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Archive for the tag “Matia Kasaija”

Bank of Uganda: Monetary Policy Statement for October 2019 (07.10.2019)

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President Museveni letter to Hon. Monica Azuba Ntege – Ruling out external or internal borrowing for development infrastructure (18.09.2019)

Another look into the Oil-Road Cost: “Package 2” Hoima-Butiaba-Wanseko Road!

In the newest report of Oil Roads, which is expected to borrow funds for. The China Exim Bank is supposed to be provider of 85 % of the cost of the operation and building of the roads in these projects. I will only look into one of them, as I have previously looked at this significant one.

This is the Hoima-Butiaba-Wasenko Road. A project that was supposed to start in 2015 and was clocking in funds from the state budgets in 2017. Back in 2015, the road was estimated to cost $126m USD. Today, with the recent report, the same road is costing $179,538m USD. That is jump of nearly $50m in a five years time. In addition, of these bloated funds, 85 % of it will be loaned from China and the rest 15% covered by the Government of Uganda (GoU).

In 2017, this project was designated the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), which signed a deal in January 2016. However, by the time of the report 2019, it is another Chinese Company who has the contract. This is Chongqing International Construction Corporation (CRC) Ltd. With the recent contract, the loans are clearly getting direct back to the Chinese, as their corporations are the ones with the contracts to build. A clever way of borrowing and then getting returns.

With this mind, we can see the changes, see over the years how the price has changed. If Members of Parliament was afraid of the price per kilometre in the past. They should be now. As the changes of price on the same project has changed significantly. There is no doubt, that the Chinese government are getting added loans on each of the packages in this deal. As this is just one of the roads in question.

This is 111km is now costing 659,921,964,460.17UGX in Ugandan terms or 659bn shillings and that equals to about 5,9bn shillings. Therefore, the prices has sky-rocketed and the price per kilometre is abnormal and extremely costly. The overpriced asphalt and the consultation is in absurd levels. The previosly estimated price for this road was about 444bn shillings. Therefore, we can see rising price between the years in both currencies. About 200bn shillings growth in 5 years. 

To many cooks and too few ingredients. They are boiling soup on nails on this one. Wonder how this will end. As I felt in 2017, that the pricing of this particular road was a bit too much, but now they have just escalated it.

We can wonder whose eating, but someone is. We just don’t know who, because there been designated funds to build this one in the past and it has still not commenced. Surely, this road will be built, but at what point. However, with the added loans, the pressure should be on. Also, to secure the oil so it makes financial sense too. That the added value is there. It got to be. Because this project is over the top. This is the real OTT service, paid for by the Chinese and the tab is all taken by the Ugandans. Peace.

Uganda: Press Statement on the Inaugral Public Private Partnerships Infrastructure Africa Event in Kampala, 16-18 September 2019 (13.09.2019)

Uganda Police Force: Police Investigates Minister’s Death Treats (26.08.2019)

Uganda Telecom Limited: Influence Peddling, Abuse of Office and Fraud in Relations to Administration of Uganda Telecom Limited by Honourable Evelyn Anite (09.08.2019)

Opinion: The fall of Evelyn Anite

She had it all, she was a golden child of the President, the former radio presenter from Koboko, who became the Youth Representative MP for the Northern Uganda in 2011 and became the incumbent winner in 2016. Evelyn Anite in her second term became also a State Minister for Investment & Privatization. Where she has now shown force, but maybe she’s aiming to high, a bit to fast.

That is why the recent months, she has both expressed pressure on the clean-up for ownership, audit of and transparency surrounding Uganda Telecom Limited (UTL). A company the government had sold to Libyan owners, but had to re-corporate and restructure after the fall of Gadaffi. Now, this has turned a bitter pill for the loyal subject and minister. She has lashed out and said the mafia is out after her.

Certainly, she has ruffed some feathers, she has questioned some big-men, which will not accept to be hassled with. Anite has with her quest to clear the slate of the UTL, she has surely gone into the hidden secrets within the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the government itself. Where she should have stayed away. As the ones who does that, is the likes of Muhammad Kirumira, Andrew Felix Kaweesi and so on.

They did all say similar things like Anite. They were on the rise and was also saying there would be a moment of silence, if you pushed the forces of power in the Republic. That is what Anite now is stating too. She calls it a mafia running the government, that means she is directly a part of racket herself. Meaning, it was cool, when she was a “made man” within it, until she crossed within the boundaries and codes within the mafia. This is what it seems, because, why else would she blast and rant like this in the public?

