“One of the great opportunities of Brexit is our ability to trade more with countries around the world. I know that the right hon. Lady will want to speak to many of the Welsh farmers who are enjoying selling their lamb to the new markets that we have opened up for them. That is what we will get on and deliver” – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (09.11.2022).
The new Prime Minister in the PMQs answered a question about international trading from Liz Saville Roberts MP. Who asked a serious question in concerns with the forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which states the trade will be lowered by 15%. In response to that, the PM answered this and went on about selling welsh lambs.
This isn’t a case of only mutton. No, this is a case of botched opportunities and losing the European Single Market. The realities of Brexit is setting in and as a Third Country, the losses are piling up. That’s why the export industries has been hit and other industries have even flagged out of the United Kingdom. Because, they are safer to be within the European Union and the Single Market… than risking their bets from the UK.
That’s why it’s interesting not only the mention of a bad forecasts from the OBR. There are other reports coming with shattering numbers, which the former Chancellor should be worried about.
Just read this:
“David Jinks, head of consumer research at logistics firm ParcelHero, commented: “Britain’s exporters of goods, from food to cars, have all suffered from the impact of the poorly negotiated Brexit trade agreement and increased red tape and duties. The same applies to services, from finance to computing, which now fall outside the regulated EU services market. “Perhaps most disappointingly, these latest results reveal Britain failed to successfully transition away from the EU to other overseas markets – one of the positive outcomes promised by Brexiteers. Looking at two vital export markets beyond the EU, the numbers also tumbled. “Perhaps the situation is summed up best by looking at the UK’s exports to the whole of the EU. In 2019, they stood at a healthy £298bn. By 2021, they had slumped by £30bn to £268bn, but even that was a huge lift from the £259bn they had tumbled to in 2020, in the immediate aftermath of Brexit.”” (Chris Sparks – ‘UK Exports Slump In The Aftermath Of Brexit’ 31.10.2022, Businessplus.ie).
A conclusion from one paper:
“Across EU member states, we find that Brexit has led to a significant decline in trade with the UK in almost all cases although by varying magnitudes. Looking at the different margins of trade, we find a substantial reduction in the number of products traded from the UK to the EU. However, for EU to UKtrade, three quarters of the estimated fall in trade can be attributed to the intensive margin. This is consistent with a pattern of smaller trade flows more impacted by changes in trade costs in the UK to EU direction and hence ceasing to trade” (Janez Kren & Martina Lawless – ‘How has Brexit changed EU-UK trade flows?’, October 2022, Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) – ESRI Working Paper No. 735).
When a man like David Jinks is stating this. We have already seen how the Seafood industry and Animal industry has reacted to the effects of Brexit. There has been businesses and such who has lost out a lot, because of it. Brexit has brought a lot of ramifications and no deal or the free trade agreement (FTA) has the ability to cover the losses of trading within the EU.
Brexit promised a fantasy land, which haven’t appeared. The dreams of leaving the EU and getting full sovereignty haven’t cut it for the businesses. The exporters has been hit and the logistical firms has also been devastated by it. This is the true costs of operating from the outside and also locking itself from the European continent by default.
The losses of the trade agreements which the UK had through the membership of EU hasn’t been replicated either. Neither is it getting the same sort of treatment or abilities to export to the EU. That’s the consequence of the Withdrawal Agreement and successive negotiations ever since. The UK has failed here and they are continuing the agony.
The Prime Minister can make lofty promises and say the Brexit will create a new day tomorrow. However, the realities are the same and the UK haven’t established or been able to generate deals, which are as beneficial as being part of the single market. That is just an issue that will linger on. Because, that’s what gave the UK a huge boost and simplistic trading partner with the EU Member States, which it doesn’t have today.
So, when Sunak says there is lots of opportunities, as a result of Brexit. I don’t see it and I only see a lie. All things are showing that the downturn and the affects of Brexit is a decline. The Brexit itself has only cost and it isn’t changing for the better. Peace.
“I will unite our country, not with words, but with action. I will work day in and day out to deliver for you. This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level” – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (25.10.2022).
The Prime Minister with his announced cabinet reshuffle is really re-issuing some known faces from Boris Johnson and giving way to some of the appointees of Liz Truss. This isn’t a sign of a new era or a change towards reform. No, this is a continuation of the latter years and not much significant changes either.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn’t doing anyone any real favours here. Appoint the likes of Dominic Raab and Michael Gove. Neither is the likes of Therese Coffey or Suella Braverman choices of reason. The pick of Penny Mourdaunt seems just to buy peace, as she was his competition for the office in the first place. Others are re-appointments or re-shuffling into new positions. The one who has been everywhere this it seems, Nadhim Zahawi. That just shows it all and the public should understand the game now.
