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Archive for the tag “IMF”

Uganda is still not ready for IMF’s PCI!

“The Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) is a non-financing tool open to all members of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It enables them to signal commitment to reforms and catalyze financing from other sources. The establishment of the PCI is part of the Fund’s broader effort to strengthen the global financial safety net—a network of insurance and loan instruments that countries can draw on if confronted with a crisis.” (International Monetary Funds – ‘IMF Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) 26.07.2017).

This here is really spelling out the missing dots in the budget and monetary policy wise, as the IMF has concluded a visit, but told that certain aspects are missing. Even explaining that the Republic have to be careful about borrowing money. As the Republic tend to do these days for all sorts of projects and building infrastructure all around the country. However, the IMF isn’t praising Uganda, the IMF is telling what it needs, if they want to be part of the PCI. That is important, because being part of that, then the state will have systems and ways to gain outside sources of funding and also safety mechanisms in the needs of rainy days. Therefore, following this program would be healthy for the economy, but will the National Resistance Movement and President Museveni comply to this? Would they?

“The authorities have made progress in setting economic policy objectives for FY18/19 and the medium-term. Fiscal policy seeks to keep public debt at a sustainable level which requires raising tax collection and prioritizing spending needs, while protecting key infrastructure projects and social expenditures. Monetary policy targets core inflation of 5 percent. Bank of Uganda aims to maintain international reserves at 4 to 4½ months of imports. Structural reforms would focus on revenue mobilization, public financial and investment management, reducing domestic arrears, enhancing financial sector stability and development, and putting in place the remaining elements of the framework for managing future oil revenues. The mission reached agreement on many key elements of a possible 3-year program under the Policy Coordination Instrument, but further progress in some areas is still needed. Once the FY18/19 budget has been approved as agreed, the mission could resume discussions” (International Monetary Funds – ‘International Monetary Fund (IMF) Staff Concludes Visit to Uganda’ 31.05.2018).

It isn’t the first time the IMF and World Bank says there policies and monetary programs needs changes, needs to be amended and fixed, so it is safer. This is something that always comes back. The NRM are clearly not listening or interested in listening. They are pre-occupied with the handshakes of the State House and the insider trading that they like to do. Not have accountability and transparency, because then all the tools of the shed is in the open. President Museveni doesn’t want his ghosts, his fake projects and his forged paperwork to be in the open. That would hurt his pride and also humiliate him. That is the reality of it all.

Therefore, the state has a long walk ahead still, even with the new revenue sources, as they are not considering the implications yet on the public. Just more revenue for revenues sake, but not how hard the new taxes really will have. They will hurt the public and the poorest the most. Nevertheless, they are not a concern for the state; they are more bargain chips for needed donor funds anyway.

President Museveni will not be interested in opening the books and showing the reality. We know that, therefore the PCI will not introduced shortly, neither will the accountability or transparency change either. It is not in his interest to revolutionize that. Then he would humiliate himself, which he only does to Opposition leaders, not to himself. Peace.

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Opinion: When will the grace period of the Chinese loans end? – While, Kenya and Uganda continues to borrow more!

The Government of Kenya and the Government of Uganda, should both worry about their arrangements and their growing debts, as the non-sustainable rates of debt and higher interests. As the unnatural growth of the national budget, where the lack of revenue is covered with more state debt. To cover both salaries and development projects. All of this has happen over the recent years. As more and more of the yearly budget goes to pay interest on old loans, as the old loans also mature and the rates will become more dire. As the strength of the economy isn’t going in the same rates as the loans. This is in the end a debt trap. A debt trap China has used in other countries.

Sri Lanka is the recent example, which has come into a debt trap, where the Chinese loans has become so dire, become so big and not able to recover. That the collateral for the state was to favorable lease the harbor of Hambantota to the Chinese. They had too, since they couldn’t repay the creditor from Peking. That should be realization from all the others who borrows big and think that the Chinese will not get something valuable back for their funding.

This should be a warning for the Kenyan and Ugandan counterparts, this should be a warning for President Kenyatta and President Museveni. That is if they care about the state resources, about their minerals and about the possible extractions from their republics. If they want to be debt-slaves, or lease away the crown jewels to the Chinese, because they promised favorable debt plans, that in the end put them in juxtaposition, that they cannot come out off; unless they trade away something very valuable. If that would be licenses to drill oil in Turkana or in Bunyoro.

Who knows what the end-game of these massive loans are and if the Presidents and their parties plans to repay them. Or hope that the next generation will try to invent new way of generating money. If so, then they are saved by rare luck and not by planning ahead. These loans are big and taking bigger and bigger slices of the GDP. They are going far beyond the levels of revenue and possible future forecast of funds. Therefore, the loans can only at this point benefit the ones giving them. They will get the repayments and the interests. If they don’t get that, they will take collateral and take other state entities to get their values back. The Chinese are doing that in Sri Lanka, they could easily do that with Kenya and Uganda too. They are in for the taking and ready to muscled out.

