Opinion: Abiy promises total victory again [Like he did on the 16th Nov. 2020 & 26th Nov. 2020]

The youth of Tigray is perishing like leaves. Knowing it is defeated, it is being led by one who does not have a clear vision or plan. It should surrender today to the Ethiopian National Defence Force, to the special forces, to the militias and to the people” (…) “The enemy has been defeated. We scored an unthinkable victory with the eastern command in one day… Now in the west we will repeat this victory” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (From footage released on 30th November 2021).

On the 17th November 2020 after about two weeks of conflict and civil war in the “Law Enforcement Operation”. The man high on power and brief successive victories proclaimed to the world, that the Tigray conflict was in it’s “final phase”.

The three-day deadline for the Tigray regional special forces and militia to hand themselves over to national defence forces instead of being a tool for the greedy junta has expired. Those Tigray special forces and militia who used the three-day deadline are appreciated, Since the deadline has been completed, in the coming days the final law enforcement activities will be done” (Abiy, 17.11.2020).

Now a year later on the 30th November 2021. The same man coming with similar threats. There been plenty of offensives and now a ‘counteroffensive’. The ENDF and allies has used all of their means to win the war. They have used all tactics and deployed all sinister means to gain advantage. This is everything from weaponizing humanitarian assistance, blockage of utilities, communications and whatever the Federal Government deemed fit. Therefore, the PM cannot think people will believe his stories now.

The PM did state again on the 26th November 2020 that it was the “final phase” and ending of the conflict. However, we know perfectly well that didn’t happen and the threats was useless. The PM and his allies didn’t have the knowledge or the strategic thinking to think differently. As the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) restructured and started warfare in a different manner of which the state underestimated. That is why they are on the advancing end and the ENDF is trying to regain lost territory, as it has lost 10,000 soldiers only defending the Afar region over the recent days. This is the results of the civil-war and the burden Abiy has put on his own people.

The PM is doing like he did last year asking the TDF and its allies to surrender last year in November. When the TDF and allies in encircling Addis Ababa. Why would they do it now? When they could have done it … when Mekelle was bombed and their territory was controlled by the Tripartite Alliance. Nevertheless, this PM isn’t that bright or smart to figure that one out.

He rather sounds boost-full and having it all in order. As the “survival campaign” and Nationwide State of Emergency isn’t regaining quickly enough territory or weakening his adversaries. Clearly, the TDF-OLA union has ensured the warfare to turn the tide. As they taking territory and planning joint manoeuvrers. That was a luxury the Federal Government had with ENDF, EDF, Fano and Special Forces all combating one enemy. Now this has become much more hectic and with several of Liberation Armies to beat.

The ‘counteroffensive’ and the publicity stunt of having the PM on the frontline must be a golden opportunity of the FDRE. However, it is also showing it’s weakness. As they are supposed to need the manpower of the man who should sit in the situation room and get all intelligence from the front. He should navigate together with the generals and commanders. Find the best strategy and not just look at the sky, the moon and the dust. Figuring out from which hill he should cross or what sort of trick he should pick out of his sleeve. Nevertheless, that is where we are and he thinks he can repeat itself and it will work wonders.

The fools that is joining his war and many are dying on the front. That’s why the 10,000 revelations shows what price it has cost the FDRE to regain territory in the Afar region alone. Therefore, the PM maybe needs to boost his ego and show some finesse.

Still, that is a lot too ask this late in the game. There is little wiggle room and the PM uses whatever he has at this disposal. We know the TDF-OLA alliance has hurt his prospects. We know they been able to capture lot’s of prisoners of war. That has been proven and displayed. Nevertheless, that has never ended the war.

The PM can be in public and create a lot of theatre, but everyone knows that this doesn’t win him the war. It is just prolonged and the agony continues. As the people are starving, struggling and the pain is delivered to the door-steps of even more people. This isn’t only happening in the Tigray region, which have gotten the blunt force of the state, but also in Amhara, Afar and Oromia. Where there is various degrees of suffering, because of the conflict. It all has to be addressed and the pain, suffering and the adherent needs are growing. As the state and FDRE vilifies the UN and everyone delivering “wheat aid”. Therefore, this isn’t becoming better by the day, but much worse. As we cannot know the true extent or what sort of levels of devastation in the Republic.

Time will tell… but Abiy needs new tricks and new measures. Since, re-issuing the same sort of statements. Only shows that his not winning, but slowly losing. Peace.

Ethiopia: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) President Debretsion Gebremichael letter to Antonio Guterres – Concern of the Meddling of non-African countries in the genocidal war of Ethiopia (27.11.2021)

Ethiopia: Abiy tries to emulate Debretsion Gebremichael now…

Just as the supposed Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali is at the front-lines. While sitting in the middle of the field with fancy conference-room chairs and a desk. Where he held a massive speech to the Republican Guards and other military leaders. As well, as sitting beside him was “liqe mekwas” or his body-double, which is his impersonator or the “double of the emperor”. That was very visible on one of the pictures leaked to the press.

