Opinion: Nkurunziza is set to run in 2020, unless Jesus returns prematurely!

“Voting is not a right. It is a method used to determine which politician was most able to brainwash you.” – Dennis E. Adonis

Let’s be clear, the Burundian government, the CNDD-FDD Party and President Pierre Nkurunziza are preparing for the General Election in 2020. This has been in the works since the Third Term was accepted by the Constitutional Court on the 5^th May 2015. So, that the President could run for his third term, even as it was questionable considering the Arusha Agreement of 2000 and the Constitution. Still, the CNDD-FDD and President went through it and the crisis has persisted since.

We know, that the state is not backing down, as the state has collected a “volunteer” tax as a preparations for the General Elections in 2020. In some instances even stopping students from enrolling if they are not paying the 2020 fee. There even businesses and others who has been sanctioned for not paying the fare to the state. Therefore, the state is steady preparing and ensuring to be paid-in-full.

However, this isn’t the only step to continue the reign of Nkurunziza, as the state held a Referendum on the 21^st May 2018, which voted with a majority of 73%. The Referendum on that day have permitted and secured the President the legality and eligibility to reign until 2034. Where the Presidential Terms also goes from 5 years until 7 year long terms. This is why, the President can run for two more 7 year terms. That is clearly with intention of letting Pierre run a bit longer.

Therefore, even as the African Union (AU) commend Nkurunziza for not standing in 2020. I have a hard time believing it. Because, everything that has happen since 2015 has been about Nkrunziza and him centralizing all power. That the President has stalled the Inclusive Inter-Burundian Dialogue and so on. There is no action, which gives a proper hope.

Even if Agathon Rwasa gets his own party and gets to run. He will be the main challenger of Nkurunziza is 2020, but he will still not be capable to topple the regime. Unless, they are trying to pull a leg and shift focus, but get him to appoint fellow cronies Nkrunziza trusts. Since, there are no sign of less violence, killings, disappearances and people fleeing into exile. There are no reconciliation or no changes made, which are making things hopeful.

The state has already made laws, which are ethnically based, where NGOs have to hire a set amount of one group, and if not they have to close. Which some NGOs have done as a result, also they have to produce more papers and prove their liabilities and if they stop working there, it can all be ceased by the state. That is how they work. The Burundian government have really shown their despicable face to world.

Not only going after the former FNL and other people who questions the CNDD-FDD, but they are really using the security organizations and the Imbonekura (Party Youth-Wing) to silence the ones speaking up against the regime. This the true scare and reality of who Nkurunziza is.

He might smile and grin wisely in propaganda photos leaked online. But his acts of his government is sinister. The reign and misuse of power is extreme. The state are monitoring everything and ensuring everyone is following party line. That is why I have a hard time believing Nkurunziza would step down and give it up. He has the juicy job and eating on the state. He even moved the political capital to Gitega, because he could. That is the sort of President he is. Therefore, no reasons for him to stop. Unless, he wants to save face, but then he might get into trouble as all the skeletons might haunt him. Peace.

FYI: To end with the quote from the headline. The only reason why I say Jesus returns prematurely, is that we as a world has to many projects and to many things undone. That we should have fixed before he returns. Like more democratically elected persons and not selected elites. We should ensure all people have running tap-water in their homes, electricity, work and food in the belly. As long as that is not there. Than, Jesus has come back to early, because we as humanity couldn’t even fix the basics before he came. Therefore, Nkurunziza will surely run again before Jesus returns. Peace II.

African Union Open-Ended Committee of Ministers of Foreign Affairs on the International Criminal Court Convened its 6th Meeting on the Sidelines of the 32nd Ordinary Session of the Executive Council of the African Union (27.01.2018)

Our brave New World Order… Is too leave the ICC

“Why is UN not paying much attention to member states that are clearly sliding into turmoil and crisis and instead is majorly involved in the after effects of Humanitarian assistance. It doesn’t make sense. We can’t wait until it’s too.” – Francis Mwijukye [35th Inter Parliamentary Union- Geneva: High level United Nations Management committee Meeting on Development assistance, Humanitarian assistance, peace keeping operations and Mormative treaty related knowledge, 26.10.2016]

We are living in a brave new world where the world order is switching… its twists and turns, the morning dew disappears and the sun kisses the earth yet again. The last few days the world has changed. Because Nations and States have made decisions that matters; they are not only talking, but now they are acting on it.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) of The Hague is under fire. After Burundi, South Africa and Gambia are thinking of pulling out of the International Court that access the genocides and crimes against humanity.

