Ethiopia: Is Djibouti interfering in the Ogaden-Afar Internal-Conflict?

Somali region accuses militia from Afar of killing hundreds of civilians in an attack. The Somali regional admin spokesperson Ali Bedel told Reuters that the militia carried out a “massacre” Saturday in a contested area known as both Gedamaytu and Gabraiisa” (Garowe Online, 27.07.2021).

The Issa-Somali militia is now verified to interfere in parts of the Afar Region. That has happened after the massacre in the Somali region over the weekend. This is an reaction to this and directly retaliating at the forces of Afar.

Issa-Somali has done this after the Afar Special Regional Forces and Liyu Police attacked massacred and looted Gedamaytu and Gabralisa.

What is more striking is that there is unverified reports that the Djibouti government is arming and helping the Issa-Somali militia, which have now crossed from the Somali region into Afar region. The Issa-Somali is targeting pastoralist areas of the Afar. Towns and woredas who has been contested between the Ogaden and Somali region.

The Djibouti interference would be striking, as the Addis Ababa have a working relationship with Djibouti. They are allies and the Djibouti government have easily transferred or deported Ethiopian nationals without any hesitation. Also, directly causing more harm in the border regions of the state of Djibouti.

As the Somali region youth have already been reported to block the railway and roads that goes into Djibouti. Which is the biggest trading partner and the biggest port of the landlocked Ethiopia. This is a beneficial relationship and that’s why you could wonder what the government of Djibouti would earn on arming a militia within Ogaden and going into Afar. Unless, they are planning to send these to target the Tigray Defence Force (TDF). However, that is just mere speculation.

The Issa-Somali is now fighting together with Somali (Ogaden) Regional Special Forces in the Afar region. This just shows how fickle things are and you can wonder what is up. As they are targeting Afar tribes men in general. Then, they are doing this to annex land to the Ogaden region. Which has been an issue for years…

We can just wonder if Djibouti is arming the Issa-Somali militia. If they are… then its yet another country involved in internal conflicts within Ethiopia. That’s a sign of weakness. For someone talking so dearly about being sovereign. The state is not only attack by foreign forces of the likes of Eritrea. Who has still annexed some land in Tigray. While Djibouti could use this an opportunity as well to get their stake in as well.

That is only, if this is true, which we don’t know yet. We know the Federal Government would lie about that. Also, about the rise of Issa-Somali as well. They wouldn’t come out and say that Regional Special Forces would be used for this either. That would hurt the pride and strength of the Prime Minister. Who has to look great and gallant at all times. Peace.

Ethiopia: The newest OCHA Situation Report on the Tigray region states a dire need for more humanitarian assistance [5.2 million people in dire need!]

According to the latest unendorsed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, without urgent and unimpeded food aid, over 400,000 people in Tigray region are projected to face catastrophic food insecurity (IPC 5,Catastrophe); and over 1.8 million people now in Emergency levels of acute food insecurity (IPC 4) in Tigray could slide into starvation” (OCHA, 19.07.2021).

The conflict that started in early November 2020 has now it’s tolls. There been reports of the devastation and destruction of the agricultural sector, as the conflicts continues and warfare persist. The state have blocked access and made very hard to get any humanitarian assistance into the region. That is still an ongoing issue, as the conflict is taking another turn.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs “Ethiopia – Tigray Region Humanitarian Update Situation Report, 19 July 2021” is a vital report on the current state of affairs. As the state will say everything is dandy and they are doing everything needed. While not proving anything and blocking humanitarian access or even convoys to cross into the region. That’s why you know the current affairs are bad.

There are reports of betterment, but that is just patching the hurt temporarily and not something sustainable. That is very clear by the wording and the amount of people still in dire need, which has reached 5.2 million civilians who needs humanitarian aid and their basic needs met. That shows how dire this conflict is and how many who are in the crossfire between the Tigray Defence Forces and the allies of the Federal Government.

