Opinion: Mzee’s arrogance towards AGOA…

“I need to advise you not to be over-concerned by the recent actions by the American Government in discouraging their companies from investing in Uganda and on removing Uganda from the AGOA list” – President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (05.11.2023).

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is an opportunity for the businesses in Uganda to export products or produce, raw material and others to the United States of America on unique terms. Which has been beneficial for other nations. While the National Resistance Movement (NRM) haven’t been able to develop or follow the terms or conditions for such is another matter. As we know the Kenyans are much more thrifty and has set the standard on these matters. That’s maybe why the President is so arrogant and brushes it off.

A key aspect in the letter from U.S. President Joe Biden on the 30^th October was this:

“Despite intensive engagement between the United States and the Central African Republic, Gabon, Niger, and Uganda, these countries have failed to address United States concerns about their non-compliance with the AGOA eligibility criteria.” (Biden, 30.10.2023).

The key term here is “non-compliance” and meaning the Ugandan authorities or government itself is breaching the agreement, which is reason for the opportunity to trade within the framework of AGOA. The Ugandan government might disagree with these conditions or terms, but has to comply to be eligible in the first place. That’s the rule that AGOA sets on anyone and they just have to comply. It is as simple as that.

However, Museveni wants it his way…

“Uganda, under the NRM, is and will succeed, regardless of what some of the external actors and internal detractors do. The further good news, is that not all the Western Countries’ actors are of the same arrogant attitude. Many, actually, either agree with us or believe in the correct principles of live and let live. Even in the colonial times, some Western actors supported our anti-colonial struggle. People like Fenner Brockway, Dingle Foot, Olof Palme, etc., supported us” (Museveni, 05.11.2023).

The U.S. legislation of AGOA is a “new” one in some senses, as it only dates back to 2020. It isn’t a colonial relic or a mechanism from the days of slavery. No, it is a modern one, which has one important aspect.

That is explained like this: “The legislation significantly enhances market access to the US for qualifying Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. It does that by allocating a special program indicator (‘D’) to approximately 6,800 tariff lines in the US tariff schedule, which allows US importers to clear such goods – sourced from eligible African countries – duty-free under AGOA” (AGOA – About AGOA).

This explanation is stating one fact, which the businesses of Uganda misses out on. They will loose out on favourable tariffs when exporting to the U.S. Market. Meaning the prices of exporting will go up and the viability to enter the market will be much tougher. On the short-term its only the ones supplying and exporting the U.S. under these terms that is hit today. However, in the long run… the ones who wants or have a chance. They will either be to expensive or to much red-tape to get there. Which isn’t better for development or trading in general.

The AGOA and principals of AGOA could be beneficial for Ugandan businesses. Especially, if export businesses and the ones who has value-added enterprises wanted to significantly enter a capitalistic market and ensure possibility of selling on a large scale. Because, that what you do, if you get a shot.

We see that the President doesn’t value this and for his often speaking of value-addition. This here is the opposite and it isn’t clever. Neither using arrogance or colonialism. The AGOA is about an opening to a market and ability to trade without to many hurdles. The AGOA has stipulations, but if you adhere to them. You get prospects of entering a market, which gives you possible profits. Therefore, you are foolish to let this one slide. However, that is what the President does and he doesn’t mind.

Actually, the President isn’t concerned… and that is telling. Peace.

The United States Trade Representative – Executive Office of the President letter to Ugandan Minister of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives Hon. Francis Mwebesa on “AGOA” (31.10.2023)

Opinion: Mzee has become a colonial overlord grabbing land in the North…

“Government land- Anybody occupying government land (Aswa ranch, Lakang, land acquired for the Madvhani group, etc.) must leave with immediate effect but in any case not later than 3 weeks from today” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 03.11.2023).

Today, we can acknowledge with certainty that the Government of Uganda (GoU) lays claims to land and expropriate it without any consideration, hesitation or plans for the ones living on it. This after years of stalemate and clashes. Because, the state has no answers and only beholden to the companies or foreign investors who “bought” the land.

