A look into the leaked SGR Agreement

Transport CS Kipchumba Murkomen releases SGR agreement for public scrutiny. Some key loan terms:

~ Loan amount not exceeding $1.6Bn

~ 2.0% per annum interest

~ 0.25% management fee

~ 20-year tenure with a 7yr grace period

~ preference for the purchase of goods from China” (Kenyan Wallstreet, 06.11.2022).

The SGR Agreement decides that the Kenyan Government has 13 years to repay the loans for the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR). This is happening after the 7 year grace period. The agreement was signed off on the 14th May 2014 and 7 years after that is last year May 2021.

There been speculations about this agreement ever since the Jubilee government signed it and accepted it’s terms. It was even at one point, rumours that the Kenyan government had signed off the Mombasa Port operations to the China EXIM Bank.

What it instead says in addition to the terms of the direct financial manner. It says something very interesting…

A key parts of the SGR Agreement is this, as well as the other mentioned terms: “The Borrower undertakes to procure that the Government of Kenya or the relevant authorities of Kenya shall stipulate and issue preferential policies, regulations or approvals in relation to RDF which could be applied in priority to make the repayment of loans in relation to the Project as owning to the Lender, the Long Term Service Agreement and its due performance, the revenues generated from the Project which will be applied in priority to make the repayment of loans in relation to the Project as owing to the Lender (except for the expenditures of operation and management of the Project), the Inlander Container Depot (inland port) established in Nairobi and its mandatory customs clearance, and all other necessary policies or approvals, with an aim to ensuring the due operation of the Project and the repayment of such loans in relation to the Project as owing to the Leader” (SGR Agreement, 2014).

Here the borrower is setting the terms of usage and how the transport policies are set. This is now in print and in public. It now makes perfect sense why the authorities and the government ordered all goods or movement of cargo is directed to the SGR. That is done in accordance with the agreement actually. Because the stipulation is actually there…

Certainly, you can wonder if Beijing or the China Exim Bank is happy with the leakage of the agreement between them and the Kenyan Government. They would most likely be happy to have it under seal and hidden from the public space. Because, now the realities of this agreement is in the public domain.

The SGR is already a sort of failure and lack of creating revenue. That’s why the SGR haven’t been profitable or had the ability be viable. That’s why the Kenyan Government had to direct all cargo to go through the SGR and to the Navisha or Inland Port in Nairobi. Therefore, this agreement is just showing how bad this deal was.

The one winning here is China and they are getting lots of interests out of it. They are able to get the Kenyan government on their side. The Kenyan Government accepted a huge loan for an expensive railway. A railway that will take forever to be a feasible enterprise. That’s why these terms will be a liability and an expensive expense for the taxpayers in the years to come. While the SGR will not deliver or be able to re-coup the debt. That’s what is tragic here… Peace.

Kenya: A Pakistani Journalist assassinated by the GSU…

A senior police officer confirmed the shooting and added a comprehensive statement will be released later. “We had an incident of shooting which turned out to be a case of mistaken identity involving a journalist. We will release more information later,” the officer said” (Cyrus Ombati – ‘Pakistani journalist shot dead by police at roadblock in Kajiado’ 24.10.2022, The Star).

This whole story is tragic, a Pakistani civilian was murdered or assassinated in Kenya. That’s the story and the General Service Unit (GSU) is the one behind it. They are the ones that is mentioned. The little military wing of the National Police Service. A military wing of the Police Service. They are highly trained and capable para-military group, which is either in Recce-brigades or part of the Presidential Guard Company. Most likely not the trainees from the Embakasi training school. This was done by professionals. Especially, in the way and manner the car was shot at.

Just read this:

4. The shooting hit the car from all sides. The incident left the car with nine bullet holes on the left side of the windscreen, which is the side the deceased was sitting; two bullet holes on the rear left back screen, one bullet hole on the rear right door, four holes right side of the boot and one front right tyre that had been deflated.

5. The driver, Mr Ahmed, reported finding a gunshot wound on Mr Sharif’s head, which was likely the fatal shot. The bullet penetrated the back of his head and exited the front” (Stanley Ngotho – ‘Shooting of Pakistani Arshad Sharif: 5 things we know so far’ 24.10.2022, Daily Nation).

When you read this and the “mistaken identity” don’t make sense. They shot the vehicle from all sides, as it was coming to a roadblock. There are so many issues with this and needs further independent investigation. The DPP and DCI will most certainly “kill” this gave and ensure it gets cold. Because, the GSU and the ones ordering the bullets don’t want to take accountability. This must come from up high and that’s why the assassination happened in such a mysterious way.

