Opinion: Afwerki wants it both ways…

“I have no intention of interfering in this matter despite the disinformation campaign going on trying to disrupt the process of peace in Ethiopia” (…) “You talk about withdrawal or no withdrawal (of Eritrean forces), and we say this is nonsense. Why are we bothered if Eritrean troops were there or not there?” (…) “Everybody talking about human rights violations (by Eritrean forces), rape, looting, this is a fantasy in the minds of those who own this factory that I call a factory of fabricating misinformation” – President Isaias Afwerki (09.02.2022).

A President for Life without elections, political opposition or any sort of accountability. He is the man to talk about responsibility and disinformation. When he himself controls every word about himself and whatever that is reported in the State of Eritrea. Shabait will only write favourably about him and his reign. Even where there is no proof of positive vibes or reforms. However, that doesn’t matter… as long as President Isaias Afwerki is crowned King.

No one should be surprised that Afwerki is blaming others for his own gains. That is what he does and he has tried to settle old grudges by going to war. The PIA or the President of Eritrea have tried to end the nemesis and old enemies of Tigray to no avail. He has retaliated and he has done what he could to avenge the past. However, as part of the Tripartite Alliance to tear Tigray apart isn’t over.

That’s why he has talked in Kenya and in a separate interview on Eri-TV where he has called it the proxy war of the United States of America. Like the TPLF wasn’t attacking Asmara in self-defence, as the borders of the region was filled with armies prepared to invade in November 2020. We are just supposed to forget that and not know the initial preparation, as a part of the peace-agreement, which is kept secret. That is why for some of us… the agreement made between Abiy and Afwerki seems like a war-pact. When you see what happened after the 2018 “peace” agreement.

It isn’t hard to believe that Afwerki wants to distort and downplay the role his armies and allies played in Tigray. That’s what his doing in the retorts in Kenya and in the interview on Eri-TV. He wants to be righteous and be a reasonable man. Even when his totally wrong and knows the acts of his armies within Ethiopia. They are there on accord with the ruling regime and the sovereign allowed it.

Still, the Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) didn’t come in peace, and it wasn’t intended to be this way. It was a war that was to be fought in darkness and create shallow graves of the ones who defied Addis Ababa and Asmara. That was the gist of this, the manner of which Afwerki got to retaliate and revenge Mekelle for past transgressions. That’s why this is personal to him, and he got to loot the ones who fought against him.

President Afwerki is willing to lie about it all and disregard anyone else. That’s why his like this and speaks about in this manner. It is all to create an alternative perception and make it seems differently. However, the reports and the proof of their actions in Tigray is there. Anyone would be naïve to think otherwise. That the men and the people who participated, ordered and sanctioned the atrocities would say it openly. Afwerki wants a clean-slate and act like the EDF wasn’t part of it. Alas, make it seem like they only participated in it in self-defence, which isn’t true. The Tripartite Alliance prepared, planned and enforced this war. That’s why he wants the spot-light on the victims and blame for their demise. Peace.

Ethiopia: The UNOPS and World Bank funds will not go to the Tigray region… [if we have learned anything from previous history]

“Addis Ababa, July 12, 2022 (FBC) –Ethiopia has signed a third-party implementation agreement with the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) for the implementation of the World Bank-financed recovery project in Tigray. According to the Ministry of Finance, the agreement was signed today by Ahmed Shide, Ethiopia’s Minister of Finance and Werknesh Mekonen, representing the UNOPS. The project is part of the government’s national recovery program financed by the World Bank with the name Response-Recovery-Resilience for Conflict-Affected Communities in Ethiopia project” (Fana Broadcasting Compnay – ‘Ethiopia, UNOPS Sign Agreement For Implementation Of Recovery Project In Tigray’ 12.07.2022).

It is hard to believe that the World Bank and UNOPS wants to sign an agreement with the Federal Government based in Addis Ababa. It is like the World Bank and UNOPS haven’t followed the acts of Addis Ababa and the regime itself. This isn’t the first rodeo and they should have known better. These funds will most likely not get to the ones in need in Tigray region. Neither will there be a will to implement it.

