Well, it is a hard bargain to ask this question, if the international community, the troika, United Nations, European Union and United States; Did they in an combined effort legitimize the Transitional Military Council with their 5 July 2019 Agreement with the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC)?
Because, everyone has jumped on the bandwagon and praised the deal as an effort to get peace and stability. But what sort of peace and stability will it be? Will the NISS and RSF still be in the streets to create fear and intimidation for the citizens? Will the generals and warlords of the TMC really respect the civilians in the Sovereign Council or are they just stalling for time?
I do not have the answers and do not intend to have them either. I am just wondering if this was happening to fast. As I saw even the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) saluting the agreement. IGAD and African Union all joined the league of favourable partners like the TMC and FFC had to get it done. So, that the Ethiopian and AU Joint Mediation looked good or something. Because, they couldn’t loose now and see more demonstrations.
This is all post National Congress Party (NCP) and Post- Al-Bashir, alas, even as the henchmen of him is lingering around in the TMC and is most likely in corridors of power as long as the three year and 6 months transitional period is lingering on. This is all done in an effort to stop the demonstrations and protest only to get things to go back to “normal”. Whatever that means and at what cost.
We can wonder if the NCP and TMC plans to hijack the process, ensure the most juicy parts of the Sovereign Council, take the parts where they are initially in control and give minor positions to FFC to ensure stability. This all being done in backdoor deals and negotiations, as they don’t really intend to proceed to civilian rule. They are just using the three years and 6 months to buy time and hope international community forgets it all and continues to buy their petroleum. Don’t be amazed if that is the trick of the current arrangement.
Don’t expect the United Nations Experts to cry havoc for long, the IGAD are working for their member states, not challenging them. The AU will only make a fuzz, but not directly support regime change. Unless, the donors of the AU and AU Commission pushes it in that direction. The EU will support the Sudanese regime as long as it stops the refugee flood passing through the borders of the Republic. That it will do at any cost and the US will continue to support it, as long as they trade oil with them. This is just the way the world operates, and the Russians will be happy to trade military hardware and mercenaries to eager foreign currency into their Federation.
Therefore, was the world to quick to assess and scream of joy over the Peace Agreement between the two parties, making the TMC a friendly associate, whose still has the upper-hand but really not given up much after a massacre and continued oppression of the public. Because, the lack of internet, electricity and masses silenced by NISS/RSF continues. The case is still open to see a practical change in ways to operate from the TMC.
Maybe the TMC got the get-go from Saudi Arabia and therefore, just let it go. So, that they can do their ills in silence and have less public scrutiny, because they made a deal. Then, the NGOs and the UN will not be as persistent on their tail. They can run around with their bad acts and no one will act upon it. Only a few minor actors, but they cannot really change anything.
The TMC got legitimized, maybe to quickly for comfort… Who knows, maybe I am wrong. I hope I am, but these tend to trickle down with time. Peace.