It’s not just me pointing the obvious out:

The police statement on the Arshad Shariff killing has too many gaps. First, if it was a case of a stolen vehicle, the number plates of the stolen car and the one Arshad was are different. They don’t say the make. By the time of the incident, the “abducted” son had been found. The driver was his brother, Khurram Ahmed. They now say the road was blocked “with small stones” and on passing them, there was a shooting by GSU officers. Interestingly, no chase to recover the “stolen” vehicle is reported. We have a problem here. Clarification: I am being told Khurram Ahmed is not the brother as indicated in the OB report. Probably a cousin” (Eliud Kibii, 24.10.2022).

This is why this has to be properly investigated. The National Police Service first statement is already poked holes in. Secondly, I highly doubt he was shot at from all sides, because of “mistaken identity”. That sort of profile and targeted vehicle happens for a reason. The GSU doesn’t spray a vehicle with bullets and aims maliciously like they did without intent. That is just the obvious and an assassination like this happens for a reason. There is ranking officer and “high above” who ordered the hit. It must be something shady behind all of it…

This is an extra judicial killing, which isn’t new in Kenya. Mysterious murders and assassinations has happened with the assailants leaving without a trace. That’s the reality right here. The Pakistani journalist was hit, targeted and assassinated. We just don’t know why and for what reason. We don’t know the motive or the ones who issued it. Certainly, there is more to this. Since the story doesn’t add up. Peace.

Kenya: National Police Service – Press Statement (24.10.2022)

Opinion: Odinga goes into conspiracy theories to defend his loss…

What we had was a coup d’etat. You even saw the chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission run to announce the results as some of his commissioners denounced the outcome, yet he was celebrated as a hero. They cannot allow that to happen anywhere else in Africa” (…) “The international community could not condemn Mr Chebukati’s actions because they knew what had happened. The African right-wing has always been in conspiracy with the international monopoly capital since independence and Kenyans must be prepared to further sacrifice to win this struggle” Raila Odinga (07.10.2022).

This time around the Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga is going overboard in defending his loss in the 2022 elections. We know the Azimio didn’t prepare or even collect workable evidence to sustain in the Supreme Court. The Odinga Secretariat and Azimio was running on vibes and not directly considering the professional work of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.

It is really interesting that a month has passed since the Supreme Court confirmed William Ruto’s win. Now after the fact his coming with pseudo-intellectualism and conspiracies to why he lost. Odinga should be better than this, but he needs to grasps straws, instead of reflecting on the reasons for his loss. There was internal issues within the Azimio, which has been revealed after the August election and it has never been addressed. The Azimio team could have investigated and looked into how it operated. However, it wants to vilify someone else and continue to target Chebukati.

Chebukati is the epic boogeyman now. His the villain and the grand culprit of a scheme to overturn the August election. That’s what Odinga is saying… while his not reflecting on the reasoning, the evidence or the work of Azimio in general. It is like saying Ruto and KKA has no agency of their own. Only Odinga has agency and ability to work on his own. The rest is either part of a grand conspiracy or working for colonial powers. Alas, how can you put these things together now?

Couldn’t the same arguments and reasoning be used against him, if he would have won and become the next President? If he had become Baba the 5th couldn’t the cartels and the dynasties be seen as a part of the “deep state”. So, in this regard his making a lot of smoke, but there is no initial fire.

In this manner, Odinga is actually undermining the authorities and the entities involved in the election. His disregarding the KKA and their allegiance to the Republic. They have now overlords, which they are following and directing them. If it is so, wouldn’t the same most likely have happened to him too?

Since Odinga would inherit the same structures, institutions and international obligations, which the Kenya government have to uphold. It isn’t like he would operate in a vacuum or on a lonely island without any pre-conditions what-so-ever. If that sound preposterous or outrageous, well, it is and this is why Odinga needs a pushback.

I have defended and wished Odinga victory in the past. Seeing the plights and the pleas from him in the 2013 and in 2017. However, the 2022 election was different for me. Both the way the IEBC operated and how it could defend it’s role. It’s like Odinga never moved on from the technical and mechanisms the IEBC has made over the years. That’s why Chebukati is getting such wording his way.

What I would prefer, if any of these things was true. Would be a deep dive from the Raila Odinga Presidential Secretariat or the Azimio team. Where Odinga and his associate could prove the involvement and the conspiracy itself. Until then, it’s just hearsay and alleged allegations that cannot be proven. Therefore, it’s just conspiracy theories.

Yes, there will be multi-national organization connected to the Kenyan government. That being the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and diplomatic relations with several of other nations. It is not like that would change under Odinga, who himself has been a part of the African Union as an Envoy. He should know the gist of this… and that’s why his conspiracies are of no good. Especially, when his own petition and evidence didn’t hold up in Court.

Odinga either have to deliver a comprehensive report with valid evidence or just accept the loss. Because, his team couldn’t even get a victory like they did in the Supreme Court in 2017. So, he should know the gist of it. However, this is politicking, but not the good kind. Peace.

