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Ranking of Peace in the East Africa Countries in 2015

East-Africa

First and foremost I will address what the trending and ranking means. What kind of things that the Global Peace Index does and what kind of attributes and recent history means for individual countries. All of this makes violence, homicides, social security, militarization which is part of the evaluation of the scores which makes the Index. The countries that will take on is Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. Which have different histories, though they are close to each other? Why are the numbers so far apart? What makes this? We can wonder. But look through what been said in the report and the numbers.

Last years trend:

“Over the past eight years the average country score deteriorated 2.4 percent, highlighting that on average the world has become slightly less peaceful. However, this decrease in peacefulness has not been evenly spread, with 86 counties deteriorating while 76 improved. MENA has suffered the largest decline of any region in the world, deteriorating 11 per cent over the past eight years (GPI, P: 2).

Economic price of violence:

“The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2014 was substantial and is estimated at US$14.3 trillion or 13.4 per cent of world GDP. This is equivalent to the combined economies of Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. Since 2008, the total economic impact on global GDP has increased by 15.3 per cent, from US$12.4 trillion to US$14.3 trillion” (GPI, P: 3).

“Societal safety and security:

This section analyses the effects of urbanisation on violence, and finds that peace generally increases with higher levels of urbanisation. This is a by-product of higher levels of development. However, countries that have weak rule of law, high levels of intergroup grievances and high levels of inequality are more likely to experience deteriorations in peace as urbanisation increases” (GPI, P: 3).

“Militarisation:

Since 1990, there has been a slow and steady decrease in measures of global militarisation, with large changes in militarisation occurring rarely and usually associated with larger, globally driven geopolitical and economic shifts” (GPI, P: 3).

Important evaluation that makes the GPI:

  • Ongoing domestic and international conflict
  • Societal safety and security
  • Millitarisation
  • Indirect cost of violence: Accounts for costs that are not directly related to an act of violence and accrue over the long run. This can include losses of income due to injury or pain or grievance of others who were not directly involved in the crime.
  • Internal Peace: A set of indicators that measures how peaceful a country is inside its
  • national borders
  • Negative Peace: The absence of violence or fear of violence.
  • Positive Peace: The attitudes, institutions and structures which create and sustain peaceful societies. These same factors also lead to many other positive outcomes that support the optimum environment for human potential to flourish.
  • Positive Peace Index (PPI): A composite measurement of Positive Peace based on 24 indicators grouped into eight domains.
  • Resilience: The ability of a country to absorb and recover from shocks, for example natural disasters or fluctuations in commodity prices.
  • Violence containment: Economic activity related to the consequences or prevention of violence where the violence is directed against people or property.

(GPI, P: 4).

Listings of Peaceful ratings:

World Rank: Country: Score: State of the Peace: Change in Score: Regional Rank:
130 Burundi 2,323 Low +,0,009 34
155 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 3,085 Very Low -0,033 41
119 Ethiopia 2,234 Low -0,143 27
133 Kenya 2,323 Low -0,086 35
139 Rwanda 2,420 Low -0,027 38
157 Somalia 3,307 Very Low -0,079 42
159 South Sudan 3,383 Very Low +0,107 44
64 Tanzania 1,903 Medium -0,024 10
111 Uganda 2,197 Medium +0,013 24

(GPI P: 8-9, P: 13)

The Regional Rank is set for the region of Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore the regional rank is different from the World Rank. In the World rank it goes from 64 of Tanzania and 159 of South Sudan. That is 100 countries in between in the World, when we talk about peaceful environment and the fear should be one South Sudan (159), Somalia (157) and DRC (155).  Tanzania which is on top is the 64. Next place is for Uganda was ranked on 111, the third and fourth country in the region which was near each other was Kenya (133) and Rwanda (139). And the fifth place is Burundi (130) – which I am certain will fall on the rank after the elections in 2015. But for the GPI 2015 there is still high level for the region.

On Armed Conflicts and War in Sub-Saharan Africa: “Although sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of conflicts, these conflicts tend not to last as long as in other regions. There were only three conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 which started more than three years ago, two of which are long-standing conflicts in Ethiopia” (GPI, P: 51).

On Peacefulness in the region: “In 2008, MENA had the same level of peacefulness as sub-Saharan Africa, and was the 6th most peaceful region in the world. By 2015 it has become the least peaceful region in the world, deteriorating by 11 per cent over the period” (GPI, P: 55).

