The Battle for the Ugandan oil to the Coast; As the Tanzanian and the Kenyan suitors try to bait Mzee

There is the time and day where the President Museveni walks into Tanzania speaks to the new President Magefuli and promise more money for sustainable pipeline through Tanzania down to the coast. Later in the month he travels to Nairobi and meet President Kenyatta, and promises to ship the oil in pipelines through Kenya down to the Coast.

As both Big-Men do their bidding and promises quality lines in safe pastures with clean operations and good relationship between the countries and their businesses. While Tanzania was first in this time around, the Kenyan counterparts would not be worse.

The Ugandan Government have gone back-and-fourth promised Kenyan government before and made plans fitting the Kenyan perspective, so early in March after the general Election, the President met with President Magufuli seemed to be a grand deal, as the Tanzanian said they could start with building as early as August 2016 if the Ugandan Gov. was ready for it.

Now today it seemed as the Ugandan government have gone away from the Tanzanian agreement from early in month. As the Bunyoro oil fields will build pipelines from there down to Kenyan coast. A gentleman’s agreement between Uhuru and Yoweri, as they have worked together during election time, with funds and that President Museveni wants to give something back and show loyalty to the Kenyan President.

Tanzania and Uganda had even signed a framework agreement for the crude pipeline on the 12^th of October in 2015. That seemed just to be a plan and not official document as the President of Uganda, seem now to be keen to repay his fellow mate in Kenya.

We never know is if this an reaction the EAC Inter-Burundian Dialogue of Peace between the Burundian stakeholders where President Museveni has lost his position as the opposition in Burundi claimed he was biased towards President Nkurunziza and wanted somebody else, as the African Union and EAC let former Tanzanian President Mpaka take the key role, as the mediation will be led by him, not the Ugandan President. That must sting a bit to man who wants to be the grand King of East Africa and overrule all estates and areas at all cost. That might be why they scrapped the agreement with Tanzania when it comes to the Pipeline.

This here will be proof of who wants to be the cadre for the monies that Ugandan President could bring and how far they will go to eat from his hands. As the President plays the field on both home-grounds and hope to gain the most for himself for as little as possible, while serving loyalty to the ones he picks. The partly agreement that was written during last quarter of 2015 seems too premature, as the joint statement today assume that the Kenyan government takes the last straw. Especially with the knowledge of the funding of President Museveni campaign parts of those funds to his war-chest came from the mountains of Kenya and not from Tanzania.

Because a man like President Museveni is more about his own will than the best for the oil or the best for the companies involved, because he want to be sure that the decision is benefitting him and his loyal cadres. Not anybody else, therefore he plays with Tanzanian and Kenyan officials until he gets the best deal for him, even if that strands the already made agreement with Tanzania, as the Kenyan suitors want to make sure that he gets the sugar and the tea he needs to sign a joint deal with them, even keep the Migingo island, as the money from pipeline can bring wealth and create jobs in Kenya, more than a few fishes and stones in the middle of lake. Peace.   

The adventures towards the polls 18th February; how the last days might go

We are in time and days where the government will be questioned for all their actions and all their misbehaviour towards its citizens. Not anymore that it is some foreign NGOs who complain first, no it’s public and opposition that discuss it in viral formats online. That makes the government and its regime look weak since they can’t spin those stories.

It is truly special times in the Pearl of Africa, voter tourism will be the new word of 2016 unless Mun G or Radio & Weasel makes up a new word for catching babes in Kabalagala. Until then remember the magic word of VOTER TOURISM. If you don’t know what that is about, that is about Mzee, the ruling president of 30 years who wants to have big crowds, but not pulling them. So to get that he pays attendance, gives them food and t-shirts, pay for rental of buses and get them to the campaign venues. Just like certain corporations does with foreigners when they travel in packs to National Parks to see the wild animals, they get that while the local public get to hear the recycled pledges of the old man with the hat. And for a free t-shirt, food and transport, it might be worth it, to listen to the old man for two hours… and that ladies and gentleman is Voter Tourism. Ferrying of voters and ferrying of crowds. A beautiful industry co-owned and run by the ruling NRM Campaign machine and Mike Sebalu. He must be so proud.

Other activity that doesn’t stop during these elections times is either the blatant attack on media and journalist. Like throwing cameras, shooting them, banishing them, getting them to delete pictures and get media houses to shun campaigns or campaign trails. The NRM have been vocal against radio stations for hosting Dr. Kizza Besigye and Mbabazi have seen their issues with Radio stations. NTV has also had issues early for not showing favourable pictures from the campaign. They we’re even detained together with Daily Monitor at some point. Now the barrier has been broken and the NTV cannot follow the campaign trail of Mzee anymore. Also if Mbabazi is at a radio stations like in Karamoja he couldn’t attend the radio station, other places they have shut of the transmitter after the airing of Mbabazi. The media and journalist have had hard treatment and been costly to follow the campaign trail, with the ones being in the middle of melee like the journalist covering the first planned campaign rally for Erias Lukwago in Kampala was actually shot, but not killed. There been violence in Northern region against Mbabazi and Besigye convoys as they have also hit against media. I assume that this will not stop without a big bang, like the Ntungamo clashes. It has be in those levels if there will be a total shut down.

