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Opinion: Now that the World Bank has new priorities, they will most likely not loan to the pipelines in East Africa!

 

There is certain movements that will strike as more expensive for the East African Community (EAC). This being for the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Government of Kenya (GoK), who has big plans of petroleum pipelines from their oil-fields and to the coast. That being from Turkana to Lamu Port. While the Ugandan oil goes from Hoima to Tanga Port in Tanzania. Both development and industrial projects will have issues with the funding. The World Bank has supported massive infrastructure projects in both countries.

Therefore, for the two counties big development and oil industry, this is giant set-back, since they have to find funding and loans for the pipelines on the open market. Even with higher interests and making the profits of it lesser, than it would have been with a World Bank loan. It would not hurt the pocket as much as it does on the open market. The banks wants more profits themselves and also make sure they are paid-in-full.

With all this in mind. There are speculations, but first. Parts of the self-answering service. Before we look at the reactions in Kenya and Uganda. All of are important, as the state is involved in the licensing and building the pipelines. They are directly into the development and procurement of the pipelines. That is why this is big blow for the administrations and their possible tax-profits on it.

Word Bank Q&A:

Q. How is “upstream” oil and gas defined?

Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas” (World Bank, 2017).

Current projects in our portfolio would continue as planned. However, no new investments in upstream oil and gas would be undertaken after 2019, unless under exceptional circumstances as noted in the decision” (World Bank, 2017).

Kenya Pipeline:

The announcement by the bank, which has significant interests in Kenya’s oil prospecting sector, does not bode well for the country’s anticipated entry into the club of oil producing nations beginning next year. Analysts said they do not expect an immediate reaction to the announcement even as they acknowledged that it takes the shine from oil in the long term” (…) “Locally, the World Bank is offering technical support to the Kenyan government, through the Kenya Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, to prime all stakeholders for commercial oil production and sale. The six-year programme is scheduled to run until February 2021 and involves the World Bank managing a Sh5.2 billion fund set up by investors from Germany, Norway and Britain. The World Bank’s private lending arm, International Finance Corporation, is however directly involved in Kenya’s oil fields, having a 6.83 per cent stake in Africa Oil, the Canadian exploration firm with interests in northern Kenya oil blocks” (Mutegi, 2017)

Uganda Pipeline:

The pipeline, is expected to be completed by the year 2020, when the country is scheduled to start oil production. In fact, Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni and his Tanzanian counterpart recently commissioned the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The two leaders laid mark stones for the crude oil pipeline in Mutukula, Kyotera district and Kabaale in Hoima district. Total E&P Uganda, a subsidiary of French oil giant, Total S.A, is spearheading the construction of the crude oil pipeline on behalf of the joint venture partners. Adewale Fayemi, the general manager, Total E&P Uganda says discussions are ongoing to discuss on the formalities of how the pipeline will be run. Already, an agreement has been reached that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will be run and managed by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) – private pipeline company. This means that a private company will be incorporated with joint venture partners – Tullow Uganda, Cnooc Uganda Ltd and Total E&P Uganda, and the governments of Uganda and Tanzania as shareholders in the company” (Ssekika, 2017)

Certainly, this will put a strain on the projects. They have to deliver another type of arrangement to make sure they get funding and have the funds to pay the added interests the banks wants. The added points on the dollar and the interest-rates will hit state-owned firms and the state itself. Since the pipelines most likely becomes more expensive and will be less profitable.

That the World Bank is pulling out of these projects is all within line of the Paris Accord, as they have professed is the reason. Still, this will make these projects more expensive and make sure they are earning less on it. Unless, the crude-oil prices are going up to a level that makes these investments even more profitable. That is only for time to tell. Since it is costly projects and also sophisticated to build. There is needed lots of expertise combined state planning to achieve the development plans.

This is just the beginning, but the pipelines and these investments are vital for both Kenya and Uganda. As the governments are already borrowing state funds on the possible earnings from the oil reserves in their basins. Therefore, they need to drill and need the petrodollar as quickly as possible. Peace.

Reference:

Mutegi, Mugambi – ‘World Bank dims Turkana oil hopes’ (14.12.2017) link: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-dims-Turkana-oil-hopes/996-4227848-u02v8n/index.html

Ssekika, Edward – ‘East African Crude Oil Pipeline: The Inside Story’ (11.12.2017) link: http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/economy/east-african-crude-oil-pipeline-the-inside-story-details-emerge-of-how-the-crude-oil-pipeline-will-be-financed-managed.html

World Bank – ‘Q&A: The World Bank Group and Upstream Oil and Gas’ (12.12.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/qa-the-world-bank-group-and-upstream-oil-and-gas

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Press Statement: Buhari visit the Niger Delta and see for yourself (26.06.2016)

Press Release 26.06.2016

The Battle for the Oil the Coast; Double pipelines seems to be the END-game: Kenyan on their own, while Uganda picks route through Tanzania!

Kenyatta Ruto

There was not too far ago when the Government of Kenya was dreaming in their wild pipedream to advance their own ideas and manage to hook the Ugandan Government so they wouldn’t continue with the progressive agreement with Tanzanian counter-parts. In the end it seems like the waves are long gone. The wind from Lake Albert never seemed to turn.

