Opinion: Junta’s won’t last forever…

 

“You could live by the gun, or die by the bullet” – Tony Yayo – ‘Live By The Gun’ 2005

The army commanders and the ones taking power by force. They are forgetting one thing… their honeymoons and their transitional stages cannot last forever. The soldiers and the ones within their ranks are waiting their turn. They are seeing how the putschists are eating and they also want a plate.

Sooner or later… it will be their turn. That’s why junta government doesn’t last. Most of them fall rather quick or loose total control. The centre is fragile and only strength is the trust between army commanders. Army commanders that are now corrupted and high on power. They have gone from being people who defend the borders and kills terrorists. To suddenly ensure civilian authorities, government tenders and whatnot. Which gives them endless opportunities to get a cut.

They quickly forget how they got there. The ones who take power promises heaven on earth. There will be democratic institutions, free and fair elections and everything else that you could ask. These leaders will say they are there to save the nation and the sovereignty. That’s what they do and had to do it. If they didn’t… the Republic would be lost.

The Generals and the other high ranking officials who has government posts won’t suddenly go back to the barracks. No, they have finally gotten a way in and they didn’t even have to sway the public. They just did what they do best and outsmarted an unpopular head of state. That’s why the coup d’etat went so smooth and cost so few lives. Because, nobody really wanted the guy as a President and continue the agony of his government.

Therefore, the people is giddy when the lonely fella is off the throne. They are happy to see someone else and finally have hope. Nevertheless, in most cases they become corrupted, greedy and selfish. They will do some good work and build up some prestigious policies. However, you shouldn’t have your hopes up. That is only done to legitimize this affair and ensure the public give them a second chance to continue.

At one point or another. The truth will be revealed and how they are misusing the offices. As they are pillaging and looting the coffers. They have found a way of siphoning funds and spending it like drunk sailors abroad. Buying real-estate, SUVs and even houses for their mistresses. That’s what they do and they are proud of it too.

These army men who took power hope people are naive and believes their stories. The porkies that gives them life. That’s all they have… regardless of it the facts of the matter. They will not save you or the population. It might seem so and they influence the people to think so. However, they will stifle the press, the stop civic education and dissidents will be in trouble. The ones who dares to challenge them will suffer or even be silenced until eternity.

That’s why no one will be scorned. They will block people out of patriotism and national interests, but sooner or later this will narrowed down to all criticism. The ones in the inner-circle will defend and shield the ruler. He will be the supreme one and nobody should ever question his judgment. The ones that does… ends up in the slammer or a six feet under.

This is why they aimed the gun and won power. The moment they silence the guns and trust in their own egos. That’s when someone could do the same thing they did and with hostility takeover. Another coup d’etat and the circle continues. One big-man becomes several of big-men.

I don’t have to much hope. They might sound splendid and be orally smart as leaders. This doesn’t mean their heart is pure or their motives are to serve the public. They come as men of arms and soldiers of fortune. The army commanders wouldn’t have toppled governments if it wasn’t for self-interests too. They read the signs of the times and saw an opportunity.

The army commanders succeeded, but the moment they are a little slow or late. That’s when someone will strike them down. Peace.

Opinion: Coups are inevitable in our time…

The latest in coup d’etat in Gabon is only a reminder of how it is done. The army intervention in Libreville decided the fate of the ruling regime and deposed of it quickly. Today we are now discussing the fact and people are trying to figure out the future.

That’s why I am writing piece. The coup d’etat isn’t a new thing. That sort of military activity or sponsored means to end has existed for a long time. Coups have been supported internally and externally. Every nation has a various of different reasons for why it happens.

One key one is lack of good institutions or distribution of power. Meaning it could easily access all power by just taking out one man. If you got rid of one person and his associates. You are now in sole custody of power, because you got rid of another person title and office.

The “strongman” or “tyrant” is the reason for the viable option of coups. The sort of people who decrees, orders and who hold people captive. They use elections and other mechanisms to keep themselves legitimate. However, it is only the facade as the reality is much more grim. The darkness overshadowing their existence and their livelihood. They can only survive if they keep the fear, intimidation and the check on the pulse on anyone who doesn’t follow command.

That’s why coup d’etat’s happens and they also get welcomed by the public too. They see it as a relief. Even if the army commander isn’t elected or selected by the people. No, they are also future tyrant and possible brutal leaders who will quell all dissent. However, on the day and the early days of operating. It seems just like they are cleaning the house of the stench of the former despot.

