Ethiopia: Rising inflation [is it a result of the Law Enforcement Operation?]

In Ethiopia there been open warfare since November 2020. This is now seeing effects far away from the Tigray region. The truth is that warfare and conflicts cost. You pay for mercenaries, soldiers, food, shelter and heavy weaponry. All of that costs and implicates the economy. The spending have to go from somewhere and has to settled. This means certain other parts of the economy looses its value or gets less of investments. In which things gets scarce or get hit by the new demand. Since the Tripartite Alliance needs more supplies for their warfare.

Addis Fortune Reported on the 5th April 2021 this:

There appears little solace for consumers in Ethiopia, with the year-on-year headline inflation reaching at 20.6pc in March this year, a little over the nearly 20pc annual average last year. The largest increase in prices was seen in food items such as edible oil, fruit and vegetables and spice, according to a statement by the Ethiopian Statistics Agency. The consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March shows a 22pc jump compared to the same period last month. Non-food items such as fuel and energy, alcohol, tobacco and chat as well as transport, medical expense and construction materials have seen an increase in prices of 18.9pc” (Addis Fortune – ‘Headline Inflation Reaches 20.6pc on Year’, 05.04.2021).

This is the government excuse for the rising inflation:

ADDIS ABABA–The continuous demand-supply imbalance and ill-investment strategy of the former administration have resulted in the structural and worsening current inflation, so disclosed Planning and Development Commission. The Commission’s Deputy Commissioner with the rank of State Minister Nemera Gebeyehu (Ph.D) told The Ethiopan Press Agencey (EPA) that even though many people believe inflation is worsened after the reform, the reform measures taken by the government do minimize the inflation, but a lot remains to be done since it is structural driven from the ill-investment strategy of the former administration” (Dargie Kahsay – ‘Ethiopia: Previous Maladministration Takes Blame for Current Inflation – Commission’, 03.04.2021, The Ethiopian Herald).

We are clearly seeing here the effects of the mismanagement or priorities of the state. A steady war is costly and the price of that is on the citizens. That is why the prices are going up and the state will lack currency. The state will do whatever it can to continue supply and generate enough funds. Which in the end means more inflation and devalued currency, which will also means the citizens will get less for their money and imported goods will be more expensive. It is a vicious circle and a negative spiral. That this government is doing by its efforts as a Tripartite Alliance member and fighting on its own soil.

The Prosperity Party is also blaming the old EPRDF, which it was in coalition with and consolidated power from. The PP is practically not taking responsibility for the actions in office and only pushes it on the previous government. That is really rich. Just like all warfare is the TPLF to blame in Tigray. This is following a pattern and the excuses is getting old.

The PP should seriously be worried about the rate the inflation is going and what shocks this will have for the citizens. There is already videos reminiscent of the fuel crisis in 2015. This being leaked clips and statements of troubles getting fuel in Addis Ababa all week. That is a sign of what to come and costs of the war.

The Addis Ababa administration should be worried about this. The costs of war is coming forward now. Not only the loss of prestige with the Prime Minster and the image as a whole. The PP and the PM isn’t looking like reformers anymore, but as a warlords. They are not only brining destruction to the Region of Tigray, but also destroying the economy as a result. This will be carried for long and effects of the war will take a toll. We can just wonder about how many will pay the additional costs and struggle because of it. That is how these things goes. The elites and the one in-charge will not feel it, but the average citizen has to live with the new standard. They are paying the price for the inflation and have to collect whatever they can out of their currency. Peace.

Ethiopia: Press Release from the Tigrayan Nationalist Parties Forum on the Deteriorating Humanitarian crisis in Tigray (09.04.2021)

Ethiopia: Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) – Press Release (08.04.2021)

Ethiopia: The Finfinne Intercept leaked diplomatic cables of planned efforts to thwart international sanctions

All efforts must be made to use every means to stop another resolution on Ethiopia to be adopted by the House” (Finfinne Intercept – Briefing Note on the latest development in the Tigray Region, P: 6, 01.04.2021).

The Finfinne Intercept have dropped an intelligence document of what is sent to the authorities and state agencies. This is cables and other messages from the state to ensure their case is sufficiently told abroad. It is clear that the Addis Ababa government and Prosperity Party wants to block and stifle possible sanctions on itself.

The Finfinne Intercept described the leak like this: “A diplomatic cable leaked to FI shows Ethiopian authorities are anxious about possible sanctions from the US and the EU over their handling of the humanitarian crisis in Tigray. The internal memo also suggests Ethio-Eritrean relations may have hit a rough patch as a result of Ambassador Dina Mufti’s remarks about Eritrea’s independence” (Finfinne Intercept, 05.04.2021).

The Ethiopian government wants to ensure the state doesn’t get any punitive actions for what it has done to its own citizens. They want the Europeans and Americans lawmakers to not use their mechanisms to punish the Ethiopian regime who is overseeing the conflict and ordering the destruction of Tigray.

