Burundi-Rwanda: Who is fooling, who?

“RDF is trained and prepared to fight wars but not to start them with others, but if others make us their problem and choose to start a war with us, that is when we use judgment, determination and training to fight and finish it for them” – President Paul Kagame at the Rwanda Military Academy at the Commissioning Ceremony on the 13^th July 2018.

There been twice reported during this month of movement of a possible militia crossed from Cibitoka province from the Kibra forest in Burundi into Nyungwe forest in the Ruhengeri district in Rwanda. Some Burundian sources claim it is Imbonerakure, the Youth Militia out of the CNDD-FDD in the province, and the final claim is that its trained militias from the Force de Defense National du Burundi (FNDB) too. While that is happening, in the Southern Regions of Rwanda, the 31^st Brigade and the 4^th Division are doing military operations, as reported on the 12^th July. So, it is not like various reports shows something is brewing. Hopefully, just puppy-talk, but these regimes are not sweet uncles, but fierce regimes, who has no trouble getting rid of someone in their way.

That is just some of the reports, so it is hard to know what is real. It has been reported that there was Rwandan Burundi based militia attacked this area in the 1^st July 2018 and that on the 13^th July 2018, that the same group came back.

There been long speculations and rumors of border clashes. But who would be favor of these reports?

Do the Rwandan government want a war with Burundi, as their economy is crippled and the dictator is a mad-Max, whose getting rid of enemies like other trash garbage. It is not like Rwandan dictator is anything different, he has left his opposition to rot in the prison as well. So them both are acting in-different to the voices within their republics. Therefore, non of these regimes are positive for the freedom or liberty. So, I would not defend anyone of these. Pierre Nkurunziza have no problem to send people to their demise, neither would Paul Kagame, he would put someone into a fatal tragedy for standing in his way.

Nevertheless, as the government needs fear, they need wars and enemies to act strong. That the Rwandan government could need a conflict, could consolidate Kagame even more, as he grew up in conflict and came as a General, whose never left power. Nkurunziza came out of a civil war and has now soon gotten rid of all his enemies internally too. These two would need a conflict to gain popularity, because it is just so far fear and self-inflicted deposing of citizens can go. By the time all opposition are gone or in exile.

Certainly, both regimes would need and use this to their favor. However, the Burundian Authorities have said it isn’t true. While the Rwandan government has verified it. This has happen before. You can question, if the Rwandan want to create a crisis and an excuse to attack Burundi. Does the Burundian government want to blame Rwanda and make sure they can attack the neighbor?

As both governments are working to kill this off. You can question why all these reports are coming up and who is fooling who?

What is the play and whose playing? What is the end-game?

I really wonder. Because both parties are saying: “no it wasn’t us and we’re not involved”. While both are sort of blaming the other parties. We will clearly see the signs and see where this goes. Who will use the other party.

However, it is hard to know who is right, as both are using their authorities to counter-claim. The Rwandan has happen through the Police Authority, while the Burundian has claimed it through the army. Certainly, one of them is lying. While in Rwanda, there been military operations going-on, without connections to the possible insurgence from Burundi.

That is why you can wonder if Rwanda are using the Burundi excuse for their own activity? But that is just speculations. Just like the rest. Nothing is really verified and both government like to keep things to their chest and secrets, also not like free media is free to report either. Therefore, the sources are shady at best. Peace.

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Burundi: FDNB – Communique de Presse (10.07.2018)

OLUCOME: Portant sur la Commemoration du 56eme Anniversaire de l’Independence du Burundi (03.07.2018)

UNHCR Airlifts Burundian Refugees from Kenya/Kakuma Refugee Camp to Burundi/Bujumbura – (Letter dated: 02.07.2018)

Opponents of constitutional change in Burundi face torture and execution: United Nations investigators (28.06.2018)

On the alleged rights violations committed in the country, the report highlights “numerous arrests” of people who called for a “no” vote in the referendum.

GENEVA, Switzerland, June 28, 2018 – Reporting to the Human Rights Council, the Commission of Inquiry on Burundi delivered its findings based on more than 380 interviews, in addition to 500 testimonies collected last year.

The dossier compiled by the three-member panel encompasses events surrounding the national referendum last month on constitutional reform which could extend President Pierre Nkurunziza’s term in office well beyond 2020.

Noting a presidential declaration made in support of his successor after the referendum, the report reiterates the view of some observers that Mr. Nkurunziza’s comments were “by no means a clear and firm commitment not to run” in future elections himself.

