The Tigray region that has been at various stages of War since November 2020. The region that has been besieged and gotten shunned by the Federal Government. The region is yet again under fire. The missiles and tanks is returning in the name of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF). These are being used to attack the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) positions and it’s been reported to happen this week. A clear breach of the “Humanitarian Truce” and it shows that it wasn’t real.
After Cessation of Hostilities has been breached by ENDF, as the army has now attacked Tigray Defence Forces position around Dedebit in Western Tigray. Western Tigray which for two years has been “annexed” or occupied by the Tripartite Alliance. This alliance is the ENDF, Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” and Eritrean Defence Force (EDF). Now, the ENDF has returned and coming with mechanical divisions to restart the War.
The talks and diplomacy has like suspected only been to buy time and be able to regroup for a new offensive against the TDF. That’s the plan of the “Humanitarian Truce” and the government has since then gotten funding and time to buy more ammunition. Therefore, the new offensive and continuation of the “Law Enforcement Operation” can cease to continue.
The Tigray region is already war-torn, disconnected from the world for two years. Utilities haven’t been connected for two years either. There is a famine and a humanitarian disaster already in the making, as the humanitarian assistance has only come in small convoys and never to levels of what the people actually needed. They only got small percentages of what they need and this is why the basic necessities and lack thereof is well documented. This is also in regard to fertilizers, fuel and medicines. So, that is not only food, but what helps to produce more food for the next season. Therefore, this has been a planned and a staged scenario, which is so grim.
Now, as the humanitarian disaster of epic proportion is happening. The army is returning and with fire. The war is most likely on and the ENDF was just waiting to be regrouped for return to Tigray. This is why we should expect more bloodshed, collective punishment and a total war. Expect several of fronts to be attacked, the allies of Addis Ababa will join along. That being Asmara and Bahir Dar as well.
The Tripartite Alliance is ready and prepared. To think otherwise is naive. They will try to annihilate the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and anyone who can possibly associate with the party. They are going after the region and wants it suffer for not consolidating power to the Prime Minister and his party, the Prosperity Party. That’s the PEACE that Abiy offers and this is why he has established a “Ministry of Peace” and a “Peace Committee”. These are just made to look like peace, while the PM and his government wages war. That’s why the Ministry has in past fundraised for the army in the name of “peace”.
We should expect war and more conflict. That’s what’s on the horizon. The “Humanitarian Truce” was hallow and was a lie. Just like so many other of the blatant acts of the PM. He only did it buy time and weapons. The PM didn’t do it out of mercy or concern for the population. No, he did it to get more ammunition, equipment and ability to wage war.
There will only be armed tyranny from now. There will only be more death and more horrific acts done in the name of “rule of law” and “democracy”. Expect stories to shatter your heart, mind and soul. That’s what’s ahead, as devastating as the news of famine and starvation is… and in the mix of that comes a full-scale war.
I have stated before and state it again, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali isn’t a man of peace, but a warlord. His a man of war and not peace. That is proven and it shows everywhere he goes. Peace.
“We are hearing reports that a Ship is on its way to Ethiopia carrying Wheat, and that famine is looming. All this is false information aimed at pre-emptively sabotaging the credibility of our Wheat export plans” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (14.08.2022).
“The wheat will go to WFP’s operations in #Ethiopia. It’s one of many areas around the world where the near-complete halt of Ukrainian grain & food on the global market has made life even harder” (Abiy, 14.08.2022).
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed Ali is claiming and down-talking yet again humanitarian aid. It isn’t many months ago when he spoke ill of “wheat-aid”. Therefore, this is one of his pet-pees and issues he wants to settle. The PM can want to be self-sufficient and be able to produce enough food for the Republic. There is nothing wrong in that and everyone should strive on it.
“If we prevent wheat aid from entering Ethiopia, 70% of our problems will be solved. Ethiopia main problem is aid wheat. Together with aid wheat diseases and many other problems comes with. Stopping aid wheat means resolving most of our problems. After stopping aid wheat, we can create touristic areas. For example, can build a cafeterias in this place like we saw earlier today. Tourists go to Cape Town and South France. In our case. It’s sitting idle” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (October 2021).
