It wasn’t only that the President graced the final rally the day before, or that the military and police used massive amount efforts to undermine the competition. No, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) had no message to send, so they had to arrest all Forum for Democratic Change Polling Stations agents and the big-shots, as they we’re not allowed to directly monitor the counting or the Return Forms from the Polling Stations. As well as we know the CCEDU are not allowed to observer the elections anymore. Therefore, the civil society and opposition was working with bent knees, while trying to run.
That the NRM won was made on the sky before the polls, as the military even took over Tally Centre before the ballots arrived to the polling stations. The talk of democracy or even level playing-field is foolish in this manner. When at the days of the polls, 20 FDC Polling Agents was arrested. These was the big-shots that was arrestd: Oddo Tayebwa and Stanley Katembeya.
To further prove the allegations. FDC MP Francis Mwijukye reported this earlier in the day:
“Police Director of Operations,Asuman Mugyenyi has ordered for the arrest of FDC leaders and agents in Sheema North where a parliamentary byelection is on going today. So far 15 leaders and 20 agents have been arrested. Meanwhile Am also surrounded here at Nyabwina primary school” (Francis Mwijukye, 08.10.2018).
When that is the case, as well as the police everywhere and the military too. The intimidation and the acts of government was made for the NRM to win. There was no other way out of this. The opposition wasn’t working together behind the candidate, which they have usually blamed FDC for their own works. So, now they left them all alone without any sympathy or putting up camp for the final week. There has been nothing from the ones talking of unity, the FDC was alone against NRM. Therefore, the ones speaking of ill of FDC’s actions in previous elections, better remember, that they have gone behind and supported other parties own candidates in By-Elections, but none gave the favor back here.
That Naome Kibaaju won wasn’t shocking with the manner this went down. If she thinks this is a whole-sum victory, she is apparently wrong. Not because the FDC lost. Any party can loose and that is justified. However, it is not justified when the tallying is done in darkness and the monitoring of the ballots has been only done by the government-friendly agents. That is easy math and shows the disgraceful acts of state.
This here saga continues. The good news is that this one didn’t end up in directly torture, forged up charges and more impunity from the state, other than the preventative arrests and the acts of intimidation. Because the NRM has no message to give the public.
The only thing make me happy, that there was no funeral because of this… there been to many dying over By-Elections and each one of them is one too many. Peace.
Today is the open MP slot left behind after the Sheema Municipality By-Election earlier this year, when Hon. Elioda Tumwesigye one his second race since 2016 and had to resign the Sheema North. That is why there is a by Election in Sheema North and why the NRM is having all the stakes in. While the Opposition are alone with one candidate and one party, as the rest has left them behind. You can wonder why, because recently, there has been joint opposition races in the by-election.
However, this has been a weird by-election, but that is maybe because of the aftermath of the Arua By-Election in August 2018. When the army, the Special Force Command and the opposition there has been charged with treason ever since. That is maybe why there are only two candidates and the NRM is ready with the same weapons today.
We haven’t seen the joint-opposition behind the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate, neither seen the critic against the NRM candidate either. The President joined the campaign on the last day before the election and held a big rally. But there haven’t been much scope or any seemingly to hit the radar. Before today, when the polls are appearing. The real NRM is appearing and they have to use the tools of intimidation and arrests to secure their results, even when they are just going against one candidate. They don’t have the message or the candidate to bring it in without all of that.
“At Kigarama Sub County headquarters,the said Tally Centre for tomorrows Voting in Sheema North Constituency. As we speak, Military and Army have already taken over the center ahead of stake holders meeting with the electoral commission. Its supposed to start at 2pm and now 3pm. The meeting has not started. This seems already an army engineered election which calls for more vigilance and confrontation” (Augustine Ojobile, 07.10.2018).
“Men in ‘police’ uniform commanded by ASP Kaganzi from Mbarara have arrested Hon. Odo Tayebwa at Kabutsye Town Council” (Forum for Democratic Change, 08.10.2018). Also reports of an arrest of Stanley Katembeya today as well. Therefore, the FDC are getting into usual trouble, as they are using their powers to control them.
“Heavy police and UPDF deployment has taken place in Sheema North Constituency in western Uganda as voters elect a new MP today. The race is tight between Naome Kibajju of the ruling NRM party and Guma Nuwagaba who defected from the NRM to opposition party FDC and the security men are said to have deployed across several sub-counties in the constituency” (Capital FM Uganda, 08.10.2018).
There are clear message sent by the NRM, that they are not losing this constituency, as they had it previously and intends to keep it. They have sent the Military to the Tally Centre yesterday, certainly not only at the one spot, but on the ones that matter. Where they can ensure the results are configured and rigged well. As the Opposition doesn’t have the manpower or reach to have checks- and balances.