That’s why the coups are in order. Yes, they are possibly quagmire and problematic. They create a fabric of government controlled by a minority group and possibly also the armed kind. These are the army commanders and the army structure left behind from the predecessor. Which again questions if they will pursuit all avenues for relief or investigate the breaches of human rights violations of the predecessors. As that means several of high ranking officials could be implicated or even sentenced or be behind bars for their actions. That is a price they have to pay. Especially, if they want to be sincere about reform and making a difference from the past leadership.

However, there are big doubts they would do this. It could not only hurt the bottom line, but also cause friction and endanger the new status quo. That’s why this is nearly never happening. Because, who wants to implicate themselves in crimes and acts of sinister activities, even if it was done on orders by a deposed dictator.

The coups will be condemn and seen as breaking the constitutional norm. Even when that is true and coups is a fallacy. Still, the elected government, which tricked themselves in, again and again. The ones who used the “legitimate” route, but did so with dishonest means. They did another type of coup and tricked the nation. These people weren’t the most popular or wasn’t the majority. However the algorithms and the rigged polls suggests so. Meaning the little civilian elite and the cronies of the despot is re-electing themselves on behalf of the nation. Instead of doing a coup with guns and ammo. The coup is done with data and altering electoral procedures to get the “announced results” and “win”.

When this is happening again and again. I understand why people don’t trust elections or even their leaders. I understand why people celebrate the demise and the toppling of tyrants. It all makes sense. They have lied themselves to the top and thinking nobody will figure it out. However, as we see… time and time again. They get found out and loses it all. Peace.

Union des Comores: Conseil National de Transition (CNT) – Communique du CNT – Recadrage a effet immediat (13.09.2022)

Guinea-Bissau: Embaló has survived a coup attempt

“Local media reporting a barricade around the government palace has been setup by the military and are preventing locals from getting to the building. Government announcement: President Umaro Sissoco Embaló “I’m fine, the situation has been mastered” confirmed a coup had been attempted as well as “There have been many deaths but I’m fine” confirming that there had been multiple fatalities” (Outback Piano, 01.02.2022).

We should be worried, as this is an escalation in Guinea-Bissau, a Republic, which a President are easily in trouble and have a hard time to finish their elected term. The same might easily happen to President Embaló.

Other reports states:

“A security source with contacts inside the Government Palace said an unknown number of people were hit by gunfire. A second source said two people had died, but their identities were unclear. Sissoco Embalo had begun chairing an extraordinary cabinet meeting around 10 a.m., entering the building with a large security device, a diplomatic source said” (Rufin Wakilongo – ‘Guinea-Bissau: Gunshots around government palace, ECOWAS condemns ‘coup attempt’’ 01.02.2022).

As things are progressing and things will leak out. The ones behind the coup d’etat isn’t clear yet. That is uncertain and maybe the President is trying to clear the ranks as well. We cannot know that at this very moment.

What is clear that this news hit today, as the coup attempt happened, which seems that someone trusted the fragile moment and that the real protector of the President would be gone wit hthe General dying in Cuba.

Another interesting reporting is this:

“The boss of the Bissau-Guinean army died yesterday Monday, January 31. “The Emballo Palace Totem died on the island of Cuba where he was hospitalized the day before the coup attempt,” said a source quoted by seneweb. General Biagué Na Ntan, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (Cemga) “has always thwarted insurrections often led by his Balante relatives”. In reality, we continue, he “protected President Emballo by using his influence among the Balantes”” (SeneNews.com – ‘Guinea Bissau: Death announced of the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces’ 01.02.2022).

Time will tell, but Guinea-Bissau has been hit with plenty of coup d’etat’s and this isn’t new. What is clear that the President and his Cabinet needs to fix their security and safety. If not the same that happened to the President in Burkina Faso, might happened to him. As he was able to survive one coup attempt, but on the second try. The coup makers was able to circumvent and overthrow the current leadership.

The President shouldn’t take it easy, but know his living on borrowed time in office. As there are people obviously plotting for his downfall. He needs to address this and finds solutions ahead. If not… he will sooner or later fall to another cunning colonel or lieutenant general with some aspiration of presidency. Peace.