The Prosperity Party, the former consolidated parties from the former party coalition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which left out the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Who didn’t want to participate and be part of the new federal or national party. Therefore, the war in Tigray happened after long time of mistrust and after a local government election in September 2020. Which was just two months ahead of the start of the “Operation Law Enforcement” or prolonged warfare in Tigray. Parts of Tigray is still invaded and controlled by the Tripartite Alliance like the Western Tigray. While the Humanitarian Truce haven’t accordingly allowed humanitarian assistance to levels of need. That’s why 13 million people in the Northern Ethiopia is in a dire need of food security. Secondly, that is a man-made famine and created by the blockade, which has been a willed policy.

That’s why it’s striking that the World Bank and UNOPS signs off to this agreement. The Addis Ababa government have blocked the utilities, frozen banking and communications to the Tigray region. There was years and still no news of government funding to the regional government of Tigray. That will mean that there been no funds from Addis Ababa to Mekelle.

This was reported from 2018 to 2020 that the Regional Government of Tigray didn’t receive funds from the Federal Government. Secondly, the World Bank themselves financed a development project called: “Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)”. It was reported that the FDRE got $66m USD to PSNP designated to Tigray in September 2020, but was blocked from the House of Federation (HoF). Therefore, with this knowledge… will the same happen again?

So, reading that the World Bank is funding another project and the RRRCAC today. It seems like a nightmare. These funds will not help Tigray… if so only parts of it. This is a life-line to the Addis Ababa government. They are using the conflict to replenish funds and the World Bank is willing to fund them. The state is in disarray… and there is so many regions that is bleeding. The Tigray region is war-torn and in a man-made famine.

The Federal Government have been punishing Tigray region continuously… just as this agreement was signed. There was reports of thousands of ethnic Tigrayans arrested for no other reason their ethnicity. That’s why I have hard time believing these funds will go to help or redevelop Tigray. The current leadership rather wants Tigray to burn or die. That’s their policy and how they worked over the last few years. Have a hard time that will change over night.

That will be lie. Just like all the meetings promising humanitarian assistance and opening of besieged region totally to humanitarian organizations. Something that is yet to happen, even when millions are possibly starving or lacking food security. Therefore, this news is tragic. That the World Bank and UNOPS are duped by the leaders of Addis Ababa. Peace.

Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Front/Army (OLF/A) – Amhara Forces Renewed Attacks Against Wollo Oromo Community (11.07.2022)

Ethiopia: There is no hope left – Only war and conflict in the eyes of the PM

“It is an enemy that says you can’t plant trees while people are dying, let’s open a new page in summer, let’s wear green Ethiopia” (…) “Those who complain ‘how can you prioritize planting trees when people are dying?’ are our enemies. Don’t listen to them. We will keep planting trees. We will even plant trees where people are buried, at least their corpse will get some shade” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (07.07.2022).

The ones reading the commentaries and the statements made after the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali addressed the House of Federation. Should be aware… that this man certainly intends to more conflict. This man isn’t done with warfare or consolidating power with the usage of force. The words and what he said today. Is the words of a tyrant and bloody warlord. Not that’s is shocking, but that he was able to entertain to the world the ideals of a man of peace. That is beyond me… because the Colonel and former spy is clearly intending to pursuit war.

Because, it is not inspiring when he utters words like these:

“First is to cause conflict between Oromo and Amhara, second is to cause conflict with Amhara, third is to cause conflict among Oromo, fourth is to cause conflict in Afar and Somalis, fifth is to cause conflicts between Sidama and Wolayta, and on the other hand they are trying to cause conflict between Amhara and Oromo, the other is to cause conflict amongst Muslims and Christians” (Abiy, 07.07.2022).

A man that came into office to clear out the mischief and the ethnic tensions. However, over the years with him in office. Well, things has gotten worse and it’s spiralling out of hand. That’s because his inflicting more harm. The usage of state sponsored violence and muffling media to spread his information. Which isn’t the truth, but the truth he wants everyone to believe. This is why his blaming others for causing conflict. When his the guy that orders the mass-murders, massacres and use of force in the name of law and order.

Not that this is inspiring either:

“Everyday 300 to 400 people killed in Ethiopia is nothing compared to how many get killed every minute in western countries” (Abiy, 07.07.2022).