The FDC are alone swimming in this and their campaign might have been good. Their candidate might be in question himself, as he was a loser in the NRM Primaries. The NRM seemingly still uses all intimidation and arrests to secure the outcome. They do not trust the Naome Kibaju candidacy to win the By-Election. If they did, they wouldn’t need the army and the police to do, what they do.
As long as there is no extra judicial killing and another funeral because of this By-Election. Then that is good somehow, though the NRM has little to bring to table, when they need the Security Forces to spread their message, which is, we rule, we reign and don’t try to stop us. Peace.
This Sheema North By-Election is the latest of plenty By-Elections during the 10th Parliament, as there been plenty of these, because of the new districts and the sudden deaths of Members of Parliament. However, this one is coming at a precious time. As the Police and Army are more alert, the violence are getting more striking and in the open. The blatant disregard isn’t only for the high-level activists and the leadership of the opposition. But anyone can be beaten to pulp and anyone can be shot by a stray-bullet. That is why, couldn’t the Electoral Commission and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) halted this one?
There has been enough death and problematic activity since mid-August. This is just mere months after and the ramifications of the latest by-elections is still in the wind. The wind-shield of the President is just one out of plenty accusations and possible unanswered violent activity. As the torture of the opposition leaders, their charges and the legal jeopardy many are in. This one will not go as the previous ones has. Where the camping of Opposition until final days of voting. The By-Election have looked like war-zones, but the deaths of civilians and the use of Presidential Guards (Special Force Command) of late, puts the hope for a peaceful outcome much less likely.
This Sheema North By-Election, which open up after NRM MP Elioda Tumwesigye had one his second seat and open the previous one he won. That is why, this election even are scheduled, as the one in Arua Municipality was because of the assassination of Hon. Ibrahim Abiriga. Therefore, the sudden acts and the control from the NRM. Is the reason for these extra races.
At this point, it is hard to believe in peace, as the authorities are speaking that the Security Organizations are acting with restraint, as they shoot live-bullets into crowds and beat the public with sticks. They are acting as occupants in their own country, instead of having steady trust, they are beating the people into submission. If not, that what they hope with the physical torture and hurt.
The 8th October 2018 is supposed to matter, this is to vote for their representative in their district. However, at this point, who will die? Who will be tortured and who will be detained is the questioned? What sort of narrative will the government push to forget their vile violence against the civilians and the public in general?
Because of this moment will we really care about if NRM’s Naome Kibaaju or FDC’s Richard Guma. I have a really hard time to digest this. As the end-game of Arua is still playing out, the deaths and all the victims, as so many people are on bond and awaiting trial. Therefore, the Sheema North seems just like a pinch of salt in wounds. As the beatings are not yet even healed. The lack of tolerance and space are being squeezed. Therefore, the authorities could have waited and postponed this.
It is hard to celebrate, and the donated bikes to the public, will be impounded if the NRM looses. Just like it did in Rukungiri. So, the Sheema North should expect it is only given to them, as a token, if the NRM wins. They double down if they loose and we knows this.
Lets just hope that this doesn’t become bloody, hurt more people and that the final days of the By-Election turns as tragic as the whole Arua did. Because no place should become like that. However, the NRM just wants to signal that it costs to stand in their way. That is why SG Lumumba had to talk about staying loyal to the NRM who came with these “gifts”.
We know what they are. The people should know what they are, a small deposit and if they are not getting anything in return, they collect it back. As the constituency was a bad investment.
Let’s pray, but we know that Bosco is a unforgiving man, who calls the opposition by many names. So we just have to prepare for another funeral. Even if these are supposed to be joyful occasions, where people are supposed to do their civic duty of electing their representative to the next-highest office. Peace.
If you would think that the National Resistance Movement would leave the new Municipalities MPs and other elected officials to the Opposition parties. You know it would be a lie. That the NRM are supposed to celebrate, but as the ruling party, they still lost Apac Municipality to the Uganda People’s Congress and lost Bugiri Municipality to the Justice Forum.
What is striking is that in Apac the NRM lost to someone who has faked his own death, Patrick Ochan, is a unique character, who forged money from Centenary Bank and declared his own death in 2006. Still, that was not enough for Obote’s son or the NRM to beat him in 2018. That says a lot of the state of NRM and also the opposition.
That Asuman Basalirwa won the Bugiri Municipality was a big deal and the NRM used all the big-guns there to sway the public. While Robert Kyagulanyi used his star-power to boost his campaign. The Forum for Democratic Change tried, but didn’t succeed either. However, it ended in the hands of the JEEMA Party and their only MP in the Parliament.
