Opinion: The GoU needs an additional 3 trillion shilling to cover for a shortfall only lasting for 38 days..

“The government has tabled loan requests of up to UGX 3 trillion to finance the remaining days of the Financial Year 2023- 2024. However, legislators are questioning why the government is choosing to use Kenyan street money lender Amarog Capital Limited over established financial institutions” (NBS Television, 24.05.2023).

I remember a little time ago when the National Resistance Movement and their apologists was asking for financial education or if Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine knew how “fiscal responsibility” worked. That is a long forgotten time, because the reckless spending is a habit.

The Government of Uganda, the NRM is now adding more public debt and they are not doing it from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) or any other multi-national financial institution. No, they seeking lone from another sort of institution. Meaning the terms, the conditions and the possible interest rates might be worse. Secondly, there will be no relief or no sort of awaiting maturity of the loan either. Meaning it is possible that the burn-rate and the responsibility of repayment comes “sooner” than “later”.

It is surely showing how badly things are operating. Not that his is anything new. We know the State is misusing funds and lacks good oversight. There is a reason why so much funds are ending up missing or misappropriated. That for a reason and done on purpose.

Money doesn’t have owners, but it has spenders said a fictional character in the Wire called Omar Little. His so damn right about it too. The State doesn’t expenditure but a vast money-pit. It can invent money and it can also borrow money without any consideration of the future. The domestic revenue isn’t growing, but the government debt is. The deficit financing is filled with burdens and problems ahead. This is a self-inflicted wound and sooner or later it will cripple the whole economy. Because, the state is borrowing not to build fancy institutions or industries, no it borrows to function it’s day-to-day operations. That’s what it does and the additional fees will pile up. There is no promise that the creditors will be forgiving or concerned about the nation. No, when the Republic starts to default. The creditors will take assets and future liabilities, which will generate them some revenue. While the state loses vital infrastructure and resources, which is bound by agreements and by loan deals made long ago.

That’s why an additional 3 trillion shillings for merely a month is a travesty. It is a waste of funds. Not only that the state needs this before the next Financial Year of 2023/24. That they are doing it and so blatantly. They are just seeking “free” money to spend like drunk sailors…

Seriously, this is messed up. They are granting themselves a lot of money and it has no sort of transparency behind it. That’s why it’s easy money and they hope the lenders don’t mind the mismanagement and lack of accountability. It is just the game the NRM and the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development does. We have seen it countless of times before and the reasons for it is ridiculous. The manner of paying additional electricity at the State House or get more classified budgets for the State House and the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF). That’s just what they do and it’s getting old.

Deficit financing is never a good idea. It is an evil cycle and sooner or later the credit will run out. The old loans will default and no one wants to carry the load for you. Then the whole house of cards fails and the markets crash. That is just a matter of time and the state continue like this… unless they have a secret kryptonite to destroy the ageing debts. Peace.

Opinion: Mzee isn’t a voice of reason…

“Many of the people who are being urged to be patient for two years are buckling under the weight of a very high cost of living. Most of them can hardly put a decent meal on the table or meet the costs of education, healthcare, utilities and rent. It must, therefore, hurt that provisions are being made for a makeover of the President’s wardrobe when so many people are really struggling. Parliament has not listened to the voices of the masses. This, therefore, calls for the intervention of the person for whom we are providing; he does not need the provisions. Only his voice can help end such wasteful expenditure” (Daily Monitor – Editorial – ‘Museveni’s voice required to end wasteful expenditure’ 21.05.2023).

I don’t know what the Editor of Daily Monitor thought when he or she wrote today’s piece. However, to say it is utter garbage is just a mere fact. The ideals and the thought that President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni would be the voice of reason in 2023 is absurd.

To believe that a man who has built a vast entourage, duplicated institutions and created a bloated government. Will ever… ever ever… be concerned about public expenditure. A man who needs confidential budget post and lack of oversight. A man who spends money like no tomorrow and hope that someone else will capture the fiscal shortfall. That he can either get a donor or a loan to cover the deficits.

Therefore, reading this text… how naive are you? Have you seen how many districts that has been created since 1986? Have you seen how many MPs that been added in the recent years?

Or have you missed that or isn’t obvious to the fact. It isn’t connected and part of the plot. That a man has created government units, institutions and commissions that are cross-checking each other. While his busy eating, investing and ensuring the future of his own grand-kids. Seriously, the proof is in the pudding.

That’s why the State House and the Office of the President got vast funds. This is why the UPDF and Ministry of Defence has massive budgets. That’s why the Police Force is well funded. Because, if the security detail isn’t paid and isn’t in order. Well, then the grand corruption and the heist of the state cannot continue on the “low”. It is low hanging fruits, but certainly edible.

