Gabon: A Constitutional Coup to divert Power because of the illness of the President

There now been three weeks of illness, sickness and  hospitalization of the President of Gabon, Ali Bongo. Who is the second Generation President of the Republic. Clearly, the severe situation is more dire, as the power-vacuum is visible.

Because this week, this was reported by Le Gabon:

“By ruling only on a vacancy of power, the Gabonese Constitution and Article 13 revealed a flaw that the country would have done well. With the vacancy of the power which is well taken into account by the Constitution, the judge François de Paul Adiwa-Antony added a paragraph very useful in the circumstance. “In the event of temporary unavailability of the President of the Republic, certain functions devolved to the latter may be exercised either by the Vice-President of the Republic or by the Prime Minister on special authorization of the Constitutional Court seized by the Prime Minister or a tenth of the deputies, members of the government whenever necessary “. Thus, the Vice-President of the Republic, Pierre Claver Maganga Moussavou, was able to preside over the Ministerial Council of this Wednesday, November 14, 2018. The Constitutional Court “as a regulating organ of the functioning of the institutions, authorizes the vice-president of the Republic to convene and preside over a council of ministers which will focus exclusively on the agenda attached to the request of the Prime Minister “in the words of its president. The Gabonese policy is not blocked by the temporary absence of the head of state, but this will not stop the rumors. Only images or a declaration of Ali Bongo can calm the most fertile and the most sorrowful spirits” (Le Gabon – ‘Pas de vacance du pouvoir à Libreville’ 15.11.2018).

So, because of the illness of Ali Bongo and the lack of protocol in the Constitution, the Constitutional Court has ordered an Amendment, which fits the current regime. Where the Vice President or the Prime Minister, can preside over the governing functions, as an interim effort. This leading the Council of Ministers and other functions to secure the running day-to-day government. That has been done without elections or even a democratic gesture.

The President fate is still uncertain, there are outlets proclaiming his death, even today. There was the same two weeks ago in Cameroon. Where the media-house was practically closed by the Cameroonian Authorities after it did so. Therefore, the lingering doubt is in the air.

It does not help that the African Union (AU) comes out with this statement yesterday:

“Chairperson Faki is deeply concerned by unfolding developments in Gabon linked to the state of health of President Bongo. Chairperson Faki further calls on all political stakeholders and institutions in Gabon to show the necessary collective leadership during this time in order to preserve unity, peace and stability in the country. Chairperson Faki further reaffirms the African Union’s strong commitment to the full respect of constitutional order in the country. The Chairperson will deploy a fact-finding mission to Libreville in the shortest delay” (African Union – ‘Communiqué on the situation in Gabon’ 17.11.2018).

We can expect Pierre Claver Maganga Moussavou to be in-charge and set-up shop without any elections. As he takes control while Bongo’s uncertain fate in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the amendment and the change this week. Shows that the ones inside the Cabinet and the closest to power was ready to take control. This they by technicalities and not by a popular vote, not even ensuring a clean process. The Gabonaise people have been used as pawns again. Just like they did when the father of the President died and his son took over.

Now the Courts decided and changed the structure without any consideration of the implications and even checking who was most eligible. Again, the regime has taken the power and left the opposition out. They are locking Jean Ping out by any means. Even changing the constitution by Court Orders. Just to ensure the continued rule of the One-Party.

With Moussavou there will be continuation of the dictatorship and no imminent change. Just another French supported puppet to secure the French Businesses and Corporations, while the Gabonese are struggling. This is the deep reality, that Paris and Libreville are seeing. This done by a mere Court Order and not ushered change by the public. If they stand up against the regime. They are usually thrown behind bars. Therefore, the regime are pushing through and not giving way.

This is a constitutional coup by Moussavou and the ones in inner-circle. Who have awaited their turn. They are barring others from power, as they are feasting on the opportunity. Since Bongo is in the hospital in Saudi Arabia. Where his fate is still uncertain. Peace.

Kenya Defence Force: KDF Operational Update – Lamu County (24.09.2018)

Gabon: Minister de l’Eau et de l’Energie – Communique de Presse (16.02.2018)

Opinion: The Liberation Day can only be celebrated with Mzee and with no one else!

The NRM Day, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) day, the Liberation Day. The day that the National Resistance Army liberated Uganda. Are in the making and being prepared so that the President can hold his speech and be crowded by his soldiers, his Crime Preventers and who ever he has bought out from obscurity in the recent months.

