Ethiopia: Notification Note on COVID-19 Situational Update (13.06.2020)

Ethiopia: Abiy is in a foxhole [looking for the ones jumping out of the trenches]

At this point of time there is nothing that surprises me nor shocks me about the ways the Prosperity Party behaves and manoeuvrers. Why do I say that? Well, this week the Parliament have accepted the postponement of the August 2020 elections. As the transition period of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali would be over. However, that is squashed now because of the convenient crisis of COVID-19 or the Coronavirus.

That is just how things goes. Just like the convenient ways of “State of Emergency”, the easy way out of a “Amhara Coup” to install his puppets and so fourth. Everything just falls in line and works out well for the man on the top. He can easily send in forces without a mandate into Somalia. This man can return asylum seekers (political refugees) to Djibouti without any concern. That is just what the PP does.

With this in mind, the postponement of the elections isn’t surprising either. It would be a paradigm shift if there was elections made without any violence, intimidation and rigging. Nevertheless, the supposed reformist has only consolidated the power within the PP. He lost also an ally by doing this. That was the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) the party who ran the old coalition. The Woyane are now trying to flex themselves and are righteous in their motives here. That they are running elections on schedule shows finesse in their region. As a stark contrast to the PP who intend to rule on borrowed time.

As well as joint statement from Oromo parties shows their dissent to the idea of a postponed elections as well. It is not like the PP are winning favours by doing this. We cannot expect a harsh statement from Amhara, as they are already muffled and have loyal men to the PP in power there. Just as the house of Ogaden or the Somali Region has been cleared to secure more friendly foes there too. The PP has taken slowly steps to get the right people in order.

That is why the only questions from the region where the PP should have the most support, as the PM and comrades come from the old OPDO. That is why the strong statement, the resentment and the continues violence in that region is a warning itself. As the state have changed it head, but the actions are the same. The Prime Minister haven’t done anything significant with this. He came in with lots of promises, but they have been shattered with time.

Now its all in the open. There is no surprises anymore and his not even trying. The Prime Minister is only showing his true side to the world. As all parties involved are working for him and ensuring his ways. That is why the Parliament accepted the postponement. Though there are some questionable concerns in doing it. Unless, he wants all his enemies to sprint up and show their facade. Some has and maybe he await more than the three parties mentioned: TPLF, OFC and OLF. He was maybe hoping for more.

What is clear that Prime Minster Abiy isn’t a true reformer. His not a what he meant to be. He did some PR stunts and some speeches, but his true character is out. There is no denying in that now. The Prime Minister has had the time to what he felt was right, but has squandered it or haven’t even cared.

He is playing with fire. A man like Abiy should know this. The PM has already seen the bloodshed in Oromia before. That is still happening with arbitrary arrests and other violent actions done to the population. Therefore, the PM could have acted upon this, but instead turns a blind eye. As he is busy finding new schemes to earn fortunes in office.

This last postponement only shows he uses the pandemic as an opportunity to buy time and see who jumps up from the trenches. The PP will navigate this and figure out what to do. They will have the time to set-up shop and secure the game before its set. The elections isn’t about creating change, but to validate the PP and the Prime Minister. That is why he needs more time to secure all bases. So, that he can rule supreme and have the legitimacy he needs. Because right now, his the “interim” who wants to permanent. Peace.

Ethiopia: Notification Note on COVID-19 Situational Update (12.06.2020)

Ethiopia: Joint statement by OLF & OFC on the illegal Extension Term of Government (10.06.2020)

Ethiopia: Should we worry about the Growing Violence during the short tenure of PM Abiy Ahmed?

The Ethiopian government continues their crackdown on demonstrations and protesters, even if there are positive steps towards better governance within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF). Still, the government have not stopped using the army and there has still be lots of fatalities since the appointment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali in April 2018.

Though Abiy’s tenure has been heralded as a pacifying influence, the number of violent events and protests have actually increased by over 8% in the 6 months since he has taken office, relative to the 6 months prior (from 388 to 420 events). This has corresponded to an increase of over 48% in the number of reported fatalities from 644 fatalities in the 6 months before Abiy took office to 954 fatalities from April to October” (ACLED – ‘CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN PROTESTS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE PM ABIY’S ETHIOPIA’ 13.10.2018).