LAPSSET_South-Sudan_Kenya_Pipeines-and-Lamu_Refinery_Map

We had to wait until 23rd April 2016 to be reassured that the President Museveni and his NRM could not be persuaded to be a continued or locked into the LAPSSET:   Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport. So it would be from Hoima, Western Uganda into the Northern Kenya bypass into the prospected lines would go there both from Ethiopia and South Sudan down to the shores and bays of Lamu Port.

Instead Uganda have continued and promised to honour the 2015 Memorandum of Understanding with Tanzania the Uganda–Tanzania Crude Oil Pipeline (UTCOP); that goes from Hoima or Lake Albert through the Tanzanian nation down to the shores of the Tanga Port. This is also because of the agreements and assurance of both governments and also the new Oil-Drilling companies in Uganda like Total and ENI. They have also spoken their peace and does not feel safe as where the Pipeline goes through uncertain areas of Kenya.

Tanzania-Uganda-Pipeline_0

So there will be two pipelines and in close reach and also with distinguished end-game; as the economic prospects are changed, the rates for oil-transport will be lost in the sight of Kenya. The Kenyan cannot now have future prospects of the oil-rates and jobs as a Pipeline gives. They will have cough-up the funding and most likely more borrowed money for the grand infrastructure.

The Ugandan will use funds and borrow monies to fund the pipeline-building and also give tax-payers and jobs in Tanzania. The rates by just transporting the oil from A-B will be a good tax-base for the Tanzanian Government. President Kenyatta hoped that his close relationship would help him and also with his Deputy Ruto also campaigning for Museveni to give something back. Seems like that didn’t help as the President Kikwete already have sweetened the tea and offered something that also helps to calm down the Oil-Drilling investors and their envelopes.

Keter Citizen TV

CS Keter of Kenya must be disappointed as his detained moment in Tanga Port came to nothing and the KDF forces inside Somalia are the reason for the fallout. Though I doubt that is the main reason. That is the diplomatic reason from the Ugandan Government. Ugandan Government and NRM-Regime is about money. They are all about the money, therefore the non-accountability and non-open tax-regime. The Ugandan Government would never say that is the main reason, but if Total, ENI and CNOOC words and tax-base is the current controlling the reasons for President Museveni. As he wants them on his side; so he can have secret deals with the Oil-Companies and keep the low-key taxes; not to talk about the un-disclosed agreements between them and the government of Uganda.

Therefore I am not surprised I think they only went into the talks in Kenya to please their neighbour and trading-partner as the relationship have soften over the last few months and the President of Kenya and President of Uganda have cherished more time together. As President Museveni have played the big-man and asked for suitors while waiting for the words from the Oil-Companies. The excuse of not taking Kenya is certainly been given by the Oil-Companies as the Ugandan President will only take the highest rates and the lowest fees for the construction. We can see that the borrowed monies that will be used should have low-charges and be clearly not too bad to GDP or the national inflation.

Kenyatta Museveni

Still, the matters remain how the relationship really is between Uganda and Kenya. As they have fought over the little Migingo Island and chicken export fiasco. An the Recently also covered a squabble over Yellow Fever Notes to give to Border Patrols to be relieved and be allowed to Enter into Kenya from Uganda. So with the decision to abandon all hope for Kenya and totally give way to Tanzania; will be hurting the pride of the Harambee in the coming weeks. Especially since the Kenyan has tried to get the Ugandan’s to use their port instead. This backfired and didn’t work.

I hope that this doesn’t stop the other Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP) as of the Standard Gauge Railway and others that can connect the nations and bring softer transport of people and goods between the East African nations. Certainly the matter is at hand and the justification would be “terrorism” as why the pipeline didn’t get extended. Though I believe it is much more to say “cash money” and in general the black gold revenues.

This here will certainly be uncovered over time and the real reason will show-up by the Al-Shabab is a deflection and we know the gig is up. Peace.

WikiLeaks: Government of Uganda issues from 2007 to 2009/10; ENI/Tullow Oil, PRA, Wakiso By-Election, Election Rigging, Payed Media and so on

2005_uganda_corruption_presser

Here I will back into the past, as I have done with Museveni directly connected to violence in the past. Here it is more general. Some of this is to refresh the memory of the matter. And when the Government; back in the called all of this rubbish, it must have been some facts that the government doesn’t want into the light. There is certainty that this will shed some lights on matter of Corruption, Oil-Money, Election-Rigging and other saucy tales of the recent past. Enjoy!

Mabira Forest Cartoon

Mabira Forrest and sugarcane deal:

President Museveni has gotten tired of multi-party-ism after the dissidence to agreement between Asian business deals to make the Mabira Forrest into a sugarcane farms. Especially President Museveni is tired of FDC and Dr. Kizza Besigye and how he is addressing the matters of Mabira Forrest. Because the NRM is happy with their trade between Government of Uganda and the Metha Group that Besigye and the public who has a feeling that Indian business are getting sweet-deals, but the ordinary workers are getting anything. Certain sources are saying that the Cabinet has made an agreement with the World Bank on the Bujagali Dam, but a part of that deal is to secure the Mabira Forrest. Museveni’s argument for the sale is to get the country into a middleclass county and in that way you have to use all the countries minerals and resources (WikiLeaks, 2007).

The PRA Suspect on bail:

On the 1st March of 2007 has re-arrested the main offenders from the Peoples’s Redemption Army (RPA). These offenders are suspected on both murder charges and treason charges. They we’re given bail, but the police didn’t treat them correctly. The Police beat them with batons and their defense lawyers were injured in the altercation. “Minister of Internal Affairs Ruhakana Rugunda said that the PRA had been released on bail for the treason charges against them, and that the Government respected this decision” (…) “Principal Judge James Ogoola said that he was: “concerned for the Court, for liberty in this country, and for the peace of this country” (WikiLeaks, 2007).

Besigye’s brother:

On the 13.06.2007 the High Court judge Caroline Okello granted the brother of Dr. Kizza Besigye bail. He is Joseph Musaizi Kifefe. He was charged at the time for being part of the uprising of the PRA (People’s Redemption Army). Further on he will stand trial for treason against the state. The lawyer for Kifefe has applied for bail on the grounds of medical condition of his client since he has blood cancer and need treatment at Mulago Hospital. On June 18 2007 he was discharged from Hospital after treatment that has lasted for over a month. The conditions for the bail was set for that he has to report to the Kampala Central Police Station, do this twice a month and register that cost $6,000, leaving behind his passport and not allowed to travel without permission. The issue for giving Kifefe bail was that the Government of Uganda feared the smear and loses appeal with the donor nations. Next date that is set for PRA suspects is set for July 16.2007 (WikiLeaks, 2007).

GAVI money disappears

Corruption cases:

Immunization Corruption Case:

In January of 2006 the President Museveni requested that the Inspector General of Government (IGG) to investigate the former Minister of Health Jim Muhwezi. This was because of the alleged scheming money from the vaccine program of Global Alliance for Vaccine and Immunization (GAVI). The funds for this program were instead spent on SIPIDIS – Constitutional Referendum and National Resistance Movement. President Museveni asked First Deputy Prime Minister Eriya Kategaya on how much of these funds we’re used for campaigning in 2005-2006. While the President pushed for IGG to investigate the Fund. Janet Museveni tried to stop this and support Jim Muhwezi. In April of 2007 the Justice Faith Mwondha that the former Health Ministery and other government officials had misused the GAVI funds. These persons were Jim Muhwezi, Mike Muluka, Alex Kamugisha and also the first lady niece Alice Kaboyo was part of the corruption case. The case was for the missing $900,000 from the $4,8M. 4th May 2007 Jim Muhwezi filed a petition against the case to block President Museveni’s case against the Gavi Corruption case. The argument being that it’s an independent institution that shouldn’t follow orders by the President and should get its mandate from the Constitution. The answer from the President came on the 16th May 2007 when he went to Constitutional Court to swear an affidavit that claims the corruption of Muhwezi and Kaboyo. At the same time the President claimed he hadn’t interfered in the investigation of the IGG. 18th May 2007 the arrest warrants on the Muhezi and Kaboyo was sent out. That also Kaboyo was implicated was not something the Ugandan public expected since she had been a part of the household of Museveni. Kaboyo claimed that she did this on verbal agreement with the President. Muhwezi was away when the arrest order came, but he turned to the police in 28th May 2007 from there he was sent to Luzira prison. Mukula and Kamugisha were granted bail on the 25th May 2007. The issue with this case was that the party of people took more money than where authorized to do and didn’t prove what they used that money for. Muhewezi is now seen as “not political responsible”. The Cabinet wanted just to “clip his wings” because they could be implicated by the case. This is something the President Museveni accepted (WikiLeaks, 2009).

Wakiso By-Elections:

4th November 2008 there was held by-election to fill the seat of the Kyaddondo North of the Wakiso District. “NRM candidate and son of Kibirige, Robert Kibirige Kasule, won the tightly contested race with 8,183 votes – just 60 more than DP candidate Regine Bakittee.  Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate Pallyne Nakabuye finished a distant third with 1,900 votes” (…) “Allegations of electoral malpractice, including ballot stuffing, bribery, multiple voting, and violence were widespread. In one confirmed incident, a polling station’s presiding officer and other officials were found at the site before the polls opened with a number of pre-marked ballots already in the box.  The police and Electoral Commission Returning Officer were called in and the presiding officer was later arrested and the ballot box confiscated” (…) “DP Legal Advisor and Kampala District parliamentarian Erias Lukwago told the press that the election was not “free and fair” and vowed to seek legal redress” (…) “DP Secretary General Mathius Nsubuga contacted members of the diplomatic community to encourage missions to observe the election on December 4.  Nsubuga expressed concerns about increased Ugandan military deployments in the area in the days leading up to the election and reported increased incidents of intimidation.  He reported that Bakittee’s campaign manager had been knocked down in a hit-and-run car accident involving a government-marked vehicle” (WikiLeaks, 2008).

New Vision 71% 2011 - 2016

Media is bribed to write certain stories:

“De Temmerman expressed deep concern over the state of Ugandan journalism. “What is happening in the Ugandan press is pure exploitation and fabrication,” she commented. De Temmerman said that journalists are often paid to write stories aimed at destroying political rivals or advancing private economic agendas. She pointed to coverage of the recent National Social Security Fund’s questionable purchase of land belonging to Security Minister Amama Mbabazi and approved by Finance Minister Ezra Suruma (reftel). She said that a “considerable amount of money” exchanged hands as Parliament’s probe moved forward and that a number of her journalists had been offered bribes to “hit Mbabazi hard.” (…)”“The Red Pepper is 90 percent fabricated,” De Temmerman affirmed (Note: The Red Pepper is a salacious tabloid that is used by the government and private individuals to malign enemies. End note.). She expressed concern that the paper’s readership was rising and that some Ugandans might actually mistake it for factual journalism” (WikiLeaks, 2008).

