Opinion: Now that the World Bank has new priorities, they will most likely not loan to the pipelines in East Africa!

 

There is certain movements that will strike as more expensive for the East African Community (EAC). This being for the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Government of Kenya (GoK), who has big plans of petroleum pipelines from their oil-fields and to the coast. That being from Turkana to Lamu Port. While the Ugandan oil goes from Hoima to Tanga Port in Tanzania. Both development and industrial projects will have issues with the funding. The World Bank has supported massive infrastructure projects in both countries.

Therefore, for the two counties big development and oil industry, this is giant set-back, since they have to find funding and loans for the pipelines on the open market. Even with higher interests and making the profits of it lesser, than it would have been with a World Bank loan. It would not hurt the pocket as much as it does on the open market. The banks wants more profits themselves and also make sure they are paid-in-full.

With all this in mind. There are speculations, but first. Parts of the self-answering service. Before we look at the reactions in Kenya and Uganda. All of are important, as the state is involved in the licensing and building the pipelines. They are directly into the development and procurement of the pipelines. That is why this is big blow for the administrations and their possible tax-profits on it.

Word Bank Q&A:

“Q. How is “upstream” oil and gas defined?

Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas” (World Bank, 2017).

“Current projects in our portfolio would continue as planned. However, no new investments in upstream oil and gas would be undertaken after 2019, unless under exceptional circumstances as noted in the decision” (World Bank, 2017).

Kenya Pipeline:

“The announcement by the bank, which has significant interests in Kenya’s oil prospecting sector, does not bode well for the country’s anticipated entry into the club of oil producing nations beginning next year. Analysts said they do not expect an immediate reaction to the announcement even as they acknowledged that it takes the shine from oil in the long term” (…) “Locally, the World Bank is offering technical support to the Kenyan government, through the Kenya Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, to prime all stakeholders for commercial oil production and sale. The six-year programme is scheduled to run until February 2021 and involves the World Bank managing a Sh5.2 billion fund set up by investors from Germany, Norway and Britain. The World Bank’s private lending arm, International Finance Corporation, is however directly involved in Kenya’s oil fields, having a 6.83 per cent stake in Africa Oil, the Canadian exploration firm with interests in northern Kenya oil blocks” (Mutegi, 2017)

Uganda Pipeline:

“The pipeline, is expected to be completed by the year 2020, when the country is scheduled to start oil production. In fact, Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni and his Tanzanian counterpart recently commissioned the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The two leaders laid mark stones for the crude oil pipeline in Mutukula, Kyotera district and Kabaale in Hoima district. Total E&P Uganda, a subsidiary of French oil giant, Total S.A, is spearheading the construction of the crude oil pipeline on behalf of the joint venture partners. Adewale Fayemi, the general manager, Total E&P Uganda says discussions are ongoing to discuss on the formalities of how the pipeline will be run. Already, an agreement has been reached that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will be run and managed by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) – private pipeline company. This means that a private company will be incorporated with joint venture partners – Tullow Uganda, Cnooc Uganda Ltd and Total E&P Uganda, and the governments of Uganda and Tanzania as shareholders in the company” (Ssekika, 2017)

Certainly, this will put a strain on the projects. They have to deliver another type of arrangement to make sure they get funding and have the funds to pay the added interests the banks wants. The added points on the dollar and the interest-rates will hit state-owned firms and the state itself. Since the pipelines most likely becomes more expensive and will be less profitable.

That the World Bank is pulling out of these projects is all within line of the Paris Accord, as they have professed is the reason. Still, this will make these projects more expensive and make sure they are earning less on it. Unless, the crude-oil prices are going up to a level that makes these investments even more profitable. That is only for time to tell. Since it is costly projects and also sophisticated to build. There is needed lots of expertise combined state planning to achieve the development plans.

This is just the beginning, but the pipelines and these investments are vital for both Kenya and Uganda. As the governments are already borrowing state funds on the possible earnings from the oil reserves in their basins. Therefore, they need to drill and need the petrodollar as quickly as possible. Peace.