However, in 2022 and at this very time… the United Nations or Humanitarian Organizations aren’t undermining the authorities or the Prosperity Party for that matter. No, they are just coming with aide to the ones in need, which isn’t only in the Tigray region that has been besieged for months. No, they have to go Somali (Ogaden) region, parts of Oromia region and Afar region too. There are so many people who needs help across the Republic.
OCHA reported it like this ten days ago: “The overall humanitarian situation in Ethiopia has significantly deteriorated in 2022 leading to increased humanitarian needs across the country due to ongoing conflict and violence, and climatic shocks such as the prolonged drought. More than 20 million people are to be targeted for humanitarian assistance and protection this year. Nearly three quarters of them are women and children” (OCHA, 05.08.2022).
There are millions of people who needs it now. Yes, there are fields that grows wheat in Ethiopia. However, that is clearly not sustainable or able to cope with the needs of the Republic. That farmers and the Ethiopian agriculture is able to produce and expand their production is fine. Nevertheless, that doesn’t solve the crisis or the famines which are occurring.
These famines aren’t created to undermine or create distress for the Prime Minister. No, they are either happening because of the policies of the Republic of blocking humanitarian aide to the Northern Ethiopia, in general to the Tigray Region, or it’s happening because of prolonged drought and climate, which no one controls. Even if the Prime Minister has promised technology to create rain the other year. Clearly, buying drones and bullets for his war has been more important to his whole reign.
We are seeing the attitude and the charisma of a self-absorbed man. Who thinks he can solve everything on his own. A man who don’t want interference and want to be self-sufficient, but doesn’t have the tools or ability to see the struggles now. Maybe the years in the Palace in Addis Ababa has made him forget about the plights of the commoner. Because they are struggling from the tip of Ogaden to the end of Tigray. He clearly don’t mind their issues and think the imported wheat is there to destroy his vision.
However, the wheat imports is only to save the lives of civilians within his Republic. He should be happy it is coming. Nevertheless, that’s too much to ask for a man who clearly don’t value those lives or the suffering of the citizens as a whole. Peace.
“Armed militia from the Afar region of Ethiopia attacked the town of Andhufo killing 20 civilians on Sunday. This event took place on 08/14/2022 at the following location: Afar Region, Ethiopia” (Geopolitical Report – ‘Afar region militia kill 20 civilians in Andhufo’ 14.08.2022).
“Great news – the last occupied Issa Somali town, Unda Fo’o in Afar just fallen to Afar!! – the Awash Road from Samara now opens for the first time in 3 years!! At last Afar/ truck drivers can live without the terror of Issa raiding and roadside contraband is over” (Afar APDA, 12.08.2022).
This week the Issa-Somali Militia and it’s also reported from other sources that Liyu Police of the Somali (Ogaden) Region has attacked the Afar region. It is sadly not new and the Issa-Somali militia has attacked Afar before and seemingly continue to do so.
What is striking this week is that parts of the reports said the skirmishes was happening in the Sitti Zone of the Somali (Ogaden) region. While in reality these attacks was in Gabi or Zone 3 of the Afar region. It is tragic that people are selling the annexation and the planned efforts of taking territories from Afar. That’s why they are trying to distort old deals and agreements to besiege them with force.
The Issa-Somali militia got support from Djibouti and the authorities there. While we cannot today be sure of it the leadership or the leaders in Somali (Ogaden) region is also involved. We know that the Vice-President of Ogaden has previously been involved in sponsoring conflict. So, we don’t know if this is the case this time.
We can certainly be sure that the Afar Pastoralist and the Afar Regional Special Forces are behind the defence and the reason why the Issa-Somali militia didn’t get further into the territory. While it is really tragic that this is occurring and the amounts of lives lost.
There are reports that in Gawani town in Zone 3. That the forces are on high alert, as they are expecting counter attacks from the Issa Somali. This is what is reported from the area today.
This means we should sadly expect more the coming days. Most likely not yet peace, but more defensive operations for the Afar forces. Peace.