Opinion: The Master of Coups – Speaks up against it! Yet again…

“I would like to invite African leaders to sit down and exchange views on how to build strength in Africa. We (in Uganda) have some experience but what is happening now is going to take us back.  Civilian leaders have failed to build strength through strong armies, the problems happening in more parts of Africa today started with the attack on Libya by people (the West) who could not listen to Africa. All terrorist groups who were in Libya are now spread up in the whole of Sahel, those soldiers (coup leaders) are not accountable to anybody. Nobody elects them. How can they do a good job for people?” – Yoweri Tibuhurwa Kaguta Museveni (26.01.2022).

There is a saying, that a man shouldn’t throw stones in a glasshouse. However, President Museveni don’t mind being selective about history or by his own actions. It is not like he was elected through the popular vote or had the ability to be civilian in office. No, this man rose through the ranks with the usage of heavy weaponry and militia tactics. He used rebellion and insurgency to his own benefit and when he entered office; the man never let go and that’s why he celebrates 36 years in office today!

His Excellency has not only brought down several of predecessors with the guns. He has done so across the board and has successfully brought down head-of-state in the region too. It is not like he has been the voice of democracy or the will of the people. No, this man prefers his way and having his allies all over. He doesn’t want anyone who stands in his way or can take away some assets. Because that is the gist of things.

Museveni fears for a coup d’état and a revolution at home. This man should know perfectly well. The moment the soldiers aren’t eating or having a field day. They might stir mutinies and start to renegade against the state. The President should fear for that.

Since Museveni haven’t fostered a fundamental change at home. No, he has offered a “No Change” and little to nothing for progress in the Republic. The same ills and bad governance are growing in his state. As he has a patronage as big as a stadium and a bloated government with little to no proper oversight. He has dozens of organizations and commissions, but they are just handpicked elites who are there to eat and not spoil the party. Therefore, nothing is moving forward, and the President has little to show for it.

He speaks of strong armies will counter this, but because of the strength of the militaries in the West Africa. Is partly the reason for the coup d’états. As they have the manpower and the wits to succeed. Just like Museveni did in the past. As he could take down with his allies’ other former heads of state. Where he could win and conquer with all means at his disposal. He didn’t mind or didn’t care about the consequences, since well, he took charge, and he got the throne.

That’s why when the rebel of the 1980s speaks up against the military government of West Africa. A real hypocrite. As he could never cease power with the ballot. That’s why he had to cheat the current day Archbishop Ssemogerere even in 1996 after failing even worse in 1980. Therefore, his was the political amateur who thought he was God to Men at an early age.

He wants armies loyal to the throne and to people like him. The old man fears that the armies would be deemed loyal to the state and the republic’s themselves. As his selfish interests lay in the control of the armies and the power of the militaries. He don’t want to see his own general or anyone conspire to do the same to him. That would be the picturesque copy of what happened to Al-Bashir or Mugabe for that matter. He would rather lay in coffin, than see the demise of his own reign while breathing.

We just know the hypocrisy and it’s needed to be called out. Since it would make no sense to be silent about it. Especially, when his serving such a militarized state and misuses government offices on the daily. It is not like he has tools or the concern for the betterment. No, that is just empty pleas and lies of old. The old man shouldn’t speak of coup d’états, even if he fears them like disease.

Well, he wouldn’t be here and be the commander-in-chief today, if it wasn’t for a successful coup d’état in 1986. Peace.

Union des Comores: Presidence de la Republique – Communique (25.01.2022)

Museveni: How many times can you sell the same dream?

These things appear to be happening quick. Todays launch of his candidacy as President and Chairman of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). It is just all protocol and more of the same. It is neither funny nor insightful. Just another day in the Republic.

That Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is a Presidential Candidate was written in stone. It was in the hieroglyphics and in the ancient scrolls long before we were born. This is a way of life and how it treats us.

The removal of both term limits and age limits has all been in favour of one man. The man who proudly put these mechanisms in the new Constitution but deleted it when it didn’t fit him anymore. He didn’t change the law for the betterment of the Republic, but for his own selfish gain.

We can act like today is special, that the announcement is shocking. Breaking news. Read all about it. Well, we knew this was happening. Only the blindfolded, the ones with naïve thought someone else would pass the throne. That would be a miracle and a sensation. This would have sparked amusing tones and wonders. Because, it would not concur with the legends of ancient times.