That is really evident by what is in the Briefing Note from Finfinne Intercept. This is maybe late, but important information, which should be public. This shows the intention of the Ethiopian counterparts. Where they are targeting the United States and European Union with direct plans to either water down legislation or stop the other from activating their mechanisms.

Pressure of US and US Legislators:

It is also important to note that there is push for another resolution on Ethiopia to be adopted by the House. The text was introduced by Congresswoman Karen Bass who serves in the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and Chairs the Sub Committee on Africa, Global Health, and Global Human Rights. The text calls on the United States Government to consider application of existing United States sanctions authority, including as provided for in the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, for gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” (…) “It is also absolutely critical to do the same in trying to water down the text introduced in the House and make sure that it reflects the significant progresses made recently” (Finfinne Intercept – Briefing Note on the latest development in the Tigray Region, P: 5-6, 01.04.2021).

Pressure on EU:

What High Representative Joseph Borell said in terms of the EU’s readiness to activate all its foreign policy tools against those responsible for human rights violations should be taken seriously and efforts should be made to stop the activation” (Finfinne Intercept – Briefing Note on the latest development in the Tigray Region, P: 10, 01.04.2021).

Just these small statements and sentences says enough. How the Ethiopian authorities plans to boil things down and stop international sanctions. These leaked cables clearly show their intentions and what sort of game-plan the Ethiopians have. They are not concealed here or in diplomatic language. What the reported leaks says, seems true as well. As the Ethiopian Embassies are “explaining” and “writing” statements to any reporting coming out about the conflict. Therefore, this FI Report is validated just by that alone.

As the final piece of text from there: “A greater coordination between and among our Embassies and Missions in Europe and America should be established to make every possible effort to explain the important steps taken on the ground to respond to the concerns raised by the US and the EU. Time is of the essence” ((Finfinne Intercept – Briefing Note on the latest development in the Tigray Region, P: 11, 01.04.2021).

This shows the deliberate actions and means, which the Ethiopian authorities goes by. They are ordered and told in cables to be active. To use their platforms to respond, which they do every single time. That is the coordinated efforts and proves it is planned. They are setting the agenda and also trying to undermine the reporting. Which isn’t of the nature and the mind of the ruler in Addis Ababa. That is why these cables are sent out in the first place.

That the FI – The Station leaked these cables and dropped it online. Will make it able for more people to see what extent the Ethiopian government goes through to undermine and stop others from acting on the crimes against humanity. The massacres, the starvation and all other efforts to win the guerrilla war in Tigray. That is deliberate act of the state and its now up in the open. A sort of game plan the state would have been preferred to be kept hidden. However, one civil servant or several wanted to be whistleblowers and dropped this for the whole world to see. Peace.

Ethiopia: Oromo Legacy Leadership and Advocacy Association – OLLAA Demands Investigation into Shawa Robit Massacre and Justice for Victims’ Families (07.04.2021)

Ethiopia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs – On the Media and alleged Human Rights violations and other crimes committed in Tigray (07.04.2021)

Ethiopia: The Global Society of Tigray Scholarsand Professionals (GSTS) letter to United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet (06.04.2021)

Ethiopia: OLF-OLA High Command Statement (05.04.2021)

Opinion: The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is praising Eritrea!

Ethiopia MFA twitter statement: “Ethiopia is grateful to the government & people of Eritrea for neutralizing the attacks of the treasonous TPLF clique by treating our soldiers & standing with us after they were backstabbed by their own colleagues. While the world seems to misunderstand, wittingly or otherwise, Ethiopia’s efforts to enforce law and order in Tigray, we appreciate those, like the people & government of #Eritrea, who understand our context. Ethiopia also lauds the solidarity of the Eritrean diasporas with their Ethiopian counterparts in the recently held rallies in major cities in the West supporting Ethiopia’s determination to fight misinformation & prejudice on critical issues to the country” (Ethiopia Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 05.04.2021).

We are living in 2021 and things not stopping to surprise me. Today is a day where the Tripartite Alliance is in full effect. The alliance between Ethiopia, Amhara and Eritrea is now in full force. As the Eritrean are continuing to defend their actions in Ethiopia by their Shabait website or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs are now praising the Eritrean effort in the Law Enforcement Operation. That is clear by the tweets written and published today on their account there today.

The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is clearly telling they are thankful and grateful for their actions. The Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) who is using vile force in the Tigray Region. An army that has been looting, raping and even causing horrific massacres an-mass there. We don’t know the full scope of war crimes happening in the region, but what we do know is devastating.

The Eritrean army have caused havoc. Have used all means to silence, stop and assault the region. There has been no tools they are not allowed to use. The Eritrean soldiers have used not only weapons, but inciting fear. They are using all means to go after the TPLF. While the Eritrean state is calling all reports as “bullshit” and saying they are “innocent”. Which cannot be true, when they are allowed to do everything and witnesses is telling what has happened after the fact.

What is evident today is that there is an official axis between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They are now brothers in arms against one enemy. They are beholden to each other and support each other. That is evident by their articles and words. They are sparring for each other and defending each other too.