“Only his voice can help end such wasteful expenditure” (Daily Monitor, 21.05.2023).

He will come with words of fire and fury, but it won’t amount to anything. That’s why we are seeing thieves getting away, but the pickpockets are lingering behind bars. The President knows and he knows of various of schemes. He knows who is “investing” and who is “benefiting”. It is his system after all. Therefore, believing this man will be a reasonable dude in 2023… Please… get your mind correct. Please and do it fast.

Enough nonsense. The 1986 brigade got enough “yes-men” and paid microphones to defend its cause. I didn’t think I would see that in the Daily Monitor. However, that is where we are. This piece belong in the New Vision. Not in the Daily Monitor… Peace.

Opinion: Mzee’s reckless spending spree

The Minority Report of the National Budget for 2023/24 is out. Not that it’s shocking or anything. It is just showing how the President and his inner-circle is spending money like there is no tomorrow. While the state is busy borrowing funds and lacking domestic revenue. You would think the President who often speaks of moderation and use within your means would live within those words.

Alas, that is not the case. The President has a massive portfolio. The Office of the President and the State House are two bloated out units. They are Ministries in themselves and has far out reach of the buildings, which they are supposed to reside.

Yes, the State House isn’t only functioning as a residence and as a ceremonial grounds. No, the Office of the President and the State House budgets is an inner-cabinet in itself. It is a wild beast that breeds on everyone else. That’s why the billions upon billions of shillings are spent there.

That’s why Museveni needs vast budgets for vehicles, furnitures and clothes. He doesn’t need to beg and his salary is maybe “scraps” but the budgets for his office or home is lavish. The President can live like a King on those terms. People can defend and say this is well spent resources.

I am sure the Senior Presidential Advisors and the Units of the State House appreciate the spending. They are benefiting for the wealth and usage of funds. Also with the “classified” and “donations” budgets… the President has two secret ways of fund himself and his closest associates. Because, these funds won’t be traced and can be used as he deems fit.

The Office of the President is getting 250 billion shillings in the budget year. While the State House is getting 454 billion shillings. With those two major budget post the President is spending around 700 billion shillings and that’s before the Supplementary Budgets, which we knows goes in his direction. There is always a shortfall and lack of funds, which just have to be covered in the calendar year.

Therefore, even if Museveni and his inner-circle is budgeted to get 700 billion shillings. We know they eventually would need more. Either to buy a helicopter, a plane or even pay for Muhoozi’s adventures. God knows where the money goes, but millions of shillings doesn’t go to upgrade the President’s wardrobe. His wearing the same jackets, fatigue and shirts we have seen for years. The old man isn’t a fashionista.

We know he can be on a spending spree, because he has 38 billion to the Office of the President as classified and another 120 billion to the State House. Meaning out of the 700 billions in total, there is around a 150 billions he has no oversight or no need to account for. It is all secret and he can spend where-ever he deems fit.

That should boggle your mind. The President has such a money pit and such a vast enterprise. Yes, we know he has 100s of Presidential Advisors and a huge team at the State House. His broaden the mandate and the workplace. However, spending 700 billions on it… in just one year. It is just ridiculous.

Especially coming from a man who speaks of moderation and speaks of living within the means. He is living large on the public’s dime and he clearly doesn’t care. This is his throne and the citizens got to pay for his party. Peace.

Nigeria: Center for Fiscal Transparency and Integrity Watch – Center Expresses Concern Over Country’s Fiscal Condition, Calls for Suspension of Further Borrowing for Consumption (19.04.2023)

Ghana: National Democratic Congress (NDC) – NDC Reaffirms its Position on the need for the President to Downsize the Government in the Wake of Parliament’s Approval of New Ministerial Nominees (25.03.2023)

Ghana: Announcement by Ken Ofori-Atta – Ghana’s Domestic Debt Exchange (04.12.2022)

Ghana: Nortern Regional Youth Network – Press Statement released by the Northern Regional Youth Network on the 2023 Budget Statement by the Finance Minister (24.11.2022)

Opinion: 2 Trillion shillings is suddenly needed to cover the deficit

A letter dated to the 7^th November 2022 by the Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, Matia Kasaija was leaked titled “Request for Proposal to Finance the Government of Uganda Budget for the FY 2022/23”. In that letter, the Minister is specifying the needs to borrow €500 million euros. When you convert this to Ugandan Shillings it ends up being 1,957,704,000,000 or about UGX 2 Trillion Shillings. That’s a lot of money that the Government and the MoFPED needs to borrow.