This has been the case since the takeover of Kampala, 26^th January 1986. Since then it has been all Museveni. He has ruled supreme. Been the Don and the Kingpin. The man in-charge and the only man with a vision. The one who is only fit to rule, and the rest must beg for mercy. That is what it is.

That’s why today isn’t special. His been selling the same story since that day. The day of fundamental change, the correct line and all of that. It has been his mustard seed of hope, which has turned into despair. We can act like everything is cool, but the man who will drop a manifesto for his 8^th Term. Will most likely promise similar things of the past. The same sort of promises and possibly new lingo, but still the same tools from the shed.

It is a revised 10-point programme. The same sort of pledges and promises of a dream never succeeded. Because, he never intended to put the work in or deliver any of those. Just by mere luck that donors paid the duties and costs for a while. To keep the charade going.

Now, we are in 2020. In a time where his preparing for 2021. Alas his legacy is distorted, as people are arrested for poems, Facebook posts and jokes. There is no bottom, only an endless pit of suffering for the ones who oppose this man. Sooner or later the law catches up with you and give you a phony charge. A charge that you will keep and will haunt you.

So, will you believe in the man that has given out promises all his career and all his life? Only to determine or not even prioritize them. A man who has decided his own reign counters all other obligations of the state. Everyone must be jolly that he rules, and that his words are divine.

Today, was all ready prepared. Everything was aligned with it, the stars, the moons and the nsenene. Everyone was ready for this. It was inevitable. This wasn’t a journey; it was a road already taken. We have been here before and we just repeating the same thing over, and over again. Peace.

Opinion: Museveni, running for his eight term… [1986-2026]

Well, the scholars will say its his 6^th Term, which I defiantly says “no” too. That is not true. They are currently saying his on his fifth term. That he was elected in 2016 for his 5^th. However, if you do that, then your taking away his first 10 years in power. You are initially deleting the years between 1986 to 1996 and that is not fair. That is unjustified behaviour and rewriting history. The Republic of Uganda doesn’t deserve that.

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is currently in his Seventh Term. You can calculate the 5 times and see that I am onto something. That the man who has run the Republic are in his 34 years in power and by 2021 is at his 35^th. By the end of the next term he will be close to 40 years. Which by dividing 40 by 5 turns into 8. It is every simple Math.

I know, I will read in the big-media houses like BBC, AP News and others where it will say that his going for his 6^th Term. These fellas who write that doesn’t care that he went a decade in power without any elections. That he suspended it and didn’t want to hold any. No, they are just making click-bait and not holding the President accountable. He should be counted for the first years of his presidency. Even if his achievements from those years are long forgotten and his killing of enemies those years. Are also long time buried and dead.

Never the less. Let me just reissue this short time. So, that everyone understands my equation and how I get to 8^th Term for Museveni. This here should be the gist, but I am sad to say. The international media will say its 6^th because they don’t know better.

Short Timeline:

1986-1991 First Term by seizing power/coup d’etat,

1991-1996 Second Term by suspending elections.

1996-2001 Third Term by First Election after the coup d’etat.

2001-2006 Fourth Term, Second Election. Abolishing Presidential Term Limits.

2006-2011 Fifth Term, Third Election – First Multi-Party Elections since the Coup d’etat.

2011-2016 Sixth Term – Fourth Election.

2016-2021 Seventh Term – Fifth Election  -Abolishing Presidential Age Limits.

2021-2026 Eight Term –Sixth Election

This is just my gist of it and how easily it can be calculated. Something, I find important, because all years should count. Not only the timeline from the election in 1996 until now. Than the same media houses should say he has ruled for 24 years, instead of 34. Why?

They are not counting it in the sense of terms, when they are accepting not to count the 10 years of suspended elections and coup d’etat. If your straight about, be straight forward and not glean in the middle.

Take the whole account, the whole time served and not just from the first election. That is just fair. This President has rigged elections and will rig the upcoming one in 2021 too. It is just a matter of levels and to what extent. Also, what sort of play he wants to do. He decides. His legacy is already tarnished and this election will not make it better.

His the soon, eight term president. Remember that. It is insane, but still true. Peace.

Union des Comores: Declaration – Suite a l’Arrestation de Mohamed Moina porte parole du Dawoula Ya Haki (12.05.2020)

L’Union afraicaine deplois des observateurs electoraux dans le cadre du premier tour des legislatives en Union des Comores (16.01.2020)