OCHA reports:

Inside Tigray, aid workers are now able to access areas previously hard-to-reach, with an estimated 75 per cent of people in need of assistance (4 million out of 5.2 million people in need) now in zones where humanitarian operations can take place, compared to 30 per cent in May. However, stocks are rapidly depleting inside Tigray,as road access to the region has been curtailed over the last weeks. Road access to Tigray is now only possible through Semera, in Afar Region, via Abala, with heavy control by regional and federal authorities. The UN Humanitarian Air Service received, on 5 July, approval from the Government of Ethiopia to recommence flights to Tigray, and final arrangements and operational details are now being worked out to resume the service” (OCHA, 19.07.2021).

All of that just shows how hard the authorities and the Federal Government are acting in concern to the Tigray region. They are just blocking roads and ensuring the humanitarian convoy only gets one way in. Secondly, they also have to rely on “dumbo drops” of humanitarian assistance to the region. That says a lot about the unwillingness to open access and opportunities to directly deliver the assistance in the region.

OCHA continues:

In addition to limited humanitarian assistance, access to basic needs—including health care and water and sanitation—remains severely constrained. Lack of banking system and cash, scarcity of fuel, and limited access to commodities, are affecting the ability of the population to cope. Many rural areas still have no electricity and/or communications. Families remain unable to contact missing or separated loved ones due to the communications blackout in large parts of the region, while services and/or supplies that are reliant on electricity are no longer functioning” (OCHA, 19.07.2021).

This here has been reported, but shows the total blockade and that the state has initiated protocol not only to starve, but hurt anyone. They are ensuring the greater public of Tigray doesn’t have access to the basics. Everyone is targeted and there is no one who isn’t touched by the efforts made by the state. That’s why the state has ordered these measures and seeks to punish everyone.

OCHA says:

Although 80 per cent of people in northern Ethiopia depend on subsistence agriculture, so far very little financial support has been allocated to agricultural interventions that can help at-risk families resume productive activity and produce food for themselves and their communities, according to FAO. The current rainy season (June-September) offers a tight window of opportunity for farmers to get a crop in the ground and reboot local food production, but without funding and speedy supply of agricultural inputs, that opportunity could be missed” (OCHA, 19.07.2021).

I can say without a shadow of a doubt, that the Federal Government will supply or help the agricultural sector of Northern Ethiopia or the Tigray region. They have blocked funding of the Regional State Government for months ahead of the conflict and stopped aid organizations for participating in projects and combatting locusts. The Federal Government blocked other measures from humanitarian organizations as well ahead of the November 2020 conflict. So, don’t expect it to anything now. Now that it doesn’t allow or make it hard to access for UN Humanitarian Organizations to even deliver the food or basic necessities to the 5.2 millions in need.

The Prosperity Party and the Federal Government will not indulge funds for the agricultural sector now and has no interest in doing so. Not at this current stage and time. With frozen bank-accounts and locked out of ordinary communication. Neither, can other organizations fill the void and ensure farmers funding to buy seeds or seedlings for another harvest in the middle of the conflict.

Just like the OCHA stated in the beginning 1.8 million people could face starvation and most of the people needs to agricultural sector going to get feed. That’s why the humanitarian assistance needs to go there and reach in time. So, that this season can save and help out a little in this crisis. As there are plenty of people in need.

There is need for change and making things easier for the humanitarian organizations to reach the people in need. As this is only prolonging the agony and the hurt. The Federal Government is doing this deliberately and its tragic. Because so many lives are touched by this. Peace.

Ethiopia: Abiy’s dangerous rhetoric

Today’s statement is exposing the narratives and the mindset of a government in the middle of war. Who can deliberately state that the government and its allies is getting rid of the “weed” and shielding the “wheat”. That is a way of killing off and demeaning the enemies. This is in the same manner, which a Prosperity Party leader in Oromia said months ago that they needed to clean the sea of the fish.

Prime Minister Abiy is showing a sort of rhetoric and political language who only fits a genocide. Where everyone of one ethnic group is the enemies. The nation can only be unified and cleaned of he “weed” if these are gotten rid off.

That is the initial game here. It isn’t just a nice metaphor, but a destructive language, which intends to dehumanize and allow war-crimes. That’s how the state is allowing ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity and use illegal methods to destroy the enemy. That’s why the Prime Minister doesn’t mind blocking humanitarian aid, humanitarian convoys, besieging the Tigray region, blocking electricity, jamming phone-lines and a media blackout in the Tigray region. That’s all fine, because it’s destroying the “weed”.