With the escalated conflicts, the stories of lives doing whatever they can flee nations, this is happening from the internal conflict inside Burundi, Burundians refugees are now in Tanzania, Rwanda and in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This because the President Pierre Nkurunziza decided to stay in power for a third term; when the Constitution of Burundi said the Executive only could have two!

The same with the internal fighting between SPLM/A VS. SPLM/A-IO in South Sudan; where there is battle of power between President Salva Kiir and former FVP Dr. Riek Machar. Because of the conflict in South Sudan the civilian refugees have fled to Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Ethiopia. Now MONUSCO got SPLM/A-IO and Dr. Machar from the DRC to Khartoum earlier this year.

In Kenya this is happening: while the Somali Refugees are now being sent home from Kenya under the command of the government there. This happening while opposition in all of the countries mentioned has optionally torturing, arresting, detaining and even harassing them if needed be. The Kenyan Government using the fear of Al-Shabaab to send the refugees away and also hustle more donor-funding from the United States. That happens because the Jubilee apparently didn’t’ earn enough coins on NYS, Eurobonds or whatever scheme they had in play at the time.

In this New World order that is arranged while the Government are using their Security Organizations to silence opposition. While the Nation with the African Union (AU) Headquarters and are the leader of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the Ethiopian Government even uses helicopters, artillery and soldiers to kill civilians in the regions of Amhara and Oromo people. This is a Nation who has soldiers in Peacekeeping mission all around the Continent, but using all kind of force to oppress their own.

So in this place and time with more totalitarian regimes, with more leaders not leaving offices and with less political freedom; the International Justice is winding down. The rule of law internationally right now is losing its power, while the United Nation’s negations and diplomatic missions like the Inter-Burundian Dialogue under former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mpaka hasn’t gone anywhere. While the dialogue between UN’s own Edem Kodjo hasn’t created anything resembling a General Election run by the CENI in the DRC. That is because President Joseph Kabila has no plan of leaving office without using force on his own. This is happening while the bloodshed continues in the Kivu’s, while the MONUSCO and FARDC watching it in silence. ADF-NALU and the Mayi-Mayi continues as well together with the Ex-FARDC Gen. Muhindo  Akili Mundos has also blood on his hands. This is happening while the Rwandan State still can export high-grade minerals that they cannot even produce or has mines to extract on their soil. This has been happening since the first war in the late 1990s.

So the New World Order is more of the same… the same kind of violence, the other change is the new brave leaders who defy the International Order. They don’t want to follow it when they feel it is unfair. United Nations (UN) might be next or the World Trade Organization (WTO) or the World Health Organization (WHO). As they might respect the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the World Bank (World Bank) because they need their financial stability or the financial stimulus that backs the budgets and aspects the government needs to pay their elites, businesses and whatever it takes to keep the regimes a-float.

This is the grand issues… the human rights violations, killings and detentions… so the Presidents and their Administrations are now afraid of the ICC. They are worried that their actions be served by the Court and they have to answer for their crimes. Doesn’t matter if this court exists or not; the UN should put up Tribunals after the Internal Conflicts like they done in the past. Than it is not direct prosecutions or charges that the ICC has put on Executives or any in the inner-circle of ruling regimes as they know their using illegal forces to silence their people and citizens. Though the feelings from African Nations that they are feeling threaten by the ICC and their actions as they are not going-in on Europeans or Americans in general, while African Generals and Politicians are hand-picked.

