“The Shene group that has escaped from the stick that the security forces use is causing danger to the citizens of West Wollega. In Oromia region, people found in Qelem Wollega zone have been killed. We are saddened by the suffering that happened to our citizens, we will follow this terrorist group to the end and remove it from our people. Shane Dulla group who escaped from security forces are fleeing from Wollega Dhiya people. The last thing has been done on the citizens of Oromia region, Qellem Wollega. We will remove this terrorist group with our people till the end” (Abiy Ahmed Ali, 04.07.2022).
It is tragic and sad, but at the same time very interesting how things are moving. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and Oromia Regional Special Forces are currently operating in the final offensive against the Oromo Liberation Army/Front (OLA/OLF) which they nickname “Shane”. However, this militia had officially lost the territories of which the state claims or alleged behind the massacre there. That’s weird and seems inaccurate. Unless, the state lied about having control 3 days before…
The ENDF and allies was boosting and used the Ethiopian Government Communications Services to spread the statement of the takeover of the territories in the Oromia region. The OLF/OLA could easily have retreated and given it up. As they tend to stretch their operations and later return to combat elsewhere. Therefore, it it likely that the OLF/OLA could cease the control and give way to a far superior organization. Which is now using all their manpower and brigades to combat them. We know the state wants to end the OLF/OLA in Oromia. That’s why the Federal Government promised a “Final Offensive”.
In that regard, the BBC report on the area seems plausible:
“The government announced that the districts in western Oromia are under the control of the security forces. The woredas in Kelem Welega, West Welega, & Horo Gudru Welega Zones have come under the full control of the security forces, the government said “This was stated in a statement issued by the Minister of Government Communication Services, Legesse Tulu, on June 23, 2014 regarding the current peace and security of the country. He said the area was controlled by the Oromo Liberation Army (WBO), a joint operation by the Defense Forces, the Federal Police, the Oromia Special Forces and the militia. He also said that several members of the terrorist group, which claimed responsibility for the massacre in Tole Kebele, Gimbi Woreda, West Welega, were also killed during the operation” (BBC, 30.06.2022).
Death, massacres and mass-murders follows where-ever the National Army shows up. Isn’t that convenient to then blame the enemies of the state after the fact? Especially, when you and your government claimed victory and takeover of the territories. So, suddenly after you had full control a massacre killing civilian happened an-mass. It is tragic that these sorts of acts get pinned on others.
Its not shocking that the Federal Government, the leaders of Addis Ababa would do this or any sort of thing. They are currently busy blaming the victims elsewhere too. As everyone is terrorists and enemies of the state. That’s why the state is doing whatever it can to vilify the Tigrayan people and the region. As it is facing starvation, famine and genocide, which has been state sponsored too. So, when a government can do that. It can easily sponsor a massacre elsewhere too.
I am very doubtful of the honest and truth in the words of Abiy. Who comes with claims of the OLA/OLF days after the government security forces took control of the area. The massacre wasn’t found with mass-graves from when the Oromo militia had held control. No, the massacre happened while the state had taken over control. Which makes it possible that the state is behind it and with their security forces. Because, why shouldn’t they? They did takeover the area and the territories?
That’s why there is a lie here and I believe Abiy is lying. Because, his a liar and a man who tends to speak plenty of untruths. His not the sort of fella that is trustworthy or genuine. No, he lies for his own benefit and comes with harsh warning against his enemies. His a proper warlord that way and his proud of it too. That’s why he wears fatigues and is proud of being a man of the army.
This is why I have a gut feeling. Sensing the armed forces of the state has sanctioned and sponsored the massacre. They have the option and the will to do so. Because, there wasn’t a massacre and a bloodshed before the state’s own armed forces took over. Peace.
There was three more pages of the deceased in the report from GPE, which I am not publishing. Because, I am not comfortable publishing such explicit and deceased bodies on my page. Peace.
“The two peoples of Sudan and Ethiopia are brothers. Undoubtedly, there are many problems between Sudan and Ethiopia. We must intensify and cooperate in confronting and solving these dilemmas. There are many who want us to slip into each other’s fight. But these parties – whether they are governments or others – will not reap any benefit from fuelling strife between our two peoples, for us, our choice is peace between our two peoples, and our two brotherly countries. Our choice is for mutual trust to prevail between us. There should not be confrontations between us, because of external pressures” (…) “We have to control our selves; And to be restrained. This is for the sake of our common interests and the principles of good neighborliness. There should be no enmities between us, We have all respect for the brotherly Sudanese people. We believe that Sudan and Ethiopia are capable of solving all the problems and difficulties they face in the spirit of lasting brotherhood and good neighborliness” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali message to Sudan (29.06.2022).