Everything is fine as long as you shield and secure the wheat. Since you are targeting and stopping the “weed” from growing. The “weed” will destroy the harvest and the quality of wheat. That’s what the Prime Minister is speaking off.

This is with intent and incite, inspire and making people battle-ready. The Prime Minister is calling out for war and annihilation of Tigray. He wants them to burn and suffer, because this way he is securing unity on the cost of one group. As long as one group of people is destroyed and their livelihoods. Than he see a possibility for unity…. which is insane and dangerous.

A man that uses this sort of derogatory words against others. Only shows that he devalues and describes others as “sub-human” and allows their demise. He is defending his rights to assault, kill and massacre the “weed” because that’s what the state needs. This is a worrying sign in itself and that the PM does it so publicly.

He spread this message to the nation on Twitter and it got translated. The language is showing his intent and purpose. The PM and his alliance is going to the core. They are not valuing or caring for the “weed” and working in groups to get rid of the “weed”. That says it all and it’s nothing hopeful in this language.

So, if things turns to genocide or genocidal, they have been told to do so by the Prime Minister. While we know the Tigrayans are being targeted, losing their businesses, abducted and incarcerated without due process. The state is blocking banking services and other measures as well. Therefore, the state has already prepared for this…

The world should be worried when the Prime Minister announces things like this. Today’s statement is a public warning shot and a war-cry. The state is now willing to collectively get rid of the “weed” and that can legitimize a possible genocide. That should worry us all and nobody cannot say they didn’t see it coming.

Prime Minister Abiy words are horrifying and the world should watch out. The rehashed and new recruits have a clear mission and that should worry anyone. Not just winning a war, but annihilate as well. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy’s war-cry!

The enemy we are facing is an enemy which is the cancer of Ethiopia. The junta is probably the only group in history that used its political power to disintegrate its own country. As the saying goes “a familiar devil is not easily dislodged”, so the junta will attempt to cling on desperately” (Abiy, 18.07.2021).

Just as all the news of deployment from all the regions of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia to reissue the war in the Tigray Region. The Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has published his war cry.

The war that he ordered early in November 2020 and “ended” with a “ceasefire” in the end of June. However, that never happened and the state besieged the region. They blocked the roads and region. The Amhara Special Forces and Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” was still active. Troops was circling the region and blocking everyone from entering. The Federal Government was also destroying vital infrastructure like bridges to block even humanitarian convoys from entering. Blocking aid agencies from warehouses in Amhara. So, that the humanitarian organizations needed to reroute and drive through Afar Region to get into Tigray region.

That’s why we know today message to galvanize the troops of Ogaden (Somali Region), Sidama, Amhara and Oromia who has been called up. The Special Forces and new recruits to combat the Tigray Defence Force (TDF). That’s why he is coming with this statement to show strength ahead of the battles and continued warfare in the North.

Forces who are afraid of our unity will do everything they deem to be divisive. They conspire to divert our wrath from them toward our own. But we will never do that. The unity we have created now is what destroyed the old conspiracy of the junta and what will destroy the owner of the conspiracy and which will ensure the renaissance of the country they had conspired against” (Abiy, 18.07.2021).

Isn’t it ironic that he speaks of unity? A man who is forcing his war on people. A man who has taken everyone for granted and getting the whole republic to fight his war. A leader who is not willing to talk, negotiate or have dialogue. However, he is willing to use all his allies to fight his war. While also dismissing every single dissident or such. That’s why his election is a fraud and the usage of military to get political gains in Tigray. He has only gone to this war to consolidate power, but however… that has backfired. The quick and brief operation, which was supposed end in the end of November 2020 is still on its 8th to 9th month. So, it is hard to build things together, when your constantly works to destroy your political enemies. That’s a road to destruction and the PM should know this, but I doubt he will live to say that. His arrogance and ego will not allow that.

We have a strict plan of why, how, when, where, and what to do. The result will soon be evident to both friend and foe. Our army is ready for a spectacular mission. We will work to remove the weed. But while removing the weed, we will try our best not to damage the wheat. In our country, we weed collectively. And this is what the children of Ethiopia are doing” (Abiy, 18.07.2021).