I’m just waiting for the honourable nations of Morocco, Mauritania, Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Angola, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Swaziland, Togo, Guinea, and Equatorial Guinea, and so on… There are more that will make decisions to leave, as even Cote d’Ivoire might revoke their place.

There are fears on the horizon, the ICC is losing its standing, the international community better listen as the men who are greedy on power and resources take it in these days by any means and hope to get away with it, while their people suffer. The only differences at our time are that information is not forgotten or not told. It’s there for those who listen; time to consider and rethink the World Order and where we want to be. Peace.

Readout for the Secretary-General’s meeting with H.E. Mr. Jacob Zuma, President of the Republic of South Africa (19.09.2016)

The Secretary-General and the President discussed the importance of inclusive political dialogue in South Sudan, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

GENEVA, Switzerland, September 19, 2016 – The Secretary-General met with H.E. Mr. Jacob ZUMA, President of South Africa. The Secretary-General thanked South Africa for its many contributions to peace and security in Africa.

He urged South Africa to ratify the climate change agreement as soon as possible. He also drew attention to migration and refugee challenges and stressed the need for a truly global sharing of responsibilities.

The Secretary-General and the President discussed the importance of inclusive political dialogue in South Sudan, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

H.E. Benjamin Mpaka Statement at the Extra-Ordinary EAC Heads of State Summit recently (Earlier in September 2016)

Burundi: Mouvement Citoyen “Halte au Troisieme Mandat” (29.05.2016)

 

Remarks on Burundi by Farhan Haq, the Deputy Spokesman for the UN Secretary-General (26.05.2016)

NEW YORK, United States of America, May 25, 2016 – “Special Adviser Jamal Benomar is traveling to Bujumbura today following the conclusion of talks on Burundi that took place in Arusha, Tanzania.

The Special Adviser hopes that the talks in Arusha were a first step towards genuine and inclusive dialogue. He welcomed the meetings and stressed the undeniable challenge of starting a viable political process. He urged all of those involved to work diligently in order for that to happen as soon as possible.

Mr. Benomar has been consulting with various stakeholders who attended the talks and will continue to reach out to and consult with others who did not attend.  During his visit to Arusha, he reiterated to former President Benjamin Mkapa that he and his team are ready to assist and support the facilitator in moving the process forward.”

President Mkapa closing remarks on the first session of Burundi dialogue in Arusha (Youtube-Clip)

“During these four days, we have had very fruitful consultations. At any moment there were no acrimonious interventions. All of you showed a high degree of civility, patriotism and a great desire to own the dialogue. It is evident that you are yearning for peace and a stop to killings and assassinations. I note that there is tremendous aversion to violence, targeted killings, and the realization that war is not a solution to the crisis. Some of you have expressed concerns about the economic decline obtaining in the country because of the crisis. I hope that during your stay here in Arusha, you were able to interact and exchange widely on issues of general concern. In the next two weeks, I will continue and complete the consultations with those who did not come during this session, but whom I feel might have positive contributions to make to the process. I will also consult with the Mediator in order to determine the way forward. Thereafter, I expect to convene a dialogue session possibly during the third week of June.” (Ikiriho News, 2016)

Burundi: “Actions speak louder than words” – Tom Malinowski (Youtube-Clip)

“In a press conference issued on this Saturday morning by Tom Malinowski, an assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor concerning his visit in Burundi where he met with different officials, Tom declared his position about the procrastination of the government to execute their” (Iwacu Web TV, 2016).

Burundian UN Security Council Resolution 2279; a good deed, but will it make a difference?

As the unrest and crisis in Burundi continues even if they have Peacekeepers in Central African Republic and Somalia. The Opposition and the Government still keeps on with killings and oppressive behavior from the Government Armed Forces from the Police and the Army. The Opposition even tries to do plots to take down people of higher rankings as they have even attacked and gone after ministers and army generals. That is why the United Nation Security Council on the 1^st of April 2016 finally have come to resolution on the conflict as the Inclusive Inter-Burundian Dialogue that have been stalled after the Ugandan President Museveni was out of the picture. There since been little or no-talks between the powerful actors in the country.