The rest of the districts like Nebbi, Kotido, Sheema, Ibanda and Njeru went all to the NRM. Sheema was also heavily contested and worrying signs yesterday, when the reports of late evening voting past fixed time for it. That means, the NRM could have countered the methods and secured it by late voting, which is fixing the score in their favor. As the trailing FDC in Sheema, was very close and the reality shouldn’t shock you.
This is like giving the opposition some posts, just so they exists, but still making sure the NRM have the majority. Just like they always do. There is always rigging and bribery, even voting tourism, where the NRM are ferrying people to vote in their favor. That could have occurred yesterday, but because of lack of observers and also intimidation from the army and police.
The Opposition should not shake their heads. They are working against the machine, they are not in a level playing field. The President are doing what he can wipe them out of the map. Therefore, only the dreamers would expect the FDC to get big. NRM won most, but is what they have done in most by-elections since 2016. It is only Jinja-East, Rukungiri and Kyadondo-East where the Opposition have won. The rest the NRM have taken. The NRM are usually the winner of By-Elections.
It is forgetfulness that hits you when you remember back to the rest of the By-Elections. Therefore, getting 2 out of 7 is a good score in a way. Also, the President gets what he wants. The majority and security of the NRM Caucus. That is all expected. To think otherwise, is to be naive, that the NRM is going to give the opposition opportunity to overcome them. As long as the President is breathing, he will not accept that and will rig to secure otherwise. The President is not democratic and not planning to become so. Peace.
I have collected various sources the preliminary reports from Bugiri, Sheema, Apac, Kotido and Nebbi. This are not the official results, the are first released, when the Electoral Commission is releasing them Return Form for Transmission of Results, which is verified ballots from each polling station combined in the district. Therefore, until those are released, the numbers are jumping.
Bugiri have most likely gone to JEEMA, Sheema might swing between FDC and NRM, Apac could become a UPC MP, Kotido could go to either FDC or NRM, Nebbi are expected FDC, but might get rigged for NRM. However, this is just the preliminary results and the reality will be different when the EC and the machine have used their time. That is the longer the time for the results, the more worry is the for securing it in hands of the regime and not for opposition candidates.
Asuman Basalirwa and the Justice Forum won the MP contest for Bugiri Muncipality, that after a knocking campaign together with Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine. Therefore, the opposition got this post and carved this newly created municipality out of the map of the President. They should not expect any development there, if the words of the President is sincere. Forum for Democratic Change candidate and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) lost here, they didn’t have the capacity or the ability to gain popularity, like JEEMA and Bobi Wine. No one had that moxy to do so.
There is a tight race between the National Resistance Movement candidate Virgina Plan Mugyenyi and Forum for Democratic Change candidate Dr. Elioda Tumwesigye. All reports through the day have been tight and swinging. But with time the FDC candidate had better numbers, but the final tally will really tell.
Patrick Ocan of the Uganda People’s Congress are expected to win the municipality over the National Resistance Candidate Akai Ayumu. The other independent candidates are trailing behind the NRM and UPC. This here seems like the stronghold of UPC get their votes, just like they have done in this area and the NRM are losing here too.
Here in the district, there been dozens of arrests of UPC members, the official number is 18 individuals on election day. Also, there are reports of ferrying voters and also open bribery.
Peter Abrahams Lokii was the National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate here, while Moses Oryono Okot Mabeno are the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate. While the preliminary results in the newly created district have put the NRM in front, but only added independent candidates, therefore, you can wonder if the Electoral Commission have dismissed the FDC Candidate in spite before the election. Since, the reports was that FDC was gazetting a candidate.
Robert Onega are the Forum for Democratic Change candidate, the National Resistance Movement fielded Hashim Sulaima, than you have Patrick Aloysius Okumu Ringa, running as an Independent, but leaning towards NRM. Three more key Independent Candidates are Betty Udongo, Berocan Okurulal and Enrico Opio. However, how all of this will work out.
In this district there been reports of low-voter turn-out. During the evening, local radio station and New Vision said Sulaima have won the district. However, that wouldn’t be surprising, as the election rigging that have been reported was massive, as even open boxed with pre-ticked ballots was coming to the district last night.
We just have to see how this goes. But there is a lot in the air and see how this falls to ground. Let see them forms and get these results verified. Don’t postpone that, but deliver credible results, even as the observers from CCEDU are suspended for these elections too. Which is concerning, because than the CSO of volunteers are not able to report and make sure the rights of the voters are taken care off.
By-Election done in darkness, deliberately done by regime. Remember that, so that they can come with other reports, if that fit their paradigm since the CCEDU and Opposition will just fight with arguments. While CCEDU could have come with issues on the ground and also filed reports for the future. That should worry every citizen, that the NRM does this. Peace.