On South Sudan: “South Sudan’s ranking declined by only three places, but this was on top of by far the sharpest fall in the 2014 GPI. It remains embroiled in the civil conflict that broke out in December 2013, and which has thus far proved immune to numerous peace efforts” (…) “South Sudan also fell for its third consecutive year, slipping a further 3 places to 159. (GPI, P: 13, 16).

On Somalia: Somalia is on the highest cost of violence percentage of GDP which was 22%. “The majority of” (…) “Somalia’s costs stem from IDPs and refugees and homicides” (…) “The same category represents 54 per cent of Somalia’s total costs. (GPI, P: 77).

The difference is staggering from Somalia and South Sudan to the best state of peace in Tanzania. The other countries in between is ranked so close and with scores that could easily point them further down for next year if the militarization and violence inside the countries continue. Like I have a grand feeling that Burundi will fall on the ranking next year, also Uganda with the recent attacks and continuously going against opposition to the Presidential elections in 2016. Rwanda will sure shut down anybody who goes against the third term of Paul Kagame. There are also issues that are meeting Joseph Kabila’s planed third term in Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia is in a stalemate of totalitarian regime that keeps the borders clear and with the resistance that comes from Somalia or the Omoro Liberation Front (OLF). Kenya has issues with building the border to Somalia where they has also taken districts in Somalia. And Kenya has the fear of Al-Shabab after the terrorist attack in Nairobi (2013) and that has happen also in Kampala (2010) in Uganda.

Therefore these rankings are important to look at because you can see what the state of ease is at, this is about the peace and impact of the authoritarian and totalitarian regimes in these countries. And will be good to follow and see how it really turns out in the next year rankings from the same place the Institute for Economic and Peace.

Hope it’s been a drop of enlightenment for you as well. Peace.

Reference:

Institute for Economics and Peace: “Global Peace Index – 2015 – Measuring Peace, its causes and its economic value”

2015/327/AFR & 2015/335/AFR – World Bank Press releases on Kampala and Kenya

 

Kampala 2008

Kampala 2008

2015/327/AFR – Managing Rapid Urbanization Can Help Uganda Achieve Sustainable and Inclusive Growth:

KAMPALA, March 03, 2015— Uganda’s urban population will increase from six million in 2013 to over 20 million in 2040. Policy makers need to act now to ensure that this rapid urbanization is managed well, so it can contribute to Uganda’s sustainable and inclusive growth, a report released today by the World Bank Group shows.

For the first time, the report compares data on urban areas and their populations in a consistent manner across Uganda, providing governments and local leaders with analyses to improve planning and coordination to deliver better services, jobs and opportunities, making cities more competitive.

“The typical Ugandan city has grown rapidly, but without sufficient policy coordination. As a result, urbanization has not necessarily resulted in increased productivity, with the majority of jobs created involving low productivity activities,” said Hon. Daudi Migereko, Minister of Lands, and Housing and Urban Development. “This report will help government get a better picture and take action on how to spur the economy from the lackluster growth performance experienced over the past half-decade, to a higher growth path that can catapult the country into middle income status.”

The Fifth Uganda Economic Update, titled: “The Growth Challenge: Can Ugandan Cities get to Work?” focusses on urbanization and notes that while the majority of the population is still concentrated in rural areas, non-agricultural economic growth and jobs are concentrated in urban areas. The report shows that while cities can help propel growth, the speed of urbanization is challenging and can lead to congestion and strain infrastructure, lowering productivity.

“By managing the urbanization process effectively, Uganda will be more likely to achieve middle income status by 2040. However, current patterns of growth pose a significant challenge,” said Philippe Dongier, the Country Director for the World Bank Group for Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi.Urban population growth multiplies the number of challenges already facing urban areas and hinders their ability to be the sources of growth, to create productive jobs and to provide decent housing to urban residents.”

The Update has been prepared to assist government in ensuring that its cities are ready to accommodate the increasing number of residents expected to settle in urban areas and able to facilitate the growth of business enterprises, thereby creating opportunities for productive employment for a greater proportion of city residents.