So the news today, was rare or unique. It is more of the same. That other people are not allowed. It is just like when he hold the State of Nation Address, all channels and broadcast on TV and Radio had to send his speech. The same can surely also happen in this instance. Because the only man who is clearly free and can be opinionated is Museveni. The rest have to follow his suit and his orders. The State House commands. So that the President and his men, are now putting orders on how they are celebrating the 32^nd Liberation Day isn’t surprising. It follows a pattern of control from above, from His Excellency, who cannot be that excellent, when he has to micro-manage every detail and get everyone in-line for every event. Every function and every order, has to be rubber-stamped by him. It’s just his despotic mind, who speaks democracy, but orders everyone around and wants everybody to accept his hollow mind. That is just the way it is, so when Daily Monitor says this today:

“The government has cautioned the opposition and any other groups against any plot to hold parallel liberation day celebrations. The caution was sounded by the minister for presidency Esther Mbayo during a press conference at media centre ahead of the celebrations slated for Friday January 26, 2018. She said every time government organizes a national function, there are groups that threaten to organized parallel arrangements. She said this will not be tolerated this time round. “I am just warning whoever is organizing to stage a parallel function to desist from it because the long arm of the law will catchup with him,” minister Mbayo said. She said there will be only one national function accepted that day and it will be held at Boma grounds in Arua Municipality. “So whoever wants to stage parallel arrangements should stand warned,” Mbayo said” (Jumbe, 2018).

This is the memo, the gist and the story. That the Minister Mbayo is warning and coming with stern signals of how to behave. The public can only have one key celebration, nothing in Kololo or on another field. The only one matter at Boma Ground in Arua. The rest has to cease, where the President is, is the only place to be liberated, the others have to follow orders and be under the spell of the President. No freedom, no celebration in Kampala, Jinja or Mbarara, no no, only celebrate in Arua at Boma Ground.

The Liberation Day celebration only matters at the function of the President. If he isn’t there, it doesn’t matter. It is not about liberation, if the supposed liberator isn’t there. The kingpin of the NRA has to be at the function if it supposed to have any value. President Museveni have to show up and be graceful, spill his beans and everyone got to listen to his wisdom. If not, they are not liberated. The liberation was for him and his men, not for the republic. The people was just tools for his liberation. Therefore, a party is only a party, if he started or joined the party. Peace.

Reference:

Jumbe, Benjamin – ‘No parallel liberation day celebrations shall be allowed – govt’ (26.01.2018) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/No-parallel-celebrations-shall-be-allowed-govt/688334-4276634-ioin6/index.html)

Opinion: Now that the World Bank has new priorities, they will most likely not loan to the pipelines in East Africa!

 

There is certain movements that will strike as more expensive for the East African Community (EAC). This being for the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Government of Kenya (GoK), who has big plans of petroleum pipelines from their oil-fields and to the coast. That being from Turkana to Lamu Port. While the Ugandan oil goes from Hoima to Tanga Port in Tanzania. Both development and industrial projects will have issues with the funding. The World Bank has supported massive infrastructure projects in both countries.

Therefore, for the two counties big development and oil industry, this is giant set-back, since they have to find funding and loans for the pipelines on the open market. Even with higher interests and making the profits of it lesser, than it would have been with a World Bank loan. It would not hurt the pocket as much as it does on the open market. The banks wants more profits themselves and also make sure they are paid-in-full.

With all this in mind. There are speculations, but first. Parts of the self-answering service. Before we look at the reactions in Kenya and Uganda. All of are important, as the state is involved in the licensing and building the pipelines. They are directly into the development and procurement of the pipelines. That is why this is big blow for the administrations and their possible tax-profits on it.

Word Bank Q&A:

“Q. How is “upstream” oil and gas defined?

Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas” (World Bank, 2017).

“Current projects in our portfolio would continue as planned. However, no new investments in upstream oil and gas would be undertaken after 2019, unless under exceptional circumstances as noted in the decision” (World Bank, 2017).

