“For the opposition, turning loss into long-term growth requires honest self-assessment, not going into hiding. Popularity, music, charisma, and online energy cannot replace alliances, structures, data, and disciplined strategy. The recent election was not decided in the 3 months of campaigns. It was decided in the five years between elections. And in that period, one side organized while the other mostly energized” (Gerald Kansiime Kagyenzi – ‘Hope Is not a Strategy: Why the Opposition Fell Apart’, 27.01.2026, Nile Post).
This here is just a flawed article from the Nile Post, the digital newspaper who sanitize and wants to deliberately speak well of the government. The modern imprint of New Vision. That’s who they are, and this article just proved that from Mr. Gerald Kasiime Kagyenzi.
His arguments are flawed for one reason. The main culprit and main reason for the failure of the opposition, isn’t the opposition itself, but the government and their entities. Let me explain the important fact, which was hidden in his text.
The National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the state party itself wasn’t a shadow or anything like that. No, the NRM had the whole state machinery behind it and even every part of the authorities to back them up. The Party itself doesn’t need structures or vibes even, when they can just send law enforcement and besiege the opposition at any given time. Therefore, regardless of what the opposition did or said. Well, it won’t matter, because the army and the other security organizations will hunt the opposition down. Which it did and it even helped in other civilian affairs too.
It would be rich to see the NRM work and try to campaign like the opposition. In the same climate and with the same reckless attitude of the state against it. See their Presidential Candidate being blocked, MPs arraigned and coordinators kidnapped. That would be really a vision to see… because then we are speaking of level playing field. As if, they could be touched, be taken into custody and kept incommunicado by drones. That would really a poetic justice. However, we know that day won’t come soon. The NRM and the army wouldn’t allow that.
When Kagyenzi speaks of structure, well the NRM Primaries proves how shaky and shoddy they are. We see the blunt affairs and how they act. So, he acts like we don’t know and he speaks like the opposition has no structures, no organization or anything, which is false. As they try to compete, build and organize, but the NRM isn’t really allowing it or letting them act like them. There is a threshold for the opposition versus the NRM. The ones who can’t see that should study the Police Force and the Public Order Management Act. Which is made to control and sustain the opposition, which we see day by day.
If the opposition would have a friendly army and have military operations succeeding for itself. Then might have won, but that’s only for the NRM to get. We know they can have the army to act on its behalf and serve the parties interests. That’s why soldiers, law enforcement and other security entities was all participating in this election. They were the ones that secured it and finalized the results even. So, there is no need of speeches or big salutations after it. Because everyone knows who mattered and who served His Excellency.
So, who and what army can beat the NRM? Well, another army and another gang of bullets, because the ballots are just part of the charade to legitimize the whole affair. It isn’t even funny, but just tragic. As lives are lost and they don’t mind doing that. Just to prove a point and show the Republic who are in power and has all the instruments of the state at its disposal. That’s what we see, and it isn’t even done clever. If they were smart, they would try to conceal it, but it wasn’t even a clandestine mission. However, it was done in the open and for everyone to see. They tried to block the internet, but everyone knows. So please, find better arguments, because this isn’t it. Peace.
Mr. President Yoweri Museveni
On the 15th of January 2026, you contested in the Ugandan presidential elections. On the 17th of January 2026, you were declared the winner of that election by the Electoral Commission.
Since that time, videos and recordings have continued to surface of you referring to those you contested against—and their supporters—as terrorists.
There have also been continued reports of army and police crackdowns on civilians, particularly in the central region that voted more heavily for opposition candidates than for you and the NRM party.
One of the candidates you contested against, Robert Kyagulanyi, has had his home under siege since the day of the elections and has been forced into hiding for his safety to date.
On the 23rd of January 2026, his home was again attacked at night by masked armed individuals—some in army and police uniforms and others in civilian clothing. Accounts shared on social media by Barbie Kyagulanyi describe unauthorized entry, threats and assaults on her and their household staff, destruction of property, and theft of phones, electronic devices, CCTV equipment etc.
Another opposition Member of Parliament, Hon. Muwanga Kivumbi, a Vice President of the National Unity Platform (NUP) for the Central Region, has been charged with terrorism for allegedly attacking a police station. These charges contradict earlier reports indicating that his home was attacked on election night by armed men in uniform, resulting in the deaths of 10 people.
Two other Vice Presidents of NUP—Dr. Lina Zedriga (Northern Uganda) and Jolly Tukamushaba (Western Uganda)—have also been reported on social media as having been abducted. Their whereabouts remain unknown to date.