He is speaking of the gun-violence and the mass-killings of lone gun-men in the United States of America, which is a problem that Washington D.C. should deal with. However, Addis Ababa cannot get away with their steady increase in state violence and state sponsored massacres, which is why there is an outcry. The murders and vast amount of extra judicial killings should worry anyone. It doesn’t help to point a finger elsewhere. When it’s burning in your own neighbourhood. That is just trying to make it a legality and reasoning of all killing is cool, because your brother from another does the same. Well, both are wrong, and one type of wrong doesn’t make another wrong right.

It doesn’t help that is some of the points from his speech too:

“– It is good to try and talk about peace process in order to dry the enemy’s plot from its source and to solve the problem permanently. The success of the peace process will be seen in process.

– The fact that TPLF is a terrorist and there is no need for peace talks with the group will not bring the peace we want. Derg always negotiated with Shabiya and TPLF.

– Powers in war always talk; peace talks and negotiations are done to get profit from negotiations” (Abiy, 07.07.2022).

When you are thinking like this, you are just calculating risks and ensuring your course of action. This shows there is no real desire for peace, but only postponing more direct warfare in the Tigray region. Certainly, since they are busy with their “final offensive” in Oromia against the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which was a main enemy of the state in the speech. It just shows the sentiment. These are just quotes and snippets. I am pretty sure, if you got to read a whole transcript of his address and done so in English. It would have shaken your spine. Because, just these few things makes me worried.

There is no hope in this man. His just finding reasons to retaliate, retort to more violence and further the wars of the republic. This man will not usher in peace. He will ensure all of his enemies are dead and find a way to execute that. So, that their corpses can be under shade of the trees planted in his era. Peace.

Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Front/Army (OLF/A) – The OLF-OLA Condemns the Killing of Civilians by Abiy’s Security Personnel (05.07.2022)

Ethiopia: 3 days after government security forces takes over the territory – A massacre hits Qellem Wollega…

“The Shene group that has escaped from the stick that the security forces use is causing danger to the citizens of West Wollega. In Oromia region, people found in Qelem Wollega zone have been killed. We are saddened by the suffering that happened to our citizens, we will follow this terrorist group to the end and remove it from our people. Shane Dulla group who escaped from security forces are fleeing from Wollega Dhiya people. The last thing has been done on the citizens of Oromia region, Qellem Wollega. We will remove this terrorist group with our people till the end” (Abiy Ahmed Ali, 04.07.2022).

It is tragic and sad, but at the same time very interesting how things are moving. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and Oromia Regional Special Forces are currently operating in the final offensive against the Oromo Liberation Army/Front (OLA/OLF) which they nickname “Shane”. However, this militia had officially lost the territories of which the state claims or alleged behind the massacre there. That’s weird and seems inaccurate. Unless, the state lied about having control 3 days before…

The ENDF and allies was boosting and used the Ethiopian Government Communications Services to spread the statement of the takeover of the territories in the Oromia region. The OLF/OLA could easily have retreated and given it up. As they tend to stretch their operations and later return to combat elsewhere. Therefore, it it likely that the OLF/OLA could cease the control and give way to a far superior organization. Which is now using all their manpower and brigades to combat them. We know the state wants to end the OLF/OLA in Oromia. That’s why the Federal Government promised a “Final Offensive”.

In that regard, the BBC report on the area seems plausible:

“The government announced that the districts in western Oromia are under the control of the security forces. The woredas in Kelem Welega, West Welega, & Horo Gudru Welega Zones have come under the full control of the security forces, the government said “This was stated in a statement issued by the Minister of Government Communication Services, Legesse Tulu, on June 23, 2014 regarding the current peace and security of the country. He said the area was controlled by the Oromo Liberation Army (WBO), a joint operation by the Defense Forces, the Federal Police, the Oromia Special Forces and the militia. He also said that several members of the terrorist group, which claimed responsibility for the massacre in Tole Kebele, Gimbi Woreda, West Welega, were also killed during the operation” (BBC, 30.06.2022).

Death, massacres and mass-murders follows where-ever the National Army shows up. Isn’t that convenient to then blame the enemies of the state after the fact? Especially, when you and your government claimed victory and takeover of the territories. So, suddenly after you had full control a massacre killing civilian happened an-mass. It is tragic that these sorts of acts get pinned on others.

Its not shocking that the Federal Government, the leaders of Addis Ababa would do this or any sort of thing. They are currently busy blaming the victims elsewhere too. As everyone is terrorists and enemies of the state. That’s why the state is doing whatever it can to vilify the Tigrayan people and the region. As it is facing starvation, famine and genocide, which has been state sponsored too. So, when a government can do that. It can easily sponsor a massacre elsewhere too.