The Chinese doesn’t play and doesn’t play with money, they will recollect and they will recover the funds spent. As they are not playing games, they are really investing and hoping to get paid-in-full. They are waiting for the numbers to go from red to black. They don’t expect to loose, and if they do. They will figure other ways to collect the lost.

President Kenyatta and President Museveni should know this, but I doubt they are thinking in this direction right now. They are eating and not caring, but their states and their economist should worry. As the growing debts has a backside, not only the interests and the lack of development it creates, as they have to find bigger revenue to cover the debt and the mature loans, as they have to settle old affairs and such. They don’t go away or get deleted over nothing. They got to take charge and find a way to solve it.

The Chinese will take advantage if they start to default, if they struggle to pay, which could come, if the loans and the negative spiral of lack of revenue continues. That is if the state doesn’t find ways to repay. Than, the Chinese might take a port, might take state owned enterprise, but surely they will be paid-in-full. Peace.

The World Bank commends the rising taxes in Uganda!

Yep, the biggest bank and the Bretton Woods Organization called the World Bank has commended the works of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his plans for added taxes. That comes from the similar institution like International Monetary Fund, that ordered Uganda to follow the Structural Adjustment Plan (SAP), therefore, the IMF that fixed more privatization without lacking investments. Are now okaying a higher rising taxes on the Republic’s citizens. This is done, while the economy is not strengthen, but with added external and internal loans. Therefore, the rise of GDP and use of loans, as well as repayments on those loans will sooner or later hurt the economy. Even with the rise of taxes. This will be start of vicious cycle where the state is issuing loans and taxes, while the revenue is used to repay loans, not development. It is basically. But before I go into the deep of the part of the troubling take from the World Bank. Let me just show you quickly the result of the SAP and their advice there.

The studies also make it clear that for SAP-type policies to have a chance of success, certain preconditions are necessary. The public sector had certain social responsibilities that the current framework has pushed it out of but without “a proper handing over” to the private sector. The assumption and hope were that the market would fill the gap left by the retreating state. Clearly this has not happened. There is therefore need for Government either to retain certain key social sectors, or only hand them over to the private sector only when the latter is ready to effectively take them over. Clearly non-profit making aspects of social responsibility cannot and do not get taken over by the private sector. For poverty to be reduced there are certain social responsibilities or even whole sectors that can only effectively be handled by the public sector. Welfare systems and subsidies to farmers in the developed world attest to the need for the retention of these key areas by the public sector. Therefore a policy that proscribes such a hand-over must also ensure that it is done in a verifiable manner so that the private sector can be held to account. Civil society has in the past tried to fill the gap but this has been done in an ad hoc manner” (Kevin Akoyi Makokha – ‘STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PARTICIPATORY REVIEW INITIATIVE (SAPRI) – UGANDA COUNTRY REPORT: A synthesis of the Four SAPRI Studies’ September 2001).

So, when the last system from the World Bank and IMF was introduced the system and the government wasn’t ready to privatize, however, that didn’t stop them or the government to do so. Especially since the funds and loans at the time came with the hitch of doing so. Therefore, the troubles with the privatization and the lacking oversight is also partly because of these programs subsidized by these organizations. That is why the World Bank and IMF should be more careful professing what sort of thing would be genuine and sincere, since they have messed up before. It isn’t only the State House who has messed up, he has gotten help and followed the procedures of these mechanisms. If not, he wouldn’t be able to eat such vast amounts of donor funding in the past. This is well-known, but the lack of oversight, is because of the will of wanting to have control and a say in everything. That is why the letter from the President to Minister of Finance, is the reason for the new levied taxes. So, if you wonder why I have distrust to the World Bank and IMF, it is because of their history and that the public is paying for it, because their impact on the governments for the reasons. That these states should be guinea-pigs for the economy belief of trickling down economics, even as the results has begged differ if it really drips back into the system again. Which it doesn’t because the ones that gets a lot want to keep it and get some more. No dole it out to anyone they can find.

Here is what the World Bank stated today: “In the special section of the Update, the report analyses how Uganda could raise more domestic revenues to support its development. Uganda’s tax system is one of the most modern in the region, but revenue collections, at 14 percent of GDP, are low, and way below its tax potential. Tax avoidance and evasion, partly resulting from generous tax exemptions to investors, weak tax administration, and a large informal sector (now at 80 percent), pose challenges to increasing revenues. Up to 5 percent of GDP is lost annually in tax leakages. Personal income tax contributes roughly 18 percent of GDP compared to up to 40 percent in developed countries. VAT collections amount to 4 percent of GDP, but would rise to 6 percent if there were no exemptions. The report suggests that Uganda could widen its tax base by tapping into areas that are outside the tax net; applying tax instruments correctly and fairly; improving efficiency, transparency and accountability in tax administration; and delivering better public services” (World Bank – ‘Improving Taxation to Finance Uganda’s Development’ 15.05.2018).