Well, when we speak of violence we do not speak about specialized in failure like Arsene Wenger, sorry, I am not supposed to speak about football, and the man who said that was sacked for the second time in that club, so Mourinho is really the special one or the sacked one. Let me get back on the campaign trail. Violence isn’t coming from one man or one party. It usual contributed to the acts of the Police who interfere as NRM Police force, and not a political partisan unit, that was even seen in the primaries in Northern Region where fully uniformed police officer voted. So there traits are there and the IGP Kayihura was on second delegates conference in Kololo to vote for Mzee sole candidacy project, as he does, he just follows orders.

The violence of Ntungamo is the epitome of the violence during the campaign trail. There been violence pre-campaign trail when the opposition tried to hold meetings and get delegates to come forward as the police couldn’t accept this. They went fully fledge armoured with tear-gas and guns against people with not even a blade. As they we’re petty criminals instead of bank-thieves. The irony of that is that certain Police has during the campaign trail actually robbed a bank and is now jailed by the government. So there been actions from certain police and police interference into politics. Just like before the presidential campaign trail when IGP Kayihura told the world about the journalistic integrity, this was before his men was undressing opposition woman on the way to Rukungiri. Well, the Police have interfered though silent before Papal visit. It was so scary peace, a unusual peace. Now that the Pope is only sharing the #VoteSevo poster on some roundabouts around in the country; the police have after he left started with ordinary actions towards anybody else then NRM. We can see that they jails people for talking about partial voting, human rights activist for talking about human rights in up-country, detain people for pinning over NRM posters, while the Police help pinning up NRM posters, the police tear-gas late venues, they shut down hospitals for opposition leaders to see, the schools guarded, so guarded that the police stations or post are empty when the Mbabazi or Besigye is in the area. The proud police is busy containing the elements of opposition and even majors are shutting down opposition office in districts! The Police and army are busy being loyal to the NRM-Regime.

While this is happening the opposition have been busy at the #UGDebate16 while Mzee was moving his mouth and brain in the districts, because he couldn’t discuss his policies or be questioned by either TV moderator or fellow Presidential Candidate, that is because Mzee is Carte blanche from those events, even if it is the first of its kind in Uganda. That is why Mbabazi was sounding like NRM spokesman. Something that has continued ever since for some strange reason!

Mbabazi is curious pickle in the mix right now. He is neither nakati nor posho. He seems to want to be both at the same time. He can’t decide on the matter. Mbabazi is running as independent candidate with an independent mandate, in a independent party in a an independent coalition called the Democratic Coalition. The one coalition where Uganda People’s Congress went out off, and also Forum for Democratic Change went out of when Amama Mbabazi became their joint Presidential Candidate; the independent candidate Amama Mababazi; who still sees himself as part of NRM and as a NRM member is an independent presidential candidate. That is hard matrix of thought and also hard equation, even a PHD in math can’t get the numbers to be correct. There is a mix of check and balance that doesn’t add up. Mbabazi is political schizophrenic and can’t be both NRM and Opposition, though he struggles with that… Seems like he want to be friend of Mzee still, even if his friend Dr. Ruhakana Ruganda has taken over his place in NRM-Regime, that must be sad sight.

The other piece of hardships is the accidents of Go-Forward convoy, the deflections of his MPs and candidates, the little piece of men who turns over to him. The way it seems to many NRM moles in the Go-Forward camp, while he has been trying to capture big-fish from NRM without succeeding. Even if certain members leave in the villages there is many big-men and Woman MPs who has left his fold and regretting standing by him on nominations day. Something that hasn’t happen in the same fashion for Dr. Kizza Besigye during the campaign trail; the trying of fetching the NRM Primaries losers; who also was already MPs and Ministers proved to be meagre failure for the Go-Forward. So that he still get crowds and people behind him is good, but not in the extent of Besigye.

NRM have continued to trail and travel around the country. With their Voter Tourism, paying people to show up and using government institutions and facilities, also travel methods to show the beauty of their campaign. NRM have also used a fortune on the campaign compared to the opposition. The report that came in January showed the massive amount of war-chest that the President has. Hiring also and paying in towns that they didn’t have rallies so that the boda-boda drivers and other local’s transporters would be able to be used by Go-Forward or FDC in the area.

Fear-mongering rhetoric comes from the NRM-regime and their cronies, not only Mzee, but their spokesmen and loyal party officials. That is either Police or Secretary General, even members and former members, talking coup d’état or vote rigging. Even shooting and killing the opposition if they feel the election was stolen away from them. IGP Kayihura wanting to arm his Crime Preventers to secure the NRM-Regime, while one of the Generals says to the media that he will not turn down and give away power if they lose the elections. Proves that the fear they are spreading to the public is staggering. Mzee has told for long he is the only one who create and keep peace within the army and to the public, Mzee has said he still isn’t done with his project; the one is his been doing for 30 years. While this is doing so the Police and Electoral Commission will go after the FDC for using the Defiance, while the Police are detaining and blocking them from travelling on while they are campaigning. So it is some kind of justice happening, but only against opposition, while supporting NRM. Who knew?

