“What you see behind me is a mountain area that was a strong hold for the enemy until yesterday. Now we have managed to clear the area fully. The morale of the defence forces is really great. This war is being undertaken with great feat. Now we have taken Kasagita. Today we will take over Chifra and Burqa. We will continue until Ethiopia’s freedom is ensured. We want to see is an Ethiopia that stands on our sacrifices – either to be Ethiopian or to be Ethiopia. We are confident that we will make this happen through victory. Our people are beside us” (…) “Our people beside us. Our brothers in Ethiopia are using all their capacity to making their voices heard. Academics are making their voices heard. Our role then is to be at the forefront leading the forces and ensuring success. You have seen the victory attained in a one day battle. This will continue with many great victories. The enemy does not have the posture that can compete with us. We will win. And we will transfer a free and prosperous country for our children. That is what we are here to do. And the results are good.” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali at the frontline in Afar Region (26.11.2021).
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy released a video from the frontline in Afar Region. The area where the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) have stagnate and not been able to get through. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and Afar Regional Special Forces have been able to stop the invasion from the TDF, which had plans to get to the strategic town of Mille. However, this is something the TDF haven’t been able too and they have been hit back there.
What is clear here is that the ‘counteroffensive’ is done in the Bati and Chifra areas of the Afar Region. This is done while the TDF and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) alliance was moving forward and getting close to Addis Ababa (Finfinne). This is a clear motivation to stifle movement forward or advancing in strategic parts of the Amhara Region. While the TDF-OLA alliance have been able to create a lot of damage there. While the ENDF and allies are trying to get back into Tigray region by manoeuvring with additional manpower in the Afar region. However, we don’t know how long that can hold.
Since, the ‘counteroffensive’ cannot continue or be viable. If the Debre Birhan is falling. As the sooner or later is encircling Addis Ababa. As the OLA and the joint forces on the frontline will have ability to advance for several parts of Amhara and Oromia. That is why the ENDF have to return back and redeploy to safeguard the capital, which they cannot afford to loose to the United Front against the ENDF and it’s allies.
What is striking about the PM is that his still have the same rhetoric, as he had of late. While only claiming his forces are fighting for Ethiopia. Just like the TDF-OLA United Front isn’t fighting for the Republic either. That is like saying only your side is fighting a just war. This just shows the current narrative and undermining the others. However, that is natural, as the PM and allies ordered the war and it has backfired.
The PM now wants to seem confident…. He wants it seem like they have control and has strengthen their cause. Abiy is forgetting about the current Nationwide State of Emergency and all the revisions of it. Which only shows the problems of the state, as well, as the need for the PM to be in the frontline. Since the Head of State should be in the situation room and discuss the overview of the war. So, he could have a total oversight over the conflict he ordered in November 2020. Now, he has to sound like he got it, but we know he don’t. As there are speculations of advancing TDF in Amhara region on several of fronts. This means they are encircling Addis Ababa.
The TDF-OLA United Front aiming at Addis Ababa would hurt the FDRE more than taking Mille. At this point, that makes more sense and the victory of bashing itself in the capital would damage the PM forever. To take a territory in Afar region wouldn’t do the same damage to his reputation or his armies. This is maybe why they have focused their troops on the fronts in Amhara region. That is clear by how things are going.
Lastly, it’s been a while since I seen someone so fresh and clean at a frontline. Seemed like he was untouched and straight from the shower. No dust, no wrinkled clothes and just Metal Gear Solid or Battlefield for PlayStation ready. However, but who I am to judge. I am sure he just came directly from the Palace to the frontline that day. Peace.
Of the people across northern Ethiopia in need of assistance, more than 80% (7.8 million) of them are behind battle lines.
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, November 26, 2021 – The number of people in need of humanitarian food assistance across northern Ethiopia has grown to an estimated 9.4 million as a direct result of ongoing conflict, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) announced today.
Amhara region – the frontlines of the conflict in Ethiopia – has seen the largest jump in numbers with 3.7 million people now in urgent need of humanitarian aid. Of the people across northern Ethiopia in need of assistance, more than 80% (7.8 million) of them are behind battle lines. It is vital that food assistance can cross battle lines to reach families in need.
Early in November 2021 the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) issued a Nationwide State of Emergency, as the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) – Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) – United Front was starting to advance to strategical parts in the Amhara region. Therefore, the state and the Republic set in motion, stipulations and articles of which gave the state more power and also more oversight to every moment in the Republic.