Election 2011 Uganda

Local Council elections in 2009:

On 21th May of 2009 was there held in 79 districts that will fill the new seats in local councils and sub-country level. Observation teams saw this: “Voter turnout was low and there were very few contentious contests.  However, there were a number of irregularities and concerns that in a larger, more controversial election could be cause for conflict or possibly a rejection of the results.  Observation teams reported that several polling stations opened late due to tardy polling officials, missing or delayed voting materials, and rain.  Observers also recorded problems with the voter identification process, including multiple voters without voter identification cards or other identity documents, missing names, un-alphabetized voter registries, and conflict between polling officials and party agents over the identity of undocumented voters (Note: There were allegations that the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party’s officials brought people to the polling stations without identification to vote in the place of deceased individuals still on the list. End note)” (…)”Monitors reported inconsistent ballot box sealing procedures, mostly believed to be the result of poor training rather than fraud.  In some instances, polling officials mistakenly used regular ink instead of the indelible ink to mark voters’ fingers. In at least two cases, individuals responsible for marking voters’ fingers were absent from their posts.  Many polling officials, party agents, and Uganda Police Force (UPF) constables appeared to lack a strong understanding of their roles and responsibilities in the voting process and thus failed at times to properly enforce electoral laws.  This, combined with limited voter education and information, often led to confusion and in some isolated instances verbal confrontation.  In one district, observers reported a more serious case of ballot stuffing.  Although observers reported these findings to the District Electoral Registrar, the results from the station were still considered valid and were included in the final count” (WikiLeaks, 2009).

NRM Material from Sanga Jail 101015

Election Rigging:

“On October 22, Uganda’s main opposition newspaper published excerpts of an internal NRM report accusing core EC officials of conspiring with opposition parties to place “ghost” voters and “phantom” villages on Uganda’s voter rolls. Opposition parties have identified a new EC as a prerequisite for their participation in the 2011 elections because they view the current EC as pro-NRM (refs. A, B and C). Various iterations of the NRM report accuse the EC of placing 500,000 to one million pro-opposition “ghost” voters on the voter registry to force the NRM’s Presidential candidate into a second round election run off in 2011. The report singles out EC Secretary Sam Rwakoojo, Legal Council Alfred Okello Oryem, and a handful of mid-level officials for corruption, fraud and conflict of interest, and recommends firing Rwakoojo “forthwith as he as done the most to damage (the) NRM.” (WikiLeaks, 2009).

Amama 090915

NRM-Membership program:

“The NRM membership campaign probably also serves to strengthen Museveni and Mbabazi’s power within the party. NRM leaders are likely looking to prevent an embarrassing repeat of the 2006 legislative election when 37 NRM members, frustrated by the lack of internal democracy within the party, defeated hand-picked NRM candidates by running for parliament as political independents. With the registration campaign, party members could be identified earlier and threatened with permanent alienation from the NRM if they bolted to seek election as independents. Mbabazi may also use his control of the registration campaign to boost his own embattled position within the party by withholding registration to those in the NRM who do not support him. Mbabazi’s position as Secretary General is up for re-election in late-2010, and he will likely face stiff competition for the NRM’s contested top spot” (WikiLeaks, 2009).

The day before riots:

“The government closed five radio stations on September 11th two CBS stations plus Suubi FM, Radio Sapientia, and Radio Two Akaboozi Kubiri – for violating Uganda’s Electronic Media act.  At least two other stations – Radio Simba and WBS TV – have been warned to censor their reporting or risk closure” (…)“On September 11, well known Radio One talk show host Robert Kalundi Sserumaga was abducted by unidentified assailants riding in an unmarked sedan as he left the WBS studio.  He was later dumped in front of a police station and arrested” (WikiLeaks, 2009).

opposition-leaders-sam-lubega-2l-upcs-olara-otunnu-and-others-were-weted-by-tear-gas-yesterday-picture-by-michael-kakumirizi1

Riots in Kampala:

“Rioting in Kampala subsided on September 12 after the King of Buganda postponed his visit to the disputed district of Kayunga” (…) “There was sporadic gunfire during the morning of September 12 on the outskirts of Kampala, as well as road closures and checkpoints near the city center amidst a heavy police presence.  Several police posts and dozens of vehicles were burnt during the riots.  One reportedly Asian-owned paint factory was also torched” (…) “On September 12 Buganda Prime Minister John Baptist  Walusimbi asked the Inspector General of Police, Kale Kayihura to  “restrain his officers and men from indiscriminate shooting against unarmed civilians in order to cool the temperatures.” (…) “On September 14, state media reported 21 dead and over 100 injured (including 13 police officers) during two days of rioting.  Some of those brought to Kampala’s overflowing Mulago hospital, including a two year old child who was killed, were hit in their homes by stray bullets” (…) “An estimated 550 to 650 people were arrested during the  riots. Local media reports only 82 of these have been charged, meaning that the rest should either be charged today or released” (…) “Museveni also accused Libyan leader Muamar Qadhafi of trying to destabilize Uganda by funneling funds to the Baganda as payback for Museveni’s opposition to Qadhafi’s United States of Africa proposal” (WikiLeaks, 2009).

MuseveniandIdiAmin

President Museveni on alleged torture:    

On 14th October 2009 President Musveni told the press that those who are torturing Ugandans will be severely punished. The president does this because he want to squash the allegations that been made in UHRC that agencies of the state is violating the Human rights. Reuters also questioned the President on the arrest and beating of the journalist Robert Kalundi Sserumaga. Later on 18th October 2009 NRM spokesman Ofwono Opondo he was ashamed of the actions of the UPDF, the Police, Prisons and intelligence agency. Opondo has claimed that he didn’t Understand why this was happening since the government agencies are more educated then before therefore it’s a shock that they torture the people they are arresting. IGP Gen Kale Kayihura on the 17th October he had to change the Rapid Response Unit(RRU) in the Police after claims of torture of alleged corruption case against the Executive Director of UNFA (Uganda National Forestry Authority) and his wife where the RRU is suspected of detaining them for a week and threathen to torture them. The RRU director David Magara was because of this moved from his position into a leadership role in the CID (Criminal Investigation Directorat). In Hoima the mayor who is a part of the FDC Atugonza is in proceedings against the state for a torture case where he was attacked by JATT (Joint Anti-Terrorist Team) in April 2009. This was a closed session from the public. The Mayor of Hoima claimed in court that he was sent to a “safe house” and tortured there by the CMI (Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence). Because of this Dr. Kizza Besigye has said that he would make litigation against Minister of Security Amama Mbabazi for the treatment of Atugonza by security agencies he controls (WikiLeaks, 2009).

New Districts in 2009:

“On November 11, Minister of Lands Adolf Mwesige asked Parliament to approve the creation of seven new administrative districts on top of the 14 districts already slated for creation in 2009 and 2010. If approved, this will bring the total number of administrative districts to 101, or three times the 33 districts existing when Museveni took power in 1986” (…) “According to the Commissioner for Local Councils, Patrick Mutabwire, all of the 39 districts created between 2005 and 2009 depend on the central government to cover 90 percent of their expedenditures.  At the moment, government service provision in new districts remains poor or nonexistent” (…) “According to the Commisioner for Local Councils, new district start up costs range from USD 300,000 for smaller districts to USD 1 million for larger ones, and each new district employs between 250 to 500 local government employees/ new districts are attractive job creation mechanisms for the Ugandan government. These appointments provide a chance for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) to reward specific constituencies and individuals, or entice opposition members back into the NRM camp” (WikiLeaks, 2009).

eni-petrolio-uganda-324x230

GoU and ENI deal – Mbabazi connection:

“The report claims that Mbabazi is using a front company belonging to the European owner of Asante Oil, and that ENI representatives distributed “fat envelopes” to a number of visitors – including Energy Ministry officials, representatives from the Office of the President, journalists, and Bunyoro Kingdom officers – while installed at a safari lodge in Murchison Falls National Park close to where drilling has occurred. NOTE: EconOff witnessed ENI’s presence at this lodge during a trip to Murchison in early December. END NOTE. Much of the report highlights ENI’s Libyan ties and accuses Qadhafi of funneling money to the Bunyoro and Buganda Kingdoms to destabilize the Museveni regime. The final two sections of the report purport to “show how ENI corrupts a country’s leadership and forces them to take unpopular selfish policies,” and the “dangers” of an ENI/Libya deal” (WikiLeaks, 2010).

Tullow oil corruption:

“On 14 December, Tim O’Hanlon, Tullow Oil’s Regional Vice President for Africa met with Ambassador Lanier to discuss recent developments in oil exploration in Uganda (see ref. A for background). O’Hanlon explained that the $10+ billion required to produce, refine, and export oil from Uganda far exceeds the financial capacity of Tullow and other mid-sized exploration companies currently working in Uganda. Tullow is therefore considering selling a portion of its Uganda holdings to a larger international oil partner, and has unofficially “short listed” three major companies as potential partners – including Exxon Mobil, Total (France), and the Chinese National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC). After Tullow concludes its process of selecting a partner, likely in January or February 2010, Tullow will present the “bids” to the Uganda government and work with Ugandan officials to gain approval of the much larger oil partner” (…)”O’Hanlon referred to Minister Mbabazi, who facilitated an August 2009 meeting between ENI and Tullow, as ENI’s “patron” in Uganda, and said ENI created a shell company in London – TKL Holdings – through frontmen Mark Christian and Moses Seruje – to funnel money to Mbabazi. O’Hanlon also noted what he described as Onek’s recent unsolicited “grandstanding” before Parliament in support of ENI, and similar statements of support during a recent Indo-African energy conference in New Dehli. Onek made impossible claims at the Indo-African conference regarding ENI’s ability to export 100,000 – 200,000 barrels per day within two years” (…)”O’Hanlon said ENI’s Uganda deal is part of a wider effort, facilitated by Heritage, to gain control of all oil fields on both sides of Lake Albert. In addition to its exploration blocks in Uganda, Tullow claims to have exploration rights on the Congolese side of Lake Albert” (WikiLeaks, 2009).

This here must been seen as interesting, doest it? Aye? Especially so close to the elections, I am sure the local media would not like this to come out, especially the New Vision and such. I am sure Amama Mbabazi will not like this, but the history is the history, and people should know this, so you make the right decision on the polling day! Peace.

Reference:

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: BESIGYE’S DETAINED BROTHER GRANTED BAIL’ (03.07.2007) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07KAMPALA1089_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: IF A TREE FALLS IN MABIRA FOREST, WHO WILL HEAR IT?’ (02.05.2007) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07KAMPALA744_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘RESPECTED EDITOR RESIGNS; GIVES VIEWS ON UGANDAN MEDIA’ (20.11.2008) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08KAMPALA1524_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: CORRUPTION SCANDAL’S POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS’ (29.05.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07KAMPALA909_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: MUSEVENI AND NRM SPEAK OUT AGAINST TORTURE’ (27.10.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1249_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: GOVERNMENT RE-ARRESTS PRA SUSPECTS’ (02.03.2007) Link:  https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07KAMPALA367_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: DEATHS, DETENTIONS, AND DISTRUST AFTER KAMPALA RIOTING’ (14.09.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1055_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: DISTRICT PROLIFERATION AS POLITICAL PATRONAGE’ (20.11.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1326_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘LOCAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS IN UGANDA SIGNAL TROUBLE IN 2011’ (10.06.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA576_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘CONTENTIOUS UGANDAN BY-ELECTION AND ITS LESSONS FOR 2011’ (18.12.2008) Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08KAMPALA1613_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: ALLEGATIONS OF “GHOST” VOTERS HAUNT ELECTORAL COMMISSION’ (17.11.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1323_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘POLICE ARREST MAYOR (AGAIN) AND TEAR GAS OPPOSITION IN WESTERN UGANDA’ (10.12.2009) Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1391_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: SECURITY REPORT DETAILS OIL SECTOR CORRUPTION’ (13.01.2010) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/10KAMPALA19_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: TULLOW SEES CORRUPTION IN OIL SALE’ (17.12.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1401_a.html

WikiLeaks – ‘UGANDA: NRM LAUNCHES MEMBERSHIP REGISTRATION DRIVE’ (23.09.2009) link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1097_a.html

Interesting WikiLeaks about Uganda: Bunyoro, Lake Albert & Oil-deals

Here is WikiLeaks which shows quotes from 2007 to 2011 where Bunyoro, Rwenzuru and the security of the oil-rich Western-Uganda. Think that this should be interesting reading – also insights to the situation. Have an awesome time reading!

The Corruption story of Muhwezi and Mukula amd the NRM:

Many Ugandans were happy to see Muhwezi and Mukula, members of the so-called “mafia”, arrested for corrupt activities” (…)”oo Much or Inefficient Corruption. Kategaya and Musa Ecweru, Minister of State for Relief and Disaster Preparedness, told P/E Chief the core issue was that Muhwezi, Mukula, and Kamugisha took more money than they had been authorized and failed to account for it. Muhwezi had been found “not politically responsible” in a Cabinet white paper follow-up on the Global Fund Investigation report in March. According to the Kategaya and Ecweru, the debate within the Cabinet over Muhwezi’s fate was heated, but that ultimately a majority of ministers rallied behind Muhwezi because they themselves could be implicated for corrupt activities. The President accepted the Cabinet recommendation, but still wanted to find a way to “clip Muhwezi’s wings.” The President decided that the use of the immunization fund for personal gain would provide a strong case against Muhwezi” (…)”Succession Politics. Another possibility, and not excluded by other theories, was that the arrests were an attempt by President Museveni to remove potential successors. This includes both Jim Muhwezi and First Lady Janet Museveni. Both have presidential ambitions and both profited beyond Museveni’s expectations from the embezzlement. Muhwezi’s financial independence, alleged ties to the Forum for Democratic Change’s Kizza Besigye, and the perception that he was advancing his own political ambitions rather than the ruling party’s could have contributed to the decision to arrest him at this time. Several Cabinet members say that Muhwezi, the former Chief of Military Intelligence, has been allowed to get away with corrupt activities because he has files on key political players and the First Family and has threatened to use them” (…)”The NRM-dominated Parliament also selected Muhwezi to head the Parliamentary Group for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. One Cabinet member told PolChief that there are signs of other politicians rallying to Muhwezi’s side because they fear they could be next in line for an arrest warrant. Ecweru posted Mukula’s bond to demonstrate ethnic solidarity” (…)”The arrests are generating a significant amount of speculation regarding the future of the ruling party and implications for the war on corruption. Many political contacts and other Western diplomats are wondering if Museveni has a clear game plan, desired outcome, or defined roles for the IGG and public prosecutors” (WikiLeaks, 29.05.2007).

Ugandan Boarder Tension:

“Museveni and his Congolese counterpart Joseph Kabila met in Tanzania to discuss border issues after Congolese military units moved a border demarcation four kilometers into an agreed-upon no-man’s zone on the Ugandan border” (…)”Lt. Gen. David Tinyefuza, Museveni’s security czar, reported to Museveni that Congolese units allegedly erected a border crossing four kilometers on the Ugandan side of the border. However, a team of security officials led by Deputy Director of the External Security Service Emmy Allio, who is from West Nile, determined that the Congolese had not moved the demarcation posts into Uganda, only into the agreed-upon no-man’s zone. In his report to President Museveni and the Minister of Security Amama Mbabazi, Allio argued that the GOU should not “make a big deal” out of the incident. He found that the powerful Governor of Ituri ordered the move, with backing from some elements in Kinshasa, but that Kabila was likely unaware” (WikiLeaks, 21.05.2008).

”According to a joint statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Museveni and Kabila “noted with satisfaction” that progress had been made in the border demarcation process. They pointed to the Fifth Session of the Joint Permanent Commission in Kampala December 12-15, 2007, the Joint Border Remarking Committee in Bunia and Entebbe, and other bilateral engagement on the issue as evidence that efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the border question were ongoing” (…)”Museveni and Kabila agreed to accelerate the co-administration of the Rukawanzi Island as the demarcation process takes place. Situated on Lake Albert, Rukawanzi Island was at the center of the August 2007 border flare-up that led to the Ngurdoto-Tanzania Agreement. (Note: Congolese soldiers killed a British Heritage Oil worker in August 2007 claiming that the oil barge had strayed into Congolese waters (ref A). End note.) The prospect of oil exploration on Lake Albert, which is dissected by the Ugandan-Congolese border, has further complicated the demarcation process” (WikiLeaks, 21.05.2008).

The Oil-deals and Boarder Tension:

“The most recent border tensions comes in the wake of Kinshasa’s decision to revoke an oil exploration concession to a neighboring block in eastern Congo’s oil-rich region that it had granted to Tullow Oil and Heritage, two of four oil companies operating in western Uganda. The Congolese government awarded the tender to South Africa’s state oil company PetroSA, claiming that Tullow and Heritage violated Congolese territorial waters on Lake Albert (refs A and B), (WikiLeaks, 21.05.2008).

Museveni’s Plan to “Ring-Fence” Bunyoro:

“An internal July 15 memo from Ugandan President Museveni has deepened the ethnic divide between groups living atop newfound oil reserves in Uganda’s Western Region.  The memo, which was leaked to the press on August 2, instructs the Minister for Presidential Affairs to consider restricting key elected offices – including parliamentary seats – in what was once the Bunyoro Kingdom in Western Uganda to ethnic Banyoro only.  The memo also recommends preferential land ownership rights for ethnic Banyoro for the next twenty years.  Museveni’s memo may have been designed to appease, or perhaps distract, Banyoro leaders angered by long-standing land disputes and the government’s continued refusal to reveal plans for oil revenue sharing (reftel)” (…)”Museveni has not backed away from the idea of investing specific ethnic groups with special electoral privileges in Western Uganda, and several members of his Cabinet who hail from Bunyoro have ratcheted up pressure on Museveni to move forward with his proposal. Museveni’s apparent willingness to consider rewarding one ethnic constituency by disenfranchising many others reinforces concerns about his re-election strategy for 2011 and Uganda’s commitment to the transparent management of impending oil revenues” Sampson/WikiLeaks, 19.08.2009).

”Two other individuals of note reportedly also spoke at the August 15 Bunyoro Symposium: the Bunyoro Kingdom’s spokesman Henry Ford Miriima and Presidential Advisor on Land Issues Kasirivu Atwooki. In recent days Miriima has advocated for taking President Museveni’s “ring-fencing” idea even further, arguing that non-Banyoro living in Bunyoro should assimilate into Banyoro culture and adopt the Banyoro language of Runyoro” (Sampson/WikiLeaks, 19.08. 2009).

Tension because of Museveni’s plan to “Ring-Fence” Bunyoro:

“Tensions between the Banyoro and “immigrant” populations in Bunyoro have been simmering for some time. President Museveni’s memo significantly heightened these tensions by elevating them to national prominence. Explanations of why Museveni seized on the Bunyoro question now, after more than two decades in power, focus on two topics: elections and oil. Using Uganda’s 2002 census as a guide, one local news magazine noted that the Banyoro are in fact not marginalized and that ethnic Banyoro hold 10 of the 14 parliamentary seats from the four districts that make up the Bunyoro Kingdom. Although Banyoro appear to be the largest ethnic group in these districts, they do not hold a majority. Restricting elected offices to only ethnic Banyoro would therefore disenfranchise a majority of the population resident in these districts” (Sampson/WikiLeaks, 19.08. 2009)

“Captain” Mike Mukula, disgraced former Ugandan Health Minister and current National Resistance Movement (NRM) vice-chairman for eastern Uganda, warned that the 2011 presidential elections will be worse than the deeply flawed 2006 presidential contest. Mukula, whose political reputation was battered by the 2006 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) scandal, said the September 10-12 riots provided a brief preview of one potential election scenario. He also said President Museveni’s popularity was decreasing within the NRM, and speculated that Museveni may be interested in setting up his son, Muhoozi, as dauphin. Mukula said Museveni ultimately listens to only two countries – the U.S. and the U.K. – and urged the U.S. to pressure Museveni to reinstate presidential term limits. Mukula himself, however, hopes to run for president in 2016″ (…)”Mukula lost his Cabinet post in 2006 and was briefly imprisoned in 2007 after being accused of diverting USD 1.5 million from the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) program to NRM coffers. Describing himself as Museveni’s “fall guy,” Mukula blamed his involvement in the GAVI scandal on Museveni’s need to placate international donors concerned about corruption, and his own rising popularity as evidenced by a newspaper poll that listed Mukula as more popular with the NRM faithful than the President” (…)”Now the NRM’s vice-chairman for eastern Uganda and a key member of Museveni’s re-election campaign, Mukula complained that there is no separation between the NRM and Ugandan state institutions. He called the military Uganda’s “fourth estate” and said Museveni regards the army as his personal political party. Mukula highlighted the complete dominance of Museveni’s Banyankole ethnic group throughout the government, military, and business community, and asserted that the NRM now serves as nothing more than platform for the President, springing to life only during election campaigns” (…)”Bukenya, an ethnic Baganda, as the NRM’s most popular leader. He said Museveni kept Bukenya on as his Vice President to keep tabs on Bukenya’s potential presidential ambitions” (…)”Mukula said the recent political moves made by Museveni – from pandering to ethnic Banyoro along Lake Albert (ref. A), to the recognition of the Rwenzururu Kingdom in southwestern Uganda and the decision to support the minority Banyala’s quest for autonomy from the Buganda Kingdom (ref. B) – were all designed to obtain the two percentage points needed to push Museveni from 49 to 51 percent during the first round of voting in 2011” (…)”Mukula said Museveni was increasingly patterning himself after Robert Mugabe and wants to position his son, Lieutenant Colonel Muhoozi Kainerugaba Museveni, as his eventual successor. Muhoozi returned from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in mid-2008 to assume command of the new Special Forces, a still-murky component – or potentially entirely separate unit – of the praetorian Presidential Guard Brigade comprised of all the PGB’s elite, technical, and specialized non-infantry capabilities. Noting that Muhoozi may still be too young to mount a credible presidential bid in 2016, Mukula again volunteered that he had presidential ambitions of his own for 2016” (Sampson/WikiLeaks, 23.09.2009).