This is from someone who follows conflicts and violence has not stopped, but surged a bit. The positive vibes and the diplomatic steps within the Horn of Africa haven’t helped internally. As the sins of the past and the seemingly revenge of the Oromo’s has happen too.

This was also proven further in the report from ACLED: “There has been a marked increase in intercommunal violence since April 2018, concentrated largely in Oromia, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ (SNNP) Region, and Amhara. Between April and October 2018, there were 43 violent interactions between communal militias (an increase of over 168%); over that time period, such intercommunal violence accounted for 10% of the overall number of violent events. Violent events between communal militias and civilians have also been on the rise since Abiy took office, rising from 1% of events in the six month period prior to Abiy’s swearing in to 5%.The prevalence of this violence suggests that local flashpoints over access to resources and mobilization around ethnic lines is on the rise since Abiy took office. Mobilization along ethnic lines during this period of political change may be a result of the Ethiopian government’s system of ethno-federal regionalism; emphasizing ethnic identity may be a way for ethnic groups and ethno-regional politicians to signal their strength and jockey for influence” (ACLED – ‘CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN PROTESTS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE PM ABIY’S ETHIOPIA’ 13.10.2018).

We should really worry with the risign communal militias that has sky-rocketed, this has happen in the Ogaden Region or Somali Region. The Oromo and Queero and Liyu Police has really taken it in their own hands and held the ethnic Somali people down. This is worrying, as the Djibouti government even became worried about the escalated violence in the region, but there have been nothing from Villa Somalia on the matter. Maybe, because the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) is part of AMSIOM.

I am worried about this and the consequences, as the Oromo are doing what the Tigray did to them. But instead of retaliating, they are acting supreme elsewhere. Amhara is also played around with, as the former terrorist organizations are now allowed to return from Eritrea, as the peace between the neighbors are making it more possible to work together. This being Ginabot 7 and Oromo Liberation Front. These will also add possible local conflicts and surge mobilization, which is now combined with the return of other heroes. Could either create a better regime or more hostility, which have already seen.

These numbers are really worrying. This is not positive news, also the grand amount of fatal deaths during protest isn’t winding down, but become worse.

PM Abiy has work to do and clearly change even more within the ethical borderlines, but also the need for dialogue. This dialogue has to happen internally, PM Abiy have been busy with the neighbors, but not within region since he quit his national tour early in his tenure. 

Should we worry if this persist or change, as the numbers of mobilization and fatalities, are showing signs of not hope, but of death. The EPRDF and the PM needs to focus on what the internal issues and the concerns of these numbers. However, we should also know these numbers of fatalities are people, not just mere statistics. That is why the PM should take action and not see the surge, but a healthy decline. As the public should worry about this too. Since the appointment of the PM gave us much hope, but the reality of his reign isn’t as positive as it could have been. Peace.

Somalia’s destiny lies in the hands of the people, highlights outgoing UN envoy (14.09.2018)

Despite remarkable achievements in Somalia in the recent past, structural challenges remain and continue to undermine the country’s security and political stability, the United Nations envoy for the country has warned.

DAKAR, Senegal, September 14, 2018 – Briefing the Security Council for the last time in his capacity as UN Special Representative for Somalia, Michael Keating called on all Somalis to draw strength from the positive transformations going on inside the country and work collectively for the common good.

“The future of Somalia is in the hands of the Somalis,” he declared.

In particular, Mr. Keating – who also heads the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) – urged unity among political leaders.

“The more [they] show unity, the greater the opportunity, and the responsibility, of international partners to invest in all parts of the country and its leadership,” he said.

In his remarks, Mr. Keating highlighted four key concerns the country’s leaders need to address, and issues that the international community should keep focusing on.

These include the threat posed by the Al Shabaab and other extremist groups; the risk of political differences overshadowing progress in legislative, reform and security areas; fragmentation within the international community; and the danger of a humanitarian “catastrophe”, especially with most of the population already living in precarious circumstances due to climate change and other vulnerabilities.

