The COVID-19 or Coronavirus outrbreak has broken the Fossil-Fuel Industry or the Petroleum Industry. The futures of sales on oil is crashing, the value of oil is shrinking, as the demand has gone bust within a short time. While the OPEC-Plus countries and other oil producing continued to drill oil and produce more barrels of oil. Which by all means are surplus. This means, the cost of production and the possible hitting the market at a loss.
The oil industry is hit by the lack of ordinary transport. That people are not flying, they are not using public transport or their own cars. As so many nations and republics with lockdowns. So, the demand has fallen dramatically over the last few weeks. This means the amount of drilled oil and surplus will stored, as the wholesale struggle to be traded and the ones buying need to keep it in stock. Since, the market is saturated with surplus as it is.
Why did the Oil Prices Crash:
“First, demand has been obviously decreasing as the coronavirus spreads around the world. Many countries took preventative measures including social distancing, restrictions on going out and prohibitions on international travel. This has sharply reduced demand for oil for transportation via vehicles and airplanes” (…) “Secondly, there is a technical reason. In the futures market, investors have to end the contract by doing a reverse trade by a certain expiry date, or buyers have to take physical delivery of the oil. The contract of WTI crude for May delivery, which was most actively traded, expires on Tuesday, so many investors who had bought oil rushed to sell to close the trading” (Rurika Imahashi – ‘Four things to know about the historic oil price plunge’ 21.04.2020, Asia Nikkei – Asian Review).
We can easily see and understand why we are here. There is no tourism right now. Airlines are not operating. Companies are going bonkers and people are under lockdown all across the board. Not only in one Republic, but in most. There isn’t a Kingdom, Republic or a Nation in itself, which haven’t had a lockdown or movement restriction. There are so many places where the public have been restricted.
That this industry has been hit and hard. This is only natural by the actions made by all governments and citizens following the social distancing and less travel. That is why the petroleum industry have more production, than what its actually trading. The wholesale is failing, while there is surplus in stock.
The petroleum and gasoline will be hit for a while, until the public and transportation companies uses as much as it used too before the COVID-19. The usage of cars, public transport and aviation industry too.
We are seeing a crash of industry because of how we changed quickly and how the lockdowns interfered in the usual acts of man-kind. We don’t need as much petroleum and fossil-fuel to get around. We don’t even travel within out own towns. There is just needed workers who does. The rest are based in small spaces. There already other industries hit already like Airlines, Tourism and so-on. This is a continuation of it.
The oil crash will directly hurt markets. It will not a big whoesale, as there is a lack of storage and places to put the millions of surplus barrels of oil. That is before the ones produced in the future. Peace.
“There is a lot of fake news about what is happening. We have been told that 11 people have died but that is not true. No one has died as a result of the drought and we are working round the clock to ensure that no one dies of hunger” – Deputy President William Ruto
The Deputy President William Ruto better just shut-up, listen to some advice and do something sincere, if it is first time in his life since he left the role as a wandering preacher. It is time for the hustler, the grand standing man of big PR Stunts to act swiftly and actually coordinate the government combined with the whole Nairobi machinery and all authorities. To ensure that the 1 million whose in jeopardy over a warned drought in Turkana gets help.
This is if the DP cares or even has a heart, unless he wants to continue to live lavish and enriching himself on others tragedy, because that is what he does. He sits in air-conditioned home, with a nice green garden, big pool and expensive cars. While fellow citizens go without food for days, because the DP cannot do his, neither any of the other Cabinet Secretaries.
This is really insulting to the people of Turkana. A people who deserves the state to act upon this. Even some people have suggested that its happen every ten years in the region. This means, the state has known about this, as this has happen every ten year. Not only the possible FEWS NET warning in December, which stated this and the state didn’t upon that. Not the Local Government, neither the National Government. They both didn’t act or see it fit to act differently, as the drought, the shortfall of rain was on the horizon. Still, they didn’t think of the consequences, because they are living good, secured and has a pantry with food, anyway.
There been reports of dead in various of villages and counties, however, the state does whatever it can to downplay this. Which is a disgrace, not only to the deceased, but to the public, which knows better. It is insulting to the ones who are struggling and lacking the basics, because the state didn’t plan to grain storage, education in caring for the environment or lean months. Alas, the state haven’t prepared or secured, the food insecurity, which it should have. Instead, they have busy scheduling corruption scandals.
The Jubilee, the DP and the cabinet combined with the local government in the drought hit region. Got to act, wisely and with measures to secure the lives at stake in Turkana. That is, if they really care or more preoccupied with keeping power by any means, while citizens are starving… it is happening on their watch. Still, they are trying to deflect that, its one million citizens who struggles to eat. They got nothing and awaiting handouts, because the state haven’t been concerned about their food insecurity.
DP Ruto, shut-up, listen and take some advice. DP Ruto, please open your ears, get some valuable advice and do something. Not try to PR Stunt this away. That is demeaning and insulting to the public of not only Turkana, but anyone who cares about humanity. Every single person dying because of this, is a foolish death. Because, you and your people could have ensured and facilitated the public and region. So, that it would be prepared for the upcoming dry-season, the shortfall of rain and the IPC 3 level. However, you where busy doing everything else. Peace.