The PM is calling Tigray the “weed” away from the wheat. Deliberately saying they are dangerous and destroying the harvest. That they are the ones damaging the nations. That’s because the TPLF dared to jump out of the Prosperity Party and not being a part of the consolidation of the EPRDF coalition. So, his willing to remove the TDF and TPLF for that reason. It really says something about his mindset.

We can confidently say, the junta will be uprooted in a manner that will ensure it will not bud again. This will happen if we collaborate to remove the invasive weed. In the process, individuals may err; divisive information may be heard. Even though we are united as to our end, there may be arguments about the means. In any case, this will not stop us from achieving our goal. The children of Ethiopia have risen from all four corners to undo the plans of the junta. This itself is a victory. The children of Ethiopia have identified their enemy. And they know what they have to do. And they will do it” (Abiy, 18.07.2021).

The Prime Minister shows his warlord tactics … and there is no denying that anymore. His speaking of the mission and the mission is clearly to destroy, loot and total annihilate the Tigray region. To take away land and destroy its power. They are doing whatever they can and it’s not anymore about a constitutional dispute. No, it is about power and settling old grudges.

We now know… and he uses words like “cancer”, “devil” and “weeds” to describe his enemies. It shows what he stands for and who he is. His not a man of peace, but a man of war. Who is willing to use any word to fit his narrative.

Prime Minister Abiy has his war-cry after starting to deploy new recruits, using special forces and new soldiers from every other region. That’s because he didn’t have an army to bring to the table. That’s why he had to call a “ceasefire” to retool and rebuild. To have chance to return to Mekelle. A city that is in his eyes not “important” anymore. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Government of the National State of Tigray – On False Allegations Concerning Child Soldiers Serving in the TDF (17.07.2021)

Ethiopia: The TDF have entered the Afar region

The Tigray Defence Force have now entered a stage where they have crossed the Tigray Region borders. The Afar Regional State Communication Affairs Office has verified that the TDF have entered there.

This is happening while the Federal Government is restructuring it war and recruiting troops for other regions. There is reports that from Ogaden Region alone is sending 4000 Liyu Police towards the National Effort to combat the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and their means of surviving the continued war-effort against them.

There been reports that the Federal Government have also done this Sidama region. Where the Special Forces are called up and the state is calling up youth to fill their quota. Just like the quota in Ogaden. There was a call-up for the Oromia Special Forces as well. This shows that the Prosperity Party is now clearing up every other regional state and having their armies to fight their battle in Tigray.

That’s maybe why the TDF is entering into Afar region. As they are in defence outside its region to secure its own borders. As there is coming new troops from all the others to participate in the conflict.

The Afar Regional State Communication Affairs Office stated this:

The terrorist TPLF has opened war on the people of Afar by expanding its terrorism to Afar. The brave Afar farmers who don’t negotiate with the people of Fanti Rasu zone Yalo Woreda who opened the war with our people” (Afar, 17.07.2021).

This shows that the TDF have entered from the Southern Tigray region into Afar region. That is maybe a strategic move to block and diverge the new recruits from the rest of Ethiopia. This however shows the strength of TDF. We cannot know what sort of casualties or civilian destruction of this. The Afar regional state doesn’t specify that either.

We don’t know at what border points the Federal Government have besieged the region. What we do know is that the World Food Programme used the Afar region to cross into Tigray region to help out the humanitarian efforts to combat the man-made famine. We just have to hope that this doesn’t stop another convoy or make the humanitarian missions more dangerous. As the conflict is spiralling out.

We also know that Oromia Special Forces have been stationed in Afar Region before they we’re participating in the Tigray conflict. Therefore, the TDF entering the region is a way of self-defence at this point. But it shows also the weakness of the Federal Government. As the TDF is able to enter Afar.

There will be more reporting on this, but this shows that Abiy is losing control of the conflict and its now coming closer to home for him. He doesn’t have the army or the strength to compete. Since he TDF is able to get this far as Afar region. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Economy is struggling, not a rising lion as previously forecasted!