I am very doubtful of the honest and truth in the words of Abiy. Who comes with claims of the OLA/OLF days after the government security forces took control of the area. The massacre wasn’t found with mass-graves from when the Oromo militia had held control. No, the massacre happened while the state had taken over control. Which makes it possible that the state is behind it and with their security forces. Because, why shouldn’t they? They did takeover the area and the territories?

That’s why there is a lie here and I believe Abiy is lying. Because, his a liar and a man who tends to speak plenty of untruths. His not the sort of fella that is trustworthy or genuine. No, he lies for his own benefit and comes with harsh warning against his enemies. His a proper warlord that way and his proud of it too. That’s why he wears fatigues and is proud of being a man of the army.

This is why I have a gut feeling. Sensing the armed forces of the state has sanctioned and sponsored the massacre. They have the option and the will to do so. Because, there wasn’t a massacre and a bloodshed before the state’s own armed forces took over. Peace.

Somalia: The Somali troops in Eritrea continues to haunt Mogadishu…

“Villa Somalia spokesperson Abdikarim Ali Kaar says a number of Somali troops in Eritrea are dead. The number was not given, but he did say that their parents are aware of the fatalities. “Some died naturally, and some perished while they were training.” Approximately 5,000 new recruits were sent secretly to Eritrea for military training by former president Farmaajo in 2019. Some of the troops were allegedly deployed into Tigray region to fight alongside Eritrean troops” (Arlaadi Media Network, 02.07.2022).

If you ever thought the truth would never be release. A new administration and a new President makes a huge difference in Somalia. The previous administration signed an agreement with Ethiopia and Eritrea. This alliance could be a reason for the deployment and training of Somali troops in Eritrea. It doesn’t make sense that they just perish and dies in an-mass on training-sites. That seems like a lie and some might have died of natural causes. This could easily happen, but not with thousands of men who was trained soldiers. No, that isn’t it and a cover-up.

We know by the reports of the time and the start of the conflict. There was deployment of Ethiopian, Eritrean and Somali soldiers inside Eritrean territory. That was done in preparation of the “Law Enforcement Operation” which started in November 2020. Therefore, the belief that they just perished and didn’t return. While there was public outcry and people wanting news about their loved ones. Just shows the truth of what happened. Since soldiers returning in caskets would have been the righteous things to do. However, this was a secret mission and this is why it wasn’t a publicly known enterprise of the then Villa Somalia.

This is why other sources revealed it. Now, the new administration isn’t denying the existence and the deployment of forces to Eritrea. However, they are not reporting or verifying the further use of them within the Tigray region. Which to me seems like the reason for the movement of troops to Eritrea in the first place.

This is why these reports was reported about last year.

UN Expert Report:

“In addition to reports of the involvement of Eritrean troops in the Tigray conflict, the Special Rapporteur also received information and reports that Somali soldiers were moved from military training camps in Eritrea to the front line in Tigray, where they accompanied Eritrean troops as they crossed the Ethiopian border. It is also reported that Somali fighters were present around Aksum. The Government of Somalia denied the participation of Somali soldiers in the Tigray conflict” (Situation of human rights in Eritrea – Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Eritrea, Mohamed Abdelsalam Babiker, 12.05.2021).

On the 17th January 2021 this was reported and I wrote about it then:

“With that in mind the Somali Guardian have today released a report that 2500 Somali trained soldiers who enlisted to a Qatari Military Service was flown to bases in Eritrea ahead of combat. These soldiers was destined and taken to military camps within Eritrea for the sole purpose of participating in the conflict in Tigray” (Minbane – ‘Ethiopia: Abiy’s Regional Conflict in Tigray’ 17.01.2021).

What I will say in the end… that is a mystery that the remains haven’t been returned to the mourning families. Neither has there any revelation of the agreement and direct arrangement between Mogadishu and Asmara. This is why the “natural death and perished” while training seems like another spin-and-another twist of the involvement of Somali troops in the conflict in Northern Ethiopia or the Tigray region. Time will tell if they release more information and be more honest about it. Now, the cat is out of the bag, but the whole deal is far from released to the public. Peace.