Reference:

Mutegi, Mugambi – ‘World Bank dims Turkana oil hopes’ (14.12.2017) link: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-dims-Turkana-oil-hopes/996-4227848-u02v8n/index.html

Ssekika, Edward – ‘East African Crude Oil Pipeline: The Inside Story’ (11.12.2017) link: http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/economy/east-african-crude-oil-pipeline-the-inside-story-details-emerge-of-how-the-crude-oil-pipeline-will-be-financed-managed.html

World Bank – ‘Q&A: The World Bank Group and Upstream Oil and Gas’ (12.12.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/qa-the-world-bank-group-and-upstream-oil-and-gas

Congolese rebel Tshibangu and Meru Aspirant Governor Mwenda connected by looted gold!

The rebel and former Lieutenant General John Tshibangu who has left the during “Africa’s World War”. He has been reported and rumored to been a part of the M23, but that was never official, neither was any of his other enterprises since. He has been reported for violence in Kasai-Oriental in 2012 and trying to create a revolt in the Congolese Army. He has started and together with close members running a rebel group, who even recruits fellow rebels in Central African Republic as well as in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Here is some of the brief news from the rebel. Before the questionable transaction in Kenya, by the outlaw and the conflict minerals in the hands of Kenyan businesses. They should know better!

Therefore, this has been recent reports of the man:

“For John Tshibangu, his two collaborators were in Bangui visit because they have family on site. “Two of my men were arrested four days ago in Bangui: Colonel Freddy Libeba, my deputy in charge of operations, and Alexandre Mithsiabu, the intelligence director of our movement. They have their hands handcuffed since Friday, “also confirmed for his part, the colonel deserter of the Congolese army to the head of the FPCCD. He accuses Joseph Kabila of organizing the tracking of opponents inside and outside the DRC and said they fear for their lives if they were to be extradited. No demand for extradition has been formally sent by Kinshasa for the moment, but the will has been expressed, said one in Bangui. “We rose up because Joseph Kabila did not win the elections in 2011, and everyone knows. But we have been observing for a while the negotiations led by the bishops and we realize that Mr. Kabila does not respect the signed agreement. We can not let it happen because article 64 of the Constitution allows us to block the road by all means. That’s why we were raised, “said the FPCCD leader” (MediaCongo, 2017).

“Friday, June 9, 2017, at least 3 relatives of Colonel rd Congolese John Tshibangu, were arrested in Bangui Central African Republic. They are Freddy Libeba and Alexander Mitshiabu, according to the confession of Colonel Tshibangu, who confided to the press because he fears that their extradition in the DR Congo. “I confirm that the two men were arrested. They are involved in activities of destabilization of the regime in the Central African Republic, but also in the DRC, “the Central African security and interior minister, Jean Serge Bokassa, quoted by Voice of America as saying on the telephone. The Central African statesman assured that an investigation is under way and further arrests may follow. “There are other acolytes who could be arrested. And there are many here. For now, we are leaving the case in the hands of the judiciary and we can later decide to extradite them to the DRC, “added Minister Bokassa. In the Central African Republic, the authorities are actively investigating the alleged members of the CTCCF, John Tshibangu, a Congolese political-military movement close to the former M23 rebellion suspected of links with Central African armed groups from the former Seleka. Investigations obviously triggered after the arrival of the Congolese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Leonard She Okitundu, three weeks ago. Freddy Libeba is a DR Congo subject who appears in the UN expert report of December 2016. He would have arrived in Bangui in July of last year. According to a source close to the investigation, he lived in the CAR under a false identity and was charged by the leader of the FCCPD, Colonel John Tshibangu, to recruit men from the Congolese diaspora rd and to conclude an agreement with an elder Leader of the former Seleka, Joseph Zoundeko, for possible operations in the DR Congo as in the Central African Republic. Since Zoundeko was killed, but Bangui suspects the CSCFP also to participate in the operations of the Coalition in eastern CAR” (J.N., 2017).