Kenya Pipeline:

“The announcement by the bank, which has significant interests in Kenya’s oil prospecting sector, does not bode well for the country’s anticipated entry into the club of oil producing nations beginning next year. Analysts said they do not expect an immediate reaction to the announcement even as they acknowledged that it takes the shine from oil in the long term” (…) “Locally, the World Bank is offering technical support to the Kenyan government, through the Kenya Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, to prime all stakeholders for commercial oil production and sale. The six-year programme is scheduled to run until February 2021 and involves the World Bank managing a Sh5.2 billion fund set up by investors from Germany, Norway and Britain. The World Bank’s private lending arm, International Finance Corporation, is however directly involved in Kenya’s oil fields, having a 6.83 per cent stake in Africa Oil, the Canadian exploration firm with interests in northern Kenya oil blocks” (Mutegi, 2017)

Uganda Pipeline:

“The pipeline, is expected to be completed by the year 2020, when the country is scheduled to start oil production. In fact, Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni and his Tanzanian counterpart recently commissioned the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The two leaders laid mark stones for the crude oil pipeline in Mutukula, Kyotera district and Kabaale in Hoima district. Total E&P Uganda, a subsidiary of French oil giant, Total S.A, is spearheading the construction of the crude oil pipeline on behalf of the joint venture partners. Adewale Fayemi, the general manager, Total E&P Uganda says discussions are ongoing to discuss on the formalities of how the pipeline will be run. Already, an agreement has been reached that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will be run and managed by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) – private pipeline company. This means that a private company will be incorporated with joint venture partners – Tullow Uganda, Cnooc Uganda Ltd and Total E&P Uganda, and the governments of Uganda and Tanzania as shareholders in the company” (Ssekika, 2017)

Certainly, this will put a strain on the projects. They have to deliver another type of arrangement to make sure they get funding and have the funds to pay the added interests the banks wants. The added points on the dollar and the interest-rates will hit state-owned firms and the state itself. Since the pipelines most likely becomes more expensive and will be less profitable.

That the World Bank is pulling out of these projects is all within line of the Paris Accord, as they have professed is the reason. Still, this will make these projects more expensive and make sure they are earning less on it. Unless, the crude-oil prices are going up to a level that makes these investments even more profitable. That is only for time to tell. Since it is costly projects and also sophisticated to build. There is needed lots of expertise combined state planning to achieve the development plans.

This is just the beginning, but the pipelines and these investments are vital for both Kenya and Uganda. As the governments are already borrowing state funds on the possible earnings from the oil reserves in their basins. Therefore, they need to drill and need the petrodollar as quickly as possible. Peace.

Reference:

Mutegi, Mugambi – ‘World Bank dims Turkana oil hopes’ (14.12.2017) link: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-dims-Turkana-oil-hopes/996-4227848-u02v8n/index.html

Ssekika, Edward – ‘East African Crude Oil Pipeline: The Inside Story’ (11.12.2017) link: http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/economy/east-african-crude-oil-pipeline-the-inside-story-details-emerge-of-how-the-crude-oil-pipeline-will-be-financed-managed.html

World Bank – ‘Q&A: The World Bank Group and Upstream Oil and Gas’ (12.12.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/qa-the-world-bank-group-and-upstream-oil-and-gas

Eritrea: Press Briefing note on Attacks/threats by States against UN Human Rights Experts (21.11.2017)

Eritrea: Statement of ELS on the Protest of October 31 (02.11.2017)

The Eritrean Law Society (ELS) is closely observing developments that have led to, and that have followed after, the unprecedented civilian protest of 31 October 2017, which occurred in the heart of the capital city of Eritrea. The protest was prompted by the announcement of a drastic government decision that affected the status of educational establishments administered by Eritrean religious institutions. Another major motive for the protest is the arbitrary arrest of respected elders and spiritual leaders, notably Haji Mussa Mohammed Nur, who strongly opposed the government decision.

Although the details of causalities are not yet fully known, ELS is concerned by the fact that brute force, including live ammunition, was used to suppress the protest, which was nothing more than a peaceful demonstration against a drastic government measure affecting the lives of thousands of people. In our view, the protest signifies one fundamental reality. In today’s Eritrea, citizens have no choice of whatsoever nature in pursuing their individual and group aspirations, life plans, goals, and purposes. Eritreans do not also have access to independent and impartial institutions, including courts of law that can safeguard their fundamental rights and freedoms in the event these essential entitlements are wantonly violated by government authorities.

History dictates that no population can be ruled forever under the yoke of unbearable authoritarianism. There is an urgent need in Eritrea for a full return to a system of governance based on constitutional order, the requirements of democratic accountability, and respect for the rule of law, including the protection of fundamental rights and freedoms of the Eritrean people. ELS would like to take this occasion to make a call on the international community and those who can play a role by pushing for a full return to a democratic system of governance in Eritrea.