That’s how the National Resistance Movement (NRM) operates. They are now giving Apaa Village three weeks to move. Others will follow in the Acholi sub-region. As the interests of Kampala/Entebbe is more important than the livelihoods or the pastoralist societies of the North. That is the message I am getting from the President.

He gives the citizens three weeks to relocate, but offers no securities, no basic ways to find new homes or land to settle on. The President is relocating families and villages all for the benefit of a few chosen ones. That’s what his doing and he has no plan or structure in place to give them shelter or a way to make a living.

What the President is now issuing is a case for the Madvhani Group, which have made agreements with the state back in the mid 2000s or around 2006 to be exact. There been plenty of setbacks and pushback on the deal. However, the state has continued and persistent that the group was to takeover 40,000 hectares of land in Amuru district and build Amuru Sugar Works.

While the mentioning of Apaa Village was to sell it to a South African Investor Bruce Martin so he got his own gaming reserve and hunting ground in the area. That was done in 2005 and continued to this day.

Another mentioned case was the sale of Aswa Ranch to the Libyan government in 1998. That’s why we know the state has worked on these cases for years and now suddenly only give a staunch warning.

That’s deliberate and a scare tactic, as there are no mechanisms or anything in place to safeguard the civilians here. Everywhere that the state has sold land. They are only becoming internally displaced people (IDPs) with nowhere to go. While the investors get prime real-estate and get huge chunks of land. That is hurting to know and the President should know better, but he has promised and the investors wants their loot. Therefore, he has to do something, because his not winning by the years going by. His not getting younger either, so he cannot enjoy the spoils if the assets and the land isn’t sold.

That is something we have to consider here, as the President just directs and orders like a colonial master over the sub-region. Where the public are just supposed to listen and if not… they will suffer consequences. The ironies of that, if they do listen… where should they go? Where and what has the state to offer them?

They have just lost everything and what they knew… so that some foreign investors could grab land in Acholiland. That’s the gig here and its infuriating. It just shows the arrogance and the entitlement of the government. As it just takes, take and doesn’t question its own behaviour here.

Acholi deserves better. They do… they are being sold for shiny objects and left out with nothing. While the President and his inner-circle is getting a piece of the action. Peace.

Opinion: U.S. Business Advisory warns about investing in Mzee’s regime

“The Departments of State, Labor, Health and Human Services, Commerce, and the U.S. Agency for International Development, today issued a Business Advisory on Uganda. The Advisory informs U.S. businesses, individuals, and other U.S. persons, including health services providers, members of academic institutions, and investors, of potential risks they may face if they are conducting, or contemplating to conduct, business in Uganda. Businesses, organizations, and individuals should be aware of potential financial and reputational risks resulting from endemic corruption, described in more detail in the 2023 Investment Climate Statement, as well as violence against human rights activists, media members, health workers, members of minority groups, LGBTQI+ persons, and political opponents described in the 2022 Country Report on Human Rights Practices in Uganda. Uganda’s enactment of the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA) on May 29, 2023, further increases restrictions on human rights, to include restrictions on freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly, and exacerbates issues regarding the respect for leases and employment contracts” (U.S. Department of State – ‘U.S. Government Issues a Business Advisory for Uganda’ 23.10.2023).

A man that is steadily promoting value addition and financial integration. The President of Uganda is failing the nation. It is going backwards and not forwards. Not in any sense and now with the latest news. The investors and other on the financial markets will shun the nation even further. This will hurt the economy and make it even less viable.

The Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) can dry up from certain parts of the world. Just like the lack of foreign donors and donor funds to cover the shortfall in the national budgets. The domestic revenue and lack of investors might some come too. As other nations will follow the United States of America (USA) and these are the ones that comes with funds. Meaning this can be a big blow to the President and his National Resistance Movement (NRM).

The U.S. authorities are late on this one, but better late than never. This is going after the pockets and advice people to spend their monies elsewhere. That’s a blow for someone who has been working on reviving an economy since 1986. The President who speaks of exports and getting products to market. Now the market won’t come to him and the ones who has the ability to purchase are asked to shun it. Meaning there will be less tangible investments and others will follow.