Kenya: Farmers Party – Farmers Party Condemns Azimio Plan to Derail the Government (30.09.2022)

Kenya: Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Re: Kenya’s Position on the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) – (16.09.2022)

Opinion: Is Odinga going back to the streets or what?

Whenever judges resort to insults on advocates, it is as a result of disturbed conscience. Supreme Court is now in politics. Koome said that ruling was inspired by God, I believe it was inspired by the devil” Raila Odinga (16.09.2022).

This here speech today… just a day after returning from vacation with family on Zanzibar. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Azimio la Umoja and One Kenya Alliance Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga is speaking his mind the recently ended elections. However, he seems far from finished with it and certainly he will go back to old ways.

Odinga seems to be back on the campaign trail again. He wants to run and be announced winner. That was anticipated ahead of the August 9th 2022 election. Nevertheless, the results told otherwise. He lost both the declaration and the Supreme Court petition. That’s why the election is exhausted this time around. However, we know that Baba isn’t the man to work in silence or be giving up.

That’s why I have a feeling of a new drive like the OKOA demonstrations and the “reforms” of the electoral law again. A man who tried to change the laws and constitution with the Building Bridges Initiative after the 2017 elections. So, it seems like a power thing now and not an honest effort anymore.

Just read these quotes after everything went down and Baba is certainly playing the cards of which we have seen before. Dismissing the state and the authorities, the government bodies who is in charge or had a say. Especially when they are not having a verdict or an announcement fitting his path.

If you do not unite, you are going to be ruled throughout the life of this Parliament and yet we have the numbers and strength to be able to be the rulers in the House” (Odinga, 16.09.2022).

We have three urgent tasks that we must not fail in; save the Judiciary and Legislature from state capture, transform and reform IEBC and make capable of conducting credible elections” (Odinga, 16.09.2022).

We have had the worst election since the return of multiparty politics” (Odinga, 16.09.2022).

Just by reading these quotes and not listening in to the whole address by Odinga today. It is surely seeing a pattern of first attacking the IEBC and now the Judiciary. Because, none of these gave the results he wanted. Odinga was the next in line and he cannot accept that someone else gotten elected. Neither can he accept that the Petition to the Supreme Court wasn’t good enough and the re-use of the 2017 petition didn’t help the case either.

Odinga is now going back to seemingly revive OKOA stances and wanting similar reforms. Just because he lost yet another election. That’s how it seems to me. Now, he will use the Azimio and coalition to target the entities that blocked his entry into office. That’s why it’s the worst election in history, because he was on a strong ticket and had the incumbent aligned on his team. Alas, that was the fault line and he didn’t consider the total campaign. Neither has the Azimio Secretariat listened to wisdom of others or possibly mistakes, which could have ensured victory.

Instead of looking into the wrongs internally. Odinga is striking at the state and the entities who blocked his entry into office. He cannot phantom that it wasn’t enough popularity to get him into office. Neither, that Ruto was able to play the nation smarter and gain just enough support from his strongholds. That should hurt Odinga, but he surely doesn’t seem to be able to grasp this idea.

He rather go back to renegade and go to the streets again. Where we see the actions in similar fashion of the CORD and what it did in consideration towards OKOA. If he pushes a One Million March. Then we are back to 2014-15 sort of actions. That’s how it’s looking and everyone should be aware.

At this point it seems like revenge and avenge his own losses. Instead of asking what went wrong internally in the Azimio Secretariat. He rather vent his anger against the IEBC and the Judiciary. Peace.

Opinion: Kenyatta will miss his old office very quickly…

It has been announced that the former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has been appointed to mediate and be a “Special Envoy” to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Ethiopia. He will have to partake in the insurgencies in the DRC and the conflict in Northern Ethiopia (Tigray). Therefore, he has a massive take and lots of responsibility overnight.

The Former President be working with Heads of State in the DRC. Where he has to be working directly with the authorities in Kinshasa. That’s the place he has a shot and possibility to make a difference. Kenyatta already has a working relationship with President Felix Tshisekedi. Therefore, if there is hope for any substantial progress or delivery. He should hope to get somewhere in the DRC.

The M23 latest peace agreement was already made in Nairobi with the Nairobi Declaration. That’s why, Kenyatta has goodwill and could use the working relations from his years in office to make a difference, but we shouldn’t have to high hopes. However, we have to take what positives there are before downplaying this role and office.

On the other hand, in Ethiopia and Addis Ababa, is a place where Kenyatta might not be so much welcome. There won’t be much fanfare or acceptance of him. He will be a nonce and nuisance quickly. The Addis Ababa government have to already work with the African Union Envoy for the Horn, Olusegun Obasanjo. The former Nigerian President have struggled to bring any dialogue or talks between the stakeholders. This work has been stifled and his had an unforgiving role, as the FDRE and the Government of Tigray has both ceased talks or negotiations in general.