Therefore, the World Bank likes the idea of adding more tax on the Mobile Money transactions and the movement of digital cash, as well as on Airtime and other needed things. The ones that hasn’t a bank-account or the ability to fund or even try to get a loans from the banking system. Are okayed by the World Bank as possible targets for taxes. This isn’t transparent, but making it more expensive to be poor, as the rates to transmit and the use mobile money will come. The companies whose use this method will bill the users, they will not take the hit. The same with all the traders and the importers of all the other items that was on the lists of the newly taxed items.

I doubt these new taxes will do any good, it will just be more funds for the elites, the NRM and the President to eat. They are not delivering government services with the trillions of shillings they are using now. They are billing up to their asses and spending rampant, without having the revenue. That is why the rising debts are there. Instead of living frugal and thinking of the future, the NRM and President Museveni are eating like there is no tomorrow!

State House, the President and the Cabinet are eating heavy, they are not delivering, they have no plans to do so. If so, they give locally when needed, but the lack of transparency and accountability, is the reason for missing funds. Recently even the documents from the GAVI Funds was taken from the Ministry of Health. Therefore, a government who cannot be trusted with funds giving donations to help the sick, how can we believe the tax put on Mobile Money will go to roads or teachers?

I doubt that, I am not that naive, this NRM has proven for 32 years, that they are eating and not caring. The World Bank can commend and praise. While I condemn, until they prove that they money are delivered to the schools, that the teachers have their salaries and the civil servants are properly paid. Not just hiring some random Cubans to fix the issues for a short time. That is not how to build a national health care system. That is how to mock the ones you already have. Peace.

Opinion: The Goblin’s family finally slapped by the state!

Since the November 2017 Coup in Harare, the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) has been friendly to the former President Robert Mugabe and his extended family. The ZANU-PF have let the family eat plenty have a giant package of money and also a big pension for the 37 year long presidency. Today, it is released a document telling, that the state is finally taking action against the family and their possession.

On the 16th March 2018 in the High Court of Harare, where Judge President Justice Chiweshe ordered eviction of Russel Goreraza, Grace Mugabe and Kennedy Fero. These three has lost in court, where they are now evicted from the properties of 409 Harare Drive, Pamona, Harare; 18 Cambridge Drive, Avondale, Harare; 75 King George, Avondale, Harare. All of these properties will go back to companies that owns the properties, since the Mugabe family has been squatting here.

This here is proof that the time has changed, this would never has happen in 2017, but it is in 2018. It might a proof that the President Emmerson Mnangagwa wants to show strength too, because of the blessings of National Patriotic Front and the support of the G-40 Members to the new party, before the up-coming elections. Therefore, the ruling regime want to show the former first family, that they are not untouchable anymore.

This here is vital if people been evicted or alleged crimes by the former first family, the can now petition the courts and get refunded for their hurt, even get their land and properties back. Who knows what more businesses, farms and other frauds the Mugabe family has done and could also lose if people petitioned it. When the state has been run by the family and cronies, they can now get it back and also see justice in these matters.

It is at least hope and proof that the Mugabe family is not untouchable, they can actually lose a court case and the petitioners has a chance. Last year, the courts would have dismissed or not given it merit even. Because Mugabe family good whatever they wanted and got away with it. Now the table has turned.

Mugabe family has been evicted from three properties, that is historic and a proof that time has changed. It is also a sign that the ZANU-PF plans to answer if the former President continues to cry havoc in the press. They will answer, because they will not show mercy, if the Mugabe creates drama. Peace.

Zimbabwe: Statement on Former President Mugabe (16.03.2018)

Opinion: Mugabe shouldn’t cry foul, he should enjoy his retirement!

Mugabe bitter at Mnangagwa’s “betrayal”. “On my side, I always had Mnangagwa. I brought (Mnangagwa) into govt. I never thought he whom I had nurtured, and whose life I had saved in prison when he was threatened with hanging, that one day he’d be the man that turned against me”. Mugabe: “I don’t hate Emmerson. I brought him into Government. But he must be proper. He is illegal.” He says he’s ready to speak to ED to correct things. “We don’t deserve it. Please we don’t deserve it.”. Mugabe offers to negotiate with Mnangagwa. “But I must be invited, properly invited for that discussion”” (Zim Media Review, 15.03.2018).

It is insulting to the people of the Republic of Zimbabwe. Where Robert Mugabe was President for 37 years. Where he run everything and left nothing behind. He touched everything and everyone. His decisions was made in his interests. He made it violent, he rigged himself into power and he used all the tricks in the book to stay in power. Suddenly in November 2017, the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) who ousted him with help of the army in coup. That is right, but he didn’t have a birthday to be on the throne until death.

