The Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali is the perfection of a warlord. He thrives on it and that’s how he gets adrenalin. Because, nothing else seems to work in the Republic. The man has to send soldiers, tanks and drones to any location. Just to prove a point and hope that the deceased was someone he needed to finish off.
It is tragic and sad… but here we are… a man who has fought in nearly every region of his Republic. A man who has had two major conflicts within in Tigray and Amhara. Who has issued skirmishes and monopolized state brutality in Oromia and Ogaden. That man seems to have a new conflict in sight.
Just as the bloodshed of Tigray, Amhara, Oromia or Ogaden isn’t enough. He needs another war. This time with yet another former ally, this time Asmara and Eritrea. It is supposed to be about connectivity and rights for ports. He says it is about not being landlocked and having access to the Red Sea. However, for all we know… that could be bogus. Just like the excuses he had for invading and destroying Tigray.
Abiy can use any reason or excuse to get it his way. He don’t mind burying people alive and seeing their villages burn. As long as he plays King and is crowned like one. That is all he needs while the bullets fly and people die. It is just who he is…
Abiy is now striking back at Afewerki. The ally who fought and used their military in the Tigray region. The ones who decided not to partake or be a part of the conflict of Amhara region. It might be a reason for why Abiy wants to retaliate. He thought the Eritrean army would be on his side no matter what, but apparently they have some boundaries too. The Eritrean wanted to avenge and destroy the TPLF. That’s why they joined in war and they felt betrayed by the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. Therefore, there is petty reasons if any party needs any.
These two nations has an Algiers Agreement from 12th December 2000, one vital provision in that agreement says this: “The parties shall permanently terminate military hostilities between themselves. Each party shall refrain from the threat or use of force against the other” (Algiers, 2000).
We have seen that this sort of been violated in the Tigray conflict, though not directly at Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) but it was used against Ethiopian civilians or Tigray Defence Force (TDF). Meaning the Eritrean army did violate the terms here, but doing so in coordination of the Ethiopian allies in Addis Ababa.
We know the parties has had skirmishes and such over Badme. That has been a part of the Tigray region, which Eritrea has claimed it belong too. However, this haven’t been settled and been a torn between the nations. While seemingly the peace-offering and secret agreement between Abiy and Afewerki did wonders.
Now just mere years after that and the dust has settled. The wars are taken a toll and the leaders of Addis Ababa needs another enemy. Not like Abiy haven’t created enough victims and enemies within over the years. He has certainly plenty who are scorned and who has lost their loved ones. Just so the Prime Minister could prove a point and be the almighty of the nation.
Now, the guns are turning against Asmara. It is done for “Afar Unity” or over Assab Port. Regardless of the excuse. It will be done because Abiy wants another victory and be great. He has suffered losses and humiliation by never being able to actually win a conflict. The PM is just losing and not winning. He gotten to weaken the TPLF and the Regional Government there… but they are still not up to terms or close associates of any kind. Just temporary friends in the quagmire that the PM has created.
We are now here… Afar region paid a price in the Tigray war. So, did Amhara and the Amhara are now former allies turned enemies. In the midst of that internal war. The PM is busy scheming his next move. Just like he was never able to end the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). He will not be able to finish of FANO or the Amhara Popular Front (APF). These are here to stay and got popular support in their region. Therefore, he can either reconcile to their demands or continue the battle. Alas, there within is the problem. Abiy cannot afford to be weak or settle. That will be his loss.
That’s why it’s easier to call and order another conflict. Wage another war and over either land, sea or “unity”. Even if the “unity” of a ethnic group is a lie. That is just a pawn and they didn’t get much help or support in the Tigray war. No, they got burned, tested and was on the frontline. While Abiy waited to the last minute to give support or send troops to help out. That’s how he has done it and now he hopes their cause can give him enough manpower or troops to fight Eritrea.
It is bonkers and will be his downfall. This war will damage Abiy and be the final straw. He will not have anywhere to turn and the guns will be blazing around him. It will end up in mutiny and a full fledge crisis. The economy will crash and he will have nowhere to go.
Abiy will risk it all and gain nothing. It is a futile enterprise and he doesn’t have what it takes. It doesn’t matter if the Eritrean army is weak or without modern equipment. The ENDF and allies will fight on their turf and their homeland. If the ENDF was struggling in Tigray. Well, they will fight a fierce combats in Eritrea. The Red Sea will be far away and the rivers of blood will be close.
There will be a bloodshed and by how Abiy is governing. Every corner of the Republic and everywhere surrounding him. There has to be conflict and he has ensure there is a lost generation. Who either got lost in battle or lost in the cross-fire. Peace.
MinBane 