Obasanjo have tried and his hands are tied. We know the FDRE is directing how the AU Envoy can operate. While people will quickly question the mandate and what sort of mission Kenyatta has. This was quickly launched, as Kenyatta retired from the Office of Presidency. It is a way of softening the blow and give him a purpose. Though, what will the Ministry of Foreign Affairs tell Kenyatta and what is his anticipated to do?

Will he make phone-calls, conduct field-work or even try to get stakeholders to meet each other? A man of peace can do a lot. He can do little or a lot. If any of the 10 years in Office will tell us. The former President could easily create a scandal or a way of using the office for enriching himself. However, it would be hard to find a way to make this happen. Nevertheless, people shouldn’t be shocked, if he found a way or a scheme to get some additional funds. That is his way and how he has run his government.

Ruto surely sent him on his merry. Giving him a token of appreciation and an honourable task. Kenyatta should use all diplomatic channels and shouldn’t expect much. It isn’t like his through IGAD, AU or any other body. No, his just appointed by the incumbent Kenyan President and that isn’t setting a strong mandate.

This is sort of like the mandate or role Stephan Kalonzo Musyoka had in the South Sudan in the previous term. He was the Special Envoy to South Sudan and he surely cannot show much, if anything He got a few free trips to Juba, but cannot be said to helped the process significantly.

This here office should be gazetted and the mandate should be set forward. Also, the current President should give a time-frame and possible plans for it. Since, it shouldn’t just be something to keep Kenyatta busy. Kenyatta should have a target to work towards in coordination with Kinshasa and Addis Ababa. However, time will tell if they will let him or see him as outside noise. Peace.

Opinion: Ruto – Better to come slow and correct…

Ruto received a congratulatory message from Moroccan King His Majesty King Mohammed VI. Kenya rescinded its recognition of Western Sahara and orders the shutdown of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic’s representative office in Kenya. He indicated support 4 UN-induced statehood” (The Daily Jubba, 14.09.2022).

It isn’t more than a day since President William Ruto has been sworn-in. Yesterday was the day of honour and procedure, as Ruto was starting his term as Kenyan President. Today, the reality of his office is starting. Now he has to take control, decisions and appoint the right people to office. He has to collectively find the rights persons for the Cabinet Secretaries and other vital roles of the State.

That’s why Ruto should use this time with caution. It will do no good to be brash, swift and without care. The President should slow down and recollect. He should envision and plan things ahead. With the people he trust and with the counsels that can advice properly.

Because, today we saw a rash act, which can easily get diplomatic trouble. Not that it can create a war or more conflict. No, but it can hurt interests on all sides. The Kingdom of Morocco might be happy with the progress. The King of Morocco got a diplomatic victory. While the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic or the annexed Western Sahara government feels betrayed. What is even more striking was the SADR President Brahim Ghaliat even was at Kasarani stadium yesterday.

As a President, Ruto needs to consider his steps and how he operates. He isn’t in opposition or without power. Now his word has a value and he can purposely change dynamics. Yes, as the Deputy President and as a Cabinet Secretary, Ruto has had this too. However, now it’s even more prestige and pressure on his name. His words are even more powerful and meaningful. That’s why he should use that with caution.

President Ruto can by quickly tweeting in favour of the Moroccan ambassador dismiss the cause of the SADR. Even if that wasn’t the case and play along to the tune of the Kingdom. In that fashion his showing diplomatic weight behind the King of Morocco and disregarding the President Ghaliat. Therefore, he should walk slowly and not try to run to fast.

President Ruto might not even know how Algeria has invested in this and worked for the liberation of SADR. The way and the long liberation war of the Polisario Frente either. There are many things at play and not only the word of the King. No, there is more at stake and Ruto should have advisers on his side to give him proper counsel before revoking or rescinding diplomatic ties. This could have other implications, which he cannot phantom right now.

Yes, Ruto deleted the Tweet, but the news is out there. The cat is out of bag and he ran to the finish line a bit too fast. That’s why he should take things slow and configure the message before its spread. Especially, in concern to foreign affairs and in order to diplomatic missions as well. This has to be played wisely and not just with a snap of a finger.

That’s when things backfires and he can look stupid. Ruto can become humiliated and look foolish. A President don’t want that… and no Head of State wants to be taken for a fool. That’s why my advice to him… is to take it slow and grow into the role. No need to speed-walk or run a marathon. There is enough decisions to take and enough scandals to arrive on his desk. Therefore, he should recollect and smell the coffee.

Instead, he has already created a farce and it could have been avoided, easily. Peace.

Kenya: Raila Odinga Presidential Secretariat – Re: Invitation to H.E. William Ruto’s Inauguration (12.09.2022)

%d bloggers like this: