There is certain movements that will strike as more expensive for the East African Community (EAC). This being for the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Government of Kenya (GoK), who has big plans of petroleum pipelines from their oil-fields and to the coast. That being from Turkana to Lamu Port. While the Ugandan oil goes from Hoima to Tanga Port in Tanzania. Both development and industrial projects will have issues with the funding. The World Bank has supported massive infrastructure projects in both countries.
Therefore, for the two counties big development and oil industry, this is giant set-back, since they have to find funding and loans for the pipelines on the open market. Even with higher interests and making the profits of it lesser, than it would have been with a World Bank loan. It would not hurt the pocket as much as it does on the open market. The banks wants more profits themselves and also make sure they are paid-in-full.
With all this in mind. There are speculations, but first. Parts of the self-answering service. Before we look at the reactions in Kenya and Uganda. All of are important, as the state is involved in the licensing and building the pipelines. They are directly into the development and procurement of the pipelines. That is why this is big blow for the administrations and their possible tax-profits on it.
Word Bank Q&A:
“Q. How is “upstream” oil and gas defined?
Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas” (World Bank, 2017).
“Current projects in our portfolio would continue as planned. However, no new investments in upstream oil and gas would be undertaken after 2019, unless under exceptional circumstances as noted in the decision” (World Bank, 2017).
“The announcement by the bank, which has significant interests in Kenya’s oil prospecting sector, does not bode well for the country’s anticipated entry into the club of oil producing nations beginning next year. Analysts said they do not expect an immediate reaction to the announcement even as they acknowledged that it takes the shine from oil in the long term” (…) “Locally, the World Bank is offering technical support to the Kenyan government, through the Kenya Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, to prime all stakeholders for commercial oil production and sale. The six-year programme is scheduled to run until February 2021 and involves the World Bank managing a Sh5.2 billion fund set up by investors from Germany, Norway and Britain. The World Bank’s private lending arm, International Finance Corporation, is however directly involved in Kenya’s oil fields, having a 6.83 per cent stake in Africa Oil, the Canadian exploration firm with interests in northern Kenya oil blocks” (Mutegi, 2017)
“The pipeline, is expected to be completed by the year 2020, when the country is scheduled to start oil production. In fact, Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni and his Tanzanian counterpart recently commissioned the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The two leaders laid mark stones for the crude oil pipeline in Mutukula, Kyotera district and Kabaale in Hoima district. Total E&P Uganda, a subsidiary of French oil giant, Total S.A, is spearheading the construction of the crude oil pipeline on behalf of the joint venture partners. Adewale Fayemi, the general manager, Total E&P Uganda says discussions are ongoing to discuss on the formalities of how the pipeline will be run. Already, an agreement has been reached that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will be run and managed by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) – private pipeline company. This means that a private company will be incorporated with joint venture partners – Tullow Uganda, Cnooc Uganda Ltd and Total E&P Uganda, and the governments of Uganda and Tanzania as shareholders in the company” (Ssekika, 2017)
Certainly, this will put a strain on the projects. They have to deliver another type of arrangement to make sure they get funding and have the funds to pay the added interests the banks wants. The added points on the dollar and the interest-rates will hit state-owned firms and the state itself. Since the pipelines most likely becomes more expensive and will be less profitable.
That the World Bank is pulling out of these projects is all within line of the Paris Accord, as they have professed is the reason. Still, this will make these projects more expensive and make sure they are earning less on it. Unless, the crude-oil prices are going up to a level that makes these investments even more profitable. That is only for time to tell. Since it is costly projects and also sophisticated to build. There is needed lots of expertise combined state planning to achieve the development plans.
This is just the beginning, but the pipelines and these investments are vital for both Kenya and Uganda. As the governments are already borrowing state funds on the possible earnings from the oil reserves in their basins. Therefore, they need to drill and need the petrodollar as quickly as possible. Peace.
Mutegi, Mugambi – ‘World Bank dims Turkana oil hopes’ (14.12.2017) link: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-dims-Turkana-oil-hopes/996-4227848-u02v8n/index.html
Ssekika, Edward – ‘East African Crude Oil Pipeline: The Inside Story’ (11.12.2017) link: http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/economy/east-african-crude-oil-pipeline-the-inside-story-details-emerge-of-how-the-crude-oil-pipeline-will-be-financed-managed.html
World Bank – ‘Q&A: The World Bank Group and Upstream Oil and Gas’ (12.12.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/qa-the-world-bank-group-and-upstream-oil-and-gas
There are circulated and planned demonstrations against the National Resistance Movement and their “elected” government during the General Election of 2016 and was announced and declared by Eng. Dr. Badru M. Kiggundu on the 20th February. That they waited for the Supreme Court Petition of Amama Mbabazi that they cascaded and destroyed by all means. Just the same way the Uganda Police Force went after Democratic Party Members, FDC supporters and leadership in the days after to destroy evidence of the altering and rigging of the election.
The Reason why Uganda People’s Congress haven’t done or had any issues after the Election is because their leader Jimmy Akena have done deals with the NRM and even had his own people in the party campaign for the NRM in certain areas. Therefore they have been left in peace as they in solidarity have concocted an campaign trail together with the NRM, as well as the Party had no Presidential Candidate, which is also an extended token to the NRM and their Executive.
So with all of that mind, with the electoral climate and the electoral process that have been farce, where the South Sudanese rented troops was around in the nation during the election days, together with the army and anti-riot police stationed on the streets while the election and polling where held. Where the ballots and pre-ticking extensions and the certainty of Police involvement in central parts of the electoral process, then you know that the general election was neither free nor fair for the people and the citizens hadn’t their vote, they got the people the Executive had selected, not the ones the people wanted to have elected.
Elected by the people is whole stage of difference than the Selected from the Executive. That is power of the President and the president that has presided since 1986. The man who does not believes in the will of his own people, because he selected the leaders for them, if they don’t show loyalty towards him. He is the only man with a vision, as well have heard so clearly and everybody else is not able to run the country. I am sure he has stalled the procurement of the Cobalt 60 Teletherapy Machine at the Uganda Cancer Institute to facilitate more cows to one of his ranches.
In this days and age, the reason for extra haste and other meetings at the State House is that the Russian and French investors in the Oil Development that is the key to new ways of extorting the state, as the Executive have done for 3 decades. The reason why the deals of the Pipeline between Ugandan Government, Tanzanian counterparts and the Total E&P Uganda is uncertain, as much as the drilling agreements in Lake Albert by Total, China National Oil Offshore Corporation (CNOOC) and the others who have gotten rights to do so. But, that is not important as the exotic dancing at the clubs of Kabalagala in the Suburb of Kampala is the real danger of the country. Just ask the wise-guy Hon. Jim Muhwezi, he has the vision for the sodomy of the nation and the danger of dancing!
The hesitation also of the final days of the 9th Parliament to fix themselves some more cash without questions while stalling the budget talks for next budget year of 2016/17 that was supposed to voted-in Parliament; but the Members of Parliament wanted to be sure of a pay-rise for the Nobel duty of being Selected by the Executive. The Executive knows this and let it go, because he knows if he needs anything done he can just give them little sweet brown-envelopes and they will let him be giddy.
So with that all in mind, the planned demonstrations, the running and planning building a petroleum industry behind closed chambers, the amazement of last-pitched laws of the 9th Parliament and last saga of late the speakership of the 10th Parliament.
10th Parliament like the 9 Parliament before needs a speaker and people are fighting for it, the Incumbent Kadaga believes she is the one for it again, the deputy Oulanya believes it his turn and other are throwing in their vote for confidence of being it. The NRM have no plans of letting a opposition leading the Parliament minutes and the organizing the structure of the lawful assembly of the land. That cannot happen, because the NRM and the Executive need to work in own speed and own liking as the Executive is the final word as he fix the votes and run the land. Therefore his last word on who becomes it and who is dismissed, just like Amama Mbabazi and Gilbert Bukenya have been dismissed by him for their ambition, so if the speakers become the same; I am sure he will do it again with force of the NRM CEC and the screaming tone of NRM Secretary General Justine Kasule-Lumumba. Be noted, that will happen, because he keeps people hungry and when they see a moment of eating more than expected then he hit back.
As we note the days and coming days. The tension of the faulted election will unfold and the questions will remain at what force the Police and Army will address the men and woman who walks to demonstrate, and how will the rest of the days between the 5th May and to the 12th May go. There are the historical pains of the Walk to Work where the tear-gas and the crackdown of it. The Police have ever since been monitoring and also spying on the opposition with their Political Police and Commission that been vicious on the dismantling the hopes of the opposition.
So how it might go is hard to predict as we can hope of the grand show-up of the Nomination Day around Kampala, if so then the Police Force cannot take them all and wind-down the demonstration with water-cannons, live-bullets and tear-gas. This I say because this is the tactics of the Police Force, even take Helicopters and Armoured Personnel Carriers and Mambas filled with officers to control with harassment of the fellow citizens. So the Police will want to dissolve the matters and the will of the people with the tarnish of civil disobedience. That is what I am worried about as the loss of life and the loss of will after 30 years of oppression.
And I have not even mentioned the started wrangles between the councillors, KCCA administration of the selected men and woman of President Museveni and the elected Lord Mayor that they want to rid-off for the second time. Because the Mzee believes all of the opposition supporters of Kampala are cockroaches or rats, depending on the way he does not talk about crash or kill opposition as proven in the Supreme Court Election Petition of 2016. But, hey maybe I am wrong. You can do the fact check on the words used by the His Excellency during and after the Election Day.
So even if Don Museveni gets President Mugabe, President Kenyatta, President Kagame, President Kabila, President Kiir, President Al-Bashir, President Sheik Mohamud, President Magafuli, President Gulleh, Prime Minster Hailemariam Desalegn and so on. They will surely grace him at Kololo and surely nobody will attack the car of President Mugabe this time. As they did last time he entered a roundabout on the road towards Kampala from Entebbe International Airport. Surely the men and woman, who grace the Kololo, will either be the few die-hards of NRM, the actually paid for the day Crime Preventers and the ones that are earning on the National Resistance Movement. Even some ambassadors and other pleasantries will show-up. Even some of the singers like Bebe Cool and Jose Chameleone will be there to sing-a-song. So you are warned.
The levels and magnitude of it all is how the world will perceive the days and how the Police Force will act towards the Opposition. How the mentality and the grandest approach, how the rhetoric and words from the ruling party will also show the TRUE state of affairs.
The international reactions and the real surface of how they will deal with it; as we know the American Africa Corp have recently given more technical gear and training to the Ugandan Army in Somalia. Not that makes headlines or be questioned as the President Obama have talked about leaders who never leaves, but at the same time gives handouts to the same men he critic. That is saying something, but acting differently and is hard to fully follow and accept.
It is in this view that the 12th May will show who is loyal and who his friends are, this will show how powerful and loyalty towards the 30 year ruling President Museveni. The Besigye move is deteriorate and also show that the legitimate Executive are something Museveni is not, not at this point and time. Therefore he uses all tactics to oppression and harassment of the opposition. That I fear also will transpire in the coming days as the Police Force, UPDF Special Force Command and the Flying Squad will surface to violate the rights of fellow citizens of Uganda without any consideration to the violence or the extended freedoms they take away to enforce the rule of their Executive. That is the sad prospects I envision, but if the people show up on the 5th May 2016 as they did on the Presidential Nomination day in November 2015, then the Police Force cannot “kill” or dissolve the demonstration. They have to let it go, because the majority will control the streets even when the Anti-Riot Police have to lay low as they can’t brawl with every person on the street. They can only take a small piece of the population, as they are a minority, but a minority with weapons.
Let’s hope that the oppressive regime will get a peaceful shock and that the preparation for the Swearing-In at Kololo Independence Ground will be shackled and feel the heave of the population tiredness of their Executive and his regime. Peace.
There was not too far ago when the Government of Kenya was dreaming in their wild pipedream to advance their own ideas and manage to hook the Ugandan Government so they wouldn’t continue with the progressive agreement with Tanzanian counter-parts. In the end it seems like the waves are long gone. The wind from Lake Albert never seemed to turn.