Ethiopia: Press Release from the Caucus of Opposition Parties (COP) – (05.06.2022)

[VOL – JUNE 05,2022] Having Noticed the fundamental differences on the approach of the National Dialogue with the government and it’s allied Parties, we here by announce the Establishment of Caucus of Opposition Parties (COP) to present our alternatives for National Dialogue that will result in genuine democratic system.

Therefore, We, the Caucus of Opposition Parties (COP) composed of below mentioned opposition political parties, who are key stakeholders with significant followers and influence in Ethiopia are fully committed to peaceful resolution of all conflicts and political differences that are flaming the current worsening political schisms and deadly hostilities.

Understanding the current dire situation Ethiopia is facing, all political parties, including the ruling party, agreed that the best way to tackle the gargantuan problems is through a National Dialogue. The government taking part in the initiative of the parties organized meetings where the modalities and process of the National dialogue was discussed. However, while the discussions were in progress and the stakeholders were debating the best way to organize the national dialogue, the government unilaterally prepared a bill regulating the process and passed it through the one party dominated parliament ignoring the concerns of the political parties.

Then, the government, exacerbating the matter further, started a dubious process of selecting the commission that will facilitate the National dialogue violating the fundamental principles of a national dialogue which are inclusivity in all facets of the process by all key stakeholders. Furthermore, no provision was put in place to allow commission to reach out to those who are currently banned and are at war with the government.

COP strongly believes that the current toxic political environment that resulted in bloody wars, economic decline and further polarization of the differences between all political forces, including the government could only be resolved through genuine, inclusive National dialogue where all stakeholders are fully engaged and given a chance to take active part in the solution.

Having seen how the National Dialogue process was compromised and misdirected, COP members decided to question their participating in a current format of the National Dialogue and present an alternative formula for organizing a genuine National dialogue in order to confront the culture of conspiratorial politics and heralding political actions that would positively contribute to the development of democratic culture and dissuade the government in a constructive way from taking a wrong direction.

Therefore, COP proposes that The National dialogues intended to address the key issues facing the politico/social and Economic landscape today shall meet the minimum of international standards and practices in order to give the process a chance to succeed include the followings:

An immediate, real cessation of hostilities and Internationally monitored ceasefire in all areas in Ethiopia including Tigray, Afar and Amhara, in Northern Ethiopia, Oromia , Benishangul, and Somali States.

Assurance by the government that it and key stakeholders take steps to restructure a commission and the edit regulating the process in a way that makes the process inclusive, representative and genuine, whereby negotiating parties have a strong support base, credible claim of legitimacy in representing their constituency, the political will and the ability to implement what was agreed upon including shared responsibility of implementation of the outcome of the National dialogue.

In order to ensure transparency, independence and inclusiveness of the commission members, political parties shall have a meaningful presence in the commission and take part in the process and criteria of selection. In addition, any discriminatory clause shall be removed from selection criteria such as holding only Ethiopian passports for people of Ethiopian origin in order to benefit from their expertise.

In the agenda setting process, there shall be a clear and transparent process that accommodates agenda presentation and approval by all stakeholders without discrimination.

Since Ethiopia is not an Island in this intricately interconnected global world and every decision we make is important to the other countries. Therefore, we demand provision that permit involvement and engagement of credible, neutral facilitators or mediators from the international community take part in the National dialogue process when deemed necessary.

Transparent and agreed upon decision making process including consensus and mediation shall be agreed by upon by all key stakeholders.

Adequate confidence building measures, including supplying security of key participants, effective international oversight, release of all political prisoners and lifting of embargo on humanitarian aid to those who are in desperate need of food and medicine.

It’s in the best interest of our people to give a guarantee and safety of all participants in the process and transparent security arrangements whereby Opposition parties leaders are not threatened by harassment, imprisonment and/or extra judicial killings.