Even with stories of counter-insurgencies from Rwanda and trained militias to topple the President Nkurunziza shows the viability and how the positions are played at the moment. But here are the most specific and most important parts of the UN resolution 2279 (2016) of the Security Council:

“Stressing the primary responsibility of the Government of Burundi for ensuring security in its territory and protecting its population with respect for the rule of law, human rights and international humanitarian law, as applicable” (…)”Urges the Government of Burundi and all parties to reject any kind of violence and condemn any public statement inciting violence or hatred and demands that all sides in Burundi refrain from any action that would threaten peace and stability in the country” (…)”Urges the Government of Burundi to respect, protect and guarantee human rights and fundamental freedoms for all, in line with the country’s international obligations, to adhere to the rule of law, to bring to justice and hold accountable all those responsible for violations of international humanitarian law or violations and abuses of human rights, as applicable, including sexual violence and violations against children” (…)”Welcomes the steps made by the Government of Burundi to withdraw some media bans, cancel some arrest warrants and release a significant number of detainees, and urges the Government of Burundi to urgently fulfil the remaining commitments announced by the Government of Burundi on 23 February 2016 and to extend such measures to other media outlets and political detainees” (…)”Welcomes the consent of the Burundian authorities to increase to 200 the number of human rights observers (100) and military experts (100) of the AU, calls for their full and speedy deployment in Burundi, notes that 30 human rights observers and 15 military observers have been deployed so far, and urges the Government of Burundi and other concerned stakeholders to provide them with full cooperation in order to facilitate the implementation of their mandate” (…)”Calls on States in the region to contribute to a solution to the crisis in Burundi, and to refrain from supporting the activities of armed movements in any way, and recalls in this regard commitments of the States in the region under the Framework Agreement on the Peace, Security and Cooperation for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the region and the 1951 Convention relating to the status of refugees” (UN Resolution 2279, 2016).

Most of this is expected from the United Nation Security Council and their values and the wishes of security of the people of Burundi; which is the reason for why the resolution occurs. The issue I have with it, is not that the Resolution finally get Blue-Helmets on the ground and they are supposed to help to gain peace. But when you see the amount of people, experts and military men from the Peacekeepers it is very little. As little as it seems to be a gimmick and then the world society “we did something” but initially that something was very little.

And the Burundian Government will sure make sure their mandate is minor or small so they can conduct their affairs as much as they please only to formally do the implementation that are into the standards of the signed statues and the agreements done to international laws. So they don’t have grievances with anybody or anyone from the United Nation or the International donors to the Burundian Regime.

That the UN Peacekeepers will have the total of 100 Military Experts as Peacekeepers, that is a tiny base; they will not have the mandate or structure to do much in Burundi. It is more than the 15 Military Experts that are there now, so it is as adjustment. The Human Rights Monitoring will not be able to force anything, but to report to the UN and AU on the matters and issues on the ground. For me what is important is to remember the dire state that was in Rwanda before 1994. As this is similar and also had a Peacekeeping mission. But looking at the similarities when coming to the mission; the Burundian Peacekeepers can’t do much about nothing.

Important dates and issues with Rwandan Peacekeeping Mission:

“On 22 June 1993, the Security Council, by its resolution 846 (1993), authorized the establishment of UNOMUR on the Uganda side of the common border, for an initial period of six months, subject to review every six months. The Council decided that the verification would focus primarily on transit or transport, by roads or tracks which could accommodate vehicles, of lethal weapons and ammunition across the border, as well as any other material which could be of military use” (…)”As requested by resolution 846 (1993), the United Nations undertook consultations with the Government of Uganda with a view to concluding a status of mission agreement for UNOMUR. The agreement was finalized and entered into force on 16 August 1993. This opened the way to deployment of an advance party which arrived in the mission area on 18 August. UNOMUR established its headquarters in Kabale, Uganda, about 20 kilometres north of the border with Rwanda. By the end of September 1993, the Mission had reached its authorized strength of 81 military observers and was fully operational” (…)”. Reporting to the Security Council on 15 December 1993 on the activities of the Mission, the Secretary-General noted that UNOMUR was “a factor of stability in the area and that it was playing a useful role as a confidence-building mechanism”. Upon his recommendation, the Council, by its resolution 891 (1993) of 20 December 1993, extended UNOMUR’s mandate by six months. The Council expressed its appreciation to the Government of Uganda for its cooperation and support for UNOMUR and also underlined the importance of a cooperative attitude on the part of the civilian and military authorities in the mission area” (UNOMOR Background).