PM Sunak is just trying to find the sweet spot between the ERG, the Boris clique and the alliance around Truss. Just so he has everyone covered and within his reach. That will be tricky position and it won’t be easy to pull off. No, he has to be on the proximity of all these groups and still able to play ball. If he has shortcomings or isn’t finding the right path. There will be resignation and claims that he differs from the “mandate” and what the Tories was “elected to do”. That will be the end-game here.
Heck, what is striking that Sunak has even appointed people who was in the cabinet of Theresa May. He is re-appointing and using old heads who haven’t made things better. That’s the likes of Jeremy Hunt, who also was appointed in the last minute of Truss cabinet too. Therefore, Sunak is really just trying to play with everyone.
While his only appointing a few loyalists of himself too. Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem to be many of these. That means that the ones around him are people who can turn on him quickly. The moment the buck stops and the knives are out… they will turn on him and bury him like they did the predecessors.
Prime Minister Sunak promised a government of integrity, professionalism and accountability… while he has chosen similar characters and MPs into cabinet, which has shown the opposite. The PM has taken in people who has broke the ministerial code and haven’t valued the Nolan principals either.
The PM has to prove his words, but the appointed ministers proves these words was all fluff. It was for publicity, but he appointed the opposite to unite the party. He didn’t appoint these ones to be more professional or show integrity.
Who appoints Braverman and Gove for integrity? Who appoints Raab for professionalism?
Well, this cabinet is just the Tories best-of-hits… and it’s not looking good. It is just the first day, but it’s not looking good for Sunak. Who isn’t changing tune, but is just another one. Peace.
“I am afraid to say—and I will come to a close soon—that that is why it was a central purpose of the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, now an Act, to properly empower the police in face of the protests, yet Opposition Members voted against it. Had Opposition Members in the other place not blocked these measures when they were in the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill, the police would have already had many of the powers in this Bill and the British people would not have been put through this grief. Yes, I am afraid that it is the Labour party, the Lib Dems, the coalition of chaos, the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati and, dare I say, the anti-growth coalition that we have to thank for the disruption we are seeing on our roads today. I urge Opposition MPs and Members of the other place to take this second chance, do the right thing, respect the rights of the law-abiding majority and support this Bill” – Suella Braverman MP (18.10.2022).
That the new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak appoints Suella Braverman MP as the Home Secretary after her first stint is beyond me. That is a validation of not only breaching ministerial code with the usage of a private email. However, Braverman could easily be investigated for this and be held accountable for doing so. This in combination of possibly creating problems with a trade-deal between the United Kingdom and India. Therefore, Sunak as an PM is risking a lot by doing this.
That Sunak is possibly having a walking liability here. Braverman can easily create more fire and trouble. Not only pushing for the deportations to Rwanda. She can do even more despicable things and use her office for the controversial right-wing parts of the Conservative Party. That’s why she can quickly become worse and more excessive than Priti Patel MP ever was in this office. This is very grim… but the reality.
Just read these pieces about her:
“In terms of her political history, Ms Braverman is a hardline Brexiteer and stands on the right-wing of the Conservative Party. She also supported the controversial decision to send migrants to Rwanda” (Charlotte Hawes – ‘Suella Braverman: Who is the Fareham MP, is she Attorney General, is she married to Rael Braverman, did they get married in Hampshire, and where did she come in the Tory leadership race?’ 07.07.2022, Portsmouth.co.uk).
“Braverman, 42, has been the MP for Fareham since 2015, and in April 2020 became Attorney General for England and Wales and Advocate General for Northern Ireland – an appointment which immediately alarmed civil liberty groups, and within months was harshly criticised by members of the Bar Association, who accused Braverman of bypassing legal advisers and the ministerial code over the course of Brexit” (Sean Bell – ‘Who is Suella Braverman? This is the Tory hopeful planning a ‘war on wokeness’’ 11.07.2022, The National Scotland).