However, that haven’t been enough, as there have been one revision or additional order before today’s new measures. Meaning this the third one in month. This is now happening while the FDRE is run by acting Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen and the (s)elected PM is at unknown location. While there been speculations that he was at the Afar front-line, but quickly vanished from there back to the palace in Addis Ababa. However, that hasn’t been confirmed, as of yet. Nobody knows where he is or is up-to.
What we do know… is by official channels that the state has issued new restrictions and new measures.
First and foremost, it is illegal to wear military fatigue or regalia, if you are a civilian or not part of any security organizations. Meaning the only one allowed to wear uniform or fatigues is if you are a soldier, part of special force or a police officer. It is forbidden to wear it otherwise.
Secondly, the citizens are forbidden from giving intelligence or leak information of the whereabout or the locations of military troops. Battlefield or frontline information should only go through by either civilian or military leaders. Meaning, all information on how the warfare is going and what’s happening in the front. These sorts of statement or intelligence is only allowed to be controlled by the state. A private person or a citizen is forbidden from writing that on any social media or on any media platform. This would also block newspapers, journalists and reporters from broadcasting or reporting from the frontline. As they have to await statements from state officials or military spokespersons before they publish stories. Therefore, this is blocking the news and the ability to follow what happens on the frontline. As it will take away many people’s ability to publish or print about what happens on the frontline. That is the reality out of this.
This just shows how dire things are… when these sorts of things is happening. This is not a sign of strength or control. It is very clear that the state want to ensure who is involved in the conflict. That’s why they target the fatigues and the ones wearing military outfits. The second is to have total control of the output of information and seize anyone who leaks any sort of intelligence. That is to mull and silence, anyone who drops viable intel and can damage the war-effort. It is silencing the citizens, but a natural stance when the war-effort is going badly.
The Federal Government is clearly not going strong. The ENDF and it’s allies is clearly not able to stagnate the attacks on all fronts. They are clearly missing the mark. If it was going smooth. None of these measures would have been put. The state wouldn’t have cared, because they wanted to big-men like they where in the end of November last year in 2020. However, that time has long gone…
These measures are clear and with intent. There is no middle-ground. What this is aiming at the heart. While striking fear and also silence the ones who dares to write online. They want no information leaking out. The state don’t want any sort of reporting on the military campaigns or ‘counteroffensive’ for that matter. Because, that would hurt the pride, but also the end-game of the state too.
This is what wits end looks like. It is devastating to see how hard the state has fallen. However, the same state has made a man-made famine and weaponized aid. So, hard to feel sorry when innocent civilians are dying as a cause of their efforts. This brutality is just coming home and the ones who dares to challenge it at this time. Will, well… face the law like the Debre Birhan Police Chief Taye Habtegiorgis who dared to question and act with his conscience, which isn’t what his supposed to do at this given time. That’s why his behind bars now and became a prisoner of war himself. Peace.
“Addis Ababa, November 24, 2021 (FBC) – Government Communications Service Minister Legesse Tulu (PhD) disclosed that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is now leading the counteroffensive from the frontline to eliminate the terrorist group TPLF forces. The Government Communications Service Minister has briefed journalists on the ongoing survival campaign in the light of current situation in the country. Prime Minister Abiy has been giving leadership from the battlefield as of yesterday, the Minister stated. Other senior government officials have also immediately responded to the call made by the prime Minister to save Ethiopia and joined the campaign, he added” (Fana Broadcasting Company – ‘Prime Minister Abiy is leading counteroffensive from frontline: GCS’ 24.11.2021).
The Prime Minister have ordered ‘final offensive’ on Tigray Defence Forces since late November 2020. There been so many ‘offensive’s’ against the TDF and it have never seemed to work. Since, the war is just going from bad to the worse for him. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali is now supposed on the frontline and directing the warfare there. However, the whereabouts or his location is unknown.
The PM doesn’t only have to fight on various fronts against the TDF. There is also the whole United Front against him, which includes the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Therefore, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and it’s allies has gotten stretched. They have also been beaten for months now. The state has lost serious amount of territory and been defeated on the battlefield for months. That is just the proof of how far into the Amhara region the TDF and OLA are by this point.