When you would know that the rebel who are using all sort of funds to ignite violence and oppress people, even use it buy arms and ammunition to fight government and other militias, the Kenyan enterprises should sway away from the 1000 kilograms of gold worth USD 37 Million. This happen in April 2017, months before the news of violent and arrests of people surrounding his movement in Central African Republic, but it still shows the capacity of the former General in the Congolese Army. That he can cross borders and use his position to gain and train more rebels. This could only be done with the money to buy needed equipment and pay his ‘soldiers’.

Because, Eye on Security Company received 1000 kilogram of unrefined gold. The monies of this gold and the value of USD 37 Million. This was put in Diamond Trust Bank. And put under the company of Sea Land Destiny Limited. This shows that illegitimate funds and conflict minerals are entering the Kenyan financial system and banks.

The ones make sure of this transaction is:

“Eye on Security is a firm being supervised by an inside and out luxuriously experienced CEO. Mr. Mbijiwe Mwenda is a previous missile administrator in Kenya Air power. Aside from working air and ground rockets, this squadron additionally handles uncommon operations in counter terrorism and salvage operations. His administration as a marine has completely prepared Mr. Mbijiwe with sufficient learning of each point in security. Mr. Mbijiwe served in the power so passionately and he conveys even an uplifted level of passion to this firm. He is dead set to work with determination in making this nation and the whole world a superior spot to live” (Eye on Security – link: https://www.eyeonsecurity.co.ke/team/).

The rich Security Analyst and CEO and founder of Eye on Security, has even been thought of as a Jubilee Candidate for Governor in Meru on the Jubilee Ticket. This was reported on KTN News earlier this year. He even had a statement of certainty of others, while the truth of his company isn’t that swell.

Like this one from 22^nd January 2017:

“As a Meru leader, am ashamed that campaign materials of an aspirant or opposing party can be pulled down in a move clearly aimed at weakening them. This is undemocratic and cheap. Political victory is not gained by physically harming or maiming your opponent! Real men go to political battle democratically. They fight it out in the field and the best wins. No one goes high by bringing others down! We expect leaders to observe political decency! Only cowards do that kind of shameful thing! The youth is the strength of every rising community and they shouldn’t be misused. The role of the youth in politics is not to create an environment of despondency and violence but engage in constructive politics. Meru is greater than any individual, political formation or political movement. A people united can never be defeated” (Mbijiwe Mwenda, 22.01.2017).  

What is amazing on the claim of the corporation of the aspiring governor of Meru, Mr Mwenda stated: “We, Eye On Security, further confirm that the goods in our custody are legally earned and cleared of non-criminal origin, free on any liens or encumbrance and freely transferable upon the instructions only of the authoritized signatory (depositor)” (Eye On Security, Mr. Mustafa – placed on 12^th April 2017). Certainly the company of the aspiring governor should know and look into the history of Lt. Gen. Tshibangu who is well-known rebel and recent history isn’t peaceful. Certainly, the company has no trouble with the way the gold came into their possession and how they transferred funds from Diamond Trust Bank.

This story is clearly not been told and not been touched, how a Meru Governor Aspirant Mwenda are involved with Congolese Rebel and his looted gold. This is like novel, a fiction, but the paper that has been released proves the story. The other was just quick research on the fellows involved in the transaction. The rest is up to you and to see if someone differs on the story. Because the details are there and the others, are actual reported by various sources. Peace.

Reference:

J.N. – ‘FPCCD : John Tshibangu, Freddy Libeba et Alexandre Mitshiabu, ses proches, arrêtés en RCA’ (16.06.2017) link:

https://lemaximum.cd/fpccd-john-tshibangu-freddy-libeba-et-alexandre-mitshiabu-ses-proches-arretes-en-rca/

MediaCongo – ‘RCA: des rebelles du colonel John Tshibangu soupçonnés de lien avec l’ex. Seleka’ (16.06.2017) link: http://www.mediacongo.net/article-actualite-27546.html

Kenya: Potential U.S. Military sale to Kenya in support of the fight against terrorism (18.02.2017)

U.S. House Representatives wants to block the January Arms trade sold to the Kenyan Government!