“On Wednesday, the 42-year-old Suella Braverman, whose parents have Indian origins, quit the government just 43 days into her role as home secretary. In recent times, Braverman has been on rocky grounds with the prime minister owing to her stand on the trade deal with India, saying it would increase migration to the UK when Indians already represented the largest group of visa overstayers. She had also attributed the violence in Leicester following an India-Pakistan cricket match to uncontrolled migration and the “failure of newcomers to integrate”. While she acknowledged her mistake in using her personal email for official correspondence, she also accused the government of breaking “key pledges” and of “pretending we haven’t made mistakes”” (FP Explainers – ‘Explained: How Suella Braverman’s resignation as Britain’s home secretary spells more trouble for Liz Truss’ 20.10.2022, Firstpost.com).
It is really amazing that she has been able to return within 6 days of resigning. The resignation was to tarnish and earn points on the downfall of Liz Truss. Now she is returning back in the role after week away. Where she will now represent the same ministry she only had for 43 days. That’s what she did and stood for at the moment.
Clearly she wants power and enjoys it. She will meet the wokerati and the Tofu-Eating Guardian-reading people in the near future. That is just obvious. Braverman will be remembered for these statement in Parliament. I am expecting more reckless statements like this. That comes with the territory and the way she is.
What is striking is that Sunak didn’t see the red-flags and the troubles associated with her. To re-appoint her now. After she revealed her breach of ministerial code just a week ago. That she is still entrusted with the role of Home Secretary. This is really revealing of how Sunak is gambling and doing what he can to “unify” the party. However, his not building trust in the Kingdom. Many is already disgusted and disappointed. That’s happening on the first day on the job.
That’s impressive and a waste of potential. I didn’t expect magic from Sunak. However, here is the master-stroke and the possible downfall… Peace.
The ones that is rising up in hopes and grabbing their chair of joy. I would say your turning the tables a bit to fast. People should remember the time that Rishi Sunak, one of the wealthiest men in the United Kingdom was the Chancellor. He held that role for some time and had the ability to shift economic policies. That’s why this period has to be considered now that his officially the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
I don’t want any ill for the man. This is his moment of prestige and prominence. He is taking over from a hectic turmoil of Truss and the falling pendulum of Boris Johnson. All the things that the Tories has done for 12 years and the shifts of policies are now rearing it’s ugly head. That’s not Sunak’s fault, but he was a part of it. He had plenty of time to make a difference, but he chose to align and work within those perimeters.
That’s why as his becoming the Leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister. This is happening with the blessing of the Tories MPs and not the electorate. His the third PM of the 2022. Previously in the year he lost the campaign to Truss and now he succeeded the second time. Meaning his resilience and will to get there pushed him over the finish-line.
Because of that backdrop, I dropping a few breadcrumbs from the outlook on his term. The people he picks or appoints in cabinet will be detrimental and show his real alliances. Just like Truss chose to be aligned with ERG group of MPs. The same will be important to follow with Rishi.
That’s why these texts are important!
“When it comes to tax and spend, Rishi Sunak is proposing nothing beyond current government policy in the short term – unsurprisingly, given that he set these policies as Chancellor. We therefore know a lot about what we would get under his premiership, at least initially, without his having to say much. We would have tax heading towards its highest sustained level in 70 years as a share of national income, though with an intention to bring taxes down once he has ‘gripped inflation’” (…) “There would be some headroom against the government’s fiscal targets – including the target of taxes covering all day-to-day spending by 2024-25 – though not enough to allow the Chancellor to rest easy, given the degree of economic turbulence and uncertainty. In the longer term, Mr Sunak has been clear that he does wish to cut taxes, but not until inflation has fallen back” (Stuart Adam Robert Joyce Isabel Stockton Tom Waters and Ben Zaranko – ‘ Tax and spending policies of Conservative leadership contenders’ 21.07.2022, The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)).
“The hike and the controversial loan-not-loan to deal with rising energy prices is “Treasury’s revenge for profligacy,” said another senior MP. But for many, it also highlights the line between good politics and good economics. If you hurt people in their pocket, it’s unlikely they are going to reward you at the polls. “The economic problems are starting to stick to him,” says another senior backbencher. “I think we are past peak Rishi.”” (Catherine Neilan – ‘’Past peak Rishi’: Why Conservative support is ebbing from Sunak as favourite to replace Boris Johnson’ 14.02.2022, Business Insider).
“Whether Sunak has penned a note for his successor quipping that the money is all gone remains to be seen. He undoubtedly should. The Chancellor leaves a worse legacy than perhaps any predecessor of modern times. Inflation is running at nine per cent. The trade deficit has blown out to a mind-boggling eight per cent of GDP. The pound is tanking on the currency markets, real wages are collapsing, strikes are rampant, and the economy is heading for a recession. It is possible that Tony Barber, Edward Heath’s Chancellor of the early 1970s, left the nation’s finances in a worse state. But even that is debatable” (Matthew Lynn – ‘Rishi Sunak won’t be missed as Chancellor’ 05.07.2022, The Spectator).
