All the lost boys of the National Super Alliance (NASA) and Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) has now found a new home. The former Deputies of these coalition have now signed to a new deal. This time they have all left “Baba” or Raila Odinga. Who was the main opposition leader in the two previous elections and the Presidential Candidate for NASA and CORD coalitions.
Now, Moses Wetan’gula, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi all have found a new home with the main candidate Gideon Moi. This coalition is named One Kenya Coalition. These are all former KANU people who is going back home in a way. They have been around and created their own parties, but is now sort of going “home. These Deputies now have Moi instead of Odinga. That is the reality of it all.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is claiming to seek other coalitions today. That is not shocking, as it is close connected to Jubilee with the handshake. While the Deputy President William Ruto have finally revealed that his supporting United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Wheelbarrow Movement. This is showing the possible big challenges ahead.
It wouldn’t be shocking if Ruto was a Presidential Candidate against Moi. The wildcard here is Odinga and what he chooses to do. KANU have already signed a deal with Jubilee. The same has Kalonzo done and that made him a Special Envoy. While Mudavadi and Wetan’gula have been lost in the wind and haven’t had much traction after the handshake.
Kenyatta steered the opposition really wisely in his second term. In a manner to trap them in a Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) and getting a constitutional reform, which will strengthen the executive and the central government.
What is really striking, but not shocking is that the Deputies got a new home. Odinga had already gone after them recently and called them out. So, the trust between isn’t what it used to be. ODM might feel strong and vibrant. But…. they have traded all hope and only got results, if the BBI becomes some sort of success. The ODM is bound by the fate of BBI and what it does. They are connected to the second term of Kenyatta and they cannot run away from that.
That is why 2022 isn’t only Ruto and Tanga Tanga against the rest. No, it can be the triple bet with Odinga, OKA and UDA in fierce political battle. While we can wonder if Linda Katiba Movement, Ukweli Party or United Green Movement have anything to offer. The Thirdway Alliance have been totally out of whack after the 2017 elections.
This is why the trio of Moi, Ruto and Odinga seems like the big-men ahead of the polls. These seems to be the characters. Now, Moi got a boost of his candidacy with the deputies of CORD/NASA on his side. They are trying to be a team of misfits getting a new deal. We can wonder if this is the trick. The same folks has tried before, but now with a new “master”.
Odinga could seek the Jubilee support and be supported by the ones who isn’t “Tanga Tanga” in the party there. Still, that is not the same. Neither, will he find friends in the three earlier mentioned opposition parties who are all against the BBI. I doubt these have any interests to join him and with the knowledge of how he traded his stance to buy “peace” after the 2017 elections.
Now, time will only tell, but the NASA/CORD era is gone. Its a revitalized KANU time for these leaders now. They are now bolstering behind Moi and hoping the dynasties is the ticket to the promised lands.
However, they are going against someone as cunning as Ruto. Not to forget they are going against Odinga too. These two will not let go easily and will not back-down without some sort of pay-off. These two knows this and they know how to make things happen. Therefore, the time ahead of 2022 will be interesting.
Nevertheless, the race for the new CORD/NASA is gone. The OKA have eaten that one up. That ship has sailed. Now, we have to wait for the moves of the other power-brokers and how they will operate. As they want to challenge and find the strongest possible alliance. This is clear and we can only imagine.
Expect the unexpected. Moi will maybe able to get more under his wings and be even a bigger collective. God only knows. However, it seems like this is a preparation for his term in office. The elites and the dynasties is at play. That wouldn’t be shocking. Uhuru go it and now it’s Gideon’s turn. Peace.