This is the definition of deficit financing. The cycle of bad loans in combination of lacking domestic revenue. The only way to be able to cough up funds for the short-fall in the short-term is to add additional loans. So, the cycle continues, the state take one loan after another. Loans upon loans to cover for the old loans. While also borrowing more money to be able pay expenditure and government expenses.

That’s why the idea that the MoFPED is asking for this now isn’t surreal. It is the bleak reality and the misfortune of a bloated government. The government has to many entities, to many representatives and a local government structure, which is too expensive. Expensive in the sense, that the government cannot foot the bills and don’t have the revenue to carry the expenses. That is living lavish and someone else is picking up the tab.

We already know the state is running out of loss, when the budget was forecasted with a huge leap of faith that grants and such would cover about 40% of the budget. That is telling and it’s really showing the lack of it when the state this early in the Financial Year needs another 2 trillion shillings loans to cover it’s expenses.

The MoFPED wouldn’t call for this loan and at these levels… if they didn’t know there was a short-fall or a lack funds. There is deficit and that’s not shocking. It is just worrying that it’s happening at this extent and is so normalized. While we are seeing the 11^th Parliament is following where the 10^th Parliament left off. Accepting loans after loans on development projects and other additional expenses, which only creates a huger debt-burden down the road. These roads or infrastructure projects has to be covered and they are not money generating enterprises. Therefore, the cost of doing it will be ten-fold in the long run. Especially, when you don’t have money for the upkeep or the ones doing the day-to-day works on it.

That’s why you know the latest revelation of this loan is just concerning. It is not a winning bargain, but a proof of mismanaged and lacking progress. When the state cannot sustain itself or be able to get a tax-base to cover these expenses. That’s because the state is wasting funds on paying for old debts and interests, which are far over the grace-period. Peace.

Opinion: Sunak’s mixed cabinet…

“I will unite our country, not with words, but with action. I will work day in and day out to deliver for you. This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level” – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (25.10.2022).

The Prime Minister with his announced cabinet reshuffle is really re-issuing some known faces from Boris Johnson and giving way to some of the appointees of Liz Truss. This isn’t a sign of a new era or a change towards reform. No, this is a continuation of the latter years and not much significant changes either.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn’t doing anyone any real favours here. Appoint the likes of Dominic Raab and Michael Gove. Neither is the likes of Therese Coffey or Suella Braverman choices of reason. The pick of Penny Mourdaunt seems just to buy peace, as she was his competition for the office in the first place. Others are re-appointments or re-shuffling into new positions. The one who has been everywhere this it seems, Nadhim Zahawi. That just shows it all and the public should understand the game now.

PM Sunak is just trying to find the sweet spot between the ERG, the Boris clique and the alliance around Truss. Just so he has everyone covered and within his reach. That will be tricky position and it won’t be easy to pull off. No, he has to be on the proximity of all these groups and still able to play ball. If he has shortcomings or isn’t finding the right path. There will be resignation and claims that he differs from the “mandate” and what the Tories was “elected to do”. That will be the end-game here.

Heck, what is striking that Sunak has even appointed people who was in the cabinet of Theresa May. He is re-appointing and using old heads who haven’t made things better. That’s the likes of Jeremy Hunt, who also was appointed in the last minute of Truss cabinet too. Therefore, Sunak is really just trying to play with everyone.

While his only appointing a few loyalists of himself too. Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem to be many of these. That means that the ones around him are people who can turn on him quickly. The moment the buck stops and the knives are out… they will turn on him and bury him like they did the predecessors.

Prime Minister Sunak promised a government of integrity, professionalism and accountability… while he has chosen similar characters and MPs into cabinet, which has shown the opposite. The PM has taken in people who has broke the ministerial code and haven’t valued the Nolan principals either.

The PM has to prove his words, but the appointed ministers proves these words was all fluff. It was for publicity, but he appointed the opposite to unite the party. He didn’t appoint these ones to be more professional or show integrity.

Who appoints Braverman and Gove for integrity? Who appoints Raab for professionalism?

Well, this cabinet is just the Tories best-of-hits… and it’s not looking good. It is just the first day, but it’s not looking good for Sunak. Who isn’t changing tune, but is just another one. Peace.

Opinion: Sunak have no wiggle-room to fail

The ones that is rising up in hopes and grabbing their chair of joy. I would say your turning the tables a bit to fast. People should remember the time that Rishi Sunak, one of the wealthiest men in the United Kingdom was the Chancellor. He held that role for some time and had the ability to shift economic policies. That’s why this period has to be considered now that his officially the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

I don’t want any ill for the man. This is his moment of prestige and prominence. He is taking over from a hectic turmoil of Truss and the falling pendulum of Boris Johnson. All the things that the Tories has done for 12 years and the shifts of policies are now rearing it’s ugly head. That’s not Sunak’s fault, but he was a part of it. He had plenty of time to make a difference, but he chose to align and work within those perimeters.