Meanwhile, the following reminder is also important for all peace-loving and justice-seeking Eritreans. We shall stay the course and remain vigilant against all sorts of divisive and cheap political machinations orchestrated by the authoritarian regime in Eritrea, its brazen apologists and messengers. It is always important to remember that the regime will make continuous recourse to methods that promote its narrow political agenda as well as frustrate the momentum ushered by the protest of 31 October.

Eritrean Law Society
Executive Committee
November 2, 2017

Uganda Communications Commission – Public Notice: “Warning Against Irresponsible Use of Social and Electronic Communication Platforms” (14.09.2017)

Maldives: PPM Statement – “Opposition’s disruptive antics in Parliament signal frustration at week-long failed efforts to incite violence on the streets of the Capital – PPM Secretary General” (31.07.2017)

Dr. Kizza Besigye’s advice for termination of the NRM!

If you ever want the clear advice to bring down the dictatorship of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, who now acts and lives like he owns the Republic Uganda. Than if you want to get rid of that and want to use the advice of Forum for Democratic Change founder and former Presidential Candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye. Than his words and inspirational words should be for you. He explains the whole story and the whole theft of the state and how it was built around the President. How Museveni has taken all the institutions and the state is embedded with him. But that we already knows, therefore I have taken the part that people should listen to and use. The true defiance and defy the Museveni state, so that there are possible a peaceful transition from his rule. Where the state doesn’t belong to Museveni or the Movement, but to the people. The Citizens has a government who cares about delivery and not if Museveni get an expensive enough airplane or helicopter. Take a look!

Outtake from the Press Conference of Dr. Kizza Besigye today:

“Regardless of what the regime does, the people of Uganda are definitely closing in to take back their power and embark on a TRANSITION to a new dispensation.

The NRM/Museveni Junta has no legitimacy to amend the Uganda Constitution as it’s planning to do. This will be an activity of the TRANSTION PROCESS.

Immediate task: Termination of the NRM/Museveni Junta:

The following needs to be done to terminate the Junta’s control of our country:

1) Intensify the “awakening campaign”, for most Ugandans to become active in the processes of achieving a transition. Everyone has a role to play in achieving this.

2) Forming activist networks to make it possible to act together and to be coordinated.

3)Everyone seeking a democratic transition should take deliberate actions, individually or in concert with others to disempower and break down the Junta. Each one’s actions, however small, contribute significantly towards the desired change.

4) Public servants, including those in the security and military are called upon to join the struggle for democratic transition.

5) In coordination with other political and civil society formations, we’ll soon start various activities that will disempower and bring the, now fragile, Junta to an end.

The transition:

A transition process will start when the Junta ceases the control of the state- either, through popular actions or a dialogue process.

The key activities of the transition period are:

1) Government of National Unity.

2) A comprehensive review of the Constitution.

3) Rebuilding State institutions to ensure transparency in recruitment and a national character, a high standard of performance and public accountability; non-partisan character; high standard of discipline and professionalism etc.

4) Truth telling, justice and reconciliation.

5) Free and Fair elections” (Dr. Kizza Besigye, 11.07.2017).

The acts of defiance and trying to coordinate the powers to be. Make the state dissolution over the citizens who doesn’t act upon the oppressive measures dropped by the central government. That they does what they can locally to make changes to the state. This done in demonstrations and stop using the state based operations that makes the NRM regime so rich and can rig themselves into power. That they follow a leadership similar to Besigye and other who trying to dismantle the Presidency. For the simplest reason of getting democracy and getting rid of the dictatorship of Museveni. These words of Besigye should be seen as the guidelines for the patriots and the ones who wants the Republic run by elected men, and not selected men by the NRM. This is how it is now.

The NRM acts like they own the nation and the state, the State is controlled from the State House and the orders are from there. There aren’t anything done without the State House involved, that isn’t a healthy state. That is a Banana Republic and an undemocratic state where one-voice control it all. There is time for change, it has been a long time for change. This cannot only be done by the freedom fighter Besigye, but has to happen by the will and acts of the people. The people have to say, enough is enough. The impunity, the theft and the ignorance of needs of the people is enough. Time to stand-up and be together in the struggle for just ice, liberty and accountability. For a regime who wants to deliver government services and also give taxation with representation. Something that isn’t done now by this government and the President. Peace.