The Oil-deals between ExxonMobile/ENI/Tullow/Heritage Oil Company with corruption and deals made with the Ugandan Government:

“A December 17 report by the External Security Organization (ESO), which Intelligence Coordinator General David Tinyefuza allegedly forwarded to President Museveni, says Security Minister Amama Mbabazi is “eyeing” a $200 million commission for securing a deal between Heritage Oil and the Italian firm ENI” (…)”confidential Ugandan intelligence report on negotiations between Heritage Oil and the Italian oil giant ENI (see attached document and reftel). Tullow has previously expressed concern that ENI is using illicit payments to Ugandan officials to obtain government authorization for purchasing Heritage and depriving Tullow of oil holdings in Lake Albert” (…)”The report says western governments – including the U.S., U.K., Sweden, and France – oppose the opaque ENI deal, that Tullow hopes to sell 50% of its Ugandan holdings to ExxonMobil, and that ENI offered Ugandan officials facilitating an ENI-Heritage agreement a $200 million “commission” (…)”The report claims that Mbabazi is using a front company belonging to the European owner of Asante Oil, and that ENI representatives distributed “fat envelopes” to a number of visitors – including Energy Ministry officials, representatives from the Office of the President, journalists, and Bunyoro Kingdom officers – while installed at a safari lodge in Murchison Falls National Park close to where drilling has occurred. NOTE: EconOff witnessed ENI’s presence at this lodge during a trip to Murchison in early December. END NOTE. Much of the report highlights ENI’s Libyan ties and accuses Qadhafi of funneling money to the Bunyoro and Buganda Kingdoms to destabilize the Museveni regime. The final two sections of the report purport to “show how ENI corrupts a country’s leadership and forces them to take unpopular selfish policies,” and the “dangers” of an ENI/Libya deal” (Sampson/WikiLeaks, 13.01.2010).

Continuation of Mbabazi and Government involvement in Oil-Deals:

“We believe Mbabazi is positioning himself for a significant payoff, but the security report is undermined somewhat by Tullow’s apparent involvement in its drafting. In December, ExxonMobil said it lacked concrete evidence that its Ugandan interests have been harmed, but noted that ENI’s involvement has had a negative impact. If the Heritage-ENI sale proceeds unchanged, it will significantly reduce the value of Tullow’s Uganda holdings, zap ExxonMobil’s interest, and put Uganda on the road to rampant oil sector corruption” (Samson(WikiLeaks, 13.01.2010)

“President Yoweri Museveni has ordered the freeze in order to protect the rights of locals, whose tenure continues to be threatened by the influx of business people interested in the oil-rich land, Stephen Birahwa, a lawmaker representing Bulisa told Dow Jones Newswires” (WikiLeaks, 29.05.2011).

Peace!

Links:

Richards/WikiLeaks – [OS] UGANDA/ENERGY – Uganda imposes oil land ban – FRANCE/UK/CHINA (06.06.2011), WikiLeaks, Link: https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/31/3161601_-os-uganda-energy-uganda-imposes-oil-land-ban-france-uk.html

 

Sampson, Aaron & WikiLeaks – MUSEVENI MIXES TOXIC BREW OF ETHNICITY AND OIL IN WESTERN UGANDA (19.08.2009), WikiLeaks, Link:

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA946_a.html

 

Sampson, Aaron & WikiLeaks – UGANDA: NATIONAL RESISTANCE MOVEMENT INSIDER SEES TROUBLE AHEAD (23.09.2009), WikiLeaks, Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09KAMPALA1096_a.html

 

Sampson, Aaron & WikiLeaks – UGANDA: SECURITY REPORT DETAILS OIL SECTOR CORRUPTION (13.01.2010), WikiLeaks, Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/10KAMPALA19_a.html

 

WikiLeaks – UGANDA: MUSEVENI AND KABILA DEFUSE BORDER TENSION (21.05.2008), Link:https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08KAMPALA674_a.html

 

WikiLeaks – UGANDA: CORRUPTION SCANDAL’S POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS (29.05.2007) Link:https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07KAMPALA909_a.html

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