Opinion: Being a sovereign has a cost…

“Documents submitted by Ministry of Finance before Parliament’s Budget Committee have revealed that Uganda’s support from donors is expected to drop from Shs2.781Trn in 2023/24 to merely Shs28.94Bn in the coming budget of 2024/25” (Parliament Watch, 12.01.2024).

The Republic of Uganda and its government is within its rights to enact laws and codes, which the citizens must adhere too. That is a must and a need of any sovereign state. Uganda is no exception here in this regard. However, they have been used to donations, grants and fiscal stimulus from the outside, which has had strings attached and they are now working directly against it.

The recent shortfall of funds and lack of donor support comes because of the Anti-Homosexuality Act of 2023. This because the Western donors aren’t interested in supporting governments that target the LGBTQ and criminalize their behavior. Therefore, in the interests of the donors this isn’t what they signed up for or want to support. That’s why the donor funds are dwindling at a rapid rate.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) has caused themselves this distress. They are within its rights to do so, but this is self-inflicted harm. The Act itself was said to not do financial damage when the paper was written about it. However, we are seeing the truth.

The President and his Party can act all supreme, but we know they are used to eat other people’s money. This is why they are bound to borrow more funds and continue the spiral of deficit financing with loans from elsewhere. That’s what they are up to and its obvious to the naked eye that it will only get worse.

The donors won’t come to the government’s aide now. They cannot sell it to their own people and gain popularity by doing so. Because they know it won’t create the popular drive they need. The NRM and the President can be popular for doing so in the Republic of Uganda, but it is different in the donor countries.

This is the reality and it’s all about the cause and the affect. One action has another reaction. A chain-reaction if you may… the NRM is learning the hard way and a brutal one at that. They are self-serving and doing it with a purpose. Though the costs of this burden will be on the next generation and when the loans mature. If they are off the hook, the debt burden won’t hurt directly, but sooner or later the nation will face default. Unless they suddenly has a new revenue stream to save it’s grace. Peace.

Opinion: Odrek was sent on a mission bound to end in failure…

The son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo, the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID) who is a delegate and a government official on a mission for the Republic to salvage AGOA and keep good trade relations with the United States of America. His suddenly disappointed that his mandate and office isn’t bearing fruits in the Washington D.C.

It is like the Son-in-Law didn’t know what would meet him. Like he couldn’t see the Biden Administration and their policies. They have certain stings attached and ideals behind them, which won’t consider or be terms that they will consider to flinch on. That’s why the son-in-law isn’t getting results or any sort of positive vibe.

That isn’t strange either. Odrek was sent on a fools errand. There was nothing to gain here at the moment. Unless, he knew about secret repeal of a legislation or a sudden ability to revoke it. This all stem from the enactment and legalization of the Anti-Homosexuality Act. Whatever you think about that… this is the reason and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) should have seen it coming. They knew the sentiments of the donors and the West. If they wanted to play ball. They had to give way and not pass the act. However, it did… and now it faces consequences for doing so.

The loss of AGOA will be costly and exports will halt. There will be another tariff and make it more expensive to export to the United States markets. A market that is vital and big for exports. Therefore, the Ugandan businesses and value-addition industries will be hurt by this.

The Son-in-Law should know the sentiments and the reasons for the fall-out. It isn’t like the Government of Uganda or any high ranking official has tried to appease Washington D.C.. Instead, it has spoken ill of it and said they could keep the “plague”. When you do that… there is little good fate and neither trust or justification to rescind a decision. That’s what is so striking here.

The NRM and Museveni knows all of this and they have been here before. That’s why a similar law was thrown out. Just so the NRM and Museveni could get back into the good graces. If we would see something similar in December 2023 or early 2024 wouldn’t be surprising. As the deficit financing and businesses needs to cover their shortfall as a result of the law.

I have discussed the hypocrisy of the U.S. before and won’t copy that again. That has already been told. However, this is all about a son-in-law and government that knows the drill. They know what they have to do and is naive to think otherwise. However, here we are and Odrek isn’t as smart as he thought he was. Maybe he thought he could sell porkies and make gold. Nevertheless, that’s not how things works.