That’s why as his becoming the Leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister. This is happening with the blessing of the Tories MPs and not the electorate. His the third PM of the 2022. Previously in the year he lost the campaign to Truss and now he succeeded the second time. Meaning his resilience and will to get there pushed him over the finish-line.

Because of that backdrop, I dropping a few breadcrumbs from the outlook on his term. The people he picks or appoints in cabinet will be detrimental and show his real alliances. Just like Truss chose to be aligned with ERG group of MPs. The same will be important to follow with Rishi.

That’s why these texts are important!

“When it comes to tax and spend, Rishi Sunak is proposing nothing beyond current government policy in the short term – unsurprisingly, given that he set these policies as Chancellor. We therefore know a lot about what we would get under his premiership, at least initially, without his having to say much. We would have tax heading towards its highest sustained level in 70 years as a share of national income, though with an intention to bring taxes down once he has ‘gripped inflation’” (…) “There would be some headroom against the government’s fiscal targets – including the target of taxes covering all day-to-day spending by 2024-25 – though not enough to allow the Chancellor to rest easy, given the degree of economic turbulence and uncertainty. In the longer term, Mr Sunak has been clear that he does wish to cut taxes, but not until inflation has fallen back” (Stuart Adam Robert Joyce Isabel Stockton Tom Waters and Ben Zaranko – ‘ Tax and spending policies of Conservative leadership contenders’ 21.07.2022, The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)).

“The hike and the controversial loan-not-loan to deal with rising energy prices is “Treasury’s revenge for profligacy,” said another senior MP. But for many, it also highlights the line between good politics and good economics. If you hurt people in their pocket, it’s unlikely they are going to reward you at the polls. “The economic problems are starting to stick to him,” says another senior backbencher. “I think we are past peak Rishi.”” (Catherine Neilan – ‘’Past peak Rishi’: Why Conservative support is ebbing from Sunak as favourite to replace Boris Johnson’ 14.02.2022, Business Insider).

“Whether Sunak has penned a note for his successor quipping that the money is all gone remains to be seen. He undoubtedly should. The Chancellor leaves a worse legacy than perhaps any predecessor of modern times. Inflation is running at nine per cent. The trade deficit has blown out to a mind-boggling eight per cent of GDP. The pound is tanking on the currency markets, real wages are collapsing, strikes are rampant, and the economy is heading for a recession. It is possible that Tony Barber, Edward Heath’s Chancellor of the early 1970s, left the nation’s finances in a worse state. But even that is debatable” (Matthew Lynn – ‘Rishi Sunak won’t be missed as Chancellor’ 05.07.2022, The Spectator).

There are certain aspects here that will key for the future. It is not like Sunak isn’t in favour of tax-cuts as well. That was the downfall of Truss and Kwateng. Certainly and hopefully he doesn’t usher in another “biscotti”. Who knows if his naive enough to do so?

What is striking is that his time as a Chancellor bought him enough peace in Westminster, but not across the Kingdom. Neither does he have the confidence or the grand support as other Prime Ministers. There is already calling for a snap election or a General Election. Since, the coronation of Sunak will be questioned. He don’t have a mandate or a popular vote behind him. His just a MP crowned because the two previous PM’s failed miserably.

Now as PM Rishi Sunak has not only to prove himself and his worth. Truss has broken the economy and the financial market. The Truss cabinet created worse for pensioners, gilt-markets and the mortgages, as the energy crisis is growing ahead of winter. Therefore, the Prime Minister has to stand tall and isn’t having it easy. That with the costs and burdens of Brexit will be put on him. The ramifications of that in combination of the downturn after the lockdowns and the biscotti “mini-budget” will linger over his head. There is no soft landing or time for a waiting period. He has to carry the weight and pick the right aides to find a way out of this.

As PM Sunak will not have the time or the ability to fail. We see how that cost Truss. He cannot do the same and risk it on the altar of financial speculations. That would again create prolonged agony and further the downfall of the financial market. The Tories has already shown how arrogant or ignorant of the plights of the general public. Now, one of the wealthiest men of the Kingdom has to prove that he cares and have the answers.

Time will tell if he does. It won’t be easy and he has to chose wisely. In the beginning he cannot risk or take gamble. If he does… he can easily follow Truss and be a short-term PM without a legacy worth clinging on too. Peace.