For as long as I can remember there gone stories of the amazing rise of the Ethiopian economy, the financial markets and the outputs out of this world. Where the money would grow ten-folds within minutes of its arrival. Like a mirage the number’s must have appeared in front of our eyes and stories that, we are told over the recent years. The Ethiopian powerhouse and the serious contender with Nigeria and South Africa. With their railways, banks and development projects, the powerful dam and all the others. It must have been a ride for the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn, must be so proud of his achievement.

Why I say that, because a booming economy does not do this:

“Ethiopia and World Bank have signed a 1.3 billion dollar grant and loan agreement to enhance equitable services and reduce food insecurity. The agreement was signed by Abraham Tekeste (PhD), minister of Finance & Economic Cooperation (MoFEC) and Carolyn Turk, World Bank’s country director for Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan” (All Africa, 2017).

So when a booming economy, that has such magnificent rates and growth prospects should not and no need for extensive borrowings from the World and subsidiaries, to say they need so is a lie. The debt and the international support for projects and food security is not a sign of a sound and strong economy. More of the latter if I beg to differ. On that, alas the recent weeks has proven this. World Bank was ushered in the end of September, but it is now cash-crunch time.

Not the jolly Captain Crunch, but the credit is due.

“Ethiopia will devalue its currency to attract foreign investment and close the gap in foreign trade, President Mulatu Teshome said at the opening of the bicameral parliament on Monday. He said his government is faced with a serious shortage of hard currency and export trade has dwindled in last three years. Mulatu said major projects like the construction of railway and universities will not be carried out this budget year due to a serious shortage of finances” (ESAT, 2017).

The seriousness is there and it is bleak, when the President Teshome shows up and spread enlightenment to the world. That the economy is fragile and not at its peak, is clear when all the prestige and the giant projects are now put on hold until further notice. Clearly, the financial strains have hit the economy, as well as their exports has given them less hard currency.

It does not go well, when just days ago, when this hit the fan as well:

Double-digit inflation keeps threatening the macroeconomic conditions of the country as the headline inflation rate hit 10.8pc last month, according to the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)- the highest since October 2015. It is in contrary with the target of the government in the second edition of Growth & Transformation Plan (GTP II) to keep inflation in a single digit. The hike in the price of cereals such as teff, maize, wheat, barley, beans and sorghum coupled with holiday-driven price upsurge is the primary reason for the inflationary pressure last month, keeping the food inflation stagnant around 13pc.“As September is a time of multiple holidays, it is believed to influence the increase in the inflation rate,” the report of CSA reads” (Berhane, 2017).

That the cash crunch and the double-digit inflation hits the Republic is not a good look. The proof of the currency value falling, lack of hard currency and new Multi-National loans proves that the Financial Sector and Financial Institutions are strained. There is nothing more to give, it is just bones and not meat. It is just a matter of time before the boiling bones gives no taste to stew as well!

In addition, you the economy is bonkers when their agency spread out this sort of tales, at the time the devalued currency is told to the public on other platforms.

This is from the Ethiopian News Agency:

“The diplomats, who observed the government’s direction at the joint session of the parliaments, whom ENA has talked to also forecasted the country`s economic growth to be amplified in better manner referring the current stability of the nation. Ambassador of Bangladesh to Ethiopia Monirul Islam said the growth that Ethiopia’s economy has witnessed was ‘wonderful’ despite the drought and other problems. “It was 10.9 percent and this year I hope it will be more than that because there is a good rain, everything is good, the state of emergency has been lifted and everything is normal”. “So I think the economy should perform better especially in the agriculture sector as well as in the industry sector”, he pointed out” (ENA, 2017).

I do not know if Ambassador Islam lives in alternative reality or trying to sugarcoat the situation of the dire economic state that the Republic is facing, but it makes good propaganda for the ones who still want the fantastic picture spread around the globe. That the Ethiopian economy is sound and still growing. However, it is hard to grow when you lack currency, you have growing inflation and you are borrowing more funds. I do not know, which economy or financial system that it works splendid in. Certainly not this one.