The NRM and Odrek have stipulations and articles to follow to be in accordance with AGOA. If they want to be there and be designated for the trade. They better adhere to it and then they will return. That’s up to the government and parliament to do. These has to decide and make amends. That’s if they want to be a part of it.

Regardless of just that… something got to give and the son-in-law just got to have his Damascus moment. Until then, nothing will happen. Peace.

Opinion: KaBobi was destined to be torn to pieces…

“In a recent interview with BBC, Kyagulanyi disclosed the immense pressure he is grappling with, revealing a shocking admission of his friendly relations with members of the gay community. Mr Wine asserted that; “the anti-gay law was strategically enacted to target me and my loved ones”. In a bold revelation, Kyagulanyi claimed that his party’s unanimous support for the controversial law in parliament was orchestrated by President Yoweri Kaguta Tibuhaburwa Museveni, accusing him of manipulating NUP MPs to serve his political agenda. “He [Museveni] didn’t bring it in the interests of the people of Uganda – but to target the opposition,” Kyagulanyi claimed” (The Whisper Eye, 07.12.2023).

A life of a politician isn’t easy and it’s even harder in a dictatorship. Especially, when the dictator and the cronies around him is using populistic means to get people on its side. That’s when the opposition have to handle things accordingly and stand on a moral high-ground. However, sooner or later, that bubble can burst and it did happen this week with Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine.

The Anti-Homosexuality Bill is a quagmire for the politicians. It is a draconian legislation and targets one specific minority. The legislation in itself is repulsive, but it has enough popularity in a majority of circles. As there been no public outcry or dismay of the enacting of the legislation. All pressure comes from the outside and really not from within. The pressure from within is withering and if not gone silent, because of the legislation itself.

That’s where Bobi Wine comes in as the former Presidential Candidate and Party President of the National Unity Platform (NUP). His the leader of the biggest opposition party and he knows it. He has to take a stance and be careful about it. As a man of rising popularity. The man knows how quickly things can change or even be lost. That has been shown time and time again.

This Anti-Homosexuality Bill are an eye-sore for Bobi Wine. That’s why he has been so cautious to address it. It’s like he didn’t want to touch the subject or even address it. Bobi Wine rather talk about the mismanagement, the impunity of the state and the horrific human rights violations done on the watch of the state. That’s what he wants to address and make a statement on. He doesn’t want to touch or be known for anything in particular in concern to the Anti-Homosexuality Bill. No, he don’t and he intends not too.

That’s why he had no where to hide in the United Kingdom and the BBC Interviewer came knocking. He had to say something and speak out about it. Because, the UK and the West are in dismay over the law. They are rebuking it and wants the Republic to make amends. However, that is the interests of donor community and not the popular belief in Republic right now. If it was… there would have been another attitude and moral objection too it, which no one has seen.

This is why Bobi Wine is troubled. He knows this and so does his team. He can’t spin this one and become the victor. Either his a prick abroad or his a beloved character at home. In this instance, he cannot be both. Bobi Wine cannot be the revolutionary politician when he trades his moral compass to stay in good graces everywhere. He got to take a stance and abide by it. If it costs, well… then it costs. If not… he has to disregard it and downplay it abroad.

This BBC Interview didn’t do him any favours. Only shows him from another side and he has to make a vital decision here. He cannot spin the wheel and not think it doesn’t has consequences. Because, it does… and he knows that too.

He will be torn to pieces over this interview. Regardless of what he would say on the subject. It would be retorts and rebukes. Either in Kampala or from London. That was destined to happen and we could have seen it coming. Peace.

Justice Forum (JEEMA) letter to President of National Unity Platfom (NUP) Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi (04.12.2023)

Opinion: Mzee’s arrogance towards AGOA…

I need to advise you not to be over-concerned by the recent actions by the American Government in discouraging their companies from investing in Uganda and on removing Uganda from the AGOA list” – President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (05.11.2023).

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is an opportunity for the businesses in Uganda to export products or produce, raw material and others to the United States of America on unique terms. Which has been beneficial for other nations. While the National Resistance Movement (NRM) haven’t been able to develop or follow the terms or conditions for such is another matter. As we know the Kenyans are much more thrifty and has set the standard on these matters. That’s maybe why the President is so arrogant and brushes it off.

A key aspect in the letter from U.S. President Joe Biden on the 30th October was this:

Despite intensive engagement between the United States and the Central African Republic, Gabon, Niger, and Uganda, these countries have failed to address United States concerns about their non-compliance with the AGOA eligibility criteria.” (Biden, 30.10.2023).

The key term here is “non-compliance” and meaning the Ugandan authorities or government itself is breaching the agreement, which is reason for the opportunity to trade within the framework of AGOA. The Ugandan government might disagree with these conditions or terms, but has to comply to be eligible in the first place. That’s the rule that AGOA sets on anyone and they just have to comply. It is as simple as that.

However, Museveni wants it his way…

Uganda, under the NRM, is and will succeed, regardless of what some of the external actors and internal detractors do. The further good news, is that not all the Western Countries’ actors are of the same arrogant attitude. Many, actually, either agree with us or believe in the correct principles of live and let live. Even in the colonial times, some Western actors supported our anti-colonial struggle. People like Fenner Brockway, Dingle Foot, Olof Palme, etc., supported us” (Museveni, 05.11.2023).

The U.S. legislation of AGOA is a “new” one in some senses, as it only dates back to 2020. It isn’t a colonial relic or a mechanism from the days of slavery. No, it is a modern one, which has one important aspect.

That is explained like this: “The legislation significantly enhances market access to the US for qualifying Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. It does that by allocating a special program indicator (‘D’) to approximately 6,800 tariff lines in the US tariff schedule, which allows US importers to clear such goods – sourced from eligible African countries – duty-free under AGOA” (AGOA – About AGOA).

This explanation is stating one fact, which the businesses of Uganda misses out on. They will loose out on favourable tariffs when exporting to the U.S. Market. Meaning the prices of exporting will go up and the viability to enter the market will be much tougher. On the short-term its only the ones supplying and exporting the U.S. under these terms that is hit today. However, in the long run… the ones who wants or have a chance. They will either be to expensive or to much red-tape to get there. Which isn’t better for development or trading in general.

The AGOA and principals of AGOA could be beneficial for Ugandan businesses. Especially, if export businesses and the ones who has value-added enterprises wanted to significantly enter a capitalistic market and ensure possibility of selling on a large scale. Because, that what you do, if you get a shot.

We see that the President doesn’t value this and for his often speaking of value-addition. This here is the opposite and it isn’t clever. Neither using arrogance or colonialism. The AGOA is about an opening to a market and ability to trade without to many hurdles. The AGOA has stipulations, but if you adhere to them. You get prospects of entering a market, which gives you possible profits. Therefore, you are foolish to let this one slide. However, that is what the President does and he doesn’t mind.

Actually, the President isn’t concerned… and that is telling. Peace.

The United States Trade Representative – Executive Office of the President letter to Ugandan Minister of Trade, Industry and Cooperatives Hon. Francis Mwebesa on “AGOA” (31.10.2023)

Uganda: PACEID – Statement from the Office of Odrek Rwabwogo, Chair of Uganda’s Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports & Industrial Development (PACEID) – (01.11.2023)

Opinion: U.S. Business Advisory warns about investing in Mzee’s regime

The Departments of State, Labor, Health and Human Services, Commerce, and the U.S. Agency for International Development, today issued a Business Advisory on Uganda. The Advisory informs U.S. businesses, individuals, and other U.S. persons, including health services providers, members of academic institutions, and investors, of potential risks they may face if they are conducting, or contemplating to conduct, business in Uganda. Businesses, organizations, and individuals should be aware of potential financial and reputational risks resulting from endemic corruption, described in more detail in the 2023 Investment Climate Statement, as well as violence against human rights activists, media members, health workers, members of minority groups, LGBTQI+ persons, and political opponents described in the 2022 Country Report on Human Rights Practices in Uganda. Uganda’s enactment of the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA) on May 29, 2023, further increases restrictions on human rights, to include restrictions on freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly, and exacerbates issues regarding the respect for leases and employment contracts” (U.S. Department of State – ‘U.S. Government Issues a Business Advisory for Uganda’ 23.10.2023).

