The Tripartite Alliance, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), Eritrean Defence Force and Amhara Special Forces/ Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” have in this ‘counteroffensive’ ensured the defeat and taken huge leaps in stopping the tracks of Oromo Liberation Army and the Tigray Defence Forces. They have also taken grounds kept by the Agew Liberation Front. Therefore, the OLA-TDF union has gotten stung by the Tripartite Alliance.
Since, the TDF-OLA advances was going towards Debre Birhan, the joint forces had been able to go as far as Debre Sina. They had also advanced into the Molale in North Shewa and Mehal Meda in Menz Gera Midir woreda. That was reported as late as 22nd November 2021. Since then things have turned ugly and the TDF-OLA have lost on most fronts.
This ‘counteroffensive’ have been successful, as North Wollo and Lalibela have been taken over by the by Tripartite Alliance. These have gotten as far as the Kombolcha and Dessie. These places was officially taken over by the TDF-OLA on the 31st October 2021. Now, by the time of December 2021 these gains seems to be backfiring.
In the Amhara region and in Afar region the TDF-OLA gains seems to have vanished. In the Oromia region the OLA still have taken control over vast areas. While some places are lost and the OLA has gone back to the wilderness, as it did before. Therefore, the war will be prolonged and the damage it does will not be swift.
There was lots of speculations early in November about reaching Addis Ababa. However, at that time the Tripartite Alliance was losing territories and strategic towns outside of the Tigray region. Now, the TDF-OLA union seems shaky, but the TDF says it’s strategical retreat. Nevertheless, that is hard to prove and the gains have been really quick.
Some will praise the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, because all of this happened after he went to the frontline. Still, there is reports of usage of EDF in ENDF uniforms and that there is also support of foreign forces with technical expertize and military equipment, which have given the Tripartite Alliance an advantage. As the TDF-OLA is more ground based and guerrilla warfare. As the ENDF and allies has been more conventional warfare with mechanical divisions and an air-force to back-it up. Therefore, the Tripartite Alliance have taken most of the former advances back.
If the Tripartite Alliance really continues to gain like this. Than nobody should shocked, if they are able to take back Weldiya as well. However, that is only speculation, as there is now words of movement towards Komblocha and Dessie. That is really the clear message.
The TDF-OLA union is shaky now. Unless, these is tactical retreats and the parties are well aware of the consequences. To give the other army a sudden new reach. While also securing the logistics of a stretched armies of the TDF-OLA. Which is very obvious here. Just like there was early misuse of advances within Afar region and closing of the cargo routes to Djibouti. The call for the fall of Addis Ababa in early November 2021 was also stated to early.
This ‘counteroffensive’ has worked just like ‘Operation Alula’ worked earlier in the year. We just have to follow and see how this pans out. However, there is a media-blackout and there is lack of intelligence, as the Nationwide State of Emergency has forbidden leaking information from the front-lines. Therefore, we never know and just have to follow things with gut instinct and never taken the first reported tweets as facts. Since, the state media and the others are spreading their messages too. Peace.