Another key opposition leader, Dr. Kizza Besigye, is in unlawful detention. He has been reported to be in poor health and denied access to his doctors.
A Catholic priest, Father Ssekabira, is in prison, among other reasons, for associating with Robert Kyagulanyi, an opposition leader.
Civil society organizations have been de-licensed.
Activists such as Sarah Birete are in prison on questionable charges.
Many other Ugandan citizens are missing or in unlawful detention for their political views or for supporting opposition candidates.
Mr. President, you are the President of Uganda and the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. Your son is the Chief of the Defence Forces.
Can all of the above be happening without your knowledge or consent?
If you did not authorize or consent to the above actions, what steps have you taken to restore discipline and legality within the army and police, especially when they operate under your direct authority?
You campaigned on the theme of protecting the gains. As a citizen, I ask: what does that mean in practice?
Does it mean placing opponents under siege, arresting them, labeling them terrorists, and imprisoning them for indefinite periods?
The Constitution of Uganda—enacted under your leadership—provides for multiparty democracy and allows candidates dissatisfied with election results to seek redress before the Supreme Court. When opposition leaders are hunted, their homes surrounded by armed men, and their parties terrorized, are those constitutional guarantees still meaningful?
This pattern did not begin in 2026. It has been ongoing against different political actors, with the latest targets being NUP leaders and supporters.
As a country Uganda, are we moving forward, or are we moving backwards?
If you genuinely won this election, why prevent opposition leaders from using lawful and constitutional means to challenge the election results if they wish to?
What peace is being protected when some sections of the population do not live in peace? Do we have one Uganda, or two?
Mr. President, Yoweri Museveni.
Many Ugandans have been forced into exile, fearing for their lives. Others have been pushed to seek employment in foreign countries where their safety and well-being are not guaranteed, simply to fend for themselves and their families.
Among those in exile is the President of the Uganda Law Society, Isaac Ssemakadde.
I, a former Justice of the Supreme Court of Uganda, and many other Ugandans are currently living involuntarily in exile, having been forced to flee for fear of our lives.
Your election win was secured in darkness in the midst of a nationwide Internet shutdown. The statements and actions that have followed since you were declared the winner continue to raise questions whether you actually won the election. If you won legitimately, repression is unnecessary.
If repression exists, legitimacy is in question.
Your manifesto did not include hunting down those who didn’t support you.
Elections in any democratic country are competitive. They are always people who support the candidate who emerges as the winner and those who support other candidates in the race.
So is Uganda different from other countries. Did you expect all Ugandan voters to vote for you? Is there a country where that happens?
Mr. President, you spent many years fighting for freedom. You have been in leadership for over 40 years. The country is walking on the roadmap you set in motion when you took over power by the gun in 1986, which resulted in the 1995 Constitution of Uganda that came into effect under your leadership.
Mr. President, you were born Ugandan, like the citizens now living in fear, prison, or exile. Uganda is our only country. We did not choose to be born in Uganda, but we must live in our motherland.
I write to you as a citizen addressing a leader entrusted with immense power and responsibility. You control the army, the police, the Electoral Commission, and state institutions. With that control comes responsibility.
Please put our house (Uganda) in order by:
1. Exercising your authority as President of Uganda to restore the rule of law so that Ugandans can live without fear.
2. Exercising your authority as Commander-in-Chief to stop abuses by security forces and ensure all state institutions act within the law.
3. Allowing all citizens and political actors to exercise their constitutional rights without fear.
4. Returning the country to constitutional governance, where courts function independently, political activity is lawful, and citizens are not punished, exiled, imprisoned, or silenced for their political views.
5. Stop labeling political opponents and their supporters as terrorists or as confused.
6. Stop the violence and the killings. As Commander-in-Chief, you must ensure that all suspects are handled through lawful arrest and tried before competent courts, not executed by security forces.
7. Stop the abductions of opposition leaders.
8. Stop terrorizing Ugandans who support other political parties.
9. Stop the siege on your political rivals’ homes.
10. Stop labeling political opponents as terrorists.
Uganda deserves dignity.
Uganda deserves justice.
Uganda deserves peace.
FOR GOD AND MY COUNTRY.
Respectfully,
Justice Dr. Esther Kitimbo Kisaakye.
Former Justice of the Supreme Court of Uganda.
