Kampala to be completely demilitarized.

Disciplining soldiers
So I asked: “Where are you going to take these criminal soldiers? Even if you take them to a national park they will kill the animals there!” The solution, therefore, is to put criminal soldiers where they belong: in prison.

The third point in our program is the question of the unity of our country. Past regimes have used sectarianism to divide people along religious and tribal lines. But why should religion be considered a political matter? Religious matters are between you and your god. Politics is about the provision of roads, water, drugs, in hospitals and schools for children.

Case for unity
Take the road from here, Parliament Buildings, to Republic House. This road is so bad that if a pregnant woman travels on it, I am sure she will have a miscarriage! Now, does that road harm only Catholics and spare Protestants? Is it a bad road only for Moslems and not for Christians, or for Acholis and not for Baganda? That road is bad and it is bad for everyone.

All the users of that road should have one common aspiration: to have it repaired. How do you become divided on the basis of religion or tribe if your interests, problems and aspirations are similar? Don’t you see that people who divide you are only using you for their own interests not connected with that road? They are simply opportunists who have no program and all they do is work on cheap platforms of division because they have nothing constructive to offer the people.

Our Movement is strong because it has solved the problem of division: we do not tolerate religious and tribal divisions in our Movement, or divisions along party lines such as UPC, DP, UPM and the like. Everyone is welcome on an equal basis. That is why you find that when our army goes to Buganda, the people there call it:” amagye gaffe, abaana baffe”. When it goes to the West, it is: “amahe gaitu, abaana baitu”: which means that wherever the NRA goes, it is called ‘our army, our children’. Recently, Buloba was captured by our army, and the commander in charge of the group was an officer called Okecho. He comes from Pakwach in West Nile.

Therefore, the so-called division between the north and south is only in people’s heads. Those who are still hoping to use it are going to be disappointed. They ought to dig a large grave for such aspirations and bury them. Ma-sindi was captured by our soldiers led by Peter Kerim: he, too, is from West Nile. Dr. Ronald Batta here, who is from Madi, has been our Director of Medical Services for all these years in the bush.

‘Angry’ Obote
Obote tried to propagate the idea that there was a division between the Bantus and the Nilotics and that if the Bantus took over, the Nilotics would be wiped out. We have, however exposed him. Whenever, we captured soldiers from Ac noli, Lango and elsewhere, we would treat them well and then release them.

Obote would be surprised and he would ask: “Were you really captured? Did you see Museveni? Were you really not beaten?” Once we captured the police commander of Masindi, a man called Gala.

I talked to him and another man called Epigo, also from Masindi. When we released them and Epigo got back to Obote, Obote did not like what Epigo had to say: that the National Resistance Army was not a tribal army as the Obote government had been trying to make out. So Obote locked Epigo up in Luzira Maximum Security Prison because he did not want to hear the truth about our Movement and Army.

There is, in philosophy, something called obscurantism, a phenomenon where ideas are deliberately obscured so that what is false appears to be true and vice versa. We in the NRM are not interested in the politics of obscurantism: we want to get to the heart of the matter and find out what the problem is. Being a leader is like being a medical doctor. A medical doctor must diagnose his patient’s disease before he can prescribe treatment.

Similarly, a political leader must diagnose correctly the ills of society. A doctor who does not diagnose his patient’s disease adequately is nothing but a quack.

In politics we have also got quacks – and Uganda has had a lot of political quacks over the past two decades or so. I also want to talk about co-operation with other countries, especially in our region. One of our weaknesses in Africa is a small market because we don’t have enough people to consume what we produce.

Regional cooperation
Originally we had an East African market but it was messed up by the Excellency’s and Honorable ministers. It will be a cardinal point in our program to ensure that we encourage co-operation in economic matters, especially in transport and communication within the East African region.

This will enable us to develop this area. We want our people to be able to afford shoes. The Honorable Excellency who is going to the United Nations in executive jets, but has a population at home of 90 per cent walking barefoot, is nothing but a pathetic spectacle. Yet this Excellency may be busy trying to compete with Reagan and Gorbachev to show them that he, too, is an Excellency. These are some of the points in our political program. As time goes on, we shall expand more on them.