In addition, the news of the financial rising tiger or lion of Ethiopia has been a mirage, a fraud and play for the world to see. At this stage and in time, it is far from it. The Ethiopian economy is plummeting and at amp speed. If you eat up the crap the ENA serves you, it must certainly serve your kind, but it is not reality. The President even said so, the reports are striking and the added loans proves the dire state.

The ones who is the most hurt. It is the citizens who needs the hard currency to buy food and live, they are punished for the reckless care of the financial system. They are the ones who suffers, because of how the state decided to conduct their affairs. They are the ones who feels the inflation, the rising prices and still has to get by. It is not right, but that is how it is. The Ethiopian government should subsidize and make sure the people get enough. However, do not expect that. This is from the same government that sent Agazi squad to Amhara and Oromia to kill and destroy. They do not care, unless they have too or if it keep them in power. Peace.

Reference:

All Africa – ‘Ethiopia: World Bank Assents U.S.$1.3 Billion Finance to Ethiopia’ (30.09.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201710090243.html?utm_campaign=allafrica%3Aeditor&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=promote%3Aaans%3Aabljpw

Berhane, Samson – ‘Gov’t Sees Double Digit Inflation, Again’ (08.10.2017) link: https://addisfortune.net/articles/govt-sees-double-digit-inflation-again/

ESAT – ‘Ethiopia President Says Country is Broke’ (09.10.2017) link: https://www.tesfanews.net/ethiopias-president-says-country-financial-crisis/

ENA – ‘Diplomats Laud Economic Performance of Ethiopia’ (10.10.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/economy/item/3814-diplomats-laud-economic-performance-of-ethiopia

 

Opinion: The Ethiopian Financial Market is plummeting…

The Ethiopian People’s Republic Defense Force (EPRDF) Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn have ordered to fix economic problem the government has. EPRDF has been hailed for their financial growth, but with this sort of news. You know the growth and the reality is far from the truth. Ethiopia News Agency: “International Consultant of Trade, Investment and Economic Development, Dr. Taffere Tesfachew said on the occasion the fact that African countries are performing better than the global average is testimony to how far Africa is coming over the decade. He noted that the economic growth of countries like Ethiopia and Ivory Coast is highly impressive at this time when other African countries are struggling with one or two percent growth” (ENA, 2017).

So I have to question the economic growth, as the Forex Woes and the remittance from the diaspora are proving otherwise. Together with the need of more foreign aid to solve the famine of the drought. So the World Bank clearly knows the troubles of the Ethiopian government since they did this:

The World Bank today approved a $600 million International Development Association (IDA)* grant to support the Government of Ethiopia’s vision of building a national safety net system to provide effective support in chronically food insecure rural areas, including providing cover during droughts. The Rural Productive Safety Net Project (RPSNP) supports the evolution of the Government’s umbrella Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) that has been in operation for the last 12 years and is one of the world’s largest safety net programs in the world. Run by the Government, the PSNP pools money from 11 donors, including $600 million of World Bank Group IDA funds. The PSNP provides regular cash or food transfers to 8 million people; currently 4 million of them are in areas affected by the ongoing drought. Its food-for-work component supports public works programs related to landscape restoration, irrigation, and agro-forestry” (World Bank, 2017).

So, when the World Bank gives this as a support of the government. You should take it serious and know the problems of the state. The need of financial support and to make sure drought doesn’t affect the starving citizens. EPRDF are doing badly and now the Forex Companies has to pay of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) for the debt to Enterprise in Djibouti. Look!

Foreign Forex Woes:

The directive of foreign currency allocation entails all banks must sell foreign currency to a sector whose importance is very high. The banks are required to give priority to payments authorized by the central bank such as foreign loan, supplier’s credits, interest, profit, dividend and excess sales of foreign airlines. Hence, all banks are required to sell the currency collected from importers, although the current direction is high, according to a banker with almost two decades of experience. “Even though I agree with the fact that we shared the responsibilities with CBE,” said one of the vice president of a mid-sized bank. “But requesting such amount of Forex in a short time might lead to crisis.” Yohannes Ayalew (PhD), vice governor and chief economist of the central bank, disagrees. “It is a collective responsibility of all banks whether the call was quick or not,” said Yohannes. “There is no reason to ask CBE to cover all the payments.” The Forex shortage in the country has been haunting the country for years. Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, in his press conference with local media nine months ago, admitted that the Forex crunch would last for the coming two decades” (Addis Fortune, 2017).