It also notes “difficulties” faced by international media outlets in covering events in the country amid the suspension of broadcasters including the BBC and Voice of America, following reports that were deemed “biased” by Burundian authorities.

On the alleged rights violations committed in the country, the report highlights “numerous arrests” of people who called for a “no” vote in the referendum, including members of opposition parties who were then allegedly executed or abducted.

It states that “unidentified bodies” have continued to be found “in various parts of the country” after their arrest by “individuals in police uniform” or National Intelligence Service (SNR) agents.

Victims were also targeted by the Imbonerakure — the youth wing aligned to the ruling CNDD-FDD party — whose influence is said to have risen “in the repressive machinery which has developed since 2015”.

Describing how the Imbonerakure “cover the country”, the Commission of Inquiry’s findings detail how their members inform the authorities about “real or perceived opponents in each locality”, all the while “harassing, controlling or intimidating the population”, with the approval of State officials.

This collaboration extends to putting pressure on people to collect contributions for elections in 2020, the report states, before detailing how civil servants are required to pay the equivalent of 10 per cent “or more” of their salary to an election fund.

This levy extends to households and others above voting age on an “ad hoc basis at the local level”, the report continues, citing eyewitness reports of “roadblocks set up throughout the country” by the Imbonerakure to check whether people had receipts for the tax.

Such developments have contributed to the “continuing deterioration” of the Burundian economy that has left the country’s people among the very poorest in the world, according to per capita earnings, the report continues.

Referencing the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), it states that 3.6 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in Burundi today.

The deteriorating economic situation will be included in the Commission of Inquiry’s final report to the Human Rights Council in September.

OLUCOME: L’Agumentation Continuelle de la Dette Interieure au Burundi Sans Contrepartie au Niveau de la Production Nationale qui est en Phase de Recession (21.06.2018)

Burundi: CNARED-Giriteka – Communique (Rectificatif) – (15.06.2018)

Burundi: OLUCOME – Degradation Continuelle de l’Economie Burundaise suite au Manque des Fonds d’Investissements Contrairement aux Discours Politiques du Gouvernement qui Affirment les Realisations de Beacoup de Projets d’Investissements a Ses Propres Fonds (13.06.2018)

Burundi: Note de Service Relative a la Transition entre la Nouvelle et l’Ancienne Constitution au Parlement du Burundi (11.06.2018)

Opinion: I don’t believe that Nkurunziza will step down in 2020!

I do not believe the reports that President Pierre Nkurunziza will step down in 2020 when his “final” third term is ending. As he has already rewritten the Constitution, gotten a favorable verdict in the Constitutional Court to run in 2015 and has reason to step down. As he has consolidated all powers among himself and his closest allies. Even build a youth brigade together with police, military and agents of the government oppress, detain and kill opposition activists and leaders. Therefore, he has no reason to step down. If so, what will he become if he steps down?

Will he become a shoeshine boy on the streets of Bujumbura or merchant. Since he has been the merchant of death and destruction. He has used propaganda and misused power. Shouldn’t he be afraid of stepping down? Since he has oppressed, taken total control and gotten rid of everyone standing in his way. Doesn’t he think that someone will have his crimes challenged if he steps down?

Seems like a dream after a 13 years of nightmare. He is supposed to just deliver 15 years of darkness and lack of dim light. I have feeling this isn’t real, other people like he has promised to step down and never did. They have said they would do so if the public wanted it. However, they have lingered for decades upon decades. Rigged elections, used the military as his power-tool to put the people into submission. Also the Imbonerakure to silence his opposition together with the Police. Therefore, he has little reason step down.

If someone is rewriting the Constitution to fit him, has all powers and should be afraid of prosecution and retribution after all the ills he has done. He would earn little to step down, unless he got a villa near Yahya Jammeh in Equatorial Guinea. That is the place where he should reside and surely President Obiang will give him space, like he offered Mugabe the other day. He want the dictator gathering on the outside of the African Union and no one can blame him for trying hard to do so.

However, Nkurunziza is just doing like many others of his kind. Speaking of stepping down, but never really doing so. He will rewrite and make sure he has the office. As he is using the state and the Republic as his private enterprise. The state party is all built around him and his cult-figure. He is the hero and the one that Burundi needs.

Therefore, I don’t believe the hype. At this speed there is a need for a revolution or a coup to bring him down. It is not like the elections or the CENI is built for anyone else than him. The way things are, everyone in the authorities are his stooges and his paid cronies. There are no one else than him. It is either Pierre or nothing. Peace.