NRM has been campaigning under the #VoteSevo or #SteadyProgress, while the Opposition has gone after this ones at every turn, especially when showing the schools and other government institutions who has deteriorating during his three decade tenure. Like Aswa bridges and Abim Hospital, that has been the epitome of the neglect of the government to serve the people. While NRM have come with the same pledges and same kind of attitude as they have done in two last campaigns. So people are tired of it, even in the place called Isigniro the people was so tired that they left in the middle of the speech of Mzee, that must hurt him, the ones left behind was crime preventers and paid crowd, the locals left the venue when they heard enough of the same kind of empty promises. As the rest of public is, not everybody, but a big bunch seems to be; since the crowds for Besigye isn’t going down and Mbabazi get decent crowds, and the two other ones doesn’t pay them to attend or use the tool called: Voter Tourism.

The initial scare is the coming rigging and the partiality of the Electoral Commission as the chief got a heavy pay check to stay as boss. Loyalty pays when it comes to Eng. Dr. Badru M. Kiggundu. He has gotten ballot-papers from South Africa, biometric-machines and promised to have enough people to make impartial voting process happen. As well as COMESA and the EU have sent monitors, the Commonwealth was monitoring the last election, not that; that made a difference. It was more we can now show after the rigging that the election was filled with malfunctions during counting, fraud and also buying voters as they did in the General Election 2011. Why should not Mzee use the same tricks now? If the NRM Primaries are a story of what can come then there will be a “Circus” as Kahinda Otafiire said then. As the pre-ticked ballots, stuffed ballot-boxes, MPs and winners in prison while the results coming, as the candidates comes into the tally offices and takes the register and the ballot-papers. This happen so that the NRM-EC couldn’t validate the result from the area. They we’re also using security officers by the polling station to make the voters afraid and scare them to vote for their candidate, so democratic of those NRM big-men who used this tactic.

While the reports of further deployment of troops in Kampala of 5000 soldiers to secure the peace of the election, or to shut down if the people reacted to the result and claim the rigging for the NRM-Regime, as they have done before, last time was in 2011. Something they want to be sure about. The General Katumba Wamala has said that the army will take control if the people are not accepting the result; I know I am paraphrasing, but that is initially what he meant. It is similar to the NRM-Regimes scary rhetoric, but he got the guns to blast Kampala into oblivion.

There rumours of more ballot-papers coming in the once who came to Entebbe on 28th January 2016, there rumoured that their will come a second batch ballot-papers from the Island state of Seychelles or Mauritius on the 4th February, to deliver and be able to pre-ticket them before arriving in Uganda, to secure the NRM and their men their seats in Parliament. We would not be surprised if this would happen, they have done something like this before.

The next days will be more police around the opposition rallies, they will block the people and be rowdy as the tension and fear of losing grips will take its toll on the police. While the NRM will portray the perfect picture and look beautiful towards the Election Observation Missions from COMESA and EU, while they will do the opposite to the opposition. Tear-gas venues, block venues, stop processions in towns, stop pinning up poster or detaining people for pinning posters or affiliated with the opposition. We will see more radios losing their transmitters, TV stations taking down content questioning the regime as the NBS Sunset did recently questioning the IGP Kayihura, TV-Stations being banished from the NRM or talked about in a vicious way. TV-Stations will either lose their licences or transmitter for having Mbabazi or Besigye, even if they have messages that are negative on the governance levels of NRM. If the NRM-Regime could they would have shut me down… but that is another story.

We will see coming and coming general election that will be questionable, the cringes to power… they will not let it go easy, President Museveni feels he owns the people and the country, even if the people doesn’t feel the same, as seen in Kiruhura district yesterday, his home area was totally blue and no people ferried there. As the FDC doesn’t have the budget of NRM or War-chest of the long-serving president. That will continue until the people goes to the polls. People will try to be bought before going into the voting booth, villages will be visited by NRM millionaires and billionaires who will lose their wealth if the NRM loses their power; so the way to keep their riches is to pay the locals to vote for NRM candidates and sole candidate Mzee. We will see and hear about giving goats, cows and gasoline to boda-boda drivers, as they will give away soap and other merchandize in town-centres from Tororo to Lira. We just know they will go to any measure to secure the power yet again.

So if there will be some other stories then the ones I accessing is because the Orwellian monster will not turn overnight, especially when they have built the King Kong monster over 30 years. So it is a giant who makes the Presidential Palace at Nakasero and Entebbe Statehouse wealth looks tiny. We can’t expect anything else, therefore FDC have to continue with defiance, and the opposition have to stay strong, because the Police have already funds for the post-election violence, and the UPDF is starting to prepare their security of the NRM-regime force of keeping power. So there is little to see unless the people goes back instead of reacting and then goes back to the villages to feed their families. We can hope for something else, but the fear to lose life for the power and seeing how it has turned; an also become after the people demonstrated in 201 P1. So there will be issues in the coming days and the police will show its flex and the army is starting deployment. This here  is not looking positive with the knowledge how this regime is keeping power and wanting to reign as long as possible.Peace.