The NRM and the Government of Uganda should see the writing on the wall. This is continuing to damage the economy. It is continuing where the World Bank suspended funding and this will also take away the food from the plate. There will be less funds and less people will have a chance to eat.

We could see this one coming when the state and the legislators decided to target one minority on the behalf of everyone. That’s one of the main reasons, but there are certainly other aspects which is also mentioned in the text. Showing that the human rights violations and impunity has a price.

This here will hurt the pride and prestige of the President. He knows this will spark a wildfire and he cannot contain it. The World Bank didn’t seem to significant and he hoped someone else would cover the shortfall of funds. However, now… there is becoming less viable and sooner or later other reactions will come too. By that time… it’s to late and the crippling economy is upon the nation. A nation that has been run on deficit financing and now the options for fiscal stimulus or outside revenue is dwindling. People will follow this advisory and other nations will follow the U.S. line of action.

This here is tragic for the shilling and the ones who depend on FDI. Because, the message is spread and this will haunt the 11^th Parliament, State House and everyone else involved. They could see this one coming, but I am sure they just looked the other way. Peace.

A look into Bobi Wine’s response to Mzee on suspension of World Bank loans…

“It is you, Sir, who has left undone what you ought to have done, and did that which you ought not have done. There is no truth in you. Just take a long, hard look in the mirror” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

That Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine wrote a text and published it today. This is telling the importance, because Bobi Wine is the leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP) and the biggest contender for the Presidency at the moment. The 2021 elections if it wasn’t a rigged affair. It would have been his and he would have won it. However, we know the game is rigged and there is no true will of the people.

In this regard it is interesting to see what sort of retort Bobi Wine uses. Because, we know the drill and I have also retorted to President Museveni. Though this was a long awaited call, but a useful one.

Bobi Wine starts with this: “Gen Museveni, Your recent outburst about the World Bank withholding future assistance to Uganda is a clear indication of your ideological disorientation and policy nomadism that has characterised your four-decade rule. You wasted twenty-seven pages trying to distort history and divert reality, that an average reader was left wondering who is (or has been) in charge of Uganda” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

He is speaking facts, but you see how he calls him. That’s telling of the vision and how he perceives Museveni. His a General and not the President. A man of the guns and arms. Museveni was telling porkies and making a mockery attempt to swift blame elsewhere. However, that’s been his game since the start of his career. That is all Museveni knows and what he does to make himself look better.

Bobi Wine continues: “To date, you cannot account for the demise of the country’s textile, public transport, food processing, leisure facilities, agricultural cooperatives, and manufacturing capacity that made places like Jinja, Bushenyi, Masaka and Mbale shining beacons of the potential that our young country possessed. You have replaced Uganda’s public capital with miserable gimmicks like Operation Wealth Creation, replaced hitherto thriving agricultural cooperatives with non-starters called SACCOs. The NRA is not and was never the innocent, well-meaning, and foresighted actor that you portray it to be. It was and remains – as NRM – a corrupt, violent force that has played a major role in the delayed socioeconomic transformation of Uganda. Neo-colonialism is alive and well under you, Sir” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

Here again he issues the cold hard truth. The reality of what the reign of Museveni has brought. There is little to show for it and Museveni’s men has dismantled a lot of possible “value additional industries” across the Republic. That’s been done through incentives and with the hands of the neocolonial institutions after the Bush-War. As the subsidizes and the Co-Ops, and even vital agricultural boards was destroyed. So, Bobi Wine is right and Museveni is just trying to pin this all on them, instead of taking the blame himself for accepting the stipulations in office. Museveni has sold off and destroyed a lot potential for a quick buck. That’s why industries has failed and no real long-term policy has been enacted, which could have made a vast difference.