January 25, 2026
“The Mission noted that the elections were conducted within a political context marked by electoral competition polarised along regional lines. Also, the Mission was briefed on the involvement of military in the electoral process contrary to the Ugandan 1995 Constitution which prohibits the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) from engaging in electoral processes. Furthermore, the internet shut down implemented two days before the elections limited access to information, freedom of association, curtailed economic activities and further disrupted effective observation by the AU-COMESA-IGAD EOM. It also created suspicion and mistrust on the electoral process” (The African Union – Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development – Election Observation Mission – Preliminary Statement to the Republic of Uganda 15 January 2026 General Elections, 17.01.2026).
Lack of trust is just the beginning. Former Nigerian President Jonathan Goodluck is vague, but his deliberate. For the African Union, COMESA and IGAD to jointly produce this Preliminary Report and state these things are rare. It is really stating the worsening of affairs and lack of free and fair elections. The charade and forgery of results will haunt the 12th Parliament and this Presidency. They all know it and the EOM cannot shade away from it either. This is the second time… the AU is doing this and last time was with the recent election in the United Republic of Tanzania. So, things are happening…
“While the electoral campaign was relatively peaceful compared to 2021 elections, the Mission received reports that the campaign period was marred by reports of intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and excessive use of force, particularly targeting opposition candidates and supporters, civil society actors and journalists. Security forces deployed tear gas, water cannons, and, in some instances, live ammunition to disperse opposition rallies resulting in injuries and fatalities. Whilst several candidates were able to campaign with relatively fewer obstructions, the main opposition candidate informed the Mission that their campaign venues, pre-booked accommodation were blocked and were denied access to both public and private media. The Mission further received concerns regarding vote buying and candidate bribery in the form of cash, goods or other material benefits” (The African Union – Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development – Election Observation Mission – Preliminary Statement to the Republic of Uganda 15 January 2026 General Elections, 17.01.2026).
It’s really telling when the EOM must write this paragraph. They are stating the obvious and it shows what sort of environment this election was held. This is showing the true dire situation and what the state is willing to do. They are showing the viciousness and the usage of violence to get their way. That’s what the EOM is telling, and they are not even trying to conceal it either. It is refreshing of AU, and other multi-national organizations are saying this, but they are not stating how far and how wide the scope of the army or law enforcement was during these elections. Which would have made a much worse language and show the true nature of authorities and what they are willing to do to get their way.
“Despite previous assurances by the Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) of continued internet availability throughout the electoral period, the Mission noted with concern that two days before the election the UCC shut down the internet. The action affected citizens right to access information, infringed freedom of expression and even affected the effectiveness of the AU-COMESA-IGAD EOM. The Mission understands the critical role of internet in facilitating media houses to obtain and disseminate information” (The African Union – Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development – Election Observation Mission – Preliminary Statement to the Republic of Uganda 15 January 2026 General Elections, 17.01.2026).
This paragraph just had to happen, but everyone who follows the Republic knew they would do it. Not like the President, the State House or anyone in power would allow the virality of the rigging or the misuse of force against civilians in the days of the polls or counting for that matter. Neither would the state want the people and the international community to see the open pre-ticking of ballot, forcing people to vote for the President and whatever tricks it used to “win”. We all know it and that’s why they made an internet blackout in the days ahead of polls and after during the announcements of results. Therefore, this deliberate action was done with intent and with impunity. Because the regime cannot handle the truth or be called out for their misdeeds.
“The Mission was informed about the recruitment of additional police constables and the collaboration with other security agencies for the 2026 General Elections. Stakeholders expressed concerns over the ultra-vires order issued by the Chief of the Defence Forces, later endorsed by the EC Chairperson and the Inspector General of Police for voters to immediately leave the polling station after voting, contrary to the provision of the law that allows voters to remain beyond the 20-metre radius of the polling table after voting. The Mission observed that the order raises voters and stakeholders’ suspicion on the transparency of the voting, closing and counting of results at polling stations. Reports of intimidation, arrests and abductions of opposition leaders, candidates, supporters, media and civil society actors by the security forces instilled fear and eroded public trust in the electoral process” (The African Union – Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development – Election Observation Mission – Preliminary Statement to the Republic of Uganda 15 January 2026 General Elections, 17.01.2026).
For a republic where the Army has taken part in everything from pageants to illegal fishing. They just had to partake and involve themselves in the General Elections. That was meant to be and this because the regime only trusts the guns. The army and law enforcement is the last reason for the longevity of the regime. It isn’t because the President or the National Resistance Movement (NRM) is popular. They need the bullets, the fear and intimidations of the public. The usage of soldiers and police officers wasn’t there to secure the people but save the ones who has gains to protect. The rest can just suffer and be punished for daring to challenge that little elite looting and pillaging the Republic for their own benefit. That’s what they have and we all know it.