“Cities have the potential to propel growth, attracting capital, spurring innovation, providing higher productivity jobs. Services can be provided more cost-effectively, improving access for all,” said Somik Lall, Lead Urban Economist. “To reap these benefits, urban growth needs to be managed well by planning for land use and basic services, connecting to make a city’s markets accessible, and financing to meet infrastructure needs.”

“To ensure the development of functional cities, the public sector will require the coordination of a range of different types of investment, including investment in physical planning for buildings and the provision of transport, housing and social services,” said Rachel Sebudde, Senior Economist and Lead author of the report. “Each layer faces its own coordination challenges. It is better to anticipate and plan for this at the very early stages of the urbanization process, as it becomes very difficult to correct mistakes retrospectively.”

Policy makers at national and municipal levels have an important role to play in ensuring that urbanization is sustainable and inclusive by ensuring that land and property rights are conducive for increasing economic density of cities. They will also have to improve mobility through better transport infrastructure and systems, as well as improve living conditions through better housing policies. Furthermore, it will be critical to improve access to social services such health and education; and levelling access to, and quality of, public services such as water and sanitation services.

Urbanization in Numbers

  • 6.4 million Ugandans live in urban areas
  • 70 percent of non-agricultural GDP in Uganda is generated in urban areas
  • 54 percent of people living in Central region are residing in urban areas
  • Central region has the highest number of people living in urban areas, but the Eastern region is the fastest urbanizing region during the first decade of 2000s
  • Kampala is home to 31 percent of Uganda’s urban population
  • 69 percent of Uganda’s urban population live in small cities with less than 500,000 people
  • 21 million people will live in urban areas in Uganda by 2040
  • By 2013, 38 percent of the urban population was connected to the electricity grid
  • The number of firms engaged in real estate and business services in Kampala is 11 times the overall average across districts
  • Over the first decade of the 2000s, cities accounted for 36 percent of overall job growth
  • Walking is the main mode of transport in Kampala, and 70 percent of the residents of Kampala walk to work
  • 80 percent of the global economic activity is generated in cities

2015/335/AFR – Kenya Among the Fastest Growing Economies in Africa:

Nairobi, March 5, 2015—Buoyed by falling oil prices, Kenya’s growth is projected to rise from 5.4 percent in 2014 to 6-7 percent over the next three years (2015-2017), making it one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa according to the latest Kenya Economic Update (KEU) published by the World Bank.

The eleventh edition of the KEU notes that external and internal balances are expected to improve significantly, thanks to falling oil prices. In addition public investment in infrastructure, mainly in energy and standard gauge railways, will strengthen growth in the medium term.

“Kenya is emerging as one of Africa’s key growth centers with sound economic policies in place for future improvement” said Diarietou Gaye, the World Bank’s Country Director for Kenya. “To sustain momentum, Kenya needs to continue investing in infrastructure and jobs, improve its business climate, and boost it exports.”

The report says that the country’s expansive fiscal policy allowed it to finance major infrastructure projects without putting excessive pressure on domestic financing. “Kenya’s accommodative monetary policy stance has supported economic activities without triggering inflation or putting pressure on the exchange rate.” said John Randa, World Bank Group’s Senior Economist for Kenya and lead author of the report.

Challenges remain

Sluggish demand for exports and their declining production is widening the country’s current account deficit. The report suggests that in order to anchor and sustain growth, Kenya needs to boost productivity and improve the business environment to regain and increase its competitiveness.

In recent years the manufacturing’s contribution to Kenyan exports and growth has fallen behind and performance has been less than optimal. “Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of its manufacturing sector so that the country can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs, said Maria Paulina Mogollon, World Bank Group’s Private Sector Development Specialist and a co-author of the report.       

A strong manufacturing sector will create more employment, especially for young people in Kenya. The report suggests that this will also increase exports and reduce the country’s external vulnerability from a widening account deficit.

The report highlights key steps for Kenya to take including  implementing the business reform agenda, completing reforms at the port of Mombasa, improving the efficiency of its massive infrastructural projects, strengthening governance, improving productivity, and continuing to maintain macroeconomic stability.

The KEU is prepared by the World Bank in collaboration with stakeholders from the government especially the members of the Economic Roundtable who include the Ministry of Devolution and Planning, Ministry of Industrialization and Enterprise Development, Central Bank of Kenya, Kenya School of Monetary Studies, Kenya Vision 20130 Secretariat, Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and the International Monetary Fund.

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