NBE Directive to pay of debt to Djibouti:

National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) gave order to private banks in Ethiopia to pay the 15 million USD bill the Ethiopian Shipping Logistics Services Enterprise (ESLSE) to Djibouti’s company. The banks are, according to Fortune, given 3 days to sell the foreign currency to the Enterprise. The order is said to have come when the entire country is in short of foreign exchange. The shortage came following the drop in the country’s export performance and remittance earnings. ESLSE owes the money to the port of Djibouti and the central bank gave the order for every bank including the government owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE)” (Addis Fortune, 2017).

Beset by the ever expanding informal channels of remittance, Ethiopia may continue to grapple with shortage of hard currency unless swift and collective measures are put in place, ‘Scaling up Formal Remittance to Ethiopia’ report discloses. A billion dollar transaction takes place via informal channels with 78 percent of the total remittance passing through informal networks in Ethiopia. Some experts believe that the transfer of money through unregulated channels will also likely result in illicit financial flow and dealings. The seizure of 541,659 USD around Harar is a recent indication of informal corridors of hard currency. Informal channels happen to be lophooles for global terrorism and corruption. It will open doors for illegal activities, people may use it to collect huge sums of money for their own dangerous causes, says Ethiopian Financial Security Director General Gemecu Weyema” (Gebrehiwot, 2017).

All of these articles proves the problems of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and their lacking foreign exchange. This has become a problem as the remittance hasn’t come through the formal channels, as the informal economy are big in Ethiopia. Together with drop of foreign exports that has also hurt the amount of exchange.

Clearly, the government of Ethiopia has a bigger problem that they want to reveal, as the NBE and the Foreign Exchange is plummeting. Therefore, the need at the same time for World Banks loans. Shows the dire situation of the economy. It is not like the Ethiopian News Agency would speak ill of own government and their policies. Since, the propaganda of own growth are more important, than actually telling about the weakness of the economy. This is a reality since the financial policy of Forex Exchange is in favor of the NBE.

This can also make it more profitable to for an informal market, instead of in the open market. The Ethiopian government really needs foreign exchange to pay of debt and use all their means. Instead, they are trying to cover-up their troubles, as they have debt to Enterprise in Djibouti and have troubles with the famine caused by drought. Peace.

Reference:

Addis Fortune – ‘Ethiopian Government Orders Private Banks to Cover ESLSE Forex Needs’ (12.09.2017) link: https://www.ezega.com/News/NewsDetails/4679/Ethiopian-Government-Orders-Private-Banks-to-Cover-ESLSE-Forex-Needs

Addis Fortune – ‘Ethiopia: NBE Ordered Banks to Cover ESLSE’s 15 Million USD Bill’ (13.09.2017) link: http://www.2merkato.com/news/alerts/5220-ethiopia-nbe-ordered-banks-to-cover-eslses-15-million-usd-bill

Ethiopia News Agency – ‘Gov’ts Need to Act Together to Achieve Economic Success: UNCTAD 2017 Report’ (14.09.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/economy/item/3705-gov-ts-need-to-act-together-to-achieve-economic-success-unctad-2017-report

Gebrehiwot, Desta – ‘Ethiopia: Informal Channels Raise Red Flag On Forex Earning’ (14.09.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201709140729.html

World Bank – ‘World Bank to Help Ethiopia Build a National Safety Net System as a More Effective Response to Droughts’ (14.09.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/09/14/world-bank-to-help-ethiopia-build-a-national-safety-net-system-as-a-more-effective-response-to-droughts

Drought-stricken herders in Ethiopia need urgent support (11.08.2017)

Pastoralist communities are facing huge losses of livestock.

ROME, Italy, August 11, 2017 – Supporting herders to get back on their feet and preventing further livestock losses and suffering are crucial in drought-hit Ethiopia where hunger has been on the rise this year, warned today the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Drought has devastated herders’ livelihoods as it exhausted pastures and water sources, leading to a significant number of animals dying or falling ill, particularly in the southern and southeastern regions of the country as other areas recover from previous seasons’ El Niño-induced drought.

