The COVID-19 or Coronavirus outrbreak has broken the Fossil-Fuel Industry or the Petroleum Industry. The futures of sales on oil is crashing, the value of oil is shrinking, as the demand has gone bust within a short time. While the OPEC-Plus countries and other oil producing continued to drill oil and produce more barrels of oil. Which by all means are surplus. This means, the cost of production and the possible hitting the market at a loss.
The oil industry is hit by the lack of ordinary transport. That people are not flying, they are not using public transport or their own cars. As so many nations and republics with lockdowns. So, the demand has fallen dramatically over the last few weeks. This means the amount of drilled oil and surplus will stored, as the wholesale struggle to be traded and the ones buying need to keep it in stock. Since, the market is saturated with surplus as it is.
Why did the Oil Prices Crash:
“First, demand has been obviously decreasing as the coronavirus spreads around the world. Many countries took preventative measures including social distancing, restrictions on going out and prohibitions on international travel. This has sharply reduced demand for oil for transportation via vehicles and airplanes” (…) “Secondly, there is a technical reason. In the futures market, investors have to end the contract by doing a reverse trade by a certain expiry date, or buyers have to take physical delivery of the oil. The contract of WTI crude for May delivery, which was most actively traded, expires on Tuesday, so many investors who had bought oil rushed to sell to close the trading” (Rurika Imahashi – ‘Four things to know about the historic oil price plunge’ 21.04.2020, Asia Nikkei – Asian Review).
We can easily see and understand why we are here. There is no tourism right now. Airlines are not operating. Companies are going bonkers and people are under lockdown all across the board. Not only in one Republic, but in most. There isn’t a Kingdom, Republic or a Nation in itself, which haven’t had a lockdown or movement restriction. There are so many places where the public have been restricted.
That this industry has been hit and hard. This is only natural by the actions made by all governments and citizens following the social distancing and less travel. That is why the petroleum industry have more production, than what its actually trading. The wholesale is failing, while there is surplus in stock.
The petroleum and gasoline will be hit for a while, until the public and transportation companies uses as much as it used too before the COVID-19. The usage of cars, public transport and aviation industry too.
We are seeing a crash of industry because of how we changed quickly and how the lockdowns interfered in the usual acts of man-kind. We don’t need as much petroleum and fossil-fuel to get around. We don’t even travel within out own towns. There is just needed workers who does. The rest are based in small spaces. There already other industries hit already like Airlines, Tourism and so-on. This is a continuation of it.
The oil crash will directly hurt markets. It will not a big whoesale, as there is a lack of storage and places to put the millions of surplus barrels of oil. That is before the ones produced in the future. Peace.
The Budget Framework Paper for Financial Year of 2018/2019 for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development is really revealing how the financing of the sector is and how the state is involved with the manner. Also, how low-key the main factors are and lacking transparency is hitting the Energy Sector of Uganda. Not that is surprising, since the agreements, the licenses and the tenders are usually kept behind closed doors.
However, the main part of the Framework Paper is evident of the issues at hand:
“The indicative budget ceilings for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development have been rationalised in line with the sector priorities and national priorities as communicated in the Budget Call Circular and in the Presidential Directives. The ceilings for Vote 017 for the FY 2018/19 are as follows: Wage Recurrent is UGX 4.23Bn; Non-Wage Recurrent is UGX 74,04Bn; GoU Development is UGX 307,84Bn and the Development Partner contribution is UGX 1,608.41Bn. Under Vote 123 ceiling is UGX 81.98Bn is for the GoU Domestic Development and UGX594.00Bn is from external financing” (Energy and Mineral Development, Budget Framework Paper FY 2018/19, 2018).
The building of vital infrastructure, the refinery, the pipelines and energy production facilities are all dependent on funding from abroad. If it is grants, loans or paid-in-full agreements done in secrecy. Because, there are more than the shadows of this budget framework paper. It is saying a lot and the votes for the future is showing the future too. That the Ugandan economy is prospering, as the budget are needing all funding from afar to be able to build needed infrastructure. Also, needs the grants for the Rural Electrification, the ones who the state has even borrowed to do.
Therefore, this Budget Framework Paper is showing the troubles ahead. This isn’t voting for better economy, know this is dependency and also proving how much the donors and partners are involved in making sure the economy gets addicted to it.