This AU-COMESA-IGAD Preliminary Report states the obvious and isn’t trying to forge a narrative. They aren’t there just to vouch for the election and say it was free and fair. I have been enough previous reports saying there was some mistakes, but they tried to hold elections. However, this one isn’t just saying that, but the ones in power won’t reflect much on this. As this address the misgivings and the impunity of the state to “win”. Peace.
The realities should hit the grounds running. That the certain parties are losing edge and the fragmentation of the opposition is just weakening it. This is a gift to the National Resistance Movement, as the NRM gets independents to strengthen their majority and easily sway in Parliament. This is a well known strategy and will be seen again in the 12th Parliament too.
The newly minted parties or rebrand of older ones, the Democratic Front, the Common Man’s Party and Ecological Party has gone nowhere. They had a lot of flair, bravado and known names to spread the word, but they haven’t gotten any hold either.
It isn’t like ageing parties of the Conservative Party or the Justice Forum (JEEMA) has gotten anywhere either. These parties has just been outplayed and lost their vision. It is like they aren’t all there and just trying to cling onto something that isn’t there.
Seeing how the newcomers couldn’t launch anything or become substantial is telling. Especially after the high rise of National Unity Platform in the last election. Though the Patriotic Front for Freedom (PFF) have gotten a small mandate and a few MPs after the launch. We aren’t seeing much from Alliance of National Transformation (ANT) either. It just shows where this tale is going. Yes, ANT has one MP in Parliament, but he ran as an Independent. Other left ANT and became elected as NUP MP like Mwiru. Therefore, things are really telling.
We know there will sad faces and people are in awe on some who has fallen out of favours. There are the ones that mocked the population and maybe got arrogant over years in office. These has just lost favours and the public believes in new blood. That’s from opposition leaders that has cried out over the longevity of Museveni, but they themselves asks for re-election after every term. So, this was bound to go there and others was journey-men who totally fall flat.
We that people who have stayed in Parliament for 15 years should have left a legacy behind and been ready for someone else’s turn. However, most of these people were greedy for more and didn’t want to let go. The public however didn’t see it that way and that’s why they are gone. They also remembered for what they did and the last remaining actions of their term. It isn’t like people will kindly on Mathias Mpuuga or Abed Bwanika. Neither is there any love lost in the actions of Asuman Basalirwa. They have all created this scenario and got punished for it.
This just shows that showing up on NBS Television and making headlines can take you nowhere. That all publicity isn’t good publicity. No, this just shows that people listen and they act upon it. They see what they are doing and acknowledging it. That’s why MPs are losing seats and the incumbents aren’t able to get re-elected. Even if they have the name, the status, the prestige and even the bank-account to run a smooth operation. However, in the grand scheme of things… that doesn’t help all the way to the hearts of the people.
This election really showed it and it’s compelling really. These parties, if they were viable and had good candidates. They should have taken a bigger slice of the Parliament. Especially the ones that was launched with such flair and spectacle. You would think Democratic Front would be the next thing coming, but it was all hot-air. Neither was PFF and ANT able to take place of FDC either. It is just compelling really. The independents will be the third biggest party after NRM and NUP. That’s the gist of things at this time. It is telling and the control that NRM has because of it.
This is fracturing and demolishing the opposition, bit by bit, which is what Museveni wants. This fragmentation and weakening of it. Just gives him leverage and ability to compromise more people, because elections costs and everyone knows how it. That’s why he can corrupt them and consolidate power this way. Peace.
Let’s just be clear, as we are in the humble year of 2026 and there is a lot of water under the bridge since January 1986. A man who wanted to be a legend, a living legend and a hero. A man who sought out the approval and the popularity to become the head of the state. That man has thwarted everything in his quest to stay in office.
General or President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni will be remembered as the villain. The man who said everything right and knew the right path, but chose another one. This man has said everything that a man should and seemed like the real deal. However, he betrayed all those promises, pledges and ideals over the years.
Today he was proclaimed the victor of his seventh election. That’s why the official 7th Term, but I am saying his on his 9th. As the official terms doesn’t count the lost decade of 1986 to 1996 when he suspended elections and issued in the Movement System. So, please be advised and don’t delete those years from his years in office. That’s only making sense.