Last appeal
To conclude, I am appealing to those people who are trying to resist us to come and join us because they will be integrated. They should not waste their time trying to fight us because they cannot defeat us.

If they could not defeat us when there were just 27 of us with 27 guns, how can they defeat this army which you saw here? They cannot defeat us, first of all, because we have a correct line in politics which attracts everyone. Secondly, we have a correct line of organization. Thirdly, our tactics are correct.

We have never made a mistake either in strategy or tactical calculation. I am, therefore, appealing to these people not to spill more blood, especially of the young men who are being misled by older people who should know better.

Afterthought: 

I think this is enough. And it is celebration of 30 years. I will not be smooth, but rather silent. Because it seems like President Museveni forget his cause, if it ever was his cause and to make a democratic change. Even if he used a long time to give a multi-party system. Still his rigging turns as bad or worse then Obote II. That means that after 30 years they are doing the same thing they fought against. Which must be an ironic way of celebrating 30 years of power, with the same leader that held this speech. A speech that was powerful and if truthful and the power ate the man. Then he forgot why he came to power. There are many theories, but the man who took power talked a way of democratic behaviour, but now is more totalitarian and police-state then the state he wished to build in 1986. Peace.

Convoy of the People’s President and journalist’s harassed by Oulanyah’s men

Today the FDC Presidential Flag-Bearer we’re on his way to rallies in Northern Uganda. We’re they didn’t get peace because of the Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanyah.

The other issue for the clashes between the candidates was that Oulanyah we’re having a rally when Dr. Kizza Besigye wer’e supposed to have a campaign rally in Alalogi Sub-County. Will elaborate more on that…

While this was happening the NBS TV crew was attacked by the men of Oulanyah. Also the NTV men were busy and the one running was NTV Camera-man Galiwango. This attack on journalists following the FDC Convoy was in Agago. The reports say that some of the attacks on the journalist was not only controlled by the Mr. Oulanyah and goup of locals at Aketket primary school Alalogi sub-county, Amoro-county Gulu district. Journalsts attached are Ronald Galiwango NTV, Anthony Palapande NBS and Francis Tumwekwasize freelance journalist. All camera men the incident happened when journalists were covering the scuffle between FDC supporters Deputy speaker Jacob Olanya. It’s alleged by FDC mobilisers that Jacob Olanya had occupied the same venue FDC had organized to hold the rally. When the woman MP Guru district Betty Acan to find out why they occupied the venue. Olanya ordered his body guard to block her. Acan also claimed Olanyah’s rally was illegal because of the Electoral Commission have suspended the rallies for Members of Parliament. Because she said so, that is why the havoc and madness happened in the area.

At the same time there we’re already before the convoy was coming to Gulu, the Gulu Hospital we’re shut and closed down so they would not a visit from the opposition presidential candidate. 

They did also attack the FDC-Supporters. This can’t be justified. Another day in Uganda with election violence; wish it didn’t happen especially not into the Christmas season, but for the political candidates and their henchmen that doesn’t matter.

Peace!

Ugandan National Development Plan II – Outtakes and Quotes from the Plan

SECOND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2015/16 – 2019/20 (NDPII):

“A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years”.

This here piece will be the important and special words and numbers from this report that has had a release date the same as budget for financial year 2015/2016. This is important to address to show what the draft of 3^rd March 2015 is saying. If the numbers has changed then the government should drop and show the world the updated NDPII. But that hasn’t surfaced anywhere. Therefore I will drop the numbers and quotes I do have. It will be a long piece. But this is a big plan with enormous sums of monies in play. So with that play you got show what the government really want to do. I have already showed the dream-piece or press release earlier this week. So this here will see if that has changed or not. The pages where the quotes are from are not direct pages because the page number is different in an pdf so the empty pages also get counted. Just to explain that.

Basic of the Plan:

“This National Development Plan (NDPII) is the second in a series of six 5-year Plans aimed at achieving Uganda Vision 2040” (…) “The Plan also seeks to leverage opportunities and honour obligations presented by emerging developments at the national, regional (East African Community (EAC), and the Africa Agenda 2063), and global levels (the Post 2015 Development Agenda)” (P: 12). “This Plan prioritizes investment in three key growth opportunities including Agriculture; Tourism; Minerals, Oil and Gas as well as two fundamentals: Infrastructure and Human Capital Development” (P: 13).