“Future crises will result from the combination of climate related shocks; armed conflict provoked by Al Shabaab and unresolved grievances; competition over natural resources; and systemic marginalization of certain groups,” warned Mr. Keating. He underscored the need to reduce the vulnerability faced by ordinary Somalis, through job creation and smart investments that safeguard natural resources and help unlock the enormous economic potential of the country.

Besides political will, Mr. Keating underscored, success will depend on leaders from the political, business and traditional spheres “working together for the common good, leveraging the country’s potential wealth to transform prospects for people – especially the young.”

On 1 October, Nicholas Haysom will replace Mr. Keating as the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and the head of UNSOM. Mr. Keating was appointed the top UN official in the Horn of Africa nation in November 2015.

Women have brought ‘important voices’ to Somali politics

Alongside Mr. Keating, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, the Executive Director of the UN gender equality and empowerment agency for women and girls (UN Women) highlighted the “once-in-a-generation opportunity” that Somalia currently has to establish lasting peace, and gender equality.

She commended the nation for improving representation of women in public office, illustrated by the “jump” in women’s representation in parliamentary elections from 14 to nearly 25 per cent of seats in the most recent elections.

This progress, she underscored, has brought many “important voices” to Somali politics.

She said it had brought to the centre “the fight to end child marriage, end female genital mutilation (FGM), and change laws that discriminate against women,” noting that the participation of women will be further boosted if more leaders, especially clan leaders, embrace gender equality and support women.

She also called on the international community and the Security Council to support Somalia’s federal and provincial authorities, advance gender equality, act strongly against sexual and gender-based violence, advocate for meaningful participation and recognition of women in all sectors, and support women’s groups in the country.

“Women’s organizations in Somalia are organized. They are dedicated to their country: they are activists, advocates, entrepreneurs, professionals, and patriots,” said Ms. Mlambo-Ngcuka, noting that as the country prepares to confront the challenges in the days ahead, “women will make the difference.”

Statement of the Chairperson of the Commission on the Horn of Africa (07.09.2018)

Joint Declaration on Comprehensive Cooperation Between Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea (06.09.2018)

Considering that the peoples of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea share close ties of geography, history, culture and religion as well as vital common interests;

Respecting each other’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity;

Desiring to bolster their historical ties to achieve their lofty objectives;

The Governments of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea have reached the following agreement that reflects the aspirations of their peoples:-

1. The three countries shall foster comprehensive cooperation that advances the goals of their peoples.

2. The three countries shall build close political, economic, social, cultural and security ties.

3. The three countries shall work in coordination to promote regional peace and security.

4. The three governments hereby establish a Joint High-Level Committee to coordinate their efforts in the framework of this Joint Declaration.

Done in Asmara, September 5, 2018

For the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed

For the Federal Republic of Somalia

President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed

For the State of Eritrea

President Isaias Afwerki

Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia to hold trilateral Talks on Economic Integration (05.09.2018)

President Farmajo, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki are scheduled to meet in Asmara on 6th and 7th September.

MOGADISHU, Somalia, September 5, 2018 – Mogadishu 5th September 2018; The president of the Federal Republic of Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo is leading efforts to consolidate gains made at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation by facilitating the prospect of a tripartite agreement on economic Integration between the countries of the Horn.

President Farmajo, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki are scheduled to meet in Asmara on 6th and 7th September to hold discussions on strengthening the economic and security stability of the region.

The leaders would also discuss measures to end all political and social conflicts between the countries of the horn to promote harmony and a happy coexistence between neighbors of the horn.

President Farmajo’s vision is to promote free trade flow, and a mutual economic cooperation between all the countries of the Horn of Africa.

Somalia seeks to play a key role in economic and social integration of the Horn of Africa to foster trade and investment, and to improve connectivity between the people and businesses of the Horn.

In Beijing, Somalia signed the Belt and Road Initiative that enhances connectivity and promotes economic development, and an agreement on improving Economic and Technical Cooperation between China and Somalia.

Somalia’s ambition to take the lead in facilitating a robust Horn of Africa trade bloc would foster stronger economic stability and development for the Horn nations.

Somalia: Food security improving but recovery remains fragile (02.09.2018)