A man that is steadily promoting value addition and financial integration. The President of Uganda is failing the nation. It is going backwards and not forwards. Not in any sense and now with the latest news. The investors and other on the financial markets will shun the nation even further. This will hurt the economy and make it even less viable.

The Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) can dry up from certain parts of the world. Just like the lack of foreign donors and donor funds to cover the shortfall in the national budgets. The domestic revenue and lack of investors might some come too. As other nations will follow the United States of America (USA) and these are the ones that comes with funds. Meaning this can be a big blow to the President and his National Resistance Movement (NRM).

The U.S. authorities are late on this one, but better late than never. This is going after the pockets and advice people to spend their monies elsewhere. That’s a blow for someone who has been working on reviving an economy since 1986. The President who speaks of exports and getting products to market. Now the market won’t come to him and the ones who has the ability to purchase are asked to shun it. Meaning there will be less tangible investments and others will follow.

The NRM and the Government of Uganda should see the writing on the wall. This is continuing to damage the economy. It is continuing where the World Bank suspended funding and this will also take away the food from the plate. There will be less funds and less people will have a chance to eat.

We could see this one coming when the state and the legislators decided to target one minority on the behalf of everyone. That’s one of the main reasons, but there are certainly other aspects which is also mentioned in the text. Showing that the human rights violations and impunity has a price.

This here will hurt the pride and prestige of the President. He knows this will spark a wildfire and he cannot contain it. The World Bank didn’t seem to significant and he hoped someone else would cover the shortfall of funds. However, now… there is becoming less viable and sooner or later other reactions will come too. By that time… it’s to late and the crippling economy is upon the nation. A nation that has been run on deficit financing and now the options for fiscal stimulus or outside revenue is dwindling. People will follow this advisory and other nations will follow the U.S. line of action.

This here is tragic for the shilling and the ones who depend on FDI. Because, the message is spread and this will haunt the 11th Parliament, State House and everyone else involved. They could see this one coming, but I am sure they just looked the other way. Peace.

Uganda: Director of Public Prosecutions Jane Frances Abodo – Circular No. 18/2023 – Re: Managment of Cases with Charges preferred under the Anti-Homosexuality Act 2023 (25.08.2023)

A look into Bobi Wine’s response to Mzee on suspension of World Bank loans…

It is you, Sir, who has left undone what you ought to have done, and did that which you ought not have done. There is no truth in you. Just take a long, hard look in the mirror” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

That Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine wrote a text and published it today. This is telling the importance, because Bobi Wine is the leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP) and the biggest contender for the Presidency at the moment. The 2021 elections if it wasn’t a rigged affair. It would have been his and he would have won it. However, we know the game is rigged and there is no true will of the people.

In this regard it is interesting to see what sort of retort Bobi Wine uses. Because, we know the drill and I have also retorted to President Museveni. Though this was a long awaited call, but a useful one.

Bobi Wine starts with this: “Gen Museveni, Your recent outburst about the World Bank withholding future assistance to Uganda is a clear indication of your ideological disorientation and policy nomadism that has characterised your four-decade rule. You wasted twenty-seven pages trying to distort history and divert reality, that an average reader was left wondering who is (or has been) in charge of Uganda” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

He is speaking facts, but you see how he calls him. That’s telling of the vision and how he perceives Museveni. His a General and not the President. A man of the guns and arms. Museveni was telling porkies and making a mockery attempt to swift blame elsewhere. However, that’s been his game since the start of his career. That is all Museveni knows and what he does to make himself look better.