Certain information:

“The overall government budget deficit level was unstable over the three years, increasing from an overall balance including grants of 2.5 percent of GDP in 2011/12 to 3.4 percent in 2012/13 and to 5.0 percent in 2013/14” (…) “ (…) “Fiscal Deficit: The overall government budget deficit level was unstable over the three years, increasing from an overall balance including grants of 2.5 percent of GDP in 2011/12 to 3.4 percent in 2012/13 and to 5.0 percent in 2013/14.” (…) “Uganda‘s total debt stock rose from UGX11,234.9 billion in 2010/11 to UGX15,939.1 billion in 2012/13 (close to 30 percent of GDP). External debt in 2012/13 was UGX9,893.3 billion (USD3.761 billion). In 2012/13, the total stock of domestic debt stood at 10.4 percent of GDP and 15.8 percent of GDP for the total stock of External debt” (P. 30)

“The Public Debt-to-GDP ratio is currently (2013/14) at 26.14 percent and is projected to peak at about 42 percent in 2019/20, but will remain below the 2013/14 debt strategy threshold of 50 percent throughout the projection period. The debt is however still highly sensitive to non-concessional borrowing, given the current structure of external debt” (P: 32).

“Commercial Banking and Microfinance: As of April 2014, Uganda had 26 licensed commercial banks, with about 544 branches and 5.5 million accounts. The commercial banks hold about 80 percent of the total assets of the financial system and the NSSF holds almost the remaining 20 percent. Savings are still low despite measures to increase savings in the past which included: NSSF improving its return on savings; starting the financial literacy project; URBRA putting in place a framework to enable the informal sector to participate in formal saving schemes; and having SACCO‘s empowered to mobilize savings. SACCOs and MFIs are still experiencing weaknesses in regard to their sustainability, due to the low mobilization of savings from the public, partly due to the over dependence on Government through the Uganda Micro Finance Support Centre and also the fraudulent activities that are a vice to the people‘s savings” (P: 36). “Uganda‘s capital markets are characterized by under capitalization and limited investment opportunities. The Stock Market remains thin, with only 16 companies listed on the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE). Equity markets are poorly developed and only large and well established firms can realistically raise finance on equity markets” (P: 37).

Infrastructure:

“Generally, during the NDPI period the paved road stock increased at an average rate of 123km, lower than the targeted increase of 220km per year” (P: 42). “The rail infrastructure has not changed over the last 5 years. The current rail network comprises of long meter-gauge rail lines, running from the east to the west of the country. Its operations are limited to 640 km between Kampala-Malaba, Kampala–Port Bell, Kampala-Nalukolongo and Tororo-Gulu, while the rest of the network is defunct” (P: 42).

Water:

“Currently, only 2 percent of water is used for production, with only 1 percent of potential irrigable area, where 15,000Ha out of 3,030,000Ha is under formal irrigation. Access to water for livestock at present is estimated at 48.8 percent. The country is increasingly facing a major challenge of prolonged droughts and unexpected floods due to climatic change and variability and is predicted to be water stressed by 2025” (P: 44).

“Financing Health Services: The trend in allocation of funds to the health sector shows an average increase of 20 percent per annum in absolute terms over the past four years of HSSIP. However, the allocation to health as percentage of the total Government budget has reduced from 9.6 percent in 2003/2004 (AHSPR, 2013/14) to 8.6 percent in 2014/15 of the total Government budget much lower than the Abuja Declaration target of 15 percent. This decline has taken place in the midst of rising health care demand and costs due to high population growth” (P: 48-49).

Education:

“Pre-Primary Education: The net enrollment at pre-primary level stands at 10.1percent (EMIS 2013). The provision of pre-primary education continues to be dependent on NGOs, multilateral organizations, and the private sector. This limits access with high disparities between urban and rural areas and among different socio-economical levels” (P: 50).

“Primary Education: The implementation of UPE program since 1997 resulted to increased access from 2.5 million to 8.5 million in 2013. The Pupil/Book ratio has stagnated at an average of 4:1 from 2009 to 2013. The repetition rate reduced from 11.7percent in 2009 to 10.3percent in 2013” (P: 50).

“Secondary Education Sub-sector: The Student/Classroom Ratio (SCR) improved from 68:1 in 2009 to 57:1 in 2013 (EMIS 2013). In 2013, Government owned secondary schools were 1,019 (36 percent), private schools were 1,819 (64 percent). Enrolment in Government secondary schools is 669,225 (49 percent) and it is 693,514 (51 percent) in private schools” (P: 51).

“Higher Education: Total student enrolment in higher education increased by 26percent from 183,985 in 2010 to 232,612 in 2013. Universities continue to enrol the majority (67.3 percent) of post-secondary students (156,747) as of 2013. 60 percent of these are in Public Universities. The private providers cater for the remaining 40 percent” (P: 51).

Governance:

“Economic development and transformation cannot thrive if citizens and investors have no confidence in the rule of law and the justice system” (…) “Good governance provides a setting for the equitable distribution of benefits from economic growth. The Constitution requires that the State promotes balanced development for all regions of the country, between rural and urban areas. It also requires the State to take special measures to develop Uganda‘s least developed areas and to pay special attention to the problems of the marginalized” (P: 57). “The Government of Uganda has adopted the Zero Tolerance‖ to Corruption Policy (2009). The policy correctly recognizes that fighting corruption requires measures beyond legislation and sanctions against corruption. It also requires restoring public sector ethics and creating behavioural change” (P: 60). “However, international surveys, as well as nationally representative data indicate that corruption in Uganda remains a major problem. The East African Bribery Index (EABI, 2013) found that 82 percent of respondents in Uganda described the current level of corruption as high, while 10 percent perceived it to be medium (Transparency International, 2013)” (P: 61).

Oil and Minerals:

“Uganda is destined to benefit from the opportunities explored along the minerals, oil and gas development value chain by addressing a number of challenges and emerging issues involved in minerals and petroleum development” (…) “The petroleum sub-sector is challenged by: inadequate industry infrastructure to support upstream petroleum activities; excitement and high expectations from the general public; lack of skilled manpower, both in the public and the private sectors; inadequate financing; land acquisition for infrastructure development for oil prospecting; and low institutional preparedness; huge capital requirements and technical expertise needed for projects; inconsistent fuel supply leading to scarcity of petroleum products; and absence of a legal framework and associated technical capacity to regulate and minimize the attendant environmental risks” (P: 71).

Cooperatives:

“There are over 6,351 registered SACCOS with savings of over UGX 120 billion, total shareholding of over UGX 25 billion and loans of UGX 80 billion. Cooperatives have also been formed in other sectors of the economy. For example, 2 energy cooperatives are managing the distribution of energy, 10 housing cooperatives are at various stages of development” (P: 76).

Illiteracy:

“The country still faces high levels of illiteracy. According to UNHS 2009/10, 6.9 million Ugandans (5.5 million women & 1 .4 million men) aged 15 years and above are non-literate – unable to read, write and numerate with understanding” (P: 83).

Local Government:

“The financing for local governments has increased from UShs974 billion to over UShs2 trillion today” (…) “In general, LG staffing level is at 56 percent for the districts and 57 percent for the municipal councils – a state that has further constrained service delivery. Rapid urbanization characterized by an increase in urban centers from 28 in 1969 to more than 400 in 2013 (1 City, 22 Municipalities, 174 Town Councils and 207 Town Boards) has been without proper planning and facing declining resources. In addition, governance at LGs characterized by poor coordination between the technical and political leadership especially in newly created districts is hindering service delivery” (…) “This is mainly due to breakdown of social values, peoples‘ expectations of hand-outs from government and CSOs, mistrust of communities towards leaders due to persistent unfulfilled promises” (P: 84-85).

Development:

“Regional Commitments: Protocol on the establishment of the East African Community Monetary Union. Particularly; Article 2 (b) attain the macroeconomic convergence criteria in article 6 (2) and maintain the criteria for at least 3 consecutive years. The criteria include:

1. a) ceiling on headline inflation of 8 percent
2. b) a ceiling on fiscal deficit, including grants, of 3 percent of GDP
3. c) a ceiling on Gross Public Debt of 50 percent of GDP in Net Present Value terms; and
4. d) a reserve cover of 4.5 months of imports

The indicative convergence criteria are;

1. a) a ceiling on core inflation of percent
2. b) a ceiling on fiscal deficit, excluding grants, of 6 percent of GDP
3. c) A tax to GDP ratio of 25 percent” (P: 103).

Part III: Strategic Direction:

“The strategy highlights the key development outcomes expected under the NDPII, the interventions and resources required to achieve these outcomes. The strategy also provides a motivation for the sources of growth and the expected socio-economic outcomes” (P: 111). “The goal of this Plan is to attain middle income status by 2020” (P: 112). “Fiscal Expansion for Frontloading Infrastructure Investment: In order to realize the necessary public investment, government will harness concessional and semi-concessional financing and other development support facilities that are targeted to accelerate investment in infrastructure and human development, among others. Industrialization: To stimulate growth and employment, the country will promote value addition through agro-processing and mineral beneficiation as well as light manufacturing which have a higher multiplier effect on wealth creation. Fast Tracking Skills Development: In order to plug the current skills gap, government will establish five centers of excellence to rapidly build the necessary skills required in the key priority areas. Export Oriented Growth: Uganda‘s strategic location at the heart of East Africa makes it well placed to exploit the regional market. The region is increasingly becoming a fertile ground for small scale exporters, diversifying the export market and adding value to traditional export commodities. A Quasi-Market Approach: A Quasi-Market approach will be pursued in order to increase efficiency of the public sector and competitiveness of the private sector. With this approach Government will invest in key strategic infrastructure in order to remove the barriers of entry and increase private sector participation in the key growth areas” (P: 114).

“Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: Uganda will implement policies aimed at accelerating a rapid decline in fertility and ensure the resulting surplus labour force is well educated, skilled, healthy and economically engaged in order to reap the demographic dividend. Urbanization: Uganda will implement a tripartite strategic policy aimed at accelerating planned and controlled urbanization, while ensuring the critical link between urbanization and modernization of agriculture where the urbanizing community frees land for commercial agriculture as well as create a market for the increased output and quality of agro products. Strengthening Governance: The key development results cannot be achieved without the necessary enabling environment. Meeting good governance principles which include: constitutional democracy; protection of human rights; rule of law; free and fair political and electoral processes; transparency and accountability. Integrating Key Cross-Cutting Issues into Programmes and Projects: The key cross-cutting issues of; Gender, HIV/AIDS, environment, nutrition, climate change, human rights, social protection, child welfare among others will be mainstreamed in the relevant programmes and projects during the implementation of the Plan” (P: 115).

Agriculture NDPII:

“For this Plan period, focus is placed on investing in the following agricultural enterprises along the value chain: Cotton, Coffee, Tea, Maize, Rice, Cassava, Beans, Fish, Beef, Milk, Citrus and Bananas. These enterprises were selected for a number of reasons including, high potential for food security (maize, beans, Cassava, Bananas); high contribution to export earnings (e.g. Maize – USD 21 million in 2005; coffee -USD 388 million in FY 2007/08; fish – USD 143 million at its peak; tea – USD 56 million in 2007)” (P: 120). “During NDPII the necessary institutional changes should be made so that a clear strategy for agro-processing can be developed and implemented. This should enable proposals for locating value addition facilities in the proposed zones” (P: 121).

Tourism NDPII:

“The NDPII has prioritized investment in strategic tourism supportive infrastructure (expansion of Entebbe International Airport, construction of Kabale Airport in Hoima, upgrading of strategic airfields, construction and maintenance of strategic tourism roads, as well as, investing in water transport to support tourism activities” (P: 122).

Minerals, Oils and Gas NDPII:

“The pumping of an estimated reserve of 3.5 billion barrels of oil, expected to start by 2017/18, portends great benefits for transport, energy, road infrastructure and public revenue” (…) “In the first year of implementation of the NDPII, a mineral development master plan containing the Country Mining Vision will be developed to implement the African Mining Vision. The Vision will clearly provide the detailed strategic direction and guidance for the mining, oil and gas during the NDP period and beyond” (P: 124-125).

Transport:

“Standard Gauge Railway System” (…) “A good railway system would effectively link Uganda to other countries within the East African region and to overseas. This is key to exporting, and importing for manufacturing and services at affordable/competitive rates via connections to Djibouti and Mombasa if we are to achieve the Plan targets” (P: 126). “Strategic Roads” (…)“For this Plan period, 1,500KM of gravel roads will be upgraded to tarmac, 700KM of old paved roads will be rehabilitated and 2,500KM of paved roads and 10,000KMs of unpaved roads will be maintenance” (P: 128) (…) “Energy Infrastructure: Government will invest in the necessary infrastructure to facilitate the exploitation of the abundant renewable energy sources including hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear, so as to increase power generation capacity from 825MW in 2012 to 2,500MW in 2020 and prepare for achievement of the required 41,738 Mega Watts by year 2040” (P: 130).  “Oil and Gas: The pumping of this oil and gas is expected to start by 2017/18” (…) “The Government will commence construction of a 22-inch diameter, 1,300Km long oil pipeline from Hoima via Lokichar to Lamu in Kenya. This is in addition to the oil refinery that is to be constructed at Kabaale in Hoima to process petroleum and other products for the domestic and international market” (P: 131). ICT: “Over the Plan period, government will prioritize investment in the following ICT infrastructure: extension of the National Backbone Infrastructure (NBI) to cover most of the country so as to increase penetration of communication services; finalise the migration from analogue to digital terrestrial broadcasting” (P: 132). Human Capital Development: “the Plan will focus on providing early childhood survival and full cognitive development. Efforts will be geared at: reducing incidences of morbidity and mortality; scaling up critical nutrition interventions outcomes especially for children below 5-years; and implementation of Early Childhood Development (ECD)” (P: 134). “A skills development programme will be designed and tailored to the Industrial strategy, production zones and urban corridor locations that will be planned during NDPII. Provisions will be made for skills training on location at infrastructure construction sites to give unemployed young Ugandans rather than imported labour the maximum chance of personal development”(P: 135).

Overall Growth:

“The NDPII assumes that all the interventions outlined in the strategic direction will be implemented during the period 2015/16-2019/20. In particular, it is assumed that the following will be realized during the NDPII period: (i) increasing productivity of all sectors, (ii) pursuing value addition especially for the agro-processing and mineral products, (iii) creating an environment where industrialization can flourish, and; (iv) improving social delivery of services” (P: 139).

Fiscal Strategy:

“The fiscal strategy of the NDPII is underpinned by the need to maintain macroeconomic stability and a quest to competitively position Uganda to fully benefit from the East African Common Market” (P: 141). ”The focus of addressing the infrastructure deficit while consolidating the gains in human capital development remains a key priority for the NDPII. In summary, being that infrastructure has been prioritized; the fiscal deficit will mainly be driven by the additional resources required for infrastructure and human capital development” (P: 142).

Expenditure Strategy:

“The overall average spending is expected to be 21.1 percent of GDP with the peak of 22 percent of GDP expected in 2016/17, and consolidation of spending by the end of the Plan period” (P: 142).

Revenue Development:

“On the revenue outlook, the NDPII envisages that there will be some improvement in domestic revenue mobilization (excluding oil revenues). These gains will arise from minimizing the use of non-standard VAT tax exemptions which have compromised the effectiveness of tax collection. These exemptions are estimated to reduce government revenue by 1 percent of GDP” (P: 144). “Grants under the NDPII period are expected to decline due to a combination of factors including: (i) austerity measures pursued in donor countries (ii) continued positive growth perception of donors about Uganda‘s recent developments and therefore not being eligible for certain grants. As a result grants are expected to decline further to 0.5 percent by the end of 2020” (P: 145).

Monetary Policy Stance and inflation:

“The Bank of Uganda (BOU) has been implementing monetary policy under an Inflation Targeting Lite (ITL) monetary policy framework since July 2011” (…) “BOU will continue to implement a monetary policy framework that will ensure price stability and at the same time conducive in attaining economic growth over the NDPII period. The inflation outlook will be largely dependent on changes in domestic food prices, exchange rate and international commodity prices. Over the NDPII period, the objective is to keep annual inflation low and stable assuming no major shocks to the economy” (…) “The foreign exchange market: The import content of infrastructure investment in Uganda is estimated to be between 67 percent and 80 percent, but over 80 percent of the key infrastructure projects will be financed from external sources” (…) “Domestic liquidity and private sector credit: The impact of public investment on domestic liquidity will be limited due to the high import content of the infrastructure projects. Nonetheless, a higher fiscal deficit and foreign exchange purchases by BOU will create a liquidity injection that must be managed appropriately to maintain low and stable inflation and healthy levels of private sector credit” (…) “Credit rating: There is a risk that higher fiscal deficits over the medium term will reduce confidence in Uganda‘s public finances. This could lead to a downgrading of the country‘s credit rating and raise interest costs” (P: 149-150).