There are certain aspects here that will key for the future. It is not like Sunak isn’t in favour of tax-cuts as well. That was the downfall of Truss and Kwateng. Certainly and hopefully he doesn’t usher in another “biscotti”. Who knows if his naive enough to do so?
What is striking is that his time as a Chancellor bought him enough peace in Westminster, but not across the Kingdom. Neither does he have the confidence or the grand support as other Prime Ministers. There is already calling for a snap election or a General Election. Since, the coronation of Sunak will be questioned. He don’t have a mandate or a popular vote behind him. His just a MP crowned because the two previous PM’s failed miserably.
Now as PM Rishi Sunak has not only to prove himself and his worth. Truss has broken the economy and the financial market. The Truss cabinet created worse for pensioners, gilt-markets and the mortgages, as the energy crisis is growing ahead of winter. Therefore, the Prime Minister has to stand tall and isn’t having it easy. That with the costs and burdens of Brexit will be put on him. The ramifications of that in combination of the downturn after the lockdowns and the biscotti “mini-budget” will linger over his head. There is no soft landing or time for a waiting period. He has to carry the weight and pick the right aides to find a way out of this.
As PM Sunak will not have the time or the ability to fail. We see how that cost Truss. He cannot do the same and risk it on the altar of financial speculations. That would again create prolonged agony and further the downfall of the financial market. The Tories has already shown how arrogant or ignorant of the plights of the general public. Now, one of the wealthiest men of the Kingdom has to prove that he cares and have the answers.
Time will tell if he does. It won’t be easy and he has to chose wisely. In the beginning he cannot risk or take gamble. If he does… he can easily follow Truss and be a short-term PM without a legacy worth clinging on too. Peace.
“Even the former Labour Shadow Chancellor admits – I’m the candidate Labour fears most” (Penny Mordaunt, 24.10.2022).
Today there is finally only two candidates for the leader of the Conservative Party and the Prime Minister. The role will be held by the winner after Liz Truss resigned. Last night Boris Johnson pulled out after lying about the support of MPs. However, there are two MPs left chasing the title.
This is Penny Mordaunt and Rishi Sunak. They are both compete for it. While Rishi Sunak has already crossed the threshold and is within the realm of victory. He has over a 100 MPs on his side. He could have a coronation later today or tomorrow for that matter.
Whille Mordaunt is clinging on to her chance. This is the second time she is trying this year. Penny tried last time to, but fell flat to Truss and Sunak then. Now, she hopes to overcome it. Because, we know the degenerates will be on her side and we have heard how Sunak has been cascaded on the radio over his ethnicity. Therefore, she hopes she can pull it through.
This game it’s hard to tell what will happen. Though the one with the most solid backing right now is Rishi. Rishi who is also standing for a second time this year after losing to Truss earlier in the year. He overcame Boris Johnson this time around and Penny shouldn’t have a chance. However, these things aren’t rational at this point.
The Tories are a wreck and on the brink of total collapse. The Tory MPs could say to Penny: “Back down, take the L and move-on”. Though we shouldn’t count on it. Boris could easily say to his allies. Back Penny instead of Sunak. Because, he want to avenge himself now, before he prolongs his vacation, which has lasted since 7th July 2022 and he only returned for his second bid to become the Prime Minister.
These two will now fight it out. Sunak wants to avoid the membership to vote. That’s how Truss certainly won the last time. It wasn’t with a huge margin, but enough to beat Sunak. The same could happen again, if the two was to compete with the membership of the party. Mordaunt clearly wants the membership to vote, because Sunak didn’t win last time. It would be detrimental to Sunak to be coronated swiftly.
Anyone who has followed and seen, Sunak has a chance in this and should be the next PM. However, with knowledge of what could happen. There could suddenly be a surge of support for Mordaunt during the day, which would make this more challenging. While at this moment… there isn’t really a race, but a safe journey for Sunak.
He should be the one in this, but the Tories are easy to come with the knives and change the narrative in a hot minute. Just like so many MPs called for the end of Boris, but just yesterday vouched for him again. Therefore, we cannot totally trust them to be consistent or stable in their train of thought. They will fish for relevancy and possible pay-offs for their “loyalty”. That’s why some things might easily change during the day.
Mordaunt versus Sunak… who knew, right? But that’s where we are in October 2022. Peace.