Bobi Wine continues: “To date, you cannot account for the demise of the country’s textile, public transport, food processing, leisure facilities, agricultural cooperatives, and manufacturing capacity that made places like Jinja, Bushenyi, Masaka and Mbale shining beacons of the potential that our young country possessed. You have replaced Uganda’s public capital with miserable gimmicks like Operation Wealth Creation, replaced hitherto thriving agricultural cooperatives with non-starters called SACCOs. The NRA is not and was never the innocent, well-meaning, and foresighted actor that you portray it to be. It was and remains – as NRM – a corrupt, violent force that has played a major role in the delayed socioeconomic transformation of Uganda. Neo-colonialism is alive and well under you, Sir” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

Here again he issues the cold hard truth. The reality of what the reign of Museveni has brought. There is little to show for it and Museveni’s men has dismantled a lot of possible “value additional industries” across the Republic. That’s been done through incentives and with the hands of the neocolonial institutions after the Bush-War. As the subsidizes and the Co-Ops, and even vital agricultural boards was destroyed. So, Bobi Wine is right and Museveni is just trying to pin this all on them, instead of taking the blame himself for accepting the stipulations in office. Museveni has sold off and destroyed a lot potential for a quick buck. That’s why industries has failed and no real long-term policy has been enacted, which could have made a vast difference.

Bobi Wine further states: “Out of the nine men who have occupied the office of the President in the past 61 years since our supposed independence, you’re the undisputed champion of neo-colonial and neoliberal agendas. It is under your regime that the sale of public service infrastructure – under the guidance and encouragement of the same World Bank that you are blaming now – occurred. You have presided over the reckless liberalisation, extreme de-regulation, and sacrifice of our public sector at the altar of foreign interests. We can see through your hypocrisy” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

It is just rich reading this. The talking points and the way Bobi Wine describes things. This shows political maturity and deep understanding of things. It is commendable. The way that he debunks and says what Museveni contributed too. Which we all have seen and Museveni was a donor darling for a reason. He played and danced to their songs. Because that was easy money and he could eat of their plate. That’s why he accepted the stipulations and played with them. He didn’t have to work and still he could live lavish. Therefore, Bobi Wine undresses Museveni perfectly here.

Bobi Wine writes: “Your prioritisation of regime survival has destroyed, among other things, the district, national referral hospital system, and public health infrastructure generally. As a result, the formerly reliable hospitals in Iganga, Itojo, Mbale, Soroti, and Lira are now moribund, understaffed and under-equipped death traps that you replaced with equally miserable health centres. Your salvation lies in the fact that the United States Agency for International Development subsidises your failures by supporting critical public health needs, including catering for our military’s health and medical needs. So who is the neocolonialist here?” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

It is like Bobi Wine just shoots a hole in any argument or reasoning Museveni had in his piece. His just piercing through it. Making enough holes to call him a Swiss Cheese. Bobi Wine is cleverly telling the tale of how Aid, Loans and Grants are the saving grace of the regime. Which has been stated by plenty before him. This is nothing new, but special that someone of Bobi Wine says it this openly. As it undermines the story and the tales that Museveni wants about himself. Museveni wants to be supreme and the all-knowing leader. The man with all the answers, but like always he needs other people’s money to foot his bills. That’s why Bobi Wine’s words are so rich and detailed and utterly destroys the reasoning of Museveni.

Near the end, Bobi Wine wrote these fitting words: “Accordingly, it is the height of fiction and deceit, for you to make the deliberately false prediction that “in a few years” Uganda’s economy will hit the half-a-trillion dollar mark. A cursory look at the revenue collection challenges the URA has experienced over the past several quarters, and the high mortality rates of SMEs tells you everything you need to dismiss this baseless projection. The truth is usually brief, so I need not elaborate these self-evident points in the same way you wrote nearly thirty pages to explain your ‘successes’ after almost 40 years in power! That you even had to ‘highlight’ for the country your supposed successes should tell you everything you need to know” (Bobi Wine, 24.08.2023).

As I did discuss in my retort to Museveni. It showed that the lack of domestic revenue was a reason for the failure of progress and development. That’s why the World Bank loans, grants or aide hadn’t sufficiently created the purposed goals of investment or value of money. This is why it’s a well drafted and expose to say these things. Museveni knows his at fault, but easier to blame a neocolonial institution, than take blame himself. Because, he has had the time to do so and get things done in a proper manner. However, we all know that he prefers the get-rich schemes and eat of the plate of others. That’s what he has done and it’s the reason why the World Bank loans haven’t been enough.

Bobi Wine wrote a splendid piece here and shows political maturity. The ones underestimating him… they should fear him. He proves his calibre here and it should be respected. Bobi Wine could have taken plenty of avenues, but picked this one. Peace.