Bobi Wine further states: “Out of the nine men who have occupied the office of the President in the past 61 years since our supposed independence, you’re the undisputed champion of neo-colonial and neoliberal agendas. It is under your regime that the sale of public service infrastructure – under the guidance and encouragement of the same World Bank that you are blaming now – occurred. You have presided over the reckless liberalisation, extreme de-regulation, and sacrifice of our public sector at the altar of foreign interests. We can see through your hypocrisy” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

It is just rich reading this. The talking points and the way Bobi Wine describes things. This shows political maturity and deep understanding of things. It is commendable. The way that he debunks and says what Museveni contributed too. Which we all have seen and Museveni was a donor darling for a reason. He played and danced to their songs. Because that was easy money and he could eat of their plate. That’s why he accepted the stipulations and played with them. He didn’t have to work and still he could live lavish. Therefore, Bobi Wine undresses Museveni perfectly here.

Bobi Wine writes: “Your prioritisation of regime survival has destroyed, among other things, the district, national referral hospital system, and public health infrastructure generally. As a result, the formerly reliable hospitals in Iganga, Itojo, Mbale, Soroti, and Lira are now moribund, understaffed and under-equipped death traps that you replaced with equally miserable health centres. Your salvation lies in the fact that the United States Agency for International Development subsidises your failures by supporting critical public health needs, including catering for our military’s health and medical needs. So who is the neocolonialist here?” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

It is like Bobi Wine just shoots a hole in any argument or reasoning Museveni had in his piece. His just piercing through it. Making enough holes to call him a Swiss Cheese. Bobi Wine is cleverly telling the tale of how Aid, Loans and Grants are the saving grace of the regime. Which has been stated by plenty before him. This is nothing new, but special that someone of Bobi Wine says it this openly. As it undermines the story and the tales that Museveni wants about himself. Museveni wants to be supreme and the all-knowing leader. The man with all the answers, but like always he needs other people’s money to foot his bills. That’s why Bobi Wine’s words are so rich and detailed and utterly destroys the reasoning of Museveni.

Near the end, Bobi Wine wrote these fitting words: “Accordingly, it is the height of fiction and deceit, for you to make the deliberately false prediction that “in a few years” Uganda’s economy will hit the half-a-trillion dollar mark. A cursory look at the revenue collection challenges the URA has experienced over the past several quarters, and the high mortality rates of SMEs tells you everything you need to dismiss this baseless projection. The truth is usually brief, so I need not elaborate these self-evident points in the same way you wrote nearly thirty pages to explain your ‘successes’ after almost 40 years in power! That you even had to ‘highlight’ for the country your supposed successes should tell you everything you need to know” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

As I did discuss in my retort to Museveni. It showed that the lack of domestic revenue was a reason for the failure of progress and development. That’s why the World Bank loans, grants or aide hadn’t sufficiently created the purposed goals of investment or value of money. This is why it’s a well drafted and expose to say these things. Museveni knows his at fault, but easier to blame a neocolonial institution, than take blame himself. Because, he has had the time to do so and get things done in a proper manner. However, we all know that he prefers the get-rich schemes and eat of the plate of others. That’s what he has done and it’s the reason why the World Bank loans haven’t been enough.

Bobi Wine wrote a splendid piece here and shows political maturity. The ones underestimating him… they should fear him. He proves his calibre here and it should be respected. Bobi Wine could have taken plenty of avenues, but picked this one. Peace.

Lebanon: Reform, Recovery, and Reconstruction Framework (3RF) – Co-chair Statement by the Prime Minister of Lebanon, the UN Resident Coordinator, and Representatives of Donors and Lebanese Civil Society (12.04.2023)

Opinion: Mr. President needs more supplementary funds than the average referral hospital

Today, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) in the first week of the budget year dropped the first supplementary budget of the budget year. What is striking in this one and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is loaning billions upon billions of shillings for a possible financial recovery after the pandemic.

However, the President is now getting more funds in the Supplementary Budget than the 15 referral hospitals. Yes, the Ministry of Health getting a huge slice of the pie this time. Nevertheless, the fine print shows that the President needs 6,964,000,000 to fight COVID-19. He needs 6.9 billion shillings on his own to combat this.