We had to wait until 23rd April 2016 to be reassured that the President Museveni and his NRM could not be persuaded to be a continued or locked into the LAPSSET: Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport. So it would be from Hoima, Western Uganda into the Northern Kenya bypass into the prospected lines would go there both from Ethiopia and South Sudan down to the shores and bays of Lamu Port.
Instead Uganda have continued and promised to honour the 2015 Memorandum of Understanding with Tanzania the Uganda–Tanzania Crude Oil Pipeline (UTCOP); that goes from Hoima or Lake Albert through the Tanzanian nation down to the shores of the Tanga Port. This is also because of the agreements and assurance of both governments and also the new Oil-Drilling companies in Uganda like Total and ENI. They have also spoken their peace and does not feel safe as where the Pipeline goes through uncertain areas of Kenya.
So there will be two pipelines and in close reach and also with distinguished end-game; as the economic prospects are changed, the rates for oil-transport will be lost in the sight of Kenya. The Kenyan cannot now have future prospects of the oil-rates and jobs as a Pipeline gives. They will have cough-up the funding and most likely more borrowed money for the grand infrastructure.
The Ugandan will use funds and borrow monies to fund the pipeline-building and also give tax-payers and jobs in Tanzania. The rates by just transporting the oil from A-B will be a good tax-base for the Tanzanian Government. President Kenyatta hoped that his close relationship would help him and also with his Deputy Ruto also campaigning for Museveni to give something back. Seems like that didn’t help as the President Kikwete already have sweetened the tea and offered something that also helps to calm down the Oil-Drilling investors and their envelopes.
CS Keter of Kenya must be disappointed as his detained moment in Tanga Port came to nothing and the KDF forces inside Somalia are the reason for the fallout. Though I doubt that is the main reason. That is the diplomatic reason from the Ugandan Government. Ugandan Government and NRM-Regime is about money. They are all about the money, therefore the non-accountability and non-open tax-regime. The Ugandan Government would never say that is the main reason, but if Total, ENI and CNOOC words and tax-base is the current controlling the reasons for President Museveni. As he wants them on his side; so he can have secret deals with the Oil-Companies and keep the low-key taxes; not to talk about the un-disclosed agreements between them and the government of Uganda.
Therefore I am not surprised I think they only went into the talks in Kenya to please their neighbour and trading-partner as the relationship have soften over the last few months and the President of Kenya and President of Uganda have cherished more time together. As President Museveni have played the big-man and asked for suitors while waiting for the words from the Oil-Companies. The excuse of not taking Kenya is certainly been given by the Oil-Companies as the Ugandan President will only take the highest rates and the lowest fees for the construction. We can see that the borrowed monies that will be used should have low-charges and be clearly not too bad to GDP or the national inflation.
Still, the matters remain how the relationship really is between Uganda and Kenya. As they have fought over the little Migingo Island and chicken export fiasco. An the Recently also covered a squabble over Yellow Fever Notes to give to Border Patrols to be relieved and be allowed to Enter into Kenya from Uganda. So with the decision to abandon all hope for Kenya and totally give way to Tanzania; will be hurting the pride of the Harambee in the coming weeks. Especially since the Kenyan has tried to get the Ugandan’s to use their port instead. This backfired and didn’t work.
I hope that this doesn’t stop the other Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP) as of the Standard Gauge Railway and others that can connect the nations and bring softer transport of people and goods between the East African nations. Certainly the matter is at hand and the justification would be “terrorism” as why the pipeline didn’t get extended. Though I believe it is much more to say “cash money” and in general the black gold revenues.
This here will certainly be uncovered over time and the real reason will show-up by the Al-Shabab is a deflection and we know the gig is up. Peace.
“I wouldn’t ask these foreigners, but I would never accept these foreigners to give me orders about Uganda. Or about anything in the world! They got their own countries to run. Let them go and run them. Uganda is ours. Nobody gives us orders here” – President Museveni at Kololo Independence Grounds Speech while celebrating the “Double Victory” on 9th April 2016.