“The arms trade – an intricate web of networks between the formal and shadow worlds, between government, commerce and criminality – often makes us poorer, not richer, less not more safe, and governed not in our own interests but for the benefit of a small, self-serving elite, seemingly above the law, protected by the secrecy of national security and accountable to no one.”

― Andrew Feinstein

As of today there two United States Representatives from the Republican Party Ted Budd of North Carolina and Duncan Duane Hunter from California that for their own reasons to stop sales of U.S. arms to Kenya, this they have forwarded a joint resolution. This was first from Ted Budd, but Duncan Hunter became his co-sponsor of the bill. Of today it has been transmitted to the Committee at the House Foreign Affairs that will work on it, before initial voting.

“That the issuance of a letter of offer with respect to any of the following proposed sales to the Government of Kenya (described in the certification Transmittal No. 16–79, sent to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate pursuant to section 36(b)(1) of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2776(b)(1))) on January 19, 2017, is hereby prohibited:

(1) Twelve Air Tractor AT–802L.

(2) Two AT–504 trainer aircraft.

(3) Weapons package, technical support and program management” (Budd & Hunter, 2017).

It is not long ago since this was sanctioned to the Kenya Defense Force and their missions, as this was a supplement to the on-going missions that the Kenya contingent in Somalia and might even be used as blue-helmets inside South Sudan. Still, the U.S. Representatives think these will be misguided and not well used arms for their ally in East Africa. This is the double-standard and double moral from the U.S. counterparts that easily has dropped and sold this sort of weapons to others, but has to all of sudden sanction Kenya for buying the same thing.

Just take a look at the timing of the deal between the U.S. and Kenyan earlier in 2017:

“The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress of the possible sale on 19 January and disclosed the potential sale on 23 January” (…) “The DSCA said Kenya had requested the sale of up to twelve Air Tractor AT-802L and two AT-504 trainer aircraft, weapons, technical support and programme management worth $418 million” (…) “This proposed sale contributes to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of a strong regional partner who is a regional security leader undertaking critical operations against al-Shabaab and troop contributor to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM),” the DSCA said” (…) “The proposed sale provides a needed capability in the ongoing efforts to counter al-Shabaab. The platform maximizes the Kenyan Defense Force’s Close Air Support (CAS) ability because it is a short-field aircraft capable of using precision munitions and cost effective logistics and maintenance.” (DefenceWeb, 2017).

So a purchase accepted in January is now in question in February, as the new Trump Administration will not care for the allies and friends as such before. The DSCA sanctioned the sale on the 23^rd January 2017 and now on the 14^th February 2017 the U.S. Representatives questions the sale. So the AMISOM mission and their allies who fights in it doesn’t matter as much, as that was the destination for the arms and technical weaponry in this transaction. That the sales of close worth over $400m that suddenly goes into the wind!

We will see if the Foreign Affairs Committee at the House of Representatives will work with this and see if this will go for voting in the House or Senate to sufficiently go forward with joint communique of Ted Budd and Duncan Hunter. That then will become legislation as the deal will not happen as the Committee will put forward a motion or legislation that the stops the arms agreement and trade between the DSCA and the Government of Kenya. Therefore the U.S. Arms trade to the Kenyan Defense Force.

This story is certainly not over. Peace.

Reference:

DefenceWeb – ‘US approves possible Air Tractor, weapons sale to Kenya’ (24.01.2017) link: http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=46563:us-approves-possible-air-tractor-weapons-sale-to-kenya&catid=35:Aerospace&Itemid=107

Representative Ted Budd (R-North Carolina) & Representative Duncan Duane Hunter (R-California) – ‘H.J.Res. 72: Relating to the disapproval of the proposed foreign military sale to the Government of Kenya of Air Tractor aircraft with weapons, and related support’ (14.02.2017)

The Battle for the Oil the Coast; Double pipelines seems to be the END-game: Kenyan on their own, while Uganda picks route through Tanzania!