The 15 referral hospitals, which has been deemed fit for additional funding on the other hand gets the handsome sum of 575,500,000 or 575 million shillings. In total 8,625,000,000 or 8,6 billion shillings. That’s the total direct budget supplement from the state to 15 hospitals in the middle of a pandemic and the second wave.

The funds given to the hospital barely have over 1,5 billions shillings more than the President. However, each hospital gets less funding and they are on the frontline. It is not like the President is giving people vaccine in Kawempe or in Makindye. Heck, he will not even do it in Ankole. The President is rather safe behind bulletproof glass in his vehicle, than ever giving a helping hand. Unless, there are some elders willing to bend their knees for him and kiss the ring for his majesty.

This is a supplementary budget to fight COVID-19 not to further salaries for additional Presidential Advisors or whatnot. Neither it is to cover expenses from the general election or what else you can imagine.

It is just baffling that the state prioritize this way. Just like the External Security Organization gets additional 1.1 billion shillings and Internal Security Organization gets 4.7 billion shillings. You can wonder how these organizations combat this deadly disease. In combination that the Ministry of Defence is getting the 10.4 billion shillings and the Uganda Police Force for some reason has the grand total of 19 billion shillings. This is all security, tear-gas and to enforce the Standard Operational Procedures SOPs or the Presidential Directives plus keeping the officers and soldiers happy during the lockdowns. Because, what does these entities has to offer in the combat of COVID-19?

That is beyond the point, right? Just like the Office of the President has little to nothing to do in the ambition to stop the spread. This just shows how mismanaged the whole thing is and lack of priority. When such vast sums of money can be spent on these parts of government. This is not to procure or get vaccines. This is not to buy PPE or produce more oxygen. This is not train more nurses or doctors. No, this is to boost the fragile ego of one man and secure his reign. Why else would he spend billions on the State House and Security, as a measure to fight COVID?

He is not kidding anyone, only himself and his fellow cadres who eats this nonsense for breakfast. This a mockery and public wastage at it finest. Peace.

Uganda: Statement by Finance Minister Matia Kasaija on IMF Executie Board Approval of extended Credit Facility for Uganda to Support Post-COVID-1 Recovery (30.06.2021)

Ethiopia: Will the World Bank accept the blocking of the funding of the Safety Net Program in Tigray?

The World Bank together with development partners has supported a Safety Net Development projects since the financial year of 2018 and it’s supposed to end by 31^st December 2020. It is called by them Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). This is supposed to support farmers and secure food security across the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE).

Clearly, the fallout between the Tigray and Addis Ababa. The result of the political stalemate between Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Prosperity Party (PP) has yet another financial implication. The PP have already blocked Federal Support of the Regional Government of Tigray. Also, collaboration between the House of Federation (HoF) and Regional Government of Tigray has ceased.

Today, the news that the Federal Government are now blocking the funds and support through the World Bank Program of PSNP. A program made for farmers, secure livelihood and give the farmers social accountability. Latest support from the World Bank was in September 2020. The Federal Government got $66m USD allocated to PSNP. The funds now blocked has to be from this.

This means the state is deliberately blocking one region from accessing funds given to the whole Republic. It wasn’t given to just Amhara or Oromia. No, it was given to the government representing the whole Republic. That means, the altering of the funding, which was intended to them all.

The funders of the PSNP should react to this. Especially, if they care for the livelihood of the farmers in Tigray. If the state had blocked farmers in Ogaden or in Oromia. There would be the same reason to cry havoc. This is wrong on all basis and only done because the PP is punishing the Tigray for not following the “orders” from Addis.

The Federal Government is punishing the farmers of Tigray. That is the reality of this. The foreign donors are blocked from giving needed aid to Tigray. Just because the PP and Federal Government isn’t friendly with Mekelle at the moment.

This is tragic that foreign aid can be used like this and be suspended, because of the Napoleon Complex of the Prime Minister. Peace.

Africa Judges and Jurists Forum (AJF): Revoke the Practice Directive threathening Judicial Independence in Zimbabwe (21.07.2020)