It is rare when someone like him speaks of illegal, that former comrade Mugabe is blaming Mnangagwa, the man who rig himself again and again. The man who tarnished, nearly killed the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, the man who has detained activists, where up to 5,000 MDC activists are still not accounted for by the ZANU-PF government. Even months after the fall of Mugabe, there are enough human rights violations, enough skeletons in the closet to keep him in prison forever if anyone collected evidence and affidavits.

Mugabe should be careful with his mouth, since he is living lavish, he is still having his blue-roof and the family is still getting a hefty pension. That is more than President Canaan Banana. Therefore, sometimes, silence is the best medicine. If Mugabe was wise, he would haven’t said a god damn thing. Clearly, the former professor, has lost his marbles. Since he talks and says things that doesn’t make sense.

It is right that President Mnangagwa haven’t been directly elected, but was helped by the army. Which he has offered positions in the cabinet. Mugabe shouldn’t expect a discussion or invitation to negotiate anything, unless it is to get out of jail free card. I know Zimbabwe isn’t Monopoly, but that card shouldn’t have. His kind which has eaten on the state, used the police and army to oppress people for generations. Kept opposition in prison, if not they have exiled. Clearly, this man after his ousting, should pray to God for the Mercy, ZANU-PF and Mnangagwa showed him. They could have chopped his head-off, but instead they should dignity and mercy on the old man.

Mugabe, do yourself favor, retire with grace, really retire with Grace. Its time do much ado nothing. It’s time for him to be silent, not talk, he has done more than enough. Mugabe has hurt enough people and oppressed enough of them. His tricks is used, his time is spent and he is lucky he isn’t lingering in jail until his final day on earth.

So please, former comrade and liberator, the former dictator and almighty, please shut-up and just be retired. Not complain, because your lucky enough already, your blessed enough already and has still all your things. Other ones in your shoes was taken around town, flogged and then killed. You got off easy, maybe should consider that for a little moment. Peace.

Zimbabwe Election Commission: “Re: Notification of Existence of National Patriotic Front (NPF)” (13.03.2018)

Zimbabwe: Press Statement by the Zanu PF Secretary for Information and Publicity Cde. J.K. Moyo on the Ocassion of the Extraordinary Session of the Politiburo (14.03.2018)

Zimbabwe: NPF – “Unconstitutional Attacks on President Robert Mugabe Must Stop” (13.03.2018)

The Zanu-PF is ready to pump up the image of the Mnangagwa Family: The First person is the First Lady!

The Zimbabwean state media is preparing to celebrate the First Lady Auxilla Mnangagwa, in the same fashion as it did with Grace Mugabe. The Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), is working on the same sort of actions as it did in the 37 years under Robert Mugabe. The difference now is that the leaders is Emmerson Mnangagwa, the husband of Auxilla. That is why this is important, since the watershed moment of the bloodless coup in November 2017. The ruling regime is planning similar acts as it did before.

Now on the 8th March 2018, Advertising Media Association (ADMA) sent a letter out, where they are planning a “First Lady Cde Auxilla Mnangagwa Birthday Celebration Supplement” that is coming out on the 25th March 2018. This is making a supplement to Sunday Mail and Sunday News. If it is for them or for the Herald, The Chronicle, Kwayedza, Umthunywa, H. Metro, Business Weekly, B Metro and Southern Times. All of these will have something that is celebrating Auxilla.

If you see now, the state and media houses connected are starting to celebrate and use the Mnangagwa family, in the same significance as it did to Mugabe. This should be found worrying, since it creates the control of the family and their leadership. To deliver Congratulatory Messages, also explain why they are creating the same narrative as they did with the first family of Mugabe. Like in 2017, the Zimbabwe Media spread the news of the “loving mother” on Grace’s birthday, that was on 23rd July 2017. Then one of the papers dropped a 12 page supplement.

Therefore, the lines between Mnangagwa and Mugabe is stopping, the changes are just the name on the ballot-box. The rest is more of the same, as the papers are preparing for praise, to get the State Owned Enterprises and Government institutions to praise the new First Lady. Just alike the ones coming last year in July. Now it might something alike on the 25th March, a supplementary piece in honor of Auxilla.

So, if you believe the Lacoste, the Zanu-PF really changed it didn’t. Just the head. Nothing else, though some more military men in the positions and the military has more power. Not like that is good, but that is the reality.

Now they are preparing to build the legacy, the fancy narratives and the image of the glorious first family and their adventures. It is really gearing up. Now with the birthday of the First Lady. They are really making her image triumphant, make the first family living legends. Such, as they built everything around the Mugabe’s family at their time of reign. Peace.

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