Anite is now going far, but sounding more like the opposition, than someone who is government. She could be mixed with Besigye or Bobi Wine in this matter. There is similarities in the usage of words. Because, the tale of going after the walking dead within the UTL is to costly. That the NRM doesn’t want to show the dark-side of the business and how its done. This is why, she suddenly shouldn’t continue to pursuit it.

Anite is therefore, receiving the hardship, which is usually intended on the dissidents and not the ones whose loyal to the projects of the President and his cronies. Evelyn though she was made and part of the inner-circle. Instead, she has crossed a path, which the NRM doesn’t accept. That is why Ante is in trouble and shouts out so loud.

Instead of winning, she’s continue to loose. Anite isn’t succeeding …. she is failing and not finding her way out of the trouble that she has put herself in. She could have let it all go, because this is more a ego-boost and to prove her place within the hierarchy.

She was a soldier, a loyal subject and a “made-man” but not one of them. An outsider, who got a big position. Now she is afraid of the enforcers, as the confidants and the consigliere advice behind closed chambers, maybe has aimed at her. Because, she broken a secret code and added pressure on something she shouldn’t have.

That is why she has fallen, why she’s trailing. She hasn’t resigned or even backed away from the mafia. She’s still there and trying to get through. But will she? Will she end up like others whose been taken out or is she another Abiriga in the waiting?

We don’t know, but she surely has fallen from the pedestal and is now a commoner with a fancy title. Peace.

Uganda Telecom Limited: Hon. Evelyn Anite letter Permanent Secretary of Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development – “Re: Audit of Uganda Telecom Limited” (02.08.2019)

Uganda: Fresh report states that the debt-service has grown 129% within one financial year!

 

The Republic of Uganda’s economy is really reeling, it cannot be sustainable as the Government of Uganda is growing their debt like there is no tomorrow. While the fiscal growth is substantially lower than their rate of debt-service. As the growth of debt combined with lacking growth to substantiate the shortfall.

In addition, with the knowledge of added expenses, growing shortfall of funds in the upcoming Financial Year of 2019/20 and the election year of FY 2020/21. There will be more add-ons on the need for debt service, as the state already had loans outstanding, which the grace period ends and the debt-service begins on. Therefore, the amount of loans will transpire even more, than what is in this report. The endless cycle of debt and growth of it, is worrying, as well, as the state thinks that the magical wand of oil-money will clear this debt. Even as the first operational oil field and such has been postponed yet again.

Just look!

“The total Government of Uganda external debt service by end of FY 2017/18 amounted to US$275.75 million, which was an increment of l29% compared to US$120.62 million in FY 2016/17” (…) “Debt service of Uganda’s external debt is on the rise and outstripping growth of the country’s income, currently at 6%. This poses risks for future debt repayments, especially as the country continues to acquire external debt at less concessional terms, especially to finance the oil development programme” (P: 6-7, 2019)

“It follows that as interest rates increase, the debt service obligations of Government also increases. The rise in external debt interest costs attests to the fact the government is increasingly contracting non-concessional debt, which will increase the repayment burden” (P: 24, 2019)

“However, this may not be the most likely scenario, as most projects have been discounted and some excluded in the macroeconomic framework. With the development of the NDP III, additional project and other pipeline project related to the oil developments and other infrastructure, will increase the financing requirement of government in the medium term. The inclusion of the above projects will re-classify Uganda from low risk of debt distress to moderate risk of debt distress or high risk if the export shocks materialize. A downgrade would have significant implications for the program with the IMF, where Uganda’s credit risk rating will worsen; implying that accessibility of nonconcessional financing will be limited. This will limit credit to Uganda to only concessional and grants financing.” (P: 28, 2019)

You don’t need to smart about it, as the state has bigger budgets with higher shortfall in the economy, combined with debt service and higher interest payments on the growing amount of loans. You know sooner or later, the economy will tank, as the fiscal responsibility is taken for granted and that fresh funds are lacking, because these are taken out of the economy to finance the payments of the old debts. Instead of generating growth and actually naturally grow the economy, by spending and investing as a state. The money is taken away to service debt, instead of building the state. That is what they are doing and at a alarming rate. Peace.

Reference:

NEC1-19 – ‘REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ECONOMY ON THE STATE OF INDEBTEDNESS, GRANTS AND GUARANTEES’ June 2019, Parliament of Uganda

Uganda Telecom Limited: President Museveni letter to Hon. Evelyn Anite – “Re: Audit of Uganda Telecommunications Limited” (16.07.2019)

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