When it comes to the refinery, the details are clearly still in the wind: “The process of selecting of the Lead Investor is still progressing and the negotiations are ongoing between Government and the selected investor. The process is expected to be completed in FY 2017/2018. There after FEED and ESIA for refinery development will be undertaken with the Lead Investor on board” (Energy and Mineral Development, Budget Framework Paper FY 2018/19, 2018). So the selecting of it is not finalized, well, for some thought Russians had secured agreement and the reason for Museveni to visit Moscow. Clearly, that ship has sailed, we can wonder if Total or any other company would do this. As Total has the biggest chairs of licenses in the Lake Albertine Basin. Time will tell, but another proof of lack of transparency, when the Ministry has to write this.
“Procurement Bottlenecks including lengthy bidding processes that require no-objections from the external financiers at each stage of execution. There is need for PPDA to revise guidelines for procurements relating to flagship projects. In addition, the following measures need to be considered: financing agreements are signed, project is almost ready to kick off. PPDA should reduce the administrative review timelines that sometimes stall progress” (Energy and Mineral Development, Budget Framework Paper FY 2018/19, 2018).
This here is initially following the guidelines of the First Amendment of the 1995 Constitution of 2017, the Land Amendment that the National Resistance Movement put forward before the Age Limit. That would fit the narrative of the Ministry and their wishes. It is like reading the same idea, to give more power to the state and able to land issues quickly.
What we can learn, also and which is important, these developments, these infrastructures projects couldn’t have been built if it wasn’t for external loans, externals grants or direct aid, if not on the license fees and the parts that is taxed. However, the grand amount and the majority of the projects needs the external funding.
This is not surprising, it is to be expected because Museveni doesn’t want to use his money. He want to spend other people’s money and also the money of the future. To benefit him today, that is why the deals are done in the secrecy…. We don’t know the reasons and the value of the licenses, the ones who is to build the refinery, even the grand agreement between the Corporations who will build the Pipeline. We know that certain companies has failed to build the dams and used bad material, but that is because of the Chinese Contractors has saved money, while being paid-in-full.
President Museveni blessed that deal and got scraps back. Time will tell, but this isn’t a good look. Not because I want it to be bad, but because the money says so. Peace.
There has been doubts and with history in mind, there is enough justification. There is enough burned down bridges, which has now disappeared into hopelessness, but today there was something significant that appeared. The Supreme Court of Kenya annulled the fraudulent and fake tally of the Presidential Election and the result giving incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta a second term. Surely, the ones celebrating and honoring the man must feel foolish today, especially the likes of Pierre Nkurunziza who has celebrated Kenyatta twice in August.
Well, the Jubilee and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) must feel heartbroken today; the token of their misfortune, the level of electoral fraud was verified. The results that gave the President another go, was not up to the level of the Constitution and the laws for elections. This must be a defeat and a victory for justice.
That the National Super Alliance (NASA) can celebrate today is so right, the reports given to the Supreme Court of activity without any consideration of the implications, shows by all errors and planned rigging that the Jubilee and Kenyatta was bound to win. The numbers, the systematic operations of forging forms and numbers on the public portal, was in question early on and is now proven to be true.
The questions of hacking, of illegal operations that was made to count in favor of Jubilee, is now also open to the market. It is not talk anymore, but verified by court. The petition victory has signaled that James Orengo and the NASA team was right. There was many grave issues and insults to democracy, to the public and their votes. The ballots was not counted and taken care of, they were insulted and extended grave misconduct in favor of Kenyatta.
This has now been overturned and give way to new polls within 60 days. Hope someone trustworthy and someone who has the capacity to run sufficient elections can run it. Someone who want to be transparent and Nobel in request of justice for every ballot. What is worse is that all international observers was saying that the elections was free and fair. However, the national and own republic’s Supreme Court said that was a lie today. The ones that was in Kenya in August, had better not arrive back in October, there lies has now been proven to the whole world.
We can only hope the just results and the ballots are respected in the second round K.O. That also Odinga who didn’t cheat gets his chance of getting to Canaan. The respect of the voters and their ballot is vital. That didn’t happen at the first round of Presidential Election in August 2017. I hope that that can happen now. There are many questions remaining, who ordered the results and who would really enjoy spoils, other than Kenyatta and his Party. Who would earn fortunes on the blatantly disregard of the people’s will?
Because they should pay for the forged attempt of thieving the republic! The victory might be in vain, if the same sort of people get to put their cards into play in the second round. We got to hope, but even as the deck is stacked on the table. There are still to this day enough actors at play, who can forge and play foul. When they have already tried once, they might try twice, especially if they do not pay for their acts against the law. Peace.