Today is a day of warning, where the government, the local government and its authorities haven’t been prepared or cared for it. In its ignorance, the citizens of Turkana and its draught is happening, because their representatives and the state haven’t prepared for the shortfall of food nor water in the region. Even if there was waning signs months ago.
This is not just made up that Governor Josphat Nanok of Turkana County, CEO of NDMA James Odur, CS of Ministry of Devolution and ASALs Eugene Wamwalwa and so on. Can put the blame on everything else, but not on the intial inaction of their own government post. Even if that is true, because the FEWS warned about this in August/December 2018, because of lack of rain. Still, the government kept pumping like there was no tomorrow. Did nothing about it or didn’t handle it all. Since, who would make a fuzz anyway, right?
FEWS Network Warning Des. 2018:
“Performance of the October to December short rains was highly mixed across Kenya, leading to below-average crop performance and inadequate replenishment of rangeland resources in rainfall-deficit areas. In many pastoral and southeastern marginal agricultural areas, rainfall was below 85 percent of normal, while rainfall in the rest of the country was above average. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist in most pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through May, and an increase in the number of poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected in localized areas of Turkana, Wajir, and Garissa by February” (FEWS Net, 31.12.2018).
Kenyan Government response:
“The National Government has provided total of Kshs. 1,351,196,000 for response during the period of February, March and April 2019 as follows: Food and safety net Kshs. 601,196,000. Support to household irrigation water storage program (excavation of small water pans) Kshs. 600,000,000. Support to water trucking, maintenance and rehabilitation of boreholes Kshs. 150,000,000. Water trucking by NDMA in Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Marsabit and Tana River and maintenance of water points in selected areas. Hunger Safety Net Programme cash transfers by NDMA in Turkana, Wajir, Mandera and Marsabit” (…) “Nevertheless, the below-average short rains have slightly increased the food insecure population from 655,800 in August 2018 to current number of 1,111,500, with the top 12 counties having a total of 865,300 food insecure people” (Government of Kenya – ‘BRIEF ON CURRENT DROUGHT AND FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN ASAL COUNTIES, MARCH 2019’ 15.03.2019).
What is sad is the amount of people starving in a midst of draught, in region, where the state could have acted more swiftly and with more manpower. Because, they knew perfectly well that this was happening. This is in a region where Tullow Oil Company plans to drill oil with over 300 oil wells. Meaning, there is money and resources, which should lead to progress and development. So, that the region and county isn’t as impoverish as it is. However, there seems to be little or none of the seeds of the oil to go to needed projects or facilities to help out the locals.
Instead, the international oil companies, which reached an agreement last year in 2018. Have had the ability to drill for oil and the leaders have been pocketing money. While the state and the local county officials haven’t secure the public. That is what is the initial bargain in all of this. The public officials have been busy eating and now the public aren’t even getting bread-crumbs of the spoils. That’s what is even more sad about this situation. Knowing the region had hopes for the oil adventure and now seeing a drought, which brings even more despair.
Lochikar Basin haven’t brought anything to the local community, other than foreign investors pumping out their valuable resources, while the deal between Tullow and Government remains secret. As well, as the scarcity of water and other needed components of life, continue to run rampant in a region, which should have gotten some of the spoils of the wealth that is created there. Instead, the government cartels and public officials, who does not want to associate with the demise of the people in the drought, eat that up.
This could have been avoided, the state could have acted and the Turkana with their Oil should have had the resources to cope with it and be able to buy the needed imports of food and water. Alas, someone else is eating that, as long as the oil trucks are driving to Mombasa and the public see less or little of trade of it all.
While the sun is burning, little or no rain, while they await for a handout, when the government could have footed the bill, by the earnings of the oil alone. Peace.
20th May, Oslo.
Dear deceased and no longer living!
I am sorry for the world that befallen on you. That we the current living beings are not taking care of the world you left behind. That we in our egoistic and narrow minded spirit is continuing warfare, killings, looting and starving each other.
I am really sorry, that none of our leaders has learned from the past, which you try to teach us better. That the history and lessons we had by you, didn’t bear fruits. That we didn’t learn from the theories and the books of wisdom you left behind. I am so sorry, that your labor and dedication for a better future is dwindling away in rot and destruction.
I am sorry, that the world is a dangerous place, even as you tried to make it peaceful, that you tried within your means, to put forward mechanisms and organizations to keep us safe. That your negotiations and agreements, was made to secure borders and secure rights for all human beings. Instead we are ignorant of these facts and instead building drones to kill civilians. I am so sorry for that. We should have known better.
I am sorry that we have given all this powers to the corporations, made them legal bodies that operates in fashions and ways, that resemble slavery and also creates opportunities to extort nations. These corporations we have given power, to settle tax-scores and agreements that benefit the businesses, but not the governments nor the work-force, especially not the consumer in the long-run. We are accepting this theft for cheap products, but don’t think of the material cost nor the price of the labor of these fellow brothers and sisters. Which is countering the fight the previous generations did to secure a fair-pay and rights as workers in the industries and wherever you work. I am sorry, that we let this happen.
I am sorry, that we are not taking care of our planet, that we are filling it with plastic or any sort of garbage. We are floating it in the sea and we are destroying our forests, jungles, fjords and our soil in general. We are destroying our earth, we are worsening the climate change, the glaciers are melting, while we are drilling for more oil and gas. We are securing more coal and more uranium, while we are not sure of securing the damage after nuclear disasters, we already have had.
I am sorry for the next generation after us, that has to take care of this earth, that has to live in this environment, that has these political challenges, that has to rebuild these nations and republics. That has to find solutions to the trouble we left behind. I am sorry to you as well.
We should have known better, but we didn’t, I am sorry, we should have used the knowledge and wisdom of our predecessors, we should have used their time and opened our ears. Instead of piling up guns, drilling after oil and hoping that tomorrow never comes. That is how it seems. We didn’t think, we just let it go and never questioned the powers and the ones in top positions. So they could do something to stop conflict and stop the deaths of innocent civilians. We should have known better, but we continue like nothing.
I am sorry, we should have been better with what you left behind, but we didn’t, I hope when we meet again. That you forgive us and see that we should have taken your knowledge to heart and changed our ways. Not thinking about the next news-cycle, the next week, but been thinking about what leaves a mark for the next generation.
The Writer of Minbane
The Budget Framework Paper for Financial Year of 2018/2019 for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development is really revealing how the financing of the sector is and how the state is involved with the manner. Also, how low-key the main factors are and lacking transparency is hitting the Energy Sector of Uganda. Not that is surprising, since the agreements, the licenses and the tenders are usually kept behind closed doors.
However, the main part of the Framework Paper is evident of the issues at hand:
“The indicative budget ceilings for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development have been rationalised in line with the sector priorities and national priorities as communicated in the Budget Call Circular and in the Presidential Directives. The ceilings for Vote 017 for the FY 2018/19 are as follows: Wage Recurrent is UGX 4.23Bn; Non-Wage Recurrent is UGX 74,04Bn; GoU Development is UGX 307,84Bn and the Development Partner contribution is UGX 1,608.41Bn. Under Vote 123 ceiling is UGX 81.98Bn is for the GoU Domestic Development and UGX594.00Bn is from external financing” (Energy and Mineral Development, Budget Framework Paper FY 2018/19, 2018).
The building of vital infrastructure, the refinery, the pipelines and energy production facilities are all dependent on funding from abroad. If it is grants, loans or paid-in-full agreements done in secrecy. Because, there are more than the shadows of this budget framework paper. It is saying a lot and the votes for the future is showing the future too. That the Ugandan economy is prospering, as the budget are needing all funding from afar to be able to build needed infrastructure. Also, needs the grants for the Rural Electrification, the ones who the state has even borrowed to do.
Therefore, this Budget Framework Paper is showing the troubles ahead. This isn’t voting for better economy, know this is dependency and also proving how much the donors and partners are involved in making sure the economy gets addicted to it.
When it comes to the refinery, the details are clearly still in the wind: “The process of selecting of the Lead Investor is still progressing and the negotiations are ongoing between Government and the selected investor. The process is expected to be completed in FY 2017/2018. There after FEED and ESIA for refinery development will be undertaken with the Lead Investor on board” (Energy and Mineral Development, Budget Framework Paper FY 2018/19, 2018). So the selecting of it is not finalized, well, for some thought Russians had secured agreement and the reason for Museveni to visit Moscow. Clearly, that ship has sailed, we can wonder if Total or any other company would do this. As Total has the biggest chairs of licenses in the Lake Albertine Basin. Time will tell, but another proof of lack of transparency, when the Ministry has to write this.
“Procurement Bottlenecks including lengthy bidding processes that require no-objections from the external financiers at each stage of execution. There is need for PPDA to revise guidelines for procurements relating to flagship projects. In addition, the following measures need to be considered: financing agreements are signed, project is almost ready to kick off. PPDA should reduce the administrative review timelines that sometimes stall progress” (Energy and Mineral Development, Budget Framework Paper FY 2018/19, 2018).
This here is initially following the guidelines of the First Amendment of the 1995 Constitution of 2017, the Land Amendment that the National Resistance Movement put forward before the Age Limit. That would fit the narrative of the Ministry and their wishes. It is like reading the same idea, to give more power to the state and able to land issues quickly.
What we can learn, also and which is important, these developments, these infrastructures projects couldn’t have been built if it wasn’t for external loans, externals grants or direct aid, if not on the license fees and the parts that is taxed. However, the grand amount and the majority of the projects needs the external funding.
This is not surprising, it is to be expected because Museveni doesn’t want to use his money. He want to spend other people’s money and also the money of the future. To benefit him today, that is why the deals are done in the secrecy…. We don’t know the reasons and the value of the licenses, the ones who is to build the refinery, even the grand agreement between the Corporations who will build the Pipeline. We know that certain companies has failed to build the dams and used bad material, but that is because of the Chinese Contractors has saved money, while being paid-in-full.
President Museveni blessed that deal and got scraps back. Time will tell, but this isn’t a good look. Not because I want it to be bad, but because the money says so. Peace.