Member Parties

1. AFAR JUSTICE AND DEMOCRATIC PARTY

2. AFAR PEOPLE’S PARTY (APP)

3. ARENA TIGRAY

4. DONGA PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC ORGANIZATION

5.HIBIR ETHIOPIA (HIBIR)

6. MEDREK

7. OGADEN NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT(ONLF)

8. OROMO FEDERALIST CONGRESS (OFC)

9. OROMO LIBERATION FRONT(OLF)

10. WOLAYTA NATIONAL MOVEMENT (WNM)

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

05/06/2022

Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) – Ethiopian Human Rights Commission’s report concerning the Karrayyu Massacre (05.02.2022)

Opinion: Obasanjo has an unforgiving mission in Ethiopia

“ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, March 21, 2016 – Some of Africa’s leaders are responsible for instability on the continent because they have failed to manage diversity in their societies, the former Nigerian President, General Olusegun Obasanjo, has said” (TANA Forum – ‘Press Statement: “Some African leaders to blame for conflicts” – Obasanjo’ 21.03.2016).

Today Olusegun Obasanjo as the Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union for the Horn of Africa. One of his key objectives and mandate is to mediate in the Ethiopian conflict. Alas, he has a mountain to climb and it’s an unforgiving job. This is a position and a office, which isn’t for the kind-hearted. Since, the parties here are in the trenches and in a brutal war. They are not in this for a small token or to get global recognition.

Obasanjo is now meddling and intervening within a battle, which has become broader and wider than what the Tripartite Alliance anticipated. The alliance of FDRE, SOE and Amhara allies didn’t anticipate the formation of a broad alliance of nationalities to combat the Tripartite Alliance. Therefore, at this point, the war isn’t only Addis Ababa-Asmara versus Mekelle. No, it is much more wider and with the objective of rectifying the leadership structure of the nation.

This is why the African Union (AU) is late here and the talks is only stalling things. The mediator can drop a statement saying today: “I am optimistic that common ground towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict can be secured. The interlocutors I have engaged on all sides have stated their wish for peace, security, and stability in Ethiopia. The main point of difference between the actors is in the means by which they seek to achieve this essential objective. War represents a failure of politics. Thus dialogue remains the only reliable and sustainable avenue to peace. There is no military solution to the conflict and battlefield victory cannot guarantee political stability in Ethiopia. I, therefore, appeal to the leadership of all sides to halt their military offensives. This will allow an opportunity for dialogue to continue to progress. Such talks cannot deliver in an environment of escalated military hostilities” (African Union – ‘Statement on the Prospects for Peace in Ethiopia by H.E. Olusegun Obasanjo High representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for the Horn of Africa’ 14.11.2021).

It is like Obasanjo haven’t learned from his own experience. Just 5 years ago as a Tana Forum speaker or delegate. He spoke of the reason why we are seeing a war within Ethiopia today. The diversity and marginalization of certain groups is the reason for the conflict in Ethiopia. That’s because one man wanted to consolidate all power and use old grievances to settle it. He wanted to overcome the TPLF and by doing so hurt the Tigrayan ethnic group. This he got done by getting allies who has suffered, because of the leadership in Mekelle.

Deep down, I think Obasanjo know the difference and the difficulties here. The parties are not willing to really talk. These are just cordial meetings to buy time. We know the United Front against Prosperity Party is running towards Addis Ababa. This is just common knowledge as they are aiming to use arms to change the leadership. They are not trusting or having faith in negotiations. That’s why the former President is to hopeful in this manner.

I don’t see Abiy or Afewerki talking to Debretsion. I wish I could, but these have already vilified and gone total genocide on the enemy. They are arresting people for being associated or allegedly associated with either Tigray Defence Force (TDF) or Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Therefore, seeing them talking or having a meeting seems unlikely. If the TPLF/OLF went to talk. I would be worried of arrests and authorities surrounding the venue. This is why the hope is very dishonest at this moment of time.

The talks Obasanjo was maybe positive and had a good vibe. However, those vibes will not change the matters on the ground. As the FDRE is going into a “survival campaign” mode and the TDF-OLA is slowly advancing towards their target. This is not a time or a moment of thinking these will give way. No party will earn on it and that would only salvage the reign of Abiy. A ruler, which is a warlord and someone who many wants gone. Therefore, if Obasanjo wants to save his term or if he wants peace. That is two difference objectives….

I don’t see the hope or the possibilities of quick or brief ceasing of military operations. That means an unilateral ceasefire, which means all parties would silence their guns. The Tripartite Alliance never did that and only played the facade of that. While they we’re still annexing Western Tigray and besieging the rest of Tigray region. Therefore, Obasanjo is too positive or naive. I doubt any of the parties will give way. These parties will fight to the death or until they have to go to exile. Peace.