The supposed liberation hero and bush-war veteran. The one that came to save nation from brutes and savagery. Well, his is a brute and a savage himself. He don’t mind spilling blood or tarnishing people’s lives. No, he bashes in it and the high command must be ordering it. As we are seeing scores of people abducted, kidnapped and kept incommunicado. Neither are we seeing the rule of law, the constitutional order or an independent judiciary. No, every part of state is weaponized against the dissidents and the ones who dares to challenge his reign. Alas, that’s why he isn’t liberating the nation or giving the people freedom.
That’s why this recent election just proves his lack of honour, bravery or even honesty. All of that is lost and his handlers cannot see it. They are all jaded by power and arrogance, thinking we don’t know or don’t see. Like why are they so rampant and so organized in the distressing aspects of electioneering?
That’s because Museveni cannot win sincerely. Everyone know this and his not a man of the people. This was showed by the show-casing of public display on the roadside in Mpigi. Where they couldn’t even shoulder the blame and had to make up excuses after His Excellency created traffic jams and let people stay in queues for hours because he spoke for a bit with random civilians. Seriously, that’s the arrogant behaviour in coordination with blocking his main competitor from having processions and venues too.
The regime that his operating is doing everything he claimed his predecessors was doing. He has said what the government does to peasants is why it shouldn’t be there. That’s why the old man knows what is righteous, but he rules as a villain. He knows what is good, but accepts to serve people evil. This is the gist of things…
The usage of force, enforcing dangerous tactics and strategies, misusing power and lethal acts towards unarmed civilians. That’s what his doing and he don’t mind being the demise of innocent civilians, as long as his prospers … and he wants all the glory for his ancient victories. This man wants to be remembered as the tyrant and the dictator.
He came as a man who pledged to be a liberator, but instead became an oppressor. Peace.
“Last night was very difficult at our home in Magere. The military and police raided us. They switched off power and cut off some of our CCTV cameras. There were helicopters hovering over. I want to confirm that I managed to escape from them. Currently, I am not at home, although my wife and other family members remain under house arrest. I know that these criminals are looking for me everywhere, and I am trying my best to keep safe. I understand that there has been great concern and speculation regarding my whereabouts. Please understand this is the context of a nationwide internet shutdown. Given the commotion that happened at our house at night, and given that no one is allowed to access the house, our neighbours concluded that they had succeeded in abducting us and spread the news. I reiterate our COMPLETE REJECTION of the fake results Byabakama is reading. In addition to the ballot stuffing, the military take-over of the election, the detention of our leaders and polling officials, and other electoral offences, their results have zero backing! We condemn the murder of numerous citizens who have thus far attempted to peacefully demonstrate against the broad daylight thuggery. The people of Uganda have the right to protest in defence of their sovereign right to determine a government of their choice – not the kind of criminality we’re witnessing. Aside from the blatant theft of the presidential election, these criminals have employed various fraudulent techniques to usurp the will of the people in numerous constituencies across the country. NUP candidates are being targeted – even when they have 100% evidence that they won. This is absolute madness. The PEOPLE OF UGANDA WILL ULTIMATELY WIN” (Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine, 17.01.2026).
The main competition against the incumbent and President for Life, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni are now in hiding. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine has been able to leave to his residence in Magere, Wakiso District and is hiding elsewhere. He was able robadoba style to get away from the authorities.
The authorities and the state had already put his house under siege. They had practically house-arrested and his family. That has been customary by the authorities and the state for over a decade now. This is what they do to their main opponents and the one they fear can unleash either a revolution or an uprising. That’s why they want to keep a man like Bobi Wine behind bars and silence him. Because the next few months are critical and important. They know it and he knows it.
Bobi Wine is in danger and so everyone associated with him. That’s why so many are behind bars, abducted, kept in prison and taken away before the polls, during the polls and after the polls too. The state acts like we don’t know, but we know there is plenty of people captured, taken and in custody across the Republic. Bobi Wine would only be the next and one who would suffer plentiful too.
These atrocities and impunity is done on the orders of the high command. We all know why it is going down. This isn’t a secret and the ones in power are using the state and the law enforcement to silence dissent. That’s why Bobi Wine is on the run. Because he knows the fate that awaits. He has been here before and would most likely face the tribulations of treason charges and long incarceration without any bail in sight. That’s what is happening and he got nowhere to go from there. This is it and that’s the legacy of Museveni.
It is who Museveni and his kind is. They are doing this to people and they think it is righteous. When it is just brutal misuse of power and the continuation of oppression against unarmed civilians. There is no justice in this and everyone should be aware of it. Peace.
MinBane 