There was not too far ago when the Government of Kenya was dreaming in their wild pipedream to advance their own ideas and manage to hook the Ugandan Government so they wouldn’t continue with the progressive agreement with Tanzanian counter-parts. In the end it seems like the waves are long gone. The wind from Lake Albert never seemed to turn.

We had to wait until 23^rd April 2016 to be reassured that the President Museveni and his NRM could not be persuaded to be a continued or locked into the LAPSSET:   Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport. So it would be from Hoima, Western Uganda into the Northern Kenya bypass into the prospected lines would go there both from Ethiopia and South Sudan down to the shores and bays of Lamu Port.

Instead Uganda have continued and promised to honour the 2015 Memorandum of Understanding with Tanzania the Uganda–Tanzania Crude Oil Pipeline (UTCOP); that goes from Hoima or Lake Albert through the Tanzanian nation down to the shores of the Tanga Port. This is also because of the agreements and assurance of both governments and also the new Oil-Drilling companies in Uganda like Total and ENI. They have also spoken their peace and does not feel safe as where the Pipeline goes through uncertain areas of Kenya.

So there will be two pipelines and in close reach and also with distinguished end-game; as the economic prospects are changed, the rates for oil-transport will be lost in the sight of Kenya. The Kenyan cannot now have future prospects of the oil-rates and jobs as a Pipeline gives. They will have cough-up the funding and most likely more borrowed money for the grand infrastructure.

The Ugandan will use funds and borrow monies to fund the pipeline-building and also give tax-payers and jobs in Tanzania. The rates by just transporting the oil from A-B will be a good tax-base for the Tanzanian Government. President Kenyatta hoped that his close relationship would help him and also with his Deputy Ruto also campaigning for Museveni to give something back. Seems like that didn’t help as the President Kikwete already have sweetened the tea and offered something that also helps to calm down the Oil-Drilling investors and their envelopes.

CS Keter of Kenya must be disappointed as his detained moment in Tanga Port came to nothing and the KDF forces inside Somalia are the reason for the fallout. Though I doubt that is the main reason. That is the diplomatic reason from the Ugandan Government. Ugandan Government and NRM-Regime is about money. They are all about the money, therefore the non-accountability and non-open tax-regime. The Ugandan Government would never say that is the main reason, but if Total, ENI and CNOOC words and tax-base is the current controlling the reasons for President Museveni. As he wants them on his side; so he can have secret deals with the Oil-Companies and keep the low-key taxes; not to talk about the un-disclosed agreements between them and the government of Uganda.

Therefore I am not surprised I think they only went into the talks in Kenya to please their neighbour and trading-partner as the relationship have soften over the last few months and the President of Kenya and President of Uganda have cherished more time together. As President Museveni have played the big-man and asked for suitors while waiting for the words from the Oil-Companies. The excuse of not taking Kenya is certainly been given by the Oil-Companies as the Ugandan President will only take the highest rates and the lowest fees for the construction. We can see that the borrowed monies that will be used should have low-charges and be clearly not too bad to GDP or the national inflation.

Still, the matters remain how the relationship really is between Uganda and Kenya. As they have fought over the little Migingo Island and chicken export fiasco. An the Recently also covered a squabble over Yellow Fever Notes to give to Border Patrols to be relieved and be allowed to Enter into Kenya from Uganda. So with the decision to abandon all hope for Kenya and totally give way to Tanzania; will be hurting the pride of the Harambee in the coming weeks. Especially since the Kenyan has tried to get the Ugandan’s to use their port instead. This backfired and didn’t work.

I hope that this doesn’t stop the other Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP) as of the Standard Gauge Railway and others that can connect the nations and bring softer transport of people and goods between the East African nations. Certainly the matter is at hand and the justification would be “terrorism” as why the pipeline didn’t get extended. Though I believe it is much more to say “cash money” and in general the black gold revenues.

This here will certainly be uncovered over time and the real reason will show-up by the Al-Shabab is a deflection and we know the gig is up. Peace.