Maybe, the PM shouldn’t have started his final phase of the war in the end of November 2020. Since, he has yet another offensive this month. There was on in October 2021 and who knew, which months doesn’t have similar efforts. The state had one point where all Regional Special Forces was sent to the frontline. Later the Republican Guards was sent to Afar region too. Liyu Police was sent to the front too. So, it’s not a new thing, but now the PM is there as a “Legendary Hero” for direct to your PlayStation console. That’s how things seems to me.
The campaign to save the republic has been going on for a while and have been a measure that the state issued with the State of Emergency. Abiy haven’t gained anything by doing that. Now he thinks a publicity stunt to go to the front will boost the war effort. However, the economy and the lack of troops doesn’t come out of nowhere. Getting untrained civilians to the front will not salvage anything either. What that will do is only sending more innocent civilians to the slaughter.
Abiy and his allies has already lost all credibility and is wavering. It is not like they are trailing on a good run of results. No, the Prosperity Party and armed forces are struggling. His efforts on the frontline will not make-up anything and could only cause more confusion. As his supposed to be in the Situation Room and follow the Generals doing his bidding there. Since they are the people who knows and has the strategic know-how do what is best. He is just a former colonel and a intelligence gatherer. Not like he can bring much to the table here. Heck, the publicity is only headlines and not proof. As they are mull about what he does or where he is.
That says it all, Abiy is not winning the war this way. The Acting PM Demeke Mekonnen Hassen must be worried in Addis Ababa. As he has the reigns of all this uncertainty and has to handle the current state of government. This cannot be easy… and yet another counteroffensive. We have heard this before and there been a few of those “final offensives” without securing the resounding victory.
So, who believes this ‘counteroffensive’ will make a huge difference now? I don’t, but maybe that’s just me. Peace.
“Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed goes to direct the war effort from the frontlines, state-affiliated media report as Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen will take charge of routine government business in Abiy’s absence” (TRT World Now, 24.11.2021).
“Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s move to the frontline is a testament to his exemplary leadership and has inspired Ethiopians to return to their country. Victories on the battlefield are also being recorded” (FDRE Government Communication Service” (24.11.2021).
The Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassen has gotten a more prestigious role in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. The loyal cadre and handler behind the Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed Ali. Have today suddenly risen to the occasion and will now deal with all the bureaucracy in Addis Ababa.
Mr. Hassan will not have it easily. As Abiy is somewhere else and not in office. Neither is he in-power either. His somewhere fighting the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) or Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). We cannot know where or have any idea, since the FDRE is holding his current whereabout silent. Still, the state-affiliated media is giving more power to his deputy Hassan.
This means the deputy will have the power of which Abiy used to have. We don’t know how long this will last or what sort of consequences this have. However, it is worrying sign and you can wonder, if he wants to go to exile or has another plan than going to the front-line. Abiy have already fought war, as an intelligence gatherer and certainly don’t want to see death again.
The 1995 Constitution says this:
Deputy Prime Minister
1. The Deputy Prime Minister shall:
(a) Carry out responsibilities which shall be specifically
entrusted to him by the Prime Minister;
(b) Act on behalf of the Prime Minister in his absence.
2. The Deputy Prime Minister shall be responsible to the
Prime Minister” (Ethiopia, August 1995).
So, Abiy is following the constitutional order by handing over power to the Deputy in his absence. That is stated clear in the article of 75(b) and we can wonder if he will act upon article 75(2). If he will be responsible for the PM? Will he order Abiy away from the front-line, if his life is danger? That is what we can wonder about.
The front-line and saying he might be there could easily just be propaganda. However, he must be absent and gone from office. Now Mekonnen Hassan will take responsibility and ensure things are running smooth. Which cannot be easy, as foreign envoys and internationals are leaving. The United Nations even sending out warnings to their staff. While multi-national NGOs and such is worried about their operations and helping with humanitarian assistance across republic; and not only in the Tigray Region where the blockade has been there for months.
The Deputy PM should wish he was somewhere else and not in office. The Prosperity Party and everyone is promoting the war, but don’t have the cash or the resources to do so. That’s why the FDRE Government Communication Services needed to spread the donation account to the diaspora. This time to lead must be hell and a wreck.
It is like Abiy is running away and hoping his Deputy can clean up his dishes. So, that Abiy can eat and enjoy the spoils of war later. However, we cannot know how that will go, but we do know his enemies are advancing slowly towards Addis Ababa. They are encircling it and will ensure capitulation of the capital at one point or another.
The PM might make this look like a strategic move, but it seems like his running. We just don’t know where. Since there is no additional proof of the Lt. Col. on the battlefield or the front-line. Peace.