Drought-hit pastoralists face reduced milk production, rising malnutrition, and have limited income-earning capacity and severely constrained access to food.

Some 8.5 million people – one in 12 people – are now suffering from hunger; of these, 3.3 million people live in Somali Region.

The current food and nutrition crisis is significantly aggravated by the severe blow to pastoral livelihoods. For livestock-dependent families, the animals can literally mean the difference between life and death, especially for children, pregnant and nursing women for whom milk is a crucial source of nutrition.

With up to 2 million animals lost so far, FAO is focusing on providing emergency livestock support to the most vulnerable pastoralist communities through animal vaccination and treatment, supplementary feed and water, rehabilitating water points, and supporting fodder and feed production.

“It is crucial to provide this support between now and October – when rains are due – to begin the recovery process and prevent further losses of animals. If we don’t act now, hunger and malnutrition will only get worse among pastoral communities,” said Abdoul Karim Bah, FAO Deputy Representative in Ethiopia.

By providing supplementary feed and water for livestock, while at the  same time supporting fodder production, FAO seeks to protect core breeding animals and enable drought-hit families to rebuild their livelihoods. Animal health campaigns will be reinforced to protect animals, particularly before the rains set in, when they are at their weakest and more susceptible to parasites or infectious diseases. FAO-supported destocking and cash-for-work programmes will also provide a crucial source of cash for families.

Funding appeal

FAO urgently requires US$ 20 million between August and December to come to the aid of Ethiopia’s farmers and herders.

FAO has already assisted almost 500,000 drought-hit people in 2017 through a mix of livestock feed provision, destocking and animal health interventions, thanks to the support of the Ethiopia Humanitarian Fund, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden through FAO’s Special Fund for Emergency and Rehabilitation Activities, the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund, as well as FAO’s own Early Warning Early Action fund and Technical Cooperation Programme.

Ethiopia: Food insecurity intensifies despite late Gu and Belg season rainfall (24.05.2017)

Key Messages

  • Despite enhanced rainfall at the end of April into early May over many areas of Ethiopia, food security outcomes are still expected to deteriorate, particularly in southern and southeastern pastoral areas due to the late start, erratic, and below-average Gu/Genna rains. In portions of Somali Region, the accelerated loss of livestock has significantly expanded food consumption gaps, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in the absence of sustained assistance during June to September. In lowland areas of SNNPR along the Rift Valley and in East and West Hararghe, southern Tigray, and portions of northern Amhara, projected outcomes are expected to move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), beginning in June, due to low household purchasing power and a lack of confirmed humanitarian assistance.
  • Late Gu/Genna season rainfall has partially rejuvenated water points for both livestock and human consumption across some woredas of Somali Region, and improved water availability has been reported in Borena and Guji zones of Oromia and South Omo in southern SNNPR. However, the rainfall has not continued into mid-May, and the short-term forecast indicates only moderate rainfall as the season concludes. The current marginal improvements in pasture and water are likely to be depleted by early June, which will mean rangeland resources will rapidly decline, and subsequently livestock body conditions and productivity, until the Deyr/Hageya season in October.
  • Over most Belg-producing areas of the country, extended dry spells through much of April suppressed the growth of Belg crops as well as Meher long-cycle crops. As a result, even if the Belg rains continue through the end of May, lower yields are likely for maize crops in particular, especially in lowland areas of SNNPR along the Rift Valley. Due to late planting, the green and dry Belg maize harvest in SNNPR is likely to be delayed by more than two months. Poor households are already experiencing constrained food access as they are highly market dependent during the peak of the lean season. Staple food prices, especially for maize, remain atypically higher.
  • The 2017 HRD initially estimated that 5.6 million people needed humanitarian assistance through June 2017, but the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) has revised higher the number to 7.81 million. In addition, the NDRMC has projected that in Belg-dependent areas, additional PSNP beneficiaries past the traditional six-month period of transfers will need extended support. The NDRMC, JEOP, and WFP completed the first two distribution rounds, and the third round is underway. However, there are logistical constraints that might impede timely distributions.