Now that it is not long ago he told the world that Uganda was his playground and he could shot and kill opposition because they had no place in his country. From the same man and leader comes this. Let me ask the international community to react to violent behavior and the aggression this President shows his own county.
The racketeering of the NRM and their Executive has to stop at one point. That can happen when the funds dry up and the ammunition does come with the next boat. The American should stop with their alliance and their UPDF trainings. The Americans should do as they did with the MCC in Tanzania; suspend the projects and direct-donor aid to budget funding of the Ugandan Government.
The French should stop supporting the Government projects in Northern Uganda and cut their loans as they have promised to effect directly the RDC and the other loyal cronies of Northern Uganda. This does so the Capos of the Don get their monies and keeps eating. While the Japanese should stop supporting infrastructure projects together with the Chinese Foreign Ministry, while the CNOOC should terminate their contract with the Uganda Government. Total Oil firm of the French should suspend their operation until the government accept their blood-money. The Same with Heritage Oil for Britain so the UK Gov. should disband their direct government support and take away the incentive from UK to Uganda. The Norwegian Government should suspend the Oil for Development Program that have been a steady program since 2006. Because if you hurt it where it could become most important, then the Don Museveni might listen.
The European Union should to hurt the Foreign Exchange rate suspend the import of Robusta Coffee beans from Uganda, as the export of this is a major factor in the economic trade in the land-lock country. “A total of 271,941 bags of coffee valued at US$ 25.12 million were exported in February 2016 -Source UCDA report”. If you want to hit where it hurts, then you take away the foreign exchange and the foreign exports. This here could really hurt the government that does not want to have any interference or questions about their rule.
If the Donors and giving aid, would suspend or cut the services for the Peacekeepers, the same reaction that the Dutch did with the Burundian Peacekeepers in the AMISOM in Somalia. The same could be done by the American Government and EU as they are the major benefactors for the economic spending ground and facilitators for it.
It is not like I am for neo-colonialism, but when a totalitarian and gangster like Don Museveni complains about the US Mission questioning his oppressive behavior and European Union saying their opinion on the display of character showed during the Election and announcement of the results. Then it seems like he does not need any-more international legitimacy for his rule. Only their money and aid when it comes in handy too fuel money to a private plane, refurnishing the State Houses, buying new cars and more estates. Especially considering in FY 2013/2014 the donor assistance of the total budget was 21 % of it. Therefore the USAID, World Bank, IMF, DFID, European Commission, Irish Aid, NORAD and the other contributors should suspend that for the coming financial year of FY 2016/2017. To not hurt the citizens do this instead!
They should support the IDP camps and refugee camps in the Ugandan country through United Nations programs and organizations, build stronger relationship with NGOs in Uganda and forge good governance programs instead of supporting a government who is carrying out rigged election and embezzlement of government funds and international aid. Therefore progressive use of the tax-payers money from the Western Hemisphere, and if that is not working then, use it instead on local infrastructure projects to their own tax-payers.
Especially when a specialized report on Donor Aid to Ugandan Government says this:
“Budget support has not helped much in relation to cross sectoral dialogue. Some improvement was realized in education sector as dialogue with Ministry of Local Government and Ministry of Public Service improved. But this has not happened for the health sector” (…)”The power relations between bilaterals and Global Health Initiatives including PEPFER, Global Fund, GAVI, Stop Malaria etc shifted in favour of the latter who had no experience in the development of the budget support process and completely ignored to an apparent ineffectiveness” (…)”Budget support resulted in a greater commitment and quality of dialogue on PFM issues, especially after 2007 with the launch of FINMAP and JBSF. The influence of performance measures on sector dialogue declined from 2011/12, as the link with releases became less clear” (Joint Evaluation of Budget Support to Uganda – Final Report – 2015, P: 132).
This here proves the values of the Donor-Funding and the Budget Support from the International community to the Ugandan Government and the NRM-Regime. The NRM mafia under Don Museveni who says that the Ugandan authority do not want to have internal interference and foreign people questioning his playground. Therefore the authority and the Don want to rest things into peace he lets the people end up resting in peace. As he takes the Army and Police to detain the ones it needs and use draconian laws to oppress his own people.