We all who followed the Situation in the Rwandan Genocide knew what happened after this and that the mission of United Nations Peacekeepers was not incapable of doing anything with the dire situation in Rwanda that was already in 1993 and what escalated in 1994. Those 81 Military Observers did not have the manpower or the mandate to sufficiently do anything in the country.

As we are today in April 2016, 12 years after 1994, in the neighbor country of Burundi who also have history of civil war and violence, that ended in the Arusha Peace Accord of 2000 and gave way to over a decade of peace. Still, it was not sufficient or enough. 

So the 15 Military Experts or Observers cannot deal with anything especially since their mandate is not yet there; as the negotiations with the Burundian government are under way, the Burundian government wants as little or no meddling in their internal affairs; and with that in mind they have stifled the ability to have international peacekeepers in the country. Even if the UN Mission in Burundi with their 100 Peacekeepers, how much more power will they compared to the counterparts in Rwanda in 1993-1994? I doubt the Burundian Government will give up sovereignty and let them play national Police and Army over them. As they have Army Forces in Peacekeeping mission themselves in Somalia and Central African Republic.

Burundian President Nkurunziza said this in late December 2015: “Everybody should respect the borders of Burundi. If the troops are in violation of this decision, they will have attacked Burundi, and each Burundian must stand up to fight them” (…)”The country will have been attacked, and we will fight them” (…)”You cannot send troops to a country if the United Nations Security Council has not accepted it… the UN resolution says the international community should respect the independence of Burundi” (Daily Monitor, 2015).

Now yesterday the new Resolution said they would extend the Military Experts (Observers) which counters the words and arguments used by the President in December 2015. That an Resolution from the United Nation would change the matter, even the resolution is so vague and non-descriptive as it even in dialogue with the Burundian Government:

“…urges the Government of Burundi and other concerned stakeholders to provide them with full cooperation in order to facilitate the implementation of their mandate” (UN Resolution 2279, 2016).

This gives way to Burundian Government to do as they see fit in their sovereign territory while the Peacekeeping mission of United Nations will have little power or mandate to address, because we already knows that President Nkurunziza have little interest in having a powerful mandate to the United Nations Peacekeeping mission as he already wanted to attack the African Union planned Peacekeeping mission in the Country.

The 100 people of the UN Peacekeeping mission will in this state, and with this sort of arrangement and resolution gives lots of responsibility towards the Burundian Government, and will certainly not made in way that is adjusted to the concerns of the United Nation Security Council.

This resolution gives little or no direct mandate to the United Nations Mission and gives way for negotiations for the Burundian Government. Therefore the start of it is flawed and leaves possibilities of being a minor sting of pride for President Nkurunziza; as much as it was for President Juvénal Habyarimana of Rwanda in 1993; to have a peacekeeping mission in his country. But if it has limited power or even reach, and with little manpower as it have, the worry for the Burundian government not necessary have to be there. Because the United Nation Mission can’t or doesn’t have the ability to stop anything; just peeping and monitoring at best; as much as the Human Rights workers that are parts of the Mission. The Military experts will be lame ducks, while waiting for a secure mandate. A mandate that the Government of Burundi not wanting to give them, as that will take away their sovereignity as a state and nation. Peace.  

Reference:

Daily Monitor – ‘Nkurunziza warns he would fight AU peacekeepers’ (30.12.2015) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/World/Nkurunziza-warns-fight-AU-peacekeepers-/-/688340/3015170/-/k7p15vz/-/index.html

United Nation  – ‘Uganda-Rwanda-UNOMOR Background’