PM Abiy copies the meeting outside and gathering people to get the vision like the Tigray have been doing. While also wearing a Tegaru scarf just like TPLF President Debretsion Gebremichael is known for doing. This is emulating and copying his enemy, but doing it without any sophistication.

The man is supposed to be on the front-line, but the chairs looks from a half-way decent hotel and they are clean too. Abiy looks like he has had a shower and been groomed for the meeting. Secondly, the “liqe mekwas” wearing a suit and tie, which wouldn’t fit on the battlefield. Unless, you are playing around and mocking the whole war from afar.

Some reports even say he was in Bishoftu at the Kurufu Resort or the Tadiyos Hotel, while the private jet the PM uses was stationed at Bishoftu Air Force base. While the PM held the meeting on the grass in-front of the forest there. However, that haven’t been verified, but he looks so fresh and so clean for being on the front-line.

The PM looks like he haven’t had dirt, dust or anything under his fingernails even. As he walks impeccably with his military fatigue and held a speech. The publicity stunt isn’t working smoothly. It isn’t making it believable. Only the cult will believe this stunt.

This is not a PR victory. Only shows how he want to be a carbon-copy of his enemies. While never ceasing to compete on all fronts. Abiy is only showing out of touch and how he thinks this will work. This is not clever, but only proving his arrogance and his hubris in the midst of war.

When you take a conference room from a hotel or a resort and station it in-front of a forest to stage that your are at the front-line. That just shows that you have lost the plot. Not only that, but you have tried to make it look like a leadership gathering like your enemies and wearing their scarf. That just shows what sort of mental game-plan the Prime Minister has at the very moment. He is just boosting his own ego. As the ‘counter-offensive’ is happening in the border-region of Afar. Since the takeover of certain towns there of late. However, nobody knows for how long this can last. Certainly, Abiy isn’t there fighting, as his to nurtured to be there now. Peace.

Ethiopia: Statement from The Alliance of Civil Society Organizations of Tigray concerning the prevailing atrocity and stop the ethnic mass arrest and evict of Tigrians from all regions of Ethiopia and Western zone of Tigray (25.11.2021)

Ethiopia: The Global Society of Tigrai Scholars (GSTS) – Denouncing Addis Ababa University’s Recent Statement and Warning to Revoke Academic Degrees of Individuals Based on their Political Opinion (28.11.2021)

Ethiopia: TDF-OLA continues to advance [towards Debre Birhan] Part II

There is more verified information from the battlefront between the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) with their allies. While they are combatting the united front of Tigray Defence Force and Oromo Liberation Army. Over the recent days there been more news and I rather wanted to collect more substantial information before I make another post about it.

Already on the 8th November 2021 I wrote the TDF-OLA allies was marching on Debre Birhan. They were planning to launch attacks towards that strategic city, which 132,7 kilo-meters away from the capital Addis Ababa.

Today, we can with certainty say the TDF-OLA have captured Shewa Robit yesterday and on the same route they have taken Debre Sina. While on another front within the Amhara region the TDF-OLA have taken Molale in North Shewa. There is also reports that they have taken Mehal Meda, the administrative center of Menz Gera Midir woreda. These are significant blows to the national army and the progressions isn’t swift, but its closing in. Both in the mountains and on the main road towards Addis Ababa.

While on the Afar region front at Kassa/Darsa Gita front the TDF haven’t been able to compete with Afar Regional Special Forces and the ENDF there. They are still at the stages of Bati and not anywhere near Mille, which some still claims and have been saying for over a week. Which is fake news and the Afar region isn’t where the TDF have been able to advance like in the Amhara region.

There is clear indications that the fronts encircling Addis Ababa is going much better. Though at a slower phase, as there was some speculations and others who nearly was ready to proclaim a quick takeover of Addis around the 10th November 2021. We are now on the 22nd November 2021.

The state isn’t doing any good and is losing territory, but they are doing it in a slow speed. It is not like the united front against the ENDF is winning without costs or without tactically planning it’s advances. This is why Addis Ababa is for the long haul and not a short term takeover. Not like it looks like at this very moment.

The most damage the ENDF and it’s allies does at the moment is with drone attacks on the front-lines and on civilians in Mekelle. However, that will not win the war. The TDF-OLA is advancing and it’s clear on many fronts now. It isn’t one place alone. The Afar front-line has been static and not moving in any clear direction. They are meeting a competent adversary there. That is very clear and this is why the TDF haven’t succeeded there for now.

This will be continued and this is far from over. The conflict that started early November 2020 will continue. There is no denying in that and the agony will be prolonged. The pain, the suffering and the hurt will linger on for decades. This war won’t be over when just the guns are silent. This war will be over when the grievances is settled and the places are rebuilt after the conflict is over. That isn’t a quick and brief fix, but rebuilding a state after war-torn battles.

Right now the TDF-OLA front is advancing and doing it strategically. Time will tell how quickly they are able to move and how fast the ENDF allies are fallling. Whatever it is, it will be bloody and until things are verified. I will await the verdict of further movement of the troops in this civil-war. Peace.

Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) – The Reign of Terror and Anarchy Under the cover of State of Emergency by the Ethiopian government must stop (22.11.2021)

Ethiopia: State Minister of Peace Dendea Aredo vilification of the USAID goes overboard…

The Prosperity Party and it’s allies are really going into conspiracy theories mode. They are making aid and humanitarian assistance into a war-effort into supporting the enemies of the state. This is the same state that has sent notices to diplomats, embassies, envoys and businesses in Addis Ababa to monitor all their communication equipment. So, that these can be registered and prove how they are using these. That shows that everyone can become criminal and the state conspires about everyone. That’s how paranoid the authorities are at this current time.

The state will prove it even further, as a minister will go after USAID, as the state his a part of has created a man-made famine and weaponized humanitarian assistance to the Tigray Region. There haven’t been a convoy coming to Tigray region for a month now and there been little to none of what the needs are. That is what the state does. The only thing his government does is either ethnic cleansing in Humera region and Western Tigray. If not they are using drones to bomb Mekelle. Therefore, this shows how vicious the regime is.

State Minister of Peace wrote this:

Fortunately, USAID is said to be leaving Ethiopia. The government’s refusal to open the Humera Corridor is the reason. According to Mrs Samantha Power, the leaving is to make the people of Ethiopia sense the force of USA! For Ethiopian patriots, this is huge opportunity! Just two important issues. One, USAID has been in Ethiopia for almost 30 years, but has changed literally nothing! Only created dependency attitude! Hence its leaving cannot negatively affect Ethiopians! In the contrary, it will motivate us to help ourselves” (Taye Dendea Aredo – ‘Bye USAID’ 21.11.2021).

Taye Dendea is a former blogger turned minister. So, he knows the written word and his written articles in defence of the government causes. Therefore, his now just pinning the “Wheat Aid” issues, which Abiy have in the past. Instead of using “wheat aid”, Aredo picks on USAID. It is not USAID fault that FDRE haven’t been developed. That is the central government and the ones in-charge over the years. To blame outside entities to give no agency to the ones in-charge. Just like Abiy have ability to do things and reform. However, he decided to go to war and it has cost him dearly. It has backfired, so now Minister like Aredo have to incriminate others. That is what they do.

The State Minister for Peace should ensure and secure the humanitarian assistance gets to the Tigray region. That way he gets to save lives and help people in dire need. However, he rather blame the USAID for the orders and the state blocking the convoys. The UN drivers and others have been targeted by his government. It says a lot, even with the knowledge of this. He still blames them.

Two, the aim of USAID has been mistakenly understood by many to be supporting the needy. Now it has become clear that USAID is trying to change regimes contrary to the will of the people! It is clearly saying “Because we feed you, we shall elect a government for you”. This is the worst insult for the people! Actually, it shows their ignorance about us! Ethiopians are not the types of people who exchange their freedom & independence for food!” (Taye Dendea Aredo – ‘Bye USAID’ 21.11.2021).

Here is the minister deliberately saying USAID plans to have regime change. They are planning to starve everyone and use the aid to destroy the regime itself. What is striking here … is that earlier the state blocked the aid and didn’t allow the aid in to the needy. Now, the USAID doesn’t want to give to the other needy. Than it is an issue and says a lot about Dendea Aredo. As he wants to save the other regions, but not the one, which have been targeted for over a year now. Amhara region and Afar region have also been hardly hit by the warfare. This is also regions where UN and USAID planned to intervene with humanitarian assistance. The US already donated extra for the efforts this year to USAID to help the additional ones who are suffering. Therefore, wherever the Minister of State is having his sources. It is clearly not in the public channels of information.

The FDRE and PP have decided to go rogue. It isn’t the USAID in this instance. The USAID have programs called OTI and they should cease to have them. These are the questionable that mentions “transition” and used the CIA to change governments in favour of the Washington DC agenda. However, in the case of Ethiopia in 2021. The problems, the structures and the internal conflict has spiralled out of control for PP, because it gambled on the weakness of its enemies. A gamble it is losing. It got nothing with OTI or USAID. Neither is it USAID fault that the UN organizations cannot deliver humanitarian assistance within Ethiopia. That is all Addis Ababa would is blocking and stopping them from operating.

This is why you know the State Minister of Peace is lying and conniving. This is to make the USAID a villain. Yes, the USAID and CIA has a shady history. However, right now… the innocent are dying just so Abiy and his allies could prove a point. The same government that arrests people for their ethnic background as well. So… this man of peace is doing this and still the problem is USAID. That says it all and how pathetic things have become. You can even wonder what Abiy was thinking to appoint a man like this. However, that just shows his crowd and what sort of people he has surrounding him. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Global Society of Tigrai Scholars (GSTS) – An Urgent Call for Strong Action to Prevent Further Atrocities in Ethiopia (20.11.2021)

Ethiopia: Tigray External Affairs Office – Press Statement on the need to expedite distribution of humanitarian Aid (19.11.2021)

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