Concessional External loans:  

“Concessional loans are defined as external loans contracted with a grant element of more than 35 percent mainly sourced from the bilateral and multilateral donors. Over the years these loans have cushioned Uganda to finance a moderate deficit. In 2014/15, concessional loans were projected to contribute up to 2.3 percent of GDP” (…) “Less than 50 percent of the financing needs will be met through concessional borrowing in 2013/14. Given this background, the NDPII relies on conservative estimates for concessional borrowing. It is expected that over the NDPII period concessional loans will remain a key source of financing in 2015/16 and 2016/17 and decline to 1 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2019/20 as the financing needs also decline” (P: 151-152).

Semi-Concessional External Loans:

“Financing from semi-concessional loans especially for large infrastructure projects including Karuma and Isimba dams and the SGR are expected to total USD 5.3 billion during the period 2015-20” (…) “Under the NDPII Government will continue to source these types of loans given their favorable terms compared to commercial loans” (P: 152).

Non-Concessional External Borrowing

“It is imperative that Government also starts exploring other options especially to finance large infrastructure projects whose economic returns may not be viable in the short run but with enormous social benefits. Uganda is currently rated at B by Fitch and Standard and Poors rating agencies” (P: 152).

Domestic Borrowing:

“Government started issuing securities for fiscal purposes in the year 2012/13 raising about UGX650bn (1.2 percent of GDP)” (…) “Given these challenges, the NDPII would attempt to limit domestic borrowing to current levels especially as the infrastructure projects get completed. The level of domestic debt would be limited to the range of 1.5-3 percent if domestic debt is to be contained within sustainable levels” (P: 153).

Public Private Partnership:

“Given the scale of investments required under NDPII, there is need to have close cooperation between the public and private sectors in form of public-private sector partnerships (PPP)” (…) “Government has already embarked on promoting and encouraging PPP in various forms for the smooth implementation of NDPII. Legislation towards formulating laws for PPPs is also in advanced stages. The forms that PPPs usually take include joint ventures between the Government and private sector entity/ies where both may contribute financial resources, Build, Operate and Transfer (BOT), Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT), Build, Own and Operate (BOO) and Concessions” (P: 153).

Financing debt:

“Under this financing strategy, all the solvency and liquidity external debt-burden indicators remained well below their policy-dependent thresholds throughout the projection period. The public gross national debt would peak at 42 percent of GDP in 2019/20 while the NPV is expected to peak at about 40 percent of GDP” (P: 154-155).

Afterthought:

This must be an eye-opener. It has already been a long article. I could have written my opinion on the matters and the whole NDPII. But I think the quotes speak for themselves. That if these don’t give you any indication on how the Government of Uganda hopes it turns out. They also told in this draft that certain aspects of the NDPI they didn’t succeed so if they don’t do it here. It shouldn’t be like a lightning strike from a clear sky. More like expected, this should be hard to achieve it’s a broad and general plan that has visions of all aspects of society from narrow industrial projects to infrastructure. That gives a lot of power and also a framework which is big. Therefore they need massive funding for this and already seen in other documents and in this that the scale of debt and loans is getting higher while the donor countries are offering less to the state coffers. Meanwhile the economy isn’t sustainably growing. While the Oil and Gas might cover for this that will still to be seen in 2017/2018 when the monies are expecting to recover. In the meanwhile the economy will drive itself on loans and hope for other funding. It’s already up to 40% of all budget concerns which is alarming. It should be, even if progression and analyzes say it can go up to 50% before the debt rate is too high. Even though that makes sense from an economic standpoint it’s still frightening to see the figures on how it has risen. And I wonder does the government have a constructive plan to pay this back to its creditors? Because that doesn’t comply here or anywhere else I have seen which is a little bit frightening. Peace.