Therefore with also the fraudulent election to keep the NRM mafia in order and also silence the opposition; as it even did yesterday the 9th March 2016 with the Military Police taking over the Nakivubo Settlement Primary School so the “Victory Celebration” that was supposed to be held there with Lord Mayor Lukwago and FDC Leader Besigye. This happen while the Crime Preventers, NRM Diehards and the new MPs we’re celebrating at Kololo Independence Grounds while costing the 1, 5 billion shillings. The racket also carries to pay their own and let the kingpin eat the money alone. As he has done since 1986 and the donor have continued to fund the budget support and give Don Museveni money to do his bidding.
Therefore I ask the governments to question if they want to deliver more money the NRM Mafia who uses monies to the army and police, squander away State House money on funding his campaign and also rumors of AMISOM contingent. There are certain numbers on his spending on military is staggering over the years. In between 2011 and end of term 2016 the taxpayers and donor-funding the total Shs. 6.617 trillion to the Army, Police and Intelligence Agencies. Of this in MPS in February 2015 into the portfolio of sophisticated military equipment there was the extended use of Shs. 470 billion, alone that year.
So with that knowledge and knowing the international donors should consider some reactions as he does not accept any interference not internal and not external. The Playground might be for the moment him, the Don Museveni has spoken of killing demonstrating citizens and opposition. The harassment of the ones that question the power of the kingpin!
That is when the international donors in the powers of US Mission in Kampala and their Amb. Malac recently; and also when the European Union does state the fact that the election was not free and fair. Therefore the Don Museveni feels betrayed as this has been loyal men who have given money to his government and not question his power or rule. Because they needed him to do their dirty-laundry and also have a steady ally in the East Africa; as the US have a relationship with Ethiopia and also Kenya, but have a longer engagement with the Ugandan Government, and now accepting the harassment of opposition as a price for some form of stability.
While the other donor-funding is not questioning other than expressing some have cut funding over the $12 Million that was going to Northern Uganda Development Fund (NUDF) in the 2012, that went lost to through the Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi. Also the Anti-Gay Bill had their reactions from UK, Norway and Dutch who cut parts of their aid. So now it is the time again, as the oppression, election fraud and the man who want to be the Don and acts like the Don of Uganda. The Godfather of Uganda has spoken. He does not want to be inference. So since he does not wish to have interference the international donors and bilateral organizations should offer him a hand with that.
The International donors and bilateral organizations should certainly suspend their direct budget support to the Ugandan Government. As they don’t wish to have any interference and can handle it all on their own. The money should instead spend on the Multi-National Organizations working in Uganda, as the OCHA, UNICEF and WFP as they will submit and carry out quick resolved matters in Internal Displaced Camps and around the borders through their projects. Since that will not have any other government questioning their actions, then the other governments should not help to fund their actions. Simple rhetorical assessment that banish the 20 % power of the funds that Don Museveni has at his disposal and use; when outsiders are such a pain, then the pain should leave Don Museveni alone and not support him.
So the Donors and Bilateral organizations should cut their aid and give less power to Don Museveni and his NRM Mafia who spends and eats alone; while his government does not have money to build health care, roads, schools or the other necessities in the Ugandan Society. But not with Foreign tax-payers money, when they get used on the expensive cars, lavish lifestyle, foreign health care and private planes for the Godfather. There is time to take action as the gangster will act as Don and not as a Statesman. Henceforth, when a player does not want question, but accept your money and not accountable for them; and when the player squander the money and expect to get away with it. Then the Player should lose the ability to get the money from you. The Don Museveni have already had long enough time to deliver and used enough of donor-funds without showing progress. Time to cross out the donor-funding to direct budget support; then Don Museveni does not need to be questioned. As the international community will not have put a stake and being stakeholders for certain parts of the budget. But when they step away, then Don Museveni can be the kingpin and the gangster he want to be in military fatigue and do as he want in his playground, without opposition who should just stay home; and also without foreigners questioning him. Then he can rule alone with the capos, underbosses and then be grand Don Museveni. Peace.