That is why Shabait have articles dismissing and telling all ills of the TPLF. Because Asmara only did this all in self-defence. However, that is not all true and they we’re pre-planned to happen. The Ethiopian and Eritrean allies had moved troops and ordered it to happen before the 4th November 2021. That has been reported and shown how the troops moved ahead of the launch of the Law Enforcement Operation. Which was meant to be … even before the Northern Command ever was stormed by the Tigray Defence Force (TDF).

We can clearly see the Ethiopian-Eritrean alliance is working in tandem. They are defending each other. Not only with their soldiers, but by their acts too. Their official stances and statements are becoming friendly. That’s because they need each other and they are fighting the same battles.

Abiy and Afwerki is now both warlords. The PM and President is fighting the same war. They are bound by the fate of this war and the reports that comes from it. These two are no aligned and have to co-operate to get their objectives done. That’s why Addis Ababa is sending tokens of appreciation and cheering on for the EDF.

The war in Tigray is clearly showing the lack of heart in the administrations of Asmara and Addis Ababa. When they are praising the rivers of blood and the suffering of one region. Because, they need each other to able to cope with one guerrilla outfit. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy’s Law Enforcement Operation have become a guerrilla war

Currently, the national defence forces and the federal forces are in a major fight on 8 fronts in the north and the west (parts of the country) with the enemies which are anti-farmers, anti-civilians and caused strife among Ethiopians and are paying a sacrifice” – Prime Minister Ahmed Ali Abiy (03.04.2021)

On the 15th November 2020 I wrote about the Law Enforcement Operation that the Prime Minister had opened the “Pandora’s Box”. Which is now revealed all too be true. The ordered operation that was supposed to end at end of November last year. However, we know that this is on-going and a continued warfare in the region. The civil war in Tigray is continuing to this day.

It seems to have no end and that the “conventional” war with the tripartite alliance of forces isn’t able to totally counter the defensive forces. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) and Amhara Paramilitary Group “Fano” doesn’t have it in them to beat the Tigray Defence Force (TDF)

The armed forces of the tripartite alliance is using all means to destroy, annihilate and get rid of its enemies. They have been reported of several of massacres, looting and rape. They are using all means of war. Air-strikes, shelling and other means as well. They have mechanical battalions and tanks on the fields as well. So, they have not speared the conflict any sort of advanced techniques to kill the enemy. However, we are seeing that its not bearing fruits.

The Prime Minister promised a quick operation and ending. They we’re even in the final phases. Nevertheless, it seems like he overplayed his hands and possible amount of success. The Prime Minister have been outsmarted at his own game. He went to war and has since then been stuck in a quagmire. A sort of affair, where more and more atrocities are reported. Where the international community and everyone who follows see the rising numbers of fatalities and hears about the violations of the codes of war. The PM is clearly losing this and he cannot even phantom the counter-attacks of his enemy.

The PM thought the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) wouldn’t use their advantage and know-how of their region? The PM wouldn’t consider the one attacked in their homes and villages wouldn’t use counter-attacking means? He just expected them all just to do a battle-royal on the fields and call-it-a-day. If the PM thought so… he is either blind or stupid.

The TDF is using the means of guerrilla warfare. Which is the most productive means to counter-attack such forces as the tripartite alliance. They are using the knowledge and surroundings to their advantage. They know where to hide and where to possible ambush their enemy. That is what the TDF is doing to the tripartite alliance who is invading their lands. If the PM doesn’t grasp this… he has sent these former allies and former comrades to the bush to combat him.

Now the PM and his tripartite alliance is in the midst of a guerrilla war. They are no longer in a “conventional” war… the alliance of the state has already been known for taking state buildings in towns and cities making them into barracks. Where they are stationing soldiers and using universities, schools and even hospitals as bases in the region.

Clearly, the tripartite alliance is doing its best and trying to figure out ways to combat these insurgencies and sudden attacks from its enemy. Nevertheless, this sort of warfare will not be short-lived. The enemy of the tripartite alliance will mask itself and even become the terrain if needed be. They will blend into the general public and suddenly strike as they see fit. Therefore, the 8 fronts is only in the manner the TDF can practically make the lines of attack weaker. As the tripartite alliance needs to stretch its soldiers and front-lines. They cannot focus on single targets and goals. They have to move the goal-post and not just be in area at the time. That is because the ones they are fighting is local guerrillas, that is born and raised in the region. They are fighting for their homes and rights to rule in their region. This is why they are able and can prolong it in this manner.

Prime Minister should understand this. That the Pandora’s Box that he opened in November 2020. Will be a long saga and be the blood-stain that he never gets clean his hands off. This conflict is the war that will be his legacy and mark his reign. The Law Enforcement Operation is his whole project to own and carry. That he has failed it and haven’t delivered is his fault. He promised a quick-fix, but in the end… The PM will have to manage a long-running forever war with guerrillas. Which will only give up when the invaders are leaving. Peace.