This trick could have worked after he signed the secret agreement and pact with Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki. Now in 2022 the wiggle room or believing in the words of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has worn thin. These sorts of quotes and statements seems like a smokescreen and not the real deal. Not anymore because of the “red terror” and acts of the past year.
That PM Abiy acts of talks and dialogue between neighbours could have seen as sincere. However, after the skirmishes last year. At that time he didn’t really commit and give it any real time. He just gave the Sudanese PM a few hours before he went on to another project. The PM didn’t seem interested to talk or negotiate. It seemed like it bothered and he was disinterested in the Sudanese dignitary and hold proper talks with him.
That’s why we know he don’t want any interference from IGAD or the AU. We know Abiy want a solo-mission and only goodwill. Even if his army started it and they did execute 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them. This is why the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) retaliated and went on to attack certain parts of the El-Fashaqa region. Where the to nations has staked their claim over the territories. As the Amhara settles was evicted and banished from a settlement as well.
So, when Abiy speaks of brotherhood it seems insincere now. The same is the talks of dialogue. I should wish it was true. The PM has however been very reluctant and not engaged in these things. It doesn’t help that he says “external pressures” and that they are are “capable of solving all problems”. When his army and his allies is confronting, use violence and targeting land on Sudanese territory.
Yes, it would have been nice to see Demeke Mekonnen, Abiy Ahmed Ali, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo aka Hemeti and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in a neutral space and with a trustworthy third party negotiators. Nevertheless, we know that is not on the cards and neither anyone who is inviting it. That’s why we shouldn’t expect an Ethiopian or a Sudanese delegation to a conference or meeting to hash out their differences.
That the AU calls for “restraint” is a natural response, as the tensions has escalated. This is all natural how the things has transpired. Abiy isn’t an honest actor and I cannot believe his words now. The Office of the Prime Minister and himself needs to do more.
This time around he needs to talk for hours and possibly days. Since, the latest executions and escalations is just furthering the actions of skirmishes of last year. Therefore, this time it’s a time for a sit-down and address the border point. Also, stop the movement of troops across it. That’s how the battles and deaths are appearing. Both parties needs to talk. This has been an escalation after the Tripartite alliance went into the Tigray Region in November 2020. Where they have gone into Sudan too.
That’s why the PM Abiy has to do more than dropping a flattering statement with words he doesn’t believing in. This isn’t enough. Peace.
“Sudan’s military retakes complete control of Fashaqa Al-Kubra, after driving Ethiopia’s army from Brekht settlement during two-day fighting. Sudanese warplanes have taken part in the offensive. Dozens of ENDF military vehicles have been destroyed – local media” (Somali Guardian, 28.06.2022).
This two day battle in the heavily contested Al-Fashqa (El-Fashaga) region comes after the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) executed 7 Sudanese soldiers. Both nations has fought over the territory for some time.
In the Brekht or Bereket settlement Amhara settlers has been now forcefully evicted by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That is 50km inside the Sudanese territory. So, things are changing and the Sudanese authorities are retaliating towards the Ethiopian neighbours.
These latest news aren’t only worrying. However, we knew the executions of the 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them would create tensions. Now we are seeing the Sudanese react with violence and defending their territories.
We could worry about the refugees and the ones who has fled from Ethiopia into Sudan after the start of the “Law Enforcement Operation” in Tigray region. Since the start of the warfare in the region. There been skirmishes of the tripartite alliance within the Al-Fashqa region inside Sudan. The SAF has posted and strengthened their border post because of it.
Now, they have taken it further and is proving a point. Well, that’s not shocking when the Ethiopian army is straight up executing their soldiers after kidnapping them. It is like asking for it. We just have to hope the SAF doesn’t clash even further or push onto Ethiopian soil.
There is a need for talks, but we know how condescending Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali was towards former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. So, time will tell if he acts differently towards the President and the Deputy of the Sovereign Council. However, I wouldn’t count on it. Abiy isn’t that kind and would only drop a “brotherly” statement if he feels his losing or lacking results for his cause.
Time will tell how this goes… but this is not looking good and the parties needs to resolve the differences. Before it escalates into a full-blown war. Peace.