The Republic of Uganda’s economy is really reeling, it cannot be sustainable as the Government of Uganda is growing their debt like there is no tomorrow. While the fiscal growth is substantially lower than their rate of debt-service. As the growth of debt combined with lacking growth to substantiate the shortfall.
In addition, with the knowledge of added expenses, growing shortfall of funds in the upcoming Financial Year of 2019/20 and the election year of FY 2020/21. There will be more add-ons on the need for debt service, as the state already had loans outstanding, which the grace period ends and the debt-service begins on. Therefore, the amount of loans will transpire even more, than what is in this report. The endless cycle of debt and growth of it, is worrying, as well, as the state thinks that the magical wand of oil-money will clear this debt. Even as the first operational oil field and such has been postponed yet again.
“The total Government of Uganda external debt service by end of FY 2017/18 amounted to US$275.75 million, which was an increment of l29% compared to US$120.62 million in FY 2016/17” (…) “Debt service of Uganda’s external debt is on the rise and outstripping growth of the country’s income, currently at 6%. This poses risks for future debt repayments, especially as the country continues to acquire external debt at less concessional terms, especially to finance the oil development programme” (P: 6-7, 2019)
“It follows that as interest rates increase, the debt service obligations of Government also increases. The rise in external debt interest costs attests to the fact the government is increasingly contracting non-concessional debt, which will increase the repayment burden” (P: 24, 2019)
“However, this may not be the most likely scenario, as most projects have been discounted and some excluded in the macroeconomic framework. With the development of the NDP III, additional project and other pipeline project related to the oil developments and other infrastructure, will increase the financing requirement of government in the medium term. The inclusion of the above projects will re-classify Uganda from low risk of debt distress to moderate risk of debt distress or high risk if the export shocks materialize. A downgrade would have significant implications for the program with the IMF, where Uganda’s credit risk rating will worsen; implying that accessibility of nonconcessional financing will be limited. This will limit credit to Uganda to only concessional and grants financing.” (P: 28, 2019)
You don’t need to smart about it, as the state has bigger budgets with higher shortfall in the economy, combined with debt service and higher interest payments on the growing amount of loans. You know sooner or later, the economy will tank, as the fiscal responsibility is taken for granted and that fresh funds are lacking, because these are taken out of the economy to finance the payments of the old debts. Instead of generating growth and actually naturally grow the economy, by spending and investing as a state. The money is taken away to service debt, instead of building the state. That is what they are doing and at a alarming rate. Peace.
NEC1-19 – ‘REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ECONOMY ON THE STATE OF INDEBTEDNESS, GRANTS AND GUARANTEES’ June 2019, Parliament of Uganda
We can lie to ourselves, we all do it now and then, and even the most holy of us does it, but acts like saints. Nevertheless, the realities are hard-hitting and not as people tend it too be. In the recent days, there been steady scandals in two institutions connected to the government of Uganda. This being the Bank of Uganda and Uganda Telecom Limited. Both whose place is vital and both under “ownership” of the state.
They have very different roles in society, as one is the Reserve Bank and the one that follows direct guidelines of the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development, while the same Ministry owns the other! That is why there are some of the same aspects, as the stories are pouring out.
The BoU is rocked by lack of due diligence, lack of minutes, lack of working after protocol and procurement. The UTL is lacking leadership, lacking structure or even basic control from the state. Both is run by the MoFPED and still has the same issues. It is like they are two ugly siblings and none of these bastards can get a date.
The BoU is the epitome of corrupt behaviour from buying pens, securing quick-fix funds for trading commercial banks and so on. While the UTL have shady-back-door deals with willy-nilly abroad in Mauritius or Nigeria, even some skeletons in Libya. Still, even if Hon. Evelyn Anite tries every avenue and use all parts of the dictionary, she still doesn’t have the powers to sack the ones running UTL, because the MoFPED is involved and who knows how the President Museveni micromanages these state owned enterprises. Since his known for guidance everywhere in the Republic. That is why Hon. Anite had to send a letter to him to further her cause in the UTL saga.
We can lie to ourselves, but not that it does any good. At this point, the involvement of the state, the known actors and only the small-fries are getting caught. The ones doing the heist, doing the handshakes and getting the kick-backs from there is working directly with the State House. That is well known and not unknown, they even ask permission before doing so. This is what they do. Its only the ones who doesn’t ask who ends in the files of various departments fighting corruption. Even if they end up there, they might lose the paperwork or minutes before investigation, as the loyal subjects clear the house. So, that the big-man on top, doesn’t get humiliated.
This is just what is up and what is going down. These men who runs these SOEs are allowed to what they do, because the higher power let them do it and they are all eating. Especially, when the “high above” sanctions it, its all cool, but if he doesn’t get a cut; than there is an issue and someone have to pay. That is the end-game, that is why it continues and why it floats like this. Not because this is a healthy practice or even a way that the state should govern, but this is what they are known to do.
The UTL and BoU have similar issues, they are doing similar acts, but with different enterprises. We can act a fool, but that will still not save the face of the ones running it. Sooner or later, someone will fall on the sword of their master. Right now its not needed, but when these two institutions needs a boost of confidence, someone will swallow their pride and do their last act of mercy. That is just how it goes. We just don